Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia II {Game Over!}

[CounselWolf]

/confirm

[CounselWolf]

Send: Narsis

- This is your "Get Out of Jail NOW!" card speaking.

Send: doctor no

- You deleted some of the lines from "You Know My Name".

[CounselWolf]

@Narsis: Your enthusiasm is what earned you my vote. Overzeal = scum.

@DBG: You make me laugh. A ton.

[CounselWolf]

As for the rest of your post, you make many valid points in your post. I think sending

2 scum is obviously the best choice

but sending 2 confirmed townies would be a good thing too.

How so? I think it would be a bad choice because they would vote "No" on each other, gaining the Daykill or the Prison Immunity. Not so much. 1 possible scum vs. 1 confirmed townie seems to be most viable.

@Narsis: Doesn't matter when they were sent out, you still creep me out. And you claimed to be evil. You have been weighed and measured.

[CounselWolf]

evil i may be, but i am 100% pro-town. however, i shall let my play speak for me and leave the final decision to the town.

And here, we have our second early game claim. I don't really think you should be taking my Random Sends as my gospel. I'm just trying to get a rise out of you, but please, don't be so flighty and defensive. It makes you seem a little bit...skittish, I'll say as of now. Since we have until Groundhog Day to come to a consensus, I'm more than certain that my votes will change to someone more legitimately scummy.

anyway...i just thought of something: would a miller traditionally know he's a miller? what about a death miller?

With the amount of pretzeliness we've been told to expect, I think it could go either way. Lowell hasn't really said enough to give us a tell as to whether or not he truly is a miller/death miller.

[CounselWolf]

unsend: Narsis

unsend: doctor no

I want my hands free so that I can comment without the burden of overreactions to my Random Sends.

I think that, because of the very nature of the game theory behind the Prisoner's Dilemma, that our best bet to rid our town of scum is DKs, so we should send confirmed townies into the Dilemma to empower them. This is of course, embracing the idealism of others, because if there's anything like the "Master Interrogator" role like there was in PD 1, we're all going to have a fun time. I'm also not going to FOS anybody 'til all of us have more evidence.

@The Millers: how do we know that youse guys aren't just playacting the part of Millerdom so that we don't investigate you, lest we get a guilty result? I'm not suspicious of either of you yet, I'd just like to know how we can get around this bit of confusion.

[CounselWolf]

[quote="Empking]Let's just gert six day-vigs.

Excellent point. Too bad there probably aren't day-vigs in this set-up.
[/quote][/quote]

Well, seeing as one of the possible results of a No choice is a 100% DK...I mean, unless we're going to get screwed whatever path we take, I think this is rather irrelevant. Question: why try and discourage the dayvig solution without even making an attempt to propose an alternative?

[CounselWolf]

where does it say that percentages will be revealed?

Special Rule #7 says that answers of Yes/No scenarios and percentages in Yes/Yes scenarios will be revealed to us.

[CounselWolf]

Well, perhaps, as opposed to "voting" for players, our first course of action would be to "vote" for a plan. That is to say, someone should compile all the plans into a post, and we'll do a mini-"vote" type thing to determine what approach the majority of us support. This in mind, if anybody thinks my idea has any merit for organizational purposes, I'd be more than willing to compile a post with all the plans quoted to the basis of their content.

[CounselWolf]

@Percy: Thanks for the list.

Anyhow:

Plan: 2B

for the purposes of Day 1

only

, because I think that at this point, information is very important, and any vigging we do shouldn't be "blind" (that is to say, I don't think any vigging is blind, but I think that vigging without daycop investigations is just silly). To quote all those PSA's that are shoved down our throats, "Knowing is half the battle". I think that scaling it back to 2A might be good for Day 2 on, until, of course, I'm given a better alternative.

[CounselWolf]

Wow, dripping goofball getting in there with another great bit of wisdom. Problem is, you didnt do a very good job of convincing me.

Do you have a sense of humor?

[CounselWolf]

@counsel: I will try to make things more obvious in the future. I will post *BLATANT SARCASM* in the future. For the record I am a bit more dry with my humor.

Sarcasm is the most difficult form of humor to communicate via electronic transfer.

Perhaps you should try slapstick, or perhaps the occasional bit of wordplay?

(Note: I am, in fact, just messing with you.)

[CounselWolf]

Every other plan so far that I have seen gets about 8 people killed. In this game hacing a third of the people wiped out in the first go is not a valid option. That leaves the potential for another disaster on day 2 and making the game unwinnable for the town at that point.

You are strawmanning badly the plan for sending townie players and getting 4 investigations and 2 daykills, or 3 investigations and 3 daykills, where the daykills only get used on a "guilty". This gets 8 people killed does it???

I think he's talking about the possibility that we use all 6 dayvigs, and then the mafia and the possible SK killing one person each.

[CounselWolf]

I know that that objection applies to the plan of getting 6 day-vigs, which is why it is a terrible plan. But he said:

Every other plan so far that I have seen gets about 8 people killed.

Which clearly does not apply to the plan of sending the 6 townies or 4 townies + 2 millers and getting 3 investigations/3 daykills or 4 investigations/2 daykills. Nor, in fact, does it apply to my plan which involves executing only 2 people, assuming they comply. So, indeed he is engaging in very blatant straw-manning.

Ah. I see now. He presents the original argument as ridiculous up front to attempt to get his readers into the the mindset of...ridiculousness, so that he can set it up as a straw man to knock it down. Gotcha, ortolan. Well done.

Perhaps he might know of another faction of anti-town killers?

[CounselWolf]

I don't know about this; I still think Sly's behavior, ie the "Oh yes I'm a miller too. Indeed. Yes. Indeed." is a little sketch, but I'm willing to belay the feeling that I'm getting in my gut (probably my liver, but it might also be appendicitis) and

Send: Lowell

Send: SlySly

[CounselWolf]

I don't know about this; I still think Sly's behavior, ie the "Oh yes I'm a miller too. Indeed. Yes. Indeed." is a little sketch, but I'm willing to belay the feeling that I'm getting in my gut (probably my liver, but it might also be appendicitis) and

Send: Lowell

Send: SlySly

I believe sly's claim as I think multiple millers fits with a game like this, in which we'll have tons of investigative roles going around. If there weren't something to balance it out (multiple false-guilties and false innocents) the roles would be too powerful.

I think that's why I'm prepared to give Sly the benefit of the doubt. The possibility of a second miller isn't what's bothering me. It's the way he claimed it that's a little sketchy. It doesn't sit well with me, but I'm willing to forgive it for the moment.

[CounselWolf]

so what now?

None of you other players really stand out as super town or super scum to me....it's hard on the first day.

Well, we can request to end the day and leave it at that, or we can try and analyze each other into the ground until the deadline, to little avail.

I think I support ending the day. The only people we can be sure about are the millers, and perhaps we can try and reason out what some of the roles are.

[CounselWolf]

I'll

Send: Plum

for now, but I reserve the right to keep my 2^nd (or technically 4^th) send for someone I feel better about trusting. I'm not so sure about Narsis at this point, but if I see something more convincing, I'll send him.

[CounselWolf]

Hooray Abstract Actuary! Many happy returns!

[CounselWolf]

Hooray killa seven! Many happy returns!

[CounselWolf]

I think, especially on day 1, we should send the 6 most townie people into Prison...

????????????????????????????????

????????????????????????????????

Verily, friends.

VERILY.

I'd like to know what the excessive question marks are about.

[CounselWolf]

EBWOP: DG's question marks, that is.

[CounselWolf]

I think, especially on day 1, we should send the 6 most townie people into Prison...

????????????????????????????????

????????????????????????????????

Verily, friends.

VERILY.

I'd like to know what the excessive question marks are about.

Uh, the fact that apparently AA really didn't read the game at all, considering he's up for the plan that most of us think is crap.

I should rephrase: I third the excessive question marxism.

[CounselWolf]

I don't understand the questions. I still think we should send the six most townie players into Prison tonight. And from what I've read most people agree with me (that was Plan B, unless I've missed something).

My confusion stems from which powers you want, as in the dayvig-to-dayvestigation ratio.

[CounselWolf]

EBWOP: Mainly, AA, you say that you can see any ratio, but then you renege that by saying you think information is most important. Logical, but please clarify your preference for somebody slow like me.

[CounselWolf]

You basically want me to pick my ideal distribution since I listed a range. I would say 4/2. With 4 investigations and 2 full days to discuss things, I think 2 kills is a good amount to have tomorrow.

Merci.

[CounselWolf]

Sorry Vel-Rahn, ongoing games and all.

sounds like a good way to avoid needing to give proof.

It also sounds like a good way to be ethical. Think what you will though.

[CounselWolf]

How is her claim scummy? If it was only to force people into prison I would understand; but also learning their choices seems like more town than scum to me.

Why?

(Prison manipulation seems like a scum power to me.)

In PD 1 there was a Protown Master Interrogater role that could set the responses to whatever they want.

[CounselWolf]

If you apply Occam's razor to anyone, you get a town result. Its pointless.

Complete strawman. Occam's Razor = the most simple explanation. I am

not

saying that purely statistically DGB is likely to be town. I am saying that the simplest exlanation for one who claimed her power combined with the results of her use of her power (e.g., dead luker scum whom no one was strongly suspecting) points away from her being Mafia (and doesn't point too much to an SK-like role, though it's a possibility, of course); it does, however, point to Town-DGB using her role to try to glean some info on the players the Town was finding scummiest. Her being Town is the simplest explanation for what has happened.

WIFOM.

If you dismiss my argument as WIFOM, how in the world do you plan to legitimately argue that DGB's is a scummy power to have?

QFT. I think that (generally) WIFOM is used as scapegoat rationale to avoid arguing a topic for fear of sticking one's neck out too far, and false WIFOM-ing tends to come from scum/persons without an understanding of WIFOM.

Circular reasoning is either scum/confusion.

[CounselWolf]

Plum: Areyou awarethat sending two scum in and telling them to go yes 100 is the worse possibility?

Well, they say 100%. Barring any unforseen roles (prison manipulation), they are injected with a poison that has 100% effectiveness, and they die 100% of the time.

I might just be slow, but am I missing something?

[CounselWolf]

Can we come to some consensus over what sort of pair we're trying to send within a few days, at least?

Plan 2 - more powers.
Plan 3 - less presumed-scum.

I will continue to stand by Plan 2 because I think that knowledge/powers are power. I think that Plan 3 relies a bit more on us, and not that I distrust our abilities, I'd prefer the concrete facts of investigations.

Unless that can be messed up by roles too...ugh. I honestly don't want to think about that.

[CounselWolf]

Plum: Areyou awarethat sending two scum in and telling them to go yes 100 is the worse possibility?

Well, they say 100%. Barring any unforseen roles (prison manipulation), they are injected with a poison that has 100% effectiveness, and they die 100% of the time.

I might just be slow, but am I missing something?

Please tell me why the scum would suicide.

Because we, as the town, would kill them otherwise. We'd vig them. Unless the scum are dayvig proof?

[CounselWolf]

I fully support sending DGB and myself to the Women's Correctional Facility as a town/town No/No answer pair for Pair #2.

I disagree. I think we should decide on what would technically be Pair #3 (Either the Town-No/Town-No or the Scum-Yes/Scum-Yes) before we remove you and DGB from the discussion.

[CounselWolf]

Also, if we do send DGB it should be as a daycop.

Because we know she will kill you as a dayvig.

Makes you sweat, does it?

[CounselWolf]

At least send one scumpair.

Question, ABR: if it came too close to the deadline and Plan 3 supporters were outnumbered, which would you choose: end the day, or acquiesce and agree to send another town pair?

[CounselWolf]

You don't believe I don't want town to have that power?

( I know you can't be say no to the "Town seems to support vig vigs who they want." bit because just look at thereactionsto DGB's posts.)

Vig's don't lie.
Cops can.

Cops don't kill.
Vigs can.

Vigs kill once. False cops can lead us to miskill and imprison more.

[CounselWolf]

It seems that Plan 3 has the majority - I believe there are enough people who are comfortable with it, and many others who are strong advocates. If someone wants to check, go ahead

I'm going to check, but I don't think any planvotes have changed.

[CounselWolf]

I've spent a lot of time thinking about our plans. I have come to the conclusion (again) that Plan 2 is optimal play, and anything other than that is reacting to unknown forces which can be massaged into whatever people like.

Have you changed your opinion? For the purposes of my following plancount, I'm going to put you as a Plan 3-ite, because you seem fairly adamant about Plan 3 now. I would also like an explanation as to why you have changed. That is to say, whether it is for town unity or because you actually think it is meritorious.

(1)

- Plan 1(?) - Albert

(8.5)

- Plan 2 - Percy (B), Counselwolf (B), Plum (B), Narsis (B), RossWilliam (E), doctor no (B), Abstract Actuary (B), Empking, hp[leaves] (0.5),

(7.5)

- Plan 3 - Kublai(A), zach, Vel-Rahn Koon (2 scum 2 town only), Moratorium (2 scum 2 town only), The Central Scrutinizer, solorpg, hp[leaves] (0.5), ortolan (B)

(3)

No Planvotes: Seraphim (being replaced), killa seven, Goofball

This is your own latest planvote count. It appears on page 19, in Post 459.

Plan vote: send scum pairs to the slammer.

ABR also flips to Plan 3.

Without further ado, a new plancount:

(0)

- Plan 1

(7.5)

- Plan 2 (CounselWolf, Plum, Narsis, RossWilliam, doctor no, AbstractActuary, Empking, hp[leaves])

(9.5)

- Plan 3 (KublaiKhan, zachattack, Vel-Rahn Koon, Moratorium, The Central Scrutinizer, solorpg, ortolan, Albert B. Rampage, DrippingGoofball, hp[leaves])

As before, hp[leaves] has a half vote.

I have eliminated subplan votes.

Plan 3 is currently in the majority.

[CounselWolf]

Argh triple post.

Unsend

Well, if we go with Plan 3 (looks more and more likely), I will send Empking and Narsis.

[CounselWolf]

Narsis doesn't seem that scummy to me, I'm not sure what everyone is seeing there.

It's the skittishness he showed during the RVS (or the RSS in this case) that really bugs me. And his drop from the radar. Where he is at?

My town sends will be Plum and DGB. I suggest Plum and Sly get daycops, and Lowell and DGB get dayvigs.

[CounselWolf]

EBWOP: I meant to say that I agree with the second thing of yours I quoted. Oops.

[CounselWolf]

Send: Empking

Send: Narsis

Die scum.

[CounselWolf]

send DGB

lets see how this turns out.

Scum/Scum, doctor no.

That's why you're up for being sent.

[CounselWolf]

EBWOP: Or at least,

were

up for sending.

[CounselWolf]

DGB will vig whoever she feels like. She should not get the vig.

No she won't. If she does, she gets vigged. It's simple.

People seem to ber fine with her vigging who she feels like. She won't be vigged.

That's because she feels like vigging you. We're all fine with that if you come out of the Prisoner's Dilemma tonight. However, if she decided to vig, say...Plum, that'd be a different story.

[CounselWolf]

unsend Narsis, send RossWilliam

Unity is key.

[CounselWolf]

Send:Plum
Send: DGB

Don't die townies.

[CounselWolf]

Wait, the claimed millers aren't killing each other?

Are we recommending that claimed millers get vig powers???

Am I hallucinating?

No; that's been the sentiment all along.

Are you speaking out now? Do we need to halt the sending?

STOP THE PRESSES!?