Micro 431 - Noughts and Crosses Mafia

[vettrock]

Wow, I log on and the game is already three pages long.

I agree we have to both play tic-tac-toe, and scum hunt. I do think we should start with which ever of the corners seems scummiest. We have to assume Pine will be NK on N1 for them to take the center, from there we scum hunt amoung, the two sides next to the corner that we lynched, and the corners that would make three. That way we force the NK of the scum, and we have 4 out of 7 to choose from. If the square to complete the three is scum, either scum will have to NK one of their own, or we just lynch for the win the next day. If scum NKs to block, we go the other way.

I think until as least one scum is dead, the TTT game needs to drive the lynches at least partially. Once we have one scum flip, we can lynch anyone as getting the scum will win the game.

I disagree with NK Pine. The center while it does give some advantage, it is not worth losing a conftown, and letting scum NK another town.

[vettrock]

Noughts and Crosses Mafia

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

To explain why we should take a corner:
Assum we lynch T-bone. Scum NK's Pine. Now our options for lynch the next day are Belisarius, Mathdino, Kaboose, and Equinox. All of those will give us two in a row, forcing scum to NK to block us. So if we lynch Mathdino, scum has to NK Belisarius, or we win. If either Mathdino or Belisarius is scum, we gain a dead scum.

If we lynch a side, again assuming scum NK's Pine. For example, Kaboose. Now we have to lynch T-bone or Equinox in order to get two in a row, and scum has to NK the other one to block us. Then Scum will have two in a row which will drive out lynches from that point on in order to prevent scum from getting three in a row. Scum has control and can drive the lynches away from whatever squares they are in. Since we have to lynch both of them, they just have to set it up by who they NK such that we can't lynch them without failing to block them getting three in a row.

[vettrock]

You have a reasonable point concerning scum directing who we lynch, but the two investigations nonsense is total bunk

Besides, by lynching a corner, WE take control

---
---
--O

---
-X-
--O

If scum take the center square Night One, then THEY will be forced to follow US

Your argument is invalid, and I am quite happy to make the corner we take yours

No, you're not following it through.

---
---
--O

---
-X-
--O

--O
-X-
--O

--O
-XX
--O

Now we have to block. Then X takes Top or bottom and we have to block that as well. I don't want us to play where we have to block the scum from winning. That means the scum is dictating which players we lynch.

Am I really the only one that doesn't want to block scum from TTT all game? It seems like we can't scumhunt at all past D2 in this scenario and we just hope to get lucky.

I do see your point here. I didn't follow it past D2. I'm still not sure taking the center is the best option. However looking at your last diagram.

At that point there are 4 dead and 5 players alive. If scum has not died yet, we are at LyLo, and need to lynch scum, or we are going to lose anyway no matter what is on the board. Hopefully scum is that square, otherwise we have lost.

If one scum has died, we have 4 town and 1 scum. We have to block. If that square is scum, we win. If that square is town, Scum gets a night kill. Then it doesn't really matter who they kill as they cannot get three in a row, and we are at three player LyLo anyways, we need to lynch scum or we lose.

So, we have to lynch scum, D1 or D2, however, there is also the chance that scum will have NK their partner in order to block. We lose in the situation that both of the scum are in the blocks that haven't been played yet. (top left, top middle, bottom left, bottom middle) in this example.

[vettrock]

No, you're not following it through.

---
---
--O

---
-X-
--O

--O
-X-
--O

--O
-XX
--O

Seems to me that even in this worst case scenario, our hands aren't tied until D3. How many mislynches can we afford in a 9p game to start with? 2. This also assumes we don't hit scum D1 or D2, when we will have the whole board to pick from without setting scum up for a TTT win.

Assuming we'll reach D3 in such a manner without hitting scum along the way sounds like the way scumBeli thinks when applying Shaheed's Law.

It is not just who we lynch, it is also the NK that could be scum. So for example we pick:

O--
---
---

scum takes the center:
O--
-X-
---

If our D1 lynch was town, At this point we have to either select the top right corner, or the bottom left corner. We should select the top right corner if we suspect either the top middle or the top right.

O-O
-X-
---

If we lynch the top right, the scum, must NK the top middle, or they lose. So if either of those squares are scum, we are down one scum. If all are town, we have to lynch the bottom middle D3, and if it is not scum, we lose. If it is scum, the scum NK's someone, and we are in 3p LyLo.

If either the D1 lynch, or the D2 lynch or N2 NK is scum, we have the option to select someone not in the "right" square if we are pretty sure they are scum to go for the win, realizing if we are wrong, scum wins by NKing for the three in a row.

[vettrock]

Also, after thinking some more. We don't have to take a corner. But I think is gives the scum a bit more options, but we still have a fair amount of control.

Say we take a side:
---
O--
---

Scum takes the center:

---
OX-
---

At this point we have to take either the top middle or bottom middle:

I'll select top middle for example
-O-
OX-
---

Now scum can select the top left corner, and we have to respond with the bottom right. If none of those are scum, we have lost as there are only 4 players left, and 2 are scum. If at least one scum is dead, the board looks like:

XO-
OX-
--O

Scum will NK someone, and No one is going to get three in a row, and we have to find the one scum out of the 3 in 3p LyLo.

or the scum can select the top right or bottom left corner so we have (it doesn't matter which one, since we have to select the other one):

Selecting top right for example:
-OX
OX-
---

At that point, we would have to take the bottom left. If none of those 5 is scum, we have lost. If one of the dead is scum, we go to 3p LyLo, and no one is getting three in a row.

I think taking a corner is probably better, as it take away the options from the scum, but a lot of it depend on who we think is scummy.

[vettrock]

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

Keep in mind that our D3 lynch is absolutely not forced. I mean technically it is but we have control over it.

Suppose for now that RC gets lynched, flips whatever.
Scum kills Pine excepting shenanigans.
Then suppose we collectively decide, say, vettrock is scum.
We can lynch either of vettrock or myself and thus line up the next day's lynch.

See, if we lynch vettrock, scum has to NK me. Then we lynch Equinox and scum kills Scripten.
On the other hand, if we lynch me, scum would have to NK vettrock, then we lynch Kaboose and scum gets to choose who to kill, putting us in 3p LyLo.

We have more control over this than you'd think. Just keep in mind that in lynching RC, we admit that if T-Bone is scum, he can't be lynched until LyLo. Furthermore when we choose which side to go on (the Equinox/Scripten side or the vettrock/Mathdino side) we admit the same for Kaboose and Belisarius, respectively.

I agree we have control over who is lynched D3, but we have to make that decision earlier than D3. At D3, we are pretty much locked in.

Assuming we we lynch RC, at that point we have to select either the Equinox/Scripten side, or the vettrock/Mathdino side. Suppose for example we think Equinox is the scum. At that point we need to look at who is opposite. We have Mathdino and Belisarius. If we think Belisarius is the scummier of the two, we should lynch Equinox. This will force the scum to NK Scripten, and we will be forced to lynch Belisarius D3. If we think Equinox is scum, but think Mathdino is scummier than Belisarius, we need to lynch Scripten, even if we think Equinox is the scum. This forces the scum to NK Equinox (even if he is scum). If scum doesn't NK Equinox, we lynch the next day for the win. If scum does NK Equinox, then we are forced to lynch Mathdino to block. At this point if at least one scum has been lynch, we are in 3p LyLo. if zero scum have been lynched, we will have lost. If both scum have been lynched, we obviously will win.

So yes, we do have a limited control over who is lynched. The trick is to identify the T pattern (in any rotation) that we think has the most chance of scum, or the 7 pattern:

XXX
-X-
X--

Which can be rotated or mirror image, and has at least one scum in it. We are basically selecting 4 of the 8 possible scum locations an hoping at least one of the 4 is scum.

I'll address why lynching Pine is a bad idea next, and how it is giving up control to the scum:

If we lynch Pine, the scum then can select any square for the NK This effectively protects the square opposite. So for example they could NK T-bone:

X--
-O-
---

At this point, we can lynch anyone but RC. If we lynch RC, even if he is scum, we have:

X--
-O-
--O

Scum now can NK either across the top, or down the left column. Scum knows where they are, so they will NK the opposite or is the scum is the right middle or bottom middle in this example, it doesn't matter which direction they go, which sets them up to force our lynch and keep them from getting three in a row. We are essentially in LyLo but there are still 5 players and only 1 is scum because our only chance to win is lynching scum on that turn, or they win by three in a row.

Assuming we don't lynch the spot across from the NK, we have a choice of anyone else:

X--
OO-
---

We force their NK:

X--
OOX
---

At this point, we have selected only 2 of the possible 8 as scum. The IC is by definition town, and the scum have an open board so they are NKing town on N1. In the other example, we are forcing their NK to a specific square, which may be scum. We then need to select one of the remaining 5 to be scum. If there are two scum still alive, We have to get it right as we are in 5p LyLo, or they will NK town and have the majority. If one of the 2 of 8 that we selected was scum, we can force their NK to the square we want, with the exception of the lower right in this example. If we slect the lower right, and it is not scum, scum can NK anywhere and we are in 3p LyLo. If we select any other, we are selecting 2 squares for scum to be in since they have to block. So selecting 2/5 of which one has to be scum, which then puts us in 3p LyLo if we are wrong.

XO-
OOX
-X-


So in summary, If we lynch the IC in the center, we have to get the scum in 2/8, and then 2/5 since we have wasted our first lynch on town, and the scum choose their NK on N1. If we select a non center square, they have to use their NK on N1 on the center IC, and then we can force where their second NK is, and the space across to block, so we have to find one scum with a 4/8 chance instead of of 2/8.

[vettrock]

I want to press this. You're saying let's take a 1/8 shot over controlling the entire game. I don't think that's a reasonable trade-off. I mean, I'm willing to debate this further, but it's not even close to me right now.

It's like saying choose between a one-shot vig and a two-shot cop.

The TL;DR version of my previous post. By taking a non-center square, we have to hit one scum by selecting 4/8 squares. By taking the center square, we have to hit one scum in 2/8 and then if successful, 2/5.

[vettrock]

Noughts and Crosses Mafia

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

Assume we lynch RC. We can choose from the following death orders:

T-Bone -> {Belisarius, Kaboose, Scripten, vettrock}
Belisarius -> {Mathdino, Kaboose, vettrock, Equinox}
Mathdino -> vettrock -> Kaboose -> anyone
Kaboose -> {Belisarius, Mathdino, Equinox, Scripten}
vettrock -> Mathdino -> Equinox -> Scripten
Equinox -> Scripten -> Belisarius -> anyone
Scripten -> Equinox -> Mathdino -> vettrock

If we lynch RedCoyote, the only real viable options, and the chain assuming the scum NK Pine:

1. Lynch vettrock, forces NK on Mathdino, forced Lynch of Equinox. If {RedCoyote,vettrock,Mathdino,Equinox} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
2. Lynch Mathdino, forces NK on vettrock, forced Lynch of Kaboose. If {RedCoyote,vettrock,Mathdino,Kaboose} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
3. Lynch Scripten, forces NK on Equinox, forced Lynch of Mathdino. If {RedCoyote,Scripten,Equinox, Mathdino} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
4. Lynch Equinox, forces NK on Scripten, forced Lynch of Belisarius. If {RedCoyote,Scripten,Equinox, Mathdino} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.

If we select anything else other than the above after a RC lynch, we conceed control of the board to scum, as they can NK, and force our lynches at that point.
The pattern is the same but with different names if we lynch one of the other corners. Once we do our first lynch, our options are limited.

For the other corners:
If we lynch T-bone first, the only real viable options, and the chain assuming the scum NK Pine:

1. Lynch Belisarius, forces NK on Mathdino, forced Lynch of Equinox. If {T-Bone,Belisarius,Mathdino,Equinox} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
2. Lynch Mathdino, forces NK on Belisarius, forced Lynch of Scripten. If {T-Bone,Belisarius,Mathdino,Scripten} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
3. Lynch Kaboose, forces NK on Equinox, forced Lynch of Mathdino. If {T-Bone,Kaboose,Equinox, Mathdino} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
4. Lynch Equinox, forces NK on Kaboose, forced Lynch of vettrock. If {T-Bone,Kaboose,Equinox, vettrock} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.

If we lynch Equinox first, the only real viable options, and the chain assuming the scum NK Pine:

1. Lynch Scripten, forces NK on RedCoyote, forced Lynch of T-Bone. If {Equinox,Scripten,RedCoyote,T-Bone} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
2. Lynch RedCoyote, forces NK on Scripten, forced Lynch of Belisarius. If {Equinox,Scripten,RedCoyote,Belisarius} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
3. Lynch Kaboose, forces NK on T-Bone, forced Lynch of RedCoyote. If {Equinox,T-Bone,Kaboose,RedCoyote} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
4. Lynch T-Bone, forces NK on Kaboose, forced Lynch of vettrock. If {Equinox,T-Bone,Kaboose,vettrock} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.

If we lynch Mathdino first, the only real viable options, and the chain assuming the scum NK Pine:

1. Lynch vettrock, forces NK on RedCoyote, forced Lynch of T-Bone. If {Mathdino, vettrock,RedCoyote,T-Bone} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
2. Lynch RedCoyote, forces NK on vettrock, forced Lynch of Kaboose. If {Mathdino, vettrock,RedCoyote,Kaboose} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
3. Lynch Belisarius, forces NK on T-Bone, forced Lynch of RedCoyote. If {Mathdino,Belisarius,T-Bone,RedCoyote} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
4. Lynch T-Bone, forces NK on Belisarius, forced Lynch of Scripten. If {Mathdino,Belisarius,T-bone,Scripten} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.

[vettrock]

I think either Belisaruis or Tbone is scum. I know I am town, and I am getting town reads from mathdino. My optimal lynch would be Equinox, only because that sets up the Belisarius lynch. If we have to go my way, I prefer Mathdino over me as I see Equinox as town. I think most likely this us going to head into 3p Lylo where Tbone us the scum.

VOTE: Equinox

To be clear I think Equinox is town, but the path to the scum leads through him.

[vettrock]

Also, I am considering the T-bone lynch as well. If we lynch T-bone, scum will Nk one of the four sides, whichever one does not have scum opposite. So if the kill me, we have to lynch Kaboose, and we are in 3p LyLo. The disadvantage here is if T-bone is not scum, we are headed to 3p lylo with the two town that scum chooses, whereas with either mathdino, myself, Equinox or scripten, we have the potential to kill one of the scum out of the possible town insread of the squares scum cooses for us after a T-bone.

[vettrock]

Wow, I log on and the game is already three pages long.

I agree we have to both play tic-tac-toe, and scum hunt. I do think we should start with which ever of the corners seems scummiest. We have to assume Pine will be NK on N1 for them to take the center, from there we scum hunt amoung, the two sides next to the corner that we lynched, and the corners that would make three. That way we force the NK of the scum, and we have 4 out of 7 to choose from. If the square to complete the three is scum, either scum will have to NK one of their own, or we just lynch for the win the next day. If scum NKs to block, we go the other way.

I think until as least one scum is dead, the TTT game needs to drive the lynches at least partially. Once we have one scum flip, we can lynch anyone as getting the scum will win the game.

I disagree with NK Pine.

The center while it does give some advantage, it is not worth losing a conftown, and letting scum NK another town.

lol at standard scumtell

compared to scripten's standard towntell

I don't get the scumtell here. That I said NK instead of lynch?

[vettrock]

for reasons unstated, i will not be self voting after that initial test

VOTE: pine

would recommend lynching me though

Why do you keep voting Pine? What does that supposed to mean?

[vettrock]

Alas, that is correct.

I kind of want to lynch vettrock and win today, but if I'm wrong, we lose the initiative.

VOTE: Mathdino

Lynching me or lynching mathdino has almost the same effect. If one of yt? he two o v us is lynched, yt? he other will be nightkilled to block. The difference is had nothing do do with mathdino or me. It is Equinox or kaboose as to which we would be forced to lynch on D3.

[vettrock]

Phone posting:

The only difference between lynching me and lynching mathdino is who we are forced to lynch the next day, if either of us are lynched, the other is night killed as otherwise we win. The difference is equinox or kaboose as to who is the forced lynch D3. I read mathdino as town, so I would rather go the other direction, toward equinox. We are deciding on three deaths with our lynch. Once the lynch for today is hammered, the next two deaths are forced. If you think belisarius is scum, the lynch for today is Equinox. This means the death of equinox, scripten, and Belisarius. I think it is more likely to hit one scum in that group than vettrock, mathdino, and kaboose. If T-bone is scum, will have to wait for lylo.

[vettrock]

I think it is an interesting idea, but so much of the future of the game is determined early in the game with the forced lynches. Also, I think for scum, opposite corners is about the best setup you can get as unless you are certain they are scum, you can't lynch them until LyLo, or you loss the TTT game, or at least turn over the direction to the scum.

[vettrock]

The dead thread that Pine created:

http://www.quicktopic.com/51/H/Vf6242RqBRRp3

[vettrock]

I had a strategy, but then you guys blew it up in a way I couldn't believe. I came home from work to a vote count with cross votes and I had to read it about 10 times.

That's always a good feeling. My only game as scum on here I replaced in during the night, we roleblocked the cop and his first post of the day is him claiming a guilty on the other town during LyLo. I had a strategy ready, but it was just handed to me.