Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

[Joubert]

How likely is the possibility of having no Vig at all?
Can a Vig kill and be killed during the same Night?

[aioqwe]

Aioqwe, the problem is that if we lynch tonight, theres a 99.9% chance that i'm going to get NK tonight unless by some fluke and there is a very good chance that one of the scum factions will win. So lynching yourself is not the best idea.

If you are going to vig me tonight thent the town won't win (which is what it sounds like). If we lynch me today, you will vig between 2 people who are scum. The scum are left between killing the other scum or you leading to wifom/prisoner's delima scenarios.

[aioqwe]

Vig can kill/be killed in one night... theoretically

[SensFan]

Actually, after thinking it through, I don't think it matter whether the Vig shoots or not...

[aioqwe]

It might on the off-chance that one of the mafia forgets to shoot.

[thinktank]

I dont think aioqwe's logic makes sense. If we lynch scum today then there will most likely be one scum and one townie. So I have a 50/50 of hitting scum and winning it for town, if i choose not to kill then its a tie for the town and one scum group. However, if we lynch aioqwe and he turns out town, then i know the identity of the two remaining scum and NK one of them. Then we end up in a prisoner's dilemma, in which the scum must decide to NK me or the other faction, if they either one of them decides to NK me and the other doesnt, then the other scum faction wins, if they both NK me then town loses, however if they cross kill, then we win. In this scenario, the town only has a 33% chance of victory while in the other scenario there is a 50% chance of victory.

The problem lies in the fact that we don't know if aioqwe is scum or town because neither is necessarily true until its too late ofcourse. So do we lynch him based on the assumption that hes town, and should he come up scum then the town is in an alright position. Or do we lynch someone else and then there is the difficult decision that I have to make whether aioqwe is scum or town...

[aioqwe]

Not all 3 cases are identical. Bare statistics:
25% cross-kill
25% both killing you
50% 1 cross-kill and 1 targets you

-OR-

50% chance that you vig the correct person tonight if we hit a scumbag with a lynch.

However, no offense, but your performance thus far as vig hasn't been stellar.

-Working under the premise that I am actually town (basically my perspective of the game)-
I get the general feeling that you are leaning to me being scum. Thus, if we were left to night with you (vig), scum and me, town would loose (you shoot me, scum shoots you).
-If you don't let yourself be persuaded and act on say a coin flip then we have a 50% chance of winning.
-If you let your reasoning drive you (and your reasoning follows the above) then we have 0% chance of winning.

Which is why I am offering to lynch myself so that we go into the 1st scenarion. It isn't as desirable as a 50/50 kill because looking at motives, the best option is to target the vig. The vig is making kill that they can't alter but IF the scum A is chosen then scum B wins. Furthermore, there is no "punishment" if they both kill you.

However, if I were you, I would announce something along the lines of, "I won't shoot tonight" effectively putting ourselves at 1/1/1 which causes wifom games for scum. This causes another wifom on top of is he actually going to abide by his statement.

If you promise me to go ahead do a coin flip to decide who you kill tonight, we can proceed to lynch "scum". Otherwise, I am lynching myself.

[SensFan]

Am I the only one thinking there might not actually be a Vig?

[thinktank]

Not all 3 cases are identical. Bare statistics:
25% cross-kill
25% both killing you
50% 1 cross-kill and 1 targets you

-OR-

50% chance that you vig the correct person tonight if we hit a scumbag with a lynch.

However, no offense, but your performance thus far as vig hasn't been stellar.

-Working under the premise that I am actually town (basically my perspective of the game)-
I get the general feeling that you are leaning to me being scum. Thus, if we were left to night with you (vig), scum and me, town would loose (you shoot me, scum shoots you).
-If you don't let yourself be persuaded and act on say a coin flip then we have a 50% chance of winning.
-If you let your reasoning drive you (and your reasoning follows the above) then we have 0% chance of winning.

Which is why I am offering to lynch myself so that we go into the 1st scenarion. It isn't as desirable as a 50/50 kill because looking at motives, the best option is to target the vig. The vig is making kill that they can't alter but IF the scum A is chosen then scum B wins. Furthermore, there is no "punishment" if they both kill you.

However, if I were you, I would announce something along the lines of, "I won't shoot tonight" effectively putting ourselves at 1/1/1 which causes wifom games for scum. This causes another wifom on top of is he actually going to abide by his statement.

If you promise me to go ahead do a coin flip to decide who you kill tonight, we can proceed to lynch "scum". Otherwise, I am lynching myself.

I know I've been a terrible vig, which is why I didn't kill last night. During this night I was going to do a random integer generator or a coin flip to determine who will get NKed because yea I agree that my intuition has been pretty wrong thus far. And btw I'm not leaning towards you being scum, Im equally suspicious right now of all 3 of the other players. It sounds plausible for me to not kill tonight if we lynch town because like you said if the factions want to win then they must kill me and hope I kill the other, or kill the other and hope the other kills me or they could play for the tie if they both kill me.

[aioqwe]

Am I the only one thinking there might not actually be a Vig?

The kills make sense coming from a vig. I was pretty firm in my belief that TT is not the vig, however, there is only one claim. If you or anyone is attempting to insinuate that they are the vig and TT is fake claiming, speak up.

Okay, aside from his general lurkish behavior, I think it is specifically noteworthy that Jour is posting so little right now. Right now, our townie should be trying to convince the vig who is who, yet he's quieter than a plant.

More coming later.

[SensFan]

Meh.

As Town, I have no reason to lie about my role. As Scum, I would have to be stupid to claim Vig last. Then, even if I can get the real one lynched, I am 100% guaranteed to be shot by the other Scum, meaning I lose no matter what.

Therefore, I doubt any of the 3 of us will 'switch' our claims here.

[aioqwe]

I dunno, the last post just sounded like you were the vig, but was hiding. I don't think we need any secrets now...

[thinktank]

I am the vig. Believe it or not, but we have a deadline fast approaching so we need to come up with a game plan fast.

[pete d]

There is exactly 73 hours before deadline hits, as of this post.

[aioqwe]

vote: Jourb

@TT: If we still have a scum left, flip a coin or just shoot Sensfan.

[pete d]

25 hours

[Joubert]

In other words, kill anyone except Aioqwe... Sounds strange enough...

Vote: Aioqwe

[aioqwe]

Yup, from a scum's perspective

[Joubert]

This is too easy, Aioqwe... I thought you would be more cautious than that...

Actually, you're the only one who did not cast any doubt about the presence of a Vig at all in the current situation. And supposing ThinkTank is the Vig makes you look more Townish as you can "deduce" that the remaining players are very likely Scum. What seems to work in your eye is the opposite in the other's eye...

[SensFan]

Meh, I'll

Vote: Joubert

, since he has used falselogic all day.

[aioqwe]

Uh what? Jourb makes no sense. The vig is what explains the "kicked out of the casino" night kill scene. TT is the only person to have claimed vig. Therefore, he is most likely a vig.

Second, as a town in this scenario, one should try and convince the vig that they are town and the two other people who claimed town are actually scum. Perhaps some of my logic is weak that I am presenting some of the evidence from my perspective. Regardless, that doesn't necessarily make me scum.

TT, get on here before the day ends and lynch Jourb.

[thinktank]

Alright, we'll Lets hope this works out for the best and a someone lynch is better than a no lynch, so sry Joubert, here's hoping you're scum:

Vote: Joubert

[pete d]

Day 4 Final Votecount

Joubert (3): aioqwe, SensFan, thinktank
aioqwe (1): Joubert

After much squabbling, the guests suddenly notice that the sun is beginning to set. As the shadows lengthen, they hurriedly come to the consensus that Joubert should be cast out. Surprisingly, trashing him on myspace doesn't do much, so the guests resort to using him as a makeshift pinata. As Joubert is battered by a bunch of blindfolded kids with golf clubs. Soon enough, he is reduced to a scattered pile of golden straw.

Joubert, Scarecrow Godfather, lynched day 4

It is now Night 4. Get your choices in.

[pete d]

As aioqwe and SensFan retire to their own rooms, thinktank instead sneaks over to the front desk. It appears that he has some unfinished business. "So, you understand?" he whispers hurriedly to the young man behind the counter, "I want this person gone!"
There is a long silence, before the young man speaks up: "Sir, you do know that this is a McDonalds... Do you want to buy anything?"
"Hmmm... What kind of toy is in the happy meal?"
"We have Snoopy or a matchbox car"
"Dammit! I hate Snoopy!... I'll just have a burger thanks."

Sometime later, thinktank places a call to the front desk of the casino. "So, you understand?" he says between mouthfuls of food, "I want this person gone!"
"Yes Sir, I understand."
"By the way, did you want anything from McDonalds?"
"Ummm... Do they have any of those Snoopy happy meals?"
....
"Get back to work!"

On arriving back at the casino, thinktank returns to his penthouse suite. However, his journey is interrupted when a very large tiger jumps out from his closet.
"Oh, hello nice kitty! Do you want some milk?"
"RAWR!!!"
The tiger tears him to pieces, before cleaning itself for 5 hours.

thinktank, Owner of the Casino, Vigilante, Torn to pieces Night 4

Sometime later, casino security storms into one of the guest's rooms. "Mr thinktank said he don't want you round here no more!" they explain.

aioqwe looks shocked. "Surely there must be some sort of *burp* mistake?"
"Get out, or we'll hurt you real bad!"
"Ok, ok, thank you very much, I'll leave quietly. Just don't step on my blue suede shoes."

aioqwe, Elvis Impersonator, 1-shot Commuter, Kicked out of the Casino Night 4

"Hey!" one of the guards says, "The minibar is completely empty! Dammit!"

Alone in the penthouse, SensFan decides that it's time for a nap. As the first rays of dawn begin petering through the window, he slinks over to a patch of sunlight and falls asleep.

SensFan, Roy-come-tiger, Tiger GodFather and Battle Mage, Sigfried-come-tiger, Tiger RoleBlocker, win!

Coming up: Role PMs, Night choices.

[thinktank]

Ach! no! Well good game all. Sorry for being such a terrible vig......