Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

aioqwe · Post Post #575 (ISO) » Mon Mar 24, 2008 4:16 pm

EBWOP: actually I won't vote so fast; we need to give scum the opportunity to identify each other and know who the town are. I think.

Joubert · Post Post #576 (ISO) » Mon Mar 24, 2008 8:26 pm

Why do you want to vote yourself? I'm not following at all...

aioqwe · Post Post #577 (ISO) » Tue Mar 25, 2008 3:57 am

According to the above cases, the only chance town has to win right now should be if we have 1 town A scum and B scum going into the night (If you don't understand read 474 again) in which case we need to kill one town.

Scum are at the dilemma as to either kill the townie or the other scum. If they kill the town but get killed themselves then they loose. If they both kill the townie then they draw. This is opposed to killing the other scum and having a chance at winning or loosing. However because both scum are individually more likely to try and kill each other it would end up cross-killing leading to a town victory.

Thus, to ensure that we have 1 town, A scum and B scum, we should kill a townie, hence why I would vote myself... Does anyone see any flaws?

SensFan · Post Post #578 (ISO) » Sat Mar 29, 2008 5:19 am

Do you actually think the scum will identify themselves?

aioqwe · Post Post #579 (ISO) » Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:20 pm

No. But we should give enough posts that each of the scum should have a reasonable chance of identifying each other.

thinktank · Post Post #580 (ISO) » Mon Mar 31, 2008 2:09 pm

Hey guys,
Sorry for the long absence but I'm back and I'll do a readthrough for tomorrow (im still really jet lagged)

pete d · Post Post #581 (ISO) » Mon Mar 31, 2008 7:49 pm

Prodding Joubert (everyone else has posted recently). Threat of deadline.

Vote Count: Nobody's voting

Joubert · Post Post #582 (ISO) » Mon Mar 31, 2008 10:19 pm

So, aioqwe, if I understand correctly, it would be more advantageous for the Town to have only 1 Town go into the Night. Right? Mathematically speaking, it looks correct, but is it safe to assume that there is 1 Scum A and 1 Scum B? How do you figure that? If it's not exact, then we may end up making a useless (and possibly fatal) sacrifice...

SensFan · Post Post #583 (ISO) » Tue Apr 01, 2008 1:34 am

There are 4 of us.

At least 1 Tiger Scum is around.
At least 1 Scarecrow Scum is around.

Already that means a 3/2/7 split, which is pretty unbalanced imo. Are you actually suggesting it might be a 4/2/6 or 3/3/6 split?

thinktank · Post Post #584 (ISO) » Tue Apr 01, 2008 1:45 pm

No lynch sounds good right about now. theres 4 of us, atleast 2 scum. If there is a vig, there was a "kicked out" kill last night nor was the vigilante killed by scum unless someone had a Dual role or something. that means that probability wise it seems best to go with a no lynch. If there are more than 2 total scum the town seems screwed no matter what so it doesnt really matter what we do.

vote: No lynch

SensFan · Post Post #585 (ISO) » Tue Apr 01, 2008 3:17 pm

Assuming 2 (separate) Scum, 2 Town, a NL is bad. The odds of a cross-fire decrease dramatically if there are 2 Town, rather than 1, and yet the Town still auto-loses if a single Town is shot.

aioqwe · Post Post #586 (ISO) » Wed Apr 02, 2008 3:20 pm

Sorry, my laptop at home is broken and I'm writing this from a computer at school. I'll start posting again as soon as I get my laptop back.

Joubert · Post Post #587 (ISO) » Fri Apr 04, 2008 8:32 pm

SensFan wrote:Assuming 2 (separate) Scum, 2 Town, a NL is bad. The odds of a cross-fire decrease dramatically if there are 2 Town, rather than 1, and yet the Town still auto-loses if a single Town is shot.

I understand the maths point of view correctly, but as you said, it's just assuming. I'm not saying a 2-3-7 or even 3-3-6 setup is impossible, but the original assumption from Aioqwe is not fool-proof either. I don't think having two factions of 3 or 2 people is necessarily unbalanced, because of the possible cross-fires. If we were more certain about the possibility of two 3-men (or Tiger, whatever) factions, then I would agree with the maths...

Aioqwe's suggestion seems oddly pro-Town, so ironically, letting him be killed would be bad in the long run...

aioqwe · Post Post #588 (ISO) » Sat Apr 05, 2008 5:40 am

oh right vig duh. Okay if town feels ballsy, we lynch a mafia and the vig kills remaining mafia.

oh god 3/3/6?! that means there's only 1 townie right now

if that's the case no voting me... sorry...

thinktank · Post Post #589 (ISO) » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:23 pm

A no lynch is the best bet right now. If we lynch wrong we lose, unless somehow the two remaining mafia/sk cross kill which is unlikely. if we leave it to the night kill theres 4 of us, think about it. Either the anti-twon groups cross kill, in which case the town wins. worst case scenario they kill both remaning town players, in which case they still dont win. or one kills town and one kills the other mafia, in which case its still a tie. I urge if there is a vig to not use the NK because it can really screw this game over if done incorrectly and so far the vig really hasn't been effective. so if we no lynch we either win or tie.

If we lynch, say we lynch one of the two remaining anti-town, then theres three of us. 1 townie will get NKed for sure and then depending on the Vig, we can possibly win, but very unlikely.

if we lynch town or possibly the vig, then the only chance we have is they mafia cross kill.

Honestly, it seems as though we're safer going with the no lynch because theres a higher probability of victory.

aioqwe · Post Post #590 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 12:43 am

having 1 townie, scum A and scum B gives a higher chance that they will cross kill.

Joubert · Post Post #591 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 5:19 am

That's right, but having 1 Townie and one Townie Vig makes a difference in the equation...
Although we may just end up with more casualties, so it's not necessarily good...
It's a shame we have to rely on probabilities, but we have to choose according to the most profitable scenario nevertheless...

SensFan · Post Post #592 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 11:38 pm

Should the Vig claim? What about the other Town? That could potentially decrease he odds of hitting scum.

aioqwe · Post Post #593 (ISO) » Wed Apr 09, 2008 2:25 am

So the two best scenario's are lynch a townie (vig or other) left with 1/1/1 or, vig claims, we who we want to lynch and /possibly/ who the vig will kill.

SensFan · Post Post #594 (ISO) » Wed Apr 09, 2008 3:41 am

Assuming 1 Vig, 1 Townie, I think both should claim. That way, either we confirm one of them, or else each Town will know the identity of 1 of the Scums.

pete d · Post Post #595 (ISO) » Fri Apr 11, 2008 4:54 pm

Two week deadline in place as of this post.

Vote Count:
No Lynch (1): thinktank

Not Voting (3): SensFan, aioqwe, Joubert

thinktank · Post Post #596 (ISO) » Sat Apr 12, 2008 1:52 am

The no-lynch is by far the best way to go. Scum can't win if we no lynch no matter, at best they can tie. And whats the point in claiming for the vig? Its just going to give a target for scum (assuming the claim is real). This is a terrible idea, its not like we're asking for a claim from the cop or some sort of role which would grant information upon claiming, the vig claiming wouldn't grant anything except possibly Night Kill choices which are again somewhat useless at this point. Theres no way of determining or confirming them, its just based on speculation on who you'd think is lying.

FOS: SensFan

SensFan · Post Post #597 (ISO) » Sat Apr 12, 2008 5:03 am

thinktank, you are 100% wrong...

The only way Town can win is if the Mafia cross-kill each other. The best statistical chances for a cross-kill occur if there are as few non-Mafia as possible. Therefore, lynching Town is the best bet.

Under the previous assumption, the Vig is essentially powerless, since the Town only wins if the Mafia kill each other anyways. By having both the Vig and Townie claim, the Mafia will be forced to claim something, and will likely each claim a different role, to avoid giving the Town a confirmed innocent. Assuming there are 2 claimed Townies, and 2 claimed Vigs, the Vig will know one of the Scum, and the Townie will know the other. It will also help ensure that we lynch a Town today.

aioqwe · Post Post #598 (ISO) » Sat Apr 12, 2008 1:46 pm

possibly a better idea- we lynch a mafia and have the vig kill the other at night albeit it is slightly more risky.

Either way no lynch sucks.

I support the claims as well... I think... (I'm trying to work out cases...)

SensFan · Post Post #599 (ISO) » Sat Apr 12, 2008 3:24 pm

Assuming claims are 2Townie/2Vig
*Lynch scummiest Vig
**If Scum, Vig has a 1/2 chance of winning the game with his NK
**If Town, 1/2 chance of Mafia crossfire
---50% (1/2) chance of Town win---

Assuming claims are 1Townie/3Vig
*Lynch scummiest Vig
**If Scum, we win after Vig crosskills with other Scum.
**If Town, Scum know each other. WIFOM mind games regarding crossfire begin.
---83% (5/6) chance of Town win---

Assuming claims are 3Townie/1Vig
*Lynch scummiest Townie
**If Scum, Vig has 1/2 chance of crossfiring for the win.
**If Town, Scum know each other. WIFOM mind games regarding crossfire begin. Vig has 1/2 chance of crossfiring, so everyone dies.
---50% (1/2) chance of Town win---

Assuming No Lynch
*Scum have 1/9 chance of crossfire. Failing that, there is a 2/27 chance that one Scum kills the other, with the Vig killing the surviving scum.
---19% (5/27) chance of a Town win---

Assuming unclaimed lynch
*If Vig, Scum don't know each other, need a crossfire for a Town win
*If Townie, Town wins unless the same person gets shot twice
*If Scum, Vig has a 1/2 chance of winning the game with his NK
---38% (3/8) chance of a Town win---

As shown, with a mass-claim, we have at least a 50% chance of winning. Without a claim, our chances max out at 38%. No Lynching leaves us with terrible odds.