Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[The Fonz]

Wow. That was quite a start to the day. I guess lynching DGB under LynchAllLiars for claiming that Battle Mage is not annoying can wait.

2) Even if you reveal an innocent investigation, it will help us. The wolves won't kill the innocent person, because they don't want to confirm IH's guilt (or vice versa, depending on your sanity). Other scum *might* target the innocent person, but that just means that we're trading one innocent for a guaranteed guilty. Since we don't know your sanity, we might even get lucky by having scum kill the guilty person, so we don't even have to waste a lynch.

I am probably being stupid, but after today, if we do lynch IH, what is to stop the scum from KN'ng the innocent? Once IH is lynched and confirned scum, there should be little concern for N9V's sanity. At which point there will be no reason for the scum to hold off killing the innocent.

That's under the assumption, though, that N9V is sane and IH is scum. If we lynch IH and he turn up non-wolf, and then N9V gets killed, we'll have no idea who the person he found innocent was,

who must be scum since N9V was insane to find IH guilty.

Also, keep in mind that N9V's "innocent" is by no means guaranteed pro-town, even if he is sane. They're merely non-wolf, but could easily be a mafioso, SK, cult memeber, etc.

You're discounting the possibility of paranoia. I'm not sure concealing the non-wolf does any good, though- after all, the wolves know who is a wolf or not.

[The Fonz]

@Fonz: I don't think n9v would be a paranoia cop. paranoia cops get guilty results no matter what. He is either normal or insane.

That's right, I'd forgotten he got an innocent. (Yes, I know- in the same post I was talking about whether he oughta reveal his not-wolf result. So sue me).

Or of course, a complete lie to send us on a wild goose chase for the day. There are too many possibilities and I don't feel like accepting that claim on the face value.

Pah, he's got a guilty. Whether you feel like accepting it at face value or not, it's testable.

[The Fonz]

@BM: According to your theory suggesting n9v is scum, what do you think he is trying to achieve? trading 1 town lynch with his life? not quite profitable for his scum group at this time of the day I believe.

if that happens, he could easily claim insanity. otherwise, its quite possible that hes throwing his buddy IH under the bus, in order to confirm himself. Then he can go on to claim each of his other buddies are innocent.

BM

He'd have to be really stupid scum to claim right now. If scum are really stupid, they tend to give themselves away sooner or later anyway. Hence, I see no reason not to test his result.

Vote: IH

Also, why is everyone assuming N9V gets nightkilled? Last time i checked, we didn't have a dead doc yet.

[The Fonz]

Ok, what the hell? From what I can tell, IH was town. Now, ~N9V~ is either scum and lying, or an insane cop of some sort.

I was thinking about this overnight, I think the Mayor might have been an unrecruited traitor who came up scum. I'm a little surprised Raffles wasn't vigged to give us more info on N9V to be honest.

We also know that Shanba killed Mastermind of Sin. So he wasn't lying about being the Vigilante.

Killed DGB, you mean.

We know that someone also killed Mastermind of Sin. Since our Vigilante is dead, I'm going to guess that it was the ESE?

I think the much simpler explanation would be that MoS was the mafia kill. Shooting seems a pretty standard mafia kill method to me.

[The Fonz]

Have we yet to

confirm

that ESE is NOT the Mafia?

I don't quite get what you're saying here. Taking your words at face value, no, we have not yet confirmed ESE =/= mafia, because we have had no-one die and come up as simply 'mafia.'

[The Fonz]

@n9v: Have you got an explanation to why IH appears to be town. Could you also tell us that wether you've got an innocent/guilty result last night (and if possible, who you've investigated)?

Why on Earth would N9V have that information? Mods don't tend to tell cops 'oh, you just investigated a miller' or whatever. If he's a cop, he just knows who he investigated and what he got told their alignment was.

The important thing you're forgetting is, if he's not the real mafia-finding cop, THERE'S ALMOST CERTAINLY ANOTHER ONE OUT THERE. So unless and until he gets counterclaimed, we shouldn't lynch him.

[The Fonz]

Bah. Unless it's endgame, or the claimed cop's come out with investigations that are incompatible with

any

sanity, I don't see how you'd figure out that a cop claim is a lie with enough certainty to lynch without a counterclaim. If there's someone capable of counterclaiming, they'll come out eventually or be NKed, and there's no harm in leaving N9V alive until that point.

Given the flavour surrounding IH's death, I think it's pretty likely he was a role that came up guilty to cop investigations, whether miller or traitor, so your pushing of a lynch of a guy with an innocent on him as a 'test' seems deeply suspect to me, an attempt to get an easy mislynch. I'd suggest leaving N9V alive, but not lynching solely on the basis of his results, for a few days yet.

[The Fonz]

If IH was a Miller role, wouldn't that show up on his role tag? I think N9V is lying. As much as I don't trust BM & Fuldu, I think their appraisal of the situation is accurate.

It didn't show up on Al's tag whether he was cult, mafia or mason. Why would it come up on IH's? We seem to have a limited-reveal game. Deal with it.

Massive FOS: anyone pushing an N9V lynch today

[The Fonz]

The only chance that N9V is innocent is if he's an insane cop.

Or if IH is a Godfather who's role name was a bit misleading.

Or a miller, or a traitor...

Also of note, neither scum group tried to kill N9V. The fact that N9V is not voting Raffles instead of BM is suspect as well, considering the only chance N9V's innocent is being Insane Cop. This of course would mean Raffles is scum.

We know that MoS, a werewolf, did kill last night. We

don't

know who killed MoS. That means that the Mafia(the ONLY group who would want to eliminate a legit cop VS Mafia), could have attempted to kill ~N9V~ last night and been blocked by a doctor.

The fact that it was by shooting, makes me think MoS was the mafia kill. So I'm guessing they just left N9V alive in the hope people would turn on him today.

I think that Raffles is a valid play because it will kill two birds with one stone. Raffles was a prime suspect two days ago, we don't risk losing a claimed cop, and it will help determine N9V's claim.

I won't vote, however, until N9V answers my question.

Raffles may have been a 'prime suspect' but I actually think that wagon was poorly-reasoned and full of scum. By saying 'the only way he's innocent is if he's insane cop' is such a clearly beneficial strat if you're scum. You get to lynch one person not part of your scum group as a 'test', and if he comes up innocent, then you get to lynch the cop. Not buying it.

[The Fonz]

AGHHHHHH! Was just writing huge PbP of Raffles, lousy computer crashed 3/4 waythru. Will see if I have time to do a redux version before i turn in for the night.

[The Fonz]

Redux:

There appear to be a few points against Raffles:

1. THe claimed scumtrap, and his reaction to it. I find this:

I just said, you can think what you want, but this is what I did, end of story.

A particularly town defence- don't OMGUS, don't deflect, don't change your story, just say, this is it, this is the truth and nothing more. Kison claiming argument from repetition is obvious misrep- he claimed there were no more arguments to be made, let you make up your own mind. Those continuing to push the subject were clearly not helping the town.

2. The unvote as we neared deadline- whilst I think I myself disagree with some of his premises (stalled wagon = town) I can get on baord with his claimed thought process there.

3. His speculation about scum numbers- I don't see anything wrong at all here. His 'two groups of three' theory was fine, probably right, and in no way suggest scum, important to remember that scum wouldn't know how many in the other group. In particular, I see no good case that he had any more information about the nature of ESE than anyone else.

DGB coming up town when everyone was trying to jump to a 'Raffles and DGB' conclusion doesn't hurt his cause either. DGB gave me a very 'townie, convinced she is right, and willing to go out on a limb to derail a scummy bandwagon' vibe that day.

Also, given the size of his wagon, and the fact that the one person willing to defend him has come up town, I find it hard to think of a plausible set of scumbuddies for him.

Based on my latest re-read, it jumps out at me how much Kison was misrepresenting Raffles, making WIFOM arguments, and so on. Combined with his play today, i think that merits a

vote: Kison

.

Also, Fuldu, regarding SV, I'm sure I'm not the first replacement to find himself disagreeing with one or more actions of his predecessor.

[The Fonz]

@Kison: How does n9v trying to investigate you make him not a scum?

What is it with you and the rampant rolefishing?

[The Fonz]

N9V, when it said 'Shanba Kison and DGB's house' was it near the house of each of them, or a communal house belonging to all three?

[The Fonz]

Right. The distinction's important, it's potentially relevant flavour.

[The Fonz]

Because it's unlikley he's lying, and he's the cop.

[The Fonz]

EBWODP:

CLAIMED

cop.

[The Fonz]

Right. The distinction's important, it's potentially relevant flavour.

I don't get this. Why is it not a communal house a relavent point for analysis?

If they lived together, it would be worth knowing.

[The Fonz]

Right now, my vote idleing between BM and Kison. I don't like how the strange occurences took place last night. But BM wanting to lynch a claimed cop, thats just unremarkably scummy.

Unvote

for now, until I can figure out who deserves my vote more.

im obviously missing something here.
this is what i got:

N9V claims cop.
claims guilty investigation on IH.
IH dies and comes up town.

Now, i must be missing something pretty major here, so please spell it out to me. As far as i can see, N9V's claim has been well and truly disproven, barring a miriad of infinitely unlikely circumstances.

The circumstances are a million miles from 'infinitely unlikely.' IH's death scene was kinda mysterious on the subject of his alignment- good reason to suspect, etc, but no firm proof- it didn't say out-and-out that IH was town.

[The Fonz]

Nope, but considering you're the one accusing N9V of lying, and he's a claimed cop, the burden of proof is on you, not him. There is enough there to think he might well still be telling the truth.

[The Fonz]

im finding it awfully hard to believe N9V. typically, a cop who has been

confirmed to have lied

under such circumstances, would at least recieve some pressure. the fact that nobody has bothered concerns me a little, but the lack of wagon means my suspicions are pretty useless.

THat's it.

Unvote, vote Battle Mage

He has not been confirmed a liar. Repeating it doesn't make it true.

[The Fonz]

Hence, we leave N9V alive for a few more days, but don't necessarily lynch on his recommendation. We basically ignore him for a while. We don't have to commit to leaving him alive to anywhere near endgame.

[The Fonz]

No! It's not! It would be lying if we could prove that IH appeared innocent to investigations, AND N9V is definitely not insane. As we cannot prove either of those things, we cannot say for sure that N9V is lying.

[The Fonz]

This is what we've already known about the lynches from the first 3 days.

D1- OTU (11)

DGB, -Town
Flay, -Town
remussaidow, -Town
Scarecrow, - Town
BM,
Fuldu,
PBuG,
theopor,
IH - Town?
al4x, - Scum
MoS -Wolf

----------------------------------
D2 -
BM (4) - Akbar, DGB (Town), IH (Town?), theopor
DGB (Town)(4) - BM, mneme(scarecrow - Town), MoS (Wolf), Shanba (Town)
Raffles (4) - Fuldu, Flay (Town), PBuG, SV (now Fonz)

---------------------------------
D3 - IH (9)
N9V,
Akbar,
BM,
DGB, -Town
Kison,
Lowell,
MoS, -Wolf
theopor,
Fonz (SV)

----------------------------------

I'm not going to put too much of my trust onto BM and PBuG in particular. Half of the people on OTU's wagon are already identidfied to be town. If the remaining are town as well, I'm already doomed. I don't think only 2 anti-town people were enough to push OTU to 11 votes. Also, BM was also on DGB (town) wagon on D2, IH yesterday, and trying to kill n9v today.

Why have you got al4x down as scum?

[The Fonz]

and ive pointed out that imho, both of those scenarios are immensely unlikely.

No, they're not. It's as simple as that.

[The Fonz]

It's not that you have a different opinion, it's that you're presenting your opinion as fact and using it to push a course of action that is to the town's detriment.

[The Fonz]

No, I didn't. I never said N9V is definitely town. This is an obvious and blatant misrepresentation. I said, we have enough reason to think N9V might still be town that it would clearly be a mistake to lynch him

today

. There are positions which fall between 'lynch him now' and 'never lynch him.' Namely, keep him alive for another four or so days, collecting investigations, then if he hasn't been nightkilled by then, we think about lynching him.

Oh, and nice rolefishing.

[The Fonz]

EBWODP: It's just so incredibly unlikely that a scum would employ a gambit of claiming that early, when not under pressure, and claim a guilty on an innocent party immediately.

[The Fonz]

WHAT THE HELL???? You want to keep a dubious cop alive indefinitely for at least 4 days!?
it'll probably be endgame by then.

Well, duh, if it's anywhere near endgame, we then consider lynching him. Perhaps four was a little strong, i thought there were a couple more alive than there are. But a couple more investigations are likely to tell us whether he's insane or not (since a vast majority of players will be innocent, several guilties implies insane). If we're lucky, he gets results pointing in opposite directions on the next two days.

Also, within a couple of days, the cop who finds wolves/real cop is likely to have had enough investigations for it to be worth coming forward, rather than risk getting NKed and not providing any info. There's also the (pretty damn likely) possibility of an N9V nightkill if town. The mafia might have left him alive last night because they have a roleblocker, or because, as they knew IH wasn't one of them, they had a good shot at getting town to stupidly lynch him today. That doesn't mean they can afford to leave him alive indefinitely.

[The Fonz]

I'd suggest leaving n9v alive for now. If he is real cop, he could do a few more investigation. If he is fake, the real cop would claim eventually, with a few more investigation and we would know (with more confidence) that n9v is lying.

That's pretty much my position.

Also, what is it in Al's deathscene that said 'more likely scum than town' to you?

[The Fonz]

BM, if your a townie, then start acting like one.

Vote BM

this is where my vote stays, unlesswe can all agreethat the best play is to lynch raffles to decide my sanity.

Bah, lynching Raffles is a terrible idea. That means if Ih was a miller, we've pretty much lost.

Lynch raffles, comes up town

Oooh, can't be insane, must be lying.

Lynch N9V. Actually was cop.

Luck on the NKs could end the game there, i think.

[The Fonz]

@The Fonz-your logic is ridiculous. You are scared to kill Raffles or N9V because even though it might gain information, they might be town, and then decide to lynch me, who is town, and will probably teach you nothing. Not to mention you will have the same quandry tomorrow, but with less players left to decide.

the fact he has just OMGUSed me, seals the deal.

BM

MY logic is ridiculous? That's a good one, BM. So your reason we shouldn't vote you is 1) you say you're town and b) we'll get less information from it than other lynches.

What the hell makes you think we'll learn nothing from your lynch? We're far more likely to learn more from a new wagon, than from reheating and old one (Raffles). We'll learn even more BY KEEPING THE GODDAMN COP ALIVE!

Also, lynching for information is in general a bad idea. I want you lynched because I'm confident you're scum. No other reason is necessary, or indeed desirable.

As for the OMGUS- you know this is N9V we're talking about, right?

[The Fonz]

I don't know how you're reaching this conclusion, and I can't see how it could be true. First, lynching Raffles doesn't necessitate that we lynch N9V if Raffles is pro-town (something I still think is unlikely and will address in my next post).

Does it necessitate it? Nope. But most of those pushing 'lynch raffles' are suggesting it as a kind of test. What's the point of a test lynch, if we can't use the results thereof to draw conclusions about someone else's alignment?

Second, I think the case for IH being a miller is tenuous, and would rather verify whether N9V is insane than presume he was stymied by a miller and wait around for him to get another guilty result. And fundamentally that's what you're suggesting we do, since we aren't testing his innocent results.

I don't think it's tenuous at all. And no, I'm not suggesting we wait around for another guilty. We might not have that much time. But two more innocents makes insane cop look pretty unlikely, doesn't it?

Third, it's a very rare game when multiple scum groups don't also have to eliminate one another to win. So it would take some very serious luck on the part of one scum faction to end the game there. You're suggesting that the town might be well into the minority by that time, which is certainly possible, but in games with multiple scum groups it is not uncommon for town to come back from that as the scum turn their attention more heavily to eliminating one another.

It would take a lot of luck, certainly, but it's not impossible. It would clearly put the town in a big hole (then again, that's generally true of two mislynches. I wouldn't be pushing this angle quite so hard were I not convinced that Raffles then N9V

would

constitute two mislynches).

[The Fonz]

That wasn't quite my point. You were saying that you felt most of the people on the Raffles bandwagon were scummy. My point was that spectrumvoid's presence on the bandwagon ought to be an indicator to you that pro-town individuals thought (and still think) Raffles was worth a vote, too. You might disagree with SV and with me, but you're in the position to know (or else presumably would claim) that she wasn't doing it for scummy reasons. Ideally I hope I've convinced you that Raffles is worth lynching, but failing that, I at least hope you recognize that I'm not pushing for it for scummy reasons.

I didn't say precisely

who

on that wagon I found scummy, though. (Well, not at the time- I came down on Kison later). Naturally someone town had to be on it. Frankly, the logic of your last post was fairly convincing in its townishness, in itself. I don't agree that several of the things you're pointing out mean what you think/claim to think they do, but I didn't find it scummy.

However, I do find it offputting that you feel the need to say 'I hope you recognize that I'm not pushing it for scummy reasons.' I'm perfectly capable of reading your argument, and everyone else's on that wagon for that matter, and reflecting on their scummishness or otherwise for myself. It just seems a little... desperate. I'd like to know why you seem to assume it's you I find scummy out of the waggoners.

[The Fonz]

On N9V: I think its more likely that he's telling the truth and IH was a miller.

As for Raffles, there is one thing I'd like to point out: If N9V is to be believed, he's not mafia. MoS, who turned out to be a wolf, pushed pretty hard for Raffles' lynch on D2, so its unlikely that Raffles is a wolf. That puts him out of both main scum groups.

However, this doesn't rule him being part of a third scum group. He seemed pretty dead set against there being more than 2 scum groups on D2. His insistence that there is no cult worries me, and he argued against analyzing the night scene. I suspect he's either a serial killer (trying to attribute his N1 kill to a known scum group) or a cult member/leader (trying to persuade the town that there is no cult).

Vote: Raffles

MOD: Please prod bird1111

I wouldn't assume the presence of a third scumgroup. I certainly wouldn't use it as a justification to vote someone you don't think is in either of the killing groups. An SK would mean four killing groups, that we had two nights with only one kill makes me think that is unlikely.

@ Reyo: Exactly.

[The Fonz]

Raffles may have been a 'prime suspect' but I actually think that wagon was poorly-reasoned and full of scum.

I read "full of scum" as implying a suspicion of a large number of people on the wagon, not just "Well, it was a big wagon. Somebody must have been scum."

Those on the Raffles wagon at its height: Fuldu, Kison, Mastermind of Sin, Mr. Flay, PBuG, spectrumvoid

We know Flay to be innocent (surprisingly), and MoS to be scum.

I think a wagon of six with two or three scum on it deserves the label 'full of scum.' I happen to suspect Kison and PBuG more than I do you.

[The Fonz]

There is a point there- it would have taken an exceptionally bold scum to claim that early, and declare a guilty on an innocent. I think the 'miller' explanation makes much more sense.

@ BM- It didn't say what Al's role was, either.

[The Fonz]

I am surprised several of you are willing to give Bird1111 another day pass on this game. He doesn't need any prodding from the Mod. The Mod already prodded him in the past and told us he didn't need any more. (Post 1103 for those skimming.) Basically he spent 3 days hiding and no one blinked an eye, except Flay and XReyoX, 1 of which wound up dead.

I really don't trust The Fonz either. The way his posts attempt to move the crowd 1 step at a time seems manipulative.

Pah, he's got a guilty. Whether you feel like accepting it at face value or not, it's testable.

After no disapproval from the crowd...

He'd have to be really stupid scum to claim right now. If scum are really stupid, they tend to give themselves away sooner or later anyway. Hence, I see no reason not to test his result.

Pray tell, what exactly is wrong with this? It makes no sense to cast suspicion on a claimed cop with a testable result, and anyone doing so is quite likely to have an ulterior motive.

After IH's lynch and some accusations get directed at N9V...

The important thing you're forgetting is, if he's not the real mafia-finding cop, THERE'S ALMOST CERTAINLY ANOTHER ONE OUT THERE. So unless and until he gets counterclaimed, we shouldn't lynch him.

Here, he's offered a trade to a real cop abandoning his cover to confirm or deny what N9V has done.

That's complete BS. You can't possibly believe that's what i was doing there. I was not, and it was obvious that I was not, suggesting that the 'real cop' blow his cover here and now. See the next part you quoted, emphasis mine:

If there's someone capable of counterclaiming,

they'll come out eventually or be NKed,

and there's no harm in leaving N9V alive until that point.

Again, reiterating N9V should receive lynch immunity until a real cop exposes himself.

Yup, fakeclaims this early have a habit of resolving themselves. Either the real cop dies, or has enough info to feel he's able to benefit the town by coming out. This is almost certain to happen before endgame (given the dubious nature of cop claims in endgame). Hence, there is little real risk in keeping N9V alive for the time being.

I'd suggest leaving N9V alive, but not lynching solely on the basis of his results, for a few days yet.

Here he suggests we wait a few days before deciding on N9V. Well let's see. In 3 days we've lost 8 people. We're averaging over 2 fatalities a day. In a few days, assuming "few" means 3 we will average another 7 deaths, leaving 6 alive to come to a decision.

Wrong. We are not averaging over two a day. We have had one twice, and three once. That averages to two precisely, and one of the killing groups is dead. Assuming that there is not a fourth killing group (unlikely, given two nights of only one kill) there ought to be a

maximum

of six dead, with the possibility of fewer.

Given that there's also the chance that the situation resolves itself, I'd be quite happy with that as a worst-case scenario. The worst case scenario for lynching the cop today is much worse. The best case scenario isn't any better for lynching him now rather than later, either.

If IH was a Miller role, wouldn't that show up on his role tag? I think N9V is lying. As much as I don't trust BM & Fuldu, I think their appraisal of the situation is accurate.

It didn't show up on Al's tag whether he was cult, mafia or mason. Why would it come up on IH's? We seem to have a limited-reveal game. Deal with it.

Massive FOS: anyone pushing an N9V lynch today

Here, The Fonz attempts to assert himself as an authority on this game's theme, ironically being a day 3 replacement. Sorry, if I don't just "deal with it" and place my vote where I'm told based on your coaxing.

Ad hominem attack. I did not state I was an authority on the game, I point out something that was available for anyone to look at. It's quite clear Akbar, and it's there in plain English, written by Phoebus- we have a limited-reveal game. We have been given the rolename of each dead player, and nothing else.

@Kison: How does n9v trying to investigate you make him not a scum?

What is it with you and the rampant rolefishing?

This is not exactly what I'd call an offhand comment. Either The Fonz believes XReyoX is deliberately fishing or not. It looks to be just thrown out there to see if anyone would run with it.

Here we see you utterly reaching in order to fabricate a case. Yes, that post gave me the impression that Reyo was rolefishing, as did a previous one.

The circumstances are a million miles from 'infinitely unlikely.' IH's death scene was kinda mysterious on the subject of his alignment- good reason to suspect, etc, but no firm proof- it didn't say out-and-out that IH was town.

I find this comment to be ridiculous. IH came up with the same coloring as a Retired Cop and a Gardener. I don't know if the Mod got lazy on the other coloring or some event is preventing it, but if we're going to ignore the information from death scenes, we might as well be using random.org to finish out the game.
OTU was BLUE Retired Cop
Alex was RED ESE
Mr. Flay was BLUE Gardener
Mneme was uncolored Baker
IH was BLUE Mayor
DGB was uncolored Silversmith
Shanba was uncolored Strongman
MoS was uncolored Lycanthrope

Alex was NOT red. In the flavour text of the death scene, the words

ESE Member

was coloured red, because the flavour had those words written in blood upon his membership card. The actual game message:

al4xz - ESE Member - strangled - Night 1

Was written in black, bolded.

It's also worth noting:

OverTheUnder - Retired Cop - banished - Day 1

Here, the entire sentence is written in blue. Normally, when mods are trying to convey alignment by colour-coding, It's written in this kinda format:

The Fonz,

Vanilla Townie

, has been killed.

or

The Fonz,

Mafia Goon,

has been lynched.

With just the name or the role coloured. The fact that when it has been written in blue, the whole thing's been in blue, makes me think the colour-coding is meaningless.

Also- youfind it ridiculous to use deathscene flavour, in a limited-reveal game, yet you're happy to use colouring when both town and scum roles have come up uncoloured previously?

Hence, we leave N9V alive for a few more days, but don't necessarily lynch on his recommendation. We basically ignore him for a while. We don't have to commit to leaving him alive to anywhere near endgame.

This comment implying that we won't be at endgame in a few days, which is likely false.

Endgame to me means three or four alive. So, no, we won't.

No! It's not! It would be lying if we could prove that IH appeared innocent to investigations, AND N9V is definitely not insane. As we cannot prove either of those things, we cannot say for sure that N9V is lying.

Only N9V and possible scumbuddies can be sure. But, I believe the Mod's coloring of IH is more credible than The Fonz's speculation.

Precisely, only N9V and putative scumbuddies can be sure. This was in a direct response to Battle Mage saying that we

could

be sure n9V was lying.

Also, even if blue did mean innocent, why would it necessarily imply not-miller? Most millers are not death millers. your attempt to tie 'IH was written in blue' to 'N9V is lying' is ridiculous.

No, I didn't. I never said N9V is definitely town. This is an obvious and blatant misrepresentation. I said, we have enough reason to think N9V might still be town that it would clearly be a mistake to lynch him today. There are positions which fall between 'lynch him now' and 'never lynch him.' Namely,

keep him alive for another four or so days, collecting investigations, then if he hasn't been nightkilled by then, we think about lynching him.

Now that the 3 day immunity has gathered little resistance, we should increase it to "four days or so."

Outright lie. I never suggested specifically a three-day period. So now you're openly accusing me of changing my position from something I never actually said, which is scummy as hell. Or are you actually trying to argue that 'a few' could not possibly be read as 'four or so?'

Well, we have 13 players, losing 2 or 3 a day. After 4 days of waiting, at our current rate will garner 8 to 12 casualties. Keep in mind The Fonz said "4 days or so," implying it would be just as safe to wait 5 days, yielding 10 to 15 casualties(assuming that was possible), then we can THINK about N9V lying.

I've already explained why 'two or three a day' is false. And 'four or so' could equally imply three as five, yet of course you assume five. Also: IT WAS A MISTAKE. As I said in my reply to BM earlier, I shouldn't have said four, I thought there were a couple more alive than there were. Frankly, we'll be in a position to know if he's insane or not with two more investigations. Two guilties, we can lynch Raffles. An innocent and a guilty, we can lynch the guilty, if he comes up innocent, we lynch the other two. Two innocents isn't so useful, but it at least tells us he is not insane, so there's no real reason to lynch anyone he's investigated- plus if we lynch N9V at that point, we might get his sanity. If he claims no-result a couple of times, then we probably have to lynch him.

And bear in mind, this is all assuming nothing else happens to confirm or refute N9V's story in the meantime. I do think Kison's thing about the 'weird happenings' actually lends credibility to N9V's claim.

I also don't like The Fonz playing stupid about Alex being scum. His name is in Red. He had an S&M torture room in his house! What else would he be?

Again, this is not true. His name was uncoloured, and he's into S&M and a member of a secret organisation. There are non-scum explanation for this. It's not like anyone's been killed in an S&M type way.

[The Fonz]

Please explain to mean how 2 deaths, 2 deaths and 4 deaths became "one twice and three once".

One NK night one. One night two. Three night three. For the hard of thinking, that averages out at two per night.

I've already explained why 'two or three a day' is false.

And 'four or so' could equally imply three as five

, yet of course you assume five.

Is English your native language? Does anyone else here think "4 or so" could mean 3?

Is it yours? Does anyone else here think 'four or so' means five any more than it does three? Four or so means 'roughly four.'

Alex was NOT red. In the flavour text of the death scene, the words ESE Member was coloured red, because the flavour had those words written in blood upon his membership card.

Let me see if I got this straight. Your saying that an organization that writes their names in blood on memberships cards is Town-Based? Sure.

You think an organisation that has membership cards AT ALL is mafia? Does Tony Soprano walk around with a little card that say 'Mobster #256753' and has a little mugshot on it? Maybe gives details of his local branch?

And besides, this isn't even the point. You claimed his name was written in red. I proved you not to be telling the truth in this regard. You, of course, decide to change the subject.

Again, this is not true. His name was uncoloured, and he's into S&M and a member of a secret organisation.

There are non-scum explanation for this.

(

Possible admission of affiliation

) It's not like anyone's been killed in an S&M type way.

So by that logic, we can't even be sure MoS was one of the wolves. His death says Lycanthrope. Lycanthrope could be any "wear" creature. Maybe he was a Wear-Badger http://www.weebls-stuff.com/toons/badgers2/ and the wolves in the title are actually just Timber Wolves from Oregon.

This is just so utterly ridiculous that I'm not going to justify it with a response.

[The Fonz]

533, not 532, is the one which formally announces Al's death.

[The Fonz]

The Fonz, are you trying to say that al4xz was not scum?

I'm saying I don't know. I certainly don't think he's mafia or Wolf. The logical possibilities that remain are cult and mason, and he could be either of those.

[The Fonz]

The flavour text? Absolutely. As I said before, the actual death announcement was in black, not in red.

[The Fonz]

The flavour text? Absolutely. As I said before, the actual death announcement was in black, not in red.

But the flavortext evidence that IH was a miller is so strong that you're willing to give N9V a pass, not only on whether he's telling the truth, but even on the possibility that he might be insane?

Nope. I really don't think you can get that from what I wrote. See my post 1480, 'I think we'll be in a position to know if he's insane with two more investigations.'

[The Fonz]

Did BM really suggest that looking for possible connections between two other players is scummy?

[The Fonz]

unvote, vote XreyoX

Yes, I know it's a bit of a dick move to vote someone who's just requested replacement. But a re-read of MoS reveals a lot of posts which could be seen as coaching, and I want the replacement to arrive under a little pressure.

[The Fonz]

unvote, vote XreyoX

Yes, I know it's a bit of a dick move to vote someone who's just requested replacement. But a re-read of MoS reveals a lot of posts which could be seen as coaching, and I want the replacement to arrive under a little pressure.

So to place "a little pressure"(with a lone vote) on an unknown replacement, your removing your vote off your perceived scum? That makes sense.

Who says I find Battle Mage basically being Battle Mage scummier than having a potential tie to the one confirmed scum? Besides, we're not under any particular time pressure that precludes us from investigating multiple angles?

[The Fonz]

I just don't see the need. I think it's better to wait to get a couple more results, and see if the whole cop thing clears itself up, than to rush into lynching a claimed cop on the basis of a death where alignment wasn't revealed and the flavour strongly hinted miller.

[The Fonz]

That he's playing pretty much as he always does, and there are no real tells I've noticed either way.

[The Fonz]

You're entirely right Akbar, I'd completely forgotten the relative scumminess of two players is set in stone and once I vote someone, nothing that happens should change my view.

[The Fonz]

As shown in that bit you quoted, I voted BM because he continually insisted that it was the case that it had been proven N9V was a liar. This was clearly untrue, so I voted him.

Subsequent events such as BM's bizarre insistence that pointing out possible links is scummy, plus having read up on completed games of his, indicate that it might be entirely possible that he could be the kind of player who genuinely believed what he was saying, however illogical it seemed to me.

Meanwhile, a re-read of the one confirmed scum brought up what I felt was an interesting new angle, one worth pursuing.

The sarcasm was because you seemed to be making the ridiculous suggestion that I couldn't possibly change my mind on whether or not Battle Mage/Reyo were scummy, based on new evidence.

[The Fonz]

That's why I said 'a little' pressure. But come on, if no one ever placed the first pressure vote, there'd never be any. My re-read flagged something up that I thought was of interest: I used my vote to draw attention to it, if a couple of go back and look at it, agree with me, we've got pressure. If no-one does, that at least opens the angle of 'am I really reading too much into this; or is he being protected?'

You also seem to have this worrying habit, when you say something, I point out how it's wrong strange, or misleading, (see: your insistence that Al's death announcement was in red, when it wasn't, that bit there about BM being 'my perceived scum' as if I couldn't possibly have changed my mind) then you change the subject to another facet of what I've said.

[The Fonz]

The Fonz, what do you think about my response to your reasons for voting me?

It was pretty good, but I wouldn't expect a vet player replacing in to drop a huge scumtell immediately, so it's not enough in itself to have me move my vote. If anything, I see your having seen the need to ask this question this quickly as more revealing than the first post itself.

@Fonz
Would you prefer I stuck to one particular subject then? You just got finished saying you liked to explore more than 1 angle. Should that not apply to yourself?

Applying that to myself is fine, I'm happy to answer questions about any aspect of my behaviour you like. The point, though, was that I find it suspect that you continually seek to change the subject from anything that might make

you

look scummy.

As far as Alex red colored tag, I still say your wrong. But, I'm not going to continually post that trying to change your mind. Assuming that's your real position on the subject.

Of course you're going to stick with that line, you've got to, admitting deliberately misleading the town is a surefire way to get lynched. However, I still feel that there was an obvious misrepresentation, and there's a decent chance it was deliberate:



This post, I think isn't far off smoking gun:

I find this comment to be ridiculous. IH came up with the same coloring as a Retired Cop and a Gardener. I don't know if the Mod got lazy on the other coloring or some event is preventing it, but if we're going to ignore the information from death scenes, we might as well be using random.org to finish out the game.
OTU was BLUE Retired Cop

Alex was RED ESE

Mr. Flay was BLUE Gardener
Mneme was uncolored Baker
IH was BLUE Mayor
DGB was uncolored Silversmith
Shanba was uncolored Strongman
MoS was uncolored Lycanthrope

Because as is obvious for anyone to see, that 533, not 532, the flavour post where the red text was actually found, is the equivalent post for Al as 530 was for OTU.

-IH is a reverse Godfather, otherwise known as Miller. Not likely, his death certificate made no mention of it. Unlike Alex and MoS that plainly identified their faction.

Again, this is pretty close to being a flat-out lie. We get role names, not alignments, and there is no reason to think a politician is particularly unlikely to be miller or traitor. Alex's deathscene did not reveal his alignment, it's as plain as day.

If IH was a Miller role, wouldn't that show up on his role tag?

Why would IH's death be any different to everyone else's in the game thus far?

The only chance that N9V is innocent is if he's an insane cop.

You're utterly writing off the miller explanation, and I can't think why a town player wouldn't want to consider every possible angle.

Also of note, neither scum group tried to kill N9V.

This, to me, is a 'we left N9V alive because we thought we could get him lynched, and are now using that to help ensure it comes true' kinda tell.

The fact that N9V is not voting Raffles instead of BM is suspect as well, considering the only chance N9V's innocent is being Insane Cop. This of course would mean Raffles is scum.

Again, using a non-sequitur (and arguing by repetition) to label someone else as scum.

In fact, this, combined with the attempt to strawman me with craplogic, makes me think you're a pretty good bet for scum.

FOS: Akbar

[The Fonz]

Again, this is pretty close to being a flat-out lie. We get role names, not alignments, and there is no reason to think a politician is particularly unlikely to be miller or traitor. Alex's deathscene did not reveal his alignment, it's as plain as day.

And this is where you lose me. Your argument relies heavily on the notion that IH, based on a fairly vague interpretation of his deathscene, is likely to be a miller.

My argument is that it is a possibility which it is not pro-town to ignore. By fixating on one possible reason for N9V to have reported a guilty on someone whose deathscene made him seem

likely town

, people are suggesting a course of action (lynch Raffles, then if he comes up town lynch N9V) which would be hugely detrimental to the town in the not-that-unlikely case that N9V is a sane cop and IH a miller. We can get a much better picture by waiting for a couple more results. Like I said, two more innocents and we can pretty much rule out insane cop. Then the correct play (depending on the number of crosskills) is likely to be an N9V lynch. Two guilties, and it seems highly likely. Raffles lynch. One of each, I think we're in a good situation either way.

At the same time, you argue that, even though al4xz's death scene labels him as an ESE member in red, and provides a number of reasonably disturbing (even using the word "disturbing") images to go with it, you're unconvinced that he was scum.

Right, so the fact that he was labelled an ESE member in red (flavour, rather than indication of alignment, since the writing was in blood, hence red) indicates to us that he was a member of a society called the ESE. There have been no nightkills of other people using any of 'ropes, whips, handcuffs, knives and rolls of linen' there might be a case to suggest that the ESE were a scum group. (Ignoring for a second the very obvious point that it is hugely unlikely a scumgroup would walk around with membership cards in their pockets).

So they're likely to be, at worst, a cult. And cults generally recruit. Given the fact that no more ESE have died, and so many different people have come out with the 'ESE are anti-town' assumption, or attacked other people on the grounds they might be ESE, I find it hard to see who might be the recruits, since the recruiter would presumably have been successful three times (having not died trying to recruit scum) on top of what members the cult might have begun with. So we'd be looking at

at least

four ESE right now.

Either you trust the circumstantial evidence of the death scenes or you don't, but you can't have it both ways.

And more than that, the circumstantial evidence that al4xz was scum is a lot stronger than the circumstantial evidence that IH was a miller.

This last part is basically the premise of your argument, and it's one I reject utterly. I don't believe the circumstantial evidence that Al was scum is stronger than the evidence that IH was a miller, at all.

[The Fonz]

Ed: closer inspection reveals that the words ESE member weren't even written in actual blood, just that the writing on the membership card was red in colour.

[The Fonz]

Applying that to myself is fine, I'm happy to answer questions about any aspect of my behaviour you like. The point, though, was that I find it suspect that you continually seek to change the subject from anything that might make you look scummy.

Talk about changing the subject. That's what you just did. Claiming that I look scummy because I'm suspicious of you is no better than OMGUS voting.

Did you actually read what I wrote? I never said that you look scummy because you're suspicious of me. You're scummy a) because of your headlong charge to try to get a claimed cop lynched prematurely and b) the craplogic you employ, both against me and in relation to others. There is a world of difference between finding someone scummy because they attack you, and finding the

way

that they attack you scummy.

However, I still feel that there was an obvious misrepresentation, and there's a decent chance it was deliberate:

Ok, so now accusing me of misrepresenting a dead guy. I hope we don't accidentally lynch him incorrectly.

Dishonesty is scummy, however deployed. And yes, misrepresenting the

game situation

can lead to mislynches. Check the following scenario:

1. You lie about someone being 'confirmed scum.'
2. You are then able to use this to build an inaccurate case against someone, based on their tie to the 'confirmed scum' who actually is anything but.

In regards to the death scenes

Again, this is pretty close to being a flat-out lie. We get role names, not alignments, and there is no reason to think a politician is particularly unlikely to be miller or traitor. Alex's deathscene did not reveal his alignment, it's as plain as day.

Your version of a lie must be any opinion that doesn't agree with yours.
Fact: Alex came up ESE Member, Mos came up Wolf, and IH came up Mayor. [/quote]

Yes, that is the fact. It also doesn't support the position you are taking.
My version of a lie isn't anything that disagrees with me, but something said that is demonstrably untrue, with you knowing it to be untrue at the time you said it. Let me explain: you said Al came up red where OTU came up blue. This is UNTRUE. How many times do I have to explain this to you?

What's plain as day is you trying to act like your being productive but shooting down every lead we have by chanting your mantra of "we can't be sure."

BS. What leads do you think we have? N9V's wrong result? I've explained how I think we can resolve that in the town's best interest. Al? There's no lead there whatsoever.

Why would IH's death be any different to everyone else's in the game thus far?

That's the point. Miller is a ROLE not an alignment. What did we get from everyone's death scenes? Their ROLES.

OMG! HOW DUMB ARE YOU! WE GOT THEIR ROLE

NAMES

! Do you really believe 'Gardener at the estate' is a specific role? Shanba came back 'strongman' not 'vig.' And I'll bet you a pound to a penny, if N9V dies and is telling the truth, he will come up 'Magistrate of Lupieri' rather than 'cop.' Therefore, it is virtually CERTAIN that a miller will not come up 'miller.'

Again, using a non-sequitur (and arguing by repetition) to label someone else as scum.

In fact, this, combined with the attempt to strawman me with craplogic, makes me think you're a pretty good bet for scum.

Again, no different than an OMGUS vote.

Yeah, I forgot, I'm completely banned from pointing out anything scummy you do, if it's directed at me. Riiiiiight.

Btw, you just claimed I was changing the subject frequently. Now your saying I'm using repetition to label. If your going to fabricate suspicion, you should keep track of your contradictions.

You're the one who is fabricating. Repeatedly, in fact. When I said you were changing the subject, I was referring specifically to the conversation between the two of us. You used the argument from repetition against

N9V

.

Do you honestly deny that you repeatedly said 'The only way N9V is telling the truth is if he is insane?'

You seem to be acting as if you have some divine right to always be on the offensive in this argument, however scummy you act during it, and then dismiss any mention of your very scummy behaviour by declaring it OMGUS.

[The Fonz]

You seem to be acting as if you have some divine right to always be on the offensive in this argument, however scummy you act during it, and then dismiss any mention of your very scummy behaviour by declaring it OMGUS.

Divine right!? Look who the f*** is talking. Telling people your speculation of the death scene is more accurate than anyone else. And you keep bringing up N9V repeatedly, (oh what was that you said about arguing through repetition to make a lie truth?), my god what a hypocrite.

Another lie. I never said my interpretation is more accurate than anyone else's. My problem is that you are either jumping to conclusions, or deliberately misrepresenting the situation, not considering the second that anything but your pre-ordained conclusion might be the case. As if you actually think you automatically know what the mod is thinking, and no-one else has any right to post a contrary opinion.

And, just in case you hadn't noticed, you still haven't addresssed the fact that you said something categorically untrue about the death scenes. You continually change the subject. Since you've not admitted that this was a mistake, you're either incredibly stubborn, or it was a deliberate attemp to mislead.

Let's see, last time I was talking about N9V's cop claim is post 1481. So over 65 posts ago is your version of the "

HEADLONG CHARGE

", didn't want to miss the sensationalism you added, meanwhile my vote sits on Battle Mage.

You want to be offensive, go for it. Since apparently that's more important to you than the content of what's being argued.

You claimed my suspicions of you were OMGUS. I explained the evolution of my suspicion. The fact that you are no longer on N9V is not irrelevant, but it does not mean you being on N9V in the first place was not scummy. Your repeated refusal to accept anything other than insanity was

even a possibility

was what caused me to characterise it as a headlong charge toward the lynching of innocents, accurately I believe.

Apologies for being offensive, I let my immense frustration at your conduct get the better of me.

[The Fonz]

[quote="Akbar]

Sure enough, I got attacked. Unfortunately it was by our Vigilante. I illustrated the details of the attack for anyone to reference. The key point being attacked at home. I have no night action.[/quote]

Being attacked at home would prove you didn't

make

a night action that night, not that you don't

have

one. Al was killed at home, and you seem to believe that he's confirmed scum. Can't have it both ways. All this witch, item, stuff is rather confusing, though it does appear to speak slightly in your favour, and strongly in PBuG's.

So The Fonz can try to twist our argument around all he wants. But, he can't twist the testimonies of a Vigilante, A Claimed Cop, and a Runesmith or whatever the role is.

Why would I want to? Seriously, what has any of that last post got to do with me? You're just having a go for the sake of it.

My arguments have been entirely based around your making unwarranted and illogical leaps, and refusing to see the facts right before your eyes, which means you're either stubborn and prone to jumping to conclusions, or scum trying to cause a mislynch. These facts are:

1. Al's deathscene was written in black, not red as you claimed.
2. We have a limited-reveal game, as shown by the fact that the vig came up 'strongman' and a (likely) townsperson came up 'gardener.' Hence your claim that IH could not possibly be a miller because he did not come up 'miller' does not make sense.

You use these errors/misreprensentations to justify the assumptions that a) al is definitely scum and b) IH was definitely not a miller. These are not safe assumptions to make, in fact I'd be willing to bet a substantial amount that you're wrong on at least one of those. With regard to the whole 'miller' thing, as I said, I believe my proposal gives us a fairly low-risk way of working out if indeed N9V is insane, without risking mislynching on the basis of an incorrect assumption.

You yourself said early on that you didn't think ESE was a cult. Now, I think you'd agree with me that the pattern of 1,1,3 (with one of the three attributed to a vig), on the nightkills does not suggest a third antitown killing group. That would mean multiple protective roles each being successful multiple times.

So, I'm guessing, as of right now, your position

has

to be that you believe the ESE to be the mafia in this game, right? Since MoS came up wolf. I believe that this is highly unlikely for flavour reasons, since:

1. The disturbing things noted in Al's deathscene do not tally with the nature of the nightkills which have occurred. We can, I think, safely presume that the shooting was a mafia kill. The victim wasn't tied up and whipped to death, or found hanging by the neck with an orange in his mouth or anything.

2. Mafia do not, in general, carry membership cards.

3. N9V, if telling the truth, was told that he finds mafia, not ESE. Plus his claimed name is 'Magistrate.' This would make me think we're dealing with regular-type-criminals.

You made this post, directed at DGB:

In regards to the ESE "clearly not being Mafia, just because its not spelled that way." This game takes place in a town with horse drawn carriages. The mafia don't have to be pasta-eating, cadillac-driving, guidos with tommy-guns. ESE could just be the flavor.

Now, I would agree with this sentiment, you appear to be going to the other extreme. It's not wise to assume they

are

mafia, either.

Now, if you want to make a rational, grown-up argument in response to these points, be my guest.

[The Fonz]

Now, if you want to make a rational, grown-up argument in response to these points, be my guest.

Rehashing the same debate and being condescending about it doesn't change anything. Isn't that what you said to BM? Repeating it doesn't make it true.

Given what you post next, this is hilariously hypocritical.

The fact is, you suggested a faulty strategy, which was even self-admitted:

Perhaps four was a little strong, i thought there were a couple more alive than there are.

I pointed out flaws in it. Now your afraid how it made you look so your attacking me.

That was an admitted mistake, and yet you're still going on about it. How's that for arguing from repetition? And, yet again, you change the subject, away from the questions I actually asked in my last post, back onto to something irrelevant that puts you back on the offensive.

@Thok: My point about the ESE card, not the death announcement written in red ink is that Akbar is specifically misrepresenting the past, and when called on it, has not admitted this and just changed the subject time after time.

And, actually, a werewolf killed at night would show up, presumably. Do you not find it odd that the mafia have killed with the usual mafia method, ie shooting, and yet of all the disturbing things found in Al's house, a gun or ammo wasn't any of them, nor did he have one on his person?

[The Fonz]

I think a dump of the people out and about is probably a bad idea. It gets us a list that includes (presumably) one person from each scum group and all power roles who did something (likely all cops and docs, for example). That seems much more valuable to scum.

Agreed. As far as I can see, it has all the disadvantages of a mass claim, without any of the advantages, since it allows any scum PBuG has seen to formulate a fakeclaim based on what he says, rather than having everyone claim roles first, then reveal information.

I actually think Akbar makes an extremely good point about PBuG still being alive. It doesn't make a lot of sense for a scum role who's been given the identity of a town power role not to kill him.

Then again, he has been caught in a lie.

[The Fonz]

I actually think Akbar makes an extremely good point about PBuG still being alive. It doesn't make a lot of sense for a scum role who's been given the identity of a town power role not to kill him.

Then again, he has been caught in a lie.

What no "Akbar's claimed doc we must must must keep him alive?"

Haha. I was actually expecting the attack on that particular comment to come from the opposite direction, since I'm a big LALer. In all seriousness, though, what is the difference between my desire to leave the N9V situation to see if it resolves itself/ if we can get a couple of useful results out of it, and this:

My personal feeling is to let scum deal with Akbar at night, now that's he's painted a big bulls-eye on himself. I'm pretty sure that he's a frustrated protown player, albeit one who's playing poorly.

?

Incidentally, if Akbar protected me night one, that would explain why throughout this entire flamewar, he's never once voted me.

[The Fonz]

The Fonz, the difference is that your only justification for keeping N9V around is his cop claim, otherwise he's a giant neutral to you. I was already defending Akbar because of the tone I got from his posts (and because of the tone I saw from his attackers); in fact you'll noticed in post 1565 that I was certain enough of Akbar's protownishness that I thought something else was going on. In other words, I'm giving reasons other than "Akbar is a power role" to keep him around; you seem to be slavishly going "must defend claimed power role".

Last time I checked, I believe it was usually incumbent on players to find reasons

to

lynch, not to find reasons not to. He's a claimed cop, I haven't seen any particular scumtells from him, and it's still entirely possible he's telling the truth. Why should I support his lynch? Especially when those pushing his lynch (mostly BM and Akbar at the time) were using such obvious craplogic. Do you not agree that using craplogic and mispresenting things to get a claimed power role lynched are things that ought to concern a town player?

[The Fonz]

What's everyone's thoughts on a massclaim today?

[The Fonz]

That's probably best. The only concern I would have is that we definitely need PBuG alive for a massclaim to work. Still, I suppose even if Akbar's lying, there's still the possibility of another doc.

[The Fonz]

If there's a real possibility of roleblock,(I, too, had overlooked that) then we should reveal the information, perhaps prematurely, rather than risk losing it. Given that we have a claimed cop, doc, and runesmith, plus the likelihood that DGB was some kind of anti-wolf powerrole, I think we're likely to end up outing more scum than useful town roles.

[The Fonz]

Unvote, vote Bird1111.

If PBuG is getting at what I think he is.

[The Fonz]

Oh, and second the machinegun prodding request.

[The Fonz]

Come off it. Are you really telling me there's nothing worthy of comment in the last several pages of dialogue?

[The Fonz]

Yes, and it's been there for a while.

[The Fonz]

i dont think No-Lynching is a good idea, so i will

Unvote, Vote: Bird

This seems dubious to me. We are already in the position where Bird will be lynched at deadline. Your not voting him wouldn't prevent that. Seems to me more likely you seem particularly concerned with being seen to be on a scum wagon.

[The Fonz]

Who exactly is guaranteed town, BM?

[The Fonz]

OIC. I thought you meant N9V, since that was where your vote was.

[The Fonz]

EBWODP: Or some other weird combo. After all, you are, well, you. I don't really think you were in any danger.

[The Fonz]

Akbar still alive and kicking? I really wasn't expecting that.

[The Fonz]

Massclaim today Thok? Or not?

[The Fonz]

I suppose we ought, at least, to wait for PBuG.

[The Fonz]

Why, BM? Did you have any reason to suspect him beyond his claimed guilty on a player who appeared unlikely to be scum from his deathscene?

[The Fonz]

i believe i already explained my reasons for suspecting him.

no seriously, im in alot of games with N9V, and this same thing happened AGAINST him there. i just have a gut feeling that he thinks the same thing will work here, and he will gain unquestionned protection for a while.

Yup. You explained it based off gut feeling, and the fact that IH came up not-likely-scum. This is not enough reason to be that confident of someone's scumminess that you are shocked when they come up town.

I'm just getting a really bad vibe off of you, not to mention- you're still alive.

[The Fonz]

24 hrs without post-

mass prod?

[The Fonz]

@Battle Mage-can you confirm or deny theodor's story?

How could BM do that? By saying 'No, I died?'

[The Fonz]

I suppose, thinking about it, there are certain things he could say... cue BM.

[The Fonz]

Did you yourself hear the cackle or see the witch?

[The Fonz]

I do.

[The Fonz]

Theo's claim seems awfully opportunist to me. I've never seen a hider who's able to survive hiding with scum- it seems like by suggesting he doesn't know whether that's possible, he's hedging against BM being opposing scum.

I think a PBuG replacement might be necessary.

If we massclaim, I'm happy to go first.

[The Fonz]

Meh. I thought someone with information setting the order might hint at what they know, to the scum.

[The Fonz]

I think it's unlikely that scum would get a role that gives the the names of one opposing scum and all the power roles who perform an action on a given night, personally. That's just TOO bastard-modded.

[The Fonz]

I'd rather we waited to hear from everyone on whether a MC is a good idea at all.

[The Fonz]

I'm kinda ambivalent right now, having been for previously, but I certainly wouldn't oppose it. Do want a PBuG replacement first, mind.

[The Fonz]

Vote Battle Mage

It's kinda essential to a massclaim that no-one comment on anyone else's claim, until everyone has claimed.

[The Fonz]

Found that PM yet Battle Mage?

Does anyone think we particularly need his flavour, or can we move on and come back to it?

[The Fonz]

18 not voting? Nice typo.

[The Fonz]

Who's next?

[The Fonz]

*Sigh*

I guess we're to take that as a replacement request, then?

[The Fonz]

Yeah, Phoebus appears to have disappeared too. Duckburg was supposed to restart a week ago.

[The Fonz]

I'd rather we had a Fuldu claim now, actually.

[The Fonz]

I suspect him more.

[The Fonz]

Or is it that you simply would rather we skip Lowell?

No.

Maybe Fonz needs more time to think of one. This won't be the first time he's ignored an "inconvenient" question.

I'm still curious to what Lowell's suspicious hunch of The Fonz is based on.

No I haven't. Also, you have been proven a liar, I was right about N9V, and about the colour coding. Frankly, your attacks on me have zero credibility.

[The Fonz]

I didn't say 'bypass his turn' I just wanted Fuldu before Lowell. What possible reason can there be to want X to go before Y other than you believe X is more likely to be scum? It's a mass claim, it's not like if Lowell had anything on me (he doesn't) I'd get out of it being revealed by Fuldu claiming first.

[The Fonz]

Akbar, no offence, but your continued bullshit insinuations are REALLY pissing me off.

[The Fonz]

I know it's a game. But that's no reason not to act with the slightest modicum of decency, respect, or indeed logic.

[The Fonz]

You profess suspicion of Fuldu, yet attack me for it when Kison asks if Lowell should claim next, and I express a preference for a Fuldu claim due to my suspicion of him?

If you hadn't claimed doc, I'd be CERTAIN you were scum by now.

[The Fonz]

Yes. Mine is actually logical, yours is terrible.

[The Fonz]

I dislike modkills, however, they may become necessary. I think we can hold off a while longer and hope we get some replacements, but do what you think needs to be done. :-/

Anyhow, Fuldu has claimed. Lowell is MIA as well as Raffles.

I think we should just skip ahead to The Fonz, then. Any protests, Mr Fonz?

None whatsoever, I've been straining at the leash to do so.

ESE Member, mason.

[The Fonz]

Can we finish the massclaim before we lynch anyone, please!

[The Fonz]

That's true. Anyone else out night two didn't NK, so it's very likely they did what they said they did. Though seriously:

A cop
A doc
a vig
and one three-man and one two man mason group, the latter of which has an investigative ability too?

Plus the various iffy claims, some of which may be true.

[The Fonz]

I hadn't. I just figured the investigation was the more useful part.

Vote: Theo

[The Fonz]

Mod: Votecount please?

[The Fonz]

Apparently.

[The Fonz]

Why would he lie when it's verifiable?

[The Fonz]

BM, this kind of thing is exactly why some people don't like you. There's no need to go with the 'you might learn something' condescension towards a pretty decent mafia player in Thok.

2. Claimed masons my arse. Unless i'm missing something major here, we dont know whether ESE are protown or not. They could easily be a cult or a third scumgroup from where i am standing. Or, Fonz and Greg might not be ESE atall, and are simply claiming it because they think all ESE members are dead.

THINK! If

all

ESE members are dead, then why has only one person come up 'ESE member?' That makes no sense. No-one living has counterclaimed Greg and I, nor has anyone other than Al come up ESE. Therefore, the only logical conclusions are that either Al was the only member of the organisation, or Greg and I are telling the truth.

If we are a third scumgroup, we are one which hasn't attempted a kill in the entire game. Had we been a cult, either one or other of us would have died by now, attempting to recruit scum, or we'd have won by now. That's even before we get to the notion that a cult recruiter might be fairly likely to need to leave his house at night in order to recruit.

[The Fonz]

I'm pretty much a fan. From where I'm sitting, it can only go wrong if either you or Akbar are scum, and whilst the idea of Akbar as scumdoc has crossed my mind from time to time, but I just can't see him not killing PBuG if that were the case. You've been confirmed pretty much by REyo's breadcrumbing and N9V's account of how he was blocked, so i can't really see what could go wrong here- lynch BM, block Fuldu, if the game doesn't end, Raffles is scum too.

Vote: BM

[The Fonz]

Oh, also on Fuldu, kinda preaching to the choir, but:

Since Flay has also been shown innocent, that hardly seems the best source of her certainty.

Of course, given what we now know, it appears the wagon was both on scum AND scum-driven.

[The Fonz]

And now you suspect Thok out of nowhere? Seriously, BM, you've suspected everyone now except Raffles, who is the

one

player I'd actually expect you to want dead if you were town (or lone scum).

The only scenario that makes sense here is a BM-Raffles wolfgroup.

[The Fonz]

But we already have three dead mafiosi. A five-man scumgroup seems unlikely, because that would mean at least three wolves (I can't see 5 v 3 scumgroups) which, with confirmed innocents, means that you and Raffles would STILL be scum.

[The Fonz]

Aaaand... there's the big red thing.

[The Fonz]

DGB could have been a wolf cop.

[The Fonz]

\If you merely skimmed the game, it is possible you

didn't

know Thok would RB you.

[The Fonz]

Esoteric society of erotica.

[The Fonz]

Thok's claim is imho stronger than Akbar's.

Also, how do you square your suspicion of ThAdmiral with his dead partner declaring that they knew one another to be innocent?

[The Fonz]

Kison didn't actually say that the two witches knew each other alignments.

I'm pretty sure I asked the Witch sisters that specific question at some point, and got an affirmative answer.

[The Fonz]

I can't buy Thok as wolf. I just can't. N9V basically confirmed the flavour with his 'drunk guy stumbled into me' statement after being RBed. Not 'a drunk, hairy creature with massive teeth stumbled into me.' Mafia-aligned was an outside possibility. Wolf is not.

[The Fonz]

@Tarhalindur
Is scumdoc even a real role? What would they protect against besides Vigilantes?

Anyhow, these are the people the witches said were out on night 2:
Night Two : ~N9V~, Akbar, bird1111, Mastermind of Sin, Shanba, Thok

Rival scumgroups?

Both scum groups had a person out: bird1111(Mafia) & Mastermind of Sin(Wolf)

That only proves that you did not kill that night, not that you are town-aligned. It is generally sensible for scumdocs to protect every night, in order to look like town docs.

That said, I think the most likely explanation is that the wolves were not

just

wolves- they had day jobs, and came up as those if they died during the day.

[The Fonz]

Um, multiple actions per night is not remotely unfair. Scum power roles are pretty darn common- and I'd say it were more likely there are, or at least were, some, in this game than your average game, given how much town power there is.

If every claimed power role is telling the truth, this game is ridiculously unbalanced in the town's favour.

[The Fonz]

I sort of like The Fonz's "Wolves have day jobs" argument, but in that case I find it more likely that mneme was a baker/wolf than Akbar being wolf. (mneme's role fits best with a day job/wolf theme: I find it hard to believe that a retired cop or a silversmith is a wolf, for example, and most of the other dead people have claimed power roles.)

That said, if Tarhalindur is lynched and the game isn't over and I'm not day-killed, I'll probably be blocking Akbar, as no other roleblock makes sense in that scenario.

Precisely. I'm not saying Akbar

is

scum- I think the balance of probabilities say he's not, and Tar is our last scumbag. I'm saying that if lynching Tar doesn't end the game, as I

know

Fritzler is town, I would lynch Akbar over Thok or ThAdmiral.

Will vote Tar, pending votecount.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Tarhalindur

[The Fonz]

Hmmm. We

could

be in LyLo, though it's doubtful. I have a hard time seeing two of the three non-masons as scum.

Thok's claimed power is a more common scum one, but we have the issue of Reyo's breadcrumbing and N9V to deal with. (Though, Thok, would you be so kind as to inform us of your thought process in blocking a claimed cop?)

Akbar, though, seems entirely plausible as scum to this point.

[The Fonz]

Actually, I've changed my mind a bit. Here's a few thoughts.

1. There's a fairly compelling reason why I can't be part of a two person scum team (it's not 100% foolproof, but it's there. This reason also applies to me in particular.)

This is true. A two-person wolfgroup including Thok either blocks Akbar (if ThAdmiral is the buddy) or faces no threat of a doc protect, so kills last night and wins. Hence, I really don't think Thok is the play- since if he's scum, he is lone scum, so there will be a tomorrow regardless.

2. If people are going to be suggesting that Akbar is scum, I'd actually like to hear reasons for it. I will not accept "Akbar plays by gut/doesn't seem to use logic" as a reason, as I feel that's an Akbar playstyle-tell and not a sign of whether or not he is scummy. I also don't feel "Akbar was suspicious of the ESE" is a good reason either, as I feel that there was decent reason for the non-masons to be suspicious of the ESE.

Well, on playstyle, it's mostly that Akbar made downright untrue statements (Al was confirmed scum, Flay confirmed town) and accused me of being scummy for pointing out the truth. But the case on him is far more process of elimination. We have confirmation that Thok and ThAdmiral are drunk guy and witch, respectively. We know only that Akbar has been seen out (in particular, on one specific night where someone else did the wolfkill).

3. I've been neglegent with this, but I'd like to hear first names from the ESE members and ThAdmiral.

We don't have them.


quote="Akbar"]Flay told me aside from Thok's block, I saw a witch fly overhead and land near the houses of ThAdmiral, Fritzler & Fonz.[/quote]

The Fonz/Fritzler have claimed mod confirmed innocence, so either both of them are scum or neither is scum.

Correct.

The masons aren't totally cleared (they may have chosen to get a daykill today to get around the outside chance of me roleblocking them last night). On the flip side, I'm not sure we can beat the masons if they are scum and have a daykill today, and they likely would have daykilled me yesterday for the win if they could have.

We should seriously consider the idea of ThAdmiral being lone wolf. That has the best answer to "Why would the wolves try to kill Lowell" of any of the reasonable scum scenarios, and also has the best answer to "How the heck is a mass tracking mason pair balanced?".

Disagree. 'There is no town doc' is an equally likely explanation for 'how is a mass tracking mason/inventor pair balanced?' If between them they constitute most of the town's power, can only protect

or/i] investigate, and cannot self-protect, whilst the wolves have an occasional daykill and a scumdoc, that's not hugely unbalanced.

Given that the wolves killed days two and five, today would be a logical day for them to have another (intervals increasing by one day each time).

It's a fair point that the mod saw fit to not confirm the witches to one another, whilst doing so for us. However, I'm not sure how being a witch is compatible with being a wolf- it wouldn't seem to be great flavour to have a wolf flying a broom. Also, Akbar's 'What? That seems incredibly unlikely' reaction to the suggestion of scumdoc suggested a guilty conscience to me.

[The Fonz]

The Fonz: Please stop attacking Akbar based on the fact that he didn't know your role PM day 2 or 3. Would you consider it fair if I attacked people for thinking the roleblocker was likely scum Day 4?

This is a complete misrep. I'm not attacking him FOR NOT KNOWING ESE WAS MASON. He attacked me for even considering the possibility. That's scummy. He used distortions (Al= confirmed scum, Flay= confirmed town) to support his position. There were plenty of people who didn't know my PM, no-one else acted that way, and that is because it was an utterly unreasonable way to act. He also outright lied about his role. There was a night when he didn't 'protect.' He claimed he was mod-forbidden to reveal why. This is seriously suspect.

Akbar being scum has serious problems with it.

So does you being scum, and ThAdmiral being scum. Considerably greater problems than Akbar being scum, in fact.

1. Why didn't he kill PBug ever, despite knowing about him since day 2?
2. Why did he kill Lowell, who was in the pool of "likely unconfirmed", and who's role power was mostly irrelevent to a scum who could daykill, when such a death could lead to him being tracked?

1. WIFOM. So that he could make that precise argument. Also, PBuG giving Akbar the object indicates that PBuG was of the opinion Akbar is town. You don't tend to kill your allies. Once PBuG fullclaimed, it became necessary not to kill him to keep the doc claim believable.
2. We'd massclaimed by that point. We knew there wasn't a tracker. If you mean ThAdmiral, Akbar had a pretext for being out anyway. Also, an item night was fairly likely anyway, considering how many power roles had been outed the night before.

Thok, do you not find it strange at all that a

claimed doctor

has lived this long?

[The Fonz]

Evidently not, since you seem to strongly prefer the ThAdmiral lynch. Besides, only scum push the easy lynch over the right lynch, so that's a loaded question.

I have far more reason to believe ThAdmiral town.

[The Fonz]

Not since that first time, when I came up with the XReyoX link. Since no-one else has come up wolf since, i'm not sure what the benefit would be.

And it hasn't been 'Follow the Thok.' You give yourself too much credit for the plan of lynching unconfirmed, which I think a small child could have come up with. I've been making plain 'Battle Mage, then Tar, then if game not over Akbar' has been my plan for a very long time.

I have a hard time believing ThAdmiral to be scum when he's been seen out on his broom by several people, some of whom are presumably not scum. Witch and Wolf also seem incompatible from a flavour standpoint. I very much came into today thinking 'it has to be Akbar or Thok.'

[The Fonz]

The only thing I've lied about involved hiding my Doc role until Pbug panicked and thought I was trying to hurt him. But, someone who can twist the phrase “4 or so” to mean 3 or less can pretty much label anything a lie.

Sure enough, I got attacked. Unfortunately it was by our Vigilante. I illustrated the details of the attack for anyone to reference. The key point being attacked at home.

I have no night action.

Now, this seems pretty obviously a lie to me.

I guess anyone who can see 'ESE member' as 'confirmed scum' and 'Gardener at the Estate' as 'confirmed town' can twist pretty much anything, though.

Claiming that few others had the same suspicions of you just because they didn't join the argument doesn't account for much considering the majority of our players were either inactive town or
lurking scum.

That they didn't suspect me isn't the point. That they didn't make scummy arguments and blatant misrepresentations

is

.

[The Fonz]

Oh, before I forget:

Thok, on Night 5 you claim to have received an item, which presumably could only have come from ThAdmiral. Someone was eaten that night. Since I find it hard to believe the mafia are cannibals, that means a wolf kill was performed by someone else that night, unless ThAdmiral gets to kill and use his witch abilities on the same night, which seems hugely unbalanced.

[The Fonz]

Which night are we talking about?

And I thought one nightaction per person per night was, like, a cardinal rule of mafia.

I'm also far from sure we

are

talking about a two-person scumgroup.

[The Fonz]

Which night are we talking about?

The only night we've had a wolf kill (Lowell) since MOS died is also a night when ThAdmiral gave out items rather than use his broom.

Don't see the relevance here. I see no reason to think that night was a particularly bad one to choose to use items rather than broom. Indeed, I'd see that as evidence for the defence- it would have been possible for ThAdmiral to kill and claim to have used the broom, since a claimed action of 'flew, saw Akbar and Thok' would have left us none the wiser as to which of the three was the killer- whilst him giving out the item is confirmable by you.

And I thought one nightaction per person per night was, like, a cardinal rule of mafia.

Um, no. It depends on the mod (I've run a game where all players had three night actions per player, but I wouldn't consider that evidence about this game.) That said, I've just looked over a bunch of Phoebus's large theme games [Norse Myth, Roahl Dahl, Seville Symposium, and Asterix], and he does tend to limit players to one night action per player. He also tends to have multiple mason groups. So this is a point in favor of your arguments.

Does he have a history of using scum masons?

I'm also far from sure we

are

talking about a two-person scumgroup.

If there is a 3 person wolf group (more would mean the wolves should have won today), then it has 2 people living (or something crazy about some of the dead people being not revealled as wolves). We've also mostly agreed that the only viable 2 person scum groups are the masons or Akbar/ThAdmiral, and in either case arguing over lynching Akbar versus ThAdmiral is silly.

Dayjob theory. Also, I fail to see how the masons are a viable scumgroup- Al4x, killed at night, came up ESE member... hence there must be other ESE members, whilst MoS came up lyncanthrope. If ESE= wolf, why did MoS come up lycanthrope?

What do you think about Lowell not knowing about the Cat in a Wicker basket? Or is that mostly irrelevant?

Irrelevant, since the gift-giving has been confirmed by you and Akbar, and I don't think you two can be buddies.

[The Fonz]

Really like to hear ThAdmiral's thoughts.

[The Fonz]

If you feel I'm suspicious for not having been killed night 5 onward, feh. But we've only had one kill since night 5, and assuming that Setael was the last mafia, the mafia haven't had chance to kill since then (since I was blocking Setael night 5 and night 6).

This is a good point.

In that case I'm leaning towards akbar.

Basically, as far as I'm concerned, Thok is basically confirmed by Reyo's breadcrumbs, and N9V (who died at night) claiming to have been RBed because 'a drunk guy stumbled into him.' You have also been seen out on your broom, and are therefore definitely a witch. We have no such knowledge about Kakeng.

[The Fonz]

Vote: Kakeng

Deeply annoyed at the lack of contribution of the only two people i think could be scum.

[The Fonz]

ThAdmiral. I can see a very outside possibility of him being scum, whilst I can't see THokscum at all, and Fritzler is mod-confirmed innocent to me.

[The Fonz]

Money-mouth time then, Thok?

Or is there something specific about which you'd like to hear from Kakeng?

[The Fonz]

ThAdmiral, since you're here now, care to vote or at least state a firm opinion?

[The Fonz]

Geez, no need to be pissy, you could just have said 'the latter'.

[The Fonz]

Mod: can we get a prod on Fritzler too?

[The Fonz]

Mod: can we get a prod on Fritzler too?

holler at yo boy

Sup. Can ah git a Kakeng vote?

[The Fonz]

AS far as I can tell, the mafia had no powers at all, except for the GF's immunity to cops (who could only find mafia anyway). Whereas all wolves had investigation immunity, both had powers, albeit only one per night could use them, plus recruitment abilities and ready-made safeclaims. I take the point that the town was overpowered (and it was- I'd thought the game reasonably balanced when it seemed to me that Akbar had been wolf-doc all along) but I think that the wolves were only at a disadvantage relative to the town, not the mafia. Mind you, a four-man wolf group, all with ready-made safeclaims, and no ability to investigate- that would have been a devil to stop. So the wolves here were quite a swingy factor.

[The Fonz]

Or an ESE, which is also possible... mod-confirmed innocent scum mason???

[The Fonz]

Not that much of an off-chance. Assuming no masons died day one, the wolves' chance of hitting one with their first recruit attempt was one in six. Given random lynches and nightkills, I think your chance of recruiting at least one mason were somewhere around 1/4, and that's massively high for something as unbalancing as mod-confirmed innocent scum mason would be.

Half of the players who were target-eligible (ie, not wolves to start with) were recruitable and non-vanilla.

[The Fonz]

EBWOP: And non-vanilla in a good way, ie, excluding the miller.

[The Fonz]

Yup. And

I

told

you

that our plan would result in a town win, and it did.

[The Fonz]

Hey, just realised, this is actually the first time I've EVER been alive at the end of a game as town, outside the RTR.

[The Fonz]

Were you a miller?

[The Fonz]

So was N9V insane then?

[The Fonz]

Ed: No, he couldn't have been insane, since Raffles wasn't scum. IH must have been a miller and not known it.

[The Fonz]

SOMETHING has to explain a genuine cop getting a guilty on a town player.