Brightest Day Mafia, Part 1 - GAME OVER
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There's a lot of posts. I didn't read the thread after my last post. I've skimmed through and noted some things.
Agree with choice claim. I picked Non-Lantern, Colored Lantern, Black/White Lantern. I got Colored Lantern.
Agree. In BNM Yellow scum successfully used this exact same analysis to find Red scum (that plus Red scum made themselves obvious).NPIAU wrote:Implying one of them is lying. I lean Nikanor actually. Though I'm not sure what their reason for lying could be.Nik backtracking and claiming potential White Lantern could be a legitimate mistake or could be grabbing onto an excuse, the mason claim is plausible.
iHsib's miller claim pretty much tells us that RedFM wrote:So until we have flips orhave Cop claim that gives flavor Mod responses that restrict Mafia to a set groupnothing about the make-up should be assumed. I’d expect a Mafia team mix (some Red / Yellow Lanterns, some other Villans, maybe a White Lantern)isa characteristic of Mafia. It may not be theonlycharacteristic, but to say being Red makes you investigate as Mafia is nigh equivalent to theunderlined.
Agree with most of this (and with Mastin's assessment of Ooba's post). However, Ooba I'm not sure why CJ thinks Ooba sounds more like Mafia than Cult given the linked post.CJ wrote:This wagon needs to happen. Firstly, Ooba starts the game with a joke about voting LLD, which is normal, but then immediatly glosses over joke voting LLD, despite given a golden opportunity to do so with her 'slip' when she typed goon, instead rolling the dice and going with their results on who to vote. I'm not sure why he did this, but it is more likely that town would have plunked down a vote on LLD without worrying instead of ignoring that opportunity and moving onto something else alltogether. (voting vezok)
Also, the fact that through nine posts he has not gotten a single thought in about who is more likely scum than town, or who the cult recruiter is (instead promising it in three days (?)),but has instead talked about the flavour of the game (and his speculation isn't even that helpful) definently is more likely to come from someone anti-town who wants to wait and see how things unfold.Also, it seems Mastin is mixing reads with random/joke/fake mod-confirms, but I'm having trouble reconciling this with him ID'ing Ooba as Cult.prior toOoba posting anything indicative of that
Agree with this.Toast wrote:We could just say which corps/non-lantern group we are in
I read it a lot more like Ooba trying to take a leading role in directing lynches. If he is CR, then he can even throw town a bone and "successfully" lynch a recruit or two (hell, if there really are TWO CRs, he could even gambit and "successfully" lynch the CR or CR Backup for loads of town-cred).CJ wrote:Now, why does ooba want us to focus exclusively on one scumgroup D1? Because he's scum from the other faction (Mafia) and wants to a) buy a pass for not hunting other members of his faction and b) potentially buy his faction a free pass into lategame.
In other words, "I'll call you town if you stop calling me scum."Friend wrote:I'm not scum, and you pushing it is getting increasingly anti-town.
@Nik/Friend/Muffin-
Are you guys actually claiming some sort of mod guilty on Toog? If you have something concrete, then I'm ok with placing a vote there, but if it's just the cases that you've been pushing, then no dice; they haven't been particularly convincing.
VOTE: OobaShowT: 9/6.5/0
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With Toog lynched, I'm keeping my vote where it is.
@Ooba-
This was ridiculous. There's no need to invent a BS reason to justify voting Toog. The claimed guilty is the reason for lynching him. Also, your flavor chronology is screwed up and indicates you have not actually read the comics but instead are just quoting bits and pieces from a wiki (or whatever source). Ganthet became a Deputy Green Lantern at the same time that Luthor became a Deputy Orange Lantern.
More than that though, the Mod took liberties flavor in BNM and has said he may do the same in BDM. Flavor CAN be helpful, but this was not an example of that.
@Tans-
Does your PM mention of Luthor include anything that identifies or hints at Luthoras town, or is that just a conclusion you are drawing?
The flavor of Luthor's as a villain AND his betrayal of his mission support him as prob-scum. The Governor claim asks to be tested (and Ooba's claim to be town but to be unwilling to Governor himself is WTF?!?). But trumping both of those is that his play itself strongly suggests he is playing as scum.And this is getting to outguessing the mods, but I think his posted choice submission speculation for game setup has a good chance at being correct and I would expect Dana to give Ooba Luthor/SK/Independent given his post guessing about Luthor.
I could see Tans as town with Ooba as scum (of some sort). I could also see a Larfleeze/Luthor pair as two third party roles (potentially not on the same team as each other).
@Mastin-
Your softclaim asXofXandYSTRONGLY suggests who you andYareANDSTRONGLY suggests thatYis a role that probably does not want to reveal herself. But it looks much more like a town-town pair than the Oranges.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@LLD-
Also, please stop with the colored font stuff. It's annoying for others to read. If that's not enough reason for you to stop, it's also technically against the rules.
@Mod-
After a lynch does the vote count reset or do we continue with the previous votes?
UNVOTE:
VOTE: OobaShowT: 9/6.5/0
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This is NOT what I said at all and is ridiculous. There is no reason for you (as town) to invent a BS reason to vote Toog. There is pretty obvious reason for scum Ooba to BS a reason; it looks like you were over-justifying your vote and/or pretending that you had a unique/legitimate reason for voting to buy yourself town-cred when Toog flipped.Ooba wrote:- There is no reason for me (as scum) to invent a BS reason to vote Toog when I could have just sheeped the rest into voting for the guilty. Absence of any scum motivation for pointing out that his claim didn't fit the {white,tans-me} claims points to me doing exactly what I said I was - pointing out discrepencies as town.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Submitted before finishing response.
If a townie can stop the lynch of a confirmed townie, then he should. There's NO guarantee at all that you'd be lynched again, but not using your power GUARANTEES that a townie PR gets mislynched.
Wifom.Am I cult?
No. I am not going to come out of the gates cult hunting as cult. Lying low or just general scum hunting (i.e my regular play as Mafia) would have carried me through most of the game without getting lynched.
Is this serious at all?Am I scum?
No. One, I have tans vouching for me. Two, the brokeness of the Janitor+Governor combo should be apparent.
It is certainly possible that you have a fake claim you chose not to use. (Especially given your claim was AFTER a Larfleeze claim that didn't result in a lynch). It's also entirely possible that you are lying about being Luthor or having a Governor power at all. The whole "I'm a governor but I'm not going to use it. Oh wait I can't use it." Doesn't exactly ring with confidence.Am I third-party?
If I was third party like Tans last time, the mods would have given me a fakeclaim. (Tans had "Sodam Yat" last game)ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Ooba's Defense-
All I'm really seeing is you repeatedly stating that Tans claim proves you are Lex Luthor and that Lex Luthor cannot be mafia.
What Tans ACTUALLY posted is:
My role PM mentions Lex Luthor...
I'm thinking if you are on the Ooba wagon you should get off it now
See the thing is my PM basically saysI gave my powers to Lex Luthor for the time being(24 hours) butI will get them back.
So I'm unsure of what to make of his role. I believe he is Lex Luthor, but I am wondering if he might turn after D1 into another faction.
Taken from Wikipedia:
Lex Luthor (of Sector 2814): During the Blackest Night event, Lex Luthor is granted membership to the Orange Lantern Corps for a period of 24 hours, becoming the only other living member of the Corps besides Larfleeze himself.[14] In the final issue of Blackest Night, Luthor's power ring and Orange Lantern abilities faded away.[16]
Anyone know what happens to Lex after the 24 hours is up in the comics?
Nothing in there even suggests anything about Luthor's alignment. As far as what's been claimed, Tans has specifically mentioned aflavor reason for a potential mechanic tie for Tans getting a power-up in future; and from this he is assuming that Luthor might be present in the game.
The flavor behind the claim itself doesn't really make sense in thatLarfleeze did NOT give away his own ring/power; the whole point of the Deputizing was to INCREASE the number of lanterns to BOLSTER each corps. It's not damning, but it's certainly NOT a reason to trust or clear Ooba.
I'm getting bad vibes from the whole, "Tans confirmed me, leave me alone" nonsense.
@Mastin-
You're right, my mistake. You did claimYand notX. I'm semi-incredulous that you claimed that. It seems like a horrible move for town. I suppose that fits with the level of random/non-existent analysis and reads you've arbitrarily and incomprehensibly latched onto. I suppose that just shows the level of play that should be expected from youTo be clear, Mastin's soft claim does strongly indicate town. His play indicates bad town.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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I'm going to be V/LA from August 6th until August 23rd. I might have internet access while travelling, but I'll probably be too busy to stay current with the game.
I've checked this with the mod already so my twin brother is going to fill in for me while I am V/LA. He'll be posting from this account since he doesn't play mafia on mafiascum (but he's played extensively on other sites and is very familiar with mafia game mechanics and theory). We think similarly enough about things that it'll probably be indistinguishable except he'll be active in East Coast Time Zone and he won't know any of you.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Not necessarily the case. It's entirely possible that this is some sort of gambit by CJ. It seems unlikely that scum would single out CJ's vote on Apok when Ooba had and has so much attention and CJ's participation in the lynch is unnecessary and could easily have gone completely unnoticed. (Should go without saying, but it's just as unlikely if not more so that a townie would randomly freeze CJ's vote and not claim it; though it's possible it was a townie who has not posted since this came to light).Nikanor wrote:because otherwise ML wouldn't have tried to hammer like that.
I did not previously think CJ is/was scummy, but it's hard to believe he doesn't know what's going on. Whether this is some kind of town gambit, or some kind of scum ploy; it's hard to determine with the information at hand. It doesn't seem at all plausible to me that scum would arbitrarily freeze CJ or that they would arbitrarily freeze a player voting Apok. Neither seems even remotely relevant to today's lynch in any way.
@Mod Re:Two scum teams-
You know that there isacult (the Black Lanterns).
You know that there isamafia faction in this game.
Does the "a" in either of the two quoted special rules indicate that there is a single cult and a single mafia faction, or does it just indicate "at least one" of either?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Toast-
I thought that was pretty clear; I can't see any reason why scum would:
1) Freeze CJ's vote
2) Freeze a vote on Apok
Additionally, none of this distraction and aimless speculation would be happening if CJ hadn't posted an apparent hammer vote on Ooba. The vote itself is odd since:
-CJ had very explicitly stated unwillingness to lynch Ooba today.
-Ooba has very explicitly requested a chance to post final thoughts before anyone hammers.
Game play wise it doesn't make sense. Game mechanics wise it is at best a complete waste of a vote freeze (if that is what it is).
Beyond that, if CJ/Tar decided to gambit, there's LOTS of plausible explanations for why "he froze his own vote", whereas there's really NONE for why someone else would do so.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Nik-
-Are you running with Mastin's speculation that there are two scum teams, one of whom froze CJ's vote, the other of whom contains CJ/Ooba, AND that CJ just got caught when he attempted a hammer-bus?
-Are you proposing something similar, only calling CJ a BL who got caught by an unexpected scum ability?
I do not see a scum motivation for scum to freeze CJ's vote. Since it seems other players are unaffected, it's a very ineffective way to protect Ooba. It potentially buys town-cred for CJ if he's seen as a victim of a scum ability; but that also seems unnecessary.
@Toast-
A passive mechanic would be more plausible than randomly targetting CJ/Apok, ie. some scum ability that freezes the vote of first person to try hammering Ooba. But that still seems unlikely. If it were true is says NOTHING AT ALL about CJ being town; and it still allows the possibility that CJ's vote was a gambit/scum-ploy.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Just checking in, wrote this up during the looooong Night 1, sorry I couldn't join in on Day 1. As Kast posted, I'm his twin brother and will play for him until he is back on the 23rd. Trying to get a grasp on all the players/alts; I've never played with hydras before.
After reading through all those posts day 1, I think I have some decent reads on the more prolific posters. Nikanor, Muffin, Friend, Hiplop, Subliminal, and Mastin strike me as town. Andrius, CJ, Tans, and Vezok* strike me as possible scum.
Don't have much of an opinion on the rest, or not enough to warrant sharing. Do you guys usually share speculation on night actions and supected motivations, or is that better to keep hidden for now and bring it up when there is a more solid case? Normally I play assuming that a scum team is already just as capable of noticing any observations or conclusions I make from public information, so it's better to share with the other townies that might not have noticed things.
Either way, I will probably be posting a more in depth analysis for the players I find more suspicious. Yesterday's vote weirdness seems the most pressing point to me; that and CJ's attempted hammer, even if it technically happened after the day was over. Since we now know ooba was town, we can surmise there was neither a scum motivation to try to save ooba by preventing a vote switch, nor motivation for scum to prevent a non-scum CJ from voting a town ooba.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Um...why is oversoul voting Toast? Nik already pointed out the directed kill strategy.
CJ, Andrius and Vezok seem the most likely mafia (likely others as well). Unless I miss read something (false humility), vezok claimed day 1 that he is JL, and that Nik and company were lying about being JL. Link to post 442 as reference. That, combined with claiming to become a WL by buddying up to hiplop and using "role" info that hiplop announced to gain town cred, make him a likely scum player.
Andrius also rubs me with a scum feel due to the tone of some of his Day 1 posts. Both posts include statements that come from a uniquely scum=mafia perspective. Link to posts 519, complains about mod making the game unbalanced against scum, and 542, concludes that cult team can screw over mafia team, thus concluding that scum are screwed if culted (when in fact only *mafia* would be screwed, while cult would be doing really well). Either case, both posts draw conclusions that come from a largely scum perspective (also, he talks WAY too much).ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Friend, I have very little read on WLC. I think he posted what... 7-8 times?
He checked in, voted ooba for random voting (which we know for certain was a random vote), choice claim, claim he was going to read through everything, post that he is sure about the ooba vote, revote for ooba after the first lynch, and idle speculation that the vote weirdness was due to ooba.
As I found ooba suspicious as well, I didn't get any odd vibe from the limited posts, but re-reading knowing that ooba was town, it does give me a scummy feeling.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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On balance though, I don't see anything that would imply cult necessarily, as opposed to mafia? You were coming from the perspective that WLC is cult, and I don't usually associate cult members to be gunning hard for anyone in particular unless they have reason to think the player is a danger to the cult.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Andy:
It's a scum perspective because a townie wouldn't assume scum is screwed, since mafia scum would be screwed but cult and SK woudl be benefitted or unaffected respectively. It would require you to be highly imprecise to make that mixup between scum and mafia. They CAN be used interchangeably, but as you yourself criticized earlier in Day 1, I doubt you would be so careless unless it was slip up.
While this is certainly a subtlety in language, from your posts yesterday, I'm fairly sure you can grasp it. If you disagree (with the content, not with your ability to grasp finer points), then please say so, but don't try to use a technicality to deflect it suc has the potential interchangeability of two words.
Also, as far as mafia perspective from public information, that's a simple concept. It comes down to two points: (1) information asymmetry allows mafia to draw greater conclusions than any single town player;especially as they can work in concert and point things out to fellow mafioso if someone does miss a point, and (2) the fact that mafia have a different end goal, thus are more perceptive to things that are more relevance to them (forget the technical term for this, I keep thinking selective bias but I know that's wrong term);the fire inspector walks into the music store and observes all the escape routes while the guitar enthusiast only sees the vintage Les Paul.
Blackberry:
Nice observation. I'm curious as well on the distinction. I assumed uncultable was the same as unrecruitable.Mod, can we assume these two ability keywords are identical, much like a cop and a detective?
Peregrine:
NPIAU half-assed Vezok, but I don't recall NPIAU every claiming or being included in the mass JL claim.
@Oversoul:
^--update:This is the most retarded thing to claim if you don't actually know the player is an SKNik in 865 wrote:He's an SK so we're just going to direct his shots dude.
hiplop wrote:wait, you think I'm VEZOKS partner? WTF.
No...maybe you use the term differently, but from a general grammatical structure, if I say "A claims to be a WL by buddying up to B" that means A is trying to associate himself with B. In this case, Vezok claims to have the same WL mechanic that you claimed, to give him townie cred when for all we know he just copied the information you already stated. I think you are pretty solidly town, hence why he was trying to associate himself with you.
RE: Andy and Tans:
I'm goign to read more into this. I have susp[icions on both, and may have soemthign useful to contribute...when I get through the additional 4 pages of texts...(did I mention you guys talk way too much for me to keep up)?
"A mason whose investigative, bulletproof, and can pass through my ability? Yeah there's no way in hell thats town." <- yes it's possible based on Nik's post
"He actually said that the first investigation was his didn't he? He said he was the first to send it in via PM." <- no he said it's a group power and he was the first to submit. This is a subtle distinction again, but it is very different.
I believe he claiemd a *day* investigation that was a mason team investigation. Day 1. But I think I'm willing to test your 1-for-1 trade, and if we lynch you first. It's tricky since your'e an SK and by common game strategy (where I learned to play), you always use the SK as long as you can.
Nik, are you willing to play chicken with Toast?
No, it's actually very sensible. Tans is more and more making snese to me. In light of the fact that nik claimed the investigate was a day investigate mason team power, this is consistent and directly comparable to a group ability such as the mafia kill. **I am assuming of course that mafia collectively make a the kill based on the posted site information and the discussion in that quote and others in this thread, but that seems a pretty safe assumption...Andy wrote:That's the dumbest freaking question ever.
"@Nikanor: You dumbass." QFT.
Dude...we all SAW the post where he lost his BP. Maybe you couldn't guess who it was, but friendly and Nik both hinted at it pretty blatantly. I'm going to start relaxing my general assumption that mafia collectively is as observant as any given player.HE DIDNT CLAIM IT THOUGH DID HE?
I THOUGHT HE SAID HE DIDNT LOSE IT.
[offtopic]Death Note - Interesting manga series.[/offtopic]
I'm willing to lynch Nik now. If he's scum, and we leave him, we'll be in martyr syndrom and if he's jsut an arrogant ad ballsy townie who's willing to fake claim SK results on someone he thinks is MAFIA Jailkeeper, then he's a retard that made a false clai mdesigned to keep mafia alive longer and lull the town into a foolish assumption.
Of the claimed JL masons, can I get a straight word from someone that hasn't completely shot his credibility and competency (read hiplop/friend/muffin), who can you ACTUALLY objectively vouch for? I don't want your read right now; I want to know objectively who I can trust.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Muffin: are you in a mason group with Nik, hiplop, and friend, and do you know for a fact that none of them are mafia? I'm only interested in objective Mod-given confirmation. For instance, if you are all WLC rather than Justice Leaguers (since we know LLD wasn't in your mason claim and WAS JL), I would assume with just flavor information that you are actually confirmed non cult but nothing beyond that.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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NPIAU:
That's mistating my point; I don'twanta Nik lynch, but I'mwillingto lynch him. He's either a retarded town or scum. It seems to me the most compelling reason Nik is town is because of the JL/WL claim, but Nik himself is claiming there are WL fake claims. BTW, since others keep (mis)stating this, did oyu during Day 1 ever claim to be part of the Nik/Friend/Muff/hiplop Mod PM issue? from what I see you only stated you trusted them, not that you were part of them.
Spoiler: Thoughts on Nik - in summary he's probably just a retarded townie
Friend (and otherPM-Masons):
Are you actually a mason with Nik, or did you just assume he's town because he knew about a PM that multiple claimed WL players received?
Muffin/Friend/Hiplop, as the three other claimed PM receivers, I would like confirmation on this point. I asked earlier as well, and wasn't answered. Are you actually masons, or are you just assuming? If assumption, is this flavor based? See, when I learned mafia, mason was an actual role, not what you call someone when you assume they are town and they assume you are town. So if itns' not a role here, that would explain a LOT of the logical contradictions and blatant lies I'm seeing from Nik.Nik wrote:ooba, there is no way in hell that anyone from our masonry is a CR. Mafia, maaaaaaybe. But not CR.
I missed this from you. I also think this may make sense; I was wonderign why others had earlier assumed LLD was vigged while FM was mafia killed. I thought both of the two were likely town, FM for good town play and LLD for hysterics.muffin wrote:So, I'm thinking LLD was a scum kill, Frozen was hero-vigged and we have day-killing scum.
Anyway, I agree that it would be best to lynch cult. I'm not sure I buy into the theories on who the cultists are. I think WLC is more likely cult than Apok, but going through my notes I can't find anything specific to indicate why I have that thought. I may have internalized some of NPIAU's arguments.
I think the most obvscum right now is Andy, and that he is most likely mafia, next most likely an ADD townie, and unlikely SK or cult.
pedit: Mr.S, I would like to hear your reasoning for the Nik pseudo vote.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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pedit: Thanks for the response muffin. As you might expect, it doesn't really do much to clear up any confusion on my part. Can you at least clarify who are the publicly claimed members of your masonry? From what I read of Day 1, there are 4 members who explicitly claimed to receive a Mod PM:
Nik
Muffin
Friend
Hiplop
Since then, Friend has multiple times vaguely and multiple times blatantly defended and included nopointinactingup as another member of the masonry, or as a confirmed townie. A few other players have referenced nopoint's posts as being form the mason team as well.
Learn2read. I am not, nor have I ever voted for Nik - note: I am willing to lynch him, but that is more for meta reasons. Probably not as relevant since I don't play on this forum, but I typically ascribe to the philosophy that the only way to discourage retarded play is to lynch all retards.Apok wrote:Kast's twin: Why in the nine hells are you voting Nikanor just because of a stupid gambit? He's pretty much confirmed town.
Also Nik is no more confirmed than town Muffin, yet you're FoS'ing Muffin. Cognitive dissonance much? I'm still waiting on some explanation from the PM-Masons...
I'm going to go back through and try to look for hints of cult play. Admittedly not my strong point.
Since you're mafia, you DO have a vested interest in finding cult players. Can you enlighten me on how your statement makes sense? You took my quote out of context by the way. I had just finished summarizing WLC's 8 posts from Day 1 in that series of posts, which were nearly exclusively gunning for an ooba lynch. Who turns out not to be a player particularly dangerous to the Black Lanterns. So tell me. Since you agreed with my analysis on how cultists play, how does WLC's play suggest cult?Andy wrote:
That's why WLC fits so well.Me wrote:and I don't usually associate cult members to be gunning hard for anyone in particular unless they have reason to think the player is a danger to the cult.
To me, it doesn't suggest mafia or cult or SK in any particular way; it might suggest lyncher, though I doubt that is the case. I don'tt see it as an indicator for or against.
Friend, since you (I think) initiated the WLC as cult agenda, can you summarize the arguments? I went through your posts and you never actually cited a reason beyond that you think he is cult.
The only lead I have to suggest WLC as cult is his recent vote on Mr. S, which does seem like an indicator.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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On a fake investigation result, that he carelessly based off of Toog posting "lolwut? /anywhoconfirmandwhatnot", that could have been just as dead wrong as his dead wrong read on Toast. And that caused several townies to wrongly suspect Toast. A lucky fool is no less a fool.I don't know how you can call someone retarded when he singlehandedly got Toog-scum lynched.
CJ wrote:Hold on what is going on with this statement. First, what does martyr syndrom mean to you in context of this game? Second, the fact that you acknowledge someone could be a ballsy townie but you are willing to lynch them anyones is not a town mindset. Thirldy, from the progression of actions nikanor jokingly (?) claimed a SK result on toasty, toasty over-reacted and then claimed JK, and then nikanor argued that he was probably a scum jailkeeper. He didn't fake a result on someone he thought was a mafia jailkeeper, he faked a result on someone who after several actions transpired he now thinkis is a mafia jailkeeper.
Not sure what you're also talking about with keeping mafia alive longer and lulling the town into anything. This post is disingenious.
FOS: KAST
Martyr syndrome refers to town reluctance to take action after once failing to take such action. This is rooted in behavioral theory, often referred to as the Endowment Effect. The term was a pretty common term where I learned mafia, with the name deriving from the most common occurrence when a scum player sets up a false propositioni.e. lynch me then you'll know I'm telling the truth, the town fails to act on it, then later assumes it is true despite the fact that it was never proven.
I feel like this is mostly a waste of time since we're already in a martyr syndrome, but since several peopel seem to think Nik's gambit is smart play:
Spoiler: why Nik as town requires Nik to be a retard
Do you not read posts in context?CJ wrote:
How does this even make sense? If someone is acting anti-town and scummy, you'll only place a vote down on them if you can get them to configure to a view where they are cult?Kast in 1051 wrote:Oh, and while I'm at it, I'm going to vote: Andy, with understanding that I'm quite willing to lynch cult if someone actually makes a good case.
I clearly stated my preference to lynch cult over mafia, but as I didn't see any merit to the arguments against WLC and Apok as cult, I instead voted the most obvious mafia member, Andy.Kast in 1050 wrote:Anyway, I agree that it would bebest to lynch cult. I'm not sure I buy into the theories on who the cultists are. I think WLC is more likely cult than Apok, but going through my notes I can't find anything specific to indicate why I have that thought. I may have internalized some of NPIAU's arguments.
I thinkthe most obvscumright nowis Andy,andthathe ismost likelymafia, next most likely an ADD townie, and unlikely SK or cult.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Toast, for Nik to be scum, Friend, muffin, and hiplop would have to be scum as well, and that doesn't seem too plausible.Toast wrote:@CJ: How is this not obvious? Yes, I thought he was town. Then he claimed a result on me that was 100% impossible to have. So yeah, now I don't even remotely trust him and think he's scum. Common, logical sense.
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity - Hanlon's razor
Incidentally, going through Andy's posts, he seems awfully close to CJ.
BTW CJ:
Ifyou read that statementCJ wrote:
Flailing is not the word I use to describe people I consider confirmed town.Apok wrote:Why in the nine hells are you voting Nikanor just because of a stupid gambit? He's pretty much confirmed town.in context, you'll notice the full statment Apok made was,
That wasn't addressed to you, it was addressed to me. Please try to read in context. You get distorted and completely wacky interpretations when you do that.Apok wrote:-Kast's twin:Why in the nine hells are you voting Nikanor just because of a stupid gambit? He's pretty much confirmed town.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Nik: I'm sorry. I did go overboard. I got frustrated with what is very clearly senseless play, and while it doesn't validate my language, I assumed from the prolific labeling ofidiot/stupid/dumbassduring Day 1 that this was not out of place on these forums. In retrospect, that it was only Andy and Mr. S using such appellants, and I will refrain from doing so any further. While I bristle at your comment, I recognize and acknowledge that it is fitting and appropriate given my name calling and I hope you will pardon my offense.
BTW. It has no bearing on my analysis of your play and decisions. I still find your gambit unwise and more harmful/confusing than anything, and full of contradictions and careless or thoughtless behavior.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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That is obviously NOT what I'm saying. I am voting for mafia now. Since you either can't follow what I posted or are intentionally distorting, I'll make it simpler.CJ wrote:And my point stands, if someone else is acting anti-town and most people agree on this, (and you too possibly), but think he is mafia, you are saying you wouldn't place a vote down on them because they 'aren't cult'?
I am currently voting mafia. I would rather vote cult than mafia right now.
...srsly...didn't think this would be difficult for you to understand since you voiced the same opinion Day 1...
CJ wrote:With a Red Lantern down I'd rather take out the probable Cult Recruiter first
To more directly answer your question, I would vote for another player if I thought he was acting anti-town. For instance, if most people agree you are scum-mafia (and I agree with that), then I would definitely place a vote down on you.
If most people (read: you and your second head) think that muffin is scum (and I disagree), then I wouldn't place a vote on himbecause he isn't scum.
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To Friend and GW: If I understand right, you suspect WLC as cult because:
(1) He hasn't posted much
(2) He attacked the idea that WL are anti-Cult
Is that the bulk of the argument? I see some merit to the second one, but I don't see the first one. Actually, my statement is imprecise; while he hasn't posted much, his posts Day 1 gave me a feel that he was actively participating, but probably overwhelmed by sheer post volume, and that he actively took a position in gunning for ooba's lynch. I feel like a cult player wouldn't be actively gunning for a lynch unless he had information to warrant such behavior.
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Reviewing the low post players, I actually think Blackberry is more guilty of both offenses. I suggest you read through his post history; he begins with questioning Nikanor, he points out the Uncultable vs Unrecruitable role descriptor (could indicate he is interested in cult hunting, or could indicate he's cult and wants to know what he's up against), he fence sits regarding Nik vs Toast, but continues to post to discredit Nik (though admittedly, his criticisms are spot on). He contributes little content, and takes no official stances, while at the same time adding fuel to Toast and myself who had both voiced criticism of Nik's fake gambit, while keeping himself distanced. That rings to me as a non-commital cult-like play. Also, his criticism of Mr. S's gambit.
Peregrine's *3 posts* also worries me, especially as his justification for voting WLC is that WLC voted Mr. Sthe Entity, and he didn't remove that vote after Mr. S revealed that it was a fake gambit. I think there's a good chance peregrine is cult, fake cult-hunting, and happy to push the WLC wagon.
That in mind,Unvote, Vote: Blackberry
My updated list:
Town:
Nik
Muffin
Friend
Hiplop
Nopoint
Toast
Mr. S
Mafia:
Andy
CJ
Vezok
SK:
?
Cult:
Blackberry
PeregrinneShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Tans, honestly, I was originally suspicious you were mafia of you after reading through Day 1, but after your interaction with Andy today, I am fairly positive you are not mafia.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Vezok:
Every post before your realization in 362 "My abilityseemsstrongerafter I realized this is double lynch." Combined with the fact that someone else just pointed out that it is a double lynch, and that you use seems in present tense.
Peregrine:
I realize you only joined day 2, but your first post was on Monday, and between then and when I commented, you had only posted 3 times total. I also only replaced my brother during N1, so have had about the same amount of playing time as you, but had around 15 posts as of that point. Now, I realize that many people may not work on a computer all day, so may not be able to post as much. Counting day 2 only, 270~280 posts among 20 players, you were around 10 posts behind the average. I consider that to be low post count.
BB:
You had i think about 20 posts when I counted, where only one post had any substantial discussion, and only 6 posts had more than a single line of text (many of your posts seem content-free or directly off topic/joking/stating the obvious). Contrast this with 12 or so posts by WLC, where 7 (over half) of them contain real content that ties him down to specific suspicions and opinions.
This amounts to saying:BB - case in point wrote:I think:
Nikanor is either scum or fakeclaiming.
&
ToastyToad seems sincere in his jailkeeping, or gambiting scum ...
But both are being active and I want to focus on someone who is laying in the background X_X.
A is lying or not lying. And B is not lying or is lying. And draws attention to an issue that you apparently didn't want to focus on. I think this highlights the content-less post and the fence sitting. And this is also your second longest/wordiest post.
Inhim, I'm curious, what is your reasoning for putting me on your baddie list?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Your argument here boils down to:CJ wrote:This is terrible logic. You are basing assumptions about whether people are town or scum, (here, tans is town, and you list lists vezok as scum) based on your presumed knowledge of Andrius alignment which has not yet revealed and I strongly believe to be town. This means your chaining lynches and clearing other people for no apparent reason based on your own read which is probably incorrect.
It's illogical to draw conclusions based on your own reads.
If you genuinely believe this, then I really don't know what to say. Obviously, if I'm wrong about Andy, then everything that is dependent on that assumption is no longer valid.
I don't understand...is this a joke?Inhim wrote:I don't really read your posts, I just make lists.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Summary (for inhim): I agree with Muffin. I want BB to stop fence sitting and actually commit to suspicion list/vote.
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Muffin, there also suspicion based on his attack on Mr. S based on the Entity claim gambit. This was also similarly debunked (Friend's criticism there ignored that in the first post where WLC voted Mr. S, he also claimed to doubt the claim, which turned out to be a gambit anyway).Muffin wrote:So far all I've seen said about WLC-as-scum is that he's not very active and ooba thought he was CR. I don't even think this is an exaggeration, either - that's all I've seen people say about WLC.
++ this.Not to mention, if Apok is red and he's lynched, red-scum are going to have to start seriously cult-hunting (including NKs) if they want any chance of winning. Ditto for whoever's doing the day kills.
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BB:
Who exactly do you suggest we focus on? As you have no vote history and have expressed no suspicions, other than Nik's fake gambit was full of holes and you think Nik and Toast are town, it feels like you're just trying to coast along under the radar.But both are being active and I want to focus on someone who is laying in the background X_X.
I still think for all the posts you've made, there is almost no content beyond token questions (with no follow up) and off-topic/joke posts. Feels very active lurk-y to me.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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CJ - (Ludi?) wrote:I never dodged any question. We basically started and drove the wagon on ooba on circumstances that legitimatelylooked like cult to us. We were more than happy to vote for him the entirety of day one, but only shifted onto you after the first lynch because we had suspicion of you and we thought you had a higher chance of flipping cult recruiter. Once I realized your wagon was going nowhere, with only our vote on it, I made to shift back to ooba who I had thought was cult the entire first day.
Italics added for emphasis. Also this:
Tar wrote:I'll be around to lay out the case onToast and ooba(oh yeah, there's a case there) in a bit.
(Only potential issue with the ooba wagon is that I'm pretty sure given his play so farooba is Mafia, not Cult.)
Tar wrote:Now, why does ooba want us to focus exclusively on one scumgroup D1? Because he's scum from the other faction (Mafia) and wants to a) buy a pass for not hunting other members of his faction and b) potentially buy his faction a free pass into lategame.
Dogpile on ooba, everyone, he's not town. We can find the Cult Recruiter with the second lynch, kay?
Tar wrote:Apparently he wasn't listening to my lecture about "ooba might be scum, but we can lynch him tomorrow becauseHIS BEHAVIOR SUGGESTS MAFIAAND I WANT TO LYNCH THE CULT LEADER TODAY AND THAT CULT LEADER IS PROBABLY APOK".
You certainly drove the wagon on ooba, but it was on basis of him being mafia, not on basis of CR. Now you're claiming you initiated the ooba wagon on basis of hunting CR from the get-go, and still dodging the fact that you attempted to hammer when ooba had clearly requested the chance to make a defense before hammering him. Especially considering you attempted to hammer him (in posts 677 & 678) immediately after inHim posted this.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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I don't see apok as cult, but I'm pretty convinced WLC is not scum, and I largely think Muffin and Mr. S have been well reasoned so far, sounvote, vote: apok
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Tans: from the discussion, great plan except you're teaming up with Andy, who is scum. I guess he DOES have a vested interest in blocking cult so whatevs. Since I apparently got on the mason block's baddie list (excluding muffin?) for not loving Nik's crazy or because inhim didn't want to read my posts...
My list (for all the good it will do) was already conveniently posted, but most likely scums are:
BB (cult)
Andy (mafia)
CJ (mafia)
unvote
BB, I don't really see you as doing anything pro town or pro mafia. I don't see you as having done anything really all game. That feels like cult to me. Youstillhaven't voted or stated any suspicions or scum hunted in any way.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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CJ: vezok is not in my top 3 scum picks. His posts do read more as mafia to me than as cult or town, though his dearth of posts recently make it hard for me to confirm or reject my initial reads (as it was v/la, I don't necessarily see this as a tell either way).ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Tans: Once you decide on your three targets, if there are any probMafia among them, I'd like to request that you have Andy target the player most likely to be cult rather than a probMafia.
Vezok: Did you think oversoul was cult or mafia when you decided to target him?ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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I agree with Toast here. Hiplop's criticism doesn't make sense. Oversoul is not confirmed town, and certainly wasn't as of end of D1. There wouldn't be anything inherently wrong with delaying him. Nik has it right; Vezok's pick is suspect mainly because he never mentioned or hinted at being suspicious of oversoul.Toast wrote:Why is Oversoul a bad target again? OH WAIT HE'S NOTShowT: 9/6.5/0
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I think the idea is that, if you publicly pick 3 players to block, and mafia know who the 3 are, unless you manage to pick all the mafia players, then they will choose a non-blocked mafioso to make the kill. To compound that, if at least one of {Andy, Toast} is mafia, then he can pretend to block his target, but actually let the target take actions with town none the wiser, and maybe even make the kill himself.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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As I trust Tans and Toast, I would suggest rather than publicly coordinating who exactly you are targeting, instead you assign Andy's target, and maybe Toast's target, but not to announce your target. Furthermore, if we manage to lynch CR, then consider assigning Andy and Toast secondary targets to block based on likelihood of mafia, rather than likelihood of cult.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Muffin is right again. Unless Andy has two votes, GW still has a chance to claim. Anyone hammering before the claim and before tans confirms who Toast and Andy should target (or at least confirms the "list") is doing a huge disservice to the town.
Also, to Andy's point, a 3-man list without any explicit coordination in targeting and still expecting Toast, Andy, and Tans tonotdouble target is somewhat implausible.
Was proposed already, but Tans should def not nail down his target to just WLC or just any one player; he should pick from a list of players that he can think for himself and determine, while at the same time assigning Toast/Andy to pick from a public, non-overlapping list of players (can be list of 1), guaranteeing that there is no overlap as only Tans would have to pick carefully, while Andy and Toast would be picking from mutually exclusive lists. This completely avoids all the disadvantages of a "you target A, you target B" plan, while guaranteeing no overlap, and still doesn't reveal to scum who exactly is targeted. It also locks in Andy and Toast against future potential lies as scum about their night actions.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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This is BAD logic. Correction: If he were town who jk'd me because he thought I was a day cop, he would have KNOW I was lying when I claimed he wasn't town. Thus he would have KNOWN I was a liar, and should (and did) call me out on it.If he were town who jk'd me because he thought I was a day cop, he would have assumed that I got my 'result' on him during the day, not at night.
Nik you are incorrectly assuming he called you a liarbecause of an impossible night actionwhen in fact he called you a liarbecause of an impossible claimed result on a claimed day cop action. Please try to use logic logically.
BB: You're flailing. I also don't like how you basically went what...10 days of posting a reasonable post count, but not actually saying anything, while I and others continued to call you out on it, then when you finally do post stuff, it's scummy as all heck, and phrased in a way that it sounds like another fake claim gambit (and youknowhow I feel about those).
Nik: I agree town doesn't likely have 3 role blocks. Rather than targeting Toast, you should be looking at Andy, who is better than 99% likely to be mafia, as the non town RB. Also, Tans claimed to have copied Andy's power as a temporary copy, so that's one less block in town hands than your game balance comment would imply.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Here's where you are misreading Nik:Toast in 943 In Context wrote:THIS IS BULLSHIT FOR MULTIPLE REASONS.
NIKANOR IS COPYING THE SCUM-GAMBIT FATE PULLED IN FIRE EMBLEM MAFIA
I'm Star Sapphire, JAILKEEPER.
I FUCKING JAILKEPT Nikanor last night
That means
1) He couldn't have gotten a result on me
2) I'm too hot to not be in this game
3) Nikanor may have been the target of a kill, but he also had bulletproof. CALLING EVIL CULT OF FAKE MASONS
So don't you guys dare even think this isn't a one on one. Lynch nikanor or lynch me.
Vote:Nikanor
1) He couldn't have gotten a result on meat night because he was blocked
Here is what he's actually saying:
1) He couldn't have gotten a result on meduring the day because I am town so I know he's lying
You see how your incorrect assumption is leadingyouto believe there is a logical contradiction? That's why you shouldn't make unfounded assumptions.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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BB: You played for 8+ days of posting without reading through the game, and the whole time you ignored or flamed people that called out out for fence sitting and being non-committal. You only started posting content after multiple players stated that it is a cult characteristic to start posting more and being active.
You tried to setup multiple haphazard cult accusations, including against claimed WL's that are known to be non CR, and at most one of whom might be a recruit (who wouldn't be worth targeting). So yes, I think you are very likely to be cult. You've done nothing to change that.
BTW, the uncultable versus unrecruitable thing happened day 2, after you joined and started posting, so claiming you were unaware of it until now is really stretching plausibility.
Andy: Dana didn't publishly state that. Oversoul said he PMed the mod and was confirmed they are essentially the same thing.Oversoul wrote:Kast, I pmed the mod about the difference between Uncultable and Unrecruitable and they said the difference was the wording.
They wouldn't elaborate on that so I am going to say that the words are interchanageable.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Grammar fail me now!You only started posting content after multiple players stated that it is a cult characteristic to start posting more and being active.
You only started posting content after multiple players stated that it is a cult characteristic to sit back and actively lurk/keep their head down. Obviously, after your behavior was called out sufficiently, you decided to start posting more and being more active so as not to give off those cult scumtells.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Is this a typo oversoul? I did not claim this. Did you mean to type Toast?Oversoul wrote:Kast is a Jailkeeper which isn't only a roleblocker
I think the main reason GW wasn't lynched earlier is (as muff already pointed out) that he's likely mafia, not CR. Don't think this really matters at this point though...Was hoping for more coordination, but Andy, since you're probably mafia blocker, I strongly suggest you let me follow BB tonight. I'm fairly sure he's CR. It's still in your best interest even if you are mafia.
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This is the real Kast back from V/LA, though won't be around over the weekend. I'm sort of caught up and my brother filled me in on what's been going on. I think he is still interested in reading along and posting.
Mr.S wrote:@tanstalas: How come you no say who you jailkept last Night?
I think I might know why that is. Last night we got a mod PM essentially stating that our powers were taken away. Your claim seems to imply you can either use a stolen power OR steal another power. So I'd like to amend the question to:
@tanstalas:WTF did you steal our powers instead of blocking your suspected CR?
@BB-
Can't help you; I essentially got blocked when my powers were taken.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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@Tans-
Wondering if this is a mod error and only one of us were supposed to get this,
Doubt it's an error on my side, I asked a few questions about the PM already and got responses (hence why I realized it was permanent). You should check if it was an error on your side.
both of us losing our powers in the same night seems very anti-town
Firstly, if there is a scum ability to permanently erase a player's power each night, then we should DEFINITELY start with lots of town PRs and likely have some redundancy built in.
Secondly, two possibilities immediately come to mind if this is a result of a night power:
-We have a Doubler in this game who Doubled scum (if there *is* a town Doubler, then this possibility becomes extremely likely)
-Vezokpiraka claimed a delay power, so if Oversoul is the power-stealer/eraser he may have targeted either you or me on N1 and it got delayed until N2.
@BB-
Yes, except there was some flavor that implied it was temporary. Mod clarification stated that the flavor was just flavor.
I have a town read on Tans, so I'm guessing he's legit. His reaction actually makes more sense with what he's claiming now (and fits with my own annoyance at going from PR -> VT).ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Also, disagree with this:
It's entirely possible that mods changed things up and made Kilowog a Doubler AND that he doubled a scum member last night. (Incidentally, this would also mean the mods made a *good* change from the previous game in which town abilities only worked on town and resulted in town having something like 7 or 8 effective cops).Motivator will come from the Blue Corps.
Like last time.
-If anyone else got a PM that they lost all their powers, now might be a good time to share it. There's also a possibility that a DEAD player might have had their powers erased and didn't have a chance to claim (also if it's a mafia ability, there's a chance it hit a Black Lantern who might not want to claim).ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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Kast 2.0 here. Confirm what Kast said before. Agree with theTOWNread on Tans. Kast didn't post this but I told him I still suspect BB; he knew we were going to follow him.
Also, EITHER Oversoul can't be delayed power stealer, OR Toast must be his scum buddy. More likely, we have a doubler (drill sergeant?) and it was doubled...I think seeing who Peregrinne trusted is the best lead for *mafia*, but I'm much more inclined to go after CR.
will post list in a second.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Kast tl;dr
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- Kasttracked N1
- Andriuswas power stolen N1
- Candle Jack
- WeyounsLastClone
- Blackberry
- hiplopWL
- Mr. Subliminal
- ToastyToastJK'ed Nik N1
- vezokpiraka* Delayed OS N1
- tanstalasStole Andy N1
- NikanorWL
- zMuffinManWL
- inHimshalibe
- Oversoul* was delayed N1
All players in strike objectively cannot be CR since we know they took other actions night 1, or we know they were blocked, or we know they started as WLs.
Since we KNOW who was the N1 recruit, we can objectively eliminate all confirmed pairings (cult would have to coordinate for the pairings to be faked).
This leaves the onlypossibleOS (ordered based on my opinion of likelihood):
- Blackberry
- WeyounsLastClone
- Mr. Subliminal
- Candle Jack
- inHimshalibe
Of the 5, I'm most inclined to suspect BB as he knew he was going to be tracked, or WLC who knew he was going to be blocked. inhim is least likely CR due to miller claim.
Also, BB, if this isn't just a ploy where you are intentionally abusing logic and faking being too lazy to read, then I will be very surprised. And also very disappointed in human intellect.
Tans claimed he power stole/copied RB from Andy. That means he isn't conflicted with Toast.
*Note that BB's logic for excluding vezok from cult is wrong. Vezok is not cult because OS confirmed the delay, and they can't both be cult. Not because OS is mafia, but because objectively, they cannot be coordinating as cult since we know nopoint was cult.
*His argument actually works to prove OS is not cult recruiter since OS was delayed, and even if vezok is scum, he can't also cult coordinating with OS.
Agree with Mr. S's analysis on Day kill: we know it happened D2. Also, did anyone else notice that nopoint's 1 shot BP was striken out? I'm betting he was the Day 1 indigo target.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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Also, BB, why don't you read the nopoint *incontext*. WLC vote never went above 5 votes, never anywhere near actual lynch despite a lot of empty talk. Nopoint could have easily been distancing, as he never expressed any suspicion of WLC day 1.
That said, I'd be happy with lynching BB or WLC; if Mr. S is CR then he was blocked last night and Andy (scum or otherwise) is likely to continue blocking him.
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O: 0/3.5/0
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Mr. S, I tracked Tans night 1 and saw he targeted Andy. I soft claimed this fairly early Day 2. I also hid a hard breadcrumb to this effect in my first post of the game (this is Kast 2, my first post was my first post of D2). I also stupidly put my character name in the same post so I didn't want to point that out unless we were doing a name claim as well. I'll point it out if necessary.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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BB, you're right; you are unlikely to be both CRANDalso perma-block/stealer. This was NOT a requirement for being suspicious of you. there are tells indicating you are scum, some are mafia tells, and some are CR tells, but there are NO townie tells. Not sure why you bring that up as an objection when it is immaterial.
BTW, if you always play like XYZ style as town, and you are aware of this, then I don't see what is to stop you from playing in XYZ style as scum and trying to use that as meta proof that you are town. It could be valid if it was behavior you were UN-aware of, but if you're smart enough to recognize your play style, then I imagine you're smart enough to adapt. Though you are free to prove me wrong there...
Toast, yes I'm trying to be objective so I included myself. I assumed it was clear Day 2 why I trusted tans so strongly combining my soft bread crumbs and suspicion of Andy. As above post, I can further back up my claim with a hard breadcrumb as needed.ShowT: 9/6.5/0
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