Thespival Mafia (Denouement)

[mathcam]

I'm still happy with my vote. While I'm not sure I can say I have a fantastic read on Beep one way or the other, I

really

feel like I have a read on CKD faking that post about Beep being DGB.

If I had a second choice, it would be MGIA.

Cam

[petroleumjelly]

Side note: things to note from MoS's posts. [I'm still doing my isolated reread right now].

Personally, I assumed the same thing he did, that tyhess [now MGIA] was either town or cult. If he was mafia, that seems way too overpowered, so I never considered it a possibility.

^ [now MGIA] was inserted by me. I will need to think about how sincerely this statement was made.

He only mentions three instances where people looked more protown than they otherwise would:

1.)

I think RossWilliam is making some rookie mistakes, but I think they are

protown

rookie mistakes. At least he's being honest with his thoughts, even when they don't make sense.

2.)

farside, sadly enough, Beep! Beep! always plays like this. She's a natural Jester. Gives BM's title a run for its money, even. Thing is, though, I think she might act differently if she WAS a jester. I have a pretty good read on her when she's antitown. I've nailed her a couple times as scum, and I've been scum with her in a couple games as well. This doesn't seem like her as scum.

3.)

Personally, I would have been inclined to think you might have been mafia claiming jester, but retracting your claim makes me think it's less likely.

^ This last quote refers to tyhess' Jester claim and subsequent withdrawal.

I'll have to think on this, but chances are night will hit before I come to any conclusions, but my impression of MoS leads me to think MoS-scum is much more likely to call townspeople town (to make them feel all squishy and like he has their back) than his own scum-partners. This is not to say he would not call a scumpartner town-looking, just that I believe he is far more inclined to do so for actual townspeople. Following this logic would lead me to think both MGIA and BB! are town (which I am in no way convinced about). Thoughts on this would be appreciated.

However, one thing does pique my curiosity: DGB, what games have you been scum with MoS in?

[petroleumjelly]

Note: My post will be assuming a single scum group. I can't be bothered to think about competing scum-groups right now.

Players (besides myself) I will not lynch today:

1.)

hasdgfas (obvious reasons)

2.)

Mizzy [AmeliaSlay / Quickben]

I think Mizzy is fairly likely to be town based solely off of AmeliaSlay's posts. Not much detail I can go into, but she asked probing questions, attacked CKD about his claim in a strange way (on a false piece of information – the correction of which did not "help" CKD, so it would be a weak way to distance). Biggest wonder is the attacking of MeMe's plan (which MoS-scum also did), but her points were legit. Instead of claiming MeMe "saw the flaws in the plan" like MoS was pushing, AmeliaSlay instead pushed that MeMe was trying to push discussion towards Jester-hunting over scum-hunting – a different accusation, albeit on the same person. I just feel a scum-Slay would have played more passively (this feeling coming largely from Kingmaker I, which was admittedly a very long time ago).

Thoughts on Everybody Else

1.)

MGIA [tyhess]

tyhess seemed very much to fit the profile of a newbie who was not sure how to use his role, but thought of a plan which could out the Jester (by claiming Jester). tyhess made me think this role was townish. But I have not been the least bit enamored with any of MGIA's play – especially his implied taking of my vote tonight. He claims to be "cursed with being able to see both sides of an argument", but at the same time he claims he is not even bothering to understand the arguments between myself and Beep! Beep!. Suggesting that our arguments are "improvised" is just about the most unbelievable claim I've seen in this game so far (I have seen a good deal of scum arguing with each other, but claiming BB! and I could be doing that is incredible), and claiming "separate scum factions" with only the thought that there "could be" two+ scum groups is not satisfying in the least.

I could still go for a MGIA lynch today, largely because I feel:
-->

a.)

If he is scum and we

do not

lynch him, surviving the night probably means scum win and the game ends
-->

b.)

If he is town and we lynch him, chances are the game will continue

I am

definitely

back-and-forth on MGIA, however, and the thing tugging me towards "town" is tyhess' play.

2.)

Iammars

If 'mars is scum, he is definitely playing the "Gee guys, I don't know about this..." scum without really backing up his position. In other words, he expresses doubt without actively trying to stop the 'bad things' (from his perspective) from occuring.

However, his resistance from the Farside22 lynch (as an example) seemed to largely stem from the thought that she might be the Jester – something scum would definitely have on the mind as well as some townspeople. However, he also mentions he can see 2 Docs as being plausible (given the 2-3 kills per night).

The strangest thing in his posting by far is the out-of-place attack on Battle Mage during the CKD-hasdgfas debate, and his lack of commentary on CKD except that "the two claims aren't contradictory", which he then had to "revise" because he "spent most of today thinking that CKD blocked Pooky", and then he subsequently does not give an opinion on whatsoever.

That could be indicative that he

knew

CKD had killed Pooky, and hence did not think CKD would claim to have targeted a different player to contradict hasdgfas.

I also think his reaction to Beep! Beep! and MGIA (in his very last post) looked a little bit fabricated. Also, using "this person" for both Mizzy and Holy read very weird for me. Link to that post is here. Something about his language choice rubbed me as 'wrong'.

The only dissuasions from an Iammars lynch are (a) he is absent and cannot respond, (b) CKD's attacks on him while he was going through the process of being lynched yesterday [which makes the attacks in themselves perhaps more likely to have been an attempt at distancing, since there would be little to no chance of him actually getting Iammars lynched unless he were shown to be dead and town, or hasdgfas dead and scum].

3.)

Holy

Holy's posts have insinuated that I am scum a few times now.

-->

a.)

I want the three of these players to

all comment on each other

. Pooky needs to comment on Beep! Beep! and Holy; Beep! Beep! needs to comment on Pooky and Holy; and Holy needs to comment on Beep! Beep! and Pooky.

Hmm, I don't think Pooky's attempts to trap scum looks like a scum-plan, he seemed throwing it without nothing to lose feel and hopefully feel that we might bust a sweating-scum-that-worries slipped. And with his ways when launching it, it didn't smell came from scum.
While your recent analysis, smell like it.
As for Beep!, my comments about her already all over the place, I suppose.

-->

b.)

Hm, PJ seems good at propaganda skill, lol. He might be scum, I'm not that sure. But I'm pretty sure with todays catch, farside's claim as quack in the middle of this day feels too sudden, plus her Changing Story of who were targeted/protected by her, not seems pro-town.

I would like to roll, but deadline is in ~6 days, what would we gain with voting PJ now but a sneaking scum?

She does later soften her stance on me (beginning yesterday, still there today). But I clearly am biased towards noticing when people claim to be suspicious of me.

Other than that, Holy is difficult to read. She has begun posting more only in these last couple game days, but her posts have largely been doubting CKD's claim (which I suppose speak in her favor).

The thing I like least about her posts is that she has a tendency to make comments towards people along the lines of "{Commentary}, scum." I dunno – maybe it just feels strange coming from somebody I consider to be a new player. Most of her posts do not seem like they are meant to incite anything except for those, so they seem somewhat out of place to her playstyle (which is seemingly restricted largely to weekends).

Biggest point in her favor is that she seems to eventually get around to her rereads (although frustratingly slowly). I've had scum continue to say they would "reread eventually" and never actually do so, and instead reply to the most recent posts such that they can continue to not take a holistic perspective on the game. [For those interested, that tactic has been effectively used against me at least once, the instance being Stikey-scum in Most Mountainous].

4.)

mathcam [MeMe]

MeMe has always been difficult for me to read. I've played at least four games with her to date. The first I did not really get anything about her gameplay because I lynched her with a Cop investigation on Day One when she was trying to fake a posting restriction (so she couldn't effectively argue with me). The second game I never really got a read on her either way, but sort of just left her alone – she was town. The third game was very similar to the second – never really got a read on her, and she was town.

. The fourth game I replaced in on Day Two, and we were both scum – but she was lynched the day I replaced in from a Cop investigation, so there was really nothing "scummy" for me to be catching in her posts to begin with except for possibly Day One, which were pretty much consistent-looking to me with her town play in all of the other games.

The same seems to apply to this game. Her play seems consistent with her play in other games. But consistency does not a town-MeMe make (nor a scum-MeMe make). MeMe did (however) seem much more "playful" this game than all of the other games. She also seemed slightly less organized than usual, which I do not think is an indicator of alignment (because she was quite organized the time I was scum with her, and appears organized when she is town as well).

There are about 2 things in her posts which make me think she is more likely to be town than scum. The first is that she suggested her plan to begin with – scum would be

very

careful about something like that, I would hope, whereas a townsperson is much more likely to air an idea to see how people respond to it. Secondly, MeMe explicitly called MoS to the thread to argue with her – I do this as town

very

often when I

know

I am right and don't want people to avoid arguing with me. Admittedly in this context if MeMe were scum she would be calling in her own scum-partner to argue with her, but I do not believe I have ever seen scum do this.

Question

: mathcam, did MeMe give you her notes for the game? If so, how well did they coincide with

your

notes?

I did not like – and

still

do not like – mathcam's refusal to answer my questions. I definitely feel that if CKD and MoS had answered them (at the very least) we would have

quite

a bit more information to go off of today. He claims to be worried about information the scum might possibly use against the town, while seemingly not considering the benefits the town gets by forcing scum to give positions, defend them, and try to remain consistent with themselves while showing a clear thought process. That tends to be my biggest method in catching scum, believe it or not.

The biggest point in mathcam's favor is clearly his CKD-attacking. But (and I am not trying to use this as WIFOM to suit my own purposes, but you can believe or disbelieve that as you wish) as scum I probably would have been

very

sure to bus CKD as effectively as possible. After a single read-through, however, it seems legit (i.e. not busing), but if we're both alive tomorrow I will definitely need to reread that portion of the game.

mathcam also mistakes me as a "her" a couple times. *sigh*

Overall, I am probably 55-45 (town-scum) on mathcam. He seems

slightly

more townish than scummish.

Edit:
I also reread MoS's attacks on MeMe's Jester-plan. The MoS-attack was not as vicious as I had remembered it to be, and he was more than willing to go after Farside22 over MeMe (and the eventual replacement mathcam). I can see this interaction as distancing. He definitely went into "corner the prey" mode with Battle Mage and Farside22, but did no such thing with MeMe (although this could clearly just be an indicator that MeMe is the most experienced of the three and would require more delicate handling). Was just checking this to see if I thought it looked like busing or a legitimate attempt at lynching / casting suspicion.

5.)

Beep! Beep!

I am very tired (2:00 am and I need to

be

at work in six hours) so I will have to hold off on this until tomorrow. Probably I'll try to do it during work. I know my last reread had me second-guessing her, but I could probably make a long list (if I wanted to expend the effort) on things she has said which feel completely contradictory to me.

[petroleumjelly]

For the moment, I am most happy with a

Vote: Iammars

. This may switch before deadline. I hate to vote a player who is absent, but he is coming off looking the scummiest from my reread (which has not yet included Beep! Beep!).

I have also asked Thesp to extend the deadline, given that we have two players who are obviously absent from the thread for the time being.

[Beep! Beep!]

However, one thing does pique my curiosity: DGB, what games have you been scum with MoS in?

I have a vague recollection of once being bus'ed early, and spectacularly. And another where he was scum, and I was town, and he spent the whole game discrediting me. Here as scum, he's done the opposite. MoS is one of these players that do not leave consistent traces as scum for the rest to interpret. If you've noticed any, I'd LOOOOOOVE to know them.

[Beep! Beep!]

I dunno PJ, I helped lynch IamMars in another game recently for reasons similar, and he was town. He's hard to read, because his schtick is to sit on the fence, remain uncommited, asking a few questions, you know, staying out of things. I'd say he's among the most skilled players at phony participation. If anything, from your description, he sounds a little more aggressive in this game. It's probably wisest to wait for a more readable replacement.

PJ, if you're not scum, I'd have to go with Holy and mathcam. MeMe/mathcam are the type of players that are not expected to make blatant scumtells. However, mathcam's reluctance to see any lynch but me today is very scummy. To me anyway. It's subtle I know, but MeMe/mathcam would only leave subtle clues.

Holy's inconsistency may be related to her not needing to find scum. At first I thought she was town, but then with every post that conviction was eroded bit by bit.

[Thesp]

The deadline is extended by 72 hours. It will not be extended again.

Deadline in ~99 hours from this post.

[hasdgfas]

why eroded?

[Beep! Beep!]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 113#950113
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 188#994188
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 963#998963
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 106#999106
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 47#1009047
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 52#1010452
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 54#1011554
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 83#1011583
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 89#1011689
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 41#1019741
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 67#1019767

[Holy]

Well, with 2 scum dead, I believe most of the populace here are townies, at least 6 vs 2 (4 anti-town to balance this game, I guess).
Plus MGIA's role and his alignment are separate things, MGIA is quite hard to read too, while his predecessor seems so noob. I just think I should be more careful with my judgment, worst scenarios might happen from here. I prefer a clearer read, considering each person motives or playstyle before I conclude. My current suspicion might be biased with the recent hot issues or my earlier surmise...
So far, Beep is my only finished reread. Still reading PJ... I'll try to allocate more time to finished the reread faster before deadline.

[mathcam]

Question: mathcam, did MeMe give you her notes for the game?

Nope.

I did not like – and still do not like – mathcam's refusal to answer my questions. I definitely feel that if CKD and MoS had answered them (at the very least) we would have quite a bit more information to go off of today.

Any lack of information from CKD and MoS comes from the fact that they did not participate adequately, not that they did not answer your specific questions. I'm certainly against inadequate participation, but I was opposed to one person being able to dictate what questions were answered.

He claims to be worried about information the scum might possibly use against the town, while seemingly not considering the benefits the town gets by forcing scum to give positions, defend them, and try to remain consistent with themselves while showing a clear thought process.

If we just insist that people participate, without making specific demands on what questions they answer, then we get the benefit of seeing what positions they choose to take,

in addition

to their methods of giving them, defending them, etc.

mathcam also mistakes me as a "her" a couple times. *sigh*

I've caught this many more times than I've let it go through...something about your avatar. My apologies, though. I'll try to be more careful.

However, mathcam's reluctance to see any lynch but me today is very scummy.

This is a pretty gross misrepresentation of my stance today. Early today I was defending you against PJ and trying to convince you not to give up on the game altogether (though on that note, this reread reminded me how contrived some of those early resignatory posts looked). I even made part of a case against PJ. In any case, I think it's fair to say that MGIA was my top target at that point. Most recently, I've just written that MGIA would be my second choice for a target today.

For that matter, reluctance to lynch outside of one's top choice for the today is just sensible. There's presumably some reason that they were the number one choice.

Cam

[Mizzy]

I'm home, reading over what I missed ASAP!

[Thesp]

Official D5 Vote Count

Note:

Cult of the Couch Members:

2 (Mr_Gnome_It_All, Beep! Beep!)

Beep! Beep! - 2

(hasdgfas, Mathcam)

Iammras - 1

(petroleumjelly)

Not Voting - 5

(

Cult of the Couch (2 votes)

, Holy, Iammars, Mizzy)

Still hunting a replacement for Iammars. Deadline in about 75 hours - a simple plurality will lynch at the deadline, using longest-held last-vote as a tie-breaker.

[Beep! Beep!]

*sigh*

I was going to switch my vote to Iammars, but I have no vote. And MGIA isn't even voting.

*sigh*

*sigh*

*sigh*

*sigh*

I loathe vote-stealing mechanics in games.

[Mr_Gnome_It_All]

if y'all wanna lynch me, go ahead. Only reason i'm here is cuz i needed a replacement in the game i'm running. and only reason i'm still here is so thesp doesn't have to find another replacement. i honestly have no interest in the outcome here.

[Beep! Beep!]

if y'all wanna lynch me, go ahead. Only reason i'm here is cuz i needed a replacement in the game i'm running. and only reason i'm still here is so thesp doesn't have to find another replacement. i honestly have no interest in the outcome here.

That's kinda dishonest to Thesp and the game he's running and the people that are in it. Do me a favor and vote for Iammars, at least. Or someone scummy. Give it a shot. Make a wild guess.

[mathcam]

Least cool post ever, MGIA. I would have expected more from you.

I have to think if there's any way a scum MGIA would make a post like that. If nothing else, that attitude certainly explains the use of this role last night.

Iammars: WHERE ARE YOU?

Cam

[Mizzy]

I agree that MGIA's last post does explain his night action...but it doesn't sit well with me and unfortunately, it's neither a scum nor town tell. What bothers me the most is that he doesn't care about the outcome and basically made the game much less fun for someone else that DOES care about the outcome (I think.)

I would prefer an Iammars lynch over a Beep lynch at this time. I read over PJ's post that goes over players and then went back and did a quick reread on 'mars, and he does come off as pretty scummy in retrospect. It would be awesome if 'mars could be replaced before deadline, but somehow I don't see that happening.

I am going to go ahead and

Vote: Iammars

though I may unvote for a replacement or with other good reasoning. I am hoping that with a tie, even though it technically does not change the deadline-auto-lynch, that it may make MGIA or Holy pick a side.

I also apologize for my lack of participation currently...playing mafia on no sleep is not an easy task and I know I have an excuse (a rather cute one) but I still feel pretty bad.

[Beep! Beep!]

Gabriel Tristan, I see in your sig. Picture???

CONGRATULATIONS GIRL, you're a mother now. You think it's good now, it just keeps getting better.

[Mizzy]

Gabriel Tristan, I see in your sig. Picture???

CONGRATULATIONS GIRL, you're a mother now. You think it's good now, it just keeps getting better.

Sorry for the out of context, everyone! However, picture for those who want to see is here: http://joudas.com/baby/DSCN3683.JPG He's my little scummer :3

[Mr_Gnome_It_All]

Just to clear something up: I did care about this until a couple pages ago. If you like I can point you to the exact post that broke my "give a damn"

[Mizzy]

Just to clear something up: I did care about this until a couple pages ago. If you like I can point you to the exact post that broke my "give a damn"

Yes, please.

[mathcam]

Let me just take a wild stab at this and guess it was a PJ post.

MGIA: Okay, I take back my harsh words, but I do think you're being a little thin-skinned about it. PJ's been calling us idiots/rocks/etc for at least three game days now, and that's nothing compared to what he's hurled at Beep.

Cam

[Holy]

I've spent all day re-reading the remaining players. And have been thinking over about their acts wholly.

Starting with PJ, overall, I like PJ when he was questioning players to get a more good read on them, I consider his reason as a pro-town move, I doubted him once when he speculating about a quack-doc role which soon followed with farside changing her story, when she 'correcting' her night choices, it only convinced me more of her as scum, which made me suspecting PJ was her buddy trying to help farside-scum to survive the lynch for another day (been thinking about it.., silly suspicion, I know..). Furthermore, PJ's frustration when he felt he doesn't have a good read on someone is another indication of him is town for me.

Mathcam, I found if his cynical tone made me felt uneasy toward him, but when reading him wholly and getting used to it, I know if he's putting good efforts in the game, he has been sound about his analysis, suspicion, his poking at bad-arguments and at lurkers, overall, his play is consistent in my eyes. His predecessor, MeMe, she was laying low, but I'm agree if she would be more careful when throwing a 'plan' if she's scum.

Iammars, considering his lurking as unintentional, nothing alarming was the 'first impression' I got. But wait.., it just doesn't make sense, he was too neutral about almost anything or other players (scum-knowledge might took part on this), we're not on a first day anymore, although he was quite responsive on 'current' issues, but I can't found a real good analysis from him about the issue(s) or the players related with the issue, sometimes he just let the reader to take conclusion dependently from what he wrote or pointed, keeping himself 'safe' for not explicitly stated his way of thinking. Yeah, I think he's scum for that... Thus,

vote: Iammars

.

Mizzy/Amelia/QB, I may contradict my logic about them because currently Mizzy is voting for Iammars, but I just found myself is distrustful against them when reading their posts, especially from QB's on day 1. Maybe just an over-suspicion for still not having a good read about them.

MGIA, he didn't afraid to sound his opinion including when he has none, and he is following the game well. Considering the possibility the Cult Leader staying alive till the end with a collective of stolen votes, if he's scum it is way too powerful, after thinking about it, I'm doubting the mod would put it on one alignment with the scum for a balanced game.

Hasdgfas, well, two words indeed, but poking players well with it. I considered him town. Hallelujah. Amen.

[mathcam]

It seems safe to assume that there will be no replacement for Iammars by the end of the day (reasonable since even if one magically appeared, they would hardly have time to catch up before tomorrow, and we've already had our maximum one deadline extension for the day). From this point of view, Iammars is certainly not going to be any help today, and might not be for the rest of the game. I don't see him as particularly scummy, but that's primarily since he's stayed pretty quiet and unhelpful -- in fact, the only thing I have in my notes on him is a seemingly unreasonable attachment to MeMe. The pros for lynching Iammars are the above point that he's not contributing and that it saves Thesp from finding a replacement. The cons (for me, at least) are that we ignore the two scummiest players for another day. It's also possible that Iammars will die overnight anyway, though the mafia has admittedly not been very helpful about killing people that request it. All in all, this Iammars bandwagon just seems too convenient.

Cam