Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Tarhalindur]

Hi. I need to reread the whole thread.

From what I have read, I seem to recall that Raffles did not claim. I'm the Blacksmith (vanilla townie). Further flavor can be provided if needed.

[Tarhalindur]

*Takes a break from rereading, glances over the last few pages*

Okay. From my perspective, either someone is lying or Lucius Lovato is not in the game at all, in which case the Mafia has been wiped out.

For now, we need to kill unconfirmed players (yes, I know that I'm unconfirmed, doesn't matter - my job is to find scum and increase chances of town victory, not to survive). I'll need to look over all public information and see if anyone other than BM/Fuldu/myself is unconfirmed (esp. Thok). As for removing unconfurmed players, Battle Mage seems like a good place to start (especially since I strongly distrust BM in the late game, for metagame reasons).

Vote: Battle Mage

[Tarhalindur]

Upon further review, I think that we may well have wiped out the mafia. 15-3-3 doesn't seem too imbalanced for this kind of game (esp. with this game being effectively no-reveal), and the only ways that I can see a fourth mafioso in the game are if ThAdmiral is a scum Witch and Thok is a scum blocker, which I consider unlikely; Alx as dead scummason + Thok as scum blocker, which is all-but-impossible if masons are mod-confirmed innocent; or 2x scum mason with both lying about mod confirmation, which seems unlikely and should sort itself out on its own.

Lynch BM today, lynch me or Fuldu tomorrow and the player left over two days from now and we *should* win. Hell, lynch me first and lynch the other two over the next two days and we should still win.

Aaaand... there's the big red thing.

I don't understand what you're trying to say here.

Also, just for confirmation: Masons are mod-confirmed innocent, right? I'm pretty sure I saw Greg confirm this, but I would still like confirmation from the other Mason all the same.

[Tarhalindur]

*takes a break from reading, glances over last 2 pages*

So, unless ThAdmiral is lying, we can be pretty sure that Setael is lying scum.

Anyone have anything they want to add

(Side note: from my perspective, unless I'm missing something, the only way that this setup makes sense is if both of the claimed ESE members are actually lying scum. I'll look over this for support when I get a chance.)

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: Anyone have anything they want to have before I drop the hammer?

[Tarhalindur]

I tried to get up this post yesterday, but I was prevented by doing so by the quicklynch (which I don't believe was an accident - I think that Thok knew exactly what he was doing, for reasons I'll explain below).

From my perspective, Thok and Akbar pretty much have to be the wolves by process of elimination. Here's the reasoning:

There are probably two remaining wolves: there cannot be three surviving wolves, since the game isn't over; I find it very hard to believe that there are fewer than three wolves, given the size of the game; and I see no dead players outside MoS whose role is consistent with being a wolf.

I know that I'm not scum. This is, from my perspective, beyond debate.

Upon further review, I believe that I was mistaken yesteday, and that the surviving masons can't be scum - the death scene for the dead ESE member doesn't make sense if he's scum, the ESE members have claimed mod confirmation, and if the masons were scum they would probably have speedlynched yesterday.

That means that it's almost certain that two of {Thok, Akbar, thAdmiral} are wolves. Of these three, thAdmiral is the least likely to be scum, IMO - his claim is corroborated by Kison (who also claimed mod confirmation), and I have difficulty seeing the wolves get access to the most powerful role in the game given the apparent power of the Mafia.

If thAdmiral is, in fact, town, then Akbar is almost certainly scum, possibly scum Doc. I find it extremely difficult to believe that we have a mason group with an incredibly good investigative ability and a doctor in the same game - frankly, I think that the witch-masons were intended to compensate for the lack of a doctor (and standard cop).

This leaves Thok as scum by PoE. As support to this, note that his claimed ability is fairly standard on scum, and also note the ease with which he seems to be picking up on scum mechanics in this game (I'm reminded of Space Monkeys Mafia, where Glork-scum confirmed the core mechanic of the game shortly after PJ speculated about it).

This implies a setup with 4 mostly-vanilla Mafia, 3 wolves with power roles, and a moderately powerful town. This makes a lot of sense to me - look at PS2 mafia, which had a very similar setup (4 mostly-vanilla Nintendo mafia vs. 3 Microsoft mafia with power roles - if I'm right, the big difference is that this game lacks an SK, which is made up for by the partial-reveal mechanic and a somewhat lower town power level).

The big fly in the ointment is thAdmiral. I want to hear his results now, since it's relevant for my analysis.

[Tarhalindur]

It would appear that the chance of me winning a game is inversely proportional to the amount of effort I put into it.

Interesting.