Elemental Mafia- Game Over!

[armlx]

Korlash, I think you are out guessing your own guesses at this point.

[Korlash]

I do that often. Doesn't make me wrong though. ;P

[armlx]

It makes you just as likely to be right as someone playing on a random level of thought. You are thinking levels of outhinking beyond most people in the game and most likely the majority of the cults, to the extent your logic, while right, is not an optimal predictor of peoples actions.

[Macavenger]

Sigh.

I am less than entirely enthusiastic about the kabenon wagon, honestly, but I do see the case against him, and I don't see any potential to try to figure out and start a different wagon before deadline.

Vote: Kabenon007

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[Korlash]

... i'm thinking the outthinking of thinking of think...ingness...

I'll tell you what I do think. I think if the cults are smart we will have two deaths tonight. I think the recruiters will have now have at least a small fear of quick joining wagons in the future. I think my theory has the same chance of hitting cult as the "Vote: person who got peviously random voted to form a wagon" plan.

Oh right, and I think you, Elvis, and Muerrto all need to be lynched tomorrow. But We'll see how that goes.

And BTW, to the recruiters that decide to kill... try this list... It will save us all time tomorrow. just throwig that out there...

[armlx]

You are setting up a prisoner's dilemma where the right play is to kill if you think everyone else will and recruit if everyone else kills. Add to that the fact a successful recruit is infinitely more +EV then a kill and I doubt you will get these results.

[Korlash]

There you go again... simplicity my friend. Your talking to a complete idiot here...

The setup says two cults will kill tongiht and two will recruit. Whether the recruiter's see this or not is their problem. The night actions at this point do not depend on what the other's are or are not doing.

secondly, a successful recruit may be the most damning thing to a cult at this point. While a kill may be the most helpful. added to the fact, killing another recruiter is far more rewarding as the game progresses then builing your cult early, theoretically I wouldn't be surprised if all 4 cults tried to kill tonight.

My theory expanded into night actions a while ago, but that is very unhelpful to me unless i try and use the cult's actions to our advantage. The only way I see that is if we kill off our best lynch candidates tongiht to save time tomorrow.

Still, I shouldnt go too far into it. I mean if a recruiter is too stupid to see what his/her obvious move is tonight, why the hell should I tell them. The only reason I bring it up is so our power roles can have a stating point for what to expect. Hell, all four cults may choose to recruit tonight. Kudos for us I say. Odds will favor at least one culist being lynched tomorrow!

[armlx]

Meh, speculation on this has gone to far, I'm still confused on your logic as to what incentive the cults have to help each other out and how you can direct them.

[Korlash]

Help each other out? What? When did I say that?

[armlx]

Its what you are implying by having 2 kill and 2 recruit so the most anti-town progress is made.

[Lowell]

What's hilarious about the number of town lynched is THERE ISN'T EVEN A SCUM FACTION directing lynches.

That said,

vote kaben

, I still say the more lynches the better.

[armlx]

Lowell is a good lynch for tomorrow for similar reasons to Kabenon.

[Korlash]

First point, Armlx. The cults aren't working together by two killing, and two recruiting. So the comment you made about that still seems unfounded to me. And I'm not saying any two cults should kill, I'm letting you know that two specific cults will kill if they understand how this game is set up, while the other two specific cults will recruit if they understand the setup as well. Now like you said, i can't speak for what other player's think/will do so none of this is set in stone. however, if a player had to choose between a gold coin and an apple, instead of thinking 50% chance, you have think abotu what the player chooseing most needs. A hungry man will take the apple, while a well fed man will pick the coin. (And don't give me any lip about being able to buy an apple with the coin, this is a hypothertical example =/) Using this principal, I conclude it is in two cults best interests to kill, so they will. And so our powerroles should excpect this and think abotu it tonight when concidering their actions.

What's hilarious about the number of town lynched is THERE ISN'T EVEN A SCUM FACTION directing lynches.

Wrong. There are 4. A simple outline will explain it I think. But I don't have the time. Just understand that it is very likely all 5 factions (If you cont town as a faction itself) are all after the same thing(possibly) and so all 5 factions will unintentionally work together to acomplish their common goal. each player can have his/her own views on this situation I suppose. That is simply how I see it. No lynch thus far could have happened without some help from one of the cults.

Law of probability + human nature = at least one cult on every wagon (minimum)

That is a fundamental reason why I am suspicious of the people on multiple wagons.

[armlx]

They are Korlash. Again, prisoner's dilemma or the John Nash thing: What is best for the group is not best for individuals. The cults with recruits are far ahead in an end game scenario compared to those without them.

I fail to see this difference you are making between cults. If its regarding xtoxm, its even more WIFOM as their kills cancel.

[armlx]

Err, by Wifom I mean prisoner's dilemma. If both kill, they lose, if both recruit its ok for both, if 1 kills and other recruits its +EV for both but more for the recruiting cult.

[Korlash]

Ah but here is where self preservation comes in. The two cults who msut kill, must kill to save themselves, while the two with nothing to worry abotu are able to recruit and, well... not worry about it. Their predicament comes down to, do I recruit or try to kill another recruter? So in theory theymay kill to, but as you say recruiting is better for endgame, so it is more likely they will do that.

I have no idea what you mean by Xtoxm. Perhaps it's somthing I missed...

[Lowell]

You folks are thinking way too much about the setup. Let's just kill people already.

[Korlash]

And that is why so many town are dead... =/

[Muerrto]

Oh right, and I think you, Elvis, and Muerrto all need to be lynched tomorrow. But We'll see how that goes.

QFT thank you.

But for now we lynch the current cult. Am I 100% sure of Kabenon? No. But we have to have a lynch before deadline.

Vote: Kabenon

[armlx]

2 more, 19 hours.....

[mneme]

Am I missing something? If there isn't any compelling reason not to, I think we have to lynch Korlash -- discussing scum strategy in public in this kind of game favors scum -far- more than it favors town.

FOS: Korlash

[Erg0]

I'd like to see a claim from kabenon at this point.

[dahill1]

"Trying to Make the Deadline!" Vote Count

(7) Kabenon: (Cavebear, Erg0, Korlash, Armlx, Macavenger, Lowell, Muerrto)

(2) Xtoxm: (Pooky, Farside)
(1) Armlx: (DGB)
(1) Muerrto: (Kison)
(6) Not voting: (DR, Xtoxm, Elvis Knits, Kabenon, Andycyca, Mneme)

Kabenon is now at L-2.

17 players alive, means 9 votes to lynch.

[Xtoxm]

I also don't like that Ergo is so against Ooba's lynch that he's posted but not voted. Wasting our lynch and leaving a recruitable townie alive is better than lynching a possible vanilla? I think not. Same goes for Korlash.

I agree, all I saw that boil down to was wasting time.

vote kabenon

.

[Korlash]

Am I missing something? If there isn't any compelling reason not to, I think we have to lynch Korlash -- discussing scum strategy in public in this kind of game favors scum -far- more than it favors town.

Then you missed the point entirely.

I agree, all I saw that boil down to was wasting time.

right... so the outcome of that "wasting time" is being able to squeeze this lynch in too... cool... I'll remember that tomorrow...