NY 170: Georgetown II (Game Over)

[Rainbowdash]

So this is a game... Least Slandaar is dead so no need to push policy lynch. Im through the first day but this is just such a painful game. Probably will finish it up tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

Probably the most frustrating part of this game is that two of my three strongest town reads are players who I trust a random number generator to be smarter than.

I really don't have much of a read on ABR since I really have no good meta on him (not sure I have been town in a game with him before this) but for information the lynch is pretty good just given wagons. That and culling the lurker/useless pool is a really good thing here.

Will try and lock in a vote by this time tomorrow

[Rainbowdash]

Got a quick read of everything done. Its just a pain filled read and im glad some of the bad posters are gone, lets face it, Tony, Zek, kab, Slandaar all should be policy lynched in every game every time. Just wiping out some of the bad posters who are not obviously town would be a good thing (which since NC and Garmr are town doesn't leave many but meh).

[Rainbowdash]

which since NC and Garmr are town doesn't leave many but meh

How are NC and Garmr town?

NC is town because emo has been town since about page 5. He just replaced into the slot.
I also like Garmr because of him actually pushing BS who I had as my strongest scum read for most of the game. Thor has somewhat turned that slot around, but its still on my shortlist for stronger reads.

[Rainbowdash]

I also have to admit I feel like the pony is misrepresenting their read since they're acting like Albert is still in the game.

If he is a good information lynch it doesn't matter if he has been replaced or not, the slot is still a good information lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote kab

Policy.

We should do this.

He actually has not posted any content since early D1 at this point and actually had that really awkward vote on emo early. The "I will put her at L-1 but don't hammer".

Slot is aggressively playing anti-town at this point and seems to know they can get away with it.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbowdash, do you not have scum reads?

kab is a lesser one, but I really think just putting out a few policy lynches here is good. Aegor, inhim, matais are all good scum picks. At this point I really don't think trying to create a new wagon would just be counterproductive and generate more noise and pages than the game needs.

Most of the game is moving very painfully slow and filled with fluff. When one of the players who is a slight scum read (then has done nothing since page 10 or so) works as policy, we should push it.

I also have to admit I feel like the pony is misrepresenting their read since they're acting like Albert is still in the game.

If he is a good information lynch it doesn't matter if he has been replaced or not, the slot is still a good information lynch.

Any slot is good info lynch.
Doesn't make it a scum slot.

I don't think he is town though. When you consider his flip gives us more information about D2 I would be happy enough with the lynch, especially since these long days aren't doing anything to help. Trying to throw my weight behind anything else is going to do quite a bit of damage to the gamestate when I really don't have a reason to try and tear down this wagon.

Look, unless you can say "A flip from X makes kab unequivocally town" than there is no reason to actually not lynch him. Worst case we are keeping around a slot that chances are is never going to be a town read. Best (and likely) case is that we hit scum. The slot is trying to do nothing and when it actually was doing something was scummy. Its basically a utility lynch. He has a good shot of flipping town and is a good policy lynch as well.

[Rainbowdash]

Because he is. Just read the first few pages. Its not as much "this post in particular" as other reads but if you want me pulling one exact one look at the one where they apparently have no idea how to balance mountainous.

The slot just reads town. The reactionary play, the lazy wagon...

[Rainbowdash]

You mean where you catch one scum based on a role, are unable to get any form of a wagon going without a claim, proceed to full out defend every other scum in the game, make role choices that a third grader would realize are foalish, and finally getting dragged kicking and screaming across the finish line by the rest of the town?

Kab is the lynch.

He is scummy. He is lurking. He is apparently trying to play anti-town. We are going after more active players because... why exactly here? Kab isn't town, I don't think there is a possible scenario where he could be called town, he is about the perfect utility lynch here.

[Rainbowdash]

@Rainbowdash
The last two times we lynchee some one who was lurking, we got town. kabooooom is playing anti-town, yes, but not scummy, and I'm not about to lynch another lurker just to have them flip town. Our numbers are dwindling. We have 16 slots left in game, and 14 that are usable. Tomorrow, it's more than likely we'll be at 14. And if we still haven't caught any scum and we mislynch tomorrow, if there are six, which seems highly likely for a big game, the games over.

To people saying not to lynch the ABR slot- if I think it's scummy I'm gonna try to. And I do.

VOTE: ABR-SLOT

Balance wise its going to be 16:3 since its vanilla and sure doesn't seem to be multiball. Mountainous games balance at between 5 and 5.5 town per scum.

Do you think his vote early was not scummy? Throwing the L-1 vote in a mountainous and then making the request not to hammer seems more like trying to push the wagon and distance from it all at once. After that how CAN he be "scummy" through game actions? He actually has no actions to call scummy past that because he has no actions.

If you are trying to shrug off the lynch because it "might be lylo soon" that doesn't make sense. There is no way lylo can hit before D7, and that's if we never lynch scum.

This is a utility lynch. He is scummy when he has been posting, and since then has gone into a lurker/anti-town mode that is unreadable because most of his recent posts are "prod dodge" type ones. Literally zero content since D1. We let this live why when he was scummy D1?

[Rainbowdash]

Aegor, inhim, matais are all good scum picks.

but not ABR?

As I have said, he is in that "meh" category that has the slight scum reads and the information lynches. I really cant find much fault with the lynch but I think there are better lynches.

kaboom lynch is acceptable - primarily because of the awkward L-1 vote on emog.

I am also happy with a flash kab wagon.

And yet kab wagon never happens. Seems like it keeps getting subtley avoided. I think we are at four or so players who have said "oh yeah he is a good vote" and there are I think two votes on him or something... somewhat concerning.

Go figure.

[Rainbowdash]

I was voting kab earlier in the game. ABR is at L-1. Forgive me for thinking that he is the easiest lynch at this point. Nothing would give me greater pleasure than lynching kab tomorrow.

Exactly that. There is the issue.

Most of the ABR wagon seems to be going "oh yeah but kab wagon is fine" but have been avoiding it. Never even mentioning him until I press the issue and the rest of the game is lurking not even talking about the wagon. The fact that I am probably fighting the wagon the most while saying "yeah its an okay lynch" it feels wrong. Good for information still yes, but wrong.

Acceptable does not mean that I think he will flip scum.

RBD, you calling him a policy lynch majesty me think that you don't think he will flip scum either.

Its more utility.

Utility lynches are lynches that could easily be pursued as a policy lynch but actually has a good chance of flipping scum. Essentially a policy lynch of a mild scum read.

[Rainbowdash]

On the other hand, I think the ABR slot will flip scum.

And don't think kab will?

[Rainbowdash]

Aegor, why do you want to lynch ABR?

Because there is irrational resistance to his lynch without a strong defense.

Yeah there are a couple of things very wrong with that statement.

Earlier you said you wanted ABR because that's where momentum was. Now its your vote that is putting him as the lead vote getter instead of kab. So why ABR over kab?

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah there are a couple of things very wrong with that statement.

Earlier you said you wanted ABR because that's where momentum was. Now its your vote that is putting him as the lead vote getter instead of kab. So why ABR over kab?

Because there is irrational resistance to his lynch without a strong defense.

What irrational resistance? You mean the entire game saying that at worst he is a good compromise lynch?

[Rainbowdash]

While not presenting alternatives that are not compromise lynches themselves? Yes. Lynch ABR, then lynch kab tomorrow. I think there are very good odds that at least one of them is scum.

What are you even talking about?

None of the other lynches are compromise lynches. The closest you can call is kab and that's because its in part utility due to him INTENTIONALLY avoiding playing at this point. He still is a really good bet for scum because the little bit he isn't just prod dodging is scummy. ABR is basically the definition of a compromise lynch since its most of the game going "oh yeah that's fine".

This has changed from its original thing though - what irrational resistance? Is calling others scum suddenly an irrational resistance? If you are going to apply this logic to ABR wagon cant you apply some similar logic to kab wagon?

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow- weakest scum read please. And why.

I have no idea what this means.

The player that I think is scum but think is scum the least or are you just asking for a town read here?

[Rainbowdash]

The amount of general acceptance of kab wagon but the inability to get more than four votes on him coupled with him still doing absolutely nothing and now making a not so subtle brush off of "not posting since D1 isn't scummy" makes him the lynch.

He is easily above average scum shot and he is a great utility lynch.

@ED - Kab is lurking and the little he did post was scummy, namely putting somepony at L-1 and requesting no hammers in a mountainous. Since D1 he has done absolutely nothing, and is trying to ignore the fact with his recent posts. There is not a lot of bullet points because he is doing NOTHING. He hasn't made a post that has any information in over a month. ABR seems to have been playing the same lurky state, but actually flaked out eventually which while he still remains a good information lynch, the long slow flake seems to mesh more with inability to get into a game due to time or interest instead of intentionally lurking. Basically a more town version of lurking.

[Rainbowdash]

umm..how is requesting no hammer when many days are left scummy?

Because you are voting him. If you don't want a hammer you just don't vote there and declare intention to vote because you don't want the lynch without more whatever.

and which fact am i trying to ignore with my recent posts?

How you made a post asking for why you are scummy without any of that "lurking stuff" which is a pretty major point when you have contributed as much as a slot that was abandoned since D1

Goose gander, really. I agree with you, but I don't see how it shows Kaboom more than ABR.
Clarify?

I already said that I see kab as more likely to flip scum here because there are actually scum tells, and ABR eventually flaking reads more of "in over their head" play than scum trying to lurk advantageously.

He is still a decent enough lynch though given that he has been a competing wagon the entire game, has been the leading vote getter in at least a few situations, while kab has barely gotten votes. These four votes he has now is the closest he has came to getting lynched the whole game. ABR flip is just one of those good flips to have given how active wagons have been on him. It has very little to do with thinking he is scum.

[Rainbowdash]

Zdenek please.

Slandaar is a cancer in every game he is in and should always be policy lynched. If I was to make a list of three players the site would be a better place if they never found it he would be on it. There is nothing wrong with the interaction between him and ABR.

Also the links are good

Game 1 players do something Slandaar doesn't agree with and Slandaar somehow thought compromised things, he throws a hissy fit as scum and quits
Game 2 the Slandaar slot although not getting voted D1 wasn't in a "good" spot. ABR has just quickhammered his partner, and the slot was under D2 suspicion due to the flip.

Both of those games had ABR town, Slandaar scum, and Slandaar running always when things got somewhat bad for him. In the first case the mod allowing something he thought was going to be bad for him, in the latter his partner being quicklynched leaving him in a tight spot. You do not have to be getting votes to be in a bad spot as scum. Absolutely nothing wrong with that from ABR unless they have played a couple of dozen games together with ABR town and Slandaar scum. Two of two is good enough to try and put a baseline meta out. It is more good information as to why this guy should always be aggressively policy lynched though.

Kab is the lynch.

Aegor, get back on kab. The cases on him and ABR are somewhat similar, but ABR actually might be replaced by a half decent player and part of what is being pushed is outright false while kab is legitimately scummy. I agree that we need a lynch, but at this point its good lynch vs okay lynch. There is absolutely no reason to be on ABR instead of kab. That wagon is lazy and as I just showed, apparently half based on something outright false that ABR isn't around to defend.

Kab-scum go for Thor/Zdnek tomorrow. ABR probably flipping town because the lazy wagon which zdnek says applies to him and kab seems to only ever show up on ABR.

[Rainbowdash]

Kab-scum go for Thor/Zdnek tomorrow.

I'm very obviously town. Thor is probably town because of Brian Skyes meta.
So Kab-scum means you're bussing and trying to line up lynches.

BS was probably my strongest scum read in the entire game. Thor has brought it from best choice to more of an outside scum pick, but kab being scum would put him right back up there.

Nice snipe though and trying to lay bussing groundwork.

How about you answer the parts where I pointed out that both of those games where Slandaar leaving when things got sorta bad for him? I mean, that is your case, and if you actually bother to look at either of those games ABR was far more right than wrong about the meta.

[Rainbowdash]

Well, I was taking for granted that Slaandar was telling the truth about replacing out because of conflicts with the mod and not receiving a vote in either game.

Basically ABR and another were trying to get the mod to force replace a partner of Slandaar that was behaving like kab. Slandaar melted down because he thought the mod actions basically confirmed them as scum because it would be playing to their win condition or something like that to be acting thusly and ragequit postgame saying he thought ABR should have been modkilled.

Just because you don't have a vote doesn't mean your position is always good as scum. I have had a few games where even though no scum was under pressure I felt very uncomfortable with the game given setup stuff, who secondary suspects were, too many town being called town, etc. Slandaar actually trying to brush it off like that was pretty bad, and you should know better than not only to trust him to tell the truth regardless of alignment but him actually be right about something. Funniest part is he should have been lynched because he was trying to lie about what happened in the games, and he was actually town.

He didn't have votes, but any player could have told you his position was not all that great in either game. And if you look at it, game one he was vigged N2 and game two he was lynched D4 (town never mislynched, probably lynched D3 otherwise)

Those are both exactly what ABR was calling him scum for. Just because Slandaar refused to admit it doesn't mean ABR was wrong. Go look at the games. Your entire case against ABR falls apart, or at least everything that doesn't apply to at least a few others.

Why are you suspicious of Brian Skyes?

Lots of small things but at one point he accused somepony of faking townslips. Which is pure ponyfeathers. Scum will almost never fake a townslip. Scum will occasionally not be paying attention and wander smack into a townslip, but townslips are called that because they are almost always town. Trying to say "hey wait no he did something that is far more likely town but is faking it because" is really bad. Overall the slot left a very bad taste in my mouth but that one line would have had me instantly calling for the lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

Since Brian Skyes is fairly new here, him believing that scum try to fake town-slips doesn't seem far-fetched at all to me.
Also, scum do try to fake town-slips: Amrun did it in Flash Mafia 4, but that vanished in the crash, CooLDog tried to do it is Good vs. Evil mafia (by faking a lack of awareness of the setup). So it certainly happens, it's just not all that common.

I thought BS was closer to two years already, guess not.

Anyway, I see it happen for scum just by pure luck far more often than they actually do it intentionally. Trying to undercut that would be like saying "oh they led the lynch on scum, they are obviously bussing", its just not a common first reaction but instead the reaction of trying to force a case or prevent town reads from forming. Both are quite a bit more often things scum will do.

Assuming everything was factually true (which I guess is what you think), what do you think of logic behind ABR's vote?

Its good enough. As I said I would have just policy lynched Slandaar out the gate so anypony voting him gains some credit in my book even if it was just dumb luck they were on the wagon because it means they recognized game is better without him. And again ABR isn't the worst lynch, but the reasons behind it seem off.

Again. After looking at what actually happened do you still think ABR was misrepresenting Slandaar?

[Rainbowdash]

Reads on Slaandar in each of the linked games prior to replacing out:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=31485
Mastin was calling Slaandar town.
bald eagle thought Slandaar was fluff posting early in the game, Mastin defended Slandaar from this accusation.
Matias wanted more info, and questioned Mastin's town read.
Brian Skyes was null, then to slight scum lean.
Garmr was null on Slandaar, and defended him.
Maenara thought "Slandaar is hostile, which makes one seem pro-town, but is really sorta useless when you direct it at the wrong people."

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=34696
Lupo - Slaandar is looking bad at this point (more active in other games). Was okay with him later.
TvK - thought that Slandaar needed to do something
smargret - questioned a town read of Slandaar.
ABR voted Slandaar for no reason, later neutral on Slandaar
KidA - thought Slandaar was an iffy town read.
toolenduso - Slandaar is hard to read, but is playing to his town meta.
Om - leaning town on Slandaar

Neither of these things matter, both replace outs were not due to reads of players on him but game state shifts

In game 1 Slandaar was rage quitting due to mod stuff D1 (he was vigged N2) he quit as soon as he thought he was in a bad spot due to the mod
In game 2 his partner got lynched D1 and he replaced out immediately (his slot was second lynch down the road)

Also you sort of ignored the "but he might as well have" part of ABRs post. I see the push more of "Slandaar handles pressure badly" than anything else, which he did when you consider he was using "I am a lurker so an easy lynch" as a counterattack

[Rainbowdash]

I think zdeneck is scum. I'm not about to go through nearly 200 posts of his right now though because I don't think I can form a wagon on him in 2 days...

So what... Zdnek is bussing ABR?

Seems weird to say that Zdenk is scum and then side with the wagon he is pushing instead of the wagon he is countering.

[Rainbowdash]

though I obviously don't agree with your ABR vote.

Are you voting Kaboom?

If not - why not?

Same questions to you.

[Rainbowdash]

Maybe you could walk me through your take on ABR's push on Slandaar then because I'm not following your take on this at all.

ABR noted that Slandaar doesn't do well under pressure and said he wasn't doing well in this game, which he wasn't. ABR went on to say he was surprised he didn't replace out, but was playing with such little content he may as well have. All of that is true. Slandaar was just falling apart, ABR noted that and voted him with a little jab about him replacing out in the past under pressure.

ABR probably flipping town because the lazy wagon which zdnek says applies to him and kab seems to only ever show up on ABR.

What does this even mean?

Sometimes I cant even tell what I meant with my twitch type thought process the next day.

I think I was talking about how you seem to agree that there is a lot of passive support for both ABR and kab wagons yet for multiple days ABR wagon has been able to get quite a few votes while kab doesn't.

[Rainbowdash]

ZDENEK VOTE FOR KAB YOU INSUFFERABLE DONUT

Why should I move my vote from a bigger wagon to a smaller one?

You demanding this is pretty fucked considering your past willingness to lynch almost anyone and your fear of a no lynch.

Why would either of you do this at this point in the game?

Deadline is in somewhere around a day and a half (note I am at work then - for some reason MS is basically the only site blocked there) but ending it now, doesn't make sense where what the ponies NOT voting kab/ABR do could be interesting. Its not like its L-1 against L-1 with the final player being replaced.

[Rainbowdash]

What is it that you don't think I should be doing exactly?

Changing votes when the ones that are probably the true swing votes haven't committed.

[Rainbowdash]

I know. Just trying to keep both of you sane. The players who are aggressively avoiding taking a stance are the ones that need to be taking the stance.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote kab

Lynch was still stupid even if it was lucky enough to be right. Nothing has changed. Also would lynch Thor. I don't think both are scum but I cant see both being town.

Last time I saw ABR scum he basically did the same really bad idea hard bus on a player he thought was a liability that if he didn't pay attention to wouldn't have been in much trouble.

Still have next to no free time (may clear up a bit tomorrow, Tuesday at latest) but will try and get more up when I can.

[Rainbowdash]

I will 1-1

When any player says this and it is not immediately followed by "because this is an open setup and they cannot be town" it basically is the equivalent of saying "listen to nothing I have to say for the majority of the game because I am emotionally irrational and incompetent"

heacily drinking theory but still very true. This whole "me of them" logic is something only really dull players tend to use and usually dooms the town if remotely wrong. See half of games with LLD in it for reference of why this is anti-town at best.

[Rainbowdash]

Lynch was still stupid even if it was lucky enough to be right. Nothing has changed. Also would lynch Thor. I don't think both are scum but I cant see both being town.

Clarify your case on me please, because though I am often full of myself I'm pretty sure I look obv. town right now, so I'm OMGUSing all over you for this.

ABR didn't really start doing anything in relation to Slandaar until Slandaar attacked BS (who was really scummy). You didn't take much of a stance on the whole ABR/kab exchange from yesterday early on, then tried to get Bulb to vote kab (note him not taking that chance means Bulb is town), then when it was getting to a point where ABR was looking like the deadline lynch jumped on him.

So yeah, you are not "super town" or anything. Kab being scum would mean you are probably going to be town since you wouldn't stall if scum-scum wagons like you did, but it seemed like you were trying to figure out if you could actually save ABR, and eventually decided to bus when you figured that you could not.

Couple that with the timing of ABR attacks day one and that BS was very scummy and yes, I think there is an excellent chance that you are scum here.

Again you are immediately trying to loop into making yourself look good with the ABR wagon too saying it was "good meta" when you ignored it again until late. If it was as good of meta as you are claiming, why didnt you vote him early instead of stalling, seeming to make passive pokes towards kab, and then caving about 24 hours to deadline? Most of your interactions with the wagons and comments about it today sound more like you knew he was scum but were not sure about how to play it.

[Rainbowdash]

Will be able to get caught up again tomorrow. Been a busy couple of days.

[Rainbowdash]

Still a very good chance Thor is scum here. It reminds me a lot of last game I played, one player most of the game had as "oh they are really town", looking at the read it actually made no sense, everypony though I was being crazy locking onto them, but they were scum who had basically picked up a couple of town who just defended them full out.

This just feels the same for the most part. I am probably going to get mislynched before Thor gets lynched, but if kab is town don't let him get to the end. Just making it very clear. Almost everything just feels the same. If kab is town Thor doesn't make it to endgame.

To not just quote stripe things...

I actually had completely forgotten that Thor was really pushing on ABR. That's how weak of a push it was. I attributed the lynch to about half a dozen players before him easily.

Lets look at that interaction though:

He comes in and votes ABR only to back off it as a bluff, then seems to get really jokey with him and the wagon. So anyway, he votes the "Not ABR" wagon D2 and NS gets lynched. In fact there is a lot of defense of ABR day two.

I'm voting on the 'not ABR' wagon to see what happens

Because the ABR wagon felt bad - the NS one doesn't.

Then we actually get this:

Also, Fonz's wall against ABR is compelling.

Which I guess is good, but in the same post he votes Aegor. It reads like acknowledgement that there is a case against a partner that he can jump on later.

Anyway. He seems to call himself town because he brought the meta case or whatever against ABR. Completely made up.

His ABR meta case started D3. You don't suddenly over N2 realize "oh hey player X who I have been passively defending all of the previous day is playing to his scum meta I better vote him now". You especially do not realize this when you don't have ABR tied to the D2 lynch, or if its a general meta attack. You may talk to ABR and he says "you better bus now" or something like that, and latch onto meta as being the unique reason to do such. I have been scum with ABR and he said "If you are going to bus, bus hard".

Going from D2 defense to D3 scum on meta out the gate, that is bussing hard. Meta is not an immediate pickup unless there is a very exact tell that got hit. Meta is more of a feeling throughout the entire game that a player is doing something. This is far more likely to be a bus than it is Thor as town suddenly realized that he should vote ABR on meta. Timing is completely off and inconsistent to town coming to a meta conclusion but is consistent with scum deciding to bus. So no great town tell at all. I would say its more of a scumtell.

Then you know what happened. He voted Aegor. Then he tried to get the Aegor wagon to move to kab. Then shortly before deadline when it looked like ABR was likely the only way for a lynch to happen he returned.

And that's all without BS play.

I almost want to vote Thor over kab now...

Going back to kab though, I had a scum game with ABR recently... and his ability to interact with partners is almost one of "I should be the only scum member" or something like that. He hard bussed a weaker player to start, way past a point where ignoring them would have been the best point. Its harder to read meta from gathering meta from a scum perspective, but it feels really similar here. He just tunnels in and ignores the rest of the game because they are a liability to him.

[Rainbowdash]

If it question wasn't implied enough:

You never mentioned a meta of ABR D2 except that it was hard to meta him. After a mislynch that seems to have had no real connection to ABR, you lay into him out of nowhere as him playing to his scum meta. Where did this change of pace come from, and why was it not mentioned before that point?

Here is you D3 scum logic if you want me to give it to you:

-I need to bus ABR today
-This bus is not going through. Wagon is stalling and kab/Aegor are getting votes.
-I will vote Aegor who I have been calling scum
-If I get Bulb to jump to kab maybe I can use that to call him scum later

Also I guess aside in that case...

If you saw ABR as scum, even if the wagon on him stalled out, why did you try and get the Aegor wagon to move to kab instead of just returning to the ABR wagon?

Im seriously mulling over just saying Thor is scum here and kab is town who is just generally lurky/useless. Always feels odd when you are convincing yourself you are wrong like this.

[Rainbowdash]

Also, Thor was voting ABR at the end of Day 2, almost as though he was figuring out ABR was scum.

You were voting Aegor at the end of D2. The day you jokey voted ABR to start then soft defended him the rest of the day. Not the day you called him scum for meta, when the wagon stalled went elsewhere and avoided rebooting the wagon until the last moment.

Again. How come at the start of D3 you call him scum on meta but were not at the end of D2.

What changed there? You keep saying what the meta was but you continue to dodge the question of why you didn't attack him for it until after the D2 lynch. You are avoiding answering something really important. Or you are claiming you just made up the meta attack? I cant really follow all of your post. It seems like a scattershot of borderline claiming trust tells, self meta and frustration with ABR.

[Rainbowdash]

Also, could you look at what Rainbow did yesterday. I don't think that reads very clean considering what we know about ABR's alignment now.

Wait you are claiming my play as scum is to defend a slot that is doomed to at very late a midgame lynch in a manner that actually isn't calling them town? Really?

There isn't much of a point in defending a partner if they don't have a chance of living long enough for it to be helpful.

Also you were absolutely voting Aegor at the end of D2. Just because you vote ABR after a lynch doesn't mean you were voting him.

Thor is being really dodgy over his reasoning to vote ABR. Still. He wont explain how the meta seemed to magically click during N2 (or I guess immediately after the D2 lynch) and is responding with a very clear OMGUS of "well you are scum for calling me scum for this".

Vote Thor

If I get mislynched. Kill him tomorrow.

Just like last time. Even if its basically going to take all of my effort to actually bring scum who is in a good spot down, its worth it. Right now he is trying to get rid of me quickly before stuff starts taking hold by trying to get others to vote me instead of actually giving reasons or giving responses to why I am calling him scum.

Again just like last time. Scum trying to burn up some of their town credit to get rid of a threat they would really prefer not to NK.

[Rainbowdash]

I do not think that Thor is a particularly good lynch for today. The associative info will be minimal (he has basically voted me/ABR all game).

If you think he is scum that is a spectacular reason to vote him. Thor flipping town would mean you are town, which would probably save a mislynch. Realistically though we shouldn't be lynching for information today, we should be lynching for a scum flip.

[Rainbowdash]

Thor is being really dodgy over his reasoning to vote ABR. Still. He wont explain how the meta seemed to magically click during N2 (or I guess immediately after the D2 lynch)

I thought I've been very clear on this. What part is still confusing you? I described why it took me time, and I even showed in quotes why the delay happened.

Why didn't you call it meta D2 then? If it was meta it seems like when you vote on it then it would be brought up, especially if you really thought the day was not over and you could move the wagon.

Wait you are claiming my play as scum is to defend a slot that is doomed to at very late a midgame lynch in a manner that actually isn't calling them town? Really?

There isn't much of a point in defending a partner if they don't have a chance of living long enough for it to be helpful.

Oh...is taht crazy talk? I thought that was the basis of your case on me...is it not? Wasn't I scum defending my buddy?
I've got you, don't I?

Its called parody/mocking of your insistence that you are not scum because of the exact same reason. You are saying you would not have acted like that as scum, which I said is not a real defense, and then showed that by the same logic I cant be scum if you are going to say that your own interactions clear you.

Cant have it both ways. Either your case on me needs to actually be explained or your defense of yourself doesn't exist.

[Rainbowdash]

No, looks like you're right, she called Thor/Kab and voted Kab at the start of day, and it's the first real push there.
She didn't move off Kab though till after I made more of a noise about it and scumread her.
Eh...I dunno, for me it's the case, I just don't think a town Rainbow would push this sort of case on me,a nd I do think a scumRainbow would be willing to toss me into a scumspect pool regardless of the amount of support that was there, and functionally I was the one who pushed the scumread into 1 v 1 territory.
Any thoughts on that?.

Ironically if you didn't try and push on me I probably would have stuck on kab. The reaction was OMGUS laced that felt a lot like scum suddenly getting really uncomfortable with a pony they know can command quite a bit of sway throwing their name into the mix and trying to move around their priorities. Like I was a day five/six mislynch at first or something.

@thsp - Just lynch Thor tomorrow. That's all I ask of anypony who is voting me. Lynch Thor tomorrow. He is pushing me in a minimalist (being generous to him) case that only popped up once he got concerned that I was going after him. This is scum who sees a mislynch figuring things out and is trying to diffuse the situation.

[Rainbowdash]

@thsp - Just lynch Thor tomorrow. That's all I ask of anypony who is voting me. Lynch Thor tomorrow. He is pushing me in a minimalist (being generous to him) case that only popped up once he got concerned that I was going after him. This is scum who sees a mislynch figuring things out and is trying to diffuse the situation.

Why are you already so resigned to your lynch?

Because I can read gamestates fairly well.

I think that this is going to end with a deadline lynch on me. Its going to be lazy and im going to make sure that those who are going to end up voting me vote Thor tomorrow because he is trying to sneak this lynch too early.

Kinda like yesterday, ABR was almost for sure the lynch for at least a few days before the lynch actually happened.

In other news, her case remains that I bussed, defended, bussed, redirected/defended, and bussed in this game.

Yeah... no

You came in and had some jokey interaction over ABR, then defended him, then apparently voted him twilight D2 without mentioning it was meta based, then said it was meta based D3, then you voted Aegor, then you tried to make the Aegor wagon vote kab, then you voted ABR at deadline.

Stop trying to oversimplify it in order to not make it look bad.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok, let's see.

VOTE: Rainbowdash

So you are going to vote Thor tomorrow then right?

Like really, I want anypony voting me to at least acknowledge that they are going to take him down tomorrow, at VERY least by the end of the game because I am very sure he is scum here. There IS no solid reason for calling him town here, and his demeanor changes immediately to trying to push through the selfpreservation lynch when I start going for him. Get me out of the way before I can do too much damage to his status in the game.

I just at the very least want that from those who are voting me, that you will not let Thor make it to endgame.

[Rainbowdash]

2.) RainbowDash, convince me why you are Town, and why your play does not fit the mold of "loyal" scum defending Albert B. Rampage. In particular, please discuss what appears to be your avoidance of Albert B. Rampage on Day Three in relation to your kabooooom push.

Because loyalty is town and scum meta.

ABR wagon always had a lot of passive support and then took off after he was being replaced and could no longer defend himself while touching on lots of the same points that applied to others, kab included. Im going to take steps to call that out and try and shut down what quickly transformed into what initially looked like a good information lynch into a mislynch. I have zero problem trying to shut down something I see as a mislynch, and its really easy to tell when I have a problem with leading vote getter.

Also I need to pay significantly more attention because I just realized Matais got modkilled last night. So yeah, with that I see no need to compromise lynch here due to even numbers. Not moving my vote.

[Rainbowdash]

RBD, that is blatantly anti-town given that we have spent this entire day talking. Compromise today and then bring up your dumb-ass no lynch plan tomorrow so we can just end the day immediately instead of after twoooooooooooo looooooooooooooong weeeeeeeeeeeeeeks.

All basic mountainous logic says no lynch ASAP in games with an even number of players.

Its correct play.

[Rainbowdash]

I will try and get resituated a bit over the next couple days. Still on the tail end of a cold and having almost a 12 hour work day where im suddenly pulled on a project with an ASAP due date did not do much to help me feel better.

[Rainbowdash]

Should be able to finish getting caught up again tomorrow. Finally had a less than 12 hour workday

I still kind of agree with PJ about no lynch being good now. Lets just say we end up in lylo.

If we no lynch now scum would bring it from 4 to 3 players.
If we no lynch later scum would bring it from 5 to 3 players.

No lynching early removes a certain amount of control the scum would have in crafting an endgame late. Doing it early keeps the amount of lynches the same but forces scum to make one NK with less information. At least that's my argument here.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Thesp

I am taking this from more of a standpoint of expected play. I know I stayed off both ABR and Bulb wagon, and really don't expect in a mountainous any scum to have pulled the exact same move. There is no other way to built any town credit but bussing. PJ had the same situation, where his slot avoided both wagons. It just doesn't seem like the scum play because its going to get you lynched. I know its not the strongest town case, but its enough to hold some water here I think. Easily enough to make me not want to vote him though.

Anyways

ED is town
HS is town
Aegor I actually am pretty sure is town here

Then I get inhim and kab in that "yeah I guess town" group and that about ends it.

Really I just have this feeling that the last scum is in the group who is saying "its the ones that didn't bus" and if that's the case get some serious conversation on which of them (by them it means which of Sotty/Thor) played the bus card.

Just have an amazingly hard time buying that scum didn't bus. At all. Because when all the top picks were the ones that didn't bus, it feels off. In PR heavy games scum tends to bus, in these type of games, especially with ABR being a forgone deadline lynch leading up to it and Bulb following me immediately best case for scum, that scum would just avoid trying to bus.

So yeah, me throwing a wrench in things. May not be necessary but there need to at least be some basic talking about what happens in the case that PJ and Thesp are both town. Otherwise you are going to be stuck in a very sudden endgame that probably is something like Thor-Sotty-kab

[Rainbowdash]

Really I just have this feeling that the last scum is in the group who is saying "its the ones that didn't bus" and if that's the case get some serious conversation on which of them (by them it means which of Sotty/Thor) played the bus card.

Yeah, I haven't said that. I don't think Thor really has either.

Both of you are saying its one of me, PJ and Thesp.

We are the only three alive who didn't vote ABR (and Bulb also didn't)
PJ and I did not vote Bulb, Thesp deadline hammered him

Its pretty obvious none of us were a part of the wagons. So yes, that is exactly what you are doing. Even if you are avoiding actually saying it. Its not like you don't realize you are avoiding saying it.

Do you think zero scum voted ABR? And no scum voted Bulb until, at most, the hammer from Thesp?

[Rainbowdash]

You also apparently think no one bussed ABR and that if any bussing happened on Bulba it was done last minute. So it's not like you're coming that far out of left field compared to us. Why do you find our stance unusual then?

Actually I have the group of Thesp/Thor/Sotty/PJ as pretty tight as to who I think is most likely scum. Really I would zero problem with a Thor or Sotty lynch today at all. You two are completely ignoring any other player though, to a point that overly concerns me. It feel more of a goal oriented than logic oriented approach to lynching, which is frustrating because one of you have to be town here. Only reason I am voting Thesp is that he was on Bulb until my wagon took off where he bailed before the resigned return mixed with I know its going to be pointless to try and argue that you or Sotty is scum today. Feels a lot like scum who was bussing then suddenly saw a chance for a deadline mislynch. He is probably the slightest of leads over the other three for who I think is scum (something like 30-20-20-20 breakdown with whats left getting broken down between the last players)

While I want to get players who I think will be around late if needed to start thinking about it, I know now is not the time and place to try and push the game in a new direction.

[Rainbowdash]

What's your Sotty case?

Really hands off with ABR early, giving him chances D1 and saying the wagon is bad D2. Note actually goes from "vote on him is a cop out" to "I go back and forth on him" in under 72 hours. The whole ABR suspicion progression seems to more line up with the state of the game and knowing the fight to keep him is going to be a losing battle than anything else. Bulb vote is a little better, but her play reads far more like scum just cutting their losses and going for a solo win.

Which really is what I think scum had to think at some point in this game. Go back to even day two. What do you think the chances of both ABR and Bulb making it far were? I would say pretty low at that point in the game. Because of that, I could easily see scum in a decent spot just going for the bus.

Just reiterating - If Thesp and PJ are town, its Sotty or Thor as the last scum

Also, how does your Thesp case work in relation to Emerald's 'Garmr wuz town' case discussed by me and him and later re-hashed when I made a town case for Emerald?

Bulb basically just used Garmr-Emo as an interaction that kept letting him call Emo scum and vote whichever of the two he wanted. It feels far more like scum who is trying to link town to a partner. If Garmr dies first, he can continue to call Emo scum. If Emo died first, its a way to back a bit off of Garmr.

If he was "hard bussing" him or anything like that, how did he keep managing to get off him when other wagons happened. For that matter how is he only voting him in two VCs, the entire game? I think you are overselling the interactions quite a bit. I am not arguing that Bulb didn't interact with him, but the attack really didn't come with much in the form of votes.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbowdash, why did you stop pushing Thor? You seemed pretty adamant yesterday.

Still think there is a good chance he is scum. In light on Bulb flip I think that Thesp is more likely scum though by a bit because of what I previously said. If it was Thor vs PJ today im not too sure who I would vote (gut says I would vote Sotty before either of those two).

Just reiterating - If Thesp and PJ are town, its Sotty or Thor as the last scum

So you were just arguing that no scum wouldn't be on at least one of the scum lynches. Lets flip it and say what are the odds of scum bussing both partners in this kinda game?

Pretty high, especially if you are talking about the chance of scum hard bussing at least one partner at some point in the game.

Do you think that scum would never bus at any point in a mountainous game? Especially with ABR and Bulb as scum?

For that matter how is he only voting him in two VCs, the entire game?

Garmr was voting bulba in about 6 VCs, from 1177 to 1466. For most of that time the only other vote on bulba was inHim. This was day 2, when the big fight was Nobody Special vs. ABR. So my point really had nothing to do with Bulba interacting with garmr, I'm saying Garmr (and somewhat inHim) were trying unsuccessfully to get a bulb wagon going when that was not a popular opinion to have. Also in the end Garmr gets so pissed off at bulba that he replaces out. Is that really how scum buddies would interact?

I think that Bulb was actually trying to bus him but he couldn't ever get it going, kept bouncing off him and then back onto emo. I just think it was a complete failure on his part to be able to pull the bus off. All Bulb was trying to do was tie emo and Garmr. I don't see scum do nothing but try and tie together two town the entire game. Trying to tie together town to scum makes sense, especially with the really bizarre relationship between Garmr and Bulb. Being aggressive towards a partner really isn't all that abnormal either, it tends to far more be personality clash than anything else. Not sure I have seen players that get along as scum and then hate each other as town.

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah im not going to play blatant self-preservation here

In order lynch:

Thesp
Thor
Sotty

That should win it, probably tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

Why do you town read PJ? PJ is openly admitting to slow and awkward play and his defense is that he'd look better if he was scum - did you know this about him already? Really believe his explanation? Or what?

To an extent I do believe him about that.

Also I don't think he attacks me and then defends Thesp because if he is scum that feels like a losing strategy. He would be my #4 pick, but I would vote Thesp, Sotty and you over him, and if nothing else I am going to make a point.

If I am reading him right and vote him and he flips town, im basically dead and then especially if its your or Sotty I don't like the position it puts us in. I would rather at least try and make a point, if im right, it may help. If im wrong, we already won either way.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbowdash, What changed your opinion of me becoming more scummy than Thor? What happened to your suspicion of kabooooom?

Will try and get other things done tonight or tomorrow but these are easy one liner answers because the answer to both is the Bulb flip.

You sitting on his wagon and then trying to bail from it when I started getting votes is why I think you are scum here. The flip didn't make me think Thor is town but you just more scum.

Kab I think is town because I don't see Bulb trying to push a Aegor wagon when the wagons at that point is kab-ABR. I think he just takes one of those wagons and tries to use "it was a counterwagon" to make whoever lived look good and being on a scum lynch to make himself look good. Funny part is typing that out made me more sure of my town read.

Similar reasons as to why Aegor is town.

[Rainbowdash]

1.)

Hmph. RainbowDash, can you please convince me you are Town? If you would prefer not to go that route, could you lay out a case for your suspicions?

If I knew how to prove myself town I would have done that sixty pages ago. Best is probably that I actually didn't vote ABR (who basically cost scum game as scum last time I was with him) or Bulb (who I am on somewhat shaky terms). Not too many reasons not to bus liability player or conflict player when they are under fire to start. Really though I haven't been trying to figure out why im obviously town or anything so its not something I can quickly answer.

What I said on Thor still stands. Its a little weaker due to Bulb interactions but he is still a top three pick. Thesp I have explained a bit today, but the fact that he was vote parked on what was a major compromise with two scum alive, and then at the first chance jumped off scum to vote me, after trying to get others to start the wagon, does not sit well.

Also, who are your Townreads and why? I normally do not like to ask players about Townreads in particular, but I tend to recall you focus on Townreads more than you focus on Scumreads.

How in depth are you looking for. I have already outlined why I think kab is town, and don't want to burn the last bit of the day trying to lay out ED/HS which I think speak for themselves.

Aegor basically comes down to his willingness to just jump around when scum has been up for a lynch twice. The lack of actually caring what happens makes me think that he is town because if he was scum I think that at least some point there would be more of trying to make something happen, or at least positioning himself for the future which I don't see having happened.

Finally, how exactly did you miss the modkill on Matias? I have serious troubles believing that, and I think you may well be claiming you missed it because you are aware that had you admitted to seeing it, your lack of argument for No Lynching suggests you purposefully did not bring the subject up because you knew it would help the Town.

It was not in the same post as the kill. I clicked on the topic, scrolled up until I saw the NK and then read from there. You know im too lazy to reread so never would have found it that way. It really took somepony mentioning that there was a modkill before I realized it happened at it just wasn't lack of finding a replacement.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Thesp

Everything from before, plus the NK. The only one in the obv town group who has Thesp as scum dies. Surprise.

[Rainbowdash]

VOTE: RBD

If he flips town, please, can kab die tomorrow?

Absolutely not.

You lynch Thesp tomorrow.

Kab is town. Look at how Bulb treated the Kab vs ABR wagons. There is no way scum just ducks both wagons. He at least picks one and runs with it for the town credit and to try to preach the wagons haven been town vs scum in an attempt to clear his partner.

Defeat that logic. Explain why Bulb decides to avoid what was very clearly going to be the two rival wagons if they were on his partners. Its a win-win. If he voted scum that got lynched, it means that he has town credit. If he voted scum who didn't get lynched, in a situation he got lynched it basically clears his partner. I would almost say SH is more likely scum than kab.

Its Thesp.

If not Thesp its probably 70% Thor 30% sotty. Look at the Inhim kill. His suspects: Thesp and Thor. Did ED die? No... he was calling those two town. HS? Same thing. One of these things is not like the other. Thesp and Thor. Kab is the mislynch that scum is probably hoping for in lylo if they get there.

Not a singly player has countered my logic on kab. Im getting mislynched I am going to shut down what im very sure is another mislynch.

Thesp comes in an quickly just lays a lazy vote on Bulb for what he seems to be thinking deadline reasons. When a chance to move off Bulb onto town comes up, he suddenly does. Very early with Bulb you can see Thesp think "Bulb is going to be lynched". If scum has that read, why are you not going to try to bus? If you thought your partner was doomed, if not today then immediately after the next mislynch, why do you not try to bus?

[Rainbowdash]

ABR replacing out mixed with him not actually ever being replaced killed any chance of scum winning. Came into the game expecting him to actually get replaced, not essentially get deadline lynched due to nothing coming from the slot.

If he stayed or if the slot got replaced somewhat quickly I don't think the slot would have been lynched and that would have drastically changed the game. From that point scum had no chance. Cleared too many, Bulb wasn't in a great spot and my slot was already damaged goods.

[Rainbowdash]

15 vts vs 3 scum is also OP town

No its not. If anything that's OP scum.

[Rainbowdash]

As always I will never post it unless every member has said they are fine with it being posted (and wont post it if any scum doesn't want it posted for any reason), but don't have an issue with it

[Rainbowdash]

I guess so. 19-4? Anyway, I think 14-3 would have been better here

I have no idea how you get this at all.

10:2 used to be a setup that scum has never won out of quite a few runs. All it takes for scum to do well in those setups is one player making a good run. The "balanced" mark comes in at 5.5:1 or so. I would have pushed for an extra VT here even. Playing odds I think town has to lynch twice as efficiently as random in this setup to win.

For modkills, I don't like them. As a player I would rather have a mod that says "cant find a replacement for X - suspending deadline until I get one" then just making it very known its needed and/or cross replacing.

Also I seriously did miss the modkill post. I knew who was getting NKed, there was a guarantee of no other kill or anything that could stop it, and the modkill was not in the same post as the NK.