Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[Shanba]

/in dude!

Lemme read the thread, hough I was following most of day 1 so it shouldn't take too long

[Shanba]

Aright. My thoughts and stuff on various people/stuff that has caught my eye.

Reyo's town. I'm almost certain of that. Looks very town to me. The early day 1 wagon on him was tosh, but then it was mostly a random wagon. Still, Kison has picked up scummy points for his reaction to it.

Battle Mage feels off to me. Most games I've seen him in (as pro-town) he's got an idea in his head and run with it bullheaded through any walls like common sense or proof that he's wrong that might stand in his way. This game he's much more opportunistic and widening his horizons, which is something I want to watch.

DGB is scummy and needs to contribute.

MoS is not scummy, and DGB's case is rubbish, frankly. Raffles is scummy, but I have a horrible gut feeling he's town.

Scarecrow is so scummy it's not funny. Seriously, look at his posts in isolation, he's not just lurking but casually agreeing with people while trying to avoid garnering any sort of attention. I can't wait to grill his replacement (though Remus wasn't much better, to be honest XD)

Akbar is pretty scummy. Needs to be watched, as is flying under the radar somewhat.
I also don't get how after his long post the conclusion he came to was a DGB vote. He presented in my opinion interesting cases on a couple of the others yet failed to even FoS them for it and also when discussing Scarecrow he provides little analysis but calls him a serial Killer then fails to follow through with a vote or a FoS. Note also early fishing for Reyo's role.

Fuldu has struck me as fairly pro-town, yet there is a connection between him and Reyo which is slightly worrying. If I'm wrong about one of them and they are scum I want to take a good look at the other too.

We need cattle prods of various people, namely wizardcat and ~N9V~, just to pick a couple of severe offenders off the top of my head.

To summarise:

Vote: Scarecrow, Heavy FoS: Akbar, FoS: DGB, IGMEOY: BM

Phew. Also I would note that I don't believe any of this night scene speculation is particularly helpful, and in fact distracting to the oal at hand, namely lynching scum.

Anything else you think I should look at/give my thoughts about/address then let me know.

[Shanba]

I found Shanba's post quite perplexing, in that it is laden with self-contradictions, unexplained accusations. So many "scummy" players, so few reasons.

Right, first off, while there are unexplained accusations, this is because it was more of a first impressions post. Also, the players who I failed to give reasons about were players who I was not focusing too much on and was basically agreeing with what other people had said about them. If I have nothing to add, why should I make up reasons to add? I shouldn't, as that's unproductive and harmful to the town. That being said, there are no self-contradictions in there. I'm sure of that point.

Reyo's town. I'm almost certain of that. Looks very town to me.

Only scum is that certain someone is town.

No. Only scum

knows

someone is town. It's a subtle but important difference. My conclusion is drawn from his posts: he seems active and engaged, and reacting in such a way that feel spro-town. From a player who was floundering somewhat at the start of day 1, I don't believe he can have suddenly become fantastic scum who could deceive to that extent. His posts look, smell and feel town. Even that aforementioned day 1 floundering looked town to me. So I am almost certain he is town

Battle Mage feels off to me.

Is he, really?

Now honestly, if you're going to accuse me of not giving reasons for my accusations, don't ignore the ones I did give reasons for. I explained what felt off about him in my post.

DGB is scummy and needs to contribute.

I am contributing. Don't just say I am scummy. You have to give reasons. Otherwise, you look like a scumbag trying to spread suspicion around to confuse the town.

You were contributing? Don't make me laugh. By the 20th April, you had 5 posts, mostly agreeing with other players. By contrast, ~N9V~ had 9 and Wizardcat had also 5. Wizardcat and ~N9V are among the worst of the lurkers. Kison had 50. Yes, you were failing to contribute.
To be honest, I didn't really look you over too much when I first posted. A bad feeling about your posts and your poor case on MoS was enough for the FoS. However, since I looked over your posts to show the complete lack of contribution, a few other things did indeed catch my eye.
First, your very first post in the game is an opportunistic bandwagon hop. You state the obvious about reyo, I.E that he's new and without giving a reason (huh, what a coincidence) hop on the Kison bandwagon.
Your very next post you jump on the new OtU bandwagon, using a disingenuous "agreed" in order to avoid responsibility for the vote. You then call my predecessor town for a reason I frankly don't understand before continuing on your spree of agreeing with people and pointing out the obvious.

MoS is not scummy, and DGB's case is rubbish, frankly.

That's a pretty "definitive" statement, isn't it? It's getter curiouser and curiouser. MoS is not even a little bit scummy for his alarmed reaction to my "rubbish" case?

This is linked to the scummy things you have done part of this post. First off, you say you like Flay's case against Raffles but at the same time you like raffles defence and even though you think Raffles is probably town you agree with what Flay has said and will keep your eye on Raffles for the rest of the game. That's an exaggeration, to be sure, but it's the gist of what you were saying. It's phrased in such a roundabout way with contradictions and leaving yourself with backdoors in just about every direction should you be pressured about it later.
Next you call Reyo townie. I will note here that there is no reason for this, while I agree with you and I see the obvious pro-town vibes you are talking about I am flabbergasted that you would try and call me out on the same thing a few posts later. I don't think what you said is scummy in and of itself but the hypocrisy certainly is.
Your post against MoS

is

rubbish. I stand by this. For one, you are fairly doubtful of Raffles townieness yourself. For another, I cannot see how MoS was hounding Reyo. Then when MoS turns around to try and defend himself from this, you simply call him overdefensive. It's a catch 22 situation, and not a pro-town attitude from you. As your first post of content this game, I am unimpressed.

Raffles is scummy, but I have a horrible gut feeling he's town.

Again. You can't just declare someone is scummy, without spelling out the reason. How did you come to this conclusion? Where does the "gut feeling" come from? Why is that gut feeling "horrible?"

Right. First off, why Raffles is scummy has been gone over by various players enough times that repeating it would be like flogging a dead horse. However, that being said, something about his play strikes me as town. I don't know what it is, which is what makes it a gut feeling. My mind is telling me otherwise, which is what makes it horrible.
However. Look at this particular paragraph from your seventh post (the MoS case):

Flay is definitely on to something with Raffles, very very clever, but somehow, Rafffles' defense sounds sincere. I am inclined to believe him at the moment, but I will keep a close look at him for the remainder of the game, because Flay's argument is a good one, and cannot be easily dismissed in my mind.

What makes my position on Raffles that much scummier from your similar one? More hypocrisy.

Akbar is pretty scummy.

Sheesh, another scummy player? Though I agree with your reasoning on this one, your multiple-pronged attack on so many players still is quite strange.

Yes. I have attacked a lot of players. THere's 30 pages of stuff and a lot of scummy things said during that time. Plus, with 2 scum groups, we have a lot of scum. I don't see your point here.

Fuldu has struck me as fairly pro-town, yet there is a connection between him and Reyo which is slightly worrying.

More scum? Ugh? You're worried about an association that involves a player you believe is pro-town?

Yup. Note that I don't actually call Fuldu scummy in this post, so that's a misrepresentation. However, his connection to Reyo is there, and though It think both of them are town, I have been wrong before and if I am wrong then that connection should not be ignored.

I'm glad I had the opportunity to look over your posts DGB. Much more staisfying to lay into someone actively scummy than passively scummy.

Unvote: Scarecrow, Vote: DGB

Scarecrow can wait till later.

[Shanba]

Shanba's accussation is weakly supported. most of them are" he looks scummy. Yes, he does look very scummy. full stop."
*snip*
I don't see my connection with fuldu either. mind pointing out?

However I agree with shanba that DGB is not contributing much. Shanba has missed that people like wizardcat/n9v aren't also talking much. Surely if he is picking on lurky people, they would have fallen into this catergory as well.

Right. I've adressed your first point in my reply to DGB. The second point I can go and hunt down the posts for you, but I don't think it's a particularly fruitful activity at this point in time. It's mostly on Fuldu's side though.

As for the fact that wizardcat and ~N9V~ are lurking and I didn't put them on my list. This is because I was not actually particularly interested in the lurking side of things. More the fact that I found her scummy.

[Shanba]

Wooh! Thanks Pheobus.

[Shanba]

uh... I blame the elves
>.>

[Shanba]

MoS: No, I am not Akbar, and I find your assumption that I would cheat in that way offensive, frankly. (I like your new avatar though.)

Akbar: If I understand you correctly, the gist of your argument is that after having lost Music of Capcom due to voting you the last day I would be less certain about my scumhunting skills and thus my certainty about certain things in my introductory post must mean I have prior knowledge (ie scum). Correct me if I've misunderstood.

Right. Actually because I second guessed myself on the last day that I ended up losing: Primate had been my pick at the beginning of the day. If anything, that game would only serve therefore to do the opposite: that is, be less willing to second guess myself (and thus more certain of my thoughts).

Mr. Flay: The game had been going for about 30 pages when I made my post. In said post, I accused 5 people of being scummy and said there was a link between two others. Over the course of the game, you have accused about the same amount of people. The only difference is that not having had 30 pages to do it in, I had to compress my accusations into one post. Also, with two scum groups, there's probably quite a lot of scum left out there. And though I accept players find me scummy because of my predecessor, there's not a whole lot I can do about that.

[Shanba]

Oh right. I'm sorry, but the post above mine I did not see while writing that post.

[Shanba]

DGB seems to be defending everyone under scurtiny (except me) but I'm not sure what to make of that.

Something's just clicked: Albert B. Rampage is scarecrow. Suddenly his question as to why I suspect him makes sense. Although, I do believe he was one of the ones I gave my reasons for in the post.

Flay, I understand your reasons for suspecting Akbar, and for the most part I gree with them: especially considering his attack on me was OMGUS in that I had FoSsed him in my opening post. However, are your suspicions of me simply based on the I don't like Shanba's opening post thing? Or is there more to it?

[Shanba]

hrm... I've been more satisfied with DGB's recent posts, and I get the feeling she's getting into the game. I'm willing to move back to my original suspect now.

unvote Vote Albert B. Rampage

[Shanba]

mneme's entrance obviously didn't have a lot of impact on me.

[Shanba]

I know I havent contributed spectacularly. I don't think self-analysis is useful.

[Shanba]

Hrmm... If you really want me to, I can analyse my posts. I don't think it's a particularly helpful exercise though.

Ok. My first post. I've picked up a lot of flak for this one. All I will say is I wanted to get down my thoughts about certain players. It was more a statement of my positions on reading the thread. In fact, if you look through the games I've replaced into I have made a similar in post in most of them.

I think that I over-reacted to your criticism of my post, as I no longer find it scummy. After that I gave a couple of posts of substance, but I've been mostly on the back foot this game which is a new experience for me. I believe I have contributed, but since May my contributions have been lacking and I will try and remedy that. Possibly now I've got a few things out of the way in consulmaker I can put some effort into some long analysis here.

[Shanba]

uh, just one thing I would say is that I am indeed male... >.<

Anyway, I will lay out my case for Scarecrow/albert/mneme.

Good point. I'll take advantage of your point to cover up the fact that I'm been lazy about looking for scum and

unvote: Kison

vote: Raffles

Good Point.

I agree with you there.

Agreeing with people is the only thing Scarecrow did all game. Lurking is one thing, lurking then popping up to agree with someone is quite another. He has voted for three people: Kison for no reason then because he has an ugly avatar (random vote), Raffles because Flay said so and then because he thought he was scummy on a read through and OTU for no stated reason. I find this sort of lurking much more suspicious than simply being inactive for long periods of time.

Albert's only post was to ask for a reason why I suspected him, yet I had posted this in my opening post:

Scarecrow is so scummy it's not funny. Seriously, look at his posts in isolation, he's not just lurking but casually agreeing with people while trying to avoid garnering any sort of attention. I can't wait to grill his replacement (though Remus wasn't much better, to be honest XD)

My reasons are explicit: his lurking tempered with casually agreeing with people while trying to fly under the radar.

mneme has managed to since replacing hop onto the largest bandwagon and agree with everyone else who finds me suspicious. I can see no trace of an independent thought process there. (oh, and in case my vote didn't count because I voted for his predecessor,

Vote: mneme

[Shanba]

mneme: me calling you scum has nothing to do with whether or not scarecrow is a "lousy" player. It's more that he's horribly scummy. Did you read my post?

[Shanba]

mneme: the few posts he did make are scummy. Any player can say more than "I agree with you". It stinks of scum trying to fit in.

[Shanba]

I think it's still possible that there are only two scum groups, but I will say again that I don't think this speculation is helpful now. Especially when we're finally getting somewhere with the whole scumhunting thing.

I want to say that the only thing making me uncomfortable about my vote on mneme currently is having dgb on the wagon with me. I reckon both of the are scum, from rival groups.

[Shanba]

Scums have an pretty much assured win with deadline.

Explain this.

[Shanba]

It's hardly a guaranteed scum win if there's one deadline.

[Shanba]

Perhaps I ought to be a bit more clear: I still think Raffles is likely town, but that comment struck me the wrong way and I would like a clarification.

[Shanba]

regardless, it sounds like a genuine reaction. I'd be happy with a mneme, Akbar or DGB lynch at this point (though happiest with a mneme lynch)

[Shanba]

As getting the lynch I want on mneme seems unlikely at thi point, how much support is there for a lynch on DGB?

unvote Vote: DGB

[Shanba]

urgh... the vibes I'm getting from DGB now are all over the place. I really can't tell if she's town or scum.

unvote vote: mneme

. I think I need more time to make up my mind about her.

[Shanba]

Hmmm... now that's interesting. There are four (the battle mage wagon consists of lurker votes left on him) competing wagons being pushed currently.
[Wild speculation]
I reckon two of the people being pushed for lynch currently are from two seperate scumgroups. I reckon that two of the new wagons therefore are supposed to be counterwagons and have lots of scum on them. If I had to guess which were the scum being wagoned and which were the ounterwagons currently... I'd guess that mneme and DGB were the scum and that Mr. Flay and DGB are the counterwagons. Yah.
[/Wild speculation]
but that's just a theory at this point. I'd love to see how true it is later though

[Shanba]

Both Reyo: DGB is scum from one group and the other group is using her as a counterwagon

DGB: There's a reason I put wild speculation tags around that little theory . I believe I have been fairly explicit in why I believe mneme is scum. For more info see my posts 2, 10, 13, 14 and 15.

[Shanba]

To be honest, I could go either way on Flay being scum. I hadn't really read his posts particularly well, and looking back he never really makes a case against Raffles, simply posts an analysis of yesterdays lynch, pulls the three votes he thinks are scummiest then eventually votes Raffles because "he doth protest too much". His lurking now despite activity elsewhere is scummy.

Regardless, though, he isn't my top pick for today.

[Shanba]

Shamba's targeting of me isn't scummy -- it's not a correct conclusion, but Albert and Scarecrow were pretty useless. Mind, we've had worse than useless.

Shamba, if you think DGB is scum, and that scum is using her as a counter-wagon (er, from who? Me? Raffles? Flay?), why not vote her? Wouldn't that give useful info?

Good point. Though, from my perspective, it works either way. Hmm.

Shamba, my first post was a bandwagon jump onto someone scummy-looking (one I gave reasons for later, after I'd reread and could articulate my reasons). Wouldn't it have been more scummy if I'd waited a few days before posting, or posted something useless and tried to blend in? I'd rather bandwagon, truly. And yes, I think bandwagoning is (absent other info) pro-town, just as avoiding jumping onto bandwagons and being stingy with your vote is anti-town. OTOH, I like lots of bandwagons and analysis often being about the bandwagoning more than about what people say (not that that isn't also useful) or don't say -- votes are riskier for scum than speech; this, OTOH, is a very talky game.

That's fair enough, I guess. It's a playstyle thing.[/quote]
I think it's obvious that there's a third scum group because we've got a dead apparent-scum who is neither Mafia nor Werewolves, and Daddy and Mommy and Baby makes three. That said, while I think killing,killing,recruiting (ie, two "mafias" and a cult) is the most likely scum configuration, I don't think we have enough info to draw any conclusions -- one night simply has too much variance. And, of course, there could be a SK in there too; yeah, that would mean a missed or skipped kill, but again, drawing too many conclusions from a single night is risky.
[/quote] See, what bugs me is 2 scum groups and a cult would lead to a dangerously unpredictable game thats almist impossible to balance. Not to mention we'd be dealing with an enormous emount of scum. Finally, it would mean that cult had to recruit alex that night: there haven't been any other nights. The name screams Mafia to me. But the kill method doesnt fit wolves. Geh.

Shamba, if I am scum, any thoughts on who I could be scum with? (Assuming you're not assuming SK).
I can think of a few people who would be on my list were I analyzing things from across the table (mostly people I haven't interacted with much), but not that many.

Hmm... I haven't really thought about that. I could see you as scum with Flay, but I'm not sure who else at this juncture. I'll have to look back and see later.

[Shanba]

Re Shamba: Er. I was directly responding to his questions. Thus I named him. If someone else posted stuff about me that needed defense, I'd probably name them too. Shamba hasn't, however, done anything I've found all that scummy -- his attack on me was pretty well put together and pro-town. (So was yours.)

This wasnt the impression I was getting from your earlier posts, but I can't see anything that shows this so I'll let it be.

[Shanba]

unvote Vote: DGB

[Shanba]

Interesting. You've got it all worked out, don't you? I look forward to making you eat your words.

Yes, tonight in fact, right? That's what you'd like to say. At least when my corpse is examined tomorrow, it will show how Shanba showed up and went straight after a townie when no suspicion was on me. Flay's support of Shanba's attack was noted, though I'm not convinced he's scum yet.

@SV Hate to see ya leave, your one of the few people I trusted around here.

Bwuh...? Attacking people who are not at all suspected is suspicious now? This is one of the worse arguments I've heard today.

[Shanba]

you may note the broken quote tags. I've no idea where your name came from though... This is what I get for not previewing.

[Shanba]

OK. Something very strange is going on. It looks like mneme was town, which is nice to know, as it allows me o see things with somewhat greater clarity.

However, something happened to me last night which makes me

Vote: Akbar

. I want to see if he can explain it first, so I'm not giving away what it is yet.

[Shanba]

Shanba voting akbar means it is possible that he is the mafia-finding cop. Revealing a lot of town power-role to the scums is not a very good move at the moment I believe.

I'd rather you not speculate about that.

@shanba, why are you happy to know that nmeme is town, not scum?

It clears the air. Thinking mneme was scum clouded my perception, I can go into today with a fresher view and hopefully find some scum.

[Shanba]

It could be a delayed kill. I don't get the silence a the end of the day though.

[Shanba]

I would prefer Akbar respond to me before we lynch today.

[Shanba]

Alright, I may as well come out about it.

I have very little on you. Yes, I attacked you last night. I received an odd message that told me that when I attacked you a witch flew by on a broomstick and when I attacked yo you were supernaturally strong (leading me to think you were anti-town). When I got this, coupled with my earlier suspicions of you, I thought I could do a little bluffing to see hoy you'd react: if you'd done something stupid like claimed miller or something I would have known you were scum and would hae had you pegged. I don't think it was a particularly good play in retrospect (especially with an actual cop coming out >.<), but what's done is done.

I actually was running through scenarios in my head where I could only mill one type of scum, but your explanation fits what happened to me last night.

The killing of Alexz could have fitted the flavour of my role so I asked if my predecessor had killed that night and apprently he hadnt. Which was one of the reasons I was trying to discourage speculation on the nightkill until I discovered that they werent down to me. With that out of the way, knowing I am a pro-town killing faction and seeing that the kill does not fit with Werewolves makes me believe there are at least three anti-town fctions. Whether it's wolves-mafia(ESE)-SK or wolves-mafia-cult(ESE) or something else I couldn't guess.

So yeah. I'll hold off hammering for now to give everyone else time to respond but

unvote Akbar

. The way he's handled this has basically cleared him in my eyes.

[Shanba]

No, what I was saying is I could see myself killing like that: I'm not sure what my kill type is currently but I could ask. I may as well full-claim now anyway.

I am indeed a vig, I'm the village strongman. That's all the flavour I got, but I could see a strongman strangling someone to death and that's why I added that bit yo my post.

[Shanba]

I suppose that's all you have to add?

[Shanba]

Heh.

Apologies DGB.

[Shanba]

Also, I'd hate to think what would happen if the wolves recruited the vig, which seems to have been possible.

[Shanba]

There's also the bonus of recruiting mechanics in limited reveal setups - that is, you don't know about them until it's too late. Here, if everyone else hadn't been confirmed, that could have won Akbar the game.