Large Normal 212: Korts' Geriatrics - Game Over @1831

[Pine]

so what i am saying is that if old man is a gunsmith there is likely to be ar red herring in the setup, other than the pgo. thus, a half cop that mirrors the half gunsmith is elegant and ticks the red herring box making it the kind of excellent design i would expect from my dawg korts.

Thank you for saying more eloquently what I've been trying to communicate for what seems like a week.

[Tammy]

Mostly a prod dodge.

I mostly skimmed to get current, but I'll respond to anything tomorrow.

Old Man - Who do you think Lycan's partners are? Because even if you believe you have a guilty, there's more work to do.

Thought I had a question for Eddie, but looking back I misread Pine for Lycan, so NVM.

I don't care about the probably and math stuff at all. It is *possible* they are who they say they are, and that's all that matters for that to me. These types of things do happen from time to time. Whether or not they're telling the truth about their claims is another matter, but it is possible, so.

Be back tomorrow!

[insanity018]

Whether he is claiming it because he has a guilty, or because he or a teammate has an odd-night rolecop I don't know, but at this point my role should be public knowledge because scum should (or will) know my role one way or another.I suggest we breathe right now and not derphammer OM.

What is currently your read of Old Man? This post above states both town and scum possibilities.

What do you make of Old Man continuing to push for your lynch after your claim?

[Kison]

so what i am saying is that if old man is a gunsmith there is likely to be ar red herring in the setup, other than the pgo. thus, a half cop that mirrors the half gunsmith is elegant and ticks the red herring box making it the kind of excellent design i would expect from my dawg korts.

That's actually a good point & makes me think the Old Man-town/Lycan-scum scenario makes less sense. They could still both be scum & gambitting.

I'm wondering if our best move is to let this play out and get more info over the coming days. It's what I'm leaning towards right now.

Old Man:

still want you to explain to me why you thought you had such a great chance of being roleblocked that fake claiming would be a stellar move.

Did you expect that eventually rofl would give a sufficient answer?

Maybe. It's why I asked.

[Lycanfire]

Get off town before I change my mind about not lynching within the self resolving roles.

Talk Pine, or talk Mulch.

So let me ask you Lycan – why did you float the idea that he himself would not have to be the RoleCop as scum when Korts has already specifically told us scum don’t have Daytalk? He’d have no way to have the information on you as scum without he himself being the role since results come AFTER night ends and PTs get closed.

I don't know what any of this means.

You keep calling me scum and even backtrack on that. If all you want to do is call me scum, I'm questioning that in itself.

What is currently your read of Old Man? This post above states both town and scum possibilities.

What do you make of Old Man continuing to push for your lynch after your claim?

I think OM is town but I'm feeling torn on whether wanting to lynch me is scummier than not wanting to lynch me. For instance, if OM is scum could he simply push me and have his teammates counter the push? After all, he already got out of the IC dilemma. There is something to be said for wanting the lynch itself, like what I noted with Kison. I don't view my lynch as compulsory to proceed, but I can see both scum!with OM and scum!not with OM wanting me dead regardless-it's free-and also could explain away any night kill questions.

Basically I'm trying to determine which narrative is the scum narrative. If OM is scum, he isn't alone. The people wanting to lynch in the claims {Eddie, Kison, Axel} are doubly suspect IMO.

[roflcopter]

this will probably come as a surprise to no one but i find axel's positioning around the two claims and trying to shoehorn the lynch into that pair to be the scummiest

[Firebringer]

Prodge at work and haven’t anything new really to say

[Tammy]

Korts - I'm v/la until Sunday.

I have a few deadlines this week that I need to get on top of. I should be able to post before Sunday, but this is mostly so I can stop stressing about needing to get in here also.

[Eddie Cane]

You keep calling me scum and even backtrack on that. If all you want to do is call me scum, I'm questioning that in itself.

So why don't you quote where I've called you scum and where I've backtracked?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Insanity

I didn’t like her yesterday and her posting today doesn’t seem to have much in the way of attempting to solve the game. Instead we get posts like 1095 which in sum total says absolutely nothing. It is the pretty much picture perfect IIoA active lurking.

--

There’s the other side of the equation that you’re left to death tunnel Lycan and since you had potential to be an IC, you’d have more “authority” over what occurs in game.

Pine can agree with me when I say that any halfway decent scum player (anyone in this lobby) would be able to use the kills to gain a free mislynch and then kill you the next night

This.

--

this will probably come as a surprise to no one but i find axel's positioning around the two claims and trying to shoehorn the lynch into that pair to be the scummiest

--

...and then he would have a 1/13 chance of finding the town cop if he was town and a 1/11 chance if he was scum. what is nonsense here?

So? I mean you are arguing badly with statistics here. Just because there was an X-in-Y shot of one event followed by a different X-in-possibility of something happening doesn’t mean it is improbable. You are ignoring that pretty much every branch of the probability tree you are describing is “low percentage” because those percentages all add up to 100% in total.

Mafia isn’t the same as pulling marbles from a bag without replacement.

more like 4:11 is ridiculously scumsided and it wouldn't pass in a normal

And if you had the whole picture of what roles actually exist … maybe you could make that argument. But you can’t. Now as scum you have a better view of the scenery and can make snap predictions like this.

--

=="Red herrings thrown in" doesn't necessarily mean some for each. Cop red herrings would be Godfather and Miller, but the former is rare these days and the latter would have been claimed already by practically anyone on this playerlist. The red herrings were a reference to negative utility around the Gunsmith, namely the Cop, or both, such as a PGO. I might have worded the original statement more clearly than I did, but alas I did not.
==As for a false clear, I mentioned Godfathers, but there is also the possibility of a Traitor, which some variants have been ruled does not trip a Gunsmith. (This is from memory on a heavily-interpreted role, plz don't ask me to troll through dozens of games trying to prove this. It's a thing.)
==956: As I've said, I don't trust my Eddie read. That does make me think, however, that SKs are often immune to Cops and/or Gunsmiths, depending on how results are phrased. Cops may get mafia/not mafia, SKs are sometimes ascetic, SKs have been ruled not to use guns but rather knives, etc.
==I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be looking at in 956. Number of scum is some pretty common sense setup spec, which is NAI, and the rest isn't particularly meaningful or analytical.

Actually the Gunsmith classic false clear is a Mafia Doctor. Surprised you missed this. The reason I brought this up to see your reaction is the fact that what I saw in 956 looks very much like classic scum “Hmmm, no second kill so odds are slim we have a Vig or a SK” from a Mafia Doctor to me.

Hito was a pretty likely mislynch. My best guess is that scum thought he was softing a PR. I really can't think of any other way that killing Hito N1 isn't a tactical error.

Alternatively, Hito makes a lot of sense as a vig kill, with the possibility that scum kill was stopped.

Oh god you aren’t scum are you Pine?

--

So let me ask you Lycan – why did you float the idea that he himself would not have to be the RoleCop as scum when Korts has already specifically told us scum don’t have Daytalk? He’d have no way to have the information on you as scum without he himself being the role since results come AFTER night ends and PTs get closed.

Can’t answer the question?

Tammy

– When you get back to the game I want you to give me some straight talk as to why I shouldn’t be voting Lycan if you think there is any.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Derp forgot the vote tags

VOTE: Insanity

[Ginngie]

Actually the Gunsmith classic false clear is a Mafia Doctor. Surprised you missed this.

I don't know why I didn't think of this

I literally would have auto won my scum game if we didn't get a mislynch in earlier because I was false cleared by a gunsmith

[Eddie Cane]

I'm sorry you don't understand mechanics Magna.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm sorry you don't understand mechanics Magna.

I’m sorry you don’t understand statistics or apparently low level math ... so there we are I guess.

[Ginngie]

I know you are but what am I

[insanity018]

What is currently your read of Old Man? This post above states both town and scum possibilities.

What do you make of Old Man continuing to push for your lynch after your claim?

I think OM is town but I'm feeling torn on whether wanting to lynch me is scummier than not wanting to lynch me. For instance, if OM is scum could he simply push me and have his teammates counter the push? After all, he already got out of the IC dilemma. There is something to be said for wanting the lynch itself, like what I noted with Kison. I don't view my lynch as compulsory to proceed, but I can see both scum!with OM and scum!not with OM wanting me dead regardless-it's free-and also could explain away any night kill questions.

Basically I'm trying to determine which narrative is the scum narrative. If OM is scum, he isn't alone. The people wanting to lynch in the claims {Eddie, Kison, Axel} are doubly suspect IMO.

What exactly do you mean by your lynch would 'explain away any night kill actions'?

--

Magna

Is doing the exact same thing he is doing yesterday. Picking and choosing that posts that suits his point of view and ignoring anything else.

@Magna, in that post you linked as "active lurking", I literally stated that I currently don't know which claims I believe.

[Axelrod]

Still no time for this. Sorry. Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow. I suppose I could do one of those V/LA things, but I'm not actually on vacation.

[Pine]

Self-prod

No, MoI, I'm not scum. Take it to the bank, friendo.

Moar votes for Firescum.

[roflcopter]

i am actually on vacation

[Eddie Cane]

so team, are we gonna spend another month prod dodging and then scramble for s lynch a day before deadline?

[Eddie Cane]

let me say this one more time

IF old man is scum, which I doubt, lycan is probably town.

Otherwise, Lycan is 3 times as likely to be scum as he is Cop. Additionally, the God tier dead player and the other good dead player both had him as top sr. Additionally, his slot is just fucking scummy. Normally, the odds are more like 3 times as likely to be town not factoring in reads.

VOTE: lycan

tammy I need you

[Ginngie]

I’m never lynching an invest claim before they get 1 night.

Remember you are not infallible and be optimal

[Eddie Cane]

I was voting him before his claim and his claim makes him scummier, delaying it a day means no partner hunting.

If we arent doing lycan, we can go from there. I'll probably end up sheeping Tammy.

[Pine]

let me say this one more time

IF old man is scum, which I doubt, lycan is probably town.

Otherwise, Lycan is 3 times as likely to be scum as he is Cop. Additionally, the God tier dead player and the other good dead player both had him as top sr. Additionally, his slot is just fucking scummy. Normally, the odds are more like 3 times as likely to be town not factoring in reads.

VOTE: lycan

tammy I need you

Your math is simply wrong. It assumes randomness instead of intentional design. Odd Gunsmith Even Cop makes sense from a design perspective, and we've seen no CC which disputes it.

[Eddie Cane]

no it doesnt... sigh. I'm working a 14 hour day cause I work for elections ontario and its election day, but I'll write it out in detail