Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

[aioqwe]

claim time
tank, jourb, sf, me.
If any objections we can do popcorn style (choose first person to claim and he chooses the next person etc.) or just post your order and we can come to some agreement. If someone doesn't claim we get everyone else's claim and lynch the one who didn't claim. Alright then go tank.

[SensFan]

I'd rather claim last, obviously, but the above order is fine.

[thinktank]

Assuming claims are 2Townie/2Vig
*Lynch scummiest Vig
**If Scum, Vig has a 1/2 chance of winning the game with his NK
**If Town, 1/2 chance of Mafia crossfire
---50% (1/2) chance of Town win---

Assuming claims are 1Townie/3Vig
*Lynch scummiest Vig
**If Scum, we win after Vig crosskills with other Scum.
**If Town, Scum know each other. WIFOM mind games regarding crossfire begin.
---83% (5/6) chance of Town win---

Assuming claims are 3Townie/1Vig
*Lynch scummiest Townie
**If Scum, Vig has 1/2 chance of crossfiring for the win.
**If Town, Scum know each other. WIFOM mind games regarding crossfire begin. Vig has 1/2 chance of crossfiring, so everyone dies.
---50% (1/2) chance of Town win---

Assuming No Lynch
*Scum have 1/9 chance of crossfire. Failing that, there is a 2/27 chance that one Scum kills the other, with the Vig killing the surviving scum.
---19% (5/27) chance of a Town win---

Assuming unclaimed lynch
*If Vig, Scum don't know each other, need a crossfire for a Town win
*If Townie, Town wins unless the same person gets shot twice
*If Scum, Vig has a 1/2 chance of winning the game with his NK
---38% (3/8) chance of a Town win---




As shown, with a mass-claim, we have at least a 50% chance of winning. Without a claim, our chances max out at 38%. No Lynching leaves us with terrible odds.

Fair Enough. Your math seems to work out. I'm fine for claiming first. Alright here we go! Lets do this bold!

I am the Vigilante!

Alright, I suppose its Joubert's time to claim..

[Joubert]

I also gave it a thought previously, seems like the mass claim is a good choice...

I am a Blackjack Dealer. I'm a Vanilla Townie.

I suggest that Aioqwe goes next... Just to mix the cards a bit...

[SensFan]

Think, what is your role name?

I suggest that Aioqwe goes next... Just to mix the cards a bit...

Fine by me. I'll wait for him, assuming no objections.

[thinktank]

I am the Owner of the Casino: Vigilante

Sorry I didn't put the specific role title before i thought we were just claiming the actual role itself.

[aioqwe]

elvis impersonator- 1-shot commuter

SF?

[SensFan]

Bartender, Vanilla Town.

[aioqwe]

Not exactly what I expected but eh... SF and Jourb are scum (they stole role names from GS). I'd rather lynch jourb first due to his general lurky behavior and SF seems to contribute more (on the off chance that it was 3/1 or 2/2 for the scum).

[SensFan]

Not exactly what I expected but eh... SF and Jourb are scum (they stole role names from GS). I'd rather lynch jourb first due to his general lurky behavior and SF seems to contribute more (on the off chance that it was 3/1 or 2/2 for the scum).

Seeing as GS claimed everything under the Sun, you don't think it's possible that he got a couple right?

[aioqwe]

Not exactly what I expected but eh... SF and Jourb are scum (they stole role names from GS). I'd rather lynch jourb first due to his general lurky behavior and SF seems to contribute more (on the off chance that it was 3/1 or 2/2 for the scum).

Seeing as GS claimed everything under the Sun, you don't think it's possible that he got a couple right?

If there is a tweak in our interpretation of the set-up I think your town. Otherwise knowing I claimed 'vanilla' and 2 others claimed 'vanilla' the two others are scum.
On that note, GS hasn't claimed anything correctly. From scums POV tigers and scarecrows aren't claimable so they have to look into dead people's names and in this game GS provided some very plausible names. It is possible that he accurately guessed or by some property of his role derived a correct role name, however I think the fact that 2/3 of our 'vanilla' claims are from the list warrants some suspicion.

[SensFan]

Not exactly what I expected but eh... SF and Jourb are scum (they stole role names from GS). I'd rather lynch jourb first due to his general lurky behavior and SF seems to contribute more (on the off chance that it was 3/1 or 2/2 for the scum).

Seeing as GS claimed everything under the Sun, you don't think it's possible that he got a couple right?

If there is a tweak in our interpretation of the set-up I think your town. Otherwise knowing I claimed 'vanilla' and 2 others claimed 'vanilla' the two others are scum.
On that note, GS hasn't claimed anything correctly. From scums POV tigers and scarecrows aren't claimable so they have to look into dead people's names and in this game GS provided some very plausible names. It is possible that he accurately guessed or by some property of his role derived a correct role name, however I think the fact that 2/3 of our 'vanilla' claims are from the list warrants some suspicion.

Meh, if you think I had time to reread through all of GS' posts overnight, you must think I have way too much time on my hands.

[thinktank]

Whats a one shot commuter?

[Joubert]

So Aioqwe, you think a Bartender and a Blackjack Dealer makes less sense in a casino setting than a "Elvis Impersonator"? You may as well have stepped into your own trap with this post. It's fairly easy to come up with any plausible role when you have to invent one...

FoS: Aioqwe

[SensFan]

Whats a one shot commuter?

Actually, that's an excellent point. A quick search on the Wiki tells me that a commuter is, essentially, a hider that only hides every other Night. Wouldn't the role be much more likely to be a 1-shot hider, than a 1-shot commuter?

[SensFan]

Oh, and WIFOM games aside, I definately wouldn't have spent a while coming up with that huge stat block if I were Scum. Not to mention, based on that stat block, a Vig claim would have given me a much higher chance of winning, if Scum.

[SensFan]

Oh, and one more thing. NO ONE COMMENT ON THIS BUT THINKTANK.

Why didn't you kill last Night, if you were Vig?

[thinktank]

Because I'm a terrible vig. My kills on so far who i've though is scum have turned out to help scum more than anything else. After two pretty bad misskills, If i had made another misskill this game would be over. Because there would be two scum factions and one townie. No matter what the town would lose unless somehow they pulled a mislynch and then if the scum teams crosskilled one another. So it was just safer to not kill and hope for the best.

[thinktank]

woops* not a mislynch, a no-lynch.

[SensFan]

Meh, after his less than stellar reasoning, combined with the obvious Freudian slip, I'm starting to wonder if maybe somehow there is no Vig. This is a theme game, after all...

[thinktank]

Believe what you want. One thing for sure is there are still 3 killing roles out there. And I made the right call, it wasn't worth risking a loss for the kill. If the decision back fired than the town would have lost almost certainly and there was no reason to take such a risk, it was just far more plausible. And BTW, notice that there are 3 killing roles and both you (Sensfan) and Joubert have claimed vanilla town. Which certainly means that one of you is lying. This means that since logically one of you is probably town, than that means aioqwe is the remaining scum.

[Joubert]

ThinkTank, keep in mind that the hypothesis that states there are 2 factions remaining (thus 3 killing roles) is not garanteed. When you made your misskills, what were your reasons for targeting each player in the first place? Were you sure of your shot at that time?

By the way, the Commuter is not quite like a Hider. It's a 100% sure protection during Night, involving only the player himself, and in this scenario, it can be used only once...

[aioqwe]

Given TT's dismal reasoning capabilities I say we ditch his logic.

I definately wouldn't have spent a while coming up with that huge stat block if I were Scum. Not to mention, based on that stat block, a Vig claim would have given me a much higher chance of winning, if Scum.

Wait and this isn't WIFOM?

Please detail your role flavors. Jourb first, I'll go second, SF can go last (I'd rather go last but honestly from an outsider's perspective I'm not townie enough to make such a request). Also, I would like to point out, cocktail waitresses and surveillance systems aren't exactly 100% associated with vegas. Furthermore, an undercover FBI agent has just about as much to do with Vegas as and Elvis impersonators.

...
If we lynch 1 mafia, we have 1 mafia and 2 scum going into the night. Assuming we don't have a doc, bulletproof townie,

commuter

, another jailkeeper etc., we are down to 1 townie and 1 scum, hence we loose
...

Bread crumbing doesn't help too much, it's late in the game but for what it's worth.

SF, I'm looking at your probability, why is a 1/1/1 have a 50% chance of mafia cross-fire. You neglected the possibility that we could lynch the scummiest townie in a 2/2 claim scenario. If he was a town we have a 1/1/vig vs. 1/1/town. If he is scum, the vig knows the scum (the other vig claim).

I'm still willing to lynch myself so we have a 1/1/vig.

I'll look over and present an actual case against the other two.

[thinktank]

Its not guaranteed that there are three killing roles but it is likely because there is the kicking out of the casino , me, the torn to pieces, likely SK and the stuffed full of straw which is mafia.

As for my reasons:

Greasyspot: He really was not helping the game at all. OFcourse his role was declared after but at that point there was the good chance that he was faking a role as well as people claiming random interpretations to his messages albeit one of them was bang on. Then there was the odd chance that he was a jester it was best to remove him.

Lloyd: He was in general acting quite scummy. He kept jumping bandwagons on some less than commendable reasoning. This is the kill that I regret the most. It was tough, I had to pick between him, aioqwe and Sensfan as my target. I figured that Sensfan's actions were too obvious and same with aioqwe. Llloyd was somewhat under the radar and kind of shifty while jumping wagons so that kind of clinched it. In retrospect it would have been better to take out aioqwe or Sensfan seeing how this has turned out.


If we lynch a townie tonight then I'll kick out the other claimed townie. However, if there are two factions, which there likely are, then the other will take me out and then it will be a victory for scum. So if we lynch the wrong townie tonight we lose.

[Joubert]

I can barely detail my role description. I'm a Townie, I can vote during the day, and that's all...

I observed this sequence of related comments here, by Aioqwe and SensFan (my emphasis in bold) :

claim time
tank, jourb, sf,

me

.

I'd rather

claim last

, obviously, but the above order is fine.

Please detail your role flavors. Jourb first, I'll go second, SF can go last (I'd rather

go last

but honestly from an outsider's perspective I'm not townie enough to make such a request)

You both wanted to go last, Aioqwe twice, is there any reason for that?