Micro 366: Vengeball (Game Over)

[Drew-Sta]

VOTE: Boonskiies

I didn't get him last time. I want to get him this time

[Drew-Sta]

Sup...

And yay, another phokdapolees modded game. I enjoyed the last one.


VOTE: Drew-sta

we meet again...

Arh ya beat me!

[Drew-Sta]

Poorly executed, not shit. Sort of opportunistic but made sense with the flow of conversation at the time. He should have voted when he proclaimed Rubicon as scum.

Rubi is scum

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Rubicon

Err, he did - within two posts. Seemed more like he realised after the fact he hadn't voted, then did.

Some interesting posts now I've worken up and all you lot have had a few things to say.

[Drew-Sta]

That's why I said poorly executed. If you proclaim someone as scum, normally you drop the vote right away, not as an afterthought. After all, they're scum right? Vote them the hell off the island!

Are you being deliberately dense or trying too hard to set Molla up?

[Drew-Sta]

So far:

* Boon - town
* Molla - null (Due to a previous game, need to be more wary of my reads on him)
* Nespresso - null leaning town
* Mr Ree - null leaning mafia
* Rubicon - null leaning mafia
* Bert - nothing
* Honeybee - nothing
* ZZZXXXSSSDWECSSADFQWEASDF - nothing

All based off the pushing and prodding. They're pretty loose but hopefully this will generate some discussion.

UNVOTE:

I'd be quite happy to move out of RVS given what I've seen.

--

Mr Ree - post 39 appears like you're attempting to downplay a possible slip (I'd say almost protectively, but others also did the same so I am happy to say it isn't based on others responses), almost like you're setting a precedent for what should or shouldn't be read as a slip. Why?

Further to this, you seem very interested in the self vote of Nespressojet in 44 - this is curious to me. RVS is, or should be, fairly random. Why does the self vote grab your attention?

Rubi - in 28 you pick up on an assumed 'tell', but then get quite defensive of that in 51. Your focus then seems to shift almost seamlessly to Molla in 60 and 64 - why the rapid shift? Why not place more pressure on George Clooney (Nespresso)? I might be over reading here, but both your posts appear to be throwing mud, without actually pressuring them. Generating dirt on players that can be used later is... interesting.

[Drew-Sta]

Long post, so I may have missed a few recent ones by mistake.

@ZZXXXEWAFAFAS

Spoiler:

I have a theory. Blue scum is 50% more likely to pick on that slip since they will believe it is more real (you got what I mean?)

which is really interesting. Since if you were werewolf in another game and you saw something hunting for WW and not mafia and it seemed like a slip the WW will be more likely to notice it.

Makes sense. But exactly what does that mean to people responding to the supposed slip? Are you suggesting we can identify blue mafia based on their response to it? Thereby, highlighting Mr Ree as likely Blue?

@ Boons

Spoiler:

WAIT!!! I actually think cappuccino might be scum.

He wanted to wait the day out longer so if Rubicon were to flip Vengeful Townie, he was definitely gonna venge kill his main suspect, right? If mocha is scum, he might be trying to keep away from the possibility that Rubicon has a lower chance of being scum, as he knows himself and his partner, so by probability, rubicon has a good chance of being a vengeful townie, thus ending Latte's streak.

Coffee, what is your reaction to this possibility?


PEdit: I meant espresso by those various coffee types, just in case you didn't catch on.

Firstly, Secondly, I agree there is some solid logic there. The problem is three people (you included) came to George Clooney's defense - sorta. You, ZZZXXXXX and Mr Rhee all claimed it wasn't a slip (or put doubt into it being a slip. This could mean a number of things:

* One of you three are his scum-buddy and Rubi is town
* None of you are his scum-buddy and Rubi is mafia (red or blue)
* Rubi is attempting to bus his scum-buddy to get town cred.
* George Clooney is mafia, and Rubi is right, and you three are derping

Which is it, is the question. I'm erring on the 2nd and 3rd points right now. Boon, remember what I did to ILF in my last game with you? Same kinda situation.

@ Mr Rhee

Spoiler:

P-edit @Drew: wut? I'm the one saying his vote makes sense based on the conversation leading up to it.

If I wanted to make a case against him, I'd point out that the actual vote came after Boon voiced support for the wagon, which would put it at L-1 if he hopped on.

I'm suggesting your suggestion is incorrect, and Molla's vote was not poorly timed and simply reads like he pressed the submit button too quick, rather than him being 'opportunistic'.

I agree the vote seems somewhat opportunistic given Boon's prior vote, but I still think its a stretch ATM.

Why do you feel it should it have been read as a slip? I don't feel it was but I'd like to hear why you do.

I'm not suggesting it should be read as anything. I'm interested in peoples reaction to it and discussion of it. In my experience, mafia tend to make more slips than people recognise (generally). How people react to what they perceive is a slip often generates positive movement in identifying intent or agenda.

You are suggesting it is not a slip. There's four situations:

1 - the slip is genuine, and you are:
* Defending your buddy
* Not reading it as a slip
2 - the slip is not genuine, and you are:
* Genuinely defending it as a non-slip
* Attempting to get cred / white knight

This is what I'm curious to.

Because it was a self vote when suspicion was being directed elsewhere.

This doesn't make sense. It was RVS. He seemed to be taking the piss (I believe, anyway - I could be wrong and he's self voting to try and leave no trace as to his RVS intent); and if suspicion was elsewhere, why would he want to draw suspicion to himself with a self-vote?

The fact you picked up on it, in RVS, is curious.

@ Rubicon

Spoiler:

boon asked me what I thought about my wagon, and then people wanted to talk about molla.

51 is the opposite of defensive so I dunno what to think about you calling it that. if you disagree with it, you should talk about why you disagree.

Perhaps defensive is the wrong word; you appear to get into a justification argument for why you think that. Those types of arguments ring bells for me.

I might be overthinking it.

Espresso's reaction included a possible scumslip in the phrasing 'out me as mafia'. Molla's jump on was shit. Boonskiies is town. You might be town.

You think its possible that Molla is defending George Clooney? Scum-partnering? I'd like to hear more thoughts on this please.

@ George Clooney - Nespresso Icon

Spoiler:

@Drew: Your reads list is full of a lot of nothing, why did you bother posting a full list?

For this reason:

All based off the pushing and prodding. They're pretty loose but hopefully this will generate some discussion.

You have to start somewhere, and my post seems to have helped generate discussion. How people react to those lists are interesting. You seem pretty up tight about it. Pinch a nerve on your scum-buddy?

[Drew-Sta]

Mr. Ree defending me is cool but I don't know what it means

I'm genuinely thinking WK'ing at the moment. It is... odd.

[Drew-Sta]

Mr. Ree defending me is cool but I don't know what it means

I'm genuinely thinking WK'ing at the moment. It is... odd.

Further to this, he picked you out then seems to have back tracked? IDK - might be tunneling on my part, but he's not been consistent at all yet.

[Drew-Sta]

I'm very confused by the Clooney thing.

Just a play on words. Esperesso ---> Nespresso ---> George Clooney, Nespresso Icon.

[Drew-Sta]

I'm willing to lynch anyone for a 50% chance of hitting scum. Odds can't get better. Aye?

Yeah... nah.

[Drew-Sta]

No, I said (or at least implied) that I phrased my original question as a question because it wasn't scummy of him to say "blue team". Then he did something else that is scummy.

So, if it isn't scummy of him to mention the blue team, why did you mention it?

Why do you keep saying you 'might be overthinking it'?

I have a penchant for tunneling. Its a bad habit. You may call me gopher if you wish.

molla is in the category of players whose interactions I don't try to analyze.

Why?

[Drew-Sta]

the one time I decide not to click preview before submitting, I manage to fuck up the quote tags :\

[Drew-Sta]

Bert, can you better explain what made you post that? Exactly why do you feel a random lynch will achieve the best result for town?

[Drew-Sta]

This game is the shit. I just logged back on and have been laughing my ass off for the last ten minutes reading that whole exchange.

Boon, we need to play more games together. You're excellent value.

Give me a few hours and I'll have a look through and see if I can work out what happened from a scum-play. I actually thought Mr Ree was mafia, so need to have a good relook at things.

Dear goodness this is fucking good fun.

[Drew-Sta]

How sure are you on Bert, Molla? And why the certainty of read on him?

(A few hours away from doing more than phone surf)

[Drew-Sta]

Prelude - we're at 7, meaning 4 mafia, 3 town I presume (two mafia roles, two teams, can't see there being more than two teams of two in the game).

Ok, have had a good read re the build to that lynch and then what has happened after.

Bert was, in many ways, the lynch-pin (lawl) to this. 176 gets Rubi at L-1. There was no real reason why, except, according to 118, he simply wanted to lynch someone. Hasn't done much since.

This sets the stage for Boon (our lovable hero) to hammer, and that's it.

Boon:

Spoiler:

Since RVS (I'm assuming his unvote denotes his exit of the phase) changes his vote from Bert, to Rubi, to Bert, to hammer Rubi, to George Clooney, to Bert. There's a focus here on Bert and Rubi. Now, I have NFI why, but either he's got a 'lynch all lurkers' thing going on, or he has an FOS for some reason not really stated (at least, not to me in his ISO). Bert has made it hard for himself with his posts, so Boon could be jumping on the wave here, but I'd like to ask Boon - why Bert?

Secondly, why not Nespresso, given you seem to have a FOS on him?

My issue with Boon here is he and Nespresso are bouncing off each other like two team mates. They're throwing mud at each other but not really analysing. Its got my curiosity. He's posting a lot of shit without a lot of method or meat to them. He's also doing a lot of selective scumhunting (he's made no attempt to look into ZZZX, Honeybee, BB, myself), and seems to have made a 'Oh well that sucks' tell in 204

To me, he is my prime candidate right now. He has a random playstyle, but in a game like this, random helps provide cover. Its a scatter tactic. People go 'Oh that Boon, he's just all cray cray'.

I don't. I think he's actually mafia.

VOTE: Boon

I like ya man, but I think you're one of them.

Honey bee:

Spoiler:

No real interaction except to fling mud at Bert, Nespresso and myself. Need more input. I will say:

Also looking at your iso, you never even bothered to vote anyone until after the lynch, yet you have like 50 posts in this thread and are pretty active, So I'm convinced.

This applies to you too, HB, so what's good for the goose is good for the gander.

Bert giving me scum vibes. The game I played with him he at least tried to care.

Same again. If you care, why not post more and do some actual analysis?

Also looking at your iso, you never even bothered to vote anyone until after the lynch, yet you have like 50 posts in this thread and are pretty active, So I'm convinced.

What has convinced you? I don't understand - he voted Boon, and then didn't change. You acknowledge he didn't change in a second post, but then maintain your point is still valid. What point?

Lazy analysis. Seems to be prod dodging more than anything. Not necessarily scum tells. Just problematic logic and play.

ZZZX:

Spoiler:

109 - why is there no white knighting? In fact, white knighting is probably what will lead us to scum? Finding out who is defending who will identify teams. This seems to me to be a deflection of tactics - something that will work for us is discredited in an attempt to discourage us from reading it as a tell.

Can you explain more about why you think there is no white knighting?

111 - either town tell or scum looking to play the VI.

234 - massive alarm bells for me. An attempt to get town cred by dismissing the previous lynch as 'dumb'.

Nespresso:

Spoiler:

Just... overload of posting. Seems to be spamming the game thread with zero analysis but an attempt to make himself look 'around' so noone can claim he is lurking. Can't say he is mafia, but can't say he isn't.

BBmolla:

Spoiler:

Appears certain Bert is mafia based on a feeling. Need more analysis. Previous experience makes me very, very wary.

tl:dr summary

mafia - I think Boon, Nespresso, ZZZX, Bert are mafia. I believe Boon is the one showing most.

I think Honey Bee is being lazy. I think Molla is null right now. I would flip between Bert / Molla depending on how much more they interact. My Bert read is mainly due to his blase attitude. It isn't pro-town at all.

[Drew-Sta]

Ok, so I need to reevaluate my reads. With Boon town, I had Bert, ZZZX and Nespresso (confirmed) as the others.

I think Molla is one of them too?

Not sure. Its 3 on 2 here.

[Drew-Sta]

VOTE: ZZZX

[Drew-Sta]

Why?

Reasons as 237. He, Boon and Nespresso I felt strongly about. Going for 2/3 on them.

[Drew-Sta]

To add, you and Molla are coin tosses in my mind. We don't have the fortune to go with a coin toss right now.

[Drew-Sta]

You are aware that by voting me you run into a deep risk. If either you or me were not blue scum then I would have been instantly hammered.

Exactly. You've proven my point. The fact noone has voted for you yet indicates to me that you're likely scum. Town isn't going to quick hammer - red scum are. That noone has jumped on you (which is one of the reasons I voted you - to see who moved quickly) identifies that. At the moment we need to find red scum, and I think I've identified you as one.

Looking deeper I found your play interesting. And since I am not seeing any quick hammers Its 75% sure that you are blue scum. I have another reason for believing so.

Go on, I'm willing to listen. Make your case or stop flinging mud.

I will make sure that blue scum isnt really off before giving my vote just to make sure we dont lose this. Anyway I think I answered the post you talked about didnt I?

? Not sure what you mean. Please explain.

Meanwhile I will believe in the existance of VI-ancy because one clouded judgement will be bad. Right now I have a slight idea who blue scum is.

Name, justify and shame please. Withholding info is not helping town right now.

If either you or me were not blue scum then I would have been instantly hammered.

We don't know who has showed up yet. A set-up quickhammer via daytalk isn't even optimal at this point for blue - the quickhammerer likely gets vengekilled.

As ZZZX said, no venge kill. But the fact noone is willing to jump on this (the two of you being online and interacting) to me identifies one of two things - you don't believe me or you're red scum not wanting to lynch.

[Drew-Sta]

Your logic is built on the idea that you are not blue scum.

... because I'm not? Your logic is built on the fact I am blue scum and you're

not

red scum. Its a faulty argument.

However right now I am sure that you are. Am I wrong? Well I really believe that no town would do such a foolish play. Reminds me of 350 micro alot.

Laying my balls on the line, and seeing Bert (who, remember, said he was happy to lynch anyone - and jumped right on Rubi and Boon) not vote for you is giving me confidence I'm right here. He's been happy to get a lynch, if he were town, why would he rush so much to lynch those two, but not rush to lynch you? Is he waiting for his scum partner? Or are

you

his scum partner?

We're at Lylo with no real info to make a good decision. I felt we needed a drastic move to get info. I believe you're mafia. I believe you're red mafia too, as if you were blue then Bert would likely vote. And I believe Bert is your accomplice, as he is not voting despite being on and being lynch-happy.

Exactly what about 350 micro are you referencing specifically?

I will make my case later today. give me a sec

5 posts, 45 min, promising I am scum yet no justification. We're waiting.

[Drew-Sta]

@ ZZZX: Bullshit. I just inverted your argument. Now you're stretching big time.

You claim I'm blue, and that you're town. Which means your argument is (der) based on me being blue and you not being red.

I'm claiming you are red, and Bert is your buddy, because Bert has not voted for you despite me doing so. If Bert was red and you weren't, he'd vote you and his partner would hammer.

My argument is simply the inversion of your claim. The difference is I have onus of proof as I claimed this D2, and have backed it up again.

[Drew-Sta]

This:

My argument is simply the inversion of your claim. The difference is I have onus of proof as I claimed this D2, and have backed it up again.

... to clarify, I claimed ZZZX was mafia D2. I also claimed Bert was as well, although I was less confident of him.

[Drew-Sta]

@ZZZX

Spoiler:

IF I was red you know that blue mafia wins automatically if I get lynched if I were red? Are you THAT bad not to see this.

Firstly, I don't think you're red - I think you're blue. This is what I'm trying to say (Have I said you're red? I don't believe so and I just looked at everything said and can't see it. IF, and that's an IF, I have said you were red, it is a simple type on my part. I firmly believe you are BLUE). I think you're completely missing what I'm saying or there's a communication issue here. Or you're trying to present something I've said as a slip to get the lynch and win the game (since if Blue aren't lynched, they win the game).

The scenario presented below is the key: We know that red godfather is dead. We lynch mafia, town still have a chance to win as they have no venge kill. If we hit godfather, we knock out blue mafia, and it is 2 v 1. If we hit goon, we still have a 2v2 situation, in which case if town we lynch the correct mafia (which the other mafia will agree to do since its in their best interests), then it is 2v1 in LyLo.

Now, this assumption is that you are blue mafia. I believe you are. HOWEVER! If I am wrong, which I am willing to negotiate if others can advise that my theory on you and Bert is wrong, the scenario's still stand and it is more a case of finding a red.

The ONLY scenario where we don't have a chance to win is if we lynch the red goon - then its 2v2 and its game over. In one sense, it is MyLo, not LyLo.

Your ATE to get me lynched is, to me, a clear indication that we've hit blue. You know that if you get this lynch on anyone, then it is game over. Given everything going on, and given they KNOW they only need to lynch, this is why I believe you and Bert are linked, as Bert has not gone for you, and you have gone for me and so has Bert (in an attempt to get the lynch). It is also why you don't want a hammer - if we hammer the wrong person, then we enter more phases and you'd rather it end here than risk losing another phase.

You didnt. YOu gave a reason to scum read me and I explained how its bad and wrong.

Except you haven't - you've told me I'm wrong, but if your reason is the above quote I've looked into, then your point is faulted and your argument void.

277 is just... weird. You haven't actually shown where I've slipped at all. I'm using a logical argument (You are red, Bert is red, if you were blue, then red would come on here and hammer as they don't care who is lynched as long as its not them, but since you and Bert were both online and posting and I voted, Bert can't be red since he would vote you given his complete disregard for who is lynched on what day which I'll come to later) and you're saying its a slip?

Puh-lease You're doing this:



274 indicates to me that you've lost your nerve. Had Bert jumped on (although he does later) your entire team is on show, and we can then proceed to pick you off one at a time. You thought one of the others (Molla, Honey) would side with you and then Bert would hammer. They haven't, and now you're backtracking as I've identified how shaky your argument is.

Finally, if I was red, why the fuck would I lead a lynch on Boon given it was almost 99% certain he'd nail Nespresso, who ended up being the Red Godfather? That's just fucking stupid and makes no sense at all. Bussing a team member in this game is a quick way to guarantee a loss. I'd go someone else, wouldn't I. Have a think about it.

Bert:

Spoiler:

Answering 275 - I'm not suggesting you should feel rushed to vote. I'm suggesting in both D1 and D2 you've basically lynched whoever was on the table with no discretion. Yet now, when I propose a pretty strong argument, you have basically held off, held off, held off some more, held off again, and then you vote me in 282 using the same logic you used in D1 and D2. This logic is 'Statistics show we will by sheer probability hit scum, so what the hell - I'll lynch someone.' You vote me, despite voicing no argument as to whether I'm blue or not (I assume you're following ZZZX's logic? Convenient).

I can't be any more certain you and ZZZX are mafia. 284 is a fucken joke - 'Oh, I don't need to read the game. What if Molla and Drew are blue?' Based on what?!

If I had two votes one would be on ZZZX and the other would be on Bert. I am that certain.

[Drew-Sta]

@ ZZZX: Bullshit. I just inverted your argument. Now you're stretching big time.

You claim I'm blue, and that you're town. Which means your argument is (der) based on me being blue and you not being red.

I'm claiming you are red, and Bert is your buddy, because Bert has not voted for you despite me doing so. If Bert was red and you weren't, he'd vote you and his partner would hammer.

My argument is simply the inversion of your claim. The difference is I have onus of proof as I claimed this D2, and have backed it up again.

IF I was red you know that blue mafia wins automatically if I get lynched if I were red? Are you THAT bad not to see this.

Fucker. Typo here:

Now, this assumption is that you are blue mafia. I believe you are. HOWEVER! If I am wrong, which I am willing to negotiate if others can advise that my theory on you and Bert is wrong, the scenario's still stand and it is more a case of finding a

red

.

Should be 'blue'.

[Drew-Sta]

Fucking fucking fucking colours. Ghey.

(You are

blue

, Bert is

blue

, if you were

red

, then

blue

would come on here and hammer as they don't care who is lynched as long as its not them, but since you and Bert were both online and posting and I voted, Bert can't be red since he would vote you given his complete disregard for who is lynched on what day which I'll come to later) and you're saying its a slip?

I have bolded my changes. I keep fucking up my reds and blues.

[Drew-Sta]

oh wow

UNVOTE:

why do both of you look like you scumslipped?

also, why is no one voting me?

Slipped? Where? Seriously, I want someone to point directly to the sentence. I genuinely can't see what you're suggesting.

RE not voting you, I would but believe ZZZX is the stronger case right now. Particularly since you didn't vote him. If my theory is right, then there's a chance you'd bus your goon if you were Godfather, but you wouldn't bus your Godfather.

[Drew-Sta]

i dont think either is probably a real slip, but you guys are pushing it as such

why would i rush to vote someone in LYLO, like 2 hours in?

[Drew-Sta]

i dont think either is probably a real slip, but you guys are pushing it as such

I'm not pushing anything as a slip. ZZZX has said I slipped. You actually said 'why does it look like you've slipped?'

Why do you two keep saying I've scum slipped and yet I cannot for the life of me see what you're talking about?

why would i rush to vote someone in LYLO, like 2 hours in?

Why did you hammer Boon when we were 45 minutes into Daay 2?

Do you realise you and ZZZX were the last two to vote? Within about 10 minutes of each other?

You're completely at odds here. In D1 and D2 you've pushed to lynch anyone for anything, yet now we're looking to push ZZZX you're like 'Oh woah, hang on, lets not rush into things here...'

Are people seeing this?

[Drew-Sta]

from my POV, at least one of you is faking "finding a slip" of the other person being blue.

so it's something that can be faked, and painted as such

wouldn't you question if two people started pointing out what look like slips. unless you think it's a huge cross bus between partners.

I am not 'finding' a slip. Are you even reading what I'm saying? I am suggesting I have

not

slipped. ZZZX is suggesting I

have

slipped.

Why do you two keep saying I've scum slipped and yet I cannot for the life of me see what you're talking about?

I'm definitely voting for you, because what you pointed out about ZZZX slipping is pretty much what ZZZX pointed out about your posts.

I don't see how town-you can't see that.

Huh? I am saying ZZZX is suggesting I have made a slip, I am suggesting I haven't, and I've proposed a theory on what I think is happening (which he is interpretting as a slip?).

Secondly, WHAT IS THE SLIP!

I am not suggesting ZZZX is slipping. I am suggesting ZZZX is attempting to force the final lynch (and you too now) on me, and my angle on ZZZX is based on the evidence I gave in 237 and have built on later.

Are you suggesting my theory is built on me taking a red position looking at blue? I'm arguing that ZZZX is taking a position of arguing from mafia blue point, which became apparent as time went on. I claimed he was mafia EARLIER in 237, and it seems clear to me now that he is blue mafia as he is looking to get the last lynch.

How on earth is that a fucking slip? Its looking at it from the angle of 'who is mafia' and then pairing your behaviour with him as a team. Given the only 'team' left is blue mafia, you're basically setting me up / framing me as how can I, as town, argue against the blue position without falling into the pattern you're suggesting I am getting into?

The issue with finding red mafia is they're essentially an SK now. There is no 'team' to pair them against (except historical, but that is going to be harder to do).

You're trapping me in a logical conundrum by saying my argument against you two is prefaced from a scum-red position; you can trap anyone going for you in that position, therefore, how is that right? You have nothing on me except this claimed 'slip'. I can't defend myself in your paradigm without further entrenching myself in the position you are claiming I am in.

Well played, blue team. Well played.

[Drew-Sta]

Cheers all!
Told you ZzZx was godfather

[Drew-Sta]

Red team, I'm sorry but at least to me you were obvious scum. But props to drew for picking the blue godfather at lylo.

Cheers. Yes, I was completely obv mafia. A dud game from me. The two teams bit had me slipping all over the place. Boon wrote in the dead PT:

Drew's slipping up so bad, haha.

I'm claiming you are red, and Bert is your buddy, because Bert has not voted for you despite me doing so. If Bert was red and you weren't, he'd vote you and his partner would hammer.

Drew, haha.....

Is completely warranted. I had a bad game lol. Glad I picked the godfather though.

Sorry for effectively bussing you by getting Boon killed, Nespresso