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[MichelSableheart]

Hello everyone, reporting in.

I have quite a bit of reading to do, a relevant post will follow when I've read everything. I hope to have read (not studied) all relevant threads tomorrow evening. In the meantime, if there are any questions you want me to answer, actions you want me to take, or if there's anything else I should be aware of, feel free to post so.

[MichelSableheart]

It seems I have to appologize. I promised to have read this entire thread this evening. I have now, at 10 minutes to midnight. And I'm tired. I'm affraid there won't be much relevant in this post, especially because I am not sure I've read the last couple of pages thoroughly.

By far the most important thing to have happened thus far seems to be Seraphim dying. It seems to me that a wealth of information can be found there. Because of this, I'm planning to do a thorough analysis of that event when I'm more awake.

In preparation for the analysis, I would love to see a single question answered. Ren Hoek, can you please be so kind to tell me why you selfvoted? What did you hope to accomplish?

[MichelSableheart]

I've promised a thorough analysis of the circumstances surrounding the dead of Seraphim.

I'm going to start of with the assumption that Goatrevolt is either mafia or town. In the flavour, I see no indication whatsoever for the presence of neutrals. Only one kill happened day 1, when we didn't have any mechanics that could stop a kill, so an SK is definately out.

If Gr is town, He chose to drive from scotmany to seraphim. However, the mafia did not know whom he chose as his busdrive targets. I'll use these percentages as an estimation of the chance that each target was chosen. I believe they roughly match the chances in Adel's plan (the CD is most important, so he is most likely busdriven. The CEO is the other target that needs to be protected. The drive almost certainly goes to an account executive, with those being most scummy being the most likely targets), at least enough to get an acceptable estimate of what the scum could expect to happen.

First target:
scotmany 75%
Faerielord 25%

Second target:
Ren Hoek 30%
Seraphim 30%
crywolf 10%
curiouskarmadog 10%
nuwen 10%
somebody else 10%

(still under the assumption that Gr is town) Because seraphim died, we know that the mafia tried to kill scotmany.

The first player I'm going to evaluate is scotmany. If he is scum, trying to kill Faerielord would simply have been a superiour plan then trying to kill scotmany. The chance of a scummember dying are much, much smaller (FL is town after all). The only reason for mafia I can think of to try to kill scotmany in this situation is if they want to get him confirmed innocent through a busdriver claim. But with the possibility that the busdriver tries to protect FaerieLord around, I don't think that is a risk mafia would be willing to take. Therefore, if Gr is town, then scotmany must be town too.

The second player to evaluate is Ren Hoek. Assuming he is scum, I believe four things could happen when the scum tried to kill scotmany. The first possibility is that scotmany would die, and as a result, Ren Hoek would be lynched. This would be acceptable to scum. The town loses it's most important powerrole in exchange for a scum. The second possibilitity is that the kill is busdriven from scotmany to Ren Hoek. This would be horrible for scum. Not only do they lose a scummember, but the town gains an extra lynch with the knowledge that RH was scum! The third possibility is that the kill is redirected to someone on the RH wagon. That would be wonderful for scum, as it would virtually clear Ren Hoek. Finally, the kill can be redirected to someone who is not on the RH wagon. This would lead to a kill and a lynch of Ren Hoek. This would be slightly worse then trying to kill someone else, where the mafia at least would have had the choice who died.
Scotmany dies. Ren Hoek lynched. chance 25%. result: acceptable
Ren Hoek dies. Chance .75 x .3 = 22.5%. result: horrible
Seraphim dies. Chance 22.5%. result: wonderful
crywolf/ckd/nuwen dies. Ren Hoek lynched. chance 3 x .075 = 22.5%. result: bad.
somebody else dies. chance 7.5%. result: difficult to evaluate.
Basically, the chances of seraphim dying and Ren Hoek dying cancel each other out, and the chances of Scotmany dying and somebody off the wagon dying cancel each other out. All other nightkills had a worse expectancy for RH scum. The chance of scotmany dying would be smaller (targeting Seraphim, for instance, only gives a 22.5% chance of scotmany dying given the assumptions above), and the chance of Ren Hoek becoming "confirmed innocent" would be nonexistant. If Gr is town, Ren Hoek can very well be scum. Especially considering that the possibility of him becoming "confirmed" only exist after he selfvoted, and that he was aware of that. For the next couple of paragraphs, I'm going to assume that Ren Hoek is Town though.

For Crywolf, CKD or Nuwen, scum, targeting scotmany results in the following chances:
Scotmany dies, Ren Hoek lynched: 25%
scum dies: .75 x .10 = 7.5%
Ren Hoek dies: 22.5%
Somebody else dies: 45%
Targeting Seraphim OTOH, results in the following chances:
Seraphim dies: 70%
Scotmany dies, Ren Hoek lynched: 22.5%
FaerieLord dies, Ren Hoek lynched: 7.5%
scum dies: 0%
It seems to me that targeting seraphim with the kill would be better for scum in this case. The chance of a powerrole dying is better, the chance of the primary lynch target dying (rather then being lynched) is nonexistant, and the chance of scum dying is zero. I believe it is highly unlikely that crywolf, CKD or Nuwen are scum if Goatrevolt and Ren Hoek are town.

For everybody else, roughly the same reasoning applies, except that they don't run a small risk of scum dying through a busdrive. Still though, the chance of killing the primary lynchtarget, plus the fact that the chance of killing a powerrole is smaller, would make Seraphim a better kill target then scotmany. The kill of scotmany doesn't make much sense there.

Assuming that Goatrevolt is town, the kill of scotmany makes by far the most sense if Ren Hoek is scum. It is the optimal kill for mafia if he is scum, whereas there are better kills for mafia available when he is town.

Now, I'm going to drop all previous assumptions and assume that Goatrevolt is scum. Somebody other then goatrevolt would have needed to make the kill, but it is a possibility. This changes the situation completely. First of all, the only thing we know for sure is that Goatrevolt drove from scotmany to somebody else. That somebody else could be Seraphim, we don't know for sure. Anyway, in this case, the mafia knew for sure that Seraphim would die. They did not attempt to kill scotmany, they wanted to kill seraphim. Rereading seraphim, I see absolutely no reason why seraphim in particular would be threatening to the scum. He had been away a couple of days when the kill happened. He was no threat to anybody whatsoever. The only result of that kill was that three people got virtually confirmed: goatrevolt, scotmany, and Ren Hoek. I don't think the mafia could have been certain enough that goatrevolt was tracked to make the kill for that reason alone. I believe that the mafia wanted to "confirm" either scotmany or Ren Hoek. Out of the two, I believe that Ren Hoek is much more likely. First of all, he was in danger of being lynched, so the kill basically safed him. Secondly, he was cleared mainly because he was at L-1, which in turn was a direct result of the fact that he selfvoted. He actually took actions to allow the kill of seraphim to clear him. And thirdly, Goatrevolt's (who we are assuming is scum) very first post after the kill claimed that Ren Hoek was cleared. If Goatrevolt is scum, Ren Hoek is almost certainly scum in my opinion.

Conclusions:

If Goatrevolt is town, then scotmany is town.
If Goatrevolt is town, and Ren Hoek is town, then crywolf, CKD and nuwen are all very likely town.
If Goatrevolt is town, and Ren Hoek is town, then everybody else is likely town.
Therefore, if Goatrevolt is town, Ren Hoek is very likely scum.
If Goatrevolt is scum, Ren Hoek is very likely scum.
Ren Hoek is very likely scum.

Unvote

Vote: Ren Hoek

[MichelSableheart]

At the point of the game day 1 working hours had been going on for 5 days. The wagon was on L-2 without Ren, but I'm not used to seeing quicklynching wagons on this site. I'm not sure it's a great assumption to think that the scum was assuming to be stuck in the voting position it was currently in to make the nightkill if Ren would be scum. Seems like would be more credible to see if the position changes rather than playing incredibly risky.

I'm not entirely sure what you are saying here. According to gamerule 27d, the kill was submitted somewhere between 0 and 24 hours before it was posted in the thread. Ren Hoek was placed at L-1 5.5 hours before the kill happened. Ren Hoek was placed at L-2 12 hours before the kill happened. He was placed at L-3 21 hours before the kill, and at L-4 23 hours before the kill. At the moment the kill was submitted, the bandwagon definately was on full speed, and quite likely at either L-2 or L-1. I hope this answers your concerns, if not, please explain more clearly what you mean.

Basically, the chances of seraphim dying and Ren Hoek dying cancel each other out, and the chances of Scotmany dying and somebody off the wagon dying cancel each other out.

what are you saying here? "Wonderful 22,5%" and "horrible 22,5%" cancel each other out, 25% "acceptable" and 22,5% bad cancel each other out, plus the rest difficult to evaluate stuff?
What does "canceling out" mean in this context and scum psychology and stuff?
I just see that your percentages put the chances of ren dying by way the nightkill to 70%.
Without the selfvote, the chances of him dying because of the nk are, if we accept your percentages, 22,5% (he also still gets some credibility from theory of "scum not afraid of getting busdriven").
It would be just very suicidal very early, unusual scumplay.

I am trying to evaluate how good a kill of scotmany is for scum given that Ren Hoek is scum. If the result of your action is either very good, or very bad, with equal chances, then the two cancel each other out, and the overall expectancy of the action would be neutral. I conclude that if Ren Hoek is scum, trying to kill scotmany has a neutral expectancy for scum, and that for all other actions, the expectancy for scum is worse. This because a lynch of Ren Hoek was at that point in time almost guaranteed.

@MS:
The postulate that GR is scum with Ren assumes scum wouldn't mind confirming the scotmany in the process (unless you actually think all are scum?). In your calculations you deem the CD a very important powerrole, important enough that the demise of Ren is acceptable if scotmany is killed. Do you think there's contradiction in that, especially when in that scenario scum could have killed scotmany without killing Ren in the process if Ren hadn't selfvoted?

Goatrevolt scum would be "confirmed innocent" in a creative team with Yosarian2. I believe that in that position, he has enough influence to neutralize most powerroles that are dangerous to the scum.

Killing scotmany would almost certainly, though not immediately, lead to a lynch on Ren Hoek. That is acceptable, for scum, but getting two scummembers "confirmed innocent" just seems better.

[MichelSableheart]

Apologies for the long post. Catching up to two new pages is a lot of work, and I know that haven't comfortably studied the last couple of pages of discussion. To those in roughly the same situation, sorry for adding another long post to the list.

I was saying that very early D1 wagons, even if large, don't usually lead quicklynch on this site, and your analysis was from the pov that Ren-scum would have in any case had to choose the kill in this moment. I was thinking wouldn't it be likelier for Ren-scum to want to wait if a less potentially catastrophic moment comes, if not, then make the 70% suicide play later. The wagon formed in a couple of very early days after all.

I wasn't talking about a quicklynch on Ren Hoek, I was talking about an eventual lynch on Ren Hoek. If scum Ren Hoek decided to take the risk of lynching scotmany, that was the moment to do it. Ren was at L-1, and unlikely to be lynched soon, precisely because of that reluctance to quicklynch you mention. The kill of scotmany is only good for Ren if he is at L-1, and only if he isn't lynched in the proces. Later in the game, he can't be guaranteed to be at L-1 without being lynched for the time it could take the kill to resolve.

Michel, you make some wild assumptions that aren't necessarily accurate.

I'm going to have to politely disagree with this.

You assume the scum ran through all those calculations when determining their kill, and then picked one that was the best possible for them.

I do not believe I've made this assumption. I assumed that the mafia was more likely to make the kill that's better for them, and therefore, that if a kill is made that is not optimal for a certain player as mafia, that player is less likely to be scum.

Secondly, you assume that the mafia uses the same calculations you do.

I have explained why I made these calculations. AFAIK, they are based on solid assumptions and are mathematically correct. I believe they are solid enough to determine optimal play for mafia. I am completely unsure where I use the assumption that the mafia uses the same calculations. Can you please point out the part in my reasoning proces where I use that assumption?

Thirdly, you start from the assumption Ren is scum and then say "trying to kill scot is the best kill for Ren scum." You're starting with the conclusion you're trying to prove. Trying to kill scot might have been the best play for other players as well.

You are incorrect there. When I assumed that Ren is scum, all I was trying to prove was that "trying to kill scot is the best kill for Ren scum.". That is definately not the conclusion I started with.

Jesus Christ MS brings math….not pretending to understand any of that post. To me there seems to be a ton of assumptions in it.

Most of those assumptions are to be able to systematically investigate each possibility. Assume that Goatrevolt is town, then ... Assume that Goatrevolt is scum, then ...

He also makes the assumption that scum would be totally fine with letting Ren die.

Not true. When considering the possibility that Ren is scum, I called the situation that scumkill is redirected to Ren horrible. I assumed that the scum would be fine with seeing Ren lynched immediately, as in that situation, he would probably be lynched eventually.

He also ignores the situation where scum wanted to get rid of two town roles with one kill.

Good point, but not completely true. In my assumption that Ren is town, I should have included the possibility that the scumkill would be redirected from Scotmany to someone not on the Ren Hoek wagon. I'm not sure what difference that makes. I'll redo the calculation when I have the time. Besides that, though, the possibility that Ren Hoek is lynched is listed where appropriate.

I don't like Michel's vote on Ren at all. He simply pulls out a lot of calculations and assumptions, none of which are concrete.

Have you understood my reasoning? If you did, I would really like to know what part you don't consider concrete. I have explained each calculation and each assumption.

Eh...I was pretty sure Ren was going to be lynched yesterday. I think the only thing that prevented it was Adel's speedlynch on FL; if it wasn't for then, I think Ren would almost certanly have gotten lynched yesterday.

Sorry Yos, but I have to disagree with this. After Seraphim got lynched, a Ren Hoek wasn't going to happen. Due to his selfvote and the claimed busdrive, it looked like scum were trying to get him lynched (mainly because he suggested scum were trying to do exactly that). To most players, this confirmed him as innocent. Before that kill, he was certainly going to be the lynch though.

But SensFan you've been posting all over the site.

I am assuming that the rest of the site doesn't have about six pages with massive posts he hasn't read yet.

[MichelSableheart]

Everyone needs to chime in now and say if they think it was obvious that I was going to give Goat-Yos Bulletproof/Tracker.

It seemed the most logical choice to me.

He has been posting elsewhere on a REGULAR BASIS, right? Why assume that he has not read all of 6 pages with massive posts? Is that what he told you in the QT? That he hasn't read the last 6 pages?

No, he didn't tell me that. I assumed because I find it very bad taste to read the thread and not post. Being intentionally inactive is behaviour that is, in my opinion, unacceptable. Therefore, if you don't post, I'll assume that you haven't looked at the thread at all.

Now that I'm answering your question though, you can answer the question you ignored before. Can you please explain why you selfvoted, or give the postnumber where you explained that?

I also disagree with MichelSableheart's maths post. I also can't see scum wading through a lot of probability before making their kill. We certainly have no reason to call their play optimal given that the targeted scot rather than attempting a reverse busdrive.

Again, I don't expect the scum to wade through probability before making the kill. I personally waded through probability to be able to better evaluate the different possibilities. I think it's likely that scum reasoning was more like "the busdriver can protect either scot or FaerieLord, scot is more important, and therefore more likely to be protected." without actual percentages.

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Either I completely fail at making myself understood, I completely fail at understanding the precise arguments against my post, other players don't understand that by using math I can compare exact numbers rather then having to go by vague wordings, or the other players don't understand that assumptions are necessary to formally investigate multiple possibilities.

Anyway, I'm going to try to rewrite that post, this time around without the many difficult concepts. See my upcoming post.

[MichelSableheart]

This post will not analyse things as thorougly as the previous one, as I won't be using the exact numbers to make comparisons.

Goatrevolt is either town or scum. I'm going to look at the possibility that Goatrevolt is town first, as most players seem to believe that is the case. Later on in this post, I'll look at the possibility that Goatrevolt is scum.

If Goatrevolt is town, the kill of Scotmany is a strange action for scum to make. I'm going to look at each player in turn to see if that kill is logical if they are scum.

It is extremely unlikely that Scotmany scum would take the risk that the busdriver protects FaerieLord. As scum, he would be in too good a position to put his life at stake in that way.

If the busdriver protects FaerieLord, killing Scotmany would be extremely good for crywolf if she is scum. It would result in the dead of the most important powerrole, and it would guarantee an immediate lynch or Ren Hoek. However, when she attempts to kill scotmany, she takes 3 serious risks. First of all, the kill can be redirected to herself, which would mean killing a mafia member. Secondly, the kill can be redirected to Ren Hoek, which would mean the most likely lynch target would die rather then be lynched. Or the kill could be redirected to Seraphim, where it wouldn't accomplish much at all. It is very likely that the kill will be redirected, and the most likely redirection targets are bad kill targets for scum. There are better possibilities for scum available. For example, they could try to kill Seraphim in the hope of being driven back to Scot or FaerieLord. This doesn't run the risk of killing scum or Ren Hoek. Or they could try to kill FaerieLord, who is much less likely to be protected by the busdriver. The chance of killing a powerrole would be much higher (though the powerrole would be comparable weaker), and the chance of bad redirections decreases enormously. Because of the existance of better kill targets, killing Scotmany doesn't make much sense for Crywolf.

For CKD and Nuwen, the reasoning is exactly the same as for Crywolf. For neither of them does it make much sense to try and kill Scotmany.

For vollkan, killing Scotmany makes slightly more sense. After all, he doesn't really run the risk of seeing the kill redirected to himself. However, seeing the kill redirected to Ren Hoek would be horrible. Again, it makes more sense to try to kill faerielord because of the lower chance of busdriver protection, or to kill one of the account executives who isn't on the Ren Hoek wagon, in the hope of being redirected to a powerrole. Trying to kill scotmany is a strange choice.

For all players other then Ren Hoek, an argument can be made comparable to vollkan's. For none of them does killing Scotmany make much sense.

However, if Ren Hoek is scum, the situation changes drastically. Ren Hoek could reasonably expect to be lynched eventually, whereas a quicklynch was unlikely. After selfvoting to L-1, he could expect to still be alive when the kill would resolve. This means that if the kill was redirected to Seraphim, he could point out that he was at L-1, at the risk of being lynched if the kill succeeded, and only be alive through a lucky busdrive. This would probably prevent his lynch for the next couple of days, a great result for him. A different possibility that could happen is that the busdriver protected FaerieLord. This would mean that the town loses it's most important member, and that the day ends in a lynch of Ren Hoek now, with the last vote being a selfvote, rather then ending in a lynch of Ren Hoek after about 10 more RL days of information about who wanted to see scum Ren lynched. That result would still be good for scum. Of course, there is the possibility that Ren Hoek dies, giving the town the chance to try to lynch a second scum. That would be extremely bad for scum. The chance of that happening is comparable to the chance of Seraphim getting killed, which is an extremely good scenario for scum. Of course, the kill can also be redirected to someone else, but this either means that the day ends in a lynch now, or it means that Ren Hoek can play the "lucky safe through busdrive" card. Overall, killing Scotmany is likely to have a good result for scum if Ren Hoek is one of them. All other kill choices are worse for the scum, as they aren't as likely to kill scotmany (the chance of hitting the correct busdrive target aren't that great), and they can't safe Ren Hoek from being lynched.

Overall, if Goatrevolt is town, then the kill of Scotmany makes the most sense if Ren Hoek is scum.

--------------------------------
What concerns me far more, however, is the possibility that Goatrevolt and Ren Hoek are scum together, and that they set up the kill to safe Ren Hoek from being lynched.

Ren Hoek was only safed from being lynched when the kill resolved because of the busdrive. However, 12 hours earlier, Ren Hoek was at L-3 and not at risk of being lynched as a result from the kill at all. At that point in time, Ren Hoek made post #301, making sure that SensFan voted him, then he selfvoted. The only reason why Ren Hoek was at risk of being lynched when the kill resolved was because of his own actions.

Here, I would like to point out Goatrevolt's post #312, which explicitly asks for a votecount, which would make it extremely clear that Ren Hoek is in danger of being lynched now.

Next, the kill resolves, safing Ren Hoek only because of a lucky busdrive... chosen by Goatrevolt and therefore known to the mafia if Goatrevolt is scum.

In the very first post he makes after the kill (#323), Ren Hoek babbles about how he believed to be at L-1, and how lucky he is that the mafia miscounted just like he did. This has two results. First of all, everybody becomes aware of the possibility that mafia tried to kill two birds with one stone (nightkill + Ren Hoek lynched), and secondly, it forces the other players to point out that Ren Hoek is only alive because Seraphim was voting for him. He brings two important points for proving him "confirmed innocent" to the attention of the town while making it seem like he doesn't have any idea what he's talking about.

So what is the very first post that Goatrevolt makes after the kill? #346, in which he mentions a strong reason to believe Ren Hoek to be town.

Ren Hoek is only seen as "confirmed pro-town" because Goatrevolt and Ren Hoek worked together perfectly to make it appear so. If Goatrevolt is scum, then Ren Hoek being scum with him would explain what happened perfectly.

---------------------------------
I have to conclude that:
If Goatrevolt is town, things make most sense if Ren Hoek is scum.
If Goatrevolt is scum, things make perfect sense if Ren Hoek is also scum.
Therefore, I believe it is highly likely that Ren Hoek is scum.

[MichelSableheart]

Have you ever considered that the scum targeted scotmany, knowing that he'd be busdriven with a player that a townie might consider scummy? Have you considered that the scum might have made sure that all the main suspects were townies?

Have you considered that the scum may not be that clever, and made no calculations whatsoever, and simply felt safe enough that they wouldn't be a bus driving target?

Yes, I discuss the possibility of the kill being redirected to you or Seraphim for a reason.

Aren't you doing a lot of work to merely demonstrate that Goatrevolt's alignment is not diagnostic of mine, and you just plain think I'm scum regardless of Goatrevolt?

No, because the reasoning in the two cases is completely different.

@Goat: My theory isn't that you were trying to safe him from being lynched, my theory is that you were trying to make him seem "confirmed pro-town". In order for this to happen, Ren had to be at L-1 when the kill was submitted, otherwise he wasn't in "danger" of being lynched when the kill resolved.

I don't believe there was much danger of a quicklynch at all. Most of the players in this game are reasonably experienced. They know that getting information out of a day is important, and therefore that it is usually not a good idea to quicklynch. As an example of this, I would like to point to post 19 of the quicktopic Adel posted (between her and Sensfan) where he mentions he wants to get more information out of this day.

And the number of hoops you had to jump through was too high? I've seen you jump through each of those hoops in turn.

Do you have any other suspects besides Ren?

At this point, unfortunately, no. I've read the thread once to get a feel for what's going on, but I haven't read it thoroughly. I haven't had the time yet to look at the cases being made in detail, or to take a close look at different players. I have used the time I had available after reading the thread to focus on my main suspect after the initial read, and to look closely at a part of the game I felt was extremely important.

[MichelSableheart]

I'm mostly going to ignore scotmany's statement that I'm doing something irrelevant instead of scumhunting. I believe that a certain series of events make most sense if Ren Hoek is scum, therefore I believe that Ren Hoek is scum. As far as I can see, that is a very relevant, valid way of determining who scum is, and therefore a good example of scumhunting. If he believes otherwise, I want to hear reasons from him rather then flat out dismissal.

Before you even made your initial post about Ren, you assumed that he was scum. With that in mind, you had an agenda to try and place reasoning on your vote. Not only have you used calculations to try and justfiy your belief that ren is scum, [SNIP]

Before I made my initial analysis of the dead of Seraphim, I suspected Ren Hoek of being scum because I found the events surrounding Seraphim's dead rather strange and much too fortunate for him, and because I felt that people in general were considering him confirmed pro-town on what I felt wasn't a very solid basis.

It is possible that these initial suspicions have influenced my analysis of that situation. Because of this, I've done everything within my ability to make sure my original case was build completely logical, that every assumption I was aware of was made explicit, and why I used maths. I wanted to make sure that you all could evaluate my case, and find instances were such bias influenced my reasoning.

I'm sure you have also done, at one time or another, a reread that confirmed a feeling about a certain player being scum that you had before you started reread. This doesn't make any conclusions reached during that reread automatically completely useless.

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Ren Hoek, why do you list me as being willing to list OGML? I don't think I have ever expressed such a sentiment.

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Thank you Ojanen, of actually thinking with me. I must admit that the theory is far fetched. OTOH, the whole situation looks quite surrealistic to me. Ren town would require a ridiculous amount of luck to accidentally make exactly the correct actions to prove himself "confirmed innocent". Any theory explaining what happened seems to be far fetched to me. If Goatrevolt is scum, the only reasons for the seraphim kill I can imagine are confirming scotmany or confirming Ren Hoek.

Michel, how do you rationalise in your Ren-Goat conspiracy the fact that Ren Hoek made a dubious selfvote instead of letting Goat vote him and not looking so bad?

Good question, one I hadn't actually considered yet. I must admit that I don't really have an answer to this.

[MichelSableheart]

It is not a valid way of determining who is scum because you aren't looking for scummy behavior. [SNIP]

There's more then just their behaviour available to discover who the scum is. Why should I restrict my ways of finding scum to just looking at behaviour then?

Suppose that someone replaced into an open game with 1 cop 1 doc and only 1 scum left alive. In that game, 2 players have claimed doc, and 1 player has claimed cop with an innocent on one of the docs. Would you tell the replacement in that game to look for scummy behaviour because it is the only valid way of determining who is scum?

The fact that you don't have any other suspicions makes me believe that you haven't even looked at anyone else.

Wow, brilliant conclusion! Especially because I was under the impression that I had already explicitly stated that in the last paragraph of post #889. I'll bold the important part.

Do you have any other suspects besides Ren?

At this point, unfortunately, no. I've read the thread once to get a feel for what's going on, but I haven't read it thoroughly. I haven't had the time yet to look at the cases being made in detail,

or to take a close look at different players

. I have used the time I had available after reading the thread to focus on my main suspect after the initial read, and to look closely at a part of the game I felt was extremely important.

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I'll QFT Yosarian2's response to OGML.

That depends what the mafia's motive for the kill was. If all the assumptions OMGL are making are correct, though, then they would pretty much have to be. He's assuming that the mafia sent in the kill to Scot after you were at lynch -1. He's then assuming they they did this intentionally hoping to kill Scot and get you lynched, apparently assuming the bus driver wouldn't target scot. He's assuming that me and Adel, specifically, did this, and that we apparently just forgot about the bus driver or just assumed he wouldn't target scot, even though the bus driver was Adel's plan to begin with, and even though I knew that my partner Goat was the bus driver. And then he's assuming that me and Adel, somehow surprised by the outcome of all this, then decided to go after you as some kind of desperate damage control, despite how incredibly obvious that would be.

That would make us gibbering idiots, yes.

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Michel: What actions/what luck has Ren done to confirm himself? None of the reasons for believing him to be confirmed have to do with things he's done.

If I understood people correctly, Ren Hoek is believed to be confirmed pro-town because the mafia risked lynching him immediately with the kill they made.

Ren Hoek was only at risk of being lynched immediately because he was at L-1, which in turn was a direct result of post #301, which encouraged SensFan to vote for him, and of his selfvote.

Secondly, one of the main reasons that people are aware of the fact that Ren Hoek would have been lynched if the kill on scotmany had succeeded, was the fact that he pointed this outhimself immediately after the lynch, in post #323.

Please take a close look at that post. Suppose that Ren Hoek is a townie. He must have been mistaken about the vote count immediately prior to the kill, even though that vote count was posted 1 post above the kill. Then, he must have been aware that the correct kill would have caused him to become lynched, even though he has shown a general misunderstanding of the game mechanics in general. And finally, he mentioned this all without knowing that information that would become available later would prove him innocent for this very reason. I would call that extremely lucky.

---

You think it's ridiculous that Ren could be so lucky to get confirmed, but your arguments for the opposite are even more preposterous. The theory that Ren and I choreographed some scheme where he self-voted to L-1, so he could bounce a kill off my own bus drive that was lucky enough to be verified by a tracker in order to confirm him is unbelievably far-fetched. That's not even considering the possible pitfalls of us trying such a scheme, such as someone simply hammering Ren in the meantime. That would be quite a failure of a plan. We setup this plan to confirm Ren that involves a completely suboptimal kill on Seraphim and someone simply hammers Ren in the meantime. Plan destroyed. Kill wasted.

• The tracker confirmation was a nice bonus, but not necessary. If you had claimed to have switched scotmany and seraphim without tracker confirmation, people would probably have believed you anyway. Especially because the most important part of your claim, that you switched to Seraphim, is still unconfirmed. The tracker result only showed that you targeted scotmany.
• I'm going to use an argument here that Ojanen used against me. Qucklynches are rather uncommon on this site, AFAIK.

---

I find the busdriver's claimed targets plausible and natural. I'm slightly puzzled by mafia's choice. I find it a remarkable coincidence that Adel happened to target the busdriver. You know, if town, that this part of the chain of events was a coincidence. Yet if it wasn't your slot, something tells me you would also talk about tracking specifically Goat being far-fetched.

I agree with you that the busdriver's claimed targets are plausible and natural. I am also in no way trying to imply that Goatrevolt is scum.

My conspiracy theory is based on the assumption that Goatrevolt is scum, and therefore that the mafia knew for certain that seraphim was going to die. The possibility that Goatrevolt is town is a different scenario alltogether, and is therefore evaluated in a different part of my post.

Would I have brought up the tracker result too if it wasn't my role? I doubt it. Because a Goatrevolt - Ren Hoek pairing has no control over who Adel targets, it doesn't really give information on those two players, unlike the other things I'm mentioning.

---

I join the chorus that really wants to hear thoughts from you on other stuff than the Seraphim kill.

I agree that this needs to be done ASAP. Unfortunately, due to a holiday job, my time is rather limited, and thoroughly looking at a player takes a lot of time for me. I will try to deliver something tomorrow though. No job in the weekend, fortunately.

[MichelSableheart]

But he did show a misunderstanding about game mechanics in that post. Talked about him not dying because of counting wrong although he didn't; apparently misunderstood the relevance of who the dying person is voting for.

Exactly. He showed a misunderstanding of virtually all the game mechanics at one moment or another. And yet he was aware of the fact that the number needed to lynch had been reduced because of the kill, even though noone else had even shown an inkling of that idea at the time.

MS, Adel had similar ideas, said he couldn't rule out that the Seraphim kill was a ruse and brought up this same Ren post (223) saying he never thought it was sincere. The 2 heads of your slot are the only ones, if I remember correctly, that have really been bringing up this breed of scheme speculation. Did Adel leave his future replacement notes/ideas to your quicktopic or did you zone in on this independently?

Probably a combination of both. Adel didn't leave me any notes about this game. However, when reading the thread and the quicktopics, I made sure to pay close attention to Adel's posts, knowing that they were written from a pro-town perspective.

I know I had general suspicions against Ren Hoek throughout the thread. When taking a break after reading day 1, I definately did not consider him confirmed innocent.

Then I read that Adel had similar suspicions towards Ren as I had, and got attacked for not mindlessly believing him confirmed innocent. It was because of that I decided that the whole situation needed thorough investigation.

I definitely interpreted you implying suspicion of Goat because you have been bringing up the scenario of him+Ren in concerned tones quite a lot.

AFAIK, I have only brought it up either when asked for clarification or when people were arguing against that specific part of my argument.

---
I'm not going to argue this point with scotmany anymore. It seems we are just throwing the same statements back and forth.

---
I'm going to look at the case against Adel/Me and at Sensfan now.

[MichelSableheart]

Probably a combination of both. Adel didn't leave me any notes about this game. However, when reading the thread and the quicktopics, I made sure to pay close attention to Adel's posts, knowing that they were written from a pro-town perspective.

I know I had general suspicions against Ren Hoek throughout the thread. When taking a break after reading day 1, I definately did not consider him confirmed innocent.

Then I read that Adel had similar suspicions towards Ren as I had, and got attacked for not mindlessly believing him confirmed innocent. It was because of that I decided that the whole situation needed thorough investigation.

In the proces of rereading, I ran into yosarian2's post #660. Which, as I now remember, also has had a large influence on my opinions. Sorry for originally forgetting about this one.

[MichelSableheart]

OGML is very focussed on Ren being effectively confirmed. His attacks against Yosarian and me seem to be mainly based on the fact that we refuse to agree with him on this. He even goes as far to claim that a scumpairing of yosarian and Adel did not think the possible results of a nightkill through. I would love to hear him at least comment on the possibility that Ren and Goat are scum together.

OTOH, I think that this singlemindedness is a strong towntell. I have trouble seeing OGML scum all out defending Ren Hoek town as that. As he stated himself, three confirmed innocents is very difficult to deal with. And I doubt that he would be so outspoken in his defense of Ren if the two of them were scum together.

----
The only topic I can see Ren Hoek in, is this main thread. In here, he is simply following OGML and CKD in their attacks on me. He hasn't brought up a single original point of his own. I don't know how strong his attacks against me in the QT have been, but what I see here doesn't give me a good impression. I may be suffering from confirmation bias though.

----
In this thread, CKD didn't show any suspicion of Adel till post #705. His post #676 mentioned that an Adel-Sens pair didn't make any sense, but didn't mention the conclusion that Adel was scum. However, Ren Hoek #674 promised a case against Adel by CKD. Based on that remark, and having seen the quicktopic, I get the impression that CKD had been very outspoken in attacking Adel in the Accounts quicktopic, were Adel couldn't defend against the accusations at all, while not showing any of these suspicions to Adel's face. That seems to be a very backhanded tactic to build support for what I know to be a mislynch. I would be willing to support a CKD lynch

----
Sensfan hasn't been very active, posting nothing relevant at all in the last 2 weeks. IMO, there wasn't really anything wrong with his attack on FaerieLord, but he has been evasive when answering questions about it. I reluctantly could see him lynched today for being a lurker, but I don't want to give up a powerrole each day or force scotmany to use his repairing ability relatively early. I really prefer other lynchtargets.

----
I find myself agreeing with Yosarian almost all of the time. Either he is very strongly trying to buddy up to me, or he has the same alignement as I have. He's probably town.

----

Some other notes:
Appearantly, the cases against Adel and Yosarian have been discussed extensively in the accounts quicktopic before being revealed in the main thread. Are we allowed to see that discussion? In the main thread, OGML was the only one who posted a case against Yosarian2, CKD was the only one who posted a complete case against Adel. Were they also the ones who fanned the flames in the accounts quicktopics, or were other players involved? Who brought up which points? Without knowing who said what, I find it extremely difficult to find the scum on my bandwagon, as I have no idea of the role of each player on it.

and yosarian and goatrevolt never posted a screenshot of their quicktopic, claiming there wasn't much to see. Are we allowed to check this for ourselves?

Finally, I would really appreciate it if those who claim there are too many assumptions in my case against Ren could point them all out to me. Personally, I am unaware of the presence of any unfounded assumptions, and I do not belief I made (m)any assumptions in my actual case.

[MichelSableheart]

You are assuming a scum team made up of geniuses with IQs above 180, with perfect timing.

It's true that I'm assuming scum who can think things through and know what they're doing. One assumption I missed. Any more?

Have you ever been scum?

Yes, but never in large theme games. See my wiki for details.

---

Thank you. One less thing to worry about. So. Who is the biggest scumbag between Yosarian and Adel/MSH? What do you think of vollkan?

crywolf20084, vollkan, TDC and Budja (& Nuwen or replacements) are behind the curve on activity.

Please compare and contrast the cases against Ren, Sensfan, and FL...

Why are you guiding the lurkers to limit their analysis, and consequently their votes among 3 players? Is that a sneaky way to give them excuses not to scum hunt? Do you happen to know that all three of these players are town, and therefore, all good lynches from your perspective? Are your buddies among the lurkers?

I'm seeing a bit of hypocrisy here.

[MichelSableheart]

Now MSH, what you do you think of this Adelscum post, from another game?

If I have to go on that post alone, Adel places a lot of emphasis on meta, sees potential differences in opinion on the topic of lurking, and considers these two topics excellent to start the discussion with.

---

You assume your percentages are exactly what the scum believed.

You assume the scum went through all those calculations before submitting their kill.

Personally, I believe I made a slightly different assumption: that the scum had a rough idea of how likely each scenario was, and that this rough idea resembled my percentages enough to make them useable. See the following quote from my original post:

I'll use these percentages as an estimation of the chance that each target was chosen. I believe they roughly match the chances in Adel's plan [SNIP] at least enough to get an acceptable estimate of what the scum could expect to happen

You assume the scum would be willing to sacrifice a scum member to get rid of me.

Again, I want to reword slightly. I assume the scum is willing to lynch a scum member who is going to get lynched anyway (which, I must admit, was another one of my assumpions, and probably the most dubious one) to get rid of you.

You assume the mafia could not actually think that I might have not been busdriven.

I don't think I made that assumption. Each of my calculations took into account a 25% chance of you dying. In other words, I estimated that mafia could expect you not to be the busdrivers target roughly 1 out of 4 times.

---
Currently, I count four assumptions:

1. Scum know what they're doing, and can think things through.
   
2. When they try to kill Scotmany, different scenario's can happen. Scum are aware of this, and have a rough idea of how likely each scenario is. This rough idea is similar to the percentages I've given.
   
3. Ren Hoek would almost certainly be lynched during day 1.
   
4. Scum is willing to immediately lynch a scum member who is going to get lynched anyway if this means that the Creative Director dies.

I have given arguments for all of these assumptions except #1, which I assumed was obvious. I have only seen counterarguments for assumption #3.

@those who claim I make too many assumptions: which of my assumptions do you disagree with, and why?

Apologies for pressing this point. But in a logical argument, if the logic is correct, and you agree with the assumptions made, then the conclusion will automatically follow, no matter how many assumptions were made. And if you don't agree with the assumptions made, you should be able to point out why you disagree with them, rather then just write them of as unfounded.

---

@MichelSableheart: Do you find Sensfan's behaviour regarding falsely referencing back to your quicktopic suspicious?

Looking back at the situation, no not really. In fact, I find myself disagreeing with Adel's assesment of the situation in the quicktopic.

Sensfan voted FL on monday, july 13th. Then the Ren Hoek bandwagon got to speed. On wednesday july 15th, he made two short posts against Ren Hoek. On thursday july 16th, Adel asked a direct question to Faerielord, to which Sensfan responded in the quicktopic (quicktopic post 15). Then, from saturday july 18th onward, he was discussing his case against FL with Ren Hoek.

He claimed he didn't drop it in thread, and definately did not drop it in the quicktopic. From the moment he posted his suspicions about FL till the moment he claimed not to have dropped it in the quicktopic, he made 4 posts in the quicktopic. 3 of these posts had to do with FaerieLord in some way or another, the other was a doublepost. He has not been saying continuously, explicitly, that he suspected FaerieLord, but I can understand why he claimed not to have dropped the matter in the quicktopic.

---
Thanks for posting the quicktopic.

Looking at the beginning of the Adel and Yos wagons, I'm mainly getting stronger confirmed in my suspicions against Ren. The wagon there builds up too much speed too fast for me to believe there is no scum there.

Ren Hoek showed agressiveness towards Adel during day 1, but doesn't comment in the quicktopic till CKD and OGML comment along the same lines. Then he is completely in favour of an Adel lynch. As far as I can see, he is the main reason that suspicions become a "let's lynch one of them now" feeling, while bringing very little of an actual case.

OGML promisses to make a case against adel in the Quicktopic, then does so in the main thread. He has his suspicions, he voices them. Looks good to me.

CKD isn't very loud with his suspicions in the beginning, rather he builds up steam slowly as the others comment. From the Quicktopic, I'm getting the feeling that ongoing discussion reinforces lingering feelings. If that is the case, then he is likely town too.

---
The most important thing in there, in my opinion, is the fact that the "Adel is attacking confirmed townies" argument has been brought up by Ren Hoek. I believe it is the worst argument out of all arguments given. The fact that it was first mentioned by a player who would have a serious agenda pushing the thought that he was confirmed town does not make it better at all.

Why is it the worst argument? Because at the beginning of day 2, Adel was not attacking Ren Hoek. He did not push for a Ren lynch, in fact, he explicitly stated that scot being the target of the scumkill made him change his mind on lynching Ren. That Adel did not dismiss the scummy feelings Ren gave him and remembered the possibility that Goat and Ren were scum together is not attacking confirmed townies, it is remaining open minded about players who are not completely confirmed.

[MichelSableheart]

Sure, but he was scum in that game. Know whaddamean? He did something similar here, asking a bunch of lurkers to voice their opinions on Adel's leading suspects.

I'm sorry, but I don't know what you mean. Asking lurkers their opinions on specific people seems something entirely different then asking people in general for meta information.

Hey MSH.

Change the variable of my alignment in your equations for the constant "townie."

Who is now scum and why?

So, let's assume you are town. In that case:

• There are likely 3 scum, based on the fact that 3 scum tends to be balanced for 12 players with a considerable amount of town power.
• Killing scotmany was likely a scum mistake, as the chance of being redirected to useless townmembers (seraphim, Ren Hoek) would be too high for scum, and I can't see any benefit for the scum in that case.
• Goatrevolt would be town, because the Seraphim kill would make no sense at all for goat scum.
• Scotmany would be town, seeing that scum tried to kill him. NOTE: A goatrevolt-scotmany pairing would be a possibility, but one I consider extremely unlikely.
• Exactly one out of CKD/OGML is scum, or noone with access to the accounts quicktopic is scum. The attack against Adel/Me was very agressive, and relatively broadly supported in the accounts thread. If both CKD and OGML were town, it is my belief that a scum member would have shown serious support for the case. It is unlikely that CKD and OGML are both scum, as scum like to keep a certain distance from each other. CKD is the more likely scum from the two, for blatantly supporting the Adel wagon but only out of sight.

I would feel certain about the above conclusions. What's below is extremely speculative, as we are now getting to parts of the thread I haven't studied in detail.

• Yosarian2 is likely town for his Adel defense. Buddying isn't going to do a scum much good if it means you'll upset the rest of the town against you.
• Ojanen would be likely town, as she seems to actually be thinking about this game and looking for scum, rather then taking the more simple (lazy) option of going along with the general opinion of the town.
• That leaves Vollkan, Budja and SensFan. Out of these three, I believe Vollkan is most likely to think the possible scenario's in case of a scotmany killattempt through. This makes him the most likely town out of these three.

Concluding: Based on my current reads, I would say that CKD, Budja and SensFan are the most likely scumteam. This conclusion is not at all well researched though.

---

Your theory isn't simply thinking things through. You believe the scum went through every single scenario, which given the amount of scenarios possible, is unlikely.

A simple "based on Adel's plan, scotmany is the most likely bus target, with probably Seraphim or Ren Hoek at the other side." would cover most of what I was saying. Just looking at the results of those three deaths would be enough for scum to determine if they wanted a scotmany kill or not.

Once again, you assume what the scum believe is similar to your percentages. There is absolutely no proof to that, and scum could have believed something totally different.

When determining what was likely to happen, the scum would have looked at what Adel's plan suggested. Based on Adel's plan:

1. The busdriver would protect either the CD or (less likely, because the role is less important) the CEO.
2. The other target for the busdrive would almost certainly be an account executive.
3. With those account executives under the most suspicion being the most likely targets.
4. From the account executives, Ren Hoek and Seraphim were the most suspicious.

Do you agree with the above four points?
If you don't, where do you differ from opinion?
And if you do agree, how could the scum possibly arive at percentages that are radically different from what I suggested? Please give me a set of percentages that fulfill the above requirements and that are so different from what I suggested that they produce significantly different results in the calculations I made.

The fourth one relies solely on the third one, which there is no proof too. Ren's self vote could have changed everything, I was personally getting caught up at that point, and other people were trying to pursue other lynches. While this isn't necessarily a bad assumption, a lot lies on it, and a lot lies on the scum believing that Ren was about to be lynched.

I agree that a lot of my case hinges on that assumption. If you disagree with that assumption, you will probably also disagree with my case.

---
OGML, can you please explain to me (or show me were you explained) why you believe Ren Hoek and Goatrevolt absolutely aren't scum together? Because as far as I can see, you have ignored that possibility completely.

---

What about the speed of Ren initial wagon?

The initial wagon against Ren began on page 2 of the game thread, with the discussion between him, Seraphim and scotmany, and was lingering throughout the first 11 pages of the game, even though noone could vote at that time.

Ren's play seems pretty consistant here. As you said, he had earlier suspicions and hopping onto the wagon seems like exactly what he would do.

It's not inconsistency that's bothering me. It's that he's all "I'm in favour of an Adel lynch" without actually contributing arguments, when the others have only expressed (strong) suspicion.

---
I agree that SensFan must start to contribute. If a hammer has to be threatened for that, so be it.

Sens, you are at lynch -1. Talk now or I will hammer you either tonight or tomorrow. And if you do say something, but your contribution is lackluster, then I'll still hammer you.

if Sensfan has posted on the site, but not in this thread next time I log in (tomorrow) I will place the hammer personally. If he has posted in this thread, I expect to see a post with content, and will hammer if such a post hasn't appeared when I'm about to log out.

[MichelSableheart]

On second thought, that is quite a long post. To make sure he won't miss it:

@SensFan

I agree that SensFan must start to contribute. If a hammer has to be threatened for that, so be it.

Sens, you are at lynch -1. Talk now or I will hammer you either tonight or tomorrow. And if you do say something, but your contribution is lackluster, then I'll still hammer you.

if Sensfan has posted on the site, but not in this thread next time I log in (tomorrow) I will place the hammer personally. If he has posted in this thread, I expect to see a post with content, and will hammer if such a post hasn't appeared when I'm about to log out.

[MichelSableheart]

As a note, MSH hasn't once PM'd me to tell me to get my ass in here, even though he knows he's allowed to.

Hey, checking in.

Sorry for not posting here earlier.

You may want to check the main thread ASAP though. Quite a lot happened since your last post there.

I told you to get into the main thread ASAP through our quicktopic two weeks ago. Sending a PM then would have been superfluous, sending a pm when you were V/LA would be useless, and even when you only skimmed the quicktopic, the message really couldn't be missed, so sending a pm after last monday was unnecessary.

---
Looking at Mafia 98, you made a grand total of 22 posts there since last monday, on five different days. During that same time period, you made 4 posts in here, 3 of which did not contain significant content. The content in the other post was meager to say the least. CKD can post tomorrow.

Unvote

Vote: SensFan

---

The initial suspicion did, but hardly enough for predict such a wagon occuring. Ren's behaviour after been voted contributed the most to his wagon.

Clearly incorrect. Seraphim, Budja and Yosarian2 all voted before Ren's reaction to being voted. Vollkan announced that he would vote Ren if he had to vote someone in #272 (before Ren's reaction), and Ren's self vote is not useful when determining if the speed of the bandwagon is indicative of scum. All of that did not come suddenly. And then Ren did something that clearly deserved extra votes, which IMO also did not happen with Adel early day 2.

---

But the fact that it isn't unusual behaviour for Ren IMO weakens your view of him as the "scum on your wagon.

Where else did Ren push for a lynch without contributing arguments of his own?

[MichelSableheart]

Sorry all, don't have much time to post, unfortunately. Just a quick reply this time.

Did you hammer SensFan because I was starting to turn up the heat on Budja?

No.

Or do you have another reason? I was waiting for contributions from these two lurkers to compare them and help decide who to lynch.

I can't totally blame you, but why the rush?

We had waited two weeks for SensFan to come out and post something game relevant, even though people were putting pressure on him even before I replaced in. I didn't want to wait another week for the lurkers in this game (I personally didn't consider Budja to be part of that group though) to post something useful. Waiting for lurkers is a perfect way to kill a game.

[MichelSableheart]

Concluding: Based on my current reads, I would say that CKD, Budja and SensFan are the most likely scumteam. This conclusion is not at all well researched though.

Curious now that Sens has flipped town, how has this conclusion changed?

First I want to remark that that conclusion was only on the assumption that Ren Hoek was pro-town, which I'm still not 100% sure about. The possibility of a Goat-Ren pairing has dropped dramatically with Goat's claim of having found scum though. Only if there are 4 scum members (meaning the extra kill would mean the win for mafia) would semi-confirmed Goat risk himself for an extra kill, IMO.

So what has changed? SensFan has become obvtown. Goat-scot pairing is still unlikely. Which means the mafia is likely 3 out of Vollkan, Ojanen, OGML, CKD, Budja and Yosarian. Yosarian is almost certainly not scum, for his defense of Adel and the fact that he would have seen the consequences of the scotmany kill. OGML and CKD are not scum together, and one of them is almost certainly scum for the bandwagon in the accounts QT. CKD looks a bit better with the Sens town flip. I'm no longer sure which of the two would be my highest suspect.

So basically, I would say that, assuming RH is town, the mafia would be one out of OGML/CKD and two out of Vollkan/Ojanen/Budja. I'm not going to pin it down further, as I'm hoping that Goat's kill and the scum kill will have given us a lot more information come voting time.

[MichelSableheart]

This was on Sunday 9th; you hammered Sensfan next week Saturday. Was one more week of lurking the thing that changed your mind?

One more week of lurking (after him stating he's back on monday) plus a lack of consensus for any other lynch that would be acceptable to me.

Ren, Korts hasn't confirmed the start of morning hours yet. Scum can't kill yet.

Furthermore, once morninghours start, Goat is going to submit the kill immediately. I really don't see how killing Goatrevolt is going to stop him from vigging the scum he's found.

[MichelSableheart]

Sorry, nevermind. Goat is going to take busdriver, not vig.

In that case, claiming the found scum in public seems best, especially because the roleblocker is the only role that can safe someone from the vig kill. I believe that, should Budja scum decide to act, it's better to have 2 revealed scum instead of 1.

Best to wait till as close to the end of morning hours as possible though, to give the scum less time to adapt.

[MichelSableheart]

One thing to MSH though:
What is your current stance on Ren?

Assuming that Goat did indeed find scum: Much more likely town, but not confirmed.

---
Unsurprisingly, I strongly belief that we should take the information from the vig kill into account before deciding on a lynch. Discussion can't hurt too much though.

---
scot, it is impossible that I am the only scum in this game. If I am the only viable lynch today, who do you belief my partners are?

[MichelSableheart]

MSH, would you be willing to lynch Yosarian?

At this point in time, no. I haven't seen any compelling evidence that he's scum, I find myself agreeing with almost everything he says, I believe his stance of defending Adel is not one scum is likely to make, and he is the other member of my creative team.

[MichelSableheart]

Alright, who are you willing to lynch, and can you make a convincing case? Maybe I'll join you if it's compelling.

At this moment, I'm not willing to lynch anyone. Goatrevolt claims to have found scum. When morninghours end, the vig kill will resolve, hopefully on the scum Goat found. That is going to give us an incredible amount of information. The information gained there will hopefully help me determine who the other scum are, and who therefore should be lynched.

[MichelSableheart]

I felt Ren was scum at that time because I saw 2 scenario's, both relatively likely, in which Ren was scum. In one of these scenario's, Goat was scum. This did not imply that Goat was scum (after all, the Goat town scenario was also a good possibility), but I believed it was a possibility.

Goat almost certainly being town removes half the basis of my suspicion of Ren. The other half of my suspicion is reason enough to still not consider him confirmed, but my suspicions have lessened enormously.

[MichelSableheart]

Thank you very much, Goat, for taking the vig role, and for telling who you tracked. It makes analyzing things much better possible.

I'm still not going to comment on this till we have seen the vig kill. I want to have certain info about who is speaking the truth.

PS, sorry for the potential double post.

[MichelSableheart]

curious, do you see yos following you in any manner? Do you think he is buddying with you in any way? Can you see how we think he is?

I have already answered this. I see yosarian heavily defending me, and Adel before that. It is one of the main reasons I consider him pro-town, because I do not believe that yos-scum would have any advantage from buddying to me. It makes him look bad to the rest of the town, and it significantly hinders what looks like the most likely mislynch at this point in time. In return, he would get the support of a player that noone is very likely to listen to. I see too little a gain for scumyos buddying.

[MichelSableheart]

Michel, all of your theorizing yesterday about Ren scum and Goat scum was a huge, huge reach based on completely wack-tackular assumptions. Ren isn't scum today, he wasn't scum yesterday. I understand that you haven't really got any other options except trying to get these confirmed players to be less confirmed, but know for the future that it just makes you more obvious.

If Goat is scum, then all actions of both Ren and Goat together make perfect sense for a Ren-Goat team trying to get them both semi-confirmed. Goat scum -> Ren scum. No strange assumptions at all.

It seems you are mistaken in me. I am simply trying to figure out this game, which means taking into account all possibilities, especially those that are dismissed by town consensus without having been looked at properly.

---

Nothing but his actions in the very beginning of the game make sense from a protown point-of-view. The FL lynch is horrible if people actually dig deeper into it. Had FL been scum, he would have switched me out before he was lynched. His defense on Sens was ridiculous, and had no bases. Him not voicing his opinions makes absolutely no sense. Him calling me scum for attacking Sens made no sense, despite you Yos also did it, as well as CKD. Him actually ignoring me responding to his "points" against me makes no sense for a protown player. His vote on Sens definitely made no sense. He was pushing that sens play here is consistent with his protown meta. That doesn't just change Yos.

And then there is MSH, who's attack on Ren was based on a theory full of baseless assumptions, and his hammer on Sens when there was possible that discussion might have picked up.

Scot, please don't use the word baseless when it doesn't apply. Baseless means without foundation. Both Adel's defense of Sensfan and the assumptions in my theory about Ren Hoek had explanations given. You may disagree with those explanations, believe them not to be solid, call them ridiculous even. But do not act as if they aren't there at all. Because that's seriously misrepresenting me.

[MichelSableheart]

First things first: A well earned congratulations to the scumteam. You kept me second guessing througout the game, I never came close to pinpointing things down. Just a small highlight from my IM convo with Yos though, when it was in fact too late:

MichelDdt (21:41:56): I even played around with the (im)possibility that there are 4 scum, which would include Goatrevolt
MichelDdt (21:42:21): It would explain why he wanted the vig kill
MichelDdt (21:42:27): can't see that balanced though

The main reason I couldn't see 4 scum being balanced is that the day 1 choices didn't give much in the way of info roles. A tracker is nice, but with 4 scum they can choose who makes the kill to avoid the track relatively easily. And getting more then 1 track result on day 1 was unlikely: if we chose 2 trackers, one of them would have died almost certainly. I think 3 scum, slightly more players, or stronger powerroles early would have been better balanced.

I'm not too happy with my own play. I replaced into a relatively difficult spot, but I don't feel I did much to help. What could I have done better? In particular, could I have convinced the rest of the town to rethink the "confirmed innocents"?

@Ojanen: you did catch me in an inconsistency there. If I had originally given the entire truth, my statement would have read "in no way am I implying that Goat

has to be

scum, even though I think that's highly likely". With the town sentiments at that time, calling Goat highly likely scum seemed suicide. I guess the wording I finally settled on had a far too strong "I believe Goat to be town" meaning, getting myself into trouble.

I also agree that Quicktopics shouldn't be allowed to be showed or quoted ingame. They are too much hassle for the scum to fake. I'm not going to throw away a weapon when it's given to me though.

Finally, some more quicktopics for you:
Creative Department
Adel-MSH/Sensfan
Yosarian/MSH