Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Setael]

The Town could win this game, but not if you go with Thok's Day 6 assumptions. BM's alignment isn't the only thing he was wrong about. He mistakenly made the assumption that I am mafia because he blocked Fuldu Night 5. He's wrong. I'm vanilla – the town butcher. Either the mafia are choosing to not make NKs in order to avoid being seen, or something else happened, but Thok roleblocking me is not what prevented a NK, because I am not mafia, nor am I a werewolf.

If Thok is right that there's a mafia left (which makes sense) it basically can only be either Tarhalindur or Thok. Akbar is virtually confirmed as the doc, Fritzler and Fonz are confirmed masons. I don't see how ThAdmiral's role could possibly be anti-Town. Assuming that is all true, that means Tarhalindur is either mafia or a werewolf and Thok is either mafia or a werewolf. It's certainly possible that Thok is a scum RB.

I think Thok must have also been wrong about how many werewolves are left. It makes a lot more sense if there's only one left. If there are 2 werewolves left then the second one must be either Akbar or ThAdmiral, both of which I think are extremely unlikely.

[Setael]

I have skimmed the thread. Flay told me I'd be filled in on anything important by the other players since it's such a long, complicated game. No last name - just Gian, the town butcher. As far as ThAdmiral saying he saw me out last night - the only thing that makes sense is that ThAdmiral is either a werewolf or mafia along with his power role. If I was mafia, it makes no sense that I would attempt a night kill knowing that I would be seen

and

that Thok was going to role block me.

[Setael]

I skimmed the entire game and read the last several pages more closely which basically consisted of the wagon on BM. There's no way I could've missed Thok saying he had blocked me the night before and was going to block me again last night.

[Setael]

It would be damning... if it were true. I think it's pretty obvious, however, that I would've had to be a complete idiot to attempt a night kill last night if I were mafia. So, frankly, it's obvious that you're trying to set me up.

Thok hasn't actually done anything to deceive anyone - he just made some wrong assumptions, so I could've been wrong about his alignment, now that ThAdmiral is obviously scum. It could just be ThAdmiral and Tarhalindur as mafia and werewolf. It's still possibly Thok - ThAdmiral, or all 3 of them together if there are still 2 mafia or 2 werewolves.

Let's see how this would play out if you lynch me, which is obviously what ThAdmiral is going to push for. When I come up Town, whoever is mafia will no longer have me as "obvscum" to hide behind so they'll probably start making NKs again. If ThAdmiral is a werewolf, there's a chance whoever is mafia will choose to not NK another night since ThAdmiral will see them. They might NK anyway, since ThAdmiral surely already knows who they are by process of elimination, especially if there are still 2 werewolves. If ThAdmiral is mafia, he will definitely make a NK.

So let's say whoever is mafia makes a NK tonight - I'm guessing once I come up Town Thok will block ThAdmiral, but if Thok thinks Tar is the mafia (or if Thok and ThAdmiral are both wolves) then obviously he won't. It's a lot more likely that ThAdmiral is a werewolf, since his power seems unlikely to be given to a mafia. In that case, either Thok or Tarhalindur or both are mafia. If so, they'd also make a NK and likely succeed, unless Thok isn't aligned with either of them and chooses correctly and blocks the mafia.

We can assume one of the confirmed townies will be NK'd tonight. Let's say it's Fritzler. That leaves The Fonz and Akbar as confirmed townies. Day dawns. You probably have either 2 townies, with 2 werewolves and a mafia or 3 townies with one werewolf and one mafia. That'll be interesting. If the werewolves push for the mafia to be lynched, then it may end up 2 townies and 2 wolves. If there is only 1 wolf left, he'd probably try to get one of the townies lynched, but that puts him at risk to get NK'd the next night. If the mafia chose to NK a townie, it'd then be 1 wolf, 1 townie and 1 mafia. Then what? They both try to convince the townie that they're town? If that's the case, it'll end with one townie and one either mafia or wolf. Would that mean victory for whichever survives of the mafia or wolf? Or is it already over if it ends up 1 townie, 1 mafia, 1 wolf? I've never gotten to lylo with 2 scum groups so I don't know how that works.

So anyway. We can't afford another mislynch if there are either 2 wolves or 2 mafia left. Unless I'm misunderstanding how it works with 2 scum groups, we'd almost certainly lose. If there's only 1 mafia and 1 werewolf, we'd still have a chance at winning if we choose correctly the rest of the time. I'm voting the one person I know is either mafia or a werewolf. I'd rather get the mafia out of the way, and I'm pretty sure ThAdmiral is actually a werewolf, but for all I know one of either Thok or Tar is Town. ThAdmiral is the only one who has blatantly tried to deceive the Town, and must therefore be either a werewolf or mafia.

vote: ThAdmiral

[Setael]

You say I'm doing "I can't possibly be scum" - would you prefer that vanillas say "I could be scum, but I'm not." That doesn't really make sense. I'm not mafia and I'm not a werewolf, so my play is obviously going to be "I can't possibly be scum."

She's also keeping her options extremely open in terms of who can be in what scum group (I would have expected pro-town Setael to go back and try to read to try to get a feel for that.)

I was posting under the assumption that this close to the end, we should be able to figure it out by process of elimination. However, as I wrote that post last night I realized that I do need to read up on Thok and Tarhalindur to find out which one is more likely the last mafia or a werewolf. I'm working on that now. This is an incredibly long thread, but I should be able to post that soon.

1. you may not have realized that you would be tracked even if you were roleblocked (that actually requires a bit of research to verify)

ThAdmiral, be sure to use your broom tonight; the mass-tracking is very likely more helpful than the any inventions you send out.

If you call reading a very obvious statement that was written only a few posts before I replaced in doing quite a bit of research, then I guess I did.

2. it's not as if you can afford to just completely give up on your night kill

That is exactly what mafia is doing. They know they will be seen and so they are not making a night kill. It actually makes a lot of sense. It also is an excellent argument for why ThAdmiral is more likely a werewolf than mafia. If he was mafia, he would have no reason to not make night kills. However, if he is a werewolf and not seeing anyone at night because no one is making a night kill, why not frame someone?

3. I only said I would try to block scum last night (and not necessarily celtic/you), and you might have hoped that I chose to block Tarhalidur.

You were convinced that the reason there had been no NK was because you had blocked me. There could be no doubt reading over the last few pages that you would block me again last night.

[Setael]

The witches have been true to us up to this point. If they were scummers, why would they give us the magic items, instead of handing them off to each other?

I guess so that you'd trust them implicitly come lylo.

[Setael]

That puts me at -1. I can't tell if Thok is once again intentionally pushing a Townie mislynch, or if he really doesn't know and is just Town voting for the wrong person. Regardless, even if I am mislynched, there's a good possibility the Town can still win, especially if I'm wrong about how many bad guys are still alive.

Thok was certain yesterday that there would still be at least 2 werewolves and a mafia. He doesn't seem to be emphasizing that very much, now.
@Thok: Have you decided you were wrong about there being 2 werewolves left, or do you think one of the claimed roles is actually a werewolf?

If there are indeed still 2 werewolves AND a mafia, then if you mislynch me, the Town will likely lose. If that's not the case, and there is only a mafia and one werewolf or some other combination, then well... I really don't know who to suggest you go after tomorrow. Both ThAdmiral and Thok's play has seemed Town so either they're really good at sounding Town when they're not, or Tarhalindur is the only scum left. I don't see any reason to doubt Akbar's claim so I don't think it's possible he's scum. Is there any chance there are no werewolves left, and only one mafia?

[Setael]

@Setael-if there were no werewolves left, who ate Lowell?

Good point. This means that either you, Tarhalindur, or ThAdmiral are a werewolf (and possibly two of you are a werewolf).

It seems as though you are laughing at me for trying to discover who the actual mafia are. I would say "You won't feel so smug when I come up Town" but if you are scum, you will have every reason to feel smug. As you just pointed out, there is a lot more reason to lynch Tarhalindur than to lynch me. It's quite scummy to keep your vote on me and leave me vulnerable to a Tarhalindur hammer, when you have just shown him to be obvscum.

[Setael]

Tough role to replace into. Pretty much a lost cause, but still fun!