Xenoblade Mafia (Game Over)

[BROseidon]

Also I find using meta to justify the likelihood of a miller fakeclaim frankly stupid.

Why is this stupid? If it's generally true that miller claims on day one are legit, then we should not lynch Sven, right?

[quote="In =
Cabd's town as fuck, GiF is town as fuck, you're town as fuck, I can't lynch buldey on Day 1 because he is so great but ffery's posts will tell me their alignment.
MS is a boring vote.

Why are Cadb and GiF town as fuck, and what does a "boring" vote even mean?

I'll buy Sven's miller claim for now. The miller claim early is super risky for scum, and for the miller it's a reasonable choice to make (I've day one claimed miller on the other site where I play, and it's standard there for millers to claim day one there). I don't think the fact that Nacho and Orc were so aggressive in questioning the claim makes them either town or scum (on the other site where I play it tends to be both that attack D1 miller claims), but I like the way in which both of them did it. Thinking both are town. Unsure about the rest.

Don't agree with 76 though. I don't think that everyone who chimed in on the miller claim is auto-town, and now that that post has been made it is definitely not an assumption we can make.

[BROseidon]

It's stupid because "oh because he doesn't have a meta of fake claiming miller so this miller claim must be real!" makes a surprising amount of nonsense. Sven's meta wrt miller claims shouldn't be considered when evaluating it.

What are your opinions on cabd and GiF?

Do you have a scumread?

While it may be dumb to bring in Sven's meta if he doesn't have one, I don't think it's dumb to bring in a broader sense of meta. If it is generally more true one way or the other that a miller claim on day one is legit or is scum, I think that that is valid to bring up.

I'm null on both of them. I don't like what cadb has posted in 76 because I don't see any town motivation behind it, but I don't see scum motivation to posting that, either. Just seems like a dumb thing to post. GiF hasn't posted anything to make me think one way or the other.

Right now I don't have a scumread. Everyone walked away from the miller claim looking null or town.

[BROseidon]

God dammit I have a super busy day and I end up 20 pages behind. First, specifics:

No but actually, why the vote, just because he only posted a few times then went raido silent?

Indeed, why him specifically and not any of the other players who jumped in early and then disappeared.

Look at the timing of these posts.
All in about 15m he goes from "having a Skype meeting" to "reinforcing he's in a meeting" "meeting ended".
I point this out because
a) why is he posting in a meeting
b) they're all in very close proximity.

Good point. Attention to detail makes me think Andy is town.

...WHY WOULD YOU CLAIM THAT
WHY, AS TOWN, WOULD YOU CLAIM THE OTHER PART OF YOUR ROLE THIS EARLY

I agree with Nacho- I expected a bit more out of Sven than "hi I have three votes and am now claiming more of my role while it is both unnecessary and uncalled for". As scum there is no motivation to do this.
As scum the only reason for doing this is to claim to stay alive but there REALLY isn't this much pressure on his this early.

This. If Svenkst is scum, I will be shocked.

Oh, that's what I did in a different game. Don't worry so much about that, Orcinus. I'll be playing pretty regular town today with a bit of sleuthing if I find time for it.

...This in no way contradicts your entrance into the game.

@GIF: I know it's okay to link, I'm just saying that I don't like meta. How a player was/what their role was in another game shouldn't be a defense for them in this game.
Their play should be a defense for them in this game.

No. Most players have consistent patterns in how they play town or scum, and it is valid to use knowledge of how other people tend to play different roles to get reads on them. It would be stupid not to.

Varsoon is town too.

Why. You said you are good at reading him, so I would like your reasoning here.

253 is a really strong argument.

358 going to cover this entire engagement in a paragraph.

Varsoon isn't scum.

Yay, another person who can tell me why he's town. Oh, Beauty and the Beast agrees. I'm not seeing it.

GiF needs to post MORE

Why?

Rach wins worst comment for suggesting ANYONE needs to post more.

There are plenty of us who need to post more. There are players who still have 0 for content.

For some reason I feel like I'm invisible every time I'm playing mafia. :T
What do?

What is the point of posting this?

I'd prefer to leave other games out of the discussion of this game because people should be judged solely on their performance in this game to find their alignment in -this- game.
You mentioned not liking meta-defenses earlier, I figure you'd actually understand where I'm coming from with this.

Dat misrep. He was referring specifically to not liking meta defenses on meta that doesn't exist in response to a point I had made about Sven's claim. Here:

It's stupid because "oh because he doesn't have a meta of fake claiming miller so this miller claim must be real!" makes a surprising amount of nonsense. Sven's meta wrt miller claims shouldn't be considered when evaluating it.

Oh, and meta is still a useful tool. You're opposition to it is baffling and seems scum-motivated. Scum start out with more information than town, town should be using every tool available to level the playing field. Meta analysis of players is one of those tools.

and they calll me a spammer

VOTE: ghostlin

Care to explain? Cite specific evidence, not just his entire corpus. I don't see the scumminess in there.

[BROseidon]

Woot, now for more generalities:

Still like Sven/Nacho/Orc for town. Also liking Andy and B&B a lot. Liking, but less so, Rach and Freezer.

Really not liking Varsoon, especially after the last few pages and with the "we shouldn't use meta" thing. That combined with the WIFOM at the start, makes me really want to know why the people who townread him did so, and what they think of him now?

Also not a fan of TD for reasons that have been stated already, but also kind of iffy on AJ for tunneling TD so hard. Both are scummy, but they probs aren't scum together. AJ, do you have thoughts about the rest of what has been going on?

Think that 2 is likely scum. Nacho is reading super townie and I trust his read on ffery, especially when my gut is giving me the same thing after reading the whole thing. Ffery cracked pretty fucking hard.

Also not a fan of what TMT and dntfuckingcare have done. They have multiple posts with very little to no content. Everyone else is 50 shades of null.

Oh, yeah, VOTE: TD. Think this is the best wagon to jump on right now.

Pedit: Orc, that comment about meta was directed at Varsoon. Formatting ambiguity on my part, oh well. It's 5am and this has taken me three hours. Oh, and there is your opinion on Mollie vs ffery. Yeah, ffery is probs scum. Will parse specifics if I need to post-sleep.

[BROseidon]

@BRO: And a good scum player would deliberately play against/manipulate and be aware of his own meta. Meta allows weak players to stay weak, and strong players to manipulate them. It's not a very good approach. There's nothing I can do to stop you from using meta evidence in a case for or against me. I, however, won't rely on it as the foundation for any of my cases.

You don't seem to understand how incredibly difficult this is, especially with people who've you played with enough. It's not so much about appearing "scum" as much as it is appearing "not town" to people who are very, very familiar with how you tend to play. Even if you change styles fairly radically between games, there is still probably a thread of something that exists between all of your games that those who know you best can pick up on and call out when it isn't there.

The people who are townreading me hard right now (namely, GIF and Nacho) have been in games with me before, and understand what my town game is like. They've probably lurked my other games, but I don't wanna flatter myself too much.

Wait a minute... See why meta is a useful thing now that you're using it?

varsoon seems town to me

Could you explain this? I'm not seeing it.

re varsoon, compared to the borkgame he seems a lot more way out there. he tunnele us/selkies pretty hard on day 1 of that game. His "case" (hesitate to use the term) on you is bizarre, but reading through it, I don't think he's taking himself seriously so I'm not sure what the point is.

Do you see more town or scum motivations in his "case" and in his "not taking himself seriously?" What is your read?

[BROseidon]

Also, GiF, looking forward to you posting why you've had a change of heart on Varsoon.

[BROseidon]

Varsoon is under plenty of pressure right now. Want to make sure pressure stays on TD.

[BROseidon]

Aj, why the town reads on Andy and GiF? You don't mention them at all in your post.

[BROseidon]

Pedit: Not really no he isn't

Which wagon push do you think would yield more results?

Eh, Varsoon is here, TD isn't.

VOTE: Varsoon

Still want TD under pressure for when he gets back, though.

[BROseidon]

@BRO: I already said I'm keeping the reasons to myself regarding Varsoon for now.

I'm aware, but 755 implies to me that you'll give us reasons eventually. Is this not the case?

[BROseidon]

I actually thought Varsoon was in thread for some reason, probably because he's generally been more present in the thread and has posted more recently.

Still, I'm fine with my vote on Varsoon. I'd be fine with it in TD. I want both of them talking, since I find both of them scummy.

[BROseidon]

I think that the Varsoon wagon is useless because Varsoon is bleeding town everywhere he can manage.

Why?

[BROseidon]

Here it goes:

Buldermar and I had a chance to talk about varsoon, too. He agrees with me that the overnight walls don't look scum-motivated.

What sort of motivation to you see?

Varsoon makes eggo look like the inferior waffle brand.

Is he the best brand of waffle of all the brands of waffle in this game?

TMTOF ETCWTF

TMTOLBTWNTOF. They May Take Our Lives But They Will Never Take Our Freedom. There guys, now you know how to remember his name. Or we can all agree to call him letters.

Yeah, just realized john_h61 has yet to show up. Heh. 1,000+ posts for him to catch up with.

Why post this? All it does is add noise.

I find day 1 high noise generators are likely scum because they are happy posting in the thread faking activity and not trying to figure out who scum is.

Which players do you consider to be high noise generators right now?

active 4

Nacho/Orc/2/… There are a lot of people who could be the fourth that you are thinking of, see as only 3 players have particularly high post counts.

BRO is skeptical town.

What do you mean by “skeptical” here? Am I skeptical of other players? Are you skeptical of my towniness? Your terminology is strange here, and I would like that clarified.

fferyllt: now a more active poster than some players.

Why do you keep popping in to say shit like this while not actually contributing anything real?

But I'm slowly leaning town on him again.

Because?

Ghostlin is town.

Why?

I had a feeling that ghostlin is town and after reading his scumgame I still think he's town.
He's waaaaaaaaayyyyyy too polite in his scumgame.

A reason for me to think Ghostlin is town. Cool.

Gen thoughts:

Mac is now rubbing me the right way. Good questions, solid content. Town read.

Like Sajin’s posting, particularly 1006. Also leaning town on him.

Cadb and Rach are both adding noise without really contributing much. Slight scumreads for both.

Would call Ghost scum, but GiF provided a town argument that I really like (unconscious language patterns are pretty strong indicators imo), and Andy also seems super convinced.

AJ’s responses have gotten a bit better, but he’s not doing anything to suggest town to me. Null.

I like TD’s logic, and am willing to promote him to null as well.

That should cover everything new. Still like my vote on Varsoon, even more so now that TD has posted.

Oh, and continuations from my last post:

In post 174, Cabd wrote:
No but actually, why the vote, just because he only posted a few times then went raido silent?

Indeed, why him specifically and not any of the other players who jumped in early and then disappeared.

Still would like an answer to this.

In post 573, RachMarie wrote:
GiF needs to post MORE

Why?

What do you think of GiF’s posting now?

[BROseidon]

@Metal: Do you have any reason for your anything? You've posted 0 in the way of thoughts so far.

AJ, why are you so sure that it's fake? I think it's likely fake, but you are especially sure.

[BROseidon]

In post 1023, Varsoon wrote:
active 4


Nacho/Orc/2/… There are a lot of people who could be the fourth that you are thinking of, see as only 3 players have particularly high post counts.

While you're here, can I get an answer to this?

[BROseidon]

Either way, outing his own PR like that so early and using it to kill someone who's been confirmed town since post 1 is just lazy and not very town.

That's debatable. I still have my vote on you for a reason.

[BROseidon]

He's not but he needs to shut up

Unless he wants to humor me with his gambit so I can laugh at his idiocy

VOTE: Aj

What was the point of that, then?

Also, why the need to remind us that you're voting AJ? Pretty sure that's where your vote already was...

Pedit: Do you define activity by raw post count, or does how strong of an impression the posts leave also affect how active you perceive someone to be?

[BROseidon]

Why the change of heart, Orc? Also, @GiF:

In post 1108, GuyInFreezer wrote:
But I'm slowly leaning town on him again.

Because?

Could someone explain this to me? I still find him scummy.

[BROseidon]

I flipped my read on him because it looked like he was backing down too easily, his thought process looked offkey, and looked like he was distancing me. (Considering I can read him well.)

Turned out his "distancing" was just paranoia about me, and I could follow his thought process of his posts regarding his posts, and that's a good sign.

Offkey in what way, and how does you being able to follow his logic indicate that he is town? Is that a meta point, or do you generally consider people town if you understand their thought processes?

[BROseidon]

Cool, only like 4 pages to catch up on.

Sven replace doesn't affect my read on the slot. I had the slot as town before, and if people are bringing meta arguments with the replace to confirm this, then cool.

Does anyone here have meta on Jon? Does he tend to get notably more invested in games if he is town or scum?

I would like to hear ffery's case on AJ, especially given that in 1262 she didn't seem to have anything developed yet. Going to withhold commenting on either of these players until I hear the case.

@Ghost: Do you really find letters scummier than other players that you have scumreads on? Scummier than the other players who are currently under pressure? What is your current read on Varsoon?

GiF's explanation as to why Varsoon is probably town alleviates my worries about him. GiF is probably right and I need to develop better gut reactions to players who have that type of playstyle. Time to switch wagons.

Yeah post 1050 looked bad to me too, but I think mostly for different reasons.

- b

What reasons?

Going to UNVOTE: Varsoon for now, and I want to see responses to my questions as well as ffery's AJ case before placing my vote again.

[BROseidon]

Going to wait for reverend to post his thoughts but yeah.

That's pretty incriminating.

[BROseidon]

Will wait for him to post thoughts before making a call, though. Sven was coming off as very town to me.

[BROseidon]

Metal Sonic may be town. 1153.

What in 1153 makes you think MS is town?

[BROseidon]

K Metal. I would just like your reasons behind your reads once you've gotten through everything, since a few of your reads are divergent from mine, notably cabd and AJ. Maybe I'm missing something.

Still waiting on ffery's AJ case. I would really like to see that.

[BROseidon]

So if nobody displays any scummy behavior, your default on them is to describe them as null-town instead of just null?

What is your opinion of TD?

[BROseidon]

ftr, this is a list where we are in negotiation

lol

we are seeing different things

2/aj/andy/sven are on my list

So you see 2/aj/andy/rev as scum? What do you think of the other read your other half has?

Also, could you two sign your posts? I don't actually know which of you I'm addressing...

[BROseidon]

my other half needs flips for further analysis

I don't punctuate or capitalise much

my posts will prolly hurt your brain to some degree. majiffy's will not I don't think

so mollie here

@Jiffy What flips do you think would be most informative? Is there anything specific you are looking for in the flips?

Still would generally appreciate the signatures. I don't want to misunderstand either of you b/c of an accidental mixup of which head said what, and I don't have the experience to immediately connect a post to a player based on style yet.

[BROseidon]

6. Cabd
14. RachMarie
18. TiphaineDeath

Can you explain these three? They are all in the null to slightly scummy range for me.

[BROseidon]

This slip shows that he's at least looking, which I appreciate and get a townread from.

It's a HARSH fucking townslip, especially since we can waltz on over to Cabd's site whenever the hell we like and double check what he's talking about. He is town, town, town.

Okay, these are good arguments for town cabd.

Nacho can you explain your TD and Rach reads? Those are now the only two on your town list that I don't agree with.

[BROseidon]

Problems with TD, and maybe we should cut it down to our six strongest. There's almost certainly scum in a block that big

Is there a specific reason you’re choosing 6 here?

I know at least one of your scumreads is wrong because TMT has dropped at least 6 newscumtells.

What are these newscumtells he’s dropped?

1. ² (buldermar + fferyllt)
2. Aj The Epic
7. dntfkingcare
10. jon_h61
19. TMTOLBTWNTOF

Do you think that jon is scummy or is this because of his lack of contribution?

also I bet you that AJ wouldn't have tried to discredit me that hard unless my read on Andy was right

Why?

1723. Wow. I liked Nacho’s arguments for towncabd a lot

Nacho, do you still think cabd is town, even after reading Mac’s 1723? Also, what happened to Sajin in your reads? You have him as town in 585, but then in 1414 you have Ghost in your townblock with Sajin gone. You have me convinced on Rach, though, and I like your TDtown argument, although less so than your Rachtown one.

I’m down for a 2 lynch. I've thought she’s scum since her , and nothing that has happened since I first scumread her has made me want to change my read.

VOTE: 2

[BROseidon]

EBWOP:

I've thought she’s scum since her

Should read "I've though she was scum since her blowup with nacho and mollie."

[BROseidon]

And TMTOLBTWNTOF is still lurking around. I feel that this strategy is effective for him since no one pays any attention to him. Complete garbage posting and lurking off any attention.

What? Pretty sure everyone thinks letters is scum.

Stupid filler question. Is there a specific reason you think asking this question will give you information about anyones alignment? Looks like asking a question for the sake of asking a question.

Was wondering if there was a statistical/meta reason for choosing the number her chose. Still am curious.

Feeling good about cabdtown again.

Also, @AJ:

Town: 2, B&B, Nacho, BRO, Andrius, GIF

Scum: TD, prob-sven, lean varsoon, lesser lean orc.

We've got town here:

Bro, Andy, Sajin, GIF, Cabd, B&B, Nacho, Rach (In order of strength

Scum here:

TMT, Ghost, Mac (motive bad, reasoning good... light scum read), Metal sonic, dntfkingcare, possibly 2.

You don't seem to ever explain your initial 2 read, and you don't explain why you switch. Can you talk about this?

[BROseidon]

Bro, you skimming or scum? You missed a ton of points I expected you to find and hit recently. (This is what separates Andrius to Bro... Andrius is actually catching the main points).

I actually didn't want to bring this up since I'm not going V/LA, but I am in finals period (quarter system is the worst >.>). I'm reading/posting during my study/writing breaks, which makes it hard to keep up with this thread. I'm pointing out the bigger things I notice, and once summer starts I'll have the time to do rereads and start piecing things together.

[BROseidon]

@Broseidon: Where is TmT confirmed scum?

Everything you quoted me as saying was said by AJ.

[BROseidon]

So do you want to redirect that question to him or did you accidentally screw up the quotation while trying to ask me a real question. If it has to do with letters, here is what I actually said about him in that post:

And TMTOLBTWNTOF is still lurking around. I feel that this strategy is effective for him since no one pays any attention to him. Complete garbage posting and lurking off any attention.

What? Pretty sure everyone thinks letters is scum.

[BROseidon]

Lastly, his posts are interesting, to say the least. One more reason to keep him in the game.

How is this relevant?

My current scum read:Tiphaine Death.

You only have one?

Claiming vanillager is suspect at best, but I'm sure you do not do this every game(pulling this shit assumption out of my mouth, but yeah)

Why misrep his claim?

Also, the way 2 interacted with it, wanting me to use it on him, then calling me retarded once I revealed what I was up to--that's pretty town, too

Why is this town? Couldn't 2 have felt that this was manipulatable?

GUY IN A FREEZER, COME BACK TO US. YOUR INACTIVITY READS AS SCUMMY TO ME AND OTHERS AND I'D LIKE YOU TO GIVE MORE REASONS FOR EVERYONE TO CONFIRM YOUR ALIGNMENT

Why does it read as scummy that he's V/LA?

If it was rules legal, there's not really any way to manipulate it, as it's up to the rest of town to read the claims side-by-side and decide if the player being scrutinized had done anything to change what they'd been sent via PM instead of copy/pasting it.

Because someone couldn't just make something up...

Here's a link for nacho and GiF... http://www.forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopi ... 11&t=25954

One difference in particular I was looking for in varsoon's noob game was his reaction to town accusations.

Here's an example...

I don't blame you for thinking I'm scummy. I guess my noobishness is showing, I thought that encouraging people to chat a lot would be a good way to foster communication for town.

This is sincerity at its most blatant. I see none of that here. It took a long time for varsoon to acknowledge why he might appear scummy to people in this game. He has defended with insults and deflected with weak return attacks. This is in stark contrast to his attempts in his first game, where he defends with honesty and humility.

Varsoon is scum.

Good argument. Varsoon, can you respond to this?

it will be discussed in postgame.

Why not discuss it now?

Rach: is nearly impossible for me to read because of the trolling.

What do you mean by "trolling?"

Scum

AJ (hence my vote),

not as convinced that TD is a town read as say Nacho is, but ehh

Just two, one of which you are willing to defer on?

It's definitely something we should keep in mind. Scumhunting in multiball isn't so easy as "oh he looks like he's trying to discern alignments".

Agreed. It's important to keep in mind because if it's multiball we also have to try to discern scumteams with this in mind (ie, looking for two sets of three connections versus one set of 4 or 5 connections).

I don't think so. multi-ball has a distinct feel to it and this isn't it. if it is I would be surprised.

What is this distinct feel?

One quick general point:

I am a bit conflicted on Varsoon here. On the one hand, a lot of what he is doing is really dumb and doesn't have much scum motivation that I can think of. On the other hand, Rev's meta argument in 2130 is not a bad argument. That said, given that he's a newbie, it could just be that his playstyle has shifted a bit. I still think he's a bit more likely to be town than not, but this is now a fairly weak read for me.

[BROseidon]

Okay TD. I get what you're talking about, since I've commented on it too. I agree that it makes it hard to read her, especially since I have never played a game with her. That's why I'm okay going with the reads of the more experienced players (Nacho, Jiffy, etc), because they have the experience to get a read and all seem pretty confident.

[BROseidon]

This game does NOT contain any of the following: Cult, Lyncher, Unlyncher, Jester, Survivor, Wincon changes

We don't have a lyncher

[BROseidon]

Okay, digging through 2's posts:

Town: orcinus, nacho, B&B, BRO

Leaning town:
svenskt (for today - pretty sure this is my view only , not buldermar's)
Andreius
GiF (that was a weird thing about the chat game, though)
Cabd (in part based on nacho and to a lesser extent Rach)

Null/Town:
Rach (always and forever I swear)
Varsoon
Ghostlin (this read could slide)
Mac

Leaning Scum:
TD (buldermar's read mostly)
TMTwhatev
Maybe AJ

Not enough info to go on: Sajin, dntfkingcare, Metal Sonic, jon_h61

This is not a consensus list (yet anyway), but some of my views are influenced by buldermar's opinions.

Ffery's first list.

good to see you posting.

TD is a player that buldermar and I aren't agreeing on atm. Something would have to change my mind before we'd vote him today.

Interesting post.

B pushes for the "scum on Sven" wagon in 1139, which leads him to push TD b/c he has Cabd, GiF, and B&B as town.

I did some meta research on AJ yesterday, kinda prompted by Nacho. It looks like so far in this game he's pretty low volume compared to other games, but that could be due to the overall high volume of post in the game thread diluting his usual day 1 contribution.

His posts in the games I scanned looked strong - analytical, relevant to the lay of the game, engaged and interacting. that was strongly true as town, and not quite as strong as scum. He played a scary game as a 3rd party arsonist and won it at endgame. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=27065

I didn't find a smoking gun, which was a disappointment, but I don't know quite what I'm looking for this time.

- f

Yeah this feels contrived. Ffery doesn't even bother to discuss how scum AJ behaves, but just describes scum AJ as a weaker version of town AJ. She basically says, "Here is AJ's town game, and he seems pretty close to it this game" without providing what his scumgame is like. There is also a decent amount of fluff in the post (the stuff about playing a scary arsonist game)

Town:
Nacho
B & B
Orc
Sven
Maybe Vasoon

Scum:
At least one of {TD, GiF, Cabd}
Maybe TMTOL
Maybe AJ (based on f's opinion)

- b

Buldey's first reads.

VOTE: TMTOL

I talked to f and we both think TMTOL is scum.

- b

Letters slot is probably town. This is really early to bus, and both had pushed letterscum for a while.

This post was made 15 minutes after saying he'd catch up with the last 30 pages.

This doesn't look like a bus to me. It looks like scum jumping on something very obvious to try to push for anti-town behavior rather than scum-motivated behavior.

So, we're looking at:

TMT scum
Metal scum
TD scum (although he does look slightly better for pointing out Metal pretending to read stuff he couldn't possibly have read)
BRO likely scum

Did I forget someone?

- b

B updates his scumreads. TD vs MS seems to be town vs town at this point.

1943 is just more evidence that AJ is scum. Ffery's "case" doesn't build in any way, just providing analysis of individual posts, when the entire point of building a case like that is to determine a trajectory and look for overarching patterns.

Yeah, thinking Letters (or w/e the slot is called now), TD, and MS are all town. AJ seems like a very likely scumpartner. I'm having a rough time finding who the others would be from this, though.

[BROseidon]

holy fuck posts came in fast.

VOTE: AJ

[BROseidon]

Also Wayne/TMT can you sign your posts? I would like to be able to tell them apart, or at least give me a way of telling you two apart (along the lines of mollie's "I don't use capitalization")

[BROseidon]

Wait what's with the sudden AJ wagon?
Did I miss some important information?

Um...

Were you not here yesterday?

AJ is obvscum.

[BROseidon]

TD and MS can you two stop tunneling each other I'm pretty sure that neither of you are scum.

Agree with Orc about Sajin's reasoning. Yes, if we randomly pick a group of 11 players, there is probably at least one scum in that group. However, it seems like it would be more productive to do actual scumhunting. Do you have an actual case against any of myself, Varsoon, Venmar, or Sajin?

So guys if this is in fact multiball, why the hell would either scum shoot the miller, tracker claim or no? Isn't that better to leave to much later? I mean there's so many juicy obvtown targets and they chose the miller?

This seems like a bad question to ask.

So I think Rachmarie should be our lynch.
- Discuss.

Do you have a reason for this? Nacho gave a good argument for townRach.

Arthur can you say why you think Venmar is scum?

[BROseidon]

In fact, there's a 50/50 chance you're doing this on fucking purpose

Elaborate?

Still on VLA and holy shit three people killed during night?
We dropped like 4 town.

Okay I would be okay lynching this.

METAL SONIC'S ASKING ABOUT THE THREE KILLS AND STUFF, LIKELY BECAUSE HE'S SCUM, IS AWARE SCUM ONLY HAS TWO KILLS, AND WANTS TO FISH OUT THE VIGILANTE?
I DON'T KNOW.
MS, SPECULATION ON THE THREE KILLS WILL ONLY HELP SCUM.
I WANT TO KNOW WHY THE SLOTS THEMSELVES WARRANTED NKS/VIG SHOTS/SERIAL KILLINGS

This is really bad. Gloating+implying that he know scum only have 2 kills when scum may very well only have one kill because HOLY FUCK GUYS ONE OF THE GUYS WHO DIED IS A HIDER THIS SHOULDN'T BE THAT HARD. Now I want to lynch this.

Okay not liking Vars and Orc's case on MS makes sense. Need to see if that makes sense with 2-scum. Also realizing that my analysis yesterday about MS vs TD doesn't hold water if this is multiball or there is an SK.

@Andy you really don't understand my vote even though you claim to. Your not even reading the thread.

@Orc I completely agree with you on sonic scum. But we should lynch Rach today.

Why was my case derp. Don't discredit me Majiffy...

Also, I will be keeping an eye on Rachmarie. Don't let me die baby Rachy.

PEdit: Lol I called AJ town. Venny is so good.

You really think he did not crumb, Orc?

This is a good catch. Yeah we are lynching Rach today.

Also Rach is at L-1. Can we not get any votes until we have a claim, at the very least? Would honestly rather have the day phase last more than like 10 hours...

Am on board with the Varsoon lynch tomorrow.

[BROseidon]

VOTE: Varsoon

Andy can you address Wayne's case against you, especially now that you've claimed an NK action?

pedit: I don't think a protective role would be so stupid as to have protected Varsoon over, like, so many people. No. I outright do not believe anyone could be so dumb. Also, why would scum use a protective action on a townie instead of a scum mate?

[BROseidon]

orcinus_theoriginal, Meyneth, Mechonis Aligned Godmother

Neighbor

, was killed Night 3.

Uh, GiF...

Are you faking stupidity?

Ghost is not scumbuddies with Orc, unless the mod decided to put TWO NEIGHBORS IN THE SAME SCUMTEAM. Which seems useless, unless they have other people they can talk to.

Hey Ghost, is Orc your only neighbor, or do you have others?

[BROseidon]

Orc did yell at Vars, which only clears Vars of being Orc's scumbuddy. This is probably 3/3/14 multiball.

Which means that 2 has 2 scumbuddies left, of which Varsoon seems very likely to be one.

pedit: Nacho beat me to it >.>

[BROseidon]

Okay Ghost is def not Orc's scumbuddy. I don't think a full claim from you is necessary right now.

[BROseidon]

Something tells me the scumteams were out to crosskill last night.

Um, what? Why would you make this argument when Sajin was conftowned by Venmar?

[BROseidon]

N3, yes, the kills are accounted for.
I'm more concerned with N1 and N2 to be honest.

What concerns you about the N1 and N2 kills?

Why did anyone take MS's "claim" seriously...

I don't like SA for red scum. Not sure how I feel about him for blue scum, will ISO Orc and Rach when I have time. Also don't think I like MS for blue scum because of Orc's tunneling at the start. That does not seem like something scum would do with a buddy.

Play today is still Varsoon lynch, imo.

[BROseidon]

lylo means the game ends after a mislynch.

This is not that. You gave worst case, with everything missing (ie, vig shot missing and no scum cross-kill). Also, did you not read the part where Andy said that his sword broke?

[BROseidon]

SA, why are you ignoring the possibilities of a protective role, BP, or scum targeting the same person?

[BROseidon]

Do you have a reason for wanting to lynch MS before massclaim?

I am fine with massclaim now.

[BROseidon]

SA, do you have thoughts about which of the three you've pegged as scum is on which team? Why the TD vote over Nacho or SAD?

Btw you're arguments for TD and SAD seem sound. I'm a bit less sold on Nacho, although the fact that he's here is disconcerting. I don't have time right now (about to head out for the day), but later I'll ISO TD/SAD to get a better sense of what you're saying.

[BROseidon]

VOTE: TD

I think this is the best lynch for today. SA's argument+rereading his day 1 makes me want to lynch him (seriously, he RVS votes 2 then insists on townreading 2 until page like 97 at which point he STILL parks a vote on MS. Oh then he proceeds not to mention 2 again and still just sits there tunneling MS.)

SAD is also really bad as well and should probably die. He can be lynched next.

[BROseidon]

2 was obvscum. Not so much the buldey-half, but the ffery-half reeked of scum. How could you not see that?

Also:

Really starting to not like 2 after these last few pages :/.

First time you recognize that 2 might be scum. But then you follow it with multiple votes onto MS and NO MENTION OF 2 BEING SCUM.

I wouldn't want to lynch either GiF or MS today, but I might in a few days. Depends on how some other stuff plays out. Think MS is more likely town than GiF, but I would still want to lynch GiF at earliest tomorrow depending on some other stuff that I don't want to talk about.

[BROseidon]

Why did you say that TD vs MS was town v town, BRO?
I also don't like that the only conclusion that he makes is that AJ was a scumpartner and the group of people were town.

This was predominantly relational. I wasn't thinking about the multiball possibility, so I was trying to get relational reads from 2 to look for scumpartners. The way that 2 treated TD and MS both was strange, calling both of them scummy, so I figured it was scum trying to push suspicion onto two townies that were tunneling each other. The AJ early tunnel onto TD also supported this, since at the time I also thought AJ was scum. Now that AJ's flipped town and everyone else I thought was a 2 scumbuddy (AJ, Vars) have turned out not to be, I'm thinking that TD is on that scumteam. I think if MS is scum, that MS is blue scum, but I this isn't a strong read.

Okay, the GiF/Nacho exchange makes me like MS a lot less. Also holy shit tables.

Okay don't like Nacho much after the Nacho/TD exchange. Still confidant on TD/SAD scum (both red, I think), not sure if the last one (blue) is Nacho or MS or maybe GiF.

Still would like SAD/TD lynch, as those are the ones I am most confidant about (and I would rather lynch scum than not scum, and honestly that is a bigger priority than arguing about whether it is better to remove a scumteam vs. leave the crossfire option open). Leaving my vote on TD for now, but am very willing to jump to SAD or maybe Nacho/MS if my scumread one either of them grows stronger.

[BROseidon]

What points of TD did you like?

I didn't actually like anything TD posted so much as my gut response to what you posted felt off at the time. It feels like you might be blue scum trying to make sure that red-scum is lynched instead of town just trying to make sure that it is a scum lynch.

[BROseidon]

What's the benefit of having one less nightkill?

My point is that it's relatively immaterial at this point because town should be trying to lynch scum no matter what, not trying to lynch a specific scumteam. Town should be going with the lynch on the most likely person to be scum and not care nearly as much about trying to hit the right alignment.

[BROseidon]

Right, but that doesn't explain your scumfeels on me over TD. He was arguing we should try to lynch the last blue scum, I was arguing we should try to lynch one of the reds. Why did you believe I was blue scum trying to get the town to lynch red but you didn't think TD was redscum trying to get the town to lynch blue?

Umm...

Okay don't like Nacho much after the Nacho/TD exchange. Still confidant on TD/SAD scum (both red, I think), not sure if the last one (blue) is Nacho or MS or maybe GiF.

Also my vote has been on TD for a while.

[BROseidon]

TD are your scumreads of Nacho and MS of equal strength?

[BROseidon]

Yeah okay I still want TD lynched. 3874 solidifies that.

[BROseidon]

GIF-Bro-SAD I want your updated scumlists, if you please.

You+SAD red MS=Nacho>GiF blue (a lot of uncertainty there, hence my vote on you and my stated willingness to switch to SAD).

Nothing is really changing for me right now. I don't think SA's case on Andy is strong and he should get off it and get back on a good wagon.

[BROseidon]

Nah, I'm firmly where I should be. And I will finish unless there's a quicklynch. Or do you want to claim an investigative role? Sorry you can't see what I see, but Andy isn't town.

We can agree to disagree, then.

BRO- who seams to only be able to post when the light is shined in his direction (though all of his posts have a clear town feel, where are you now that it's down to crunch time?)

Busy. And my reads aren't really changing. Want to lynch TD or SAD. SAD seems to be getting traction now, so I'll switch my vote.

VOTE: SAD

[BROseidon]

Even in his bah post, he hydraslips.

I think this is the round to mass claim.

[BROseidon]

You and MS were claiming first no matter what.

[BROseidon]

MS do you want me or Nacho to claim first?

[BROseidon]

Vanea, VT

[BROseidon]

?

[BROseidon]

I think that a key detail that needs to be brought up is that it is highly unlikely that you are red scum. Nobody targeted you N1, which means GiF was on someone else. Unless Andy lied about his night one results, which would be wtf.

Right now my leanings are TD red and MS blue. Once I reread shit (ISOs on the scum, especially GiF), I'll go after someone.

[BROseidon]

Andy.

Nacho is not redscum unless GiF targeted Nacho night 1. Unless you can come up with a reason for a scumdoc not to target his scumpartner.

[BROseidon]

Red scum could only kill one of me+andy+SA last night. Blue scum probably wanted to hit redscum because going into 2:2:1 as the lone scum is much worse than going into 3:1:1.

[BROseidon]

I still haven't done rereads, so I'm still biasing towards TD red and MS blue, but I'm not entirely sold on you being town. Once I parallel ISO GiF/2/Orc/Rach with TD and MS I'll have a better sense of the probabilities of each of them being red scum, as well as the probabilities of each of them and you of being blue scum, and I'll push for whomever I feel has the best chance of being scum.

[BROseidon]

So. Much. To. Read.

Fuck it I'll post something this afternoon but it won't be as exhaustive as I would have liked.

[BROseidon]

Trying to get a post out and MS keeps logging me out for no reason.

[BROseidon]

God dammit can it stop doing that when I try to pull like 30 quotes for a massive wall.

[BROseidon]

Joint iso of GiF/TD/MS because fuck it I’m not going through 2’s 550 posts again.

GiF’s 93 and 97 are interesting. GiF doesn’t want to give a read on MS because he’s following a game. Not sure what to make of that.

@orc's 158 - not yet but there's a high chance my vote will end up there, especially after stuff like 168.

Weakish early stance on TD. Note that GiF’s vote never actually goes on TD.

Scum (not in strength order)
TD/sven/2

Still hasn’t said much about TD nor placed a vote here, but early scumreads with 2. GiF has also been weakly pushing 2 in a similar way up until this point. Also strange to joint scumread sven/TD when TD was pushing Sven at this point.

I skimmed the whole 700 page of wall


nacho town

freezerguy town

orc town

vassoon town

beautybeast town

mac town

tiphaine scum

sven troll

MS’s 15 minute skim. No comment on 2, but does townread GiF. Not an indicting entrance, imo.

2 also town, forgot to add u

P-edit no i am not going to vote someone, yet

Nevermind this entrance is actually now bad, with early townreads on both red scum. However, GiF was fairly consensus townread at this point and 2 hadn’t collapsed completely yet, so it’s not completely horrible.

AJ/Varsoon/Molljiffy.

I see what you mean by there.

But imo the TD wagon is not growing as fast as I would expect.

Perhaps the TD wagon didn’t build as quickly as “GiF would expect” because TD was scum and scum wouldn’t want to have one of their own lynched early in multiball? This point will also be relevant when I look at TD for bluescum.

Fact the third: When Nacho presented me evidence that this kind of thing does in fact occur, occurred in a game he was in, and is not a myth perpetuated to gain mislynches I FOUND THIS "INTERESTING" AND REMOVED MY VOTE.
Fact the fourth: The way sven is playing out this miller claim is not town. His multiple if I was scum if I was town posts really ping the scumdar for me, thus I voted him. I completely disagree with the stated fact that any miller claim creates wifom, that's bullshit.

Justifying fence-sitting logic in a weak way. I do not recall Sven’s claim being bad.

Town rage by 2.

No.

Varsoon makes eggo look like the inferior waffle brand.

That's not enough.

Defends Varsoon vs. Cabd but not TD. Doesn’t even comment on Cabd’s logic against TD. Looks like he doesn’t want to implicate himself later.

hey orc do u wanna MS wagon?

This looks good for MS, imo.

2 getting scummier

aj leaning town now

ghostlin town

mac stil town

reverend a+ slip contradiction strong

beast leaning town

andrius town

also good luck with reading john or whoever had to read 50 pages

cabd and guy in freezer very town right now

However, here there is no trajectory on the 2 read. Granted, MS hadn’t provided anything in terms of transparency with anything, so his trajectory with all his reads sucks >.>

Lol 1 minute iso. Just got to that and had forgotten how hilarious that was.

Ugh here starts the MS/TD mutual death-tunnels.

2 is still town

…still no.

2, nacho varsoon cabd strong town

Holy fuck the flopping 2 read. I don’t even…

My read changes:
2: scum to town
Rev: scum to town
MS: null to town

Now GiF pairs 2 with MS+a townie. Now he’s done it with both of them.

2420 and 2429 look like a late bus attempt to save face. However, TD tries to push a counterwagon, unlike GiF who jumps on the wagon.

2 was degraded from town to leaning town, just before the lynch

MS’s admitting to being wrong and not bussing actually is favorable to him, imo.

idc what everyone says Varsoon is town.
MS is also town.
AJ can be scum even though i would like to find my own reason on him.
My townreads so far haven't changed yet.
spinach slot looks better imo.
I still think Sajin is town even with his awkward convo with Venmar.
I still think TD is scum, but it's just a gut now.

Still never actually pushes TD.

As of now, TD (I'm still not convinced), SAD.

Dat trajectory.

3345 is TD already pushing this “lynch blue scum” stuff, despite not having done the same for redscum with 2.

Option one: It was a protective role, and they didn't protect ghostlin. The only other person I can see being reasonably protected last night is our claimed joat. One of the shots could have been on andi and thus prevented, this is a credible option.
Option two: It was a role block based role. If this happened, role blocker come forward now with your target, we have likely caught scum unless roleblocker missed and one of the other options is true.
Option three: We have a BP in the game who someone tried to shoot. Relatively straightforward.
Option four: Scum Crossshot, I can see this as a possibility because the kill was a conf town.
Option five: The blue scum team is dead. I haven't done the math on this but in a twenty person game if there were only four scum total wouldn't they likely all be on the same team? I know this is setup spec, and that is dangerous, but 3 and 3 feels more likely, Simply because I've never seen a multiball game with 3-2, and 4-4 would be mega-imba.
Option six: Scum held their kill. Honestly this one seems like the least likely, just because like, why would you do it? Spinach suggesting this sets off alarm bells for me, may need to go re-read tmt.

This post sits wrong with me for a few reasons. 1) The PR-hunting with the roleblocker when a roleblocker having a successful block would NOT have guaranteed that the blocked person would be scum (because of #4). Also, I feel like #4 should have been higher up on the list. It was certainly the first thing I thought when I saw the kill. Also, positing that one scum team is dead when 3/3/14 is fairly standard doesn’t sit well. Feels like scum trying to play dumb about the setup.

TD and GiF both want to hold off on massclaim. Interesting.

3503 looks like weak distancing while potentially setting up a SA mislynch

GiF’s conversation with Nacho about MS seems honest.

MS’s attack on SAD sits poorly.

MS’s push onto Nacho is solid, imo.

TD pushing nacho/me as redscum pings super hard especially now that Nacho is pretty much conf not-red, and I am not scum.

3766 MS reads GiF as “strong town.” He’s held a townread on GiF all game at this point, but I feel like scum would have wanted to start bussing, especially knowing that a crossfire was getting more and more likely with each round.

GiF scumreads SAD/TD/MS at this point. He’s bussing here. Implicates both equally.

MS’s 3814 feels really honest, imo.

Really don’t like TD’s push onto Nacho as red scum now. The “I want blue scum dead” seems really bad. Then he flips on Nacho on weak.

And we’re back to TD/MS tunneling.

I’ll ISO nacho later but TD looks super bad, MS looks fairly bad. Both could honestly be redscum and make sense but I would bias towards TD like 65-35.

Fuck Nacho has like 500 posts and Orc also has a fuckton.

[BROseidon]

Nacho is conf not red because he was untargetted night one.

Why would a scumdoctor not protect his scum mate?

[BROseidon]

Also, maybe he's bulletproof or something. Who knows?

Because a scumteam would get both a doc and a BP. That's excellent setup spec right there >.>

Given the flips for each scumteam that we've seen, I doubt the last scum PR is strong enough to justify not using a doctor's ability.

Gonna be busy the rest of this weekend at a gamejam (making a game woohoo), so I'm not sure when I'll get to look at the blue-side stuff with everybody. Nacho/MS/TD/Orc/Rach is a loooooooooooooooooooooooooooot of posts. May have to work on the post over multiple days.

[BROseidon]

last red scum PR*

Blue is probably fairly strong.

[BROseidon]

Ugh TD is V/LA and Nacho is at a meet.

MS, trajectory (assuming I'm using it right from how BnB/Nacho have been using it) is the thought process of a read. Does the change or strengthening of a read make sense, like there's a natural though process behind it, or does it look forced because scum know who their scummates are. Because you don't provide a lot of reasoning behind your reads, it makes it hard to gauge why you have your reads.

MS why did your read on 2 flip flop so much day 1?

Andy do you still think Nacho could be redscum or are you on the same page with me being almost certainly blue or town?

[BROseidon]

Why does TD make more sense as blue?

[BROseidon]

That is a valid point. What do you think of the case I built with the associative tells with GiF?

[BROseidon]

Andy makes a good point for blue TD, but Nacho doesn't make sense for red and MS makes less sense than TD.

MS why does SAD townflip make you doubt your reads? What about them are you doubting?

[BROseidon]

Got it.

Yeah I'm doubting reads constantly at this point because I've been wrong about everything after the 2 flip.

[BROseidon]

Waynegg stepped it up in a huge way. I was super sad when SAD flipped town.

And yeah bluescum stepping it up would make a lot of sense, although pretty much everyone except Nacho stepped it up yesterday to some degree. I would say it's valid to say TD and wayne stepped it up the most, though.

Yeah I'm starting to think TD is the way to go today. I want to run the last ISOs to be sure, but I think TD is our best bet. Unless something in Orc/Rach's ISO makes me think he's definitely not blue, he has high chance of flipping scum for either alignment that would make me want to lynch there.

[BROseidon]

Except the n1 nobody targeting him still doesn't make sense if he's red scum. I just can't get over that.

[BROseidon]

But GiF was doc.

That is the thing I cannot get past.

The only reason I could possibly think of is if Nacho is an n-shot ninja which would tip the red scumteam off to there possibly being a watcher role in play (n-shot or not) so they decided NOT to protect one of the most pro-town people on the day on the off chance Nacho got watched over BnB/Orc/Mac who were all also tasty targets WHILE HOPING he didn't get targeted by bluescum. I guess even if the last red isn't an n-shot ninja a watcher action being in play would still be a plausible assumption to make, but like, cmon.

That seems fairly unlikely to me.

[BROseidon]

"for whatever reason."

Maybe GiF was afraid of getting tracked? Okay, this is getting really WIFOM-y and I'm just going to Occam's razor it off and say that GiF was most likely on his scumpartner.

[BROseidon]

Fuck it, I'm not going to have time to read through another 1.5k posts. Again. I was wrong on SAD but I think my TD/MS reads are still solid.

VOTE: TD

[BROseidon]

How does the TD flip clear you?

I'm actually biasing towards you right now, but yeah, going to to reread everything, especially because I didn't get to do it last day phase because fucking hell 1k+ posts.

Encryptor allows daytalk.

[BROseidon]

Starting up my quad-ISO now. I'm at work so I probably won't be able to finish it in one sitting. I'll try to have it out by tonight.

[BROseidon]

Also MS that reasoning does 0 to convince me that you aren't scum.

[BROseidon]

Not getting the ISO up tonight, decided to play a few games of LoL for my sanity.

MS that argument completely ignores the context of this game. There's value to playing the numbers game early (ie, why I tend not to question day 1 miller and mason claims), but later you have to make judgment calls about what's actually going on.

[BROseidon]

Yeah I'm still working on it.

Hanging out with friends right now. Will get to it when I'm done with them.

[BROseidon]

About 1/2 way done at this point.

[BROseidon]

Here is part 1. it's through post 2000:

VOTE: Metal Sonic

confscum

Early random MS wagon. Not sure how to take this because I’m pretty sure Orc is actually just insane.

Orc is town.

Early townread on Orc. Nacho’s read comes before everyone else’s Orc townreads, which makes me think that it is more likely coming from townNacho rather than scumNacho.

Let's talk about Metal Sonic. He hasn't replied to or even acknowledged my RVS push. Wonder why?

More RVS push after Sven gets the townreads. Still null to me.

Holy fucking shit Nacho and Orc work together to calibrate BnB/2 for several hundred posts. I doubt scum would so blatantly work together and play off each other, and if it weren’t Nacho I would probably write this off as a town/scum interaction entirely.

Hi metal sonic nice to meet you. Are you going to vote someone?

Interesting that this is Orc’s first post directed at MS, considering that he did the whole MS wagon thing at the start. This looks like Orc trying to subliminally distance himself from a partner.

799 makes Metal look bad, imo.

Okay, there are a lot of day 1 convos between Orc and Nacho. This is making me feel less paranoid about Nacho because it’s completely different from how Orc interacted with Rach at a very fundamental level.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=25373

Crazy Newbie Game the JK and I as the Doc (surprise surprise) made it a no kill zone like forevers lol

What are you doing?

This is a standard Orc/Rach interaction. Short, only a few posts, often a bit hostile on Orc’s end. Orc is friendly with Nacho all through day 1.

So far Town reads : Nacho, Andy, B n B. Orc,
leaning town include GiF Cabd

Would Rach be so bold as to townread both scumbuddies on day 1 so blatantly? Probably null here, since Nacho and Orc were both universal townreads at this point.

Note that by Metal’s first set of reads he was townreading both Orc and Rach. That means all three of us were both townreading both bluescum.

I'll give reasons after the posting dies down. 50 pages(1000+ posts) in 72 hours, please no its torturous

Interesting that this never really happens. Scum biding time to not have to give in-depth though processes, perhaps?

3. Andrius
4. BeautyAndTheBeast (Majiffy + pirate mollie)
5. BROseidon
6. Cabd
8. Ghostlin
9. GuyInFreezer
11. Mac
13. orcinus_theoriginal
14. RachMarie
18. TiphaineDeath
20. Varsoon

Orc and Rach both are in Nacho’s early townblock, which looks sort of bad. However, TD and GiF both made their ways in there, which further would sooth my paranoia. Nacho being town and alive doesn’t seem so unreasonable when he’s townreading most of the scum so strongly. Or he could be bluescum who just misread TD/GiF horribly.

Rach I guess is the weakest read, but it's a stretch to see her as scum.

However this looks kind of bad, like a way to set up a bus on Rach later.\

Also, Nacho’s case on town-Rach off reading it again. The argument that Nacho presented was “Rach is giving reads and actively participating in the game, whereas in scum she usually sits back and doesn’t give reads.” That’s all good, but in multiball this is meaningless because scum still have a strong incentive to scumhunt well. Scum Nacho could have known this and used this to justify townreading a buddie. However, town Nacho wouldn’t have been aware of multiball, so this would be an honest mistake in that case. Since it was Rach’s flip that revealed multiball, I can’t check how Nacho adjusts his Rach read at that revelation, which is unfortunate.

Interesting that I’m in the 1600s and Orc has gone to barely mentioning MS. That random-seeming early pressure is dead. Clear partner motivation in that (early distancing while not actually pushing to the lynch).

MS is definitely a bit of pot meet kettle cause his ISO is also very short whilst he complains to Nacho for putting TD on the town list but not him ummm ... You definitely need to post more, and I will say that at least TD has posted some content... you can go in the leaning scumz pile...

This looks like coaching followed by distancing.

Looking at MS, AJ and TMT...

Rule of 3, perhaps? Also, I don’t think Rach ever really does follow up on MS in any serious way.

[BROseidon]

Also quad ISOing is terrible >:C

[BROseidon]

FINALLY DONE:

Okay what on earth is this metal sonic wagon

This seems so weird

umm Orc i really have no clue why the MS wagon... could be a counterwagon? Especially if there are two scum teams....

This has been pointed out, but this looks incriminating given the way Orc was on MS early.

MS maybe you should slow down on the reading dude and you might get it..... Sometimes when you read really fast you miss stuffs.

More coaching.

Still a lot of Orc/Nacho interactions through day two, and they still feel very natural.

If AJ flips town, my scumdar is broken and I'll probably try to pull a hard reset. We'll leave the townblock as orc, B&B, Cabd, Ghostlin, GiF. Then we'll split people in the townblock to interrogate other members that they aren't so convinced about, no interventions. Then we make another decision, reform the second ring of the townblock, lynch someone else.

This is a very natural reaction to the AJ mislynch. Inclusion of Orc is null because of the fact that he was a universal townread. Rest of this post is great.

also, lets discuss the 3 kills at night

This looks really bad. Venmar flipping hider should have made it obvious what had happened. It looks like scum saying “let’s let the town do the work so on the off chance they don’t see what’s going on I don’t have to reveal anything.”

aj the epic leaning scum

aj leaning town now

aj hasn't displayed anything scummy as of yet that I can see, so he will be a null-town until i can read him further but nothing extremely incriminating that I picked up on as of yet.

But you had him as scum in 1153?

^Pre iso


I iso'd cabd and aj right now,
aj is a lot more helpful than i thought. upgraded to town

But you had him as town in 1391?

This looks bad for MS because Orc’s followup is weak; it looks like distancing. Orc starts pushing the MS case during the day a bit, but he doesn’t push it too hard. He even goes so far as to saying that Varsoon and MS should be the lynchppool the next day. As soon as he decides to associative tell hunt off of Rach, he immediately jumps back to tunneling Varsoon and drops the MS point. He even brings up a few other people towards the end of the day, but not MS.

it should be obvious why I'm currently alive

Why not just say what that reason is outright?

you started voting Sajin the next day
you could've scumhunted elsewhere while voting TD, but you didn't. Why?

MS never really answers this question as to why he doesn’t scumhunt.

Metal’s push onto Nacho is fairly weak. The core of the argument is “Nacho usually plays a very good town game. Since he’s not doing that this game, he must be scum.” It ignores the fact that Nacho was aggressive all game in a way that is not true of what I’ve seen of his scumgame (WOOHOO CAN TALK ABOUT JOBPICK NOW). People can be wrong, which would explain why Nacho was kept alive for so long.

Nacho consistently asks questions in an attempt to engage Nacho, and Metal’s responses are disengaged. Not just terse, but he doesn’t try to forward the conversation at all. 3669 is an example of the type of post that I’m talking about.

Nacho: MS, TD, SAD
SAD: MS, TD, Nacho
MS: TD, Nacho, SAD
TD: Nacho, MS, BRO

Just came across this. GiF also has MS as a scum read, IIRC. That is a lot of people agreeing on a single read. Even if TD/GiF were faking reads about each other, they still needed to find that bluescum eventually.

Nacho’s convo with TD about whether lynching blue or redscum first is better looks kind of bad because of how TD flipped. Nacho pushing for a redlynch could have been Nacho trying to move attention from bluescumNacho. MS siding with TD in this conversation is actually really strange and makes me pause for a second.

7 days deadline ooh lala lets afk here

too much speculation too much theories

too little evidence

Bad. There was plenty of evidence to lynch TD at that point, and he barely got away from a lynch that day. Metal was strangely part of the reason TD didn’t get lynched.

why are protowns Andy + Broseidon not dying? of course spinach was a better target but why not andy over gif?

food for thought

This was a really bad post, trying to push suspicion because “why are the protowns not dying.” That night’s kills were easily explainable: Blue needed a crossfire and got the hit on GiF, and red could only kill one of me/SA/Andy with SA guarding one of me and Andy.

4180 feels really honest.

In fact, here's my ultimatum:

If you do not sort your read on me via finally making a case for me being scum or finally just trusting me because this is the game where I am town and alive a while but still clearly and powerfully town, then I will vote you. I will vote you and I will not take my vote off you for the rest of the day. I need the paranoia to stop, the town needs the paranoia to stop; your indecision is the ONLY way the mafia can grab victory at this point, can't lynch mafia both times without you solidly on our side both days and if I can't get my mafia lynch, then I guess I'll be making a townie lynch to minimize moving parts and hope desperately that the mafia don't figure out the obvious way to figure out this situation. If you can't even show me the respect to give me that real scum case that isn't just a town case, then you aren't even listening to me anymore and we have a better chance of winning through blind luck as opposed to actually winning and that's just sad. I don't want to win this game like that. This game already holds a special place in my heart because it's been fucking awesome; so many townies in this game have stepped it the fuck up and played AMAZINGLY: B&B obviously slam dunked the game several times and was thoroughly fucking great and mollie is going to slaughter me if we lose after the time she's put in, Venmar confirmed a vanilla town N1 and pegged scum N2 with his hider role which is actually perfect play for a hider role, and he trusted his read OVER MINE because he knew my read was wrong, Cabd was a player I had never seen before, never heard about before who completely gained my respect as a player over the course of ONE GAME, Mac who towned all over the place Day 1, was an excellently strong townread that everyone felt in their hearts was town because he actually WAS that town, Ghostlin who had that step up on Day 4 and played like a fucking god, Rev who took that scummy townie mislynch slot and turned it into an aggressive town slot that actually became a threat worth bullets, waynegg who was around yesterday who prodded the thread until the thread came alive again and brought life back into the game, even BRO who sent me on a paranoid stint because he's playing amazingly.

There is too much time put into this game by too many people to just throw it to the ground and leave it to scum to shoot each other. The town, the scum, everyone deserves more than that bullshit ending; it's essentially a draw between scumteams in that case (and I'll certainly count it as such) if we fuck up here and mislynch because every mislynch we made before brought us closer to THIS moment; when the game is truly and finally POE'd and it's just time to fucking lynch scum. I have paranoid leanings (even on you, imagine that), but this game has almost lasted two months, it's 171 pages, I've read it enough times. I'm not going to make any amazing revelations, I'm not going to be confident in pegging scum based on one post when everyone has so much content to read them off. And at this point, I've defended myself enough. I've poured my heart and soul into this game above all others and I want the win more than I want anything else, but if you want to lynch me for no reason at all, I'm going to make damn sure you never mislynch me in a crucial moment ever again.

And hey, there REALLY isn't a case on me. Vague meta case from Metal means nothing; we have ONE completed game together and somehow he knows my meta? No. TD doesn't even have a reason and isn't pretending to have any real ones, which should point to my towniness in and of itself, and the rest is paranoid. My reasons for 2 and AJ lynch are very heavily documented. Varsoon was a lynch that I could have lurked through and been fine for, but hey, I was on it and I did it. I did it because you shot him and because the AJ townflip sort of rocked my world and I needed to recalibrate. You know how that works, you've been there before. I felt on top of the world after the 2 flip because I played pretty damn well during Day 1, and the 2 flip told me that I did something horribly, horribly wrong.

And finally, it makes no sense for me to leave you alive this long. Paranoia is a powerful, powerful thing especially when I KNOW you get paranoid of me in LyLo and I KNOW you're going to considering I just beat you as scum in LyLo, so fuck that.

all in all,
i'm tired of running
i'm tired of pussyfooting around
i've tried to defend the best i can from nothing
but after this, i'm done

Vote: TiphaineDeath

This is incredibly town.

And then we are at today where Metal’s arguments have been weak, although Nacho has taken a huge back seat to me which makes me a bit nervous.

[BROseidon]

Okay, now that that is done, I'll say this:

I still think it's Metal. There is a handful of stuff that looks bad for Nacho, but Metal looks much worse throughout everything. I'm not sure if the fact that we need a replacement should affect my actions here, but I don't think that someone coming in is going to be able to shake my scumread on the slot.

VOTE: MS

[BROseidon]

Fine, I'm giving you a few days.

UNVOTE: ProHawk

Consider my vote functionally on you.

...fucking paranoia.

[BROseidon]

Prohawk, how's that reading coming along?

[BROseidon]

I learned that the game was multi-factional when Rach flipped.

[BROseidon]

Makes sense.

We only needed the crosskill that night because we mislynched SAD. Had we lynched blue scum, the next day would have been MyLo with 6 people.

[BROseidon]

I'm at work, so I'll have it open.

[BROseidon]

I hope you're not tricking me.

VOTE: ProHawk

[BROseidon]

In all fairness to Nacho, MS scummed up that slot hard.

I can't believe I pulled that off. Venmar made this game so hard.

pedit: LOL POSTS THIS IS GOING TO GAIN ANOTHER LIKE 200 POSTS.

[BROseidon]

I'll post the link to the dead QT once Orc and Rach give me the go-ahead.

For the record, I totally lucked out with the GiF shot. He played a really incredible game and I only shot him because SAD flipping town made me doubt everything and go with an early gutread I had.

And then I was right on TD anyways >.>

[BROseidon]

That LyLo was a setup in as much as I couldn't leave Andy alive because it would have been more obviously a setup had I done that.

pedit: Holy fuck that's what MS did? I was afraid to ask which game because of how nervous I was.

[BROseidon]

Can I get a link to the dead QT? I really want to read it.

pedit: In all fairness, I would be irked as fuck if I were in ProHawk's position. Day 1 was a bitch to read and reread b/c of how much Orc/2/Nacho/BnB spammed up the thread.

[BROseidon]

Also, I'm surprised you saw that because I didn't even realize how much I was buddying up Nacho until you posted that VCA and I'm right next to him on literally every wagon.

[BROseidon]

Reading the QT now.

We killed the track of TD to Mac because we were afraid Rach would get tracked...

Wow...

[BROseidon]

Oh yeah I jailed Varsoon. Orc said it was dumb but didn't have a better person to target, so I went with it.

I was pleasantly surprised at the result.

Still reading dead QT, stuff at work got in the way. Will release blue QT once Orc gives the go-ahead.

oh yeah /pre-in xenogears if there are still pre-in slots. Seriously this game was awesome and all the players were great.

pedit: That changes literally the entire game.

[BROseidon]

The dead thread was a fun read.

I like how ffery called me out on calling the sajin kill too quickly. That was exactly why we shot him.

[BROseidon]

Blue scum QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/uSjyfrKv4r2p

My reasoning for shooting Ghost was hilariously off.

[BROseidon]

Also Orc let me pull up what is possibly an even more awkward moment.

[BROseidon]

Also I find using meta to justify the likelihood of a miller fakeclaim frankly stupid.

Why is this stupid? If it's generally true that miller claims on day one are legit, then we should not lynch Sven, right?

[quote="In =
Cabd's town as fuck, GiF is town as fuck, you're town as fuck, I can't lynch buldey on Day 1 because he is so great but ffery's posts will tell me their alignment.
MS is a boring vote.

Why are Cadb and GiF town as fuck, and what does a "boring" vote even mean?

I'll buy Sven's miller claim for now. The miller claim early is super risky for scum, and for the miller it's a reasonable choice to make (I've day one claimed miller on the other site where I play, and it's standard there for millers to claim day one there). I don't think the fact that Nacho and Orc were so aggressive in questioning the claim makes them either town or scum (on the other site where I play it tends to be both that attack D1 miller claims), but I like the way in which both of them did it. Thinking both are town. Unsure about the rest.

Don't agree with 76 though. I don't think that everyone who chimed in on the miller claim is auto-town, and now that that post has been made it is definitely not an assumption we can make.

Is the fence leaving an imprint on your butt yet

fence

Second one was directed at Rach. I'm stunned nobody pointed this out.

[BROseidon]

FUCK I MISTYPED IT.

[BROseidon]

Not really.

I killed GiF because I was too busy to reread and I had this vague gut feeling that GiF was scum after I was wrong about SAD. I was really sure about SAD/TD, so when GiF flipped red I knew it was TD and I wasn't horribly wrong.

Also GiF why the fuck were you protecting town? My reasoning for not killing Nacho was proved horribly wrong >:C

[BROseidon]

Because why not protect your buddy?

[BROseidon]

Oh, something I forgot to comment on earlier:

Re the multiball point in the dead QT- I found multiball here to be really fun, but I do agree that it has the potential to be super swingy. Had Rach not got investigated and Orc not NK'd, this game would have been much less epic. I feel like it would be frustrating from a town perspective for your win to be dependent on the two scum teams working against each other at certain points in the game, which forces town to try to lynch from the scum teams evenly despite not even knowing at the start that they need to do this.

[BROseidon]

okay, another question:

Definitionally, do you consider multiball to be two scum factions, or does a scum faction+sk count?

[BROseidon]

Are games allowed to have 11 pre-ins?

[BROseidon]

^I want to see that hydra. Sounds fun.

I didn't want to use my fakeclaim because my fakeclaim was jailer which at that point would have been fucking stupid to claim. "Hmm, all these kills are going through but we have a jailer, what's going on here?"

Although I guess I could have no-killed for WIFOM, but that would have been risky, and I still would have had to claim actions that weren't "Oh, I protected Orc every round except when that would have prevented us from NKing looks like I need an excuse to switch..."

[BROseidon]

And I would have shot you instantly for being scum

[BROseidon]

update: Xenogears is finished and should be going into signups hopefully within a few days.

<3