Micro 431 - Noughts and Crosses Mafia
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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I'm down with lynching a corner, but haven't decided which one, so I'm not committing a vote. I know I'm not voting Mathdino, though.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 24, Kaboose wrote:Why not mathdino?
A non-obvBS attempt to create a breaking strategy on page 1. Yes, this could come from scum if there's a clear flaw to it that scum could exploit, but it's less likely to.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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I'm not saying it'simpossiblefor Mathdino to be scum based on the evidence presented, merely that it is less likely and thus suboptimal to lynch him on Day One.
Another point in his column is that his initial strategy placed him squarely in his own proposed lynch pool, something that scum are less likely to propose, although apparently I am required to disclaim that it is once againnot impossiblefor this type of gambit to come from scum.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Yeah, that's not happening; this is still a game of Mafia and we're notknowinglylynching Town unless there's no choice.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Simple: We can't win by playing TTT; all TTT games played between players who know what they're doing end in a draw. We need to win by lynching the scum, same as we would in a conventional Mafia game. Lynching town is not a path to victory in a conventional Mafia game, therefore we're not taking the centre square.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Actually, I'm a bit tempted to go there too, in order to preserve the players who have been talking sense; so far the only player talking bollocks (with the possible exception of myself, I'm no fit judge of that) is confTown.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 59, RedCoyote wrote:Okay, everyone stopped laughing? Hear me out. If we do this, we retain control the entire game. The scumteam never force us into lynching anyone with their kills because we have the center square. Every lynch we do will effectively control the scumkill as well because otherwise they lose. For instance, say we lynch Pine and scum kill me. We can lynch anyone except T-Bone and force the scum's hand. If we then lynch, say, vettrock, then the scum have to kill Kaboose. If Kaboose isn't killed, he's confirmed scum. If Kaboose is killed, this doesn't help the scum get any closer to winning on the board. Then we can lynch, say, Mathdino, and the same thing applies to Equinox.
Lynching the center square is like giving us two free investigations, I think. Granted, we have to sacrifice our IC to get it, but if we don't lynch Pine today, the scum will kill him tonight and we'll be stuck chasing the scum around the board.
I'll admit, I hadn't considered the investigative implications.
The problem is, if scum are any of the corner pieces, they can NK the opposite corner to make their cornerscum untouchable D2, and then we have an unacceptably high probability of winding up in in a 5p lylo in which the interactions needed to catch scum haven't occurred because we've been playing TTT instead of Mafia. For the nonce, I'm still thinking taking a corner is our best move, but I'll keep an open mind.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 68, RedCoyote wrote:I just explained how it effectively nets us two investigations
If and only if we happen to lynch opposite scum. There's no equivalent of a cop inno in your scenario, just apotentialto get the equivalent of a cop guilty in a very specific circumstance which may never arise.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 75, RedCoyote wrote:No, you're not following it through.
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Seems to me that even in this worst case scenario, our hands aren't tied until D3. How many mislynches can we afford in a 9p game to start with? 2. This also assumes we don't hit scum D1 or D2, when we will have the whole board to pick from without setting scum up for a TTT win.
Assuming we'll reach D3 in such a manner without hitting scum along the way sounds like the way scumBeli thinks when applying Shaheed's Law.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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I've no objection to L-1 (Or a hammer, for that matter) at this point, but I'll withhold my vote due to multiple townreads being unready.
And that little doubting voice in my head? As Shakespeare once said, "Fuckthat guy."-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 103, Pine wrote:Nah. There's a pretty obvious next lynch, though I'd rather not elaborate
Although you'll definitely die before you can elaborate?
A yes or no answer will suffice.
VOTE: RedCoyote
I grow weary of waiting.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 108, Mathdino wrote:In post 107, Belisarius wrote:In post 103, Pine wrote:Nah. There's a pretty obvious next lynch, though I'd rather not elaborate
Although you'll definitely die before you can elaborate?
A yes or no answer will suffice.
VOTE: RedCoyote
I grow weary of waiting.
LOL
Belisarius is now the top of my townreads.
Some day, I'll understand why someone townreads me, and on that day, Armageddon shall ensue. Yet when townMe relies on this, I get lynched or forced to claim. For this reason, I consider my atheism justified.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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I expect scum to be in {RC, vettrock, T-Bone} so I'm fine with this. In this setup, I'm even freed of my normal preference for being NK'd instead of lynched due to the lack of culpability. BRING IT!-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 115, Pine wrote:In post 107, Belisarius wrote:In post 103, Pine wrote:Nah. There's a pretty obvious next lynch, though I'd rather not elaborate
Although you'll definitely die before you can elaborate?
A yes or no answer will suffice.
VOTE: RedCoyote
I grow weary of waiting.
Depends. If I were them, I wouldn't shoot me
I'm pretty much ready to lynch
Don't tempt me when I've been drinking, I swear to god I'll make Frankie Boyle look like Mary Poppins.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Also @Math, I read that. I was unmoved by it though, and would not counsel a townie to bother.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Really no sense reading scumposting anyways, so no harm done. You know what would be more pro town? A survey about condom flavours.
Pedit: It disnae change fuck all.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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But it's nice to have confirmation that T-Bone is a scumfuck in case I lack the charisma to swing a vet lynch/force-NK tomorrow-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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1. Salacious Strawberry
2. Apfelstrudel
3. Hawk Sauce-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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I really hope condoms come in the same flavours as vapes, lest I be revealed as a non-cocksucker as well as a vapist!-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Yeah go ahead and lynch me next if RC flips town because that isn't fucking happening.
Pedit: hawk sauce is a "complex" flavour, so it's not for everyone. I prefer fruit/candy flavours to menthol/tobacco types, so it's not really for recent ex-smokers, and according to Health Canada, it's for children. Apparently, at age 30 + tax, I contitute a child BUT AT LEAST I'M NOT BITTER-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Yes, as an ardently Monarchist Canadian, I am very much unamerican. PS: cinnamon vapes are worse than syphilis. ECV's Apple Pie, however, is better than sex, and Americans make not only the best ejuice but the best APVs. Canadian ProVari users represent!-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Also, T-bone's recent posts put him above vet in my to-lynch list
Pedit: Mathdino, I am your biggest fan ATM, I'm all for icing T-Boner regardless of RC's flip on account of what a fuckballs awesome lynch vet will be in the unlikely event this game is still being played once we irrumate RC and T-Bone with rope-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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I saved this for a separate post: @T-Bone: yeah, but I'm going to have to insist we reserve our incredulity at the stupidity of my government for the dead QT/PT-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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@Math Scum pretty much have to kill Pine tonight. A T-Bone lynch tomorrow is still acceptable (and a preferred lynch of mine) regardless of RC's alignment. You shouldn't be too concerned, we can definitely swing a T-Bone lynch tomorrow based on the sheer volume of people townreading me, and the fact that I'm townreading you hardcore.
@scum: For you, sir/madam, the war is over.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 178, T-Bone wrote:At this point I can't even see where you'd be coming from a town perspective because the hemming and hawing at this stage makes absolutely no sense.
In what universe do competent townies fail to consider the possibility of being wrong?-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Alas, that is correct.
I kind of want to lynch vettrock and win today, but if I'm wrong, we lose the initiative.
VOTE: Mathdino-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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But if vet is town, scum NKs obvTown Mathdino for the block and then we are *forced* to lynch Equinox, also obvTown.
If we lynch Math and I'm wrong about vet, scum NKs him and we are forced to go for Kaboose, who I consider to be significantly more likely to be scum than Equinox.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Also, as an added bonus, lynching Math puts T-Bone back into the line of fire.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Right now, he's invulnerable because lynching him sets up scum to control the board. I think heisscum if vet isn't. That means I need a T on the board on the top row or left columnbefore it's too lateif I want to get him lynched.
If you assume T-Bone scum, RC's actions yesterday make sense. TTT is a solved game, and it's accepted that taking a corner is the optimal move for the player starting. RC had to know that arguing against a corner would rain fire down upon him even if it didn't involve lynching confTown. Why would scum do that? Well, the risk-benefit analysis evens out a bit if town has a 50% chance of hitting scum by lynching a corner even at random, and RC knew that even if he did get lynched, T-Bone would be untouchable for a while. It adds up. RC's not a newbie, he's easily capable of following that logic.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 219, Mathdino wrote:My fear is if we lynch T-Bone we'll pretty much be left with Kaboose, vettrock, and whichever of me and Equinox that scum wants in LyLo
It's even simpler than that: if we lynch T-Bone and he's not scum, we lose. Scum will just use their NK to direct our lynches onto townies.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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The only way I'll believe Equinox and Scripten could be scum is if they flip that way or everyone but the two of them and me is dead and the game isn't over.
T-Bone, as I've said, is my second strongest scumread after vet.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 223, Mathdino wrote:inb4 "that can be arranged"
I doubt it, since the game will be over.
As for the read on Equinox: There's only one reason I ever get NK'd given how often I fuck up LyLo, and that's because I love being scum to the point where I think like scumregardless of my alignment. There is no townBeli. I'm scum even when my role PM says town. That means I can get into scum's headspace, and when I put myself into the headspace of a hypothetical scumEquinox, I start screaming blue murder because this is not the way to win a scumgame.
When you're scum, if you're actually playing to win and not just phoning it in because you don't like your wincon, you think about things like how everything you say is going to be perceived -- the first basic fact of being scum is that if you flip, the whole goddamn town is going to be going over every word you wrote with a fine-toothed comb. Yes, I can see lurking because "scum don't lurk lest they be lynched for lurkers," but there's going to be some sort of effort to try to guide the town to that conclusion. This is absent in Equinox's ISO, and although I've not read alotof her meta, I don't see her as the sort to phone it in because she doesn't like her role PM. If she was trying to play sitemeta, there'd be some sort of nudge to get us to think the way she wants us to think.
The same applies for the "coaching" tell. Yes, you can catch scum by looking for coaching, but as scum, I'd make damned sure that if I fucked up and posted some coaching, I'd follow up with loads of bullshit in the hopes of making people miss out on it through sheer volume of posts. When you've got a long enough ISO, people with short attention spans are going to skim. Nobody is going to skim Equinox's ISO.
Lastly, strategic lurking is just that: strategic. This means it'll be discarded once the risk/benefit analysis swings towards the risk axis. I could see maintaining a stratlurk in a large or even a mini, depending on setup, but this is a micro, on D2, with one scum left. The last scum in this game is panicking. I see no panic.
Yes, individually, all of these points are WIFOM, but the whole damned game of Mafia is WIFOM and when you combine them, they paint a sharper picture that points so far away from scumEquinox that it will take the light from scumEquinox sixteen thousand years to reach it.
Granted, before you asked the question about why I was townreading Equinox, the answer was "gut," but now that I've peered deeper into the belly of the beast, I'm much more satisfied with my read, so thanks for that.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 228, Mathdino wrote:so you're saying equinox is either sucking at scum this game by pointing directly to his partner
or he's lurky town
this makes me more confident in both your slots, cool
lynch t-bone if we get to lylo
Equinox isn't sucking at scum. She's got enough experience to play more proscum than this even if she's slumping harder than I was in Cephrir's FE:A game (which I consider to be my shittest towngame of all time)-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 236, Equinox wrote:In post 225, Belisarius wrote:Lastly, strategic lurking is just that: strategic. This means it'll be discarded once the risk/benefit analysis swings towards the risk axis. I could see maintaining a stratlurk in a large or even a mini, depending on setup, but this is a micro, on D2, with one scum left. The last scum in this game is panicking. I see no panic.
Talk about this a bit more. I've had zero site activity since Day 2 opened apart from this past hour; how could you say that you "see no panic" if there's no evidence of my ever being here?
You're assuming, incorrectly, that I noticed that.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Also, fun fact: the joke about flavoured condoms being intended for children was purely serendipitous; I was involved in multiple conversations at the same time and my IRL conversation about vaping spilled over into this game and I was too drunk to notice. Still, it was damned funny so awesome.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Vet *is* voting for Equinox.
Fuck, I'm gonna have to wait for LyLo for a win-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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I, too, am delighted to join the "lynch Beli at LyLo" club because fuck you, lylo isn't happening.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Wait what? I clearly don't know what I think.
Hit me with your best Pol Pot joke!-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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I'd do it, but I'm already voting obvchoice.
Really anyone who doesn't think a Mathdino lynch leads inexorably to a town win and isn't voting ME is fucked in the head.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Let's not lynch until the new year so Equinox has a chance to chime in.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 350, Scripten wrote:In post 348, T-Bone wrote:Equinox, Beli, Scripten from most to least.
Why Equinox before Beli? I thought you were convinced that Beli was scum?
Psst: he just posted his preferred NK order by mistake.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Equinox's V/LA period is listed in the Activity Overview.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 357, Kaboose wrote:In post 356, Belisarius wrote:Equinox's V/LA period is listed in the Activity Overview.
Oh that's nifty! Most town thing you've done the whole game.
Remind me to slag you off for this post after the game.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 360, T-Bone wrote:In post 350, Scripten wrote:In post 348, T-Bone wrote:Equinox, Beli, Scripten from most to least.
Why Equinox before Beli? I thought you were convinced that Beli was scum?
Though really Beliscum can do whatever the fuck he wants (and he is).
In case I'm full of shit (and AMoL forces me to consider the possibility seriously) I consider it important to say that at this point, however confident I may be that I'll be here at lylo an there be one, I'm fucking terrified that I'll let my team down by being lynched tomorrow.
Please for the love of fuck, Kaboose, be scum.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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But realistically, I think T-bone is the last scum, and regardless of which townie I wind up in lylo with, I don't know if I can beat him because of how fucking town that last T-Bone post was.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Equinox said she wanted to add more. When that happens, or at 24 hours to deadline, I'll vote.
We have the time and we don't have to argue about who to lynch, so being this close to deadline isn't the crisis it would normally be.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 386, Kaboose wrote:Belisarius, if you were scum after my lynch who would you night kill?
Tough call. Part of me would want to ice T-Bone to throw off any town plans made in the night and foment confusion and FUD, but I think my recent scumplay (particularly in Mini 1518 where I voted in a bloc with my scumbuddy and still won even though said scumbuddy flipped) has probably used up about all of the luck I have, so I'd probably take the safe move and shoot Equinox, since nobody has any real desire to lynch her.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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In post 399, Kaboose wrote:Do you think Scripten assuming he'll be alive on the last day was at all a slip of some type?
No. I'm assuming that I'll be alive on the last day as well, it's statistically pretty likely.
It'll definitely be either Scripten or me, and I think it's more likely for Scripten to eat the NK due to the fact that more people want to lynch me than him, but that could easily be a perspective problem.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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I'm ready for the hammer any time, and may not have another chance to post before deadline.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Yeah, that's what I thought.
Ready to vote T-Bone and win this any ol' time.-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Annnnnnd now I have doubts.
Why do you need us to crossvote in order to figure anything out?-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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Why did you just not-answer a question with a question?-
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Belisarius Mafia Scum
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