Cosmos Mafia (Postgame)

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

*sigh* you're both going to make this really difficult because of course you are

Thanks, that was really super helpful.

With the amount of shit you have given me the entire game for daring to do such things as disagree with your thoughts or be unsure of my read on you, I have officially run out of patience for what feels like you intentionally avoiding to try to solve this game.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I’m also frustrated with you because I strongly believe Fire can’t be lunar and you pretty much just dismissed that. So if you’re go to ignore what I consider to be an extremely valid take,

We discussed this specific read, at length, for a considerable amount of time.

I am done discussing this specific read for now. I would like to solve the game at large.

We can come back to the Firebringer-Lunar read.

But I would like to discuss other things that will solve more of the game now.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

on Page 338

As an aside, some people change their forum scroll settings so what is Page 338 to you may not be to them, and we could have avoided a lot of this nonsense if you just linked the first post you wanted discussed.

This is fair and I hadn't considered it. What CSF linked is accurate to what I meant, thanks CSF.

I'm frustrated that it was ignored in the first place because it was a sizable chunk of the conversation yesterday.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

HEY I was pretty sure I answered you yesterday and was trying to find that post. I think it makes sense yes but why aren’t you also making arguments about who you think can’t be Lunar, when I’ve asked you about that like a gazillion times already?

Okay. So to be very, explicitly clear: you think CSF, T-Bone, and Magician do not make sense as Solar, based on what was discussed there? It's important to me that this is explicit because it shows clearly in the thread that you've put thought towards the subject, and it makes it a lot harder for scum to backpedal on it later on. That's why I'm harping on about it so much.

I have started with the reads that seem very simple and intuitive to me in a way that I'd expect most of the thread to agree with. It just so happens that the simple reads seem to be the Solar reads.

But also, I have already argued that CSF can't be Lunar. I'm interested in talking Lunar as well. But one step at a time.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

*sigh* you're both going to make this really difficult because of course you are

Thanks, that was really super helpful.

With the amount of shit you have given me the entire game for daring to do such things as disagree with your thoughts or be unsure of my read on you, I have officially run out of patience for what feels like you intentionally avoiding to try to solve this game.

Well, good for you then, I think I’ll just stick to dealing with T-Bone and CSF then. I’m also fine dealing with Klick.

This was Klick.

I want to solve this game. Demonstrate that you do as well.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

But also, I have already argued that CSF can't be Lunar.

And Scarf!

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

*sigh* you're both going to make this really difficult because of course you are

Thanks, that was really super helpful.

With the amount of shit you have given me the entire game for daring to do such things as disagree with your thoughts or be unsure of my read on you, I have officially run out of patience for what feels like you intentionally avoiding to try to solve this game.

Well, good for you then, I think I’ll just stick to dealing with T-Bone and CSF then. I’m also fine dealing with Klick.

This was Klick.

I want to solve this game. Demonstrate that you do as well.

I have. Demonstrate that you aren’t ignoring my points. T-Bone addressed them.

Spoiler:

I remember thinking save the dragons (ydrasse) and frozen angel (firebringer) were probably unaligned because they had that heated convo about dragons not wanting to learn mech. I still think fb is solar. Really not sure who the last lunar is

This was my reason for thinking Firebringer couldn't be Lunar

I'm kinda running out of options though. And I already thought STD didn't make sense as scum period for that interaction, and was wrong. That makes me unwilling to rule out Firebringer as Lunar from the interaction. I don't think anything FA did makes the slot unlikely Lunar. I don’t think anything Firebringer has done makes him unlikely Lunar. It's just the STD interaction that I've already read incorrectly once, and so with limited options for Lunar, I feel as though that could be the weak point in my thinking at the moment.

Regardless I think Firebringer is likely to flip any flavor of scum so it's not hugely relevant. But still!

don't give me this bullshit

fucking hell

These two posts are in response to professotic, not FA

I believe it's obvious that STD is legitimately angry with FA
I don't believe this disqualifies FA from being STD's partner

I don't personally feel confident sorting at all based on the STD interactions, because I already confidently read STD as town based on them and was wrong. So I'm looking for other evidence that suggests FA/Firebringer wouldn't be Lunar, and I'm not convinced there's anything else substantial to back that idea up.

It's not a distinction that massively matters to me when I have confidence that Firebringer's a scum flip regardless of the flavor

He replaced out because of it. In what world do you possibly get scum theatre from that?

I'm pretty certain it's against the rules to discuss reasons for replacing out?

Regardless, your reduction of the possibilities as either 'legitimate frustration with someone STD is unaligned with' or 'scum theatre' is short-sighted. Specifically, I feel as though 'legitimate frustration with a scumbuddy' is a possibility.

It's not a distinction that massively matters to me when I have confidence that Firebringer's a scum flip regardless of the flavor

You also thought that of furtive and Prof and I know you’re wrong on me so this isn’t persuasive, especially since I don’t see why it couldn’t be you?

Good thing my goal wasn't to be persuasive to you, but rather to state my thoughts

Another reason I’m suspicious of your slot is that you wanted to lim us over Prof yesterday and only voted him when the majority was opposed to that.

I both didn't want to lim you yesterday AND didn't vote Prof

I didn't place a vote yesterday. I probably would have hammered Prof had he reached E-1. Limming you yesterday was something I considered, but never actively wanted.

You keep saying 'scum theatre'
Can you please define what you mean by that when you say it?
Because I've never said it in this conversation and I suspect I have a very different definition of it than you.

Scum theatre is when two groupscum fake argue to not appear to be aligned.

Right, okay
I've already said I don't think their argument was fake
So why do you keep referring to my stance as STD and FA doing 'scum theatre' when I've explicitly said I don't think that's what's happening

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

literally no idea.
totally fine with going today but i think im just gonna sheep enchant.
my reads have been very lackluster this game and i don't intend to push them or even attempt. Gonna have town carry me or yall can get rid of me.

Think we in good position to win this without me putting forward effort to solve this.

@Firebringer

I guess I'll be a bit more clear with why I'm specifically asking you the questions I am

I very strongly think that the only possible Solars left are you, PPF, and Enchant. That's a view shared by T-Bone and CSF.

You're one of those players. If you're town, you know one of those players is town. So if you agree with the premise, you're looking at PPF or Enchant as definitely Solar scum.

And from there I'd be really interested in your solve of who it is between them. It'd tell me more about your alignment, and it'd give insight on the other two.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I've taken a second to chat with Bella. I think Nancy and I might naturally clash really hard in this type of environment, possibly because we're rather similar in some ways. It's part of why I can't shake a gut townread on her posting that Bella isn't seeing; I think on some subconscious level I heavily relate with how she views things.

Anyway, I'm also going to step away and do something productive for a little while. Maybe we'll both come back and be in a better place for this. Here have a Bella for a little while

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I agree that Magician and T-Bone are not Solar. If you remove me from the Solar list because of no NK that first noon, the list of Solar is really just:

PPF
Enchant
Firebringer

I think this is correct.

I said that based on this post (and the quoted post by CSF)

I don't feel like I'm misrepresenting you by saying your possibilities for Solar are those three?

I thought you and CSF were discussing the possibility of Magician being Lunar

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I don't read Magician as scummy removed from the context of Scarf/Junko. They're not like the beacon of towniness, but their perspective feels plausible to me coming from town.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

But based on all of the reads I’ve seen, nothing has persuaded me I’m wrong on Fire not being lunar and you not seeing that doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in the rest of your reads.

You will not shut up about this and it's making me want to talk about that read exponentially less.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I will say this one more time:

I do not feel confident in my read of the Frozen Angel/Save The Dragons interactions.

I don't feel confident, because I have already read STD as town based on those interactions, and been wrong.

So when you repeatedly ask questions about the FA/STD interactions...

My answer is, 'I don't know!'

But I have already said that.

There are things I think I CAN solve accurately.

The FA/STD interactions is not one of them.

Please, stop pestering me about them.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

You’re clearly not getting it. I unlike you do feel confident and that’s what I’m trying to get through to you and everyone else. It’s beyond obvious to me, so maybe I shouldn’t get so annoyed when others aren’t seeing to me what’s clearly obvious to me but it’s really hard just to keep quiet about that when I’m so confident in that read.

I struggle to stay engaged in the meat of the conversation with you when you think something is obvious, because it feels like you just keep shouting that it's beyond obvious and that I must be intentionally not seeing it or I'm scum for not seeing it. When what would actually help me see your perspective is having a very logical conversation with you about why you think something is obvious. But you lose your patience in that conversation... and so we don't get anywhere.

And I don't know how to resolve that.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I'll say I really appreciate that post and see that you're trying to level with me. I'm trying to do the same.

I'm out for a few hours but we can try and engage on it again later?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

You have two flipped lunars jumping on FA as a direct result of her STD push, That totally doesn’t look like Fire could ever be either an Ydrasse or an MMR buddy.

This is interesting to me. I'm still out so I'll look later, but I'm very interested in looking at the context around this

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Firebringer's current play reminds me of Ydrasse's

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Can I ask why that surprises you?
It's something I'm considering simply due to there being limited options.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I personally have zero problems seeing that T-Bone post as a partner interaction

Without concrete evidence/words to back it up I really don't see T-Bone being scum here though. I think when push comes to shove that won't change.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Maybe 'authentic' is the right word to describe how I see T-Bone's play

I completely buy into his perspective being genuine town

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Here are some of the vital quotes from MMR for context. But I'd heavily recommend reading up on D2 (or 'Dawn 1') if you're interested in getting a proper feel of MMR's behaviour surrounding this.

Also, PPF lied about selling apples.

Really?
We tried to investigate them last Night and we received no result.
Measles think that this could be due to our Loyal modifier.
-Rubella

? Can you explain your post to us more?

Assuming that you're talking to us, we're a Loyal Rolestopper.
-Rubella

? Can you explain your post to us more?

Assuming that you're talking to us, we're a Loyal Rolestopper.
-Rubella

Why would you protect us over claimed prs?

Mumps and Measles wanted to see your reaction.
We're actually Loyal Neapolitan.
I guess that your reaction means that you're Town.
-Rubella

VOTE: MMR

Hypothetically possible you were blocked, but in that case why claim at all?

If you're not sure your check went through, and you townread the target enough to discard the maybe-guilty on those grounds, why wouldn't you just try again later before claiming?

I wanted to see everybody's reaction.
And I think that mastina slipped having a similar role.
-Rubella

MMR was eliminated. Their role was

Spoiler:

Lunar Starmaster

Spoiler: Role PM

You are a

Lunar Starmaster

While you are alive, whenever your faction successfully performs a factional action on a player, you will passively learn the role of the target. If your faction targets a member of the

Solar Cult

, you will receive a result of vanilla, regardless of the target's role.
[REDACTED]
You win when your faction makes up half of the living players, and no members of the

Solar Cult

are alive.

Nero Cain replaces mastina.

Noon 1 Begins! The summer heat asks people to return to the cool comforts of their own home, lest they face heat stroke.

Deadline 1 day*
Deadline will be frozen at 1 day until a replacement for Yume is found.

T-Bone must PM me this phase or I will seek replacement.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Okay question for everyone but PPF.

Did MMR have a real result? Gut reaction yes or no?

You already know my answer to this so I'll abstain influence until others answer

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Tl;Dr I don't think that PPF should be vigged over mastina.
-Rubella

Dangle, some reason your ignoring this?

Why are MMR pushing Mastina if their claim is anything other than made up horseshit?

Is there some reason you're ignoring the response I have given to this every other time you've brought it up?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

it feels like you just keep shouting that it's beyond obvious and that I must be intentionally not seeing it or I'm scum for not seeing it. When what would actually help me see your perspective is having a very logical conversation with you about why you think something is obvious.

This definitely applies to the MMR situation as well.

If you're town, I'm not going to be bullied into seeing your confbiased perspective on the situation.

You are the single person in the thread who is saying that it's incredibly obvious that MMR was just lying. No one else is positing that perspective. I am not unreasonable for seeing an alternative explanation. I am not ALONE in seeing an alternative explanation.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I hadn’t taken into account previously that Prof voted for you and the very of him getting MMR role considering he’s pretty damned good at mech ought to say something. He knew their role and he still voted you, so if there was any basis to MMR claim - which I obviously know there isn’t - why wouldn’t he have voted us?

Because knowing MMR's role, which is publicly-revealed information that we all have access to, doesn't confirm you as scum?

Just like knowing MMR was Lunar doesn't confirm that he was 100% bullshitting about his claim.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I'm not going to engage further with you on this topic; instead, I'm going to promote other responses to this question:

Okay question for everyone but PPF.

Did MMR have a real result? Gut reaction yes or no?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Oh yeah I totally forgot about this information I received like after MMR’s death, maybe it can help.

Apparently me and TicTac received the ability MMR had

but we can’t use that ability cause we are Town and as such don’t have a factional kill.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

If we die tonight, phase switches to dusk which is what scum needs to mislim the rest of the town and win this.

Why's that?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Okay question for everyone but PPF.

Did MMR have a real result? Gut reaction yes or no?

Bumping this onto current page

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Bella wanted to refresh her own grasp of the MMR claim situation, so we took some time to look again properly at it.

VOTE: Past Present Future

We both feel rather confident upon discussing it together that

what MMR had was a 'vanilla' result on PPF from their passive ability

, which would mean that

PPF is lying about their role

.

Case for this coming up. I'd appreciate some eyes on this.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

But "They saw PPF as Beloved Princess" is kinda possible case too?

This is what I've thought for a while and it's why I thought PPF could still be town. Bella convinced me otherwise and that's what I'm going to go into in the big post I'm writing up.

Did PPF claim BEFORE MMR? Wait i really don't remember.

No, PPF hadn't claimed before MMR's claim. I can't find when PPF actually did claim, but I know it was after MMR.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

You do not control what I respond to, Nancy.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

In reading this, it is very important to make a distinction between MMR's

claim

and MMR's

behaviour

surrounding the claim. The literal claim MMR made in the thread was not completely truthful. The behaviour MMR showed is what is important to analyse.

So, first of all: the idea that MMR 100% made everything up is ridiculous. The evidence very much points to MMR having *some* sort of result on PPF. MMR's actual role gives sufficient information to effectively receive the information that a Loyal Neopolitan would receive. They claimed a result on PPF for a reason. And that reason was *not* to outright claim a guilty on PPF; MMR does not act like what they have is a definitive guilty on PPF at any point, they don't push for PPF's elimination, and they only vote PPF when they can no longer argue against the idea that if they should know that PPF is scum if everything they've said is true. So MMR claimed a result based on *some* information that they had about PPF, and the motive wasn't simply to get PPF eliminated because they weren't actually trying to do that. (I am willing to discuss this part further with anyone not named PPF; it seems obvious to me that MMR did in fact learn *something* about PPF's role N1, and so if anyone disagrees or isn't sure about that, I'd be interested in discussing it further.)

The question then becomes: can we figure out WHAT result MMR got on PPF? To be clear, there are two results MMR could have *actually* received: the Beloved Princess role that PPF has claimed (which would mean PPF is town), or Vanilla (which would mean PPF is Solar).

What we're looking for is the DIFFERENCE between how MMR would be acting if they got these two results. Specifically, if MMR got Beloved Princess, MMR knows PPF is town. But if MMR got Vanilla, they don't know whether PPF is a VT or any brand of Solar scum. So,

what is MMR trying to do in regards to PPF?

I think their behaviour suggests that MMR is trying to sort PPF.

The most compelling evidence to me for this is this post by MMR:

? Can you explain your post to us more?

Assuming that you're talking to us, we're a Loyal Rolestopper.
-Rubella

Why would you protect us over claimed prs?

Mumps and Measles wanted to see your reaction.
We're actually Loyal Neapolitan.
I guess that your reaction means that you're Town.
-Rubella

PPF says, 'Why would you protect us over claimed prs?'
Rubella sees this and incorrectly thinks PPF is implying they do not have a PR. That would mean PPF is Vanilla, and therefore could be town. And that explains why Rubella concludes that PPF is likely Town from this exchange.

It makes quite a lot of sense when you consider that MMR has a Vanilla result on PPF and is trying to figure out whether they're a VT or scum. Doing the reaction test in the first place makes a lot less sense if you assume MMR already knows PPF is town.

I also think, generally, that if MMR has a Beloved Princess result on PPF, there is very little incentive to claim in the thread in the first place. (As I've already established, their goal wasn't simply to get PPF eliminated, they weren't pushing for that and there were plenty of more effective ways to establish a guilty claim on PPF if that was the goal.) Whereas if MMR got a Vanilla result, there is a clear incentive to sort out whether PPF is Town or Solar.

MMR having a Vanilla result explains the claim happening in the first place, and it explains the weird reaction test thing that otherwise has no purpose. I find it very likely that MMR had a Vanilla result. And that makes PPF scum.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

In reading this, it is very important to make a distinction between MMR's

claim

and MMR's

behaviour

surrounding the claim. The literal claim MMR made in the thread was not completely truthful. The behaviour MMR showed is what is important to analyse.

So, first of all: the idea that MMR 100% made everything up is ridiculous. The evidence very much points to MMR having *some* sort of result on PPF. MMR's actual role gives sufficient information to effectively receive the information that a Loyal Neopolitan would receive. They claimed a result on PPF for a reason. And that reason was *not* to outright claim a guilty on PPF; MMR does not act like what they have is a definitive guilty on PPF at any point, they don't push for PPF's elimination, and they only vote PPF when they can no longer argue against the idea that if they should know that PPF is scum if everything they've said is true. So MMR claimed a result based on *some* information that they had about PPF, and the motive wasn't simply to get PPF eliminated because they weren't actually trying to do that. (I am willing to discuss this part further with anyone not named PPF; it seems obvious to me that MMR did in fact learn *something* about PPF's role N1, and so if anyone disagrees or isn't sure about that, I'd be interested in discussing it further.)

The question then becomes: can we figure out WHAT result MMR got on PPF? To be clear, there are two results MMR could have *actually* received: the Beloved Princess role that PPF has claimed (which would mean PPF is town), or Vanilla (which would mean PPF is Solar).

What we're looking for is the DIFFERENCE between how MMR would be acting if they got these two results. Specifically, if MMR got Beloved Princess, MMR knows PPF is town. But if MMR got Vanilla, they don't know whether PPF is a VT or any brand of Solar scum. So,

what is MMR trying to do in regards to PPF?

I think their behaviour suggests that MMR is trying to sort PPF.

The most compelling evidence to me for this is this post by MMR:

? Can you explain your post to us more?

Assuming that you're talking to us, we're a Loyal Rolestopper.
-Rubella

Why would you protect us over claimed prs?

Mumps and Measles wanted to see your reaction.
We're actually Loyal Neapolitan.
I guess that your reaction means that you're Town.
-Rubella

PPF says, 'Why would you protect us over claimed prs?'
Rubella sees this and incorrectly thinks PPF is implying they do not have a PR. That would mean PPF is Vanilla, and therefore could be town. And that explains why Rubella concludes that PPF is likely Town from this exchange.

It makes quite a lot of sense when you consider that MMR has a Vanilla result on PPF and is trying to figure out whether they're a VT or scum. Doing the reaction test in the first place makes a lot less sense if you assume MMR already knows PPF is town.

I also think, generally, that if MMR has a Beloved Princess result on PPF, there is very little incentive to claim in the thread in the first place. (As I've already established, their goal wasn't simply to get PPF eliminated, they weren't pushing for that and there were plenty of more effective ways to establish a guilty claim on PPF if that was the goal.) Whereas if MMR got a Vanilla result, there is a clear incentive to sort out whether PPF is Town or Solar.

MMR having a Vanilla result explains the claim happening in the first place, and it explains the weird reaction test thing that otherwise has no purpose. I find it very likely that MMR had a Vanilla result. And that makes PPF scum.

Pagetop

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I don't get why we push PPF is we need to hunt lunars.

Why do we need to hit Lunar today?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

@ Past Present Future:

I'm not responding to your 20+ posts about professotic because they're ridiculous and professotic getting MMR's role tells no one anything about anyone's alignment. If there's a single person in this thread other than you who wants me to respond to any points you've made, then they can ask me themselves and I'm happy to respond.

I will not be responding to any more posts you make. You are now aware of this. Continuing to try to engage with me is only going to make the thread harder for everyone else to read. Goodbye.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I don't get why we push PPF is we need to hunt lunars.

Why do we need to hit Lunar today?

Why we don't

Noon is up next, which means Solar have their kill. In the scenario where Lunar are Arsonists and are also able to prime on Noon, PPF is primed (because due to how MMR's role works, Lunar would have targeted PPF with a factional action, AKA dousing). I value removing the Solar kill higher considering that.

Not gonna lie, I ALSO rather highly value removing PPF from the game at this point because they are driving me up the fucking wall. But even removing that bias from consideration I think there's more value to be gained from eliminating them now.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Yes, that

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

A radnom collection of thoughts:

I think PPF is wrong in their assumption that prof had any more info than what was publicly available in the thread: we can't assume anything about factional kills. We can't even assume the scum teams are balanced.

I don't think we can read anything ia into std and fa. I don't think it was fake, but I don't think it means anything partner wise

I can't see mmr's logic for claiming anything, is the issue: if they weren't pushing ppf, why out any result in that moment? They were more scum read I think, so it's a weird 1 v1 to start? My thinking earlier was that the result was 'vanilla' but that meant they didn't know whether VT or scum and dksnr want to be seen to b leading an elim on scum

@all, why does mmr say /anything/ at the point they did? Why not claim literally your real role but hide it as attunement related? My concern is either they were trying to achieve a spefici result, or....?????

FB should have a lot more reads than he does

B

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Does it make sense for scum to out their role and info just to test whether Nancy is Solar or VT? That trade doesn't seem worth it. 3121 isn't even a VT claim from PPF. Shouldn't they have pushed PPF to fullclaim?

UNVOTE:

I think this is a fair point. It doesn't satisfy my questions about why the claim happened at all (I'm not thrilled with your explanation after this), but I think there's a fair amount of wanting there to be a clear answer where there isn't one going on in my head about it.

I do agree with you in fully expecting Firebringer to flip scum of some variety. And if I remove all context, I do think Firebringer is more likely to be a Solar flip than a Lunar flip.

I'm just confused about who fits as Lunar and also feels like *scum*.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

And none of this has really changed the fact that I agree that PPF very much looks like town to me

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Your slot shouldn't have known anything about ppf though? I never thought about how weird that was.

B

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Yeah but now I have another 'why the hell was the claim made ' issue!

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

How do you know this?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I still want to lim FB

Yeah but now I have another 'why the hell was the claim made ' issue!

Whose claim? Yume's or MMR?

I'm not Bella but she told me earlier she was talking about Yume's claim
She didn't understand why Yume said anything about apples
But with what Totus said it seems to make sense, at least from Yume's end

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

If I'm going to be voting Magician today I'll really need to... se it. And right now I don't see it. Scarf looked really towny. Junko looked really towny. Scarf's reaction to the MMR stuff looked explicitly non-partnery to me.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

VOTE: Firebringer

I kinda hope this flips Solar so that I don't have to think about solving for PPF anymore.

Also we were asked like ages ago who we targeted last night - we targeted CSF.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

On one hand, it feels incorrect to me that we would correctly eliminate 5/8 times and that leave us in 3-1-1

On the other hand, Lunar seems blatantly less powerful than Solar with the info we have. The Lunar factional abilities would have to be rather strong without a fourth Lunar for it to make sense

I think aiming for Solar today is correct regardless

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Bella and I decided that Enchant and PPF are the only two people who make any sense as Solar at this point

I'm going to get home from work in two minutes and then I'd like to talk about PPF's role claiming situation throughout the game.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

On one hand, it feels incorrect to me that we would correctly eliminate 5/8 times and that leave us in 3-1-1

On the other hand, Lunar seems blatantly less powerful than Solar with the info we have. The Lunar factional abilities would have to be rather strong without a fourth Lunar for it to make sense

I think aiming for Solar today is correct regardless

Well you were clearly right on Fire but I thought he didn’t make any sense as lunar. In fact I thought FA had been really townie but Mastina I guess is a genius, since she correctly said that this was FA’s scum meta we were seeing. I feel really dumb now being pocketed by both Fire and Ydrasse. But I’m usually really good at correctly parsing associative tells but I was totally fooled this time.

I thought it was possible particularly because it was very early in the game. Scum like to mess about with associatives early on when there's very little at stake. And there was literally nothing else that felt like it disqualified Firebringer as Lunar.

I wish we could have discussed it as a possibility instead of arguing about how it was so obvious that I had to be scum for considering it.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

On one hand, it feels incorrect to me that we would correctly eliminate 5/8 times and that leave us in 3-1-1

On the other hand, Lunar seems blatantly less powerful than Solar with the info we have. The Lunar factional abilities would have to be rather strong without a fourth Lunar for it to make sense

I think aiming for Solar today is correct regardless

Why are you assuming then there’s another solar? I assumed that too but I now have doubts after Fire’s flip. T-Bone thinks lunar did something with factionals, so maybe the delayed kill theory fits that?

2 Solar doesn't feel fair at all to Solar, even without the 4 Lunar that would be necessary for that. I'd expect RR to have also had a PR if that were the case.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Wdm bad kill

CSF was confirmed town.

Why was CSF confirmed town?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I think CSF was killed because Solar assumed I had their Guardian effect

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Lunar seems to have many factional abilities, which they could use, some of them are limited.


I have doubts still, but think one of these could be convert.

Klick

Bella almost always signs and I haven't signed once

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Oops quote

I don't think Lunar conversion is likely

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

You are a

Lunar Starmaster

While you are alive, whenever your faction successfully performs a factional action on a player, you will passively learn the role of the target. If your faction targets a member of the

Solar Cult

, you will receive a result of vanilla, regardless of the target's role.
[REDACTED]
You win when your faction makes up half of the living players, and no members of the

Solar Cult

are alive.

MMR's role combined with Firebringer's implies a set of relatively weak factional abilities, with MMR's role intended to amplify the overall utility of these abilities

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Oops quote

I don't think Lunar conversion is likely

What do you think their factional ability is if not delayed kills?

I dunno. Things like Tracker, Watcher, Doc, etc?
There is zero evidence that Lunar have any killing ability and there have been four Nights

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

We have reason to suspect you were targeted by one of these factional abilities

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Based on Lunar's roles the only flipped Lunar that makes sense as someone who was converted is Ydrasse. And I would consider Ydrasse a very unlikely choice for conversion target.

If we've eliminated all of the original Lunar scum and are going to lose to recruit T-Bone and his fifth recruited member of the scumteam, then I'm kinda fine with that also you should pick us to randomly be a winner please.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Meuh died at Noon
Solar kills at Noon
Solar probably killed Meuh

Meuh was targeted by *some* negative effect at Noon. I don't know what Meuh was targeted by. We don't have enough evidence to know what Meuh was targeted by. We don't have sufficient evidence that *Lunar has delayed kills* is the answer to what we don't know.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Fine. I actually don't care to lose to Lunar too.

Who is solar though

You or PPF mate

It ain't T-Bone
I very strongly doubt it's Magician

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Meuh died at Noon
Solar kills at Noon
Solar probably killed Meuh

Meuh was targeted by *some* negative effect at Noon. I don't know what Meuh was targeted by. We don't have enough evidence to know what Meuh was targeted by. We don't have sufficient evidence that *Lunar has delayed kills* is the answer to what we don't know.

I think the most likely answer to this is 'the last Solar has a negative effect'

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Based on Lunar's roles the only flipped Lunar that makes sense as someone who was converted is Ydrasse. And I would consider Ydrasse a very unlikely choice for conversion target.

If we've eliminated all of the original Lunar scum and are going to lose to recruit T-Bone and his fifth recruited member of the scumteam, then I'm kinda fine with that also you should pick us to randomly be a winner please.

I’m sorry, I’m totally not following this.

I thought MMR had targeted me but now I’m less sure but I’m going to assume Lunar knew that like Mastina I had the town version of Fire’s role, which is why both were hard pocketing me.

I'm saying that it's incredibly unlikely that Lunar has a) a fourth member and b) a recruiting ability, which is what Enchant was expressing concern about.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

4. Fake flip for a player who died

I briefly had this thought as well, it fit nicely with flavor
I'm not really interested in playing around it though

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Meuh died at Noon
Solar kills at Noon
Solar probably killed Meuh

Meuh was targeted by *some* negative effect at Noon. I don't know what Meuh was targeted by. We don't have enough evidence to know what Meuh was targeted by. We don't have sufficient evidence that *Lunar has delayed kills* is the answer to what we don't know.

PPF.

This was a response to 8755.

I have ALSO not insisted that delayed kills are impossible.

There just isn't proper evidence for it, like you're saying there is.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I think you're misunderstanding CSF's role PPF

During the night phase, you may choose to give a player a shield. Players with a shield are protected from 1

negative effect or kill

(besides elimination).

There is no need for Meuh to have been targeted by two kills. Just one kill (the Solar one) and one other negative effect. It does not need to be a second kill.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Spoiler: Scarf Posts

Stop posting if you don't know your attunment

I am pretty sure power roles are all attuned, and VTs are not attuned, and mafia is going to pick this up quick, so DO NOT SAY IF YOU ARE NOT ATTUNED

UNVOTE:

I worded that wrong but I had to get the message out fast, because I think if you have any hints towards your attumenment then you are a PR and if you don't then you're a VT, mastina is a limited vanilla cop, probably limited so that she can't check the same person mulitple times to see if they've been recruited if that's a thing

Fwiw those quick posts from enchant and tbone make me think they are both very strongly town, but don't do anymore posting about your own attunement.

I know i've been playing pretty shitheaded lately but I did pick up on mastina's crumb about "revealing people's true colors" earlier, which is why i've been on every mastina counterwagon until i lost heart and gave up. I also crumbed that I picked up on it by saying i was pretty sure i knew mastina's role.

I've also more or less outed what i am by my recent posts so if i end up as a sacrifice today so be it.

These posts are why I voted Magician yesterday. I thought Scarf was claiming a PR at the time. Now that that slot has since claimed VT, I'm wondering if these sets of posts were TMI.

These posts started after Meuh's slot outted the existence of attunement and both myself and Enchant claimed to not have attunement in their Role PMs. We since learned then that no townies had that information in their PMs. So was Scarf putting info they had because they were scum and using it for town credit?

These posts read to me as a VT claim, particularly the last one

I don't take issue with the concern from a town perspective. I can see someone reasonably coming to the conclusions Scarf comes to as town.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

If it's 4-1 then we can't let PPF get to 3p it's bad tactically. If it's 3-1-1 then it's better to let them get their to thwart solar but that gives Lunar the win.

I think tactically because we question whether PPF is solar or not...they might be the best move because of PPF is town then we skip night phase. Of course that leaves 4p Kingmaker if it's 3-1-1 right now. I almost want to say fuck it, if the game is still 3-1-1 somehow I'm not sure what we do to get out of it.

But I think either getting PPF because they are solar or triggering beloved princess to skip night is our best play. Whatever is left among us town doesn't need night phases anymore.

Why do we value skipping Night over skipping Noon? We've seen no real evidence that Night negatively impacts us

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I think voting PPF tomorrow is optimal

I kinda wanna go Enchant -> PPF and then I think the game will be over

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

If we're worried we're losing to some janky Night shenanigans then I'm fine aiming for Solar proper today though

In which case I do think PPF is the most likely last Solar

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

That said, if mastina is scum, then one of her 'townreads' should have been killed. The fact that none of us were is a point in her favor.

That only applies in singleball.

The bigger question is why prof died?

That flip actually clears me because you should know from Heroes’ that scum!me never kills Prof here.

And I only think one scum team can kill a night.

So I’m half cleared for now, the other half will come later if I live long enough.

Scarf still voting me when I am already half clear and will be fully clear later is hella suss. If I somehow get miselimed today, remember that.

Scarf still voting me when I am already half clear and will be fully clear later is hella suss. If I somehow get miselimed today, remember that.

When hypothetically would you be “clear” by? {read I doubt this}

Possibly next day phase, I’m hoping.

T-Bone, can you help me work out why these posts happened please?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

If we're worried we're losing to some janky Night shenanigans then I'm fine aiming for Solar proper today though

In which case I do think PPF is the most likely last Solar

I don’t see how you still that’s possible after fire flip? Our role is real and it will skip to noon, so I don’t understand how you’re not taking that into account?

Do you agree that voting you tomorrow is optimal?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Why

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Because I'd rather we have three votes at our disposal than two

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

If we mislim we go to Night phase
Then tomorrow we lim PPF
and if they're town it's Night phase again
Solar doesn't get to kill and we get another shot at them

Also if there's a Lunar left it's Enchant

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Who do you think Solar is Enchant?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Only took you until I put you in an endgame PoE to realise

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I don't really buy Enchant's read on me

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I mean mostly because I hear you're good at this mech stuff
And so you should understand exactly what choosing to vote PPF on Dawn instead of Dusk would achieve

But instead you choose to focus on some oblique angle regarding me 'knowing' the game won't end when you're voted out

That's what you have to do if you're scum here, because otherwise you most likely just get voted here, and that can't happen
If you're town I feel like you at least see the argument I'm making and likely take a more anti-PPF approach in general
But instead you're positioning against me
Because you know you need to get someone other than PPF eliminated
Because you have to survive
Because you're scum

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

VOTE: Enchant

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

It's unlikely I vote Enchant. Strongest town read.

With credit, I have also had Enchant as town prior to this and I'm not positive Enchant is scum. I find their behaviour surrounding being in my PoE rather scummy, but this is the first thing that I've seen from them that has felt overtly scummy to me. I do think their interactions around all of the flipped scum feel fishy and explicitly not clearing in a way that's concerning to me. But I wouldn't be surprised to find out we're in a world with Enchant-town and PPF-scum.

I am very confident that you are town, and I am very confident that Magician is town. I cannot see either of these being wrong. I'd be interested in discussing Magician more with you because I feel like there are several things that make that slot clear town.

My interest in going Enchant today is largely from an optimisation standpoint; I think the game could very well end with a PPF vote today but it feels wrong to throw away the potential for an extra elimination. If Enchant is really a hard no from you, I'd be interested in hearing more about why you believe Enchant is town as strongly as you do. Like, less 'Enchant feels towny' and more 'these are the thoughts behind that feeling', if that was something you felt confident in engaging with with me.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Basically if you can convince me that Enchant is town then I have no issues with voting PPF today. I'm open to that happening, I think there's credit to the fact that you have a townread there. I want to see why Enchant is as hard town as they are for you and that it's more meaningful than your Firebringer townread specifically.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

What I don't want is for PPF to flip town and then Magician goes at 3. I either need confidence that that's not going to happen, confidence that PPF is just the last scum, or a complete change of reads.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

UNVOTE:

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I think voting PPF tomorrow is optimal

I kinda wanna go Enchant -> PPF and then I think the game will be over

Maybe PPF first.

I could see this from a villager who wants to see the game through to the end… I can more easily see this from a wolf with nothing to lose. If I recall correctly, Enchant was on the block a couple days ago, but was lifted because

towny

.

This is basically my read on it yeah
I think it's possible that Enchant!town's response was this but it does also conveniently look quite a lot like the only sensible scum response

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

That said, if mastina is scum, then one of her 'townreads' should have been killed. The fact that none of us were is a point in her favor.

That only applies in singleball.

The bigger question is why prof died?

That flip actually clears me because you should know from Heroes’ that scum!me never kills Prof here.

And I only think one scum team can kill a night.

So I’m half cleared for now, the other half will come later if I live long enough.

Scarf still voting me when I am already half clear and will be fully clear later is hella suss. If I somehow get miselimed today, remember that.

Scarf still voting me when I am already half clear and will be fully clear later is hella suss. If I somehow get miselimed today, remember that.

When hypothetically would you be “clear” by? {read I doubt this}

Possibly next day phase, I’m hoping.

T-Bone, can you help me work out why these posts happened please?

@ T-Bone & Magician

On another topic entirely, I'm interested in hearing what you both think about these PPF quotes in the context of PPF's actual claimed role.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

You're going to have to clearly demonstrate how you are clear by your role, because I don't see it.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I don't understand how that clears you. You have claimed a similar role to what Fire flipped. Why does that mean you must be Town instead of Solar?

I'm genuinely trying to understand that perspective but I don't see why this disqualifies you from being Solar.

I will say that I think Firebringer's flip is evidence that you do at least have a role that's much like his. But I'm not sure that it means you must be town.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

To clarify:

IF there is another Lunar, I think Enchant is the only player that makes sense. T-Bone is obvtown, Magician is obvtown, PPF can't be Lunar and wouldn't make sense as Lunar. Enchant is the only option, and I don't believe there's any reason that Enchant wouldn't be Lunar.

IF there is no Lunar and there's only Solar, then I think PPF and Enchant are both possible options. Both T-Bone and Magician make especially little sense as Solar. Enchant and PPF are both fine options for Solar scum.

I think the more likely scenario is that there's just one Solar left.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I just find it how convineint that "If there's lunar it's Enchant" argument comed from. Like it does zero sense for Firebringer to sheep with most inactive player in the game regardless of their alignment and kinda yeah for some reason i buddied with every scum in game which i find hilarious. Seems like my joke about teaming up with both teams turned to be truth.

Both Firebringer's and Ydrasse's play make zero sense generally from a trying-to-endgame perspective

I think the explanation for their play that makes the most sense to me is that when Firebringer and Ydrasse lost MMR, they both decided the game was probably just a loss for them because neither of them were engaged enough to endgame, so they kinda didn't bother

I can theoretically see a world where you fit into that equation as their buddy. I don't think that's what's happening here, but I think it's possible.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I think some evidence for there not being another Lunar is the fact that Firebringer did not choose to put us into Night phase or Dusk phase

With the potential for PPF!town to get eliminated today and swap the phases, it is entirely possible that there would not be another Night phase, meaning whatever factional ability Lunar has couldn't be used (assuming they're all used at Night)

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I also think there's an argument to be made that we specifically are not Lunar for this

I think we were a rather likely Solar kill target last Noon, and Firebringer didn't prevent that

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

Basically, if we're last Lunar, why did Firebringer let the game go to Noon with us 'clear'?

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

If PPF is scum then all I can say is Nancy played an excellent scum game GG.

This is the single thing that makes me hesitate to eliminate PPF. If this is a scum game, it's a really, really good one. There are a couple of pieces of evidence that I think pretty decently indicate that PPF could be scum here, but I find it hard to commit to them just because Nancy has played in a way that looks really townie.

I don't want PPF in 3p that's too dangerous.

I ultimately definitely agree with this though.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

If you can see from my perspective for a second Enchant, that's exactly why I've been wanting to flip you first

I think eliminating you and then PPF definitely eliminates the last Solar before Solar can possibly make a kill, and then if there's somehow still a Lunar at that point we've got a shot at them (even though if we're still playing the game at me/T-Bone/Magician 3p ELo my brain will explode, it's still optimal to play towards it)

If PPF is town and gets voted first, then I feel like we forfeit our chances of winning if we're in 3-1-1

The main reason I'm willing to consider voting PPF today anyway is because even if PPF is town, I believe that means you're Solar and I believe T-Bone should be able to see that Magician is not Solar scum. It's not how I personally would like to play this out, but I think it would still net a win.

Realistically I think the one scenario we've got a decent chance of losing in is if PPF is Solar and you're Lunar.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

I'm going to chat with Bella, but I'm prepared to hammer PPF.

If PPF is town then I think it's very clear that Enchant is the last Solar scum.

If PPF is Solar and the game is still going, we should in theory have two eliminations left to find the last Lunar, and I'm comfortable with that situation.

[Dingle Dangle Scarecrow]

VOTE: Past Present Future

Let's find out.