Newbie 580 - Game Over!

[JimSauce]

Relatively close, in that he's closer to a lynch than anyone else.

Official Vote Count

BridgesAndBaloons - 3 (Amor, Muerrto, td)

td - 1 (WeyounsLastClone)

Not Voting - 5 (BridgesAndBaloons, cerebus3, curiouskarmadog, JimSauce, Radio_Interference)

5 to Lynch

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Status Update:

Still incredibly busy, but I am about 1/4 done with my case* thing. I re-read the first 5 pages several times to find details and stuff. I'm going to do that for every 5 pages. It probably won't be done tonight, but expect a ridiculously large amount of posting within a couple of days. (this is assuming I can keep up this rate)

*as of right now, it's not a case against any person. It might evolve into that, though.

[Muerrto]

Relatively close, in that he's closer to a lynch than anyone else.

By 1 vote? Aw c'mon JS you know better. Saying he's close to a lynch is a stretch beyond imagination.

[JimSauce]

1. I'm not taking votes into account, just suspicions.
2. I say he's

closer

because if all votes were wiped and we were forced to lynch in the next hour, Bridges would probably be the one tied up. I'm aware he's not close to a lynch right now.

[td]

Well, if you'd take the discreet metric, everybody's either 1 unit away from lynch or already lynched.

Anyways, full posts follows tomorrow; I'm too tired now to write up a serious post.

[cerebus3]

And then he ends with: 'I still maintain that Muerrto's argument is suspicious, but in order for him to be scum, Bab would have to be town, which at this point I doubt.'. Which is about what Muerrto was doing, and where he attacked him for...

That was not my point, and I am done repeating myself. Good job reading my last post though.

[cerebus3]

Relatively close, in that he's closer to a lynch than anyone else.

By 1 vote? Aw c'mon JS you know better. Saying he's close to a lynch is a stretch beyond imagination.

Do you see any other candidates for a lynch right now?

[Muerrto]

Relatively close, in that he's closer to a lynch than anyone else.

By 1 vote? Aw c'mon JS you know better. Saying he's close to a lynch is a stretch beyond imagination.

Do you see any other candidates for a lynch right now?

No, but the way he said it sounded as if he was trying to bring suspiscion on me for BaB being 'relatively close to a lynch'. Which is BS, he's at 2, lynch -3.

And you sound like you're trying to reinforce that...

[curiouskarmadog]

case coming...other games heating up...probably in the next two days.

[Radio_Interference]

krrzzt....

[Muerrto]

The count says Bab is at L-2 right now. Is that one incorrect?

[Statement]

Previously mentioned play is this weekend, so I don't know how much I'll be posting until Sat~Sun. I don't have any time tonight to post much, but I'll be sure and answer what has been asked and what is asked next post.

*Transmission out*

[Muerrto]

krrzzt....

[Muerrto]

The count says Bab is at L-2 right now. Is that one incorrect?

Naw, td added since the original argument, lynch -2 now, still quite safe unless the mafia plans on outing themselves

[BridgesAndBaloons]

That's quite an assumption. There's a very likely chance ( 2/3 of a chance. 2/9 * 3 = 2/3) that at least one mafia member is voting for me. I'm not saying this is absolutely happening, but the fact that you so easily call everyone who is voting for me town is a HUGE ASSUMPTION. You should know better. Maybe I'm misreading what you wrote.

status update: I am still busy, but I got a lot of work done today, and I

plan

on finishing the second third of my post tomorrow. Of course, you never know.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

on a completely irrelevant note, my history teacher said the word, "lynching" today in class.

[WeyounsLastClone]

There's a very likely chance ( 2/3 of a chance. 2/9 * 3 = 2/3) that at least one mafia member is voting for me.

If you're town, wouldn't it be a 2/8*3=3/4 chance? Anyway, I don't think you could use those probabilities too realistically, because I guess that scum will approach it differently than town. That said, I often get the idea scum are at the start of a bandwagon, rather than on the end.

And I don't agree that L-2 at this point is relatively save. Sure, it is in the first few pages, with random voting at all. Now we're at a point were lots of things have been discussed, lots of impressions have been settled in each other's minds.

[td]

Sorry, it took a little longer until I found time to write a post, but here it is:

BridgesAndBaloons and WeyounsLastClone, you've both gotten the numbers wrong.

If BridgesAndBaloons is town, there is a 10/28 chance that no scum is voting for him, a 15/28 chance for exactly one scum voting him and a 3/28 chance that both scum are voting for him.

If BridgesAndBaloons is scum, there is 35/56 chance that the other scum isn't voting for him and a 21/56 chance that he is.

Also, already having a scum vote on you is actually reducing the risk of L-2, because there is only one scum vote left, which won't suffice to lynch you.

--

He listed three scumtells, but by making that statement didn't answer his question so that we could see where he "was coming from" with his scumtells.

I still don't see how a statement like `but everything else can be too, given the right circumstances' actually makes it impossible to see `where he was coming from.' As far as I'm concerned, that

is

a statement that shows where he's coming from, namely that he's depending on

context.

--

I'm still leaning towards BaB as a sometimes misguided townie, but he does make a good job of trying to convince me to think otherwise, because it seems he's trying a different angle, once the previous way doesn't seem to work.

`Otherwise' as in `isn't a townie' or in `isn't misguided?'

[Muerrto]

That's quite an assumption. There's a very likely chance ( 2/3 of a chance. 2/9 * 3 = 2/3) that at least one mafia member is voting for me. I'm not saying this is absolutely happening, but the fact that you so easily call everyone who is voting for me town is a HUGE ASSUMPTION. You should know better. Maybe I'm misreading what you wrote.

Um...if there's scum on you you're even safer, yes? Bad argument # 347.

[JimSauce]

Bridges is saying that your assumption points towards a degree of knowledge that townies don't have.

[Amor]

Not much substantial to reply to, but I'll give it a shot. BaB and CKD's upcoming big posts should provide us with some content at least

* On that note, CKD has been apparently getting caught up on the game for at least two weeks now.

* Muerrto, I feel you misrepresented BaB a bit here:

There's alot of differences between newbie town and newbie scum. BaB came into the game guns blazing and calling out Occult for weak reasons. Occult just happened to be the flavor of the month at the time. Later, when you expressed concern with Amor, he decided that he also thought Amor was scummy. Following bandwagons is definitely a newbie scum tell. While a newbie town

could

do that as well, I'd see them more agreeing with others rather than simply jumping to votes. On top of that most newbie town agree with the IC's, not the other newbies.

BaB has been doing a lot more agreeing than voting, actually. He never actually voted me, for instance. It's hard to tell either way, though, as with this town being so hesitant to vote there haven't been a lot of bandwagons to jump on. (The Occult is, I think, the only substantial one so far.) From the same post:

Is all this WIFOM? Of course because every person is different and plays and acts differently. But that's what compromises 'tells', things that scum/town/newbie etc would

normally

do.

* I have no idea what WIFOM means anymore

* I'm not sure that numerical odds are very helpful. For any given situation the odds will be the same, but what's actually happening will vary. Not to mention that, this many pages into the game, making the assumption that everyone has equal odds of being mafia is silly.

Hmmm... guess that's all.

[Muerrto]

I'm not sure where I used numerical odds to say BaB is scum...could you quote it? Or where I said everyone has equal odds of being mafia...

Maybe you meant to quote someone else?

[Muerrto]

There's alot of differences between newbie town and newbie scum. BaB came into the game guns blazing and calling out Occult for weak reasons. Occult just happened to be the flavor of the month at the time. Later, when you expressed concern with Amor, he decided that he also thought Amor was scummy. Following bandwagons is definitely a newbie scum tell. While a newbie town

could

do that as well, I'd see them more agreeing with others rather than simply jumping to votes. On top of that most newbie town agree with the IC's, not the other newbies.

Is all this WIFOM? Of course because every person is different and plays and acts differently. But that's what compromises 'tells', things that scum/town/newbie etc would

normally

do. BaB falls more into the newbie scum than the newbie town, therefore I suspect him.

He's also flaunted the fact he's a newbie numerous times, at points that weren't even necessary, as a defense against the mistakes he's made. While a newbie town would do this to avoid the noose, BaB's never been anywhere near the noose and has done it to remove suspiscion, that's newbie scum. It hasn't worked.

Sadly, almost everyone's convinced by his play and has labelled him the 'VI' and granted him immunity from being scum. An extremely dangerous decision. While his play has been random at times and his posts are definitely not organized in any way, how do either of those prevent him from simply being newbie scum panicing?

The randomness and jumbled thoughts are his obvious newbie tells, the vote hopping and wolf calling are his scum tells, where are his town tells that have you and others convinced? You guys are saying his newbie tells make him town. His newbie tells make him new, nothing more.

Well Amor took a few lines out of this post but I've yet to see anyone else's responses, especially BaB's, to it.

Is it sound? Why or why not? Does BaB have 'town' tells or just 'newbie'? Does he have 'scum' tells?

Everyone who's saying 'he's newbie town' can you site some examples that make him 'town' and not 'newbie'?

[curiouskarmadog]

Not much substantial to reply to, but I'll give it a shot. BaB and CKD's upcoming big posts should provide us with some content at least

* On that note, CKD has been apparently getting caught up on the game for at least two weeks now.

*

really two weeks? I havent posted any big posts for two weeks? I havent provided any long posts with content in two weeks? you really want to keep pushing that amor? I think that if you compare my posts versus your posts in this game since I replaced in your will find a huge difference in content and posting.

I need time to reread thoroughly and post my case...

if you meta, you will find that I have posted in SEVERAL threads that I need to reread and will post something soon...I am keeping up with the thread, but havent had the time to do more than that...I will get to it in the next couple of days.

[Amor]

I'm not sure where I used numerical odds to say BaB is scum...could you quote it? Or where I said everyone has equal odds of being mafia...

Maybe you meant to quote someone else?

That point wasn't in response to you, it was to a couple of other people talking about the odds of scum voting BaB... BaB posted them and then WLC and td argued about whether they were correct. I really don't think they're useful in the first place.

really two weeks? I havent posted any big posts for two weeks? I havent provided any long posts with content in two weeks? you really want to keep pushing that amor? I think that if you compare my posts versus your posts in this game since I replaced in your will find a huge difference in content and posting.

I need time to reread thoroughly and post my case...

You have made a few long posts in this time, true. But two weeks ago was the earliest "need to get caught up, will post X later" (in this case the second part of the reply to BaB) post where you still haven't posted X. Now you're promising us a case when you get caught up. You seem to promise a lot of things and keep delaying them.

if you meta, you will find that I have posted in SEVERAL threads that I need to reread and will post something soon...I am keeping up with the thread, but havent had the time to do more than that...I will get to it in the next couple of days.

I actually checked your recent posts and you seemed to be posting a lot in other threads, which was what set off alarm bells for me. Looking at the content of the posts, you have mentioned needing to reread once or twice, but you still are posting more often than you are in this thread. I may do a deeper reading later.

Of course, at the risk of lapsing into "attack-and-defend", CKD could very well be legitimately focusing on another game. It's a minor point, but one I thought I should bring up.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I really really am feeling awful that I haven't been posting so much lately. I've really only had a couple of minutes to read some stuff and post status updates. I don't understand how town can lurk in the game. I just feel really bad that I'm not helping right now.

I should make some major headway on my post tonight. Don't expect any spectacular analysis, it's just getting my thoughts together and posting a semi-semi summary of the game.

[td]

That point wasn't in response to you, it was to a couple of other people talking about the odds of scum voting BaB... BaB posted them and then WLC and td argued about whether they were correct. I really don't think they're useful in the first place.

Sorry, but when I see statistics that are so obviously wrong, I can't let them stand uncorrected.

I agree that they aren't of any real use that much into the game, though.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Mod, I unvoted in post 370, but the VC lists me as voting for td.

I really really am feeling awful that I haven't been posting so much lately. I've really only had a couple of minutes to read some stuff and post status updates. I don't understand how town can lurk in the game. I just feel really bad that I'm not helping right now.

Not that I want to excuse my lurking, because I know I should post more, to keep discussions going, and get discussions started, but I do want to make a counterpoint. Let's assume you're town, where did all your postings get you? You're one of the more suspected people in this game. I'm not saying that's bad, I actually admire your dedication to this game, and the number of things you come up with. But it's your way of playing/feeling. I do read the game through, but after I've read I don't always have time to construct a coherent post, or think my thought won't help but rather hurt the game, so my way of playing is to what might come across as lurking. I actually do feel bad sometimes because I can't find good arguments, but I do understand how town can lurk in a game. I feel it's easier for scum, because they know what's happening, and they can insinuate rather than investigate.