Day 1
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55: Erg0 tells Oman to stop fishing. Neither confirming nor denying is the right townie move IMO.
59: Matt's comment about Xyl "arguing for arbitrary daykills/lynches" seems to be overreacting a bit, like he's a bit too eager to associate himself with townies attacking Xyl.
61: Now Matt seems to consider the matter over? That was a pretty flimsy explanation.
80: Matt defends Erg0 a bit, and uses the wagon on him to vote Guardian. Some actual analysis here. Interesting comment about thinking Erg0 should deny a dayvig ability here. This could have also been a fishing attempt.
100: Kind of a bad FoS by Matt here on Oman. The followup exchange between Matt and Pickem is a bit weird -- some of Matt's responses don't make much sense here.
144: Matt reponse to my question makes no sense. And the "unless I believe the argument against someone, I defend them" comment? That doesn't sound right either to me -- "Innocent until proven guilty" does not apply to mafia. Rather, it's more the opposite.
146: Erg0 does not agree with Adel's conclusions on Opie.
148: Matt is playing the newbie card here.
162: This analysis by Xyl actually seems to be pretty accurate, for the most part. It looks to me here that he was definitely trying to look town and using his knowledge of peoples' alignments. But his criticism of Matt_S is a bit odd. I kind of get the impression that Xyl may have been coaching Matt here.
190: We've commented a lot on this already. Matt's FoS on Opie is awful. Maybe he's trying to support his scumbuddy Xyl here? But then he turns around and FoS's Xyl for criticizing people and not arguing the points? Something doesn't add up here. Xyl is obviously pushing Opie hard at this point, but Matt sees the need to throw some careful support behind the Opie wagon while also distrusting Xyl? Matt does not seem to see the contradiction in this line of thinking, let along try to resolve it.
191: Xyl returns fire on Matt for his bad 190. Possibly more coaching here.
206: Big attack by Xyl on Matt_S here, but no vote on him. Interesting that this point didn't show up in his 191. Xyl seems to have stepped up the attack only after Adel and Guardian commented.
221: After a scathing attack on Matt not more than a few posts earlier, Xyl seems to be pulling into the U turn lane here. The old "it's too obvious for him to be scum" argument? Ugh. This really looks like an attempt to sell the defense of a scumbuddy here.
226: Matt has a reasonable reply to Xyl here.
233: Matt retracts his FoSes on Opie and Oman and votes Xyl because of process of elimination?
235: Opie seems to have a good post criticizing Matt here, and Matt does not seem to have any response.
239: Agree with Erg0's comments about Xyl on this one. Xyl totally refuses to reply to Matt after this because his arguments and grammar are awful and don't make any sense? Seems like a good excuse for Xyl not to talk about Matt for awhile.
240: "Oops, forgot to vote for the person I found really suspicious."
242: Summary by Erg0. Attacks Matt and Xylthixlm here. Interesting here that he is one of the first few people to attack Xylthixlm here, when a lot of other townies (myself included), were more neutral/town on him. His points on Matt and Adel are good and his reasons look good. Definite townie points for Erg0 here, as he really has no good reason to attack Xyl this hard this early. Erg0 attacks me pretty hard here and starts the wagon on me, which I honestly can't really blame him for. To be honest, I probably would have attacked the inconsistency he found here too. The only real negative I can find with this post is that he seems to find a lot of people scummy here (Matt, Opie, Xyl, TG, Guardian, and me) and very few town (Incognito).
244: Interesting post from Xyl about Erg0 using completely different scumtells. Looks like either setting up for some distancing or trying to jutsify why his views are different than "Erg0 the townie".
245: Xyl seems to deny distancing from TG/Patrick and agrees with Erg0's logic here.
258: Erg0 presses TG on his reason for voting Xyl.
260: Xyl attacks Matt_S again, mentioning him as one of his two lynch candidates.
261: Xyl gets a town read off of Erg0.
273: Matt asks Xyl why his own logic is so bad.
299: Xyl responds to Matt but refuses to explain himself, saying he doesn't understand him and instead asks Matt to explain himself.
302: Erg0 tries to solicit comments about his case on me.
313/319: Xyl starts bussing ChaosOmega.
338: Matt plays the newbie card again. Odd attempt here to draw sympathy from the crowd?
345: Patrick enters the game and lays heavy suspicion on Matt_S, Xylthixlm, and ChaosOmega. Agrees with many of Erg0's opinions. Asks Matt here about his opinion of me.
347: Odd post where Xyl seems to be pushing Patrick to vote Matt over me.
356: I know Matt has been talking about Incognito previously, but he really seems to be laying into Incognito here, who we now know to be town. Most of the other players seemed to get the correct protown read on Incognito here. Matt also comments on me here which is interesting. Matt is really suspicious of Xylthixlm but yet here, he is basically agreeing with him that I am not scummy? This post looks similar to 190 in the sense that he seems to want to be seen as disagreeing with Xyl when in fact, his actions suggest otherwise.
368: Erg0 questions me about my earlier explanations for the turnaround. This looks like an honest attempt to feel me out, but I am just a tiny bit suspicious of him here because the question is a bit vague and could have been a trap (like he could have argued against me regardless if I had answered yes or no).
370: Pretty honest looking attempt by Patrick to feel out Adel's odd defense of me earlier.
465: Wait a minute, now Matt is throwing his weight behind Incognito's posts against Oman? What happened to his suspicion against Incognito?
471: Matt replies to Patrick's assertion that he has not commented on the most recent debates... by not really commenting on them.
473: Extremely thin reason for Xyl to leave Matt's wagon and hop back on Opie's.
484: Matt's extremely poor reason for unvoting Xyl when there was plenty of time to further debate the issues, as Patrick has already pointed out.
491: Erg0 goes after Xyl's Opie vote.
508: Matt is going fishing again? Patrick comments on this in the next post.
510: Erg0's golden post. He's correct about Opie and has named two of the scum, and his third suspect was certainly suspicious in his own right. This post pretty much either confirms him as town (why the heck would he attack both of his partners in the same post and vote one of them to bring him into the spotlight when he was sitting comfortably in most people's middle tiers?), or it is the bus of the century, which earns him so many townie points, that it's going to be nearly impossible to get lynched? I am much more likely to believe the former.
519: Xyl attacks Matt yet again, trying to get Erg0 to vote him.
521: Pretty reasonable and protown post by Erg0 here.
529: Another strong protown post by Erg0 here, slamming Xyl and ChaosOmega again.
538: Matt asserts he did NOT want to get another claim on D1. So Matt is basically asserting the exact opposite of what he intended?
551: Patrick presses an attack on ChaosOmega and Xyl here.
620: Xyl's mention of how Matt has not done anything scummy in the last wee-, er, last couple d-, er, last two posts? Is Xyl defending Matt or attacking him here?
624: Erg0 changes vote to ChaosOmega.
625: Matt quickly jumps on ChaosOmega wagon saying we're running out of time.
658: Interesing post by ChaosOmega to go after Xyl for attacking Matt_S and switch over to Opie at deadline to mislynch. Now ChaosOmega finds Matt and Xyl suspicious after not having said anything about them earlier?
662: Xyl counterattacks ChaosOmega, with no comment on Matt.
687: Matt's respons here isn't very helpful and seems to be flinging it right back at Incognito here.
Day 2
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715: Erg0 quick vote on ChaosOmega, but reasonable, given the circumstances.
746: Erg0 admits his theory of the mafia setting him up was egocentric. A bit vague about his support for not rushing the CO lynch, though.
749: Matt's analysis. Odd opinion of Xylthixlm since he did a lot of stuff Matt was suspicious of, and Xylthixlm didn't seem to do much to allay his fears, and continued to attack him. Odd opinion of Oman being useful and protown on D1, when few others seemed to think that, and brought up an odd point about Incognito here. Interesting that Matt here doesn't seem to really paint ANYONE as being really scummy here other than perhaps CO.
757: Erg0 slams Adel for her behavior on D1. His followup in 762 is reasonable also.
761: Matt is more suspicious of nice people today than mean people? WTF is up with that?
781: Good post by Erg0 in 792, saying we should be lynching CO before Adel.
841: Interesting post here by Xyl. He is basically saying that he can't find a problem with Oman, which also seems to fit with Matt's earlier statements in 749 of not finding Oman suspicious. Did the scum agree N1 to keep Oman around because he would be good mislynch bait later on? See early D3 comments for connection.
900: Good post by Erg0 on the likelihood of mafia claiming Cop vs. SK claiming cop.
924: Erg0 criticizes Adel's plan to support Guardian2.
949: One point I can make in favor of Matt is why is Guardian2 bussing Matt here when Matt is not at the top of a lot of player's lists? The only reason I can think of Guardian2 bussing Matt is so when Guardian2 eventually gets lynched, people second guess his suspicion of Matt.
980: A good question here from Matt about why Adel trusts Guardian2 who replaced ChaosOmega.
1022: Good counterattack by Erg0 against Guardian2 here.
1131: Matt unvotes Guardian2 to try to get a crosskill, letting Guardian2 off the hook. Seems to really believe that Guardian is the SK here.
1138: We still haven't gotten an answer why Matt thought that if Guardian2 was scum that Adel was fairly likely scum. Is this Matt setting Adel up for a mislynch on D3? Also, Matt thinks Guardian2 is the SK because nobody counterclaimed him?
1208: Erg0 correctly refutes Guardian2's (and Matt's from 1138) assertion that Guardian2 must be the SK because he was not counterclaimed. It's interesting that Guardian2 basically swiped Matt's reason from 1138 and Matt doesn't find this suspicious.
1224: Xyl tries to shoot holes in Erg0's analysis that was largely correct.
1228: Strong rebuttal by Erg0 against Xyl's crappy post 1224.
1232: Erg0 provides the nail in Guardian2's coffin by finally providing the reason I was trying to get at. The town still had a winnable position -- why should we throw the game just to punish Guardian2-SK for breaking the contract? 1234 and 1237 are also strong followups to this point.
Day 3
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1262: Matt thinks Xyl is going to WIFOM Oman into a lynch now? This is interesting given 749 and 841.
1266-1271: Given me previous comment, could this whole exchange have been rehearsed N2? I think it's quite possible.
1280: Xyl wants to lynch Oman. But for second place, he favors Incognito or Patrick, two of the strongest townies at that point. What happened to Matt, who he just finished feuding with about Oman?
1286: I agree with Erg0's statement that Guardian2 was fully expecting to be lynched the day before and played accordingly.
1355: Matt seems to believe Patrick, but does not express any intent to vote Xyl here.
Day 4
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1388: I'm a bit distressed about Erg0 so quickly asserting that he is the innocent townie and that we can win if Patrick spares him, but in light of this reread, this could easily be the honest reaction of an innocent.
1400, 1402: These posts sound like a bit of a turnaround from 1397 where he practically declared Patrick innocent and was only deciding between me and Matt. And I already said how I disagree with his analysis if we are in 2/1/1.
1406: Not a great explanation to my questions by Erg0, but I have to admit it could also be consistent with a townie that simply forgot to consider the small chance that Patrick is an SK and that there was another mafia left.
1407: Matt tries to sling some dirt at me for my logic yesterday. This looks like a really bad attempt to throw suspicion on me. I can't really see how the questions he's asking would reveal anything about me because there was no contradiction, as I mentioned in 1410. His other questions didn't even make much sense.
1423: I agree with Erg0's point that how people change their opinion of someone once it looks like they are going to be lynched is very telling.
1424: I can't find much to disagree with in Erg0's analysis. I can only speculate why all of the mafia apparently left me alone the entire game, and my desire to lynch the SK was an honest attempt to try to avoid an unpleasant endgame for the town.
Anaylsis
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Overall, the quality of Erg0's posts and how helpful they were to the town far, far outweighs Matt's. Erg0 developed an early theory of the Xyl/Oman/ChaosOmega trio at a time when it wasn't necessary to bus his potential partners, and more imporantly, his actions for the rest of the game pretty much stayed true and consistent with those initial suspicions. If Erg0 were scum, I have to think it would have been extremely difficult to be that consistent and continue to provide good logic in his posts. When things started turning against Xyl and ChaosOmega really badly, his behavior toward them did not change. He constantly asserted and reaffirmed his positions, and I find myself totally believing his reactions after that. And as mentioned previously, Erg0's post 510 pretty much either has to confirm him as town or has to make him look so good as a bussing scum that he would never be lynched. If Erg0 really did lie about post 510 and was able to be that consistent with his posts after that as scum, then he deserves to win this game.
On the other hand, Matt's early posts on Day 1, as Patrick said, were awful. He didn't seem to analyze or try to scumhunt at all, and in several cases above where he stated his opposition to Xylthixlm, his actions didn't pan out with that, and in fact, his actions seemed to subtly support Xylthixlm, particularly in his 190 and 356. Matt's alternating suspicion and support of Incognito around 356 and 465 seem odd also. Most people other than Guardian and Adel seems to think Incognito were pretty consistently protown. In fact, of the players left in the game, Matt is the only one who really ever attacked Incognito in the entire game, and Matt did it several times (not an isolated incident). Matt's behavior was awful at the end of Day 1 also, implying that there wasn't sufficient time to lynch anyone but the vote leaders, and also how he seemed to back out of asking for a second claim.
And I agree with Erg0 that Xylthixlm's reactions to Matt were telling. Adel taught me in Underground Mafia that looking for people's reactions toward each other that I could not explain should be treated suspiciously, and Xyl's huge amount of attention on Matt on D1 (when just about everyone else did not) looks really awful. Xyl's alternating between attacking Matt and defending him just looks awful, and the reasons he stated for it range from non-existant at worst, to flimsy at best. Matt's analysis on D2 seemed really suspect (see comment on 749 above) and I don't like his wavering support/enmity for Guardian2 on that day either. And Matt really had no comment about Guardian2's bogus "I am forced to do what the town wants" argument? At the same time, Erg0 was going into full attack mode on Guardian2, which is perfectly consistent with his earlier statements. Xylthixlm also attacked Erg0 and myself at the end of the day, when he was about to be lynched after previously seeming to agree with us earlier. However, Xyl never mentioned Matt's suspicious behavior on D2.
The odd Matt/Xyl interaction seemed to continue at the start of D3, and it really looks to me like it was rehearsed the night before, after Xyl's scummy looking play on D2. Also, Xyl not expressing any intent to vote Xyl after apparently believing Patrick in 1355 doesn't make him look any better. Today, I didn't like Erg0's early posts, but frankly, Matt's posts have been worse.
In fact, not just on D1, but for the entire game, Matt has done little to no scumhunting. Erg0 has. In light of this analysis, I have to agree with Patrick's comments about Erg0. He has been extremely consistent and protown looking. I really cannot even come close to making any reasonable case against Erg0. Unless Erg0 makes some kind of a fatal slip, my opinion is that Matt is our man.
Vote: Matt_S
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Page 58 Votecount
Matt_S - 1 (Jitsu)
Not voting - 3 (Matt_S, Erg0, Patrick)
With 4 alive, it's 3 to lynch.
Deadline for D4: Thursday May 11, 11:11AM GMT+10
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