Advertising Mafia - Over, see 1183

[vollkan]

Hi all, sorry for the delay in getting started. I've been snowed under with exams for the past week, but I'm reading now.

[vollkan]

I think Ren Hoek's 31 is totally overkilling Scotmany's "random" point. Scot's exactly right that there isn't really much to go on, so his description is fine. Hoek's painting it as a conspiracy to "avoid scrutiny" is just ridiculous.

And Seraphim agrees with this...*sigh*

Scot's 43 basically captures what I think about this issue.

And in 45 Seraphim calls Scot out for a "contradiction"...which isn't there.

I hate hate hate Hoek's 47. I only hope it's hyperbole.

Adel makes a good point in 87 about strategically assigning PGO and Tracker, and comes up with what seems to be a good strategy in 110. And the more I read of it as I go through, it seems to meet all the objections (and I can't think of any other problems with it)

As such,

Vote: Tracker

[vollkan]

Vollkan, do you agree with FL's suggestion of letting the town pseudo-vote the roles in?

:S Damn...I didn't realise that had been suggested (I was skimming in parts because a lot of the 9 pages didn't seem too meaningful).

Well, for what it's worth now, I agree with the idea of having a pseudo-vote.

ok so is everyone fine with PGO?

Yup. As I said, I approve of the Adel plan.

[vollkan]

Vote: Bus Driver

- reminder that that's L-1 given my double-vote.

[vollkan]

vote:vollkan for posting so much elsewhere on the site, just not in this thread.

Okay, a few points in reply:
1) As I said, I've had exams. I haven't been posting as much as usual anywhere, and I am only in two games atm.

2) Posted by Korts on Tuesday July 7:

SensFan has been prodded;

vollkan hasn't picked up his role and alignment yet

. If he doesn't pick it up until tomorrow, he will be replaced. CKD's V/LA is noted.

3) So, if we go to my profile and have a look at my posting since finding the PM:
- Advertising Mafia Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:11 pm
- Advertising Mafia Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:59 pm
- Mini 806 Wed Jul 08, 2009 2:05 am
- Favourite Book Tournament Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:51 am
- Mini 806 Fri Jul 10, 2009 1:56 pm
- Advertising Mafia Fri Jul 10, 2009 1:58 pm

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

[vollkan]

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

Nothing concrete yet, but if I had to vote it would go on Ren Hoek for what seemed to be massive overreaching.

[vollkan]

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

Nothing concrete yet, but if I had to vote it would go on Ren Hoek for what seemed to be massive overreaching.

how about now?

In all of the five posts between my answer to the last time you asked me, and this post (yours, not mine), no.

unvote, vote crywolf

Because?

unvote, vote crywolf

um...k.

Vote: Sera

More from me after work.

Ditto.

If this is random voting, I don't think that's appropriate at this point in time, given that there is actually proper discussion going on. It's effectively an active lurking tool.

vote: Ren Hoek

Started suspicion onto the creative director for a bad reason (saying random picks are bad/scummy). The scum would certainly want the director (if not scum) removed so this feels a little bad to me.

I like this logic a lot.

Unvote:Budja

; it was basically a vote for flying under the radar, and with this post, he's not flying under the radar anymore.

Vote: Ren Hoek

I don't think it qualifies as "logic."

FOS: Yosarian
vote: Budja

1) Ren's reasoning was bad
2) Ren's actions have obvious scum motivation
3) Therefore, a vote on Ren is justified

It isn't lynch material, but it's hardly not logical.

Scum doesn't stick their necks out in broad daylight to work wagons on players that are threatening or inconvenient. They shut up about it during the day, and nightkill them. Right there, you "logic" breaks down.

But scum who know (or think) that scum don't stick their necks in such a manner out have an obvious incentive to do so. This is just WIFOM play. Adel's 426 pretty much captures this exactly.

Vote: Ren Hoek

[vollkan]

His reasons for voting me are spurious, at least from my point of view.

They're really clearly not spurious. He had good, logical reasons for voting you, as lots of logical intellegent people have pointed out and explained to you by now.

He may or may not be right, but all he's doing is agressive, logical scumhunting for valid reasons. Which you just said wasn't scummy.

I didn't find it logical at all. Perhaps it is because I know he's wrong.

Your reason for calling it illogical was pure WIFOM.

On the second issue - Scot's role being a threat - the crux of your defence is simply that you weren't aware of how important the CD is. That's

bullshit

.

Your very first post attacking Scot was, by my time, Sun Jul 05, 2009 2:59 am.

Post after that was #31 by Goat:

Ren: If you were in his position, what criteria would you use to dish out the abilities on day 1?

You reply Sun Jul 05, 2009 3:05 am :

Ren: If you were in his position, what criteria would you use to dish out the abilities on day 1?

I would make an effort to draw people out. I would ask that we don't go too fast in order to have more info. I would be more pro-active.

We don't know how this game will play out. Maybe there will be information.

I would never, ever throw in the towel in my first post and declare, without any knowledge of how things will develop, that my choice will be random.

And then, at Sun Jul 05, 2009 3:38 am we have post 59:

Scottyscum giving powers to the scum would be a major drawback to the game, as we'd be wasting tracking results on players that will mislead us.

If scot is scum, and gives power to the scum, what power should we let him hand out? Just a theoretical mafia question.

I focus on those posts because you very clearly indicate understanding of the basic nature of Scot's role. Short of a post by you declaring "Oh, wow, Scot's role is awesomely powerful", the evidence can't get much better than that.

You sound like you are very much looking forward to night in order to enjoy the thrill of the nightkill with your buddies.

[vollkan]

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

this doesn't jive with

Ok, I got how Adel's plan works, and I think it's the best plan presented yet, partially because it's the only one I have fully understood

The most valuable role would probably end up getting switched with one of the weakest players... and I think you understood that.

unvote, vote:FaerieLord

I get why FL's theory is wrong, but I'm not sure I get the thrust of your accusation - unless you are saying that FL's earlier statement about understanding your plan is effectively contradicted by her statement that the scum chose Seraphim.

[vollkan]

unless you are saying that FL's earlier statement about understanding your plan is effectively contradicted by her statement that the scum chose Seraphim.

beg pardon?

Well, if FL said she understood your plan, that entails that she understands that part of the rationale for the plan is that it allows for a situation where scum targeting a high profile target can have that target busdriven with a less high profile target. As such, it wouldn't make sense for her to appear so surprised by the death of Seraphim or, more accurately, for her to say that scum "chose" Seraphim (since, given the earlier statement, she should recognise the prospect of busdriving)

[vollkan]

unless you are saying that FL's earlier statement about understanding your plan is effectively contradicted by her statement that the scum chose Seraphim.

beg pardon?

Well, if FL said she understood your plan, that entails that she understands that part of the rationale for the plan is that it allows for a situation where scum targeting a high profile target can have that target busdriven with a less high profile target. As such, it wouldn't make sense for her to appear so surprised by the death of Seraphim or, more accurately, for her to say that scum "chose" Seraphim (since, given the earlier statement, she should recognise the prospect of busdriving)

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

Most likely, either to feign surprise generally (sort of like an "Oh damn, X was NKed!") or, more specifically and strategically, to smear more high profile targets who were not killed.

[vollkan]

unless you are saying that FL's earlier statement about understanding your plan is effectively contradicted by her statement that the scum chose Seraphim.

beg pardon?

Well, if FL said she understood your plan, that entails that she understands that part of the rationale for the plan is that it allows for a situation where scum targeting a high profile target can have that target busdriven with a less high profile target. As such, it wouldn't make sense for her to appear so surprised by the death of Seraphim or, more accurately, for her to say that scum "chose" Seraphim (since, given the earlier statement, she should recognise the prospect of busdriving)

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

Most likely, either to feign surprise generally (sort of like an "Oh damn, X was NKed!") or, more specifically and strategically, to smear more high profile targets who were not killed.

do you think that it is probable that either of those would be motivated by a town aligned alignment?

To state the obvious, no.

Do you think it is more probable that he didn't understand my plan, but innocently thought that he did?

Frankly, no but what's keeping me from switching my vote is whether FL can justify it. In my head, though, I can't think of a way that a person could understand your plan and not get the point of the busdriving. I mean, the whole point of the busdriver is to serve as a means of frustrating scumkills. It strikes me as extremely unlikely that a player could not realise that but support the plan nonetheless (surely, if a player didn't understand the inclusion of a busdriver, they would ask for explanation).

[vollkan]

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill. It took me a little while to join the dots and I did understand your plan so I'm seeing this as null.

Good point

[vollkan]

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

he refers to "that list" which I assume references

I think the optimal scum kill choice was a member of the accounts team

• vollkan - Head of Account Services
  crywolf20084 - Account Executive
  Ren Hoek - Account Executive
  Nuwen - Account Executive
  curiouskarmadog - Account Executive
  Seraphim - Account Executive

I think that they tried to pick who the most likely target for the bussdriver switch would be. Thankfully, the odds were against them. The tracker is alive. You are welcome.

which you will note came before FL posted:

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

which is a wold apart from

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill.

.. I'd already connected the majority of the dots for FL, and yet he still posted

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

I don't buy it.

Better point.

[vollkan]

I have a strong reason to believe Ren Hoek is town. Everyone voting for him needs to explain what they think about the self-vote.

I think the fact that he put himself at lynch -1, and then the scum killed someone on his wagon, certanly does not make him look any better. Adel is probably right that the scum were hoping to get bus driven to a higher prirority target, but still.

Your language is murky here. Are you saying that the fact he self-voted and scum killed a wagoner is a scumtell?

Its funny you say that, since I don't think I have any votes on me at all

*blink* How on earth is that relevant?

This. And to those who are saying that what FL said doesn't make sense from a town mindset, how exactly does it make sense from a scum mindset? It's a null tell. That's it.

I explained this last page (though, I don't agree it can't possibly make sense from a town mindset; it just seems unlikely).

crywolf20084, vollkan, TDC and Budja (& Nuwen or replacements) are behind the curve on activity.

Please compare and contrast the cases against Ren, Sensfan, and FL, summarizing the strengths and weaknesses of the case against each, and please conclude by telling us who you think is scum.

Ren

• Overreaching on Scot
  
• The "the case against me is't logical" - smear discrediting
  
• WIFOMing about his actions
  
• The contradiction I pointed out in his statements about the CD

SensFan

• The points against SL are so solid...they don't need explanation
  
• His attack on FL regarding the "nothing to start off" point is absolute bollocks. It relies on a particular reading of what was said which is effectively invalidated by the context. Thus, it suggests looking for reasons to attack, rather than making a balanced judgment.
  
• The bit I quote above about him having no votes on him raises an entirely irrelevant point in seeking to discredit Ren's attack on him
  
• Accuses Ren of strawmanning and misrepresenting him - easy way to smear
  
• His total non sequitur about opportunism

FL

• As I said "if FL said she understood your plan, that entails that she understands that part of the rationale for the plan is that it allows for a situation where scum targeting a high profile target can have that target busdriven with a less high profile target. As such, it wouldn't make sense for her to appear so surprised by the death of Seraphim or, more accurately, for her to say that scum "chose" Seraphim (since, given the earlier statement, she should recognise the prospect of busdriving)"

Relative Evaluation:

For starters, I like the FL case least of all. Innocent misunderstanding is possible, but I can't see what the understanding would be then. More potently, I think, is Budja's point about the prospect of it simply being a failure to "join the dots". If anything, I would probably expect such a failure to come from town more than scum; town having less of a reason to be immediately thinking strategically about the result in terms of busdriving. Since, aside from that, FL hasn't leaped out at me as scummy, I don't think it is a strong case.

The Sens and Ren cases are similar and I frankly have trouble weighing them up. For what it's worth, the biggest single point on Ren, in my view, is the contradiction. The biggest on Sens is the FL attack.

[vollkan]

@ vollkan

Limiting your analysis to 3 players (suggested by another player, Adel) doesn't sit well with me. Are you unable or unwilling to think for yourself and put pressure on players that have gotten away with lurking or flying under the radar, for instance? Adel himself isn't worthy of being looked at? What about Budja?

I think you are beating up on this unreasonably. Sure, that post only dealt with three people, but nothing I have said in any way implied that I am somehow limiting my analysis to those three.

I'd go with Volkan's list, except he appears to not really care about looking at the attack in detail, given he missed the relevence about me not having any votes, and threw some general nondescript about how certain words I used are "an easy way to smear", without saying why they were bad in this case.

What was the relevance of you not having votes on you? I really don't see what the link is here. You having no votes on you has no bearing on whether or not voting someone else to L-1 is chicken

To elaborate on the smearing thing. I think that certain words - "wifom", "strawman", "misrepresent" as obvious examples - have a tendency to be overused and overstretched as a means of turning misunderstanding into a pseudo-scumtell. I don't see any strawman in the "i don't have any votes thing", because I'm still confused as to what sensible meaning can come from it. As for the misrepresenting thing, it's not at all unreasonable that Ren would see your response of "Awesome, thanks for letting me know" as showing some eagerness. Maybe you didn't mean it that way. But that doesn't make it a "misrepresentation". Just to be clear, the words I've identified are often entirely appropriate in this game, but they are also very often misused.

[vollkan]

I'm annoyed that sens apparently has the time to constantly post in other games and other threads on the site but yet he can't answer a simple question of why he thinks I am scum. Him constantly ignoring that question which a few people have asked him is condemning.

I think that your attack on me was bullshit and opprtunistic.

So despite the fact that others have also said you took fl out of context, that you ignored ren hoek, and that you took forever to explain why you think i'm scum, everything I have said is bullshit and opportunistic? I guess that makes CKD opportunistic in pursuing a bullshit case too right? I guess everyone that says you misrepped fl is opportunistic then too right? Seriously, the best you can do is that my attack on you is bullshit and opportunistic, despite me being right. Seriously, come on, there is no way you can be town and respond that way.

This is what I meant by his reliance on smear. "Bullshit" and "opportunism" are words of the same nature as "strawman" and "misrepresent"; they are used as a substitute for "I don't agree with you [reasons for disagreement omitted, of course]" so as to make accuser/s look scummy.

I would mention that the fact that Sensfan did not try to get the tracker role for himself is probably a point in his favor.

Yeah, but if that exchange was posted and Sens had tried to argue for why he should get tracker, I daresay most of us would see that as a scumtell, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sens-scum would be thinking of that danger.

So you think I'm scum with Ren and FL and...budja?

As Adel said, this is a rhetorical trick and doesn't in any way discredit suspicions. I'm interested as to why you'd ask it, though.

I always thought the case on FL was not that strong and easily explained by poor reading.

Again, I am still baffled as to what was so poor about the FL case

Since when are quick lynches beneficial for the town?

when it grants a structural advantage to the town.

Also, for the record, can you please restate your case Adel?

with a confirmed CD, you are a role that is high risk (if you are scum) and low reward (if you are town) since what you add to the game (ability to replace CD) is redundant as we can elect a new CD.

You "acted" surprised when Seraphim was killed, and I do not believe that was an honest response. That Budja, a player who is clearly not paying attention to detail, made the same mistake does little to support your innocence in my mind, since I think you are more competent than he is.

Without overwhelming evidence of your innocence, I think you should die. This is early in the game, and you are too high risk and low reward for you to be left alive.

What do you think about the point I made two posts ago. I'll quote the relevant part now:

FL

As I said "if FL said she understood your [Adel's] plan, that entails that she understands that part of the rationale for the plan is that it allows for a situation where scum targeting a high profile target can have that target busdriven with a less high profile target. As such, it wouldn't make sense for her to appear so surprised by the death of Seraphim or, more accurately, for her to say that scum "chose" Seraphim (since, given the earlier statement, she should recognise the prospect of busdriving)"

Relative Evaluation:

For starters, I like the FL case least of all. Innocent misunderstanding is possible, but I can't see what the understanding would be then. More potently, I think, is Budja's point about the prospect of it simply being a failure to "join the dots". If anything, I would probably expect such a failure to come from town more than scum; town having less of a reason to be immediately thinking strategically about the result in terms of busdriving. Since, aside from that, FL hasn't leaped out at me as scummy, I don't think it is a strong case.

[vollkan]

Vollkan: You're baffled at why Budja calls the FL case poor, but you also called it weak. What gives?

It seems I got it confused with the Sens defence. If you recall, in my last post I had this exchange with Sens:

I'd go with Volkan's list, except he appears to not really care about looking at the attack in detail, given he missed the relevence about me not having any votes, and threw some general nondescript about how certain words I used are "an easy way to smear", without saying why they were bad in this case.

What was the relevance of you not having votes on you? I really don't see what the link is here. You having no votes on you has no bearing on whether or not voting someone else to L-1 is chicken
[/quote]

Sens had said that my argument against him was basically missing a lot of detail when, to me, it seemed pretty straightforward. I had in my mind that "case has been called weak, but I don't think it is" but wrongly applied that thought.

Also, you failed entirely to comment on Adel's plan to quicklynch FL. Thoughts?

That's the reason I asked Adel about my thoughts on the FL case at the end. To be clear, if it wasn't from my quoted thoughts, I just can't see what is so damning about the reaction to Seraph's death. Adel's point about high-risk is a legitimate one, but I don't think the case against FL is enough to justify a lynch.

[vollkan]

now you have forgotten why you agreed with me?

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

See, I don't think it is unreasonable to posit that town-FL might not, at first instance, be thinking strategically enough to work out the busdriving scenario. From there, the question arises as to whether your listing would have been sufficient to join the dots for town-FL. I know I am flat-out contradicting what I said in 345, but I just don't think that the list leaves us to conclude that FL was not being genuine. It seems a bizarre strategy for scum (and, unless I am again mistaken, your argument is that FL was being deliberately disingenuous) to pick on one part of the post (the list itself) and totally ignore the rest of it (where you explicitly refer to the busdriver switch). Pretty much a classic case of Hanlon's Razor. True, FL is more competent than Budja, but that doesn't in any way serve to establish that FL's action wasn't a consequence of blunder.

which offers no real opinion (rare for volkan-town) on the difference between Sensfan and Ren

Rare, yes, but the cases on the two of them (at least as I saw them) were pretty much the same in terms of strength. Obviously, the specific tells were different, but I couldn't work out any reason for weighing the set of Ren-tells heavier or lighter than those of Sens

[vollkan]

FL-scum would know that his team targeted scot, so when I asked him why he thought the scum targeted Seraphim, the natural reaction for scum is to plead ignorance.

Or to give a more strategically-aware response by referring to the prospect of busdriving.

The problem I have with this stage of your reasoning is that the possible reactions of FL-scum are also quite plausibly capable of coming from FL-town

he understood my plan and yet never suggested that either the busdriver switched targets on the scum kill, or that the scum tried to kill the person who would be switched.

Yes, I pointed this out myself a while back. The problem is that it still assumes that town-FL would be able to connect the dots.

Hanlon's razor (Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity) is a good adage for those of us living in the real world where there aren't many really bad faith actors. In mafia about 25% of us are bad faith actors, and we have to look for signs of malice.

That's a good distinction between RL and mafia. But the number of times I have strung up innocents for mistakes, or made blunders myself makes me sceptical of any tells which don't evince intention.

the major reason I want him lynched is because there isn't anything that makes me think that he is less likely to be scum than anyone else, and with scot confirmed and CD we should be able to lock this game up and use the power roles each day to give us more and more confirmed town players. The best way we can break the mechanic of this game is to keep a confirmed player in the CD role, and FL-scum could take that advantage away from us.

in a nutshell, even assuming that he has the same likelihood of being scum as random chance, I think it is clear that we should lynch him. From the POV of other town players there are 3 players who are close to confirmed (self + scot + GR), and there are 13 players alive. Assuming that there are three scum, each remaining player has a baseline of a 33% chance of being scum. That 33% chance + the huge negative impact of FL-scum appointing a new CD of unknown alignment = enough reason for me to advocate his lynch in the strongest possible way.

I have much more sympathy for your argument here, then for the actual scumtell alleged against FL. I was going to say that you are ignoring the cost of losing a town-FL's ability, but then I realised that Scot's effectively confirmed status and the existence of the public vote really negate that cost.

[vollkan]

Budja, how do you square that with this?

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill. It took me a little while to join the dots and I did understand your plan so I'm seeing this as null.

[vollkan]

Unvote, Vote: FaerieLord

[vollkan]

/agree

[vollkan]

Vote: Jailkeeper

Let's get this over with. As Ren says, it's a no-brainer.

[vollkan]

It looks like CKD and Ren's tracker votes haven't counted, probably because the "lynch" result for JK hadn't yet flipped.

Vote: Tracker

[vollkan]

Yeah, Bulletproof

[vollkan]

Vote: Bulletproof

not played up to his level, and I take a lack of investment as a town tell for him.

Have you ever said this to him before? You raised met against him previously, so presumably this has come up as an issue before.

I can see a bored Sens-town who got himself into trouble by just going through the motions doing such a thing, but I expect Sens-scum wouldn't. He has played in two games with me, and I abused him and violently lynched him in both of those game. He wouldn't give me fodder to lynch him with -- he would be much more careful.

Was "Sens scum tends to be careful" (or something like that) part of your met?

I didn't actually imply that the act of figuring out the mechanics was anti-town, so this response seems vaguely like a straw-man. The crux of my problem with you at that point was your overall lack of player analysis in favor of neutral game mechanic analysis, something your response here fails to address. Its not that what you were doing was anti-town, its that what you weren't doing is scummy.

Agreed.

His coming forward with his busdriver actions confirmed two other players, one of which is the most powerful role left in the game, and blew the shit out of the chances for a viable Ren lynch. This is not something scum would do.

Maybe I missing something, but how did it "blow the shit out" of the chance for a Ren lynch?

I'd appreciate if someone took a look a Budja, and report on whether they get the same icky feeling I do. Maybe it's my imagination. If it is, I'd like to know. I need a second opinion.

I'll do a pbpa

[vollkan]

Maybe I missing something, but how did it "blow the shit out" of the chance for a Ren lynch?

Ren is pretty close to being confirmed considering that the scum tried to kill me (if goat is telling the truth). Had the scum killed me, Ren would have been lynched since I was not voting for Ren. Thus scum would basically be killing me and losing one of their members at the same time.

Ah, of course. I feel stupid for not seeing that.

[vollkan]

and what exactly was I not doing? Analyzing other players. Please. Read my damn posts. I've devoted a majority of words to theory and mechanics, but the minority that is opinion and players analysis is still far more than the median contribution of players in this game.

Your original response to OGML here did seem like a strawman, but I think this clears it up and is a legit point. In effect, OGML's argument is attacking you for writing surplus.

Also, vollkan are you trying out a new playstyle?..if so why? I have seen you as scum and town, and this playstyle is completely different. You usually have a more hands on approach also no more percentages?

I know self-metting is always vulnerable to wifom and so on, so I don't pretend for this to be authoritative. I think that I basically have two alternate playstyles depending on whether or not I see anything exceptionally scummy (NB: This is alignment independent. When I say "scummy", I include voll-scum attacking things from townies he thinks are scummy or, broadening the term somewhat, capable of being construed as such).

In contrast, and House Mafia leaps in to memory here (mainly because it was the first game where I began to notice this issue) which I think you were in IIRC, if I don't have anything which makes me salivate with either suspicion or bloodlust, I tend to be less aggressively inquisitorial than otherwise.

As for percentages, that's a different matter altogether. Frankly, I just got sick of doing them because they were always being subjected to questioning and I don't think they helped my scumhunting to any degree whatsoever. I've come to see that absence of attack is as meaningful an indicator of my position on somebody than labelling them with a "50" (which, if you recall, was my numeric equivalent for "neutral")

Okay, as promised, a PBPA of Budja:
0: Strongly advises against PGO. No explanation as to why
1: Supports RB over tracker. I disagree, but I think there was enough of a contention on this point that I am not prepared to see
2: Discussion of framers
3: Three days later, pops up to point out that Nuwen's conversing with Korts was prior to role distribution. IIoA.
4: Agrees with Adel's request to hammer and move on.
5: Four days later, votes Ren. I think his vote was reasonably justified (in terms of supplying reasoning for it).
6: Rightly, I think retorts to Ren's "I don't think it qualifies as "logic.""
7: reasonable responses to Ren
8: Says the self-vote is simply anti-town and proves nothing. This point interests me a bit. Unless Budja is scum with Ren, this isn't the sort of comment I would typically expect scum to make. Scum, I think, would be more content to wait and see how the town takes it; given that self-votes have the potential to be very explosive stuff. Then again, Budja may just be faking it and I am just underestimating his tactical ability.
9: The join the dots point which I think is fairly perceptive
10: QFTs someone calling the selfvote a nulltell
11: Brief, but otherwise sound comparison of the three cases
12: I didn't realise it before, but Ren's post to Budja is much the same as he made to me (regarding the three cases thing). I agree with Budja's response.
13: Restates the Sens case
14: Questions Sen's suspicions (though, this is simply restating the question given by Scot in the previous post)
15: Asks Sens for view on Yos
16: Says he asked Sens that question for a good reason, and denies he is lurking. Asks Adel for his views.
17: Agrees that it is strange Sens didn't lump Yos with Scot
18: "Ok then"
19: Says he sees opinions in the QT Adel posted, but not much backing it up and would like to hear more of that
20: I basically agree with this on the FL versus Sens cases
21: Says he isn't great at analysis
22: Met stuff
23: Asks Adel to post views on Sens
24: More met
25: Ditto
26: Post number stuff
27: Didn't have the QT posts versus game time in head apparently. I'm not sure what the significance of that is...
28: Agrees with Adel's plan regarding FL. I want to quote here to show something:

Adel let me get this straight:

Scot is likely town (from Goat's busdrive)
FL looks scummy.
We lynch FL to keep scot (assuming we can protect him on future days) and lynch possible scum.

I guess I can agree with that.

unvote, vote FairieLord

Hitherto, Budja had been clear he saw FL as neutral. This therefore means that this post implies a deviation from his previous position. I find it odd that, if he did genuinely think of FL as neutral, he would so casually shift position (ie. without making any explanation as to why). I would add that the FL lynch was an "easy" lynch for scum to support, in that it was rooted in strong setup logic. That makes me see this as suggesting an eagerness to push an easy wagon.

29: I questioned him about the apparent inconsistency with his earlier "joining the dots" point (I didn't have the above analysis in my head at the time; all I saw was a contradiction) and he reverts back to his original position, instead emphasising the strategic validity of Adel's plan.
30: Agrees on the role-choices toda
31: Reiterates the view in 29.
32: Set of statements. None is particularly profound or revealing.
33: Votes Sens
34: Says Sen's wagon never built up because Ren's was stronger

~~~~~~~~~~~
It's very conservative play, with barely any effort at analysis and only opinions on a few players. 28 is the scummiest post in my view, for the reasons given. A lot of what Budja has said I actually think is legit (and some points I think are very good). However, looking back, he has been most active in his defence and has otherwise been fairly passive. I also don't like the singular attacks on Sensfan. Overall, I'd say moderately scummy; in that 28 is the worst thing, but his behaviour throughout has been largely avoiding of any conflict.

[vollkan]

Ren is playing like scum. He's been playing like scum all game

What is scummy about Ren's play at this point in time (or, at least, at the time you posted this?)

Rereading Yos, he comes across as very, very passive.
He usually makes reasonable, small points and summaries but hasn't actually done much with it.
He has no opinions of most players, Ren, Sens and Adel are the only three he has really commented on during my read.
He made a good case of misrepresentation on Sens in post 409 but failed to follow up on it at all which is what I dislike the most.
He easily slips right under the radar.

There's a certain irony to the above

Reading Budja, he came across as very, very passive.
He has made a few reasonable points, but has done little else
He has no options on most players; Sens is the only person he has really commented on during my read.
He made a good argument about why FL is not scummy, but then flip-flopped on it.
He easily slips right under the radar.

(And he has also failed to offer comment on my pbpa)

I'm holding my cards close to my chest for now. I want other players to contribute more, and I don't want to serve as a pathfinder for the scum to get a mislynch.

The first statement was utter nonsense. Adel had been spouting who he thought was scummy for awhile. SO why wait? At first I read this second sentence one way, but rereading it looks odd. Why would hanging Sens be serving as a pathfinder to get a mislynch? I don’t know Sens alignment…would lynching sens be a mislynch?

I remember reading the "pathfinder" thing at the time and finding it puzzling. The way I reasoned it in my head was that I figured that Adel meant that he just wanted to hear everyone's opinions, rather than simply leading with his own. What I don't get, though, is that what Adel says implies very strongly that he did have something to say about Sens which had a reasonable risk of leading to a lynch (otherwise, the sentence serves no purpose).

5.) Adel lack of putting a case together on anyone. Many time, I have seen adel tunnel vision as town and relentlessly attack who he thought was scum. Twice being on the receiving end of that. This game, he is heavily using game mechanics, lurker theory, and OOG reasoning to lightly push who he “feels is scummy”. Your list of candidates is too wide of a net.

I don't have a meta on Adel, but his play hasn't struck me as that different from normal. Also, the game mechanics has mainly been in the choosing role stage (when we definitely want game mechanics discussed) and in relation to FL. Pressuring lurkers to post is not scummy, and nor can I see anything scummy about "OOG reasoning" (by which I assume you mean QT usage?? Correct me if I am wrong).

I guess what I am saying is that I think you make a legitimate point by highlighting the lack of a case, but you also bring up things Adel has done which aren't actually scummy. As in, the absence of a case is a problem, but I don't see why what you identify is.

the fucker is scummy. Look at his posts both in isolation and in context. He evades questions, makes spammy posts, self votes, refuses to provide specific cases, is following ckd and OGML, the fucker is scum. My "wide net" post excluded him, but I can't swallow the assumptions necessary to consider him cleared. Almost every post he makes leaves me with that "ick" scum feeling.

Evidence of evasion?
Evidence of spam?
Self-voting is scummy because?
Where is the refusal to provide?
"Agreeing with" = "following"?

And then it comes down to an "ick" feeling...I've never seen Adel resort to gut before

call me erratic, but I feel like a tool. Sens is avoiding this game, the Creative team thread, and our personal QT thread. Fuck him.
unvote, vote:Sensfan

:S

OGML's 741 gets a QFT from me.

Adel's reactions here baffle me. My meta view is basically that outbursts tend to be alignment independent, and there seems to be anecdotal evidence that they are more likely to come from town than scum. However, whenever I have encountered outbursts before, they've been from newbie players. I can't recall seeing one from an experienced player, let alone someone of Adel's calibre, so I'm frankly just confused rather than suspicious.

[vollkan]

Hmm...I found the GD thread and I more or less agree with you. I think the GD thread very clearly indicates that this isn't a ploy by scum-Adel, and I think this outburst (or, more accurately, the fact that Adel has had an outburst) is a null-tell. The Sens and Ren votes are, I still think, valid sources of information, but I don't think we can read anything into to the outburst itself.

[vollkan]

I read the outburst and looked for clues of townie outrage, such as, "I'm doing all the work here," "how could you be stupid enough to want to lynch me," and the classic: "the SCUM is trying to lynch me, town, wake up!" The lack of signs of TOWN frustration is glaring.

Which would be entirely valid, except that the fact that Adel's outburst is not wholly due to game-related circumstances creates some difficulty here. Obviously, the same problem arises in relation to the desperate attacks he was making at the end.

I don't think that it is right to ignore what he said/didn't say during the outburst, but I am much less convinced of Adel's scumminess from this then I otherwise would be (again, I stress that I see the fact that Adel had an outburst as a nulltell; I am talking here about his actions during the outburst)

Consistancy is a scum tell.

Town can and should always be willing to change their minds 180 degrees in the blink of an eye when given new information, or just when re-assesing old information. In fact, it's generally better if they do; makes it harder for scum to manipulate town using the nightkill to keep those alive who trust them and kill those who don't. The only people who should be worried about consistancy are scum, because they're more worried about being lynched then about how they look.

In this case, I think Adel's sudden flip on Sensfan makes sense, and I also think it was a very pro-town thing to do.

You're conflating two completely different things here. Nobody is saying that Adel is scummy for changing his mind. The problem is that he changed her mind

without any apparent basis for doing so

Assume that at time =

t

, Person X suspects Person Y for reason A.
If, at any time= >

t

, Person X does not suspect Person Y for reason then, all else being equal (ie. no new reasons), Person X at time = >

t

is contradicting Person X at time =

t

.

For one thing, if Sens does flip scum, then the way people reacted to Adel's sudden change of heart will give us lots of information, I think.

Yes, but that is completely irrelevant as to the question of whether or not Adel is scummy.

Volkan's PBPA: I assume you want me to comment on post 28. "Joining the dots" was the most reasonable explanation, with the busdrive scum being surprised was equally likely, especially with half-concentrating scum. I mainly was following Adel's plan which was sound enough and the busdrive pushed FL into a partly scummy position.

That's not true, though. The busdrive didn't change anything.

Prior to it, you reasoned (correctly) that it was a nulltell because FL could be surprised regardless of alignment due to a failure to join the dots. The fact that there was a busdrive doesn't alter that at all. A townie who failed to joint the dots would still be surprised and so too would scum.

What I am driving at here is that it seems to me that, when Adel presented an easy lynch strategy, you contradicted your earlier reasoning process, which suggests opportunism.

His stance on FL is really confusing and feels contradictory somehow, even though I haven't really gone through it with a fine tooth comb yet.

There was an issue there in that I changed my mind once in relation to what Budja said, then I changed my mind again once Adel seemingly refuted Budja but then, on rereading, I disagreed with Adel but didn't state as such in the thread. I put it a little better in this post answering a question of Adel's:

now you have forgotten why you agreed with me?

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

See, I don't think it is unreasonable to posit that town-FL might not, at first instance, be thinking strategically enough to work out the busdriving scenario. From there, the question arises as to whether your listing would have been sufficient to join the dots for town-FL. I know I am flat-out contradicting what I said in 345, but I just don't think that the list leaves us to conclude that FL was not being genuine. It seems a bizarre strategy for scum (and, unless I am again mistaken, your argument is that FL was being deliberately disingenuous) to pick on one part of the post (the list itself) and totally ignore the rest of it (where you explicitly refer to the busdriver switch). Pretty much a classic case of Hanlon's Razor. True, FL is more competent than Budja, but that doesn't in any way serve to establish that FL's action wasn't a consequence of blunder.

Since then he's barely contributing anything, instead looking to float by with a PBPA on Budja that has no traction. He needs to take a stance on Sens/Adel.

1) I think you are mistaking lack of conviction for lack of contribution. I'm pretty sure I have given my opinion on every major point.

2) What do you mean by "no traction"? I reached a clear conclusion on Budja's scumminess and I am still pursuing the line of inquiry in relation to post 28.

3) I gave my opinion on the Sens case ages back, and I've written quite a bit on what I think of Adel (whose play I mostly just find confusing)

When he was under attack, he was active. When people have been focused elsewhere, he shifted into the shadows. I find that scummy (and I also feel Vollkan is guilty of this as well).

Examples?

[vollkan]

I'll try to explain again.

Town-FL surprised

-> failure to join-the-dots (at least slight misunderstanding of adels plans and/or role interaction).

Scum-FL surprised

-> failure to join-the-dots (

bus drive surprising

due to at least slight misunderstanding of adels plans and/or role interaction).

As a scum partly expecting a scot-kill, there is a greater chance of surprise or expectation of surprise.

Scum know of the bus-drive, town does not.

Scum would also be more likely to act surprised as they would subconsciously expecting the town to be surprised to despite the fact that the town did not know of the busdrive.

It still isn't strong at all but makes the tell a bit scummy rather than null.

(@Ren, noted. I'll look at that later)

You're mentioning two different sorts of surprise here. I've put them in different colours. Red is genuine surprise from scum; blue is feigned surprise to appear like town. Now, have a look at FL's post

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

Objectively, that most definitely is not a case of scum being genuinely surprised that their kill got busdriven. It could be scum faking a town reaction of "WTF", or it could be a town reaction of "WTF" - needless to say, the "join the dots" point you yourself raised renders the two (ie. town WTF and faked scum WTF) indistinguishable.

By your own logic, there was nothing to make it anything other than a nulltell, and yet you didn't mind departing from that logic when it would make the FL lynch more acceptable.

All I can say is that I will have to look at it closer. The back and forth and inability to express your stance on FL without confusion strikes me as scum struggling to keep track of their past stances on FL.

Why does it look like "scum" struggling to keep track of their past stances as opposed to, as I have said, town changing his mind, forgetting about exactly when, and then coming back confused? It's not exactly a particularly weird sort of mistake to make.

I disagree that contribution is equivalent to providing an opinion on everything. You have provided your stance on every major point but you haven't really...done anything. No conviction, no pressure, no real attempt to find scum, and that's what I mean by lack of contribution. I feel like you are just floating along. You're giving your stance on things as they come up, but you're not going out of your way to do anything on your own.

This really comes back to the meta thing from earlier. When I am very suspicious of someone or, if scum, have found an easy target, then I am hyper-aggressive, otherwise it isn't at all uncommon for me not to be hyperactive. There have been a few points where I had strong suspicions - Ren early on and Budja now as the best examples - but so much of the scumminess in this particular game is wide open to dispute (I'm thinking mainly of the FL case and the Adel blowup)

Moderately scummy was your conclusion. Interestingly enough, your reasons for Budja being moderately scummy is almost a perfect match to your play this game as well.

No. The fact that you think this shows you haven't read either Budja or myself with sufficient attention. I haven't had strong suspicions, but I haven't also shied away from giving my opinion and there have been numerous points where I have asked proper questions. Budja, in contrast, has almost entirely avoided giving away his positions and, when he has asked questions, they've just been the piss-easy "Adel post your views on Sensfan" variety, which don't require any actual reading on his part.

Also, your post ignores the specific actions by Budja that I find scummy, particularly 28.

Is there anywhere in the thread where you have definitely said "I think Sens is town" or "I think Sens is scum"? Your opinion of Sens lacked a conclusion. You merely said you had trouble weighing him and Ren up. Also your opinion early/midway through day 1 on Sens is a bit outdated, no?

Given that I was voting Ren at the time, saying I have trouble weighing them up should have been a pretty clear indication of where I stood. And, yeah, that is old material, but I frankly can't see what major new stuff has emerged since then. The issues with Adel really don't compel me one way or the other, and people just seem to have this general sense of him being "sloppy" which, in my experience of Sensfan, isn't peculiar. Hence, why I have not said "I think Sens is town" or "I think Sens is scum".

Your most active portions of this game are when Adel directly addresses you or calls you out to contribute. When nobody is addressing you, your posting frequency and content drops off the face of the earth.

This is bullshit. I know this point has been raised before (by Adel, IIRC), but it's just not true.

First time Adel called me out was way at the beginning where I showed quite clearly that she was not correct in her attack

Second time was when she asked me "how about now?" just five posts after I said I lacked concrete suspicions. I posted 3 days later.

Third time was the time she asked me to post the comparative case. Which I did. And then I didn't post for 3 days. Then I posted. Then another 3 days. Then, without prodding by Adel, pretty much at least one post per day.

[vollkan]

As town you have legitimate suspicions of people. When you think someone is town, you have actual reasons to think they are town. When you think someone is scum you have actual reasons to think they are scum. Townies are unlikely to confuse their stance on someone because it's what they truly believe.

On the other hand, scum are faking their stances on everyone. Scum are far more likely to confuse their stance on someone because they forgot that they had written them off as town or scum earlier, etc. They're faking all their suspicions, so it can catch up to scum if they don't keep on top of what they've said at all points.

So you confusing your stance on FL and not remembering what your stance on him was is far more likely to come from scum than town. As town, you would actually believe FL is town/scum/neutral, etc. whereas as scum you would be placing him town/scum/neutral based on what you felt was the best for your ulterior motives.

I agree that scum is more likely to shift arbitrarily, but that isn't what happened.

Look back at the sequence of posting. In essence, Budja said that it could arise from a failure to join the dots, which I agreed with. Adel chimes in by pointing out she had already connected the dots with her list. At that point in time, I said I thought Adel had made a better point. Then, when I was in the process of rereading (for my review on FL), I saw Budja's point in a different light; namely that, if a player wasn't going to be able to connect the dots initially (which I thought throughout to be reasonable from town), then it was also reasonably foreseeable that they wouldn't connect the dots from Adel's list.

I'm not denying that I changed my position, but that's a far cry from saying that I was "confusing my stance".

Ok. Elaborate on your stance on Budja for me. You listed him as moderately scummy, but now he's a strong suspicion. Is it based on that one post alone? What about post 8 in his iso read, that you gave him town cred for?

You're playing at semantics here. Somebody who is moderately scummy (ie. not obv scum) can still be a strong suspect. And, yes, post 8 gets town cred which is partly, aside from the general lack of material to make a clear judgment on, another reason for me not considering him obv scum.

See I don't agree. I think Budja has provided his opinions on any topic he's been asked to as well. What constitutes a proper question or not is pretty subjective, and I'm not sure "who has asked the most proper questions" is a good gauge for scum finding anyway.

"on any topic he's been asked to". Which is exactly what one would expect from scum trying to law low.

And I explained what I found problematic with Budja's questioning, so rather than simply zeroing in on the phrase "proper question", you could try and explain what is wrong with what I actually posted in relation to Budja's questioning, ie:

when he has asked questions, they've just been the piss-easy "Adel post your views on Sensfan" variety, which don't require any actual reading on his part

I don't find anything glaringly wrong with that stance. For the record, that was quite similar to my own stance on FL.

I'm pleased to see that you haven't read my post.

My issue was not with his stance; it was with his change in stance and the subsequent failure to explain it.

This is confusing. You merge your opinions of Adel/Sensfan together and I have no clue what your actual stance on either is.

Adel: Town or scum?
Sens: Town or scum?

I was talking entirely about Sens in that post; I don't know why I wrote Adel in.

For simplicity's sake and to end this line of questioning, I'm going to go back to my old rating system briefly.

Adel: 60. As I said before, by and large nothing in his play struck me as out of the ordinary. That was until the blowup where his play went belly-up with the desperation votes. The 10 point bump (from 50 to 60) comes from those actions; not from the blowup itself). But, I should add, I'm really hesistant about my reading of Adel because I don't know how much weight to place on the blowup actions. I'm ope

Sens: 70 (explained in my other posts)

(0 = absolute town, 50 = neutral, 100 = absolute scum)

You are still assuming that somehow contradicting yourself or changing your mind is inherently scummy, which I completly disagree with.

If Person X thinks person Y is town, then they re-think things, or something dosn't sit right, or they have a gut feeling, or whatever, and they change their mind and vote person Y, that's not a scum tell at all. Town should do that.

No. The stuff earlier regarding my own change of mind should have indicated that that isn't my view.

Stated simply, my opinion is:

Scum are more likely than town to change their mind without good reason for doing so.

It isn't scummy to change your mind. It is scummy if there is no clear pathway of reasoning that would lead to that change of mind.

If Adel's actions were good pro-town behavior, for whatever reason (and yes, gathering infromation can be a good reason), then how could that possibly be "irrelevent to the question of whether or not adel is scummy"?? That dosn't make sense, Volkan.

It's a very long bow to draw to say that Adel going weird and suddenly changing her mind without any explanation is pro-town because people's reactions will be meaningful. By that sort of definition, virtually any action can be construed as pro-town.

Wow really? How many games have you been in with him? In my opinion, this is not typical Adeltown play. At first, I thought it was because of structure of the game, but after his wide net I am certain Adel is/was scum. Not to mention later he then abandons that net to try to discredit one of his opponents.

Adel casts a wide net as scum? This is a game where Adel didn't seem to really have any extremely strong suspicions (understandably, imo) and so I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Adel may have been dealing with that by trying to go as broad as possible.

So? He used it to lynch a townie. I understand it was “tactically” sound. But still does that make it a pro-town move? I think Adel exploited the game mechanics to push his agenda.

Maybe, but I can also see town-Adel pushing exactly the same sort of case against FL. It's one of those rare circumstances where town and scum will act identically.

Everyone needs to chime in now and say if they think it was obvious that I was going to give Goat-Yos Bulletproof/Tracker.

I thought so, just because tracker is a role you want used responsibly, and Goat is the obvious choice for that.

I don't understand vollkan's thought process here. I thought he said just in previous post not realising the connection+supporting plan seems extremely unlikely, how is calling this joining dots changing the thing?

When I made my initial point about connection+supporting I assumed that a player who understood the plan at one point in time would understand it later on; and Budja made me realise that was inaccurate.

I also disagree with MichelSableheart's maths post. I also can't see scum wading through a lot of probability before making their kill. We certainly have no reason to call their play optimal given that the targeted scot rather than attempting a reverse busdrive.

Tracking result from Adel is a null tell. Scum-Adel might get goat lynched but would be likely lynched the next day.

From my perspective, Yos/Goat getting the tracker/bulletproof was obvious given the suspicion on Sens.

For a wagon with as much support as SensFan's wagon has, it's surprising how far he is away from being lynched. Scum not ready to bus yet?

QFT, most people seem to see Sens as scummy but no votes?

(still reading...)

Please respond to my last post.

[vollkan]

I agree that scum is more likely to shift arbitrarily, but that isn't what happened.
Look back at the sequence of posting. In essence, Budja said that it could arise from a failure to join the dots, which I agreed with. Adel chimes in by pointing out she had already connected the dots with her list. At that point in time, I said I thought Adel had made a better point. Then, when I was in the process of rereading (for my review on FL), I saw Budja's point in a different light; namely that, if a player wasn't going to be able to connect the dots initially (which I thought throughout to be reasonable from town), then it was also reasonably foreseeable that they wouldn't connect the dots from Adel's list.

I'm not denying that I changed my position, but that's a far cry from saying that I was "confusing my stance"

It does really seem that you were confusing your FL stance though:

Vollkan: You're baffled at why Budja calls the FL case poor, but you also called it weak. What gives?

It seems I got it confused with the Sens defence. If you recall, in my last post I had this exchange with Sens: [etc. etc.]

Hmm...Reading what you quote, I've confused myself. I vaguely remember that something made me think that your point wasn't as good as I said in 345, but I'm not sure where that thought went. I think it was subsumed in my point about Budja's failure to connect the dots, which I know I obviously then shifted on after your point. For that reason, my relative evaluation's reference to Budja is wrong. However, I did and do continue to think that the argument you are making still relies on an assumption that town FL would join the dots.

We seem to be talking at cross-purposes. There are two different definitions of confused floating around in the discussion.

When Goat was bringing up the issue of "confused", he was talking in terms of losing track of what one's opinion was and shifting as a result. See here:

So you confusing your stance on FL and not remembering what your stance on him was is far more likely to come from scum than town. As town, you would actually believe FL is town/scum/neutral, etc. whereas as scum you would be placing him town/scum/neutral based on what you felt was the best for your ulterior motives.

Now, in the first quote you pulled up, you've omitted the details which provide context:

Vollkan: You're baffled at why Budja calls the FL case poor, but you also called it weak. What gives?

It seems I got it confused with the Sens defence. If you recall, in my last post I had this exchange with Sens:

I'd go with Volkan's list, except he appears to not really care about looking at the attack in detail, given he missed the relevence about me not having any votes, and threw some general nondescript about how certain words I used are "an easy way to smear", without saying why they were bad in this case.

What was the relevance of you not having votes on you? I really don't see what the link is here. You having no votes on you has no bearing on whether or not voting someone else to L-1 is chicken

Sens had said that my argument against him was basically missing a lot of detail when, to me, it seemed pretty straightforward. I had in my mind that "case has been called weak, but I don't think it is" but wrongly applied that thought.

In short, I wasn't commenting at all on the FL case. Your selective quoting just gives that impression.

As for the second one, your quoting is more understandable, but it comes down to the definitional issue above. I wasn't confused about where I stood on FL. What confused me was that my posting record didn't match that.

To restate:
1) Case on FL arises
2) Budja raises failure to connect the dots
3) I agree
4) Adel criticises
5) I change my mind (as acknowledged in thread)
6) I begin rereading
7) I see fault in Adel's criticism when rereading for the relative evaluation and come to disagree with her and revert to my position in 3).
8) I post that change of opinion until the relative evaluation where I explicitly raise Budja's point.

There's a change of view there, but no unjustified inconsistency. The only issue comes from the fact that, in 8), I never actually directly addressed Adel's criticism. My comments there (at the bottom of the relative evaluation) reflect that I had changed my mind on Adel's criticism and the reasons for doing so, but I never explicitly said "I've changed my mind because..."

Vollkan, I'm trying to decide who I rooting for to be lynched. I'm thinking along the lines of Yosarian, MSH, Budja, or SensFan (his lurking is damning).

Which of these 4 players should I vote for, and why?

Budja.

I would also see a Sens vote as acceptable, for combined scumminess (for reasons I have given) and lurking

I haven't been able to see a clear rationale for suspecting Yos or MSH

[vollkan]

You are still assuming that somehow contradicting yourself or changing your mind is inherently scummy, which I completly disagree with.

If Person X thinks person Y is town, then they re-think things, or something dosn't sit right, or they have a gut feeling, or whatever, and they change their mind and vote person Y, that's not a scum tell at all. Town should do that.

No. The stuff earlier regarding my own change of mind should have indicated that that isn't my view.

Stated simply, my opinion is:

Scum are more likely than town to change their mind without good reason for doing so.

I don't think that's at all true; scum tend to be resistant to doing that, because people always get attacked for it, while town should be willing to change their mind as unpredictably as possible.

Why do you think that scum are more willing to change their minds?

It isn't scummy to change your mind. It is scummy if there is no clear pathway of reasoning that would lead to that change of mind.

You keep saying this, but why? I think it's a pro-town way to act (that is, a way to act that helps the town; the opposite of anti-town.)

It's not a question of whether or not it helps the town in an objective sense; it's a matter of what it says about how a person is thinking subjectively.

Taking the Budja thing as an example: He made a convincing point which should have precluded any suspicion of FL. In short,

At time

1

, Budja held the view that

FL was not scummy

because

town could fail to join the dots

At time

2

, Budja held the view that

FL was scummy because

[unspecified]

Unless the reason "town could fail to join the dots" was either refuted or outweighed, there was simply no basis upon which town-Budja could shift his position like that. If he genuinely thought as town that town-FL could have failed to join the dots, I can't fathom a situation where he would simply backflip without a damned good reason for doing so.

It's a very long bow to draw to say that Adel going weird and suddenly changing her mind without any explanation is pro-town because people's reactions will be meaningful. By that sort of definition, virtually any action can be construed as pro-town.

Well, no; actions are pro-town they help the town. If changing your mind suddenly dosn't at all hurt the town (and it dosn't), and if doing like that gets reactions that give the town tons of information, then it is pro-town.[/quote]

It all depends on what sort of perspective you take. This is kind of getting back to the rule utilitarianism discussion we were having a while back:

The immediate consequences of Adel's backflip have been pretty mundane.
However, the consequence of town accepting as legitimate that people can suddenly backflip would be a massive boon to scum.

What is it in OGML and CKD's arguments that fails to sway you?

I'll go through everything in detail. Obviously, up until now it was more just a lack of being persuaded, but this is an effort to fully explain why I was not persuaded.

OGML's arguments

- Yuck. Yos' and Sens' votes are both also terrible. What is the deal here guys? How slow was this game moving?

- This whole wagon sucks. Budja, Vollkan seem like the honest participants. Yos and Sens' stick out as the scummy voters.

Yos's vote was based on Budja's reasoning and Budja's reasoning was fine. I don't see a piggybacking vote as inherently scummy.

- Yos' post 350 is like a giant, terrible smear campaign against ren that entirely ignores the possibility that Sera is who the scum may have been busdriven to. If that is the case, they very well may have been targeting someone off the Ren wagon hoping to land a twofer.

Fair point is that Yos ignored the busdriving thing. Though, for the same reason as with FL, I'm not prepared to read that much into that omission.

With that in mind, I come to the issue of it being a "giant, terrible smear campaign". The language Yos used in that post was vague, hence why I questioned it at the time. I was happy with his explanation, though. Personally, I'm more wary of scum wifom traps, but I don't think it is fair to characterise it as a smear effort. Yos admitted it wasn't conclusive.

- Yos

could very well be

attempting to save Sens by refocusing pressure on Ren

That phrase invalidates this argument imho. Nothing has been raised here to suggest that Yos seeking to save Sens is remotely more likely than Yos-town genuinely having issues with Ren.

- Goat's busdriver reveal: scot is town, goat is town, goat was (obviously, based on his flip) incorrect in assessing FL's reactions. I think the most telling reaction (and attempts to use the sera death) is still Yos. This also p much clears Ren, as scot was not voting Ren so if he had died, Ren would have been autolynched.

Telling because?

- Post 513 from Yos acknowledges that the busdrive makes scot town, but ignores that it makes Ren town as well, and that he's been trying to use the Sera kill to his advantage to press a Ren lynch. Yos is so scum.

I missed the basis for the Ren confirmation myself, so I in no way see why it should condemn Yos.

-----
That's the OGML case done.

CKD

1.) First and for most was his defense of Sens. Sens was acting quite scummy. His (sens) attack and vote of FL (town) was stretchy at best. Adeltown has nothing to gain by defending Sens especially in light of his actions. Adelscum defending Senstown on the other hand not only gains a buddy, but if Sens flips town, buys himself town creds.

That's bad logic, CKD.

IF you think Sensfan is town

(and it sounds like you do, from the rest of your post),

then Adel defending him has to be considered a pro-town act.

Now, if Sensfan is scum, then Adel defending sensfan is definatly a big point against him. But I hate the "X defended Y, and Y was town, so X must have been scum!" argument you seem to be going for here. If a pro-town town person thinks someone else is town, they bloody well should defend them.

the bolded is a fucking silly statement and I think someone who has played mafia as much as you knows this. there is a big difference between someone defending someone they think are town when that person is doing towny actions AND what has happened here. Sens was being all types of scummy and Adel was defending him based on...on...I am not even sure, a fucking meta? A meta that now Sens is riding hard with lurking up a storm.

The quoted is a fucking silly attack.

Yos isn't saying that Adel's defending of Sens was a towntell or anything or the sort; merely that it's wrong to draw the assumption that Adelscum was trying to buy townie brownies. If you notice, Yos doesn't actually make any comment on the quality or otherwise of Adel's particular defence (the meta defence seemed fair enough to me at the time) but on the simpler question of whether Adel's defence was necessarily scummy.

CKD's initial post said NOTHING about the quality of Adel's defences, so I think it unreasonable to turn around and then attack Yos on that basis when Yos was responding directly to the point which CKD had raised.

Just a thought here, why would Budscum kill his only way control powers? This makes Yos, Sens, Adel, look worse in my opinion.

It is all WIFOM of course,

but should be considered.

Bolded.

Yes, it probably does make them look slightly worse, but there is such hideous wifom involved that I have little to no confidence in the reliability of this argument.

That's the second time you said that, CKD; why do you think Adel was defending Sensfan BECAUSE he was lurking? Adel never said anything of the sort.

so the answer is you are not reading

curious adel, what has sens done or not done that has given you such a town read on him (pre whiny townie post)?

not played up to his level, and I take a lack of investment as a town tell for him.

"lack of investment" = "lurking".

As I understood it, Adel was talking not so much about lurking (as in, not posting) as lack of meaningful contributions.

------
And that's it. I don't think Yos is particularly pro-town, but the "cases" as presented against him are sorely lacking and will not be getting my endorsement.

@vollkan: Why is your case against Budja stronger than the points you brought up against Sensfan earlier in your opinion?

The Sens case consists of a few particular incidences of scumminess which, whilst serious, are not damning because they are the sort of thing I can see as possibly coming about via sloppy town play.

In contrast, as my PBPA explains, Budja's play is consistently flawed and the 28 issue is something which I think very strongly suggests a lack of sincerity and opportunism.

Why aren't you voting?

It's not that I make a conscious decision not to vote. I have received the "Why aren't you voting?" question in other games as well, and I think it mostly comes from the fact that, unless I am champing at the bit for a lynch of somebody, I'm pretty much content with simply having my suspicions expressed verbally. Given that I think a person's reasons are the paramount concern, whether or not they are voting isn't relevant to me (unless, of course, the voting is inconsistent with reasons - but, again, that just underscores that I think reasons are the paramount factor)

[vollkan]

Ugh, I just noticed I forgot to do a detailed review of the MSH case. Will do in my next post.

[vollkan]

I haven't been able to see a clear rationale for suspecting Yos or MSH

What is it in OGML and CKD's arguments that fails to sway you?

Adel/MSH time.

OGML

- Adel is rubbing me the wrong way, focusing too much on theory/breaking-the-game and too little on analyzing the other players.

Yes, she was doing a heavy amount of theory and game-breaking, but as he pointed out he was also doing more analysis than the average player as well. I'm also, additionally, making an allowance for the fact that this is typical Adel play, focussing on logically deconstructing the setup

- Top of page six, Adel seems to be asking leading Qs of seraphim that are designed specifically to make him look scummy, not actually ascertain whether what he did was more likely to come from scum

This doesn't really tackle the issue that your questions were extremely leading. It explains why you asked him anything on the subject in the first place, but does not explain what I actually found scummy about the questions. Again you seem to be dodging the main points I've brought up in favor of answering something related but easier to explain.

126 is not leading at all.

125 is leading, but only in the sense of it identifies faults in Sera's play.

- Adel's vote and explanation of wanting to see if anyone would follow her is very scummy. There was a whole lot more to work with than just a lurker.

The fact that this apparently did get Voll posting does not excuse the fact that a lurkerhunt or even a lurkerprod-vote was not really appropriate at the time, and seemed to have functioned simply to allow you to ignore the major game movements happening at the time.

IIRC, it wasn't his entire focus and, more importantly, it was a legit info-gathering tool (ie. it wasn't simply a lurker-push)

- Ironic that in post 382 Adel doesn't want to "serve as a pathfinder" for a mislynch but then as far as I can tell ends up being the major thrust behind the FL mislynch.

As I said before: "I remember reading the "pathfinder" thing at the time and finding it puzzling. The way I reasoned it in my head was that I figured that Adel meant that he just wanted to hear everyone's opinions, rather than simply leading with his own. What I don't get, though, is that what Adel says implies very strongly that he did have something to say about Sens which had a reasonable risk of leading to a lynch (otherwise, the sentence serves no purpose). "

In short, the pathfinder thing doesn't bother me, though the Sens thing does.

- Post 391 is a cheap shot from Adel. Its like a madlib where the blank says Scummy Reason underneath it. She doesn't even have to come up with her own, everyone else will just fill it in themselves after this post.

I hate the "posting elsewhere on site" thing and the inferences it leads to (I basically think lurking is alignment independent unless there is damned good evidence to the contrary), but it is so common that I have difficulty seeing it as a scumtell

- Digesting Adel's post of the QT... honestly, it looks good right up to Adel calling people being willing to go after Sens a town-tell for him. The wagon on Sens at this point was a whopping two votes. I'm pretty sure Sens is scum and Adel is either scum with him or totally taken in by virtue of sharing a QT with him.

I'm confused here; I don't get what you mean.

- OK, hold the phone. Adel's quicklynch FL plan looks good at first glance, but on a deeper level it is seriously, seriously terrible. I don't know why at this point Goat is the only one who has pointed out that Ren is very very probably town based on busdrive etc but this fact leaves FL and Sens as the only really viable wagons left. So Adel suddenly comes up with some crazy break-the-game theory of why FL should be quicklynched no questions asked? I call shenanigans. Adel was saving Sens' bacon, pure and simple.

The theory was sound. Again, it was one of those rare cases where town and scum could be expected to act identically.

Adel's failure to grasp that Ren is now p much confirmed is a major red flag. She's been 100% on top of every other mechanical nuance in this game, yet ignores this one and continues pushing the "whose alt are you" and "signal/noise ratio" non-arguments against him.

I missed the Ren confirmation as well, and Adel isn't infallible.

Adel's spectacularly over-the-top defense of Sens makes sense only if she truly knows his alignment.

Because...?

Adel's indirect answers to almost all of the points I raised regarding her is very, very strawman.

They weren't indirect.

CKD

1.) First and for most was his defense of Sens. Sens was acting quite scummy. His (sens) attack and vote of FL (town) was stretchy at best. Adeltown has nothing to gain by defending Sens especially in light of his actions. Adelscum defending Senstown on the other hand not only gains a buddy, but if Sens flips town, buys himself town creds.

What was wrong with the reasoning of the Sens defence?

The first statement was utter nonsense. Adel had been spouting who he thought was scummy for awhile. SO why wait? At first I read this second sentence one way, but rereading it looks odd. Why would hanging Sens be serving as a pathfinder to get a mislynch? I don’t know Sens alignment…would lynching sens be a mislynch?

The "cards close to my chest" thing is weird, I agree - but seem my quoted bit above on the 'pathfinder' defence.

2.) Something about Adel’s 180 in taking the tracker role in their QT thread. One post he offers Sens whatever role he wants, the very next post, Adel takes Tracker. I would like to know what really happened to make adel change his mind. Nothing in the game happened during that time (post 268-270, if I am going my times right) …Though Adel was active on the site at that time…just not in the game. I thinking there was planning going on during that time and that is why you snatched up tracker so fast.

Conjecture. Not enough to warrant my suspicion.

3.) the whole goat thing. I think it is convenient that you just happened to target goat (without having much if any suspicion on him) to confirm exactly what he had already claimed.

This is a valid argument.

5.) Adel lack of putting a case together on anyone. Many time, I have seen adel tunnel vision as town and relentlessly attack who he thought was scum. Twice being on the receiving end of that. This game, he is heavily using game mechanics, lurker theory, and OOG reasoning to lightly push who he “feels is scummy”. Your list of candidates is too wide of a net.

See above on this. I think Adel hasn't been playing unreasonably different from normal, particularly when taking account of the weird setup.

Not a lot I can say to this post, since Adel quit the game. I agree with most that his melt down was a null tell. However, I think Adel knew that I had him pinned against the wall with my case. Instaed of addressing my case, he flips out.

Given the RL factors involved, I'm unwilling to entertain this inference.

MS post (882) still seem chalked full of assumptions (and lack of assumptions) to serve an end goal.

Valid argument. Somewhat of an allowance for the complex nature of the thing he was attempting, but it is still a deeply flawed appraoch.

-------------------------
Okay, some of the arguments raised against Adel are legitimate. And I'd add my own suspicions about the Sens attack in blowup. It's definitely a stronger case than that against Yos, but the scumtells here are all contingent ones, which makes me less than comfortable about it going to lynch (contra Sens)

[vollkan]

To the willing to vote list: my top 2 considerations are Sens and vollkan.

Because?

I kind of see what you mean about Adel laying back on day 1, but it seemed more like an information gathering stratagy then anything with anti-town motives to me.

I'm beginning to form the impression that it may well just be a consequence of people not liking Adel's playstyle combined with (as reflected in some of the comments I rebutted) a gut-based suspicion arising from the FL lynch result. Adel is hard to read at the best of times, let alone when he is giving extra attention to game-theory.

[vollkan]

Vollkan is skyrocketing from "mildly suspicious" to "pretty much a lock for 3rd member of the Michel-Yos scumteam"

Because I don't agree with the cases against them?

@Ojanen: Going to get around to answering the heart of my question?

[vollkan]

Vote: Busdriver

I agree with Scot; Budja shouldn't be trusted with the busdriver power. It makes much more sense to give him vig.

[vollkan]

Vote: Vigilante

[vollkan]

I disagree with you here vollkan. I have played with Adel numerous times and never have I seen him play this way. At first, I was suspicious but chalked it up to Adel trying to bust the game mechanic (or at least work it). They his later played got super wishy washy, used a huge net, then was OMGUSy. then there was the flake. Perhaps his play was strange because events in RL was leading up to the flake. But I was getting decent scum vibes from Adel right about the time he was heavily defending Sens....the FL result only added to that.

What was the OMGUSy stuff exactly?

To address everything else:

This game is peculiar both in the setup and, at various points, in the level of activity. Those are two factors on their own which I think are relevant, but there's also an issue of the whole being bigger than the sum of the parts because, combined, I think they have the potential to seriously affect playstyle.

I'm going to quote something I said earlier here:

Adel casts a wide net as scum? This is a game where Adel didn't seem to really have any extremely strong suspicions (understandably, imo) and so I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Adel may have been dealing with that by trying to go as broad as possible.

It's a reasonable argument to say that, all else being equal, Adel casting an unusually wide net would be scummy. But my quibble is that all else is definitely NOT equal here. I'm saying this as somebody who has himself been unable to nail down any (speaking relatively to other games) firm suspicions here.

As a preliminary matter, put yourself in what, if town, would be Adel's position: you're in a complicated game and you don't have clear suspicions. In those circumstances, is doing what Adel did really that problematic? I think that a broad approach was at least a reasonably probable town reaction.

The FL result is, again as I have said before, unreadable based on the result because it did seem to be the optimum strategy at the time.

[vollkan]

Vote: Goatrevolt

I know I am not scum, and so since you have claimed that you tracked me, you must be scum. I'm extremely surprised by that, but it has to be true. It sounds like the kill has been submitted, which means my time is limited (thus making my vote purely symbolic).

I suspect Goat and Budja are probably scum together, but Budja, if you are not scum, for the sake of this game bus from me to Goat.

[vollkan]

Hell yes I predicted the Vollkan vigging.

Bow-chicka-bow-wow

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

[vollkan]

Hell yes I predicted the Vollkan vigging.

Bow-chicka-bow-wow

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_your_base

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_Accomplished

[vollkan]

I believe vollkan. Vollkan is town.

Hurry up vollkan, who's the REAL scum? Help us find scum so that the town still has a chance to win even after that goatrevolt scumbag has vigged you! We can't do it without you. Halp!

Hehehhehhhhehhehe

Glad to see somebody has some sense

Goat is certainly scum.

Budja is very likely scum.

I don't know about the third. Possibly Yos/MSH or Ojanen

Yes, I'm obviously not going to believe him. I'm not that stupid

Why do you think it so inconceivable that Goat could be scum?

[vollkan]

Why do you think it so inconceivable that Goat could be scum?

As I told you, that would be absolutely, totally, and in all other ways inconceivable!

Nothing in this game objectively precludes you from being scum, though. And I have personal proof-positive that you

are

scum - though, I know that it's going to take my death to prove it.

[vollkan]

1. The bus drive from day 1.
a. Confirmed Scot, the strongest power role as town.

Small price to pay for getting you semi-confirmed.

b. Confirmed Ren Hoek, the player sitting at L-1 and a likely lynch as very likely town.

Ditto.

Plus, the validity of this point is predicated upon Ren and yourself not being scum together.

c. Caused the scum kill to fall on Seraphim, a suspicious and nonthreatening player, wasting its effectiveness.

Ditto.

2. I call you out when you are under moderate though not lynchable suspicion from a large number of players, and take the tracker role specifically because you will be an easy lynch on day 3.

3. I say that I track you making the kill and claim it. I am scum that everyone has as confirmed town.

Why would I throw myself away to get you killed?

Fixed. And I'll answer the bolded question here.

Option A) There are more than 3 scum. Vigging me plus a scumkill would create a situation where scum auto-win. As such, you wouldn't actually be throwing yourself away at all - you'd just be capitalising on the gullibility of everybody else, including myself.

Option B) You cocked up badly. You were avoiding like the plague trying to name your fake "trackee" (me). If you could avoid naming the trackee, then when I died you could claim that the busdriver (Budja, who, given his highly suspected status, would be a viable sacrifice even if he is scum - though he needn't be for you to pull this strategy) was obviously scum. This would explain why you were so desperate to get the vig role initially (and I'd love to see how, in the QT, you persuade Budja to let you take vig) when, if you were town, it would clearly be optimal for you to take busdriver. You then claimed it was all "gambit" which is a pathetically easy bluff for scum to make in an effort to justify anything

[vollkan]

EBWOP. To explain further why Option B) is viable. If there are 3 scum then the strategy in question would drop the situation from 7:3 (current) to 4:3 where, subject to the role distribution on D4, scum could pull a quick-kill before a lynch occurs and thereby win the game.

[vollkan]

Woo.

Ahem...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

Really good game Korts. The setup was even more enjoyable than normal Deep South and I think the balance was right; had Goat not been canonised so early on, it could very easily have gone in town's favour.

[vollkan]

Huh? My post has no text in it.

Adel copied it (thanks), but I'll try again:
Woo.

Ahem...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

Really good game Korts. The setup was even more enjoyable than normal Deep South and I think the balance was right; had Goat not been canonised so early on, it could very easily have gone in town's favour.

[vollkan]

Thanks again Adel.

Just to test the URL once more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

[vollkan]

Rejoice, for I am no longer mute.

[vollkan]

Thanks again Adel.

Just to test the URL once more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

so my posting that link, you are accusing me of being guilty of hubris, or what? I'm not very clear on what you are attempting to communicate.

Oh. No. It wasn't in reference to you at all.

You probably didn't see it but on p. 46-47 OGML and I had this exchange (I'll just quote the final post, since it covers it all):

Hell yes I predicted the Vollkan vigging.

Bow-chicka-bow-wow

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_your_base

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_Accomplished

As in, all the time I knew just how completely and utterly wrong OMGL was, despite his boo-yahing. Now he can see why