Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[The Greg]

Hello everyone. I read the thread in advance, so I'm relatively up to speed about what's going on. I'll do a more in-depth analysis and post my thoughts later, but it seems that there is a more pressing matter to attend to at the moment: N9V's claim. I'll believe it, because I don't see any reason why he'd lie this early as scum. I'd like some more information from him:

Do you know what you find? (wolves? mafia?)

Do you know your sanity?

Who did you investigate N1?

Why did you investigate IH night two? It seems that there were better choices for investigation, like Raffles, DGB, and PBug.

Until I can be sure of your sanity, I'll withhold my vote.

On a separate note, I too am interested to see how Akbar responds to Shanba.

[The Greg]

2) Even if you reveal an innocent investigation, it will help us. The wolves won't kill the innocent person, because they don't want to confirm IH's guilt (or vice versa, depending on your sanity). Other scum *might* target the innocent person, but that just means that we're trading one innocent for a guaranteed guilty. Since we don't know your sanity, we might even get lucky by having scum kill the guilty person, so we don't even have to waste a lynch.

I am probably being stupid, but after today, if we do lynch IH, what is to stop the scum from KN'ng the innocent? Once IH is lynched and confirned scum, there should be little concern for N9V's sanity. At which point there will be no reason for the scum to hold off killing the innocent.

That's under the assumption, though, that N9V is sane and IH is scum. If we lynch IH and he turn up non-wolf, and then N9V gets killed, we'll have no idea who the person he found innocent was, who must be scum since N9V was insane to find IH guilty. Also, keep in mind that N9V's "innocent" is by no means guaranteed pro-town, even if he is sane. They're merely non-wolf, but could easily be a mafioso, SK, cult memeber, etc.

[The Greg]

Yeah, the only reason I'm not voting yet is because I want to hear from Akbar and IH.

[The Greg]

Ok, what the hell? From what I can tell, IH was town. Now, ~N9V~ is either scum and lying, or an insane cop of some sort.

IH might have been a miller, maybe even a GF; the lynch scene was pretty vague as to his alignment.

We know that someone also killed Mastermind of Sin. Since our Vigilante is dead, I'm going to guess that it was the ESE?

I find it highly unlikely that ESE is responsible for that kill. The MoS kill is inconsistent flavor-wise with what we know of ESE.

Also, I find it interesting that the color coding of dead roles seems to have stopped. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[The Greg]

-IH is a reverse Godfather, otherwise known as Miller. Not likely, his death certificate made no mention of it. Unlike Alex and MoS that plainly identified their faction.

I think its quite possible that IH was a miller. None of the roles so far except Lycanthrope (MoS) have been explicit, but the flavor of IH's role strongly implies either GF or miller.

[The Greg]

On N9V: I think its more likely that he's telling the truth and IH was a miller.

As for Raffles, there is one thing I'd like to point out: If N9V is to be believed, he's not mafia. MoS, who turned out to be a wolf, pushed pretty hard for Raffles' lynch on D2, so its unlikely that Raffles is a wolf. That puts him out of both main scum groups.

However, this doesn't rule him being part of a third scum group. He seemed pretty dead set against there being more than 2 scum groups on D2. His insistence that there is no cult worries me, and he argued against analyzing the night scene. I suspect he's either a serial killer (trying to attribute his N1 kill to a known scum group) or a cult member/leader (trying to persuade the town that there is no cult).

Vote: Raffles

MOD: Please prod bird1111

[The Greg]

Okay, this game is pretty hard to get a grip on. I don't think that The Fonz is being manipulative, just outspoken, and I happen to agree with several of his points. First, it seems clear to me that we are indeed in a limited reveal game. We're just not getting much solid information on the deceased, so we have to rely on flavor pretty heavily to deduce anything from the death scenes.

Also, while I don't think that N9V should be given a free pass, I don't think he's the correct lynch at this time. If a cop comes up dead or counterclaims, we'll know to look pretty closely at N9V. (Note that I'm not suggesting that the real cop (if N9V isn't it) counterclaim at this time. Only when he feels he has enough information to make it worth claiming.)

As for bird, it's possible he has a posting restriction, but I doubt it, because that would mean both he and Mr. Flay were silenced in the same day. I still think Raffles is a good play for today. As I've stated before, I strongly suspect he is in a third scum group, and while I consider N9V being insane to be unlikely, a Raffles lynch will account for the possibility that he is. Be that as it may, bird

needs

to contribute.

Unvote; Vote: bird1111

[The Greg]

No, I suspect Raffles as well. I just voted for bird because thought it was important for him to contribute.

Starting later tonight, I will have no internet access until Saturday, June 30, so I will

unvote

since I don't like having a vote that I can't monitor or control.

[The Greg]

No prod necessary, I'm here. Just confused as hell. I'll go back and reread and attempt to organize my discordant thoughts.

[The Greg]

Well, looking through Akbar and The Fonz's argument was a pain. I'd say that both look like town, just with differing viewpoints. I wouldn't be entirely against a mass claim, but now is almost certainly too early. Tomorrow it might be viable (and it will sort out the N9V situation).

Based on PBuG's actions, I'd say that bird1111 is likely to be scum, and even if he isn't he needs to be pressured into talking. I don't want to add my vote at this time, since scum could hammer before he speaks for himself, and he's got enough votes to be lynched at deadline anyway (he has 5 votes, right?). I would like to make it clear, though, that I am completely behind the bird wagon, and the only reason I'm not on it is because I don't want to give scum the ability to hammer him before he can defend himself.

[The Greg]

Just popping in to say a couple things:

1.) I have never seen any strange occurrences at night.

2.) I would not be opposed to a mass claim after PBuG returns/in replaced

[The Greg]

@Kison or PBuG:Are you guaranteed of each others' alignment?

[The Greg]

I'm prepared to claim if somebody can explain why now is the time for us to do so.

Why now is a good time to mass claim

• We have lost or outed enough power roles that mass claiming is likely to help us more than hurt us.
  
• We've lost one cop and
  may
  have another who can investigate dodgy claims.
  
• If we have masons, its best to claim while they are still alive and can confirm each other.

[The Greg]

I am in favor of Raffles claiming next.

[The Greg]

For the record, I don't find The Fonz asking for Fuldu to claim first to be scummy. I do, however, disagree with him. I'm having a hard time getting a read on Lowell, and getting a claim now would be preferable to later.

[The Greg]

I suppose its my turn then. I'm The Fonz's ESE masonbuddy.

[The Greg]

Yes, our roles confirm each other as innocent.

[The Greg]

lol thanks for that Kison. However, whilst i may be incredibly thick, YOU are incredibly illiterate, as my post said Akbar did not submit an action on ONE NIGHT, not NIGHT ONE.
So my question remains, but this time, please at least understand it before handing out the mandatory insult.

ok, call me incredibly thick, but if Akbar was a Doctor, why didnt he protect someone on 1 night? Roleblocking doesnt fit, and i cant really see any other explanation.

FoS: Akbar

Battle

Mafia

Mage,

you are incredibly thick!

First of all, PBuG and I did not LOOK for anyone night one. We handed out gifts. I assume you assume that Akbar did not protect someone because I did not list his name for night one.

Second of all, Akbar

did

protect someone night one.

The first night I protected SV(now The Fonz). The 2nd night was PBuG. Tonight will be PBuG again.

I had the same reaction, but upon a re-read, I saw that Akbar mentioned that something happened which prevented him from protecting that night, but he was mod-forbidden to tell what it was.

[The Greg]

Sorry, thought I had already voted. However before, I would like to know why BM refuses to vote. If you have a reason to think that Theoper is likely town (or more likely than Akbar, at least) speak now. Do you have a reason to disbelieve Akbar's claim?

[The Greg]

Sorry, thought I had already voted. However before, I would like to know why BM refuses to vote. If you have a reason to think that Theoper is likely town (or more likely than Akbar, at least) speak now. Do you have a reason to disbelieve Akbar's claim?

well obviously...
He has claimed Doctor, and yet we have certifiable proof that he hasn't used his role every night, which strongly indicates that he is lying. When confronted with this, he brings up the incredibly unlikely story of "The Mod forbade me from saying". A Doc-Claim ofc is always a weak one, as it is an ideal fakeclaim for scum. This in addition to Akbar's general dubious behaviour, make him a much better lynch than Theo for today at least.

Oh and if it matters, i could also see Thok as scum (simply down to his claim of 'Butcher', and his general reluctance to claim originally.

BM

Keep in mind night Kison's N2 results. Both Mafia(bird) and Wolves(MoS) had people out that night, and Akbar was also out, so he's neither Mafia nor Wolf.

Now that I've seen your reasoning, I see no reason to withhold my vote any longer.

Vote: theopor_COD