Akbar wrote:Nice work Thok. I was suspicious of Fuldu(Celtic18) & BM to begin with. Especially after BM tried to save Theopor. But, the roleblock is pretty convincing. Without Kison, they knew I'd be covering Pbug(ThAdmiral). So they had to come after me. I'd be willing to vote either one of them. What makes you think Fuldu is the last mafia?
Since Fuldu was the person I blocked, he's mafia unless somebody decided to kill ThAdmiral last night.
A long discussion of what I thought about last night (including some stuff I got from rereading various people).
All of me/Akbar/ThAdmiral/Fonz/The Greg are basically guaranteed protown. (With me/Akbar having a slightly weaker case than TheAdmiral/Fonz/The Greg at this point).
Since I believe Lucius Lovato is a role in this game, we have at least one mafia left. We've already seen 3 certain mafia (Flay, bird, theopor), and whatever was up with IH. I doubt we have 5+whatever IH was mafia.
At this point we had only seen 1 wolf. We likely have at least 2 more of those left.
Given that 1. wolves seem to have some ability to daykill, 2. there's likely more wolves than mafia left, I tried to figure out who was mafia, as that blocking the hypothetical last mafia would be more likely to actually stop a kill.
There were solid reasons for Raffles/BM to not be mafia.
Raffles made comments about there likely being 4 or 6 scum in the game (back when he was on the Over The Under wagon: it was part of his explanation for putting OTU at lynch -6). That suggests he is part of a 3 person scum group (4=3 scum+1 SK, 6=3 scum +3 scum and he shouldn't know the size of any scum groups at that point) and that group has to be the werewolves, since the mafia appears to have more than 3 people in it. He also had an a not mafia investigation on him. Also, theopor's desire to force a Raffles role claim yesterday suggest Raffles is not mafia. Also, mafia would have used Raffles to commit the kill last night if he was mafia; people were already suspicious of him, so there wasn't much risk in letting Kison see him kill people.
BM-theopor yesterday suggested BM is not mafia. There was no reason for the two of them to try to build a connection between each other if they are on the same team. BM also was never really fond of a Raffles wagon, which suggests he is a wolf.
That left Fuldu/Lowell to choose from. I suspected that the black cat was a possible cause of the day kills (which is a not mafia argument); also Lowell had a better name claim than Fuldu. I also got a strong "not werewolf" feel from Fuldu's posts (particularly his attacks on Raffles).
I replaced into Chess Mafia for 6 months, and all I got was a win and this lousy sig.