Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!
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The funny thing about this is, if putting an early or late vote on someone is scummy, why would town want to do it? And if the middle is the most protown place, and therefore the most likely place for scum, what's to prevent scum from WIFOMing back into the beginning and end of the wagon?Raffles wrote:Mr. Flay, I've answered both of your questions. I'm not trying to avoid anything. :/
I take it you acknowledged the answer to question 1
Answer to question 2:
Raffles wrote: Probably the most crucial. 6 (or 4) scums do not know who each other are. They know their scum buddies, but they have no knowleddge of the other group. This makes it far more likely that a scum is going to turn up and push the wagon, especially if it is half way through (i.e. false sense of security that it would be okay to vote since it is not putting Reyo on lynch -1 or 2 or whatever).
Looking back, I concede that these takes a fair amount of assumption. But I do honestly believe that a scum would prefer this timing rather than beginning or the end. For that reason.Raffles wrote: It's simple, it's a halfway house. In a big game like this, if someone has got half the vote required then the person's orbiting on event horizon. Not many would question a possibility of lynch of someone who has built that many votes. This creates an ideal situation for scum who hasn't voted on that person yet. The lynchee has clearly done something questionable so placing a vote wouldn't look suspicious, but it's not placing the person on lynch -1 or 2. A safe vote.Permanent V/LA.-
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Erm, what!?XReyoX wrote:the "Uncle" should be someone al4 was expecting. No clue about whether he one who has killed him was the person he wanted to meet tho. I believe that he was targetted for the NK. The chance of both NK failing on the first day is very small.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncle
Read the second listed definition. It's quite obvious that that's how it was used in this death scene.Permanent V/LA.-
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Raffles wrote:I'm not particularly reading that deep into the night scene. I've been told it's dangerous to do so. Strangle? Uncle? Naaah.
As far as I see, there's a group called ESE. One of it's members had been NKed. There was only one nightkill. I'm using these three solid facts as a basis of my investigation.
I don't know what colour cults turn up in. Does anyone actually know? I've been looking around and there's not a single game where it's colour coded and there is a cult. This is probably the last piece of information I could get to determine if ESE is a scum or (still) could be a scum.
If he's a scum, he was very likely killed by canine group. And role block/doc prevented the mafia kill. If he's a cult, then he could have been killed by either canine or mafioso, and the other group has been blocked of NK by some way. That's how I see it.Vote: Raffles
Whoever said it first was right. When I first read this post, my thought was "he doth protest too much".
Wolves do not strangle, the mod would not put information THAT misleading in the nightscene. Even if it wouldn't be as blatant as having his throat ripped out, our mod is clever enough to find a way to differentiate between the deaths.Permanent V/LA.-
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BM, insane can apply to just about any role. An insane doc can kill instead of protect, an insane roleblocker might accidentally block someone else, etc. There are all sorts of ways to implement it. I think it might have more to do with the flavor of his role, making me believe him to be more likely as cult. I still don't believe he was a wolf, it just doesn't fit.Permanent V/LA.-
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There used to be a wiki article explaining it, but i can't find it. Bah.Raffles wrote:I protest too too much? I'm not sure I understand. Does that mean I should ignore and lurk? Or I should put aside what I think and just go with the flow? I don't like either of the option.
As previously explained, you don't seem to want people to investigate the night scene too closely. There is something to be said for taking it with a grain of salt, and many of the theories are pretty bad, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't explore the possibilities. I agree with the theory that you are probably ESE and want people to assume that ESE is mafia instead of some third scum group we have to worry about.
Everyone needs to remember that just because this is Mafia VS Wolves doesn't mean that we are limited to two scum groups...Permanent V/LA.-
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If you looked in the Theme Park for more than 2 seconds, you'd see a thread labelled "WoT Mafia" I abbreviated it to make it easier for you to find the thread... -_-Raffles wrote:I don't know what WoT stand for, but I'll take your word for it. I can imagine how analyzing night actions for that one would be a right mess though.Permanent V/LA.-
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My theory suggests that you are an ESE member, not a scumbuddy. You're making shit up in a bad attempt to discredit the points against you. GG, yo.Raffles wrote:No. There is another way I could have known, and that is because surprise surprise, our rather hated retired cop isdead! Deader than a dodo. MoS's theory suggests that I'm a scumbuddy. But the lynch result provesthere is no scum to be buddied with!
Besides, even if it looks bad, my assumption was right. Another point for gut, nothing for logic.Permanent V/LA.-
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See: Committee Mafia. Night 4, five killing groups, 1 nightkill. You lose.Raffles wrote:Fine. It might have been a bad decision. But what you said proves nothing in terms of my alignment. I can't be seen as scummy through what you said, since OTU didn't turn out to be a scum.
And MoS, you seem to be unable to point out the obvious for a last couple of pages. Shall I tell you why ESE is unlikely to be the 3rd scum group? Same reason al4xz is unlikely to be a cult. Two failed mafia kills in a night.Permanent V/LA.-
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ESE = cult. Jeez, didn't we already cover this? Please work on your reading retention.
No, I'm not going to speculate onwhythere was a missed kill. That would be stupid, because there are far too many factors that we don't know about, including roleblockers, doctors, redirectors, kill overlaps, and other mechanics that we may not have seen before or considered.Permanent V/LA.-
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Once again you are trying to use results to justify a previous action. Logic doesn't work that way. The only way you could've known that he wasn't scumRaffles wrote: Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.
It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.beforehe was lynched was to be scum yourself, as BM pointed out. He gave off every indication of a scum who felt pressured and gave up, disappearing from the thread. There was no indication that he could be town, certainly not enough to justify this "gut" of yours.Permanent V/LA.-
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red = antitown. cult = antitown. 'nuff said.
There isn't difinitive proof that there is a cult, but there also is no reason to assume that there isn't. The fact that you are so hellbent on dismissing the possibility altogether onlyreinforcesthis, further supporting the theory that there is a cult.Permanent V/LA.-
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They can be, but they don't have to be.Raffles wrote:
MoS, who says cult can't be different colour?Zindaras wrote:What I find more interesting than the target of the kill is the target's role and the amount of kills we've seen. ESE Member can really be anything. The fact that he came up red implicates scum. I'd say that Cult would be purple...that's the Cult's colour (or, well, it's what I think the Cult's colour is...). He can't be SK, because a Member implies that there are other people in this ESE-crap. So my guess would be that he's Mafia, because Werewolves aren't, well, human, and al4xz was. So he'd be the Werewolves' kill, and the Mafia's probably failed.Permanent V/LA.-
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armlx != this game's mod. All you've done is shown that a mod once gave the cult a different color. That doesn't mean anything, especially since we don't know what color the mod is giving "regular" scum, or if he's even using different colors. For example, when I mod a game, blue usually means protown, red means antitown, and green means neutral. Cults are not neutral, so dead cults would be red in any game I modded.Raffles wrote:
THANK YOU! Cult theory suck my credentials.XReyoX wrote:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3189Raffles wrote: Has anyone played in a game where there is a cult and the alignments colour coded?
scum = red. cult=greenPermanent V/LA.-
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what is with you and your obssession of colors? Color codingRaffles wrote:
No, I'm getting irate because everyone is getting me wrong. Including you. I would have hammered him. But due to my schedule (believe it or not, MS is not the first priority in my life) I could not place hammer on OTU, so told someone else to do it to ensure that D1 didn't end in no lynch.Mr. Flay wrote:Raffles, it's not so much that you weren't sure OTU wasn't scum as that youstill wanted him lynched by somebody(but not you) despite that doubt. I think you're panicking today, which makes me think we're right. This is orthagonal to the ESE/Mafia/Cult discussion, which is highly speculative, except for the part where you've opposed vehemently the possibility until now.
I've opposed the idea because for now until someone tells me the colour of the cult, it is more plausible to think that ESE is a mafia. I've repeatedly asked someone to give me the colour. If the colour of cult is red, only then the theory of cult is just as likely as theory of mafia. This is why I stuck with mafia theory.rarelyhas any significance to the game, other than a convenient distinction between protown and antitown. Without further evidence, the color coding means nothing to us, except that we know he was scum.Permanent V/LA.-
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No, because you're trying to quote past games to prove to me that something istrue. I'm quoting past games to prove that your assertion that something can't/won't happen in a game isfalse. Since not all mods do things the same way, past games can't be used to predict what the mod will and will not do (except sometimes past games by the same mod). However, they can be used to show what ispossible, because saying something is possible is not asserting that ithasto be true in that particular case, just merely stating that you can't rule it out without specific evidence pointing to the contrary.Permanent V/LA.-
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Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time. His actions before he disappeared are what made him seem more like newbie scum than newbie town. Everything pointedRaffles wrote:
That's rubbish. A pressured scum gives up? I can understand a pressured townie giving up. How could you know that he wasMastermind of Sin wrote:
Once again you are trying to use results to justify a previous action. Logic doesn't work that way. The only way you could've known that he wasn't scumRaffles wrote: Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.
It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.beforehe was lynched was to be scum yourself, as BM pointed out. He gave off every indication of a scum who felt pressured and gave up, disappearing from the thread. There was no indication that he could be town, certainly not enough to justify this "gut" of yours.scumthat gave up? There is certainly no "overwhelming" evidence to justify that he was a scum. A scum giving up makes much less sense. Given a townie or scum, townie is much more likely to give up in face of death due to their lack of powers.
The only way I could've known - yea right. Did I ever say this? "I definitely knew for sure that OTU wasn't a scum. Try this.I didn't know. But I had a bad feeling about it. Okay?in favorof him being scum, with what little evidence there was. We could not besurethat he was scum, but there was no reason to suddenly get a "feeling" that he was protown.Permanent V/LA.-
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I was busy with RL and inactive at the time, in nearly all my games. I could barely keep up with the thread, much less point out everything and explain it for you.Raffles wrote:
But you see - I'm not even going to pretend I knew this. I didn't. So this factor was not in my calculation. And even then, why? If someone gave me this as a reason for lynching a newb scum, I would never go with it.Mastermind of Sin wrote: Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time.
And why didn't you mention it on D1, if this was a tell?
By "little evidence", I was referring to the fact that it was Day 1, and there is rarely much evidence to lynch someone. However, the evidence against him was better than anything else I had seen presented, and I didn't see anyone else scummier at the time.
So why did such a little evidence gather so many votes? Make up your mind, was he very scummy? Or not very? And if the latter, why did you not try to dissuade others from the deadline before it was in place?MoS wrote:His actions before he disappeared are what made him seem more like newbie scum than newbie town. Everything pointedin favorof him being scum, with what little evidence there was.
stalling votes != protown player. What could possibly convince you that stalling votes means he's protown? The uninformed majority suddenly gets told that he's not scum? Or did the informed minority (scum) suddenly decide that they didn't want to lynch a protown player?
There was for me and that was stalling votes. We must have completed this cycle a few times now.MoS wrote: We could not besurethat he was scum, but there was no reason to suddenly get a "feeling" that he was protown.Permanent V/LA.-
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That's a valid strategy later in the game, but not as important early in the game. Also, it would require al4 to be experienced enough to think of something like that. I've never heard of the guy before, so I don't think he's that experienced. I wouldn't bet on him having thought about it.XReyoX wrote:Just another thought. A cult wouldn't want to lynch the town because it means they would have less chance to win because a) fewer people to recruit, b) more chance for the leader to hit a scum and die). However, al4 looks quite opportunistic to lynch OTU. This doesn't agree with the theory that al4 is a cult.
I'm not sure if this is right.Permanent V/LA.-
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If I knew why this happened, I would have a Professor Mafia award for writing some sort of dissertation on why newbies do what they do. I just know that it's a common pattern to look for in newbies. Having not done something like that before myself, I wouldn't know why they do it. Perhaps they just can't think of anything good to say to defend themselves.Raffles wrote:
Unanswered question bolded.Mastermind of Sin wrote:
*snip*Raffles wrote:
But you see - I'm not even going to pretend I knew this. I didn't. So this factor was not in my calculation.Mastermind of Sin wrote: Newbie players are quite likely to give up as scum and stop posting under pressure. Happens all the time.And even then, why?If someone gave me this as a reason for lynching a newb scum, I would never go with it.*snip*
Lost steam? Wtf?
Actually there were few other very decent alternatives, including me. Except you've seem to have lost steam in pursuing me for reasons unfounded. And I think Akbar mentioned something about kison + remus. So I call bullshit on that. This put together with your policy of lynching rather than replace those who lost interest in the game, I find inconsistency.MoS wrote: By "little evidence", I was referring to the fact that it was Day 1, and there is rarely much evidence to lynch someone. However, the evidence against him was better than anything else I had seen presented, and I didn't see anyone else scummier at the time.
I don't have a policy of lynching rather than replacing those who disappear. However, the last part of the day was during a busy time in RL, and I was barely around in the thread. I knew he was lurking somewhat, but the last time I'd been truly active in the thread he was at least posting every once in a while, so I couldn't ask for his replacement.
And if he was protown, why had he not been lynched yet? No one was speaking out
In reverse chronogical order:MoS wrote: stalling votes != protown player. What could possibly convince you that stalling votes means he's protown? The uninformed majority suddenly gets told that he's not scum? Or did the informed minority (scum) suddenly decide that they didn't want to lynch a protown player?Raffles wrote:Well wouldn't you think that if there really was a convincing case against him, he would have been lynched already, no? I looked back andwhilst there was no convincing case that he is a town, there was not very much for scum either.I decided at the time that he didn't warrant a lynch. Hence I unvoted. We lynched more because of the deadline rather than a case against him. Don't kid yourself of that.againstthe lynch (at least not as far as I noticed), so why didn't the scum just off him?
Now you're just twistingRaffles wrote:OTU on verge of lynch for very long time.
Maybe he is not worth the lynch?
When did IRaffles wrote:I unvoted because of the following:
He was teeteering on lynch -2/1 for a very long time.
----> A sign that he was not worth the lynch?
----------> If he is not worth the lynch, why do I still have my vote on him?
He was disinterested in the game even near the lynch.
----> Cannot be bothered to stay in game? A boring role maybe?
All these gives me a bad gut feeling that OTU is a townie about to be lynched.
So I investigate further...
True there wasn't much to suggest he was a town in his post. But then there wasn't much to suggest he is a scum from his post, apart from his opportunistic vote.
----> Not particularly a strong reason as I first thought it might be.
--------> Then I shouldn't have my vote on him. Unvoteeversay "I am convinced that OTU is town"? Look at the first quote. You aren't even bothering to twist my words anymore, you are stating the opposite to suit your argument.Vote: MoS. Either that or someone is having a reading retention problems. Ironic.mywords, hypocrit. I'm really tired of your semantic games, they aren't getting us anywhere. Whether or not you thought he was protown or just thought he wasn't scum, that doesn't matter. What does matter is that you are claiming that the circumstances surrounding his wagon convinced you that he wasnota good lynch for the day, when by most logic it should've done the opposite. I'm not buying it.
Because if there is some consistency for colour coding, then it would shed us light on what ESE could be. There’s consistent colour coding for scum, for townie, why shouldn’t there be one for the cult?MoS wrote: what is with you and your obssession of colors? Color coding rarely has any significance to the game, other than a convenient distinction between protown and antitown. Without further evidence, the color coding means nothing to us, except that we know he was scum.
And how do you expect to find out if there is a color coding consistency until more than one scum is dead? Something like that has no bearing on today, because we don't have enough information to make a reasonable assumption based on coloring. There is no good reason for you to have been that concerned about color right now.
What? How do your actions on day 1 have any basis in my theory that you are an ESE member? Your day 1 actions merely strength my suspicion that you are scum. Your repeated denial of any possiblity of there being a cult is what makes me think you are an ESE member. This has been said multiple times before, so you should start paying more attention, please.Raffles wrote:
Wrong. See Mafia vs. Wolves Redux. N1. You lose.Mos wrote:Actually, a stalling wagon is usually the sign of a scumbuddy that their partners don't want to throw under the bus, so assuming that lack of lynch = town was either bad reasoning on your part, or a bad attempt to deceive us by making shit up to cover your tracks.
It was not a bad reasoning, it was a good gut. And what's all this about making shit up to cover my tracks? You are leaving me confused in wake here.
I'm thinking this is where the jumped conclusion (or so it appears to me) that I'm an ESE member. But I'm not getting how it works. Shed any light please?
Unanswered question bolded.Raffles wrote:You still have to explain to me your warped theory.Permanent V/LA.-
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The town as a whole is still a thread to the cult. The scum kills townies for them at night. Since the cult is usually the smallest group to start with, they have the least chance of getting hit by a nightkill. Therefore, near the beginning of the game, it's nice to keep some scum around to nightkill townies and power roles. Otherwise, the scum die off too early and the town realizes there is a cult and starts searching for them. One of the main advantages of a cult is the element of surprise, although it looks like you lost it this game.Permanent V/LA.-
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WTF, DGB? How am I "hounding" XReyoX? I haven't even said that I think he's scummy! In fact, Reyo and I have been having a rather mild conversation, so I'm having trouble seeing how you think I'm going after him...I'd like you to try and explain that to me, please.
Also, why am I suddenly scummy just because I was away when the game restarted after the crash? That's pretty much what you are suggesting, DGB, since the only reason this is "Flay's argument" is that he got to it first. I've done more than my share in providing my own reasoning, so it's not like I'm just jumping on the bandwagon. I think you need to reevaluate your logic there, DGB.Permanent V/LA.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Of course it doesn't hurt for them to try if their life is on the line. I know that, you know that. That's because we actually know what we are doing. However, I have seen people literally say that they can't think of any way to defend themselves when they get attacked, so they just go for the turtle-shell approach and hope it'll go away. Obviously, it's not a good strategy. That's why only the newbies actually use it, because they haven't realized what to do, yet.Raffles wrote:
So there is no reasonable explanation - then I hope you don't take it hard on yourself when I say I don't buy it.Mastermind of Sin wrote:*snip-snip*
If I knew why this happened, I would have a Professor Mafia award for writing some sort of dissertation on why newbies do what they do. I just know that it's a common pattern to look for in newbies. Having not done something like that before myself, I wouldn't know why they do it. Perhaps they just can't think of anything good to say to defend themselves.
(BTW the suggestion you given there is crap - a scum, newbie or not, it doesn't hurt for them to try if their life is on the line)
Were you scummy for most of Day 1? That seems to be what you're implying. It's not about going after an active/inactive target. I don't factor activity into deciding whether or not to go after someone. If they seem scummy, I'll go after them. OTU seemed scummy, and his lurking reinforced this. I saw no one as a better choice for Day 1.
That was miswording on my part - sorry about that. It is meant to read "you have a policy of replacing those lost interest rather than lynching". Still you had the opportunity to ask replace when he dissapeared after repeated requests for a claim. Why did you go for OTU rather than active targets, like me?MoS wrote:Lost steam? Wtf?
I don't have a policy of lynching rather than replacing those who disappear. However, the last part of the day was during a busy time in RL, and I was barely around in the thread. I knew he was lurking somewhat, but the last time I'd been truly active in the thread he was at least posting every once in a while, so I couldn't ask for his replacement.
You didn't read far enough. In fact, if you look just a few centimeters down, you'll find that you quoted the "evidence" you're asking me for. Fancy that, I actually explained myself in the same post that I made a statement? Who would've thought?
I'm not sure I understand. Without evidence, sounds like you are firing blank rounds.MoS wrote:*snippy-di-snip*
Now you're just twistingmywords, hypocrit. I'm really tired of your semantic games, they aren't getting us anywhere.
Are you
That makes the two of us then (referring to the beginning).MoS wrote: Whether or not you thought he was protown or just thought he wasn't scum, that doesn't matter. What does matter is that you are claiming that the circumstances surrounding his wagon convinced you that he wasnota good lynch for the day, when by most logic it should've done the opposite. I'm not buying it.
Okay... what are you suggesting? Let's see... the red colour might be a mason? Oh and let's make the scum blue. And werewolves green. In fact, why not make the protagonist group red? (Except I know this doesn't work because OTU was black). So could red be something neutral? I can go on forever making stuff up with colours if there are 0 conformity.MoS wrote: And how do you expect to find out if there is a color coding consistency until more than one scum is dead? Something like that has no bearing on today, because we don't have enough information to make a reasonable assumption based on coloring. There is no good reason for you to have been that concerned about color right now.tryingto make it look like you have an IQ of 50, or is it natural?
Wow, you sure are thickheaded. How many repititions does it take to get it through your head that Cult = scum? Scum != mafia in particular. Scum is a generic word for any antitown role. Hence, calling you scum meant that the evidence pointed to you being antitown. Calling you Cult means that further evidence has narrowed you down to not only being scum, but being cult, specifically.
So which one am I? Cult? Scum? Which do you think is ESE? You know it's kinda hard to defend myself when I don't know what I am being accused for.MoS wrote: What? How do your actions on day 1 have any basis in my theory that you are an ESE member? Your day 1 actions merely strength my suspicion that you are scum. Your repeated denial of any possiblity of there being a cult is what makes me think you are an ESE member. This has been said multiple times before, so you should start paying more attention, please.Permanent V/LA.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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- Joined: October 30, 2004
- Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter
Reyo, town power roles such as vigs and cops can skew the game in the town's favor when it's just town vs cult. Like I said, lynching mafia is still generally preferrable, but it's not something that cults usually have to worry about early in the game. There is a fine line between lynching the mafia quickly enough and getting rid of themtooearly, which puts things in the town's advantage. Either way, though, I have to agree with other people that talking about optimal cult strategy is probably not a good idea right now. There's no need to coach them any more than you have already.Permanent V/LA.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Nope, but if you leave things to fester, even baseless arguments such as yours can become a bandwagon. I asked Mr. Flay and Reyo what they thought because they are some of the few people that are actually posting right now. Since they hadn't commented on you yet, I asked for their opinion. I'm not sure if you're scum or not right now, but if Raffles is scum, that's definitely a point in favor of you being scum as well.Permanent V/LA.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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You haven't played with me much if you think I just ignore baseless arguments against me. Nice try, though.DrippingGoofball wrote:
There was one post against you (mine) and one vote against you (mine). If my argument is baseless, what are the chances that it swells into a full-blown bandwagon? Pretty remote, don't you think? So I have to wonder about the over-reaction. You really took me aback. Like, whoa! Did I touch a raw nerve? A scummy raw nerve?Mastermind of Sin wrote:Nope, but if you leave things to fester, even baseless arguments such as yours can become a bandwagon.Permanent V/LA.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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I'm hardly alarmed. Taken aback is more like it. I'm completely taken aback that someone could possibly believe the arguments you posted against me, being that they are indeed rubbish. It seems to be a trend in all my games right now.DrippingGoofball wrote:
That's a pretty "definitive" statement, isn't it? It's getter curiouser and curiouser. MoS is not even a little bit scummy for his alarmed reaction to my "rubbish" case?Shanba wrote:MoS is not scummy, and DGB's case is rubbish, frankly.Permanent V/LA.-
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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- Joined: October 30, 2004
- Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
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- Posts: 15163
- Joined: October 30, 2004
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Mastermind of Sin Cassandra Complex
- Cassandra Complex
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- Posts: 15163
- Joined: October 30, 2004
- Location: Sleeping with the Godfather's Daughter