Thespival Mafia (Denouement)

[Beep! Beep!]

Furthermore, a question on your method:

Do you believe that every wagon has a scum on it? Your analysis certainly seems to assume as much.

Every wagon *tends* to have some scum on it, yes. There are no absolutes, I think of it as a bell curve.

[Beep! Beep!]

10.)

Include the CKD-wagon.

11.)

Include the CKD off-wagon.

Well. That's a tougher one because it's recent and fewer of the players have had their alignments revealed.

curiouskarmadog - 5 (hasdgfas (1) (assumed town), Battle Mage (2)(town), Mathcam (5), petroleumjelly (7), Holy (9)).

AGAIN, I believe that at least one scum jumped on that bandwagon. Maybe even two, since the scum is doing so well, they can afford to bus big time to earn some late game town cred. And guess what, it's my top three acting up again, mathcam, PJ and Holy.

Off-wagon, we have Iammars voting for a towne, CKD(SCUM) voting for a townie, me voting for a presumed scum (mathcam), MOS (SCUM) and Mizzy.

We have TWO known scum off wagon, and no player that I consider scummy off-wagon. So I'm edging my bets that the rest of the scum, is on the CKD wagon. No way in the world that CKD wasn't bus'ed by a least one buddy.

It's between mathcam PJ and Holy. Which one (or two?) bus'ed CKD?

[petroleumjelly]

If anybody would like to check just how "effective" this "voting analysis" is, I suggest you isolate Beep! Beep!'s posts -- you already see how ineffective it is from the first few posts. She has been constantly dead-wrong. She starts off by saying that she thought the person she replaced (wolfcrier/JDGA) did not look townish, and that she did not think there was scum on her wagon. Now I am getting 100 "scum points" because I voted for somebody she also did not think looked town, but that I happened to vote with townspeople. This indicates to

me

that there if so many townspeople were in agreement on voting one person, that is because they

were on to something

.

Her analysis is essentially (a) punishes people for not voting to lynch townspeople when obviously scum on those wagons have been shown to be dead and confirmed scum, and (b) punishes people for voting small wagons which did not actually lynch people -- but were instead designed for eliciting information. Conversely, it (a) rewards people for lynching townspeople because they voted along with scum, and (b) rewards people for not joining small wagons, but who could just have easily have "FoS"ed (or even expressed suspicion) in order to avoid being part of a voting analysis, or simply avoided commentary so that they could not possibly be caught in a contradiction or be asked to explain their opinion. Both

suspicion

and

voting

are necessary for a wagon, and not all people who express suspicion

vote

.

Her analysis is a tailoring for scum to (a) not vote on small wagons but to instead

encourage

them, (b) vote on wagons which are likely to end with lynches because of the "Would all the scum have voted this person?"-factor, (c) avoid commentary on players.

Last I checked, all three of those things are things scum do quite often. They like to encourage wagons or incite them without actually placing votes that can be traced back to them. If a partner is in danger, they will very much congregate their votes on one player in order to save their partner (or even to make the exact type of argument Beep! Beep! is trying to make, essentially that "I doubt there are more scum on this wagon"). And they love avoiding commentary because commentary is the best method in which to hang yourself during the Day.

[Beep! Beep!]

PJ, are you getting it all wrong on purpose?

Say, no one pays attention at all to my analysis. Why do you spend so much time debunking it? Am I influencing anyone? Er, last I checked, I wasn't.

Is it because I am right? If I were right, would it bug you? Like, a lot?

Why don't you ignore me, and find your own scum with your superior means? That would be fine by me. I am influencing no one. I am sure that you, being the cleverer of the two of us, will influence the rest of the players far more effectively than I could ever hope to, especially since I don't have a bloody vote.

Show me how it's done.

[petroleumjelly]

I am responding to you because there is something inside of me which refuses to let wrong things continue happening if I can stop them. When I notice somebody make a misstatement, I correct them -- it is in my nature (unless I am in a situation where I also do not want to embarrass that person). The same goes for a game of mafia. Regardless of who your analysis happened to claim was the scummiest, I would have argued against it because everything about it is so completely flawed.

Even when I sit down to think on whether your method has any merit, the only thing I come up with are more reasons why it is

bad

. Additionally, people have definitely expressed interest in your posts filled with numbers -- I am fairly certain the largest reasons why "nobody is listening to you" is precisely because your analysis has been so thoroughly discredited by objections made in-thread, and probably thought about them out-of-the-thread.

[petroleumjelly]

Also, continually calling me "more clever", "more eloquent", etc is nothing more than an appeal to emotion. You've been playing mafia for probably over two years (I won't bother to check DGB's join date).

The only reason I am considered "more clever" is because I tend to be

right

about things, and the reason I tend to be right is that I give things a good deal of thought. For every five posts I make in a game, there is probably one post I wrote up and eventually deleted because after writing it I decided I did not so much like my thought process or conclusion. Trying to play "the underdog" here is not getting you any brownie points.

[mathcam]

I'm actually finding PJ rather scummy in this exchange. Basically I'm surprised that PJ is bothering trying to nit-pick at what is clearly a very arbitrary scoring mechanism and based on Beep's rather specific theories on how to find scum. I agree with Beep's last post -- given that no one really taking Beep's analysis to heart, and that it doesn't even seem like she's attempting to use it as a tool, why spend so much time dissecting it? But more to the point, I

really

can't understand the point of view that Beep's been doctoring her scores in a nefarious scum scheme, mostly for the exact same reason that she's not actually convincing anyone.

It's also not clear that PJ has any interest in whether or not PJ is interested in what BEEP has to offer instead of for the purposes of taking cheap shots at obvious weak points in the scoring system. I haven't spend nearly as much time as PJ poring over Beep's last few posts, and yet I noticed one of PJ's questions that Beep had already answered:

Do you believe that every wagon has a scum on it? Your analysis certainly seems to assume as much.

Everything stems from my belief that you'll almost never have a wagon without scum.

In short, my opinion of PJ in the last few posts is townily over-defensive and paranoid at best, and scummily over-defensive and taking advantage of an easy lynch target at worst. The fact that PJ isn't actually pushing for a Beep lynch is probably the tie-breaker, perhaps implying that the over-defensive and paranoid option is actually closer to the truth.

Not that I'm at liberty to dictate the discussion topics, but I'm pretty done with the discussion of Beep's scoring. Much more interesting to me is MGIA's thoughts since his last post and what he's leaning toward doing with his pair of votes today. (Also, PJ's addressed some of these issues since I started writing this).

Has: Is there anything we can do to make your information more useful? Why was the fact that you got a night action surprising?

Cam

[hasdgfas]

number Amens

[mathcam]

To clarify: The number of amens today has an effect on whether or not your information from last night is relevant?

I'm game.

Amen!

Cam

[hasdgfas]

amens yesterday

[mathcam]

Ah, I think I misunderstood -- your response of "number amens" was in response to "Why surprised?" and not "What can we do?", right?

Looks like I need to go amen-counting.

Cam

[petroleumjelly]

I'm fairly surprised with mathcam.

Beep: I think there's some pretty good info there, even if I find the numerical assignments somewhat arbitrary. How come only 6 people got rankings, and one of them is dead?

Apparently you yourself thinks there's some "pretty good info" in Beep! Beep! analysis; I am showing that it is very much not. Anybody can whip up a voting analysis. I've done it as town and as scum.

I am not so much claiming that she is "doctoring" her numbers as she is clearly omitting particular things which ought not be omitted. And in a very real sense she

is

doctoring her numbers; I get "100 scum points" because I voted for Beep! Beep! and everybody else on her wagon was town.

Additionally, it is pretty clear you have never played a game with me before, mathcam. In playing here over two years, I've never been lynched as town -- and the reason is because I shoot down bad attacks on me as soon as they come up. I have been lynched as scum a few times (and never from a Cop investigation) precisely because the arguments against are more often good than bad. I am an anticipatory player, as well as a reactive player. You can take this information as you will, or believe it or disbelieve it.

Also, I very much

do

want to lynch Beep! Beep! today. I've wanted wolfcrier/JDGA/Beep! Beep! lynched since about Day Two. However -- and you have already agreed on this point -- it is probably best for nobody to vote yet just in case the scum have something up their sleeve (aka MGIA) in order to secure a quicklynch. The only thing that will stop me from voting her today is (a) if I believe MGIA has a more than I comfortable with chance of being scum and that leaving him alive will potentially lose the game even

if

we manage to lynch a separate scum today, (b) if there is some compelling reason to believe Beep! Beep! is town, or (c) somebody makes a case or has information which suggests that some other player is, in fact, scum.

Also --

like I said before

-- I think a large reason people are not listening to Beep! Beep! is that myself and others have so strongly objected to everything about it (method, motive, arbitrariness, incompleteness). Otherwise numbers tend have a strange effect on people because they are too lazy to read them, and so take them at face value without actually analyzing the numbers themselves (as I have been doing).

Furthermore, in case you have not noticed, in my initial response to Beep! Beep! (the *takes aim* post) I also make a case for exactly why I believe Beep! Beep! is scum. In conversing with her, my chances increase that if she is in fact scum, that I will be able to locate her partner(s) by seeing what (if anything) she changes her stances on when pressed.

My title is "thirteenthly,..." precisely because I

am

thorough when I defend myself (and in fact, the use of that word came from a post where I listed thirteen reasons why Werebear was wrong in suggesting that the claimed mason group in Verbose 2 was a scum group; of course, all three of us masons were town).

Amen!

[Beep! Beep!]

I am not so much claiming that she is "doctoring" her numbers as she is clearly omitting particular things which ought not be omitted. And in a very real sense she

is

doctoring her numbers;

So I am, but I am not? Exactly, but completely different?

I get "100 scum points" because I voted for Beep! Beep! and everybody else on her wagon was town.

Exactly! That's how it works. As scum, it's safe to join a wagon when you have a great bug bunch of townies on it. In insist that this is largely true.

Also, I very much

do

want to lynch Beep! Beep! today. I've wanted wolfcrier/JDGA/Beep! Beep! lynched since about Day Two. (...) if there is some compelling reason to believe Beep! Beep! is town.

There is no compelling reason NOT to lynch me, and there are none marching over the horizon. I am vanilla, so I'm screwed. I have no night action to prove myself or to be proven by others. I don't even have a vote. I am a completely useless player, everything I say is wrong anyway, the way I find scum is utter and complete rubbish and there is not value to it. I am the PERFECT lynch for today. No better alternative will show up. So why not stop waste everyone's time, scumbag, and lynch me? Are you gingerly waiting for others to be swayed by your arguments before considering it safe to put me at minus one or hammer me?

I think a large reason people are not listening to Beep! Beep! is that myself and others have so strongly objected to everything about it...

Good job scum in the discreditation department. Scummie nominations forthcoming.

I also make a case for exactly why I believe Beep! Beep! is scum.

It's funny. All I see is a scumbag exploiting a vulnerable, vanilla, voteless townie.

In conversing with her, my chances increase that if she is in fact scum, that I will be able to locate her partner(s)

Yeah. That is BS. I am town, you in fact KNOW it, and you know that the only scum revealed by my lynch is going to be YOU.

Amen!

[Beep! Beep!]

And PJ I can just see you at night, deciding who to kill. I couldn't help but notice how every kill was designed to knock a player off my list. Why NK Ross Williams, for example? Was he a threat to the scum? No... but he had been topping of my list. Why didn't the scum kill PJ instead, if they wanted to prove me wrong - PJ is much more active and dangerous than Ross Williams? Because PJ IS scum.

The scum has been setting it up at night to prove me wrong.

Now you're doing it in broad daylight.

[petroleumjelly]

I don't much like using this smiley, but that definitely deserves a

1.)

The wagon on you was on Day Two. I was the person who started the wagon. I was not "hopping on the wagon with a bunch of townies" -- the townies hopped on the wagon with me.

2.)

When your wagon occurred, wolfcrier/JDGA had never claimed their role. It had nothing to do with "exploiting a vulnerable, vanilla, townie". If you are referring to my case on you today, I have wanted your role lynched for three days, but circumstance (the last-minute Monkey wagon, the Farside22 fiasco, and the CKD <=> hasdgfas situation) has kept me from doing so. Additionally, the points made against you in that case all come from reading the game in context.

3.)

I do not know if you are strictly doctoring the numbers. But you were (and still are) omitting pieces of information in you analysis, and your failure to amend them is

just as bad

as if you were doctoring the numbers -- so you might as well be doctoring them.

4.)

Suggesting that I would have killed RossWilliams simply to discredit you takes the cake. "Conspiracy theories" are complete crap.

Why hasn't hasdgfas died when he has claimed a JoaT many days ago? Why is the vote stealer still alive? Why is mathcam/MeMe still alive?

Answer:

who cares

? The scum kill somebody every night, and we largely don't know why until after the game is over.

But you know what? I agree.

Vote: Beep! Beep!

. Trying to defend yourself with a conspiracy theory is the last straw, and a rotten one. I was really starting to wonder if you were just being a stupid townie, but now you've just convinced me you're being stupid scum.

[petroleumjelly]

Oh, and offering me a "scummie" is another good line. Very nice.

[hasdgfas]

CKD waffling.

Vote: Beep! Beep!

[Beep! Beep!]

CKD waffling.

Vote: Beep! Beep!

Seiouisly, you think I would have waffled like this if CKD had been my buddy?

But thanks for the vote.

I expect Holy and matchcam to finish me off. And why not MGIA with my own vote.

Come on. Amen. More votes please.

[hasdgfas]

giving up?

[Beep! Beep!]

4.)

Suggesting that I would have killed RossWilliams simply to discredit you takes the cake. "Conspiracy theories" are complete crap.

Why hasn't hasdgfas died when he has claimed a JoaT many days ago? Why is the vote stealer still alive? Why is mathcam/MeMe still alive?

Answer:

who cares

? The scum kill somebody every night, and we largely don't know why until after the game is over.

And why not. Why are you suggesting that we ignore this information?

Your painting it as a "conspiracy theory" is just another way to discredit me. I'll be sooooooooo happy when I'm dead, and everyone can see that I am town, and that you are soooooooooo scum.

Please hurry and do not delay my lynch.

[Beep! Beep!]

giving up?

Please lynch PJ tomorrow. Vig him if you can. I can see right through what he's doing. I hope you will, too.

[Beep! Beep!]

How many amens do you need to get a vig kill?

[hasdgfas]

works differently

[Holy]

Knowing others' stance (their analysis) regarding "hot" issues or any issues, basically means knowledge about their process of thinking, in the end it's quite helpful when we need to compare which player likely pro-town or actually deceitful when re-reading them.

I've made my views known aplenty. Go back and read.

That was a respond to your elaborate request >.>

Please elaborate. What do you mean, know more about the others' stance?

^

Your known views will be read again, don't worry <.<
It'll took times, of course...

[Beep! Beep!]

Your known views will be read again, don't worry

I'm pretty sure they will be completely ignored after you lynch me as much as they are now while I am alive.

Where's your vote, Holy? Come on, vote to lynch me. Show us that you're scum as my model predicts.