Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Thok]

Hi all, doing some reading. I will comment about Fonz's comments for now.

unvote, vote XreyoX

Yes, I know it's a bit of a dick move to vote someone who's just requested replacement. But a re-read of MoS reveals a lot of posts which could be seen as coaching, and I want the replacement to arrive under a little pressure.

A read of the posts shows that XreyoX was much more suspicious of MOS then MOS was of XreyoX. This is a scum tell, but for MOS rather than XreyoX. (The point is that MOS's buddying/coaching could either be scum trying to protect a partner or scum trying to build a connection to a somebody who's not a member of his scum team; .)

The Fonz, why are you so certain that ~N9V~ isn't the play? (I don't believe he's the play, but your posts strike me as being more defensive of him then possibly should be warranted.)

[Thok]

OK, let me ask the same question a completely different way. If ~N9V~ wasn't a claimed cop, what would you think of him?

[Thok]

The Fonz, what do you think about my response to your reasons for voting me?

[Thok]

The Fonz, what do you think about my response to your reasons for voting me?

It was pretty good, but I wouldn't expect a vet player replacing in to drop a huge scumtell immediately, so it's not enough in itself to have me move my vote. If anything, I see your having seen the need to ask this question this quickly as more revealing than the first post itself.

The reason I asked you is that you appeared to me to be ignoring my comments about that issue. Since from what I can tell your claimed connection between MOS and my predecessor is the major reason for your vote on me, it seems strange that you basically ignored my arguments against that (especially when combined with you essentially going "Look, my reason is interesting! Really interesting! It justifies me placing a vote!" in the meantime.)

[Thok]

I see no reason for me to vote for PBug, or ~N9V~ ever and no reason for me to vote for Akbar at this moment. (Akbar's clearly giving off a frustrated townie vibe at the moment.) Given how the discussion is going, I suspect The Fonz of being scum [possibly ESE scum] and if that is the case then Raffles is probably in a different scum group from The Fonz (I'd be shocked if Raffles and The Fonz were scum together, as The Fonz has been more blatant in arguing against lynching Raffles then I'd expect a scum partner to be).

Now I only need to figure out how I feel about 7 more people.

A couple quick comments on things The Fonz said (a lot of stuff that I feel is overly complicated nonsense has been cut out):

1. Al's deathscene was written in black, not red as you claimed.

The ESE membership card is specifially written in red. What do you think that means?

(I find it possible that the ESE is actually some sort of millerish S&M club; I find that more likely then a mayor being millerish.)

2. Mafia do not, in general, carry membership cards.

In general, werewolves do not show up in real life. We need some storyline mechanic to describe how we recognize mafia. Membership cards are as reasonable as any other technique. It's called suspension of disbelief. They've been used in mafia games before.

[Thok]

Oh, thank you, Akbar. Now I get to be nightkilled. I'm pretty much sure giving you that WAS a mistake, seeing as how you weren't even in your home the next night. How do I know, you ask? Well, the other perk of my role is that I can choose to, instead of giving a rune away, I get to fly around and find out who was out of their homes. You were out of your home Night 2.

That was the night Shanba attacked Akbar, right? Would that cause Akbar to be kept outside his house?

Do we want PBug to dump his list of people who were out and about night 2?

[Thok]

Before Akbar gets run up, I want to make sure that PBug actually understands what his role does, and that Akbar gave us the correct information about the runes. After Evolution Mafia, I'm not going to blindly follow PBug until he double checks the info he got from his role.

In addition, I'll note that if Akbar was scum, his scum group has had at least two nights to kill PBug.

[Thok]

Agreed. As far as I can see, it has all the disadvantages of a mass claim, without any of the advantages, since it allows any scum PBuG has seen to formulate a fakeclaim based on what he says, rather than having everyone claim roles first, then reveal information.

Fair enough. I think it really depends on how many people PBug has seen outside their houses already; if he's seen enough to imply that certain people are scum, we should know that info.

I actually think Akbar makes an extremely good point about PBuG still being alive. It doesn't make a lot of sense for a scum role who's been given the identity of a town power role not to kill him.

Then again, he has been caught in a lie.

What no "Akbar's claimed doc we must must must keep him alive?"

My personal feeling is to let scum deal with Akbar at night, now that's he's painted a big bulls-eye on himself. I'm pretty sure that he's a frustrated protown player, albeit one who's playing poorly.

Of his claim, the only thing that causes me concern is his comments about night 3, which support his claim (I wouldn't expect Akbar to throw in traces of weirdness out of nowhere, but the fct that the weirdness exists is a separate concern).

[Thok]

The Fonz, the difference is that your only justification for keeping N9V around is his cop claim, otherwise he's a giant neutral to you. I was already defending Akbar because of the tone I got from his posts (and because of the tone I saw from his attackers); in fact you'll noticed in post 1565 that I was certain enough of Akbar's protownishness that I thought something else was going on. In other words, I'm giving reasons other than "Akbar is a power role" to keep him around; you seem to be slavishly going "must defend claimed power role".

[Thok]

Given what PBug's said, I see no reason to move my vote.

[Thok]

Also, given what PBug has said, a birdscum lynch should help us figure out what's going on with the whole Mafia/ESE thing (as we know he didn't commit the wolf-kill, as MOS did that).

Phoebus

can we get prods on BM, N9V, The Greg, Lowell, Raffles, and bird1111?

[Thok]

Heh, I mean nothing for me. Your trying to decide who to lynch, and i thinkbird is a badidea. I thinkBM should be lynched, for obvious resons. Other than that, your still trying to decide wether or not I'm the real deal. Like i said, nothing to comment on in my perspective.

Dear ~N9V~,

Please stop being the most worthless person ever in the history of online mafia.

Thank you,

Thok

(On a serious note, do you have reason to believe that PBug is lying about or misinterpreting his info? Or do you have any reason to believe that bird1111 is town?)

[Thok]

PBug, got stuff to talk about?

Given that it looks like bird1111 was actually mafia, (Mistress of Lucius Lovato seems to point in that direction, when combined with the first scene), I'm willing to assume ESE isn't mafia for the time being.

vote Raffles

as a place holder.

[Thok]

Massclaim today Thok? Or not?

Not sure. I think we can afford to postpone it one day. It depends on what info we get from other sources.

[Thok]

I agree with the above post.

I think it's worthwhile for me to say that I saw something involving someone on a broom last night. I don't want to go into the full details about the event at the moment.

[Thok]

I have my reasons for not fully disclosing the full details. I'll say more when the relevant person talks.

[Thok]

I saw the same strange occurence

Have you seen previous strange occurances?

[Thok]

Feh, I'll get this day moving again.

The person I saw on the broom was not PBug. (I saw the relevant person get off the broom.) I've got a fairly good guess about why this happened, but I'm not certain of it.

(I've been holding back because I wanted to test PBug/the person on the broom/possibly theodor about this issue. I've decided that testing PBug isn't important, and this is the best way to test the other two people.)

Also, if you haven't said anything about previous strange occurances, there is no good reason to start talking about them now.

[Thok]

Thok, are you saying PBuG is lying to us? Also, if what you're saying is true,

what

exactly were you intending to test for with regards to the person you claim to have seen?

I don't believe PBug is lying. (I believe there are better alternative explanations for this that are consistent with what we've already heard in the thread.)

Theodor's said things that make it likely he's gotten at least part of PM that I received.

I was sort of hoping the person I saw get off the broom would admit to it, and possibly help move the day along.

FOS Kison

[Thok]

Thanks... That could have been avoided, since Theopor, at least, hadn't seen who it was. The FoS is also pointless.

UNFOS Kison

, pending PBug confirming the story. I was worried that PBug had sent you a broom, and that you were scum trying to deny what happened; if you read your posts they come off that way. I was also vaguely worried about a witch cult, but decided that was silly (cultists don't give out items).

I will say that you/PBug are in less danger then you think you are.

I agree with your assessment of theodor.

[Thok]

Thok, are you in favor of a mass claim at this point?

I'm meh about it. I can see why it might be a good idea.

[Thok]

@theodor-why didn't you consider hiding with PBug, who was an unlikely target (as Akbar was claimed to be protecting him)?

@Battle Mage-can you confirm or deny theodor's story?

[Thok]

Seperately Thok was last night the first night you saw the broom?

I've (well my role) has seen it before. XReyoX mentioned this before I replaced him. I do not feel like revealing exactly when I've seen the broom (although if one of Kison/PBug requests that info, I would be willing to tell them).

[Thok]

The thing is that Phoebus was extremely clear with Mastermind of Sin's alignment. I don't see any reason why that would be clear, and people like IH and Bird1111 would be unclear. Personally, I think ESE is scum, not cult. Based on my sightings, I don't think there even

is

a cult.

If

there is a cult, I think al4x was the only member at the time of his death.

Read the early flavor posts; there's reason to believe that the mafia is Lovato flavored, which makes bird1111 likely mafia.

[Thok]

Ok, Thok, if you think that Bird1111 was scum, what do you think al4x, was? I haven't read the flavor you're talking about yet, but will do so tomorrow.

Don't know for sure. Could be millerish (that fits the whole ESE thing better then what else I've seen).

[Thok]

If we massclaim, I'm happy to go first.

I'd prefer one of PBug/Kison to choose any order. They have the most info.

[Thok]

Sigh. You've almost certainly seen me out all three nights that you've been out (given that I've seen you all three nights you've claimed to be out), and a clever person should be able to deduce what my role is from what's happening in the thread. Do you really want me to claim now?

[Thok]

that sounds ominous. After my claim, i'd like an 'actual' claim from Thok, unless Kison is absolutely CERTAIN that Thok is town, and can vouch for him 100%.

I'm sorry, you aren't the close to confirmed innocent. I'll go when Kison or PBug tells me to go and not sooner.

[Thok]

you are surely aware that massclaims do not only occur when there are confirmed innocents. Rather Kison and PBug have been given the right to choose the claim order. You were asked to claim, and have not done so. Thus i think it is fair to

Vote: Thok

until such a time as you do so.

I asked permission from Kison to go later, with a partial explanation on why I should go later, and he agreed to it. Had he chosen to make me go early in the claim order, I would have done so. Moreover, you almost certainly have less information than either me or Kison on this subject. For all you know, Kison may plan on having me go after you claim anyways.

I don't believe you are the play today (theodor's claim is a slight plus for you, no matter what his alignment is), but that doesn't mean I have to listen to you.

[Thok]

tbh, if you aren't willing to listen to people if they aren't absolutely 100% town, you must be a real bastard in small games. lol

No, I'm not listening to you because I don't see any evidence of good logic from you on this subject. You clearly have less information about this subject than either Kison or me (and it's clear you haven't tried to analyze the info I have given.) If you really think that I should claim soon, you should try to convince Kison why he should overrule his better judgement and make me claim earlier.

(As an aside, I'll note that if anybody does have a guess for what role I am, they should keep quiet about it until the claim is over.)

I'll point out that this is not the only time this game you haven't shown good judgement (losing your role PM, voting N9V all of yesterday).

BM-can you at least tell us what you do remember from your role? i.e. you may not have the exact flavor, but surely you remember what sort of possible role powers you have (to some extent).

[Thok]

I have already given Kison a damn good reason.

If he cannot vouch 100% for your alignment, a claim is required.

there is only 1 possible scenario in which i would agree that you claiming is a bad idea, but you haven't so much as hinted at it, and even if you did, i'm not sure i'd believe you just from your behaviour.

The bolded line isn't true. We wouldn't even be having this argument if Kison hadn't asked me to claim first (which IMHO was a mistake by him). What's the difference between him not asking me to claim first, and him asking me to claim first and then changing his mind and him allowing me to claim later when persuaded by my argument?

[Thok]

I think i'm vanilla here, but i'll go and check now.

The fact that he doesn't even remember whether or not he's vanilla is what disturbs me most. I want his full claim before moving on. Phoebus gave us a vote count, so Battle Mage shouldn't have any excuses for delaying.

I think this is an overly hostile interpretation of this post. I would expect BMscum to just make up a fake role. (I also suspect he's less likely to have discarded his PM as scum-vanilla townie is the most likely scenario for him to throw it out).

I'd need to check out more BM games to verify this, but the feeling I get is that the best tell for BMtown vs scum is internal consistency; i.e. if he's consistent with himself as the day goes on. From what I can tell, BM has been passing that test with flying colors.

I've also been burnt by this logic before; Masterchief was lynched day 1 in PS2sux partially because he lost his role PM (he was town).

[Thok]

could somebody please remind me why Kison and PBuG are absolutely 100% confirmed town?

They've got claimed confirmable roles (which has been confirmed by multiple people [their flying with a broom has been confirmed by me, Akbar, Theodor, and Shanba (and possibly others I've missed), while their inventions have been confirmed by Akbar]). They've handed us at least one person who is almost certainly scum (bird1111).

They're not 100% confirmed, but they are fairly unlikey to be scum.

[Thok]

Battle Mage, that vote just broke my brain.

I do agree with the needs for prods. Raffles in particular needs to either post, be replaced, or be modkilled.

[Thok]

I hold out hope that you can do something more productive day 5 of a big game than OMGUS vote.

[Thok]

Then you ought to provide a reason that isn't OMGUS.

(Also, Akbar's a claimed doctor, a claim that's partially verified by Kison/PBug.)

[Thok]

Bumping over a few dead games.

Phoebus, can we get any word on if you still exist?

Kison, much as I hate to say it, but we may have to skip Raffles for now. Given that we are mass claiming, there are players I want to hear a claim from other than Raffles.

[Thok]

Since I'm like one of four people who regular posts in this game, I figure I should say right now that I am mostly indifferent to the claim order as long as we keep getting people to claim, with the exception that I actually care about when I claim. (This isn't quite true, but I'll say more when it's relevant.)

[Thok]

BM, stop being an idiot and unvote yourself. I have absolutely no desire to lynch you today and lynching you would only hurt activity, not help it.

[Thok]

Yes, we know that the two of you aren't fond of each other. Yay! It's gut versus logic, with two people ending up trying to metagame themselves to death.

Given Lowell's "hunch" vote on The Fonz, I don't think they are aligned (and therefore, I'm not particularly concerned about Fonz's request). I don't really think having the order be Fuldu-Lowell or Lowell-Fuldu or throwing in any other combo of other people will make that much of a difference.

Too many people are lurking for my tastes.

The Greg, name two people you feel are likely mafia and two people you feel are likely wolf. I get the feeling that you're just periodically showing up to the thread and buddying up with people to make yourself look better than you actually are.

[Thok]

I'm here, do you want me to claim now?

Yes.

[Thok]

Lowell, what's the flavor justification for your role powers (i.e, what's the story explaining them)?

[Thok]

Much as I hate to go before Raffles, I probably should go now.

I'm Milo the town lout. I'm effectively a roleblocker (my drunken rantings scare people back into their houses).

Choices:

Night 1. DrippingGoofball
Night 2. Zindy/Lowell
Night 3. N9V (this roleblock has been verified by N9V himself)
Night 4. The Greg

Obviously, I can't explain XReyox's reasoning for the first three choices. For last night, I felt that the Greg was being too agreeable in the posts that I saw.

Also, it should be noted that on nights 2 and 4 we only had one kill. If you feel I am protown, that's a mark against Lowell and The Greg (although given the kill method, it suggests they are wolves rather than mafia).

Fonz, The Greg, do your roles confirm each others innocence? Are scum masons a viable situation here?

[Thok]

There are a bunch of reasons I could see for a lack of a second killer last night. One of the scum groups may have been scared of being seen killing, so a delibarate no kill is a possibility. Alternatively, a scum group may be able to day kill (I assume that's what happened with Mr. Flay.) Alternatively Raffles might be the last person in his scum group and didn't submit a night choice. Heck, it could even be the case MOS was scum all by himself but had some weird recruiting ability. I'm not really willing to guess which of these is correct.

[Thok]

I think he's probably the lynch for today.

[Thok]

I am confused by this discussion. I don't think it says anything about Lowell, at least not any more then the fact that town seems to have 6 confirmed people out of 11 (me, Akbar, and the two sets of two masons are all likely protown), with 1 (maybe 2, depending on what happens with BM) out of those 5 being under threat of modkill.

unvote Raffles, vote Theopor

[Thok]

Occam's Razor suggests that the cat and Akbar's mysterious roleblock Night 3 are connected.

Kison, just to clarify, who of you/PBug are going out on the broom tonight? I solely want this information to be public so that Akbar knows who to protect.

[Thok]

so you actually think Akbar is a Doc?

We know (through Kison/PBug) that Akbar has been out at night at least twice, and that all kills for one of those nights has already been accounted for.

We also know that nobody else has claimed to be a doc, and that Akbar has reasonable flavor for his claim.

We also have as evidence that PBug didn't die last night; if Akbar wasn't a doc, his scum group needed to take out the only mass tracker who was known to be around last night.

[Thok]

Bump. Where are people? Does anybody have anything useful to say? Why aren't more people voting theopor?

[Thok]

According to Kison, unless scum have suddenly developed the ability to go out at night without being detected, the only three people who could have possibly made the kill last night are me, Akbar, or you. Akbar and I have both been out other nights, and we are basically known not to have made the kills for those nights.

If you didn't make the kill, then who did? And how did they do it without being seen?

Why would you go out hiding on a night when you weren't likely to be killed (N9V and Akbar were more likely kill choices) and on a night when it could easily confuse the mass tracker that had already given us one scum? Why didn't you drop a breadcrumb to indicate that ability before using it?

[Thok]

Battle Mage, please stop refusing to BUS your partner.

BM probably isn't partners with Theopor, mainly because I can't see theopor building such an obvious connection between the two of them with the hider claim if they were scum together. I could see them being on opposite scum teams (which given the kill types means Theo=mafia and BM=wolf). I could also see BM being a particulary dumb townie.

[Thok]

As regards Thok's questions above - I've already indicated why I felt safer hiding last night, it's WIFOM in a regard but with two scum killing groups present I felt they'd attack someone unlikely to get any protection. I wasn't clued up on breadcrumbing when I joined this game, hence didn't do so.

Um, no. Last night scum knew about Pbug-tracker, Akbar-doctor, and N9V-cop. There was no chance scum was going to be targetting randomly, as they had to mash through a whole bunch of power roles.

[Thok]

Can we finish the massclaim before we lynch anyone, please!

The only person we're waiting for is Raffles, who needs to be replaced, is likely to be modkilled, and is Kison verified to not have done anything last night.

[Thok]

The amount of power roles/confirmables does worry me a bit. I took a look at a previous Phoebus game (Norse Myth Mafia) a week or two ago because of this issue and that game had a similar power level, although it was fairly clearly unbalanced somewhat towards town. But, for example, it had things like masonries with added abilities.

[Thok]

I'm pretty sure that BM was the hammer, actually.

[Thok]

I blocked Fuldu (now celtic) last night. [For a quick explanation of my choice of roleblock, on various rereads Fuldu struck me as the most likely mafia by process of elimination. I'll explain in more detail if people want me to.] The lack of a mafia kill strongly suggests he's Lucius Lovato, the last mafia.

BM and Raffles (now Tarhalindur) are probably both werewolves.

Unfortunately, ThAdmiral can't confirm this (I got an item last night, which means he probably didn't use his broomstick).

It looks like the daykills are a form of werewolf kill.

[Thok]

Nice work Thok. I was suspicious of Fuldu(Celtic18) & BM to begin with. Especially after BM tried to save Theopor. But, the roleblock is pretty convincing. Without Kison, they knew I'd be covering Pbug(ThAdmiral). So they had to come after me. I'd be willing to vote either one of them. What makes you think Fuldu is the last mafia?

Since Fuldu was the person I blocked, he's mafia unless somebody decided to kill ThAdmiral last night.

A long discussion of what I thought about last night (including some stuff I got from rereading various people).

All of me/Akbar/ThAdmiral/Fonz/The Greg are basically guaranteed protown. (With me/Akbar having a slightly weaker case than TheAdmiral/Fonz/The Greg at this point).

Since I believe Lucius Lovato is a role in this game, we have at least one mafia left. We've already seen 3 certain mafia (Flay, bird, theopor), and whatever was up with IH. I doubt we have 5+whatever IH was mafia.

At this point we had only seen 1 wolf. We likely have at least 2 more of those left.

Given that 1. wolves seem to have some ability to daykill, 2. there's likely more wolves than mafia left, I tried to figure out who was mafia, as that blocking the hypothetical last mafia would be more likely to actually stop a kill.

There were solid reasons for Raffles/BM to not be mafia.

Raffles made comments about there likely being 4 or 6 scum in the game (back when he was on the Over The Under wagon: it was part of his explanation for putting OTU at lynch -6). That suggests he is part of a 3 person scum group (4=3 scum+1 SK, 6=3 scum +3 scum and he shouldn't know the size of any scum groups at that point) and that group has to be the werewolves, since the mafia appears to have more than 3 people in it. He also had an a not mafia investigation on him. Also, theopor's desire to force a Raffles role claim yesterday suggest Raffles is not mafia. Also, mafia would have used Raffles to commit the kill last night if he was mafia; people were already suspicious of him, so there wasn't much risk in letting Kison see him kill people.

BM-theopor yesterday suggested BM is not mafia. There was no reason for the two of them to try to build a connection between each other if they are on the same team. BM also was never really fond of a Raffles wagon, which suggests he is a wolf.

That left Fuldu/Lowell to choose from. I suspected that the black cat was a possible cause of the day kills (which is a not mafia argument); also Lowell had a better name claim than Fuldu. I also got a strong "not werewolf" feel from Fuldu's posts (particularly his attacks on Raffles).

[Thok]

Huh? Theo came up as scum. He lied about his role name (he claimed to be a blind beggar, not a butler at the estate) and the lynch scene all but said he was scum.

[Thok]

Note, I want ThAdmiral to confirm what he did last night, but I think we now need to lynch BM today; I don't want scum to get a chance to use an item that might give them the ability to get an extra vig or protection from lynch.

(I'm actually annoyed by ThAdmiral's choices. Fonz and The Greg were obvious choices to be sent items, if you weren't going to be flying on a broom.)

[Thok]

I dont understand what Thok is saying atall. I also dont see how he can be telling the truth about recieving an item. Furthermore he seems very eager to rush into a lynch without hearing from the relevant players.

BM

The last time items appeared, it was a result of the witch sisters, who sent out two items in one night. I'm surprsied that ThAdmiral can send out two items again (rather than just one for the one living witch sister), but it's not unreasonable.

I'm not actually rushing a lynch. I haven't voted for you yet (and I won't until ThAdmiral verifies what he did last night), but it's clear as day to me who the remaining scum are and what the scum groups are. We have 8 alive, of which I'm convinced 5 are town, so as a town, we will win as long as we lynch the remaining 3 people in a reasonable order and I keep blocking scum to limit night kills.

[Thok]

For reference ThAdmiral, I replaced XreyoX.

Here is a list of all roleclaims (except for Raffles, whose replacment just claimed Blacksmith/Vanilla) in handy dandy form.

I can confirm I got something called The Almighty Orb of Awareness.

Anything else that needs to be discussed?

[Thok]

The easiest explanation for why Akbar is alive is that I blocked the mafia from potentially killing him, and that BM submitted the wolves nightkill and stupidly thought that Akbar is scum (and consequently BM foolishly thought he could get Akbar lynched today).

Your desire to try to get claimed masons lynched is too much.

vote Battle Mage

I want to get that broom out of the game.

[Thok]

1. I think it was made pretty clear yesterday that Akbar probably wasnt scum.

If it was so clear, why did you start today by trying to lynch Akbar and claiming that theopor was town? It's clear that it was not clear to you that Akbar was town.

2. Claimed masons my arse. Unless i'm missing something major here, we dont know whether ESE are protown or not. They could easily be a cult or a third scumgroup from where i am standing. Or, Fonz and Greg might not be ESE atall, and are simply claiming it because they think all ESE members are dead.

Scum rarely fake claim mason. We also know that the flavor of the mafia is "People at Lucius Lovato's estate", not "ESE members". The flavor of the werewolves is "Werewolf", not "ESE member". We certainly don't have the nightkills to support a third scum group. If they were a cult, they likely would have won by now.

3. Why do you especially want an item out of the game? I dont know what the broom does, but your orb looks like it could be a 1-shot tracker/watcher. My broom might allow me to take up the podium in place of Kison, and deliver items to people.
Nonetheless, i am intrigued to hear why you particularly see a 'broom' as a threat, when you obviously don't consider your 'orb' to be dangerous.

I don't want items in the hands of scum. You having an item isn't an argument for you being scum, but it is an argument that among the scum, you should be a higher priority lynch than the others. If ThAdmiral didn't send you an item, I'd probably be pushing for a Fuldu lynch (actually, I probably be discussing what the size of the wolf group would be to assess whether lynching Fuldu would put him in lynch or lose, but I wasn't expecting Lowell to be nightkilled, which mostly solves that problem).

Another explanation is also required-an answer to the question-why arent you voting Fuldu if you think he is scum?

I think getting the item out of the game before it can help scum is a higher priority than lynching Fuldu. This is a situation where we need to lynch three people in three days, and I do care that we get the order of killing scum correct.

Oh and 1 more thing i'd like to say ooc: Cut the insults out. Your posts seem to be so laden with propaganda, its very hard to see them as genuine. I dont know why you seem so keen to convince people that my comments are 'stupid' and/or 'foolish', but its not particularly nice. It'd be particularly appreciated if you would stop insulting me based on things which AREN'T EVEN TRUE. Try using facts before smothering me in WIFOM plz.

My point is that your comments in thread match up with the fact that Akbar wasn't killed last night. You've outright admitted to not realizing that theopor was scum from his lynch scene (and hence thinking Akbar was scum), and it's reasonable to notice that the last two likely wolf kills reflect that fact. (Kison was daykilled rather than Akbar, and Lowell was nightkiledl rather than Akbar).

Using the words, "stupidly" and "foolishly" was probably redundant. But it's obviosu that you didn't realize that Akbar was town.

[Thok]

Also BM, I note that you completely ignore the idea of Tarhalindur/Raffles being a werewolf.

[Thok]

You seem very sure about the number of scum remaining. If you are right, this game is all but over for the town. So lets hope this is BS on your part. I'm also intrigued to ask-how sure are you that i am scum?
Your words suggest certainty, yet FTR, i'd like you to state it again.

If I'm right, the town has a nearly guaranteed win, just by lynching the people that aren't confirmed in the correct order.

I'd put the odds of you being scum around 90%, with the remaining 10% being Phoebus being a bastard mod or there only being two werewolves in the game rather than three. Like you've said, it's more that I'm fairly certain that me/Akbar/Fonz/The Greg/ThAdmiral are protown. Of the remaining three, it's clear from my roleblock that Fuldu (now celtic) is Lucius Lovato, and that leaves you and Raffless (now Tarhadilur) to be werewolves.

[Thok]

For somebody who complains about propaganda, your last post sure has a lot of it. Lynching you is not a "school boy error".

Could you tell us the full name of the broom?

[Thok]

BM, this kind of thing is exactly why some people don't like you. There's no need to go with the 'you might learn something' condescension towards a pretty decent mafia player in Thok.

BM's doing his usual "anybody who tries to wagon BM is wrong or scum" routine. I'm basically ignoring it.

Hmm. I was hoping the name of the broom would have given us more insight into what it actually does.

The Fonz: do you have any thoughts about my analysis of who's likely to be the remaining scum/wolves?

[Thok]

I'm pretty sure that a protown mass tracker/inventor masonry makes 15-3-3 unbalanced in favor of town all by itself. Adding a vig, a cop (possibly 2 depending on OTU), a 3 person masonry, a person who can make themselves unlynchable and possibly a doc and a roleblocker makes 15-3-3 a ridiculous idea.

The wolves also can apparently daykill some of the time. That's a huge advantage for the wolves; it allows them to potentially avoid the doc, the mass tracker, and the roleblocker. In the addition, the wolves don't seem to have a wolf cop, while N9V was a mafia cop. (Of course, we don't know what OTU does).

The only thing the mafia has that's close to that advantage is the fact that some of them aren't obviously revealed as scum on death. They need to have extra members to have any sort of balance with the werewolves, much less the town.

[Thok]

ThAdmiral, be sure to use your broom tonight; the mass-tracking is very likely more helpful than the any inventions you send out.

[Thok]

Well, that was unfortunate.

ThAdmiral, who did you see out last night?

[Thok]

"That" referring to BM actually being a miller, of course.

[Thok]

Setael, how much of the game have you read?

Also, do you have a last name?

[Thok]

Thok, saetel an akbar all out tonight.

So Setael, still want to claim that you are vanilla?

[Thok]

The Fonz, what does ESE stand for?

[Thok]

Kison didn't actually say that the two witches knew each other alignments. That said, Setael's basically doing a repeat of theopor's "I can't possibly scum" play from two days ago. She's also keeping her options extremely open in terms of who can be in what scum group (I would have expected pro-town Setael to go back and try to read to try to get a feel for that.)

To counter her arguements about not killing, 1. you may not have realized that you would be tracked even if you were roleblocked (that actually requires a bit of research to verify), 2. it's not as if you can afford to just completely give up on your night kill, 3. I only said I would try to block scum last night (and not necessarily celtic/you), and you might have hoped that I chose to block Tarhalidur.

Is there any reason why ThAdmiral would bother to lie?

I'm more worried about trying to figure out what's going on with the wolves at the moment. I'm trying to decide if the ESE was meant to be millerish. (If you don't understand why it's potentially millerish, good for you.)

[Thok]

You say I'm doing "I can't possibly be scum" - would you prefer that vanillas say "I could be scum, but I'm not." That doesn't really make sense. I'm not mafia and I'm not a werewolf, so my play is obviously going to be "I can't possibly be scum."

My point is that your only arguments that you aren't scum is that you are claiming that you aren't scum and that you would have to be stupid to nightkill. Neither of these is compelling to me at all.

1. you may not have realized that you would be tracked even if you were roleblocked (that actually requires a bit of research to verify)

ThAdmiral, be sure to use your broom tonight; the mass-tracking is very likely more helpful than the any inventions you send out.

If you call reading a very obvious statement that was written only a few posts before I replaced in doing quite a bit of research, then I guess I did.

You've missed my point. It's very common that a player who is roleblocked can't also be tracked (since their action was stopped from happening). Unless you read Kison posts or compared Kison's night choices and my night choices, you wouldn't have known that you would be tracked even if you were blocked.

2. it's not as if you can afford to just completely give up on your night kill

That is exactly what mafia is doing. They know they will be seen and so they are not making a night kill. It actually makes a lot of sense. It also is an excellent argument for why ThAdmiral is more likely a werewolf than mafia. If he was mafia, he would have no reason to not make night kills. However, if he is a werewolf and not seeing anyone at night because no one is making a night kill, why not frame someone?

Except that the last few nights were the only nights where it's possible to argue that any scum group gave up their night kill. Theopor tried to commit a nightkill even when he knew he would be watched, and the wolves took a similar risk two nights ago. (All other missed wolf kills clearly match up with day kills.)

3. I only said I would try to block scum last night (and not necessarily celtic/you), and you might have hoped that I chose to block Tarhalidur.

You were convinced that the reason there had been no NK was because you had blocked me. There could be no doubt reading over the last few pages that you would block me again last night.

I was convinced that the reason for a lack of mafia nightkill was because I blocked you. It's possible I could have tried to block the wolves' nightkill.

[Thok]

Hmm. I couldn't find that when I went looking for it. In any case, I've seen most of what I'm looking for today, so

vote Setael

.

[Thok]

@Tarhalindur-if the ESE were scum, they probably would have quicklynched Setael, daykilled me and won by now. If you were actually protown, you would be screaming that we have to keep Setael alive so we don't lose. (I actually was holding my vote back on Setael to watch for that possibility.)

Also, if you honestly felt the ESE were werewolves, you'd be pushing for their lynch, not asking permission to hammer Setael, as lynching Setael could cause us to lose in that scenario.

@Setael-if there were no werewolves left, who ate Lowell?

Also, my other argument for going after BM yesterday was that there were 3 unconfirmed players alive. Nothing really has changed with that, except we now have two unconfirmed players left.

It's fun to try to watch you argue your way out of this lynch, but you don't really have a leg to stand on.

[Thok]

It's quite scummy to keep your vote on me and leave me vulnerable to a Tarhalindur hammer, when you have just shown him to be obvscum.

If Tarhalindur had a partner, he would already have hammered you, daykilled me and won. Also, from my point of view, nobody makes sense as a potential Tarhalindur's wolf-partner. If Tarhalidur is a lone wolf, the scum have to be you and Tarhalindur, and frankly I don't really care which order I lynch the two of you.

Feel free to keep squirming.

[Thok]

I blocked Tarhalindur last night, but I suspect that's not what actually stopped the nightkill. (Pending what ThAdmiral says; I think today's a wolf daykill day, although I could be wrong about that. Pretty sure my current theory about daykills is correct.)

Apparently the awesome orb of awareness gave me a double vote yesterday. (I used it Night 6.) It should be clear from my end of the day discussion that I wasn't expecting a double vote to actually occur. Also, I can't use the orb any more.

FOS Tarhalindur

, as continuation from yesterday. This is likely turning into a vote Tarhalindur soon.

[Thok]

Your balance arguments ignore the existance of wolf daykills. Those by themselves do a decent job in boosting the power of the wolf group. Those by themselves allow for the wolves to deal with the doc/mason tracker problems.

If Akbar and I were the wolves, why would we take the risk of killing Night 5, when we would likely be watched?

(Note there's only two people alive the above argument doesn't apply too: ThAdmiral, who wouldn't be afraid of being watched, and Tarhalidur, who may not have known all the roles as a replcement.)

Why would we have left ThAdmiral alive for so long? Why would we have killed Lowell, rather than any of The Fonz/Fritzler/ThAdmiral?

[Thok]

This leaves Thok as scum by PoE. As support to this, note that his claimed ability is fairly standard on scum, and also note the ease with which he seems to be picking up on scum mechanics in this game (I'm reminded of Space Monkeys Mafia, where Glork-scum confirmed the core mechanic of the game shortly after PJ speculated about it).

Oh, a Thok knows too much argument. There's a special level of hell reserved for people who use this. Would you like me to show the various pieces of logic I've used to deduce the scum mechanics? Or to show you situations where I've made even more mysterious leaps of deduction as town. (Make me discuss Calvin and Hobbes. I dare you.)

Incidentally, I'd like you to explain why you were "asking permission" to lynch Setael yesterday while at the same time claiming to be worried about the existence of a clearly more dangerous threat. Why wasn't the more dangerous threat your concern yesterday?

[Thok]

I really can't see a good option for who are remaining wolves other than loneTarhalindurWolf. The only options that even come close to working for me are that the ESE's are actually wolves, and I don't see it. (There are things about Akbar's claim that makes me believe he isn't lying about it; specifically the fact that he's a village healer and not a town healer.)

I sort of like The Fonz's "Wolves have day jobs" argument, but in that case I find it more likely that mneme was a baker/wolf than Akbar being wolf. (mneme's role fits best with a day job/wolf theme: I find it hard to believe that a retired cop or a silversmith is a wolf, for example, and most of the other dead people have claimed power roles.)

That said, if Tarhalindur is lynched and the game isn't over and I'm not day-killed, I'll probably be blocking Akbar, as no other roleblock makes sense in that scenario.

This game being unbalanced doesn't actually bug me that much. The other Phoebus game running concurrent with this game (Wolves in New York) was also unbalanced for the town, and I think there's a lot of millerish stuff that could lead to mislynches we've mostly avoided getting caught up with.

I still think Tarhalindur is the only player alive who was likely to kill Lowell Night 5.

vote Tarhalindur

(You may want to wait for a vote count before voting, just so tht you can verify that I don't have a double vote today.)

[Thok]

Poke. Does somebody who's not me or a claimed mason want to post?

(Tarhalindur, in particular, has made over 50 posts in various games other than this one since his last post here. Akbar and ThAdmiral haven't posted in this game for a while, but they haven't posted in any games in MS for a while.)

[Thok]

ThAdmiral, what happened last night?

[Thok]

Thok's claimed power is a more common scum one, but we have the issue of Reyo's breadcrumbing and N9V to deal with. (Though, Thok, would you be so kind as to inform us of your thought process in blocking a claimed cop?)

Akbar, though, seems entirely plausible as scum to this point.

XReyo was the person who blocked the claimed cop. I can't explain his reasoning, although I'll note that it happened after N9V claimed IH was scum, got IH lynched, and IH came up something that didn't appear to me (and still doesn't appear to be) a scum role.

I'm holding back my thoughts on who is scum or not until I hear about night actions.

[Thok]

Also, I'd prefer if people didn't vote until people reveal their nightchoices and I get to have my say.

[Thok]

Actually, I've changed my mind a bit. Here's a few thoughts.

1. There's a fairly compelling reason why I can't be part of a two person scum team (it's not 100% foolproof, but it's there. This reason also applies to me in particular.)

2. If people are going to be suggesting that Akbar is scum, I'd actually like to hear reasons for it. I will not accept "Akbar plays by gut/doesn't seem to use logic" as a reason, as I feel that's an Akbar playstyle-tell and not a sign of whether or not he is scummy. I also don't feel "Akbar was suspicious of the ESE" is a good reason either, as I feel that there was decent reason for the non-masons to be suspicious of the ESE.

3. I've been neglegent with this, but I'd like to hear first names from the ESE members and ThAdmiral.

[Thok]

Edit by way of Quadruple Post "This reason also

only

applies to me in particular".

[Thok]

Flay told me aside from Thok's block, I saw a witch fly overhead and land near the houses of ThAdmiral, Fritzler & Fonz.

I can confirm this is what I saw last night/did last night. (My reason for blocking Akbar was to be consistent with what I said yesterday, although I did consider all of the other block possibilities.)

The Fonz/Fritzler have claimed mod confirmed innocence, so either both of them are scum or neither is scum. The masons aren't totally cleared (they may have chosen to get a daykill today to get around the outside chance of me roleblocking them last night). On the flip side, I'm not sure we can beat the masons if they are scum and have a daykill today, and they likely would have daykilled me yesterday for the win if they could have.

The fact that a scum group with me can't be roleblocked rules out the possibility of me being in a two person scum; such a group would have killed last night and the game would be over.

We should seriously consider the idea of ThAdmiral being lone wolf. That has the best answer to "Why would the wolves try to kill Lowell" of any of the reasonable scum scenarios, and also has the best answer to "How the heck is a mass tracking mason pair balanced?".

[Thok]

I don't really buy the ESE=Cult theory, as a quick look shows that the person pushing that the hardest was Mr Flay, who was mafia (and who basically had to know that the al4xz kill was a mafia kill, so his theory was mostly to spread confusion).

Mod

, I'd like a prod on ThAdmiral.

[Thok]

To be fair-I should say that I could see the idea of ESE=Wolves with some combo ability to kill some nights and recruit other nights. But I don't see the possibility of them being a third scum group.

[Thok]

The Fonz: Please stop attacking Akbar based on the fact that he didn't know your role PM day 2 or 3. Would you consider it fair if I attacked people for thinking the roleblocker was likely scum Day 4?

Akbar being scum has serious problems with it.

1. Why didn't he kill PBug ever, despite knowing about him since day 2?
2. Why did he kill Lowell, who was in the pool of "likely unconfirmed", and who's role power was mostly irrelevent to a scum who could daykill, when such a death could lead to him being tracked?

[Thok]

Thok, do you not find it strange at all that a

claimed doctor

has lived this long?

There have only been three scum kills since Akbar claimed (N9V, Kison, Lowell), mainly because of tracker/roleblocking issues. Two of those kills have been on coppish.

Also, the question can easily be flipped: why haven't the claimed ESE masons or the claimed roleblocker been killed yet?

I agree that the case for me being scum has problems also (essentially the "Why Lowell?" problem pops up again plus there's the whole my powers/flavor are sort of confirmed by others thing.) The case on ThAdmiral has less issues, IMHO.

Are you attacking Akbar because you think he's scum, or because you think he'd be easier to lynch then ThAdmiral?

[Thok]

Evidently not, since you seem to strongly prefer the ThAdmiral lynch. Besides, only scum push the easy lynch over the right lynch, so that's a loaded question.

I have far more reason to believe ThAdmiral town.

Well, yeah, it was meant to be a loaded question. I'm a bit skeptical of everybody, given that the last few days have been mostly follow the Thok.

I'd like to hear your reasons for thinking ThAdmiral is protown.

Also, have you tried looking over MOS's posts at all?

[Thok]

Fair enough about the follow the Thok thing. I still feel I've been the most vocal player the last few days.

I don't really see why Witch and Wolf are incompatible, as they both are from the same sort of mythology. Also we know from Kison that PBug wasn't on the broom until Kison was killed, which means PBug could have been doing other stuff while Kison was mass tracking.

MOS had some interaction with PBug (now ThAdmiral) which I find intersting, his only interaction with the masonry was to support an attack on al4xz (I'd expect more of an attack on masons from him if he was scum with the masons) and mostly ignored Akbar. (I haven't mentioned XReyoX-MOS interaction since I haven't bothered to look for it, as I know my alignment.) I don't think it's correct to ignore him.

[Thok]

Oh, before I forget:

Thok, on Night 5 you claim to have received an item, which presumably could only have come from ThAdmiral. Someone was eaten that night. Since I find it hard to believe the mafia are cannibals, that means a wolf kill was performed by someone else that night, unless ThAdmiral gets to kill and use his witch abilities on the same night, which seems hugely unbalanced.

We're talking about a two person scum group. Very little is "highly unbalanced".

ThAdmiral didn't use his broom the one night it would have been the most helpful; doesn't that concern you at all?

[Thok]

Which night are we talking about?

The only night we've had a wolf kill (Lowell) since MOS died is also a night when ThAdmiral gave out items rather than use his broom.

And I thought one nightaction per person per night was, like, a cardinal rule of mafia.

Um, no. It depends on the mod (I've run a game where all players had three night actions per player, but I wouldn't consider that evidence about this game.) That said, I've just looked over a bunch of Phoebus's large theme games [Norse Myth, Roahl Dahl, Seville Symposium, and Asterix], and he does tend to limit players to one night action per player. He also tends to have multiple mason groups. So this is a point in favor of your arguments.

I'm also far from sure we

are

talking about a two-person scumgroup.

If there is a 3 person wolf group (more would mean the wolves should have won today), then it has 2 people living (or something crazy about some of the dead people being not revealled as wolves). We've also mostly agreed that the only viable 2 person scum groups are the masons or Akbar/ThAdmiral, and in either case arguing over lynching Akbar versus ThAdmiral is silly.

What do you think about Lowell not knowing about the Cat in a Wicker basket? Or is that mostly irrelevant?

[Thok]

Don't see the relevance here. I see no reason to think that night was a particularly bad one to choose to use items rather than broom. Indeed, I'd see that as evidence for the defence- it would have been possible for ThAdmiral to kill and claim to have used the broom, since a claimed action of 'flew, saw Akbar and Thok' would have left us none the wiser as to which of the three was the killer- whilst him giving out the item is confirmable by you.

It's possible that he gave out items to people to try to make himself look townish.

Does he have a history of using scum masons?

Not as far as I can tell. Again, this is a point in the ESE/ThAdmiral's favor.

Dayjob theory. Also, I fail to see how the masons are a viable scumgroup- Al4x, killed at night, came up ESE member... hence there must be other ESE members, whilst MoS came up lyncanthrope. If ESE= wolf, why did MoS come up lycanthrope?

I've been pondering some sort of lunar cycle theory for the wolves, where different phases of the moon allow to werewolves to do different things/show up as different things at different times.

The problem is in that scenario, there should have been a daykill yesterday (to match the cycle).

What do you think about Lowell not knowing about the Cat in a Wicker basket? Or is that mostly irrelevant?

Irrelevant, since the gift-giving has been confirmed by you and Akbar, and I don't think you two can be buddies.[/quote]

It's possible that Kison sent out a gift night 1 and PBug claimed he sent out a gift and did other things instead. That's why I'm asking.

[Thok]

ThAdmiral, who's the play?

[Thok]

While we're waiting for ThAdmiral.

Akbar-who's the play?

Fritz can answer this question also. (The Fonz has already said who he thinks the play is.)

[Thok]

Posting some thoughts

1. If Akbar is a werewolf, he's essentially proven to be a werewolf power role, but probably not a werewolf doctor. There isn't really a way to teling what Akbar's role power is.

2. Looking at what I believe to be the werewolf kill types to given them some organization

Day kills-N1 (D2 Mr. Flay), N4 (D5 Kison)
Eaten-N3 (Shanba), N5 (Lowell)
Nothing?-N2, N6, N7, N8

This makes me wonder if the day kills take a certain amount of preparation.

[Thok]

Can we get mass proddage?

[Thok]

MOS (the one known lycanthrope) was dead by night 3, so he can't have done either of the N4 or N5 kills.

[Thok]

The only other thing I'm thinking right now is of a game I played recently where mos, me and a few others were around in the end-game. MoS looked every bit the pro-town player and was directing most of the play and it turned out that he was the last scum. I thought afterwards that I should have realized it was a bit weird that he was never killed by the scum, given what a good reputation he had.
This leads me to suspect that thok may be the last werewolf.
I need to think about this more though.

I assume you're thinking about Jack of all Trades. Of course, this is a different game.

I replaced in day 4. Before that my role was played by XReyoX, who didn't have a good reputation and who was attacked by many people. By Night 4, the mass tracker had been outed and scum knew they couldn't kill without being tracked. In addition, there were a lot of power roles that various scum groups had to worry about (this specifically covers night 4, as I hadn't been outed yet as a roleblocker that night, but PBug, N9V, and Akbar had all claimed, and all of them would be high profile targets.)

If you feel I'm suspicious for not having been killed night 5 onward, feh. But we've only had one kill since night 5, and assuming that Setael was the last mafia, the mafia haven't had chance to kill since then (since I was blocking Setael night 5 and night 6).

[Thok]

Also, Akbar hasn't post anywhere on MS in 9 days. Does he need to be replaced?

[Thok]

Got bored, so I sat down and read over Lowell to see if he said anything useful. The only thing I could see is that he voted The Fonz based on a hunch.

[Thok]

Basically, as far as I'm concerned, Thok is basically confirmed by Reyo's breadcrumbs, and N9V (who died at night) claiming to have been RBed because 'a drunk guy stumbled into him.' You have also been seen out on your broom, and are therefore definitely a witch. We have no such knowledge about Kakeng.

Feh. At this point I'm tempted to agree with you (although the whole Akbar is scum because everybody else has a confirmedish role argument annoys my sense of game design). I'm trying to decide if it's worthwhile to make a safety play of leaving Akbar/Kakeng for tomorrow, on the theory that if he's scum then my roleblocking will keep him from doing stuff and that allows us to test another scum group theory if necessary. However, I'm not convinced that town has enough trust in me to try such play, and there's the whole daykill thing which would cause problems also.

Fonz, is there any reason you aren't voting?

Kakeng, have anything useful to say?

[Thok]

Vote: Kakeng

Deeply annoyed at the lack of contribution of the only two people i think could be scum.

Who is the second person you are annoyed with?

[Thok]

ThAdmiral. I can see a very outside possibility of him being scum, whilst I can't see THokscum at all, and Fritzler is mod-confirmed innocent to me.

Feh. I can't really see getting more info out of ThAdmiral, no matter what his alignment. In my experience, ThAdmiral is usually busy with work and doesn't post much. (See Jack of All Trades for an example, or really any of ThAdmiral's games.) I'm actually happier with him having seeing what he has posted today.

[Thok]

Money-mouth time then, Thok?

Or is there something specific about which you'd like to hear from Kakeng?

I've got the a more difficult decision to make then you. I'd like to hear what Kakeng has to say, and I'm not going to rush stuff.

Mod

can Kakeng be prodded?

[Thok]

Mod

, has Kakeng picked up his prod?

Does his presence or lack of presence affect the deadline at all?

[Thok]

I'm giving Kakeng until noon Tuesday morning PST to post (about 25 hours from now). If he doesn't post by that time I will be voting for him. I'm only giving him that long because of the holiday in the US.

[Thok]

Hi. I'm back from vacation.If i'm not replaced, i'll join.

Is there a reason you didn't mention your vacation when you initially posted in the thread?

You are currently on pace to be lynched (possibly at the deadline), simply by process of elimination.

[Thok]

Sigh.

Mod

can we get another prod or replacement of Kakeng? Or if he's the last scum, could you just modkill him and let town win?

[Thok]

The lack of participation annoys me. But I'd rathr lynch than no-lynch given what I've seen today.

vote Kakeng

[Thok]

Looks at first post

OverTheUnder was a wolf? I did not expect that.

[Thok]

What happened with N9V's investigation of IH?

I agree that the town was incredibly powerful (mason tracker is insanely powerful already, and mason mass tracker is just ridiculous).