If we have 7 neighborhoods, then it's something like 4 neighborhoods with 4, and 3 with 3. I'm also curious how many mafia there are. I'm guessing 6, but it could be 5 or 7, as who knows how roles affect the setup/balance. I'm thinking if we assume there's 6 mafia, then at least 1 of the neighborhoods is all town. I'm guessing the likelihood that any neighborhood has more than 1 mafia is low, though it's possible there's a neighborhood with 2 mafia. I doubt there's more than 1. I know some folks will resist this kind of analysis, but I'm talking about common sense here. I think knowing that there's probably at least 2 all town neighborhoods is important to know (and it's not something I really considered realistic before I started thinking about it more).
Of course, this is speculative, so I'm not saying we should ground lynches in that knowledge absent independent evidence, but I think it's helpful when thinking about process of elimination. As a matter of probability, when 1 scum has been lynched from a neighborhood, the probability that other players in the neighborhood are scum goes way down. So for example, Pere was lynched, so the probability that farside, Ankamius, or myself are scum goes way down. That's another point to take into account in the analysis. In that limited sense, I think mastin's right that AP counts as town, for purposes of this analysis. I think third-party probably would be placed in a neighborhood with mafia in it, so I'm guessing in AP's neighborhood there's 1 mafia (but definitely not 2, so if we find scum in that neighborhood, we can be 99% certain the others in there are town).
This is why I've been asking about neighborhoods btw -- I think it's much more useful information than I gave it credit for earlier.
Solar, Metal, Imperium, and Bitmap are town. I'm not budging on those reads unless something catastrophic happens, or we all end up at LYLO together, but that's not happening, so... they're town.
Farside and Ankamius (the rest of my neighborhood) are also very likely town. I think Pere's flip significantly lowers the probability that farside or Ankamius are scum. Farside's also been one of my stronger townreads all game, and her power if mafia would guarantee a mislynch, which is insanely powerful. So she's almost Solar-level town. Ankamius has become a stronger townread, too. I'm not 100% on that but I skimmed some of his games on D1 when I was voting him (don't ask me which cause I forgot), and I think his play here is much more consistent with his town meta than scum.
Vezok's also a strong townread (not as strong as the above but close). I had a townread on House earlier which has translated into a townread on Magua but I'm not as confident on that as I was earlier. Mask is also a townread. I'd say Magua and Mask are about equally strong reads -- weaker than Vezok -- but still very much town.
Ooba's giving me the hardest time right now. I had him up there with Solar as one of my strongest townreads, but I'm worried he's just Ceph-level good at scum. I thought the way he updated his reads at the start of D2 felt very town, and his reads look like town nitpicking rather than scum. But I hate the way he's started going after me again. I first thought that was town just picking up his read from D1, which is often the case, but it also doesn't square with his update post in D2. He said in 3276 that neither TD or myself would get his vote, while beast probably wouldn't get his vote. But then, as D2 drags on, Ooba starts saying beast might be scum (e.g. see 4192). He doesn't really comment on me. Then, farside asks for 3 players who are scum, and Ooba says "ace, beast, and bitmap" (see 4250). Then, in
4290
, he changes his mind and agrees with farside's "beast, TD, and FT" list. How'd he go from having me and TD as "not lynching" to "scum"? Unclear. What's worse, he had been putting some pressure on beast through D2, so you'd think when farside limited options to those three, he would have jumped on beast. Nope. He immediately votes for me, who he hasn't said anything about the entirety of D2 except to note that I'm town and that I should post more. To me, his sudden decision to vote me again doesn't square with (1) his developing scumread on beast throughout D2, and (2) his supposed reread of the game at the start of D2, where he decides that I'm town. So I dunno. I'm not saying Ooba's scum based on all this -- he was a very strong townread and I still like lots of his analysis -- but I'm not confident anymore on that. If I have time (probably won't), I'll try to look through some of his games, because right now I think the main issue with Ooba is "how good is he as scum." Mastin, ZZZX, and Xombie claim they're 100% town and they can prove it. I find that hard to believe but I'm willing to wait. We've already had a few roles prove themselves very likely town -- Metal, farside, and Vezok -- so I suppose 3 more players could prove themselves town via role. I'm hoping they do, as that'll save lots of trouble. On D2 play alone, I think Mastin's become more town over time, while Xombie/ZZZX have become less town. But we'll see how it pans out.
That leaves TD, Skybird, Ace, Beast, TWIE, Ceph, Rach, TSO, Heartless. I'll leave TD and Beast last.
Metal and Magua are town, so that significantly increases probability that Skybird or TWIE is scum (assuming at least 1 mafia in this neighborhood, as is likely the case). So Skybird or TWIE are both at 50% scum via neighborhood process of elimination. As a matter of play, I haven't read either closely enough, though I remember thinking Skybird was scum back when I was talking with Mastin. TWIE feels somewhat townish, too. So Skybird's very likely scum.
The Mask/AP/Ace neighborhood is a slam dunk for us, because AP flipped already, and Mask is very likely town. Which leaves Ace as almost certain to flip scum, via poe -- so Ace goes is in my scum pile.
Which just leaves the Ceph/Ooba/Heartless/Rach neighborhood, which is tough, because any one of them could be scum, based on the analysis. At least one of these players is mafia, and if there's any neighborhood where there's 2, this is probably it.
Beast. He's in the TSO/Vezok neighborhood. Vezok's town, so that increases likelihood that TSO/Beast is scum. There's also something that happened in that neighborhood which tells me at least one of them is scum. I need more info from the folks in the neighborhood, but for some reason, the folks in that neighborhood trusted each other too much. Beast immediately came out saying TSO was town. That's fucking weird. I find that kind of immediate trust bullshit in a neighborhood and more likely to come from scum than town. At least that's been my experience (see Ceph's play in Mafia on the air, for example). Scum tend to be more trusting (i.e. revealing information to their neighborhood) than town, because they're just trying to manipulate townies, whereas townies get paranoid and don't want to be the first to make a move, generally-speaking. So I feel very good voting Beast. I think his play doesn't have anything town about it, his role doesn't confirm him as town (town as I interpret things has tons of strong roles already so I dunno why folks think scum won't have any), and process of elimination suggests either him or TSO is scum.
TD's tougher to read. I keep going back-and-forth on him. I had a huge scumread on him on D1, but then I jumped to the conclusion he was town from his vote on Mastin following his roleblock claim. But the more I think about that, the less I think that's the slam dunk town-tell I thought it was. I'm gonna reread him before making any final decisions, but for right now, I think he's less scummy than Beast.
All that is to say, I think Beast is a very good lynch -- and TD is an okay lynch but there are much better ones (Skybird/Ace, for example).
