NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6022 (isolation #0) » Sat Jan 18, 2014 3:22 pm

Hi, replacing in.

Should manage to read the first.. ~100 pages soonish? And more throughout the weekend.

Would appreciate a summary, given that this monstrosity is 6000 posts long.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6023 (isolation #1) » Sat Jan 18, 2014 3:24 pm

Is there a way to increase to posts per page on mafiascum? I desperately need it.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6025 (isolation #2) » Sat Jan 18, 2014 4:13 pm

Casso wrote:We have claimed masons and a 'no gun' result from a now proven Gunsmith

*chuckles*

Casso wrote: We have a claimed Doc who also claims to have targeted someone other than Gunsmith last night.
Gunsmith died.
The claimed Doc has posted about cheese since then.
Some people seem to actually think we shouldn't lynch said claimed Doc today. They want to "use our time".
Mostly we are "using the time" to debate which, if any, of them are also scum.

If you read only the last 30 or so pages you can receive the bulk of this info with names and some interactions attached to it and be basically up to speed.

Then a few reads might be sexy.

Will do, though I'll probably just start from the beginning. Starting in the middle of the thread is always very disconcerting to me.

I'll be caught up by the end of the weekend, I think.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6031 (isolation #3) » Sat Jan 18, 2014 9:16 pm

In post 6027, Generic wrote:
In post 6021, Empire wrote:
Prophylaxis replaces Bert.
Hello Proph!

Looks like you get to play with the unrestricted version of me now

Finished through page 25 now, and I have some scum reads but it's really difficult to get reads when half the playerbase is literally spamming up the thread with inane one-liners. I'll repost my notes (hopefully with less griping) once I'm finished w/my read.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6117 (isolation #4) » Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:15 am

Got through page 50, here are my catchup notes.

--

Dislike Falcon's first two posts, especially the "good catch".

Not a huge fan of BROseidon's posting youtube video to the are you scum. Reminds me of Thor's "I am a kumquat"

Kind of dislike MC Maraca's "let's wagon F-16, right?" and then proceeding to keep her RVS vote.

The town bloc application filling is ridiculous.

Feel a bit worse about Maraca; it's a bit forced around #120.

Not sure if I like "Yep, you got me," Cephir's #154.

Man, I'm not a fan of mafiascum RVS. Feels too inside-jokey, with little to no analysis being actually performed, heh.

Hm, not sure whether to bump F-16 up for responding to his questions. Still kind of in my Not Town pile, though.

I don't have any town reads yet, ugh.

...not a huge fan of geists asking questions in #258.

Oh Generic is in this game he can go into the Generic pile.

Man, RVS in this game is extremely depressing. It's all meta to me with players that have played with each other multiple times, and I'm just left not really basking in it.

Should I trust Tammy's read on Generic?

...Did someone replace Brain Skies? Want to put him as a slight town read based on questioning why people are townreading him.

(I later moved him to null because Llamarble replaced into that slot, and I have decent regard for him as a player watching the Crosstown games, and have trouble seeing him be

so wrong

)

I liked pieguyn's replace in and his questions to Sakura. Seemed like a genuine attempt to Figure Things Out, I think.

F-16's posts ring hollow in my ears, though I hope I'm not conf'biasing this read.

I'll probably toss SSK into the leaning scum pile. Fairly self conscious.

Hmm, though it seems like he's genuinely trying to figure out people's alignments on his wagon? Need to look at this more, though

Don't know why Stuffed Crust was lynched - his reactions were pretty townie.

Something here about Sakura made me think she was town/made me pay more attention to her, need to dig it up

Did MafiaSSK overreact in 896?

--

I'm about here at the moment; tell me if anything happens to my scum reads.

Stuffed Crust
Tammy
Desperado
DOMO

Prophylaxis

Generic

Casso the King of Seals

pieguyn r. SonOfZeus

MafiaSSK r. roflwaffles
Norlkaz r. Brian Skies
KoreanBBQ
goodmorning
Sakura Hana
Ser Arthur Dayne r. pitoli
zMuffinMan r. talah

Titus
geists
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
BROseidon
Ms Marangal

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6124 (isolation #5) » Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:37 am

In post 6120, KoreanBBQ wrote:
In post 6117, Prophylaxis wrote:tell me if anything happens to my scum reads.
1. MafiaSSK claimed scum.
2. goodmorning/Ms Marangal are masons.

In post 6121, KoreanBBQ wrote:3. giests are cleared by gunsmith
4. KoreanBBQ is town as hell

Oh, really?

I'll change my reads then.

In post 6118, Titus wrote: I need to get into the game more. Care to do vca with me Prophy? We have enough flips where we might get something. I am utterly convinced there is something off with the wagon on Stuffed Crust. Do you want to know where I am leaning or fly blind?

I have colored wagons in my notes, but you're a scumread at the moment, based on Cephir's posts. I'm sure I can do VCA later; after reading through Day 1, probably.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6423 (isolation #6) » Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:48 am

Prod received, posting sometime today.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6689 (isolation #7) » Sun Jan 26, 2014 3:59 pm

In post 6618, Titus wrote:I agree with Generic. Where is the SAD case? Generic, I will call your bluff and shock Sakura to make sure once and for all she is scum or whether I was caught in a tunnel.

VOTE: Prophylaxis

You promised some shiny content. Where is it? Your votes suck. Bert sucked. You vanished.

I've never replaced into a game this large before, and I'm still not caught up - was busy with other stuff during Night, and I'm really not looking forward to reading 200+ more pages of this game.

Regardless, glad we got a scumflip, and will be reading through noting interactions w/MafiaSSK in mind.

How can you say my votes suck when..

I haven't even voted once since I replaced in?

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6692 (isolation #8) » Sun Jan 26, 2014 4:20 pm

Vote Titus

I have some free time today and I'm intending to go through page 125 before I head to bed/do other stuff, but in page 50ish there's some "safe" interactions from MafiaSSK and Cephir that don't at all genuine to me. #1036 is fencesitting, and I feel like this wagon essentially confirms her slot as scum:

Stuffed Crust

(5) -

pieguyn

,

Desperado

,

DOMO

,

Cephrir

,

KoreanBBQ

(violet = confirmed town, teal = strong town, blue = leaning town, gold/orange/red = light/leaning/confirmed scum, respectively)

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6695 (isolation #9) » Sun Jan 26, 2014 4:33 pm

Strawman me more, Titus.

I can't do votal analysis because I haven't

read the game

, more specifically Day 1. I can go and color code all of the votals made so far but I can't go so far as to

analyze them

.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6703 (isolation #10) » Sun Jan 26, 2014 4:54 pm

Would like Generic to respond to RC's jailing; not too sure of him yet.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6713 (isolation #11) » Sun Jan 26, 2014 5:45 pm

Got through page 80 and reading this game is a whole lot harder (and longer) than I thought it would be. It was mostly a Stuffed Crust buildup, meta arguing, and town-on-town arguments; I can barely get any reads from conversation like that.

I think this is where I'm at.

Stuffed Crust
Tammy
Desperado
DOMO

Prophylaxis

Generic

Casso the King of Seals
Ms Marangal
geists
goodmorning
RadiantCowbells

pieguyn
KoreanBBQ

Norlkaz
Sakura Hana
Ser Arthur Dayne
zMuffinMan

F-16 Fighting Falcon

Titus

MafiaSSK

I'm town.

Generic will probably be lynched today, and purple is my unreadable pile. I'm glad I don't have to go through the trouble of examining his posts and getting a read on him lategame.

Casso and geists have been proven innocent via gunsmith, IIRC?

goodmorning and Ms Marangal are masons, and RadiantCowbells is a self-resolving problem, with the jail.

Ever since pieguyn's replaced in he's been genuinely trying to figure out the game state - I think I got a townread him through page 30, with his questions to Sakura.

KoreanBBQ was one of the earliest voters of SSK and he was the counterwagon to him.

I want to sort out the Norlkaz/Sakura/SAD/zMuffinMan pile; once I do I think I'll be able to engage in this game and probably won't read the rest of this game.

I had Brian Skies as a light town read on his RVS stuff but I reverted that to null after seeing Llamarble was in the game and ISO'd him. I have decent respect for his play seeing his performance in the Cross-Town games, and I have trouble seeing him be so /wrong/.

Not a huge fan of F-16's first two posts, and his scumhunting feels so

hollow

. Having trouble explaining it besides my gut, though. I need to refine this read a bit more as I read through.

I've been over why Titus is scum.

I'll probably catch up over the week (planning on taking some time out of each day to read around 30 pages if I'm good) but I'll be engaged in the game throughout this Day - ask me questions if you want insight on my alignment, or something.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6787 (isolation #12) » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:20 am

vote Titus

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6790 (isolation #13) » Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:27 am

In post 6789, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 6787, Prophylaxis wrote:
vote Titus
Bzzzzt. Nope, he's not scum. Try again.

Explain to the class.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6817 (isolation #14) » Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:37 am

In post 6791, Titus wrote:Prophy, are you trying to have me tunnel you? Naked voting me is REAL effective at doing that.

You should know I am not scum better than anyone. You fail to provide content that you said you'd do. Cherrypicking a vote is not a VCA. You have not given a lot of thoughts since your initial entry.

Meanwhile, I have pursued lines of inquiry, made bold claims, and generally scumhunted. People may not like my methods or conclusions but there's little question as to whether I provide what I promise.

Why should we believe you are town?

:shrug:

I've been trying to read through the thread in my spare time but reading it is taxing and boring. I've failed at reading you before (Ryuk) and Cephir's interactions with MafiaSSK earlier in the thread felt artificial. Until I catch up, I've been trying to get more content from the thread by interacting with everybody.

I'm not cherry picking your vote - if I see TOWN TOWN UNKNOWN TOWN TOWN on a lynch, I want that Unknown dead, even if I didn't have a scum read on them prior to that. I'd say 90%+ scum rate on clusters like that. It's very rare that 5 town will be on a lynch in a row, especially on town.

The early Stuffed Crust wagon was a good example of a wagon like that, since there are two flipped townies and two people I have townreads on. Cephir's vote is the odd man out. That's why I'm scumreading you, and you haven't given me a ton of reasons why I shouldn't.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6820 (isolation #15) » Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:08 am

In post 6818, Titus wrote:KBBQ, quit dodging. What about my play is terrible?

Prophy, nice made up stats. Day 1 has a high proportion of town, so town would have to cluster at somepoint. That's why VCA is a starting point but not an endall be all. If it was, the group would lynch Casso and Sakura no questions asked.

"I'm scum, but your reasons suck"

Discrediting votal analysis is really the only way scum can defend themselves against it, so yeah.

I'll outline the case against Titus when I'm at a computer, but she's discrediting votal analysis and strawmanned my points against her, off the top of my head.

Prophylaxis · Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:43 am

I will respond to you more in-depth soon.

In post 6818, Titus wrote: Prophy, nice made up stats.

In post 6823, Titus wrote:Nice projection Prophy.

Is there any reason why everything I say is "nice"?

Prophylaxis · Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:47 am

Can you restate the case on SAD? I have no read on him, and he was pushed to four votes yesterDay, IIRC.

He hasn't come up in my read yet.

Prophylaxis · Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:51 am

Mmm, fair.

As I've stated repeatedly, just need to figure out the Norlkaz/zMuffinMan/SAD/Sakura/Casso pile and I will be caught up. Everyone else I have a read on, to various degrees.

Prophylaxis · Wed Jan 29, 2014 12:33 pm

In post 6829, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 6825, Sakura Hana wrote:Actually

Unvote
Vote: SAD

that L-1 vote was bad.
You're quite terrible at this.

Answer me.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6888 (isolation #20) » Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:50 pm

^

I'll post more soon.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6890 (isolation #21) » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:29 pm

In post 6832, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 6830, Prophylaxis wrote:
In post 6829, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 6825, Sakura Hana wrote:Actually

Unvote
Vote: SAD

that L-1 vote was bad.
You're quite terrible at this.
Answer me.
Is my answer actually supposed to be "me" or do you have a question for me that I missed during my selective reading.

I want you to explain this:

In post 6789, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 6787, Prophylaxis wrote:
vote Titus
Bzzzzt. Nope, he's not scum. Try again.

More to the point, who do you want to lynch toDay and why?

Not a huge fan of "You're quite terrible at this" from SAD - it's a potshot, with no attempt at trying to discern Sakura's alignment.

zMuffinMan wrote:it's not actually as rare as you're making it out to be, especially in large games (i've seen much larger wagons that were entirely town on a townie - and games lost because of poor VCA like this).

Might need to take a look at D1 votals from this site - it's fairly effective on my site.

Looking at the last five Normals, with Day 1 lynches:

Apocalypse Mafia (townlynch) - TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN

WWE Mafia (scumlynch) - MAFIA, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, MAFIA

Chime Mafia (scumlynch) - TOWN, TOWN, SK, TOWN, MAFIA

FHF Mafia (scumlynch) - TOWN, MAFIA, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN

C&B Mafia (scumlynch) - TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN

Gotham Underground Mafia (townlynch) - TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, MAFIA, MAFIA

This site:

NY 167 (townlynch) -

MC Maraca

,

orcinus_theoriginal

,

Cephrir

,

PeregrineV

,

JacobSavage

NY 166 (townlynch) -

dopog, Concombre, The Purple Rose, notscience, Fegelein

NY 165 (townlynch) -

Rift Adrift, Zdenek

,

KingCrabd

,

Shadi1337, Baby Spice

NY 164 (townlynch) -

Desperado, Kublai Khan, Syryana, Nachomamma8

,

Cephrir

NY 163 (scumlynch) - ugh, can't be bothered to go through the weird votals for this one

NY 162 (townlynch) - greygnarl - 10 [L-0]

Human Destroyer

,

Bacde, Nobody Special, PeregrineV

,

petapan

...So yeah, it's really not as poor as you're making it out to be. The only town on town lynches are fairly rare.

Titus wrote:Prophy, "nice" in that context was used similar to nice try.

Hm, making a mental note of this later.

---

Going to put some more work into this game, now that I've read through. I may or may not read through the rest of the thread.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6891 (isolation #22) » Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:37 pm

In post 6818, Titus wrote: Prophy, nice made up stats. Day 1 has a high proportion of town, so town would have to cluster at somepoint. That's why VCA is a starting point but not an endall be all. If it was, the group would lynch Casso and Sakura no questions asked.

I feel like what you mean by vote count analysis doesn't sync with my version of vote count analysis

And see my Normal stuff if you think they're made up. I can provide you with more examples if you wish.

In post 6823, Titus wrote:Nice projection Prophy. I never said that vca isn't a vital tool. In fact, I am still annoyed with you for just cherrypicking one point. That's not vca. I am not strawmanning. Defending is not making a strawman. You are strawmanning my responses.

KBBQ, you may not agree with my analysis but being wrong doesn't mean scummy and you know it. You thought geists being scum was also ridculous.

I'm not cherrypicking; it's simply just basic votal analysis, and it's key to how I scumhunt.

As for why you're strawmanning, my reasons as to why I think you're scum are:

- "Yep, you got me" - Cephir's 154. It indicates self-consciousness.
- "safe" interactions with Cephir and MafiaSSK around the 50-page slot
- Cephir's #1036 fencesitting
- The early wagon on Stuffed Crust, and Cephir's vote on it

..while your response is:

Titus wrote:Funny how Prophy comes on and just picks the one VC where Cephir looks bad rather than doing the VCA he promised.

You choose to focus on my votal analysis, and you dismiss/discredit it. That fits the definition of a strawman to me.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6892 (isolation #23) » Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:03 pm

At the moment, my reads are:

Stuffed Crust
Tammy
Desperado
DOMO
RadiantCowbells

Prophylaxis

Ms Marangal
geists
goodmorning

pieguyn
KoreanBBQ

Casso the King of Seals
Norlkaz
Sakura Hana
zMuffinMan

F-16 Fighting Falcon
Ser Arthur Dayne

Titus

Generic

MafiaSSK

/really/ want to sort out that Not Town pile, but then I would have to slog through this thread. I'll see if I can develop a better read on Casso/Norlkaz/Sakura/zMuffin at some point.

Are we dealing with a five or four man scumteam? On MTGS it would be five, or four + SK; not sure about 'Scum standards.

KoreanBBQ

(6) - Brian Skies,

Tammy

,

MafiSSK

, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,

pieguyn

Stuffed Crust

(2) -

Cephrir

,

KoreanBBQ

MC Maraca

(1) -

pitoli

Casso the King of Seals (1) - F-

BROseidon

geists

(1) -

Generic

goodmorning

(1) - talah
F-

BROseidon

(1) -

Stuffed Crust

Tammy

(1) -

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Generic

(1) -

goodmorning

Not Voting (5) -

roflcopter

,

Desperado

,

geists

,

MC Maraca

,

DOMO

MafiSSK

(5) -

KoreanBBQ

, Sakura Hana,

Cephrir

,

DOMO

,

pieguyn

KoreanBBQ

(4) -

MafiSSK

, Casso the King of Seals,

Generic

,

roflcopter

MC Maraca

(1) -

pitoli

Casso the King of Seals (1) - F-

BROseidon

Tammy

(1) -

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Generic

(1) -

goodmorning

Not Voting (7) -

Desperado

,

geists

, zMuffinMan,

MC Maraca

, Brian Skies,

Stuffed Crust

,

Tammy

Stuffed Crust

(5) -

pieguyn

,

Desperado

,

DOMO

,

Cephrir

,

KoreanBBQ

(4) -

MafiSSK

, Casso the King of Seals,

Generic

,

roflcopter

Casso the King of Seals (1) -

geists

DOMO

(1) - F-

BROseidon

Cephrir

(1) -

Stuffed Crust

MafiSSK

(1) - Sakura Hana

roflcopter

(1) -

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

MC Maraca

(1) -

pitoli

Generic

(1) -

goodmorning

DOMO

(5) - F-

BROseidon

,

Desperado

, Sakura Hana,

Stuffed Crust

,

Generic

KoreanBBQ

(3) -

MafiSSK

, Casso the King of Seals,

roflcopter

Stuffed Crust

(3) -

pieguyn

,

Cephrir

,

KoreanBBQ

Casso the King of Seals (2) -

geists

,

DOMO

roflcopter

(1) -

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

MC Maraca

(1) -

pitoli

Generic

(1) -

goodmorning

Not Voting (4) - zMuffinMan,

MC Maraca

, Brian Skies,

Tammy

Stuffed Crust

(5) -

Cephrir

,

KoreanBBQ

, Sakura Hana,

DOMO

,

Desperado

DOMO

(3) - F-

BROseidon

,

Generic

,

pieguyn

KoreanBBQ

(3) -

MafiSSK

, Casso the King of Seals,

roflcopter

Desperado

(1) -

Stuffed Crust

roflcopter

(1) -

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

MC Maraca

(1) -

pitoli

Generic

(1) -

goodmorning

Not Voting (5) - zMuffinMan,

MC Maraca

, Brian Skies,

Tammy

,

geists

Casso the King of Seals (5) - zMuffinMan,

goodmorning

,

pieguyn

,

Generic

,

Bert

Stuffed Crust

(4) - Sakura Hana,

DOMO

,

Desperado

,

Cephrir

zMuffinMan (3) -

Ser Arthur Dayne

, Brian Skies,

KoreanBBQ

MC Maraca

(2) -

Tammy

, F-

BROseidon

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(1) -

MC Maraca

Desperado

(1) -

Stuffed Crust

Not Voting (4) -

MafiSSK

,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

,

geists

, Casso the King of Seals

Stuffed Crust

(6) - Sakura Hana,

DOMO

,

Cephrir

,

KoreanBBQ

,

geists

,

Desperado

Casso the King of Seals (4) - zMuffinMan,

goodmorning

,

pieguyn

,

Generic

MC Maraca

(3) -

Tammy

, F-

BROseidon

,

Stuffed Crust

Bert

(1) - Norlkaz
Sakura Hana (1) - Casso the King of Seals

geists

(1) -

Bert

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(1) -

MC Maraca

Not Voting (3) -

MafiSSK

,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(6) - F-

BROseidon

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

DOMO

,

MC Maraca

, Casso the King of Seals,

Bert

Stuffed Crust

(4) -

Cephrir

,

Desperado

, Sakura Hana,

KoreanBBQ

Casso the King of Seals (3) - zMuffinMan,

goodmorning

,

pieguyn

Sakura Hana (1) -

geists

MC Maraca

(1) -

Tammy

goodmorning

(1) - Norlkaz

MafiSSK

(1) -

Generic

Not Voting (3) -

MafiSSK

,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

,

Stuffed Crust

(6) -

Cephrir

,

Desperado

, Sakura Hana,

KoreanBBQ

,

geists

,

pieguyn

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(6) - F-

BROseidon

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

DOMO

,

MC Maraca

, Casso the King of Seals,

Bert

Casso the King of Seals (2) - zMuffinMan,

goodmorning

MC Maraca

(1) -

Tammy

goodmorning

(1) - Norlkaz

Not Voting (4) -

MafiSSK

,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

,

Stuffed Crust

,

Generic

Sakura Hana (8) -

Tammy

, Casso the King of Seals,

DOMO

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

, Sakura Hana,

geists

,

Desperado

,

KoreanBBQ

Casso the King of Seals (3) - zMuffinMan,

goodmorning

,

Generic

Stuffed Crust

(2) -

Cephrir

,

pieguyn

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(1) - F-

BROseidon

goodmorning

(1) - Norlkaz

Not Voting (5) -

MafiSSK

,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

,

Stuffed Crust

,

MC Maraca

,

Bert

Sakura Hana (10) -

Tammy

, Casso the King of Seals,

DOMO

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

, Sakura Hana,

geists

,

Desperado

,

KoreanBBQ

,

MC Maraca

,

Bert

Casso the King of Seals (3) - zMuffinMan,

goodmorning

,

Generic

Stuffed Crust

(2) -

Cephrir

,

pieguyn

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(1) - F-

BROseidon

goodmorning

(1) - Norlkaz

Not Voting (3) -

MafiSSK

,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

,

Stuffed Crust

(11) (LYNCH) -

Cephrir

,

geists

,

Tammy

,

Desperado

,

Bert

, Sakura Hana,

MafiSSK

,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

, Norlkaz,

pieguyn

,

KoreanBBQ

Casso the King of Seals (3) - zMuffinMan,

goodmorning

,

Generic

MafiSSK

(2) - Casso the King of Seals,

Ser Arthur Dayne

F-

BROseidon

(1) -

MC Maraca

Sakura Hana (1) -

DOMO

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(1) - F-

BROseidon

Not Voting (1) -

Stuffed Crust

This is all of the five vote wagons on Day 1, where the most benefit can be had to votal analysis.

(ignore the username mangle, going to look at this in my next post to keep them separate)

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6895 (isolation #24) » Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:39 pm

KoreanBBQ

(6) - Brian Skies,

Tammy

,

MafiSSK

, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana,

pieguyn

This wagon is worth revisiting, though I do believe it was mostly compromised of RVS votes?

Going to use Brain Skies as an excuse to talk about Llamarble.

Honestly surprised that I don't have a read on Llamarble yet, since I got a healthy respect for his game after avidly following Cross Town shenanigans. His scumteam prediction is three town (me/goodmorning/Tammy) and I don't know the alignments of Cephir and Casso.

Looking at his ISO, he defended MafiaSSK pretty hard, but my main problem with Llamarble is that he's just consistently wrong. I'm not exactly sure how it translates to alignment, though. He locked down the scum pretty hard in Cross-Town 2, IIRC. He's just throwing down conclusions and doing stuff without reasoning, and I can't really read someone who doesn't show me his thought processes. Is this how Llamarble usually plays?

Is it too much to ask for:

Llamarble wrote:I have plenty of towntells I am aware of but cannot fake.

?

MafiSSK

(5) -

KoreanBBQ

, Sakura Hana,

Cephrir

,

DOMO

,

pieguyn

KoreanBBQ

(4) -

MafiSSK

, Casso the King of Seals,

Generic

,

roflcopter

This wagon is why I have a townread on KoreanBBQ, plus the fact that he was the counterwagon to MafiaSSK. I'd expect one scum bussing, and Cephrir is the most likely candidate.

All of the scum were on Korean's wagon.

Stuffed Crust

(5) -

pieguyn

,

Desperado

,

DOMO

,

Cephrir

,

KoreanBBQ

(4) -

MafiSSK

, Casso the King of Seals,

Generic

,

roflcopter

Casso the King of Seals (1) -

geists

Wagon that scumfirmed Titus's slot, IMO. The Day 1 end of vote wagon also doesn't bode well for Titus.

DOMO

(5) - F-

BROseidon

,

Desperado

, Sakura Hana,

Stuffed Crust

,

Generic

Doesn't tell me much, because Generic was at the tail end of this wagon.

Stuffed Crust

(5) -

Cephrir

,

KoreanBBQ

, Sakura Hana,

DOMO

,

Desperado

Cephrir/Sakura probable scum, on this.

Casso the King of Seals (5) - zMuffinMan,

goodmorning

,

pieguyn

,

Generic

,

Bert

Stuffed Crust

(4) - Sakura Hana,

DOMO

,

Desperado

,

Cephrir

Again, can't get much out of this, considering Generic was voting Casso.

Second wagon is much the same.

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(6) - F-

BROseidon

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

DOMO

,

MC Maraca

, Casso the King of Seals,

Bert

Stuffed Crust

(4) -

Cephrir

,

Desperado

, Sakura Hana,

KoreanBBQ

Gut says that Stuffed Crust is the town!counterwagon to scum!F-16, though that just might be confirmation bias.

Would look at SAD then Casso in this, or it's possible that all the scum just piled onto SC.

More of the same with the next.

Sakura Hana (8) -

Tammy

, Casso the King of Seals,

DOMO

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

, Sakura Hana,

geists

,

Desperado

,

KoreanBBQ

Why is Sakura voting herself?

Would want to burn SAD for this, alone.

Sakura Hana (10) -

Tammy

, Casso the King of Seals,

DOMO

,

Ser Arthur Dayne

, Sakura Hana,

geists

,

Desperado

,

KoreanBBQ

,

MC Maraca

,

Bert

...Yeah, that's a ton of town on this wagon, besides SAD.

Stuffed Crust

(11) (LYNCH) -

Cephrir

,

geists

,

Tammy

,

Desperado

,

Bert

, Sakura Hana,

MafiSSK

,

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

, Norlkaz,

pieguyn

,

KoreanBBQ

SCUMMY, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN, TOWN. Lynch ittttttttt.

I would expect at least two scum in this wagon, including SSK, probably three.

I'll go ahead and do Day 2 soon.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6899 (isolation #25) » Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:45 pm

In post 6893, Sakura Hana wrote:Nice to see someone see things in an unbiassed way.

Can you get more noncommittal than this?

Because when I last checked your read on me was:

In post 6878, Sakura Hana wrote:I'm still leaning on Titus-scum, and also Proph-scum, and indeed SAD-scum as well. Hey that's prob. all of them!

In post 6894, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 6890, Prophylaxis wrote:More to the point, who do you want to lynch toDay and why?
Scum:
Prophylaxis
pieguyn*

Town:
Ms Marangal
Casso the King of Seals
Norlkaz
goodmorning
Sakura Hana
Titus
KoreanBBQ

Have to look over:
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
geists
zMuffinMan

*Generic-Pie interaction looks so staged. So, so staged.

In post 6890, Prophylaxis wrote:Not a huge fan of "You're quite terrible at this" from SAD - it's a potshot, with no attempt at trying to discern Sakura's alignment.
It probably has to do with that fact that I already think she's town.

In post 6890, Prophylaxis wrote:More to the point, who do you want to lynch toDay and
why
?

Bolded for emphasis.

And then there's me wondering why you have me as a scumread, yet you're not voting me.

In post 6896, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 4693, Generic wrote:Also DOMO, you need to get the geists paranoia out of your head.

In a game this size what are the chances you hit the only role you feasibly will read a scum player as town with?
Interesting...

Why's it interesting?

In post 6897, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:VCA doesn't really work when you already have reads then go in and twists things so they can fit your reads

I'm clearing people based on good reasons.

I go through my scumreads first, then lynch anyone that's a Not Town read that's hanging out with a town crowd.

It's worked for me in dozens of games.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6902 (isolation #26) » Fri Jan 31, 2014 7:52 pm

unvote, vote SAD

Larger wagon; Titus can wait.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #6905 (isolation #27) » Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:48 pm

In post 6903, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 6899, Prophylaxis wrote:And then there's me wondering why you have me as a scumread, yet you're not voting me.
Name one scum motivation for me "thinking you're scum" but not voting you. Go ahead. Enlighten me.

Not voting your strongest scumread is scummy because it shows a lack of conviction in one's reads.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7007 (isolation #28) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 5:15 pm

In post 6907, zMuffinMan wrote:
kbbq wrote:And here's Gen's post
looks like he was trying to shake off your question. it was a round about way of not giving a real answer. rest of the post looks pretty bullshit, though, given his later call-out of proph was for lurking and there was no followup to that call-out

proph wrote:...So yeah, it's really not as poor as you're making it out to be. The only town on town lynches are fairly rare.
if you give five examples and one of those is a town on town lynch, how can you call it rare? i'm not even arguing about the rarity, i'm arguing that it happens and basing your argument on VCA is flawed; it's helpful sometimes, sure, but when your argument is "look at this wagon, it solidifies X as scum" no.

also i wasn't specifically talking about lynch wagons, but any wagon. and seeing as your VCA includes wagons on unflipped players, you seem to be talking about that, too. it's not that rare that full town wagons occur at different stages of a game (especially a large game)

From my experience, it's pretty rare that five town will be on a lynch in a row, and when that happens, it usually means that the wagon is on scum.

Can you show me some examples on this site? I don't think it's different here.

I mean, looking at the previous NY game (NY 167), and pulling up all of the five man wagons:

Guyett

[L-4] -

PeregrineV, Sakura Hana

,

orcinus_theoriginal

,

TheIrishPope, Guyett

JacobSavage

[L-4] -

sangres

,

MC Maraca

,

orcinus_theoriginal

,

Cephrir, Hermy

Angry Frat BROs

[L-4] -

likeabauss, Toomai, Guyett, Hermy, RadiantCowbells

RadiantCowbells

[L-4] -

MC Maraca

,

TheIrishPope, RadiantCowbells, Cephrir

,

orcinus_theoriginal

[L-4] - [color=#]Sakura Hana,[/color]

sangres

,

Guyett, PeregrineV, Toomai

caledfwitch

[L-4] -

MC Maraca

,

Sakura Hana, yessiree, Guyett, Cephrir

I mean, I'm acknowledging that wagons comprised of town on a town lynch /do/ happen, but things that happen once per 50+ wagons aren't worth considering.

If you're confused, I can tell you more about how I scumhunt, but really I'm less interested in talking to you about theory and more interested in lynching the (three? two?) scum we have.

In post 6909, Ms Marangal wrote:I do have to admit that Prophy selectively choosing the D1 lynches and pretty much effectively ignoring the fact that that is a few games out of several played here is pretty hillarious and... naive, I guess?

Give me a game and I can pull up the wagons, and show you that scum are indeed on town wagons.

I don't have the time to go through every single game on mafiascum.net and provide statistical evidence of it, of course, but again, it's fairly rare that a all-town wagon is on town.

In post 6915, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 6899, Prophylaxis wrote:And then there's me wondering why you have me as a scumread, yet you're not voting me.
My read on you isn't as strong as Titus, also I already had a scumread on Bert and my case is somewhere in D3.

Responded to SAD, not you. Apologies.

In post 6918, Titus wrote:MM, Pie is town. After me, lynch Prophy. He is obvscum.

You continue to ignore the points I've brought up against you, and ignore my large posts, and say "I'm obvscum".

Not sure if you're scum, or just incapable of reading.

*reads below*

Let's go through all of the problems with your post, Titus.

Titus wrote:Sakura/Prophy Bus each other already!

You're calling Sakura and I scum and telling us to bus. How deep in the tunnel can you get?

I'm not scum, and I really haven't paid much attention to Sakura at all - she's pretty much just coasting. I have her as a Not Town/null read, because I don't see anything townish in her posts.

Titus wrote:Calling each other unbaised while scumreading each other.

..What? Sakura called me unbiased, and I told her to expound on it more, since unbiased is a pretty noncommital word. Again, I'm not even scumreading Sakura yet. Why are you misrepping me?

Titus wrote: Confbiasing me while putting together meta vcas.

How am I confirmation biasing you? You and Cephrir have done legitimately scummy things, and you're using a whole bunch of buzzwords to dismiss my analysis.

Titus wrote: Prophy, you and I both know that was a cherrypick.

...

I'll post more in my next post; this is getting pretty long.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7009 (isolation #29) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 6:14 pm

@Sakura

Can you give me specific links to games?

In addition, what is FEA?

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7013 (isolation #30) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 6:24 pm

I'll look it over when I'm not tired.

Who were the scum in that game? Don't see it revealed in the OP.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7023 (isolation #31) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:18 pm

In post 7022, Titus wrote:
If you are hellbent on being stupid, lynch me today. I cannot live in lylo due to people discrediting me. SAD is a horrible lynch. Prophy and Sakura are the onlycandidates I will tolerate. I want a scum lynch if I have to die trying, so be it. Lynch me or leave me be.

Titus, engage with me.

Respond to my large-ish post where I dissected one of your posts. Repeating the same things over and over again is mind-numbing.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7024 (isolation #32) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:18 pm

In post 7022, Titus wrote:
If you are hellbent on being stupid, lynch me today. I cannot live in lylo due to people discrediting me. SAD is a horrible lynch. Prophy and Sakura are the onlycandidates I will tolerate. I want a scum lynch if I have to die trying, so be it. Lynch me or leave me be.

Titus, engage with me.

Respond to my large-ish post where I dissected one of your posts. Repeating the same things over and over again is mind-numbing.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7027 (isolation #33) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:23 pm

*sigh*

I'll respond to you soon, when I'm not on a mobile device.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7029 (isolation #34) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:39 pm

Titus wrote: There was no content in that post about this game.

That's blatantly false. (We're talking about post #7007) - my first part was me trying to explain to zMuffinMan how I scumhunt, but my points all dealing with you are all relating into this game. I even asked you some outstanding questions, and you brickwalling like this is frustrating.

Titus wrote:Plenty about other meta games, which I don't give two shits about and then you just discrediting me, and you expect me to deign that with a response.

Again, the first part of that post was me trying to explain to zMuffin how I scumhunt - it doesn't matter if you don't care about meta; that post wasn't about meta anyways. I'm discrediting you because

your points are incorrect

. I'm going through each sentence of yours and explaining why you're wrong.

Titus wrote:Yeah, it's mind numbing. I'll keep repeating the same damn things in new ways until people actually process the right answer.

If you're town, then this is useless. Repeating endlessly "SAD is a bad lynch, Proph and Sakura are scum" doesn't mean /anything/ - I haven't seen you give any reasoning regarding Sakura or I as scum, and I still don't know why SAD is a bad lynch, since I haven't read the thread fully, and may not.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7030 (isolation #35) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:40 pm

Bigger wagon.

Unvote, vote Titus

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7032 (isolation #36) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:44 pm

In post 7031, geists wrote:
In post 7030, Prophylaxis wrote:Bigger wagon.

Unvote, vote Titus
You have both SAD and Titus as equal scum reads?

I consider them both scum, and I'm fine with either of them swinging toDay.

If either flip town, I will re-evaluate the next Day. (and probably read more of the thread)

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7034 (isolation #37) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 8:59 pm

In post 7033, geists wrote:Do you typically seesaw to whichever wagon you can push up a notch in this sort of scenario?

I have learned over my mafia years that it's important not to be too picky as to who I am lynching - if I have them as a Not Town/scum read and they're the largest wagon, I have no reservations about placing my vote on there.

Arguing about some stuff like "I agree that X is scummy, but Y is scummier and that's here's why they should be lynched" leads to a loss of pace, which is dangerous.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7036 (isolation #38) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:20 pm

In post 7035, geists wrote:
In post 6902, Prophylaxis wrote:
unvote, vote SAD

Larger wagon; Titus can wait.

In post 7030, Prophylaxis wrote:Bigger wagon.

Unvote, vote Titus
Can you point me to games where you have done something similar?

I can try, after sleep. It's getting late.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7038 (isolation #39) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:31 pm

For context, I was scum in that game and was voting a inactive lurker (sXe).

Cantripmancer was my scumbuddy in that game.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7039 (isolation #40) » Sat Feb 01, 2014 9:42 pm

I can't really recall any examples off the top of my head using this; on Day 1 I like to poke at as much people as possible to generate reads and just generally scumhunt, and in late game it usually comes down to PoE.

We're in a rare state in that it's Day 5 and the game hasn't really devolved into PoE stage yet (it might have for some of you, isn't for me), and so I'm fine with jumping around SAD and Titus to do later analysis on their wagons and also because I think they're both scum (I'm interrogating Titus right now to see if I can find any evidence to disprove this, as SAD and Titus declaring each other town and Titus exclaiming why she can't be scum w/Generic is setting off my VI cold feet bells)

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7064 (isolation #41) » Sun Feb 02, 2014 6:36 am

*sigh*

I have tried and tried and tried to get content out of Titus. I told her to engage with me, to talk with me about the positions that she is taking. I have dissected all of her responses sentence by sentence and explained why they are wrong, and her response is to stonewall me.

I'm ready to lynch her soon. If she somehow flips town (which, if she does, Titus, you shouldn't do this as town; it's useless and gives scum an easy way to hop onto your wagon - town should fight the lynch with passion), then I'll get off my lazy butt and read the thread, and probably do some interaction analysis.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7177 (isolation #42) » Mon Feb 03, 2014 7:47 pm

In post 7121, Norlkaz wrote:I think everyone is reading Casso as town thanks to derailing a lynch on somebody now regarded as probably town (though tbf megaderails for buddies aren't common anyway).
I wouldn't be ultraconfident off that but eh I'll get to him eventually.
I think that in general a lot of the townreads are being overstrengthed, with the possible exception of the ones on F16.
I don't particularly disagree with them though.
I'll do the should we actually lynch this guy post tomorrow.

Can you do this for me:

Llamarble wrote:I have plenty of towntells I am aware of but cannot fake.

Your playstyle makes it pretty difficult to read you.

In post 7153, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Let's see how dumb you feel when you like being sheeped on an incorrect wagon.

Unvote
Vote: SAD

..Why do players on this site vote for themselves to accelerate their wagon?

---

Overall I'm reading the last ~5 pages or so and can't find much to comment about. Ultimately, I want SAD or Titus to be lynched toDay, and if either of them flip town I will reread and do more heavy analysis. I don't feel particularly motivated to do so right now, and either of them flipping town will make me re-evaluate. So I'm pretty much in the same boat as pieguyn.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7253 (isolation #43) » Wed Feb 05, 2014 9:44 am

PTAP.

I'll put some more work into this game soon.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7311 (isolation #44) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:51 am

Muh, I'll dedicate some time to this tonight, with it being the weekend and all.

Was peering at vote counts from phone and think Casso/Sakura are more likely town - have trouble seeing /all/ the scum jumping onto the opposing wagon, and scum don't usually vote right after the other.

MafiSSK (5) - KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana, Cephrir, DOMO, pieguyn
KoreanBBQ (4) - MafiSSK, Casso the King of Seals, Generic, roflcopter

Liked the interactions Korean brought up, and I read back and liked Sakura's SSK vote.

Want to look at zMuffinMan, will do so when not posting on mobile. SAD feels a bit better, but want to reread.

I still want to lynch Titus. She hasn't responded to any of the points I've brought up against her, and is mostly coasting at this point.

Don't have an opinion about the "proving" masons thing - if you can do it, great, but if they're scum they'll be sorted out later in the game.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7326 (isolation #45) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:46 pm

GENERIC INTERACTION ANALYSIS

| denotes responding to a quote or a question, or a vote.
- denotes a passive mention.

Multiple occurrences in the same post are redundant. If a post contains both | and - for the same player, only | is mentioned.

Some | may be demoted to - and vice versa depending on importance.

Code: Select all

geist: ||||||||||||||||||--------
Casso: ||||||||||||||||||-----------
Msmrg: ||||||||||||||---------
F16FF: |||||||||||||||---
Proph: |||||||||||||||---------
pigyn: |||||||||||------
Norlk: ||--
Korea: |||||||||||-------
gdmrn: ||||||-
Sakur: |||||||||||--
SerAD: |||||||---
zMufn: -
Titus: |||||||||||||||||||||||--------

MafiaSSK

: |||||--- (for context)

Breaking this down:

F-16 has been upgraded to a townie read. My initial read on him was pretty weak - basically a self conscious response to "Are you town?", IIRC. I liked the effort he was putting into his posts, and Generic tried to buddy up with F-16 in the early game.

In post 1858, Generic wrote: If you want a good sheeting bet f16 is the most town so far but his town piling is at a snails pace right now.

My gut *wants* to say Casso is town - the MafiaSSK interactions with "Why is this wagon forming on X" looked pretty good, but one thing I noticed with Generic is that he kept SSK as his personal punching bag - constant voting and unvoting, though he didn't have too many interactions with Generic (most of those |s were Generic hopping on him). I noticed that Generic constantly voted and unvoted Casso as well, so that gives me some pause. The number of interactions there makes me think that he's probably.. town? I don't think he's going to be lynched toDay or for any other Days to come, so my gut wants me to sort him out to "weak town" and move on from there.

Generic had a spat with pieguyn during my latter skim of his ISO, and accused him of CFTWR, IIRC. I had some tabs queued up with potential interactions to look at, but I closed them accidentally and too lazy to hunt them down. Want to take some time rereading this slot - I cleared him as town early, and some people are saying he's scum and I'm pretty confused.

Generic has little interactions with Norlkaz - want to look there, too. Norlkaz is pretty much the epitome of null this game - can't get much from Llamarble's strange posting style.

Sakura Hana had some Generic interactions scattered around, but again, my gut wants me to clear her based on SSK's comment. I don't really remember much - I'm slotting her as the same spot as Casso.

Ser Arthur Dayne is.. ugh. I really wish I read the thread, when talking to him. He's pulled off several scumtells but something earlier felt like righteous indignation - hard to fake. Going to fencesit here, now. He had some scattershot Generic interactions but again, I forgot about those ones too.

Generic basically had no interaction with zMuffin, and due to that he's become my strongest scumread. None with SSK, either.

Cephrir had the most interactions with Generic (they had a spat somewhere between Day 2) and that gives me pause regarding Titus. Ultimately, I'd like Titus to be lynched at some point because I need her flip to help me figure out the game, and

she's not doing flat-out anything

. Additionally, I don't think I can read her too well and like Ms Marangal said, the reason why I want her to be lynched is a mix between policy and scumread.

Is there any reason why zMuffinMan isn't being pressured? Like, SAD mentioned "Generic has no interactions with zMuffinMan" and no one really followed up on it.

To clarify for the mod -

unvote, vote zMuffinMan

If a Titus wagon re-forms, I'm also willing to revote her to figure out the game state, but that's a ton of interactions with Cephrir.
-----

In post 7317, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote: Everytime I see your "votal analysis," I feel an irresistible urge to insult you. I am really a bad person, lol.

Ugh, how do I explain my analysis methods.

One of the things I like to do in games is to look for lynches that I have a cluster of town reads/people that flipped town on.

If I see mostly town on a lynch, and that lynch has stalled out, chances are pretty good that the person wagoned is scum - because why wouldn't scum want to help want to run them up?

It's the same type of logic I use when analyzing, say, a TOWN TOWN UNKNOWN TOWN TOWN wagon. If the person being wagonned is probably town, and I have a unknown read in the middle of a cluster of town reads, I want that person shot. Scum will be on town lynches to accelerate the mislynch, and scum will usually be on the back end of scum lynches.

The more town that flip, and the more town reads that are obtained, the more useful looking at earlier game voting wagons is - because over the course of the game, voting is the hardest thing to fake.

Words are the easiest thing to fake.

I don't mind mislynching the occasional player when the argument against it is "it might be 6+ town in a row one out of 250 wagons!!1!" because that is rare.

And if you guys (Titus, zMuffin, F-16) want to continue to dismiss is as being 'naive', then be my guest - it's simply how I play, and it's another tool in the toolbox along with interaction and behavioral analysis.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7331 (isolation #46) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:21 pm

If you have me as a scumread, SAD, then do you think I'm bussing zMuffin?

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7339 (isolation #47) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:41 pm

In post 7332, zMuffinMan wrote:proph

do you usually hunt (or can you show me where you've previously hunted) for scum based solely on the
number
of "interactions" with flipped scum? also, i gather you have experience with generic - is the idea that generic would have fewer interactions with his buddies based on meta or is it purely an assertion?

sad wrote:See like this feels fake and ooc
did you actually read proph's post?

coz he's literally suggesting people are town/scum based purely on the number of interactions. like, read it.

I mean I can pull up a game where I did this recently:

For context, Lucky, Fonti, and BillD were the scum team. Fonti had no interactions with the flipped scum, and BillD had only casual mentions. Lucky shot particularly high because the flipped scum was bussing him.

I Ctrl-F'd an ISO of Generic in a MTGS game (Majora's Mask) and he did not interact with his scumbuddies that much.

I'm scumreading you because the

scumteam did not interact with you at all

. I Ctrl-F'd "zm" when reading SSK's ISO and I only got a nested quote from you. Same with Generic, IIRC. Scum that go out of their way to avoid interacting with each other are probably scum with no confidence in their acting ability.

It's really just basic interaction analysis.

In post 7333, zMuffinMan wrote:side note,

proph wrote:Want to take some time rereading this slot - I cleared him as town early, and some people are saying he's scum and I'm pretty confused
this looks like scum trying to set up a back door into later changing his read on pieguy and doesn't look like a genuine thought process. "i'm reading pie as town, but since some others are calling him scum, i could be wrong"

Uh, if my townread on someone is solely based on the minuscule chunk of game that I've read and people are calling him scum now, I'm confused!

Now I know that something went on in the middle of the thread that I did not read that caused people to change their view of pieguyn, and I can go look at that.

In post 7334, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:
In post 7331, Prophylaxis wrote:If you have me as a scumread, SAD, then do you think I'm bussing zMuffin?
Hmm? You should know by now I do reads independent of each other, because people always fall into the predicting-scum-based-on-scumreads that haven't actually flipped which is stupid. For a good example see Pieguy in this game.

Fair enough, I guess.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7454 (isolation #48) » Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:08 pm

PTAP, will post more tomorrow.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7519 (isolation #49) » Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:44 am

In post 7518, geists wrote:
VOTE: zmuffin

Nati and I talked about our gut reads last night and who we trust more in terms of building consensus. The upshot of that was an intent to vote SAD, but I'm not feeling it right now.

I'd feel perfectly awesome about changing the vote to Titus if necessary.

/barn this.

I've been reading the thread but I don't have the time to make a comprehensive post. I prefer a zMuffin lynch, but I won't feel bad changing it to Titus.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7576 (isolation #50) » Thu Feb 13, 2014 6:56 pm

In post 7557, pieguyn wrote:ok so I don't know how I feel about this

on one hand I finally got a zmuffin-scum lynch and I'm ecstatic.
but on the other hand YOU DID IT WHILE I WAS GONE AND I DIDN'T GET MY SPOT ON HIS WAGON T_T

vote: SAD

there were several places where zmuffin was cherrypicking in favor of SAD which makes me think scum buddies. I'll write it up later but the summary is he had a townread on SAD despite SAD doing a lot of shit he accused other people of doing. this makes me think his townread on SAD was entirely made up and they're scum buddies. with that SAD has scum-scum interactions with all 3 flipped scum

Hey look, here's some Silver Rage.

I don't get your reasoning for voting Ser Arthur Dayne. I thought that SAD and zMuffinMan were unaligned pairs and once zMuffinMan flipped scum SAD became very-nearly confirmed town.

ZMUFFIN INTERACTION ANALYSIS

(I don't think this is a super great tactic but it's been working for me for a while now)

Code: Select all

Casso: ||||||||||||||||||||||||------------------
F16FF: ||||||||---
Proph: ||||||||||-----------------
pigyn: ||||||||||||||---------
Norlk: ||||-----
Korea: |-
Sakur: ||||||||------
SerAD: |||||||||||||||||||----------
Titus: ||||||||||------------

IIRC, I think Titus and Ser Arthur Dayne are town. SAD had pretty genuine interactions with zMuffinMan prior to the lynch and I agree with SAD's point that I don't think Titus would ignore a zMuffinMan lynch.

I'm undecided on Casso - I like the large numbers of interactions but F-16 is right, though it can be a case of me not reading the thread.

I will do more of this stuff later.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7578 (isolation #51) » Thu Feb 13, 2014 7:49 pm

In post 7326, Prophylaxis wrote:GENERIC INTERACTION ANALYSIS

| denotes responding to a quote or a question, or a vote.
- denotes a passive mention.

Multiple occurrences in the same post are redundant. If a post contains both | and - for the same player, only | is mentioned.

Some | may be demoted to - and vice versa depending on importance.

Prophylaxis · Fri Feb 14, 2014 10:49 am

In post 7580, pieguyn wrote:ok I reread the interactions and I really don't see any reason they can't be scum x scum

like suppose the scumteam really is SAD/Titus. what the hell would they do in that situation? they're the 3 lead wagons. there's really nothing they can do to save one of them at that point and so it'd be profitable to distance the shit out of each other before one of them goes down

I'm willing to throw everything away and look elsewhere for the time being, but the last thing we need is to incorrectly clear someone

You'll notice that SAD and Titus were hard-townreading each other yesterDay.

Also SAD was the first one to point out that zMuffinMan had no interactions with Generic, IIRC.

In post 7585, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:I am less sure about Titus. I still think she could be scum. It just seems unlikely for scum to neither bus nor derail a scumlynch but just let it happen. It just seems so unlikely that when SAD, Titus, and Muffin are the main wagons, she continues pushing Hana and Casso as scum as opposed to explain her position with regards to Muffin and Arthur or jump onto the Arthur mislynch if Arthur is town.

I agree with this. I don't really see Titus just becoming useless as scum yesterDay and doing nothing but tunnel on me.

In post 7589, Titus wrote:@All, I take the offense that I deliberately avoided this thread personally. I did what I could. I was flying cross country to attend the funeral of a relative. However, for those of you who give shit as to what I would have done, I woul have defended zmuffin and been wrong. If you town or scumread me based on me not being around for zmuffin, take that out. It is piss poor gameplay and ethically wrong. V/la is for v/la alone, not strategic advantage.

@GM, holy lynch train...as if on queue. If you think F16 is scum, you vote F16, you don't lynch town.

Who do you want to lynch toDay and why?

---

Vote Norlkaz

He's the last one on my PoE list; I have varying degrees of townreads on everyone else.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7726 (isolation #53) » Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:12 pm

PTAP, will post more soon.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7769 (isolation #54) » Tue Feb 18, 2014 8:30 pm

Prod received, will post more meaningful content within the next day - I've been busy.

Just a quick skim:

In post 7766, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:GM, get in here and hammer Titus.

Why do you want to lynch Titus without a claim? This seems like the most heavy-handed PR breadcrumb I've seen this year:

In post 7755, Titus wrote:No we are not. I will claim if required but we aren't outing any PRs atm.

Prophylaxis · Fri Feb 21, 2014 11:42 am

I'm here, and vanilla town.

Planning to dedicate some time to this game during this weekend.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7819 (isolation #56) » Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:41 pm

Let's see.

Prophylaxis

Ms Marangal
goodmorning
Ser Arthur Dayne
pieguyn
KoreanBBQ
Casso the King of Seals
Sakura Hana
Norlkaz

I'm town.

Willing to dismiss Marangal and goodmorning as town - they'd have to be awfully ballsy with the mason claim, and they tested their daychat a while ago.

Prophylaxis

Ms Marangal
goodmorning

Ser Arthur Dayne
pieguyn
KoreanBBQ
Casso the King of Seals
Sakura Hana
Norlkaz

I want a couple of consensus on townreads, so we can PoE this game down into a cluster.

I like SAD, pieguyn, and KoreanBBQ as town. Korean was the counterwagon to SSK on Day 1, and SSK was the first vote on there, plus a Generic vote. He's been making my skin crawl a bit (he seems absent at times, et al) but I think he's unlikely to be scum.

SAD and zMuffinMan were probably unaligned pairs - SAD pointed out the lack of Generic interactions first, and I don't think he'd do that as scum.

In post 7201, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Welp, the Generic-Muffin interactions are practically non-existent, Generic basically ignores mufifn the whole game, asks Bert about his read on muffin once, and puts him in his lower tier of suspicions

A bit paranoid, because I'm getting "what if" scenarios in my head which would greatly be assuaged if I got a better understanding of the 'Scum meta (bussing is common, which makes me hesitate a bit on declaring townreads)

pieguyn has done some consistent scumhunting since he replaced in, and zMuffin buddied up to him a bit strongly. *skims zMuffin ISO* - yeah, he's probably town. The Silver Rage makes me a bit worried, but I think he's likely to be town, both behaviorally and by looking at interactions.

Want thoughts on these cluster of players, and want to get a couple of solid townreads - then it becomes a game of PoE. I'm not lynching Korean, SAD, or pieguyn unless something significant happens.

This leaves Sakura Hana, Casso, and Norlkaz.

If this is a 5 man scumteam, the scum are in this pile.

Kind of want to autolynch two of the three and see where we are, but I'm open to refining my reads on those players. I think I'm going to look at votecounts, next.

Sakura and Casso I *want* to be town, but that's probably some wishful thinking. Some stuff in the thread made me townread them slightly? I don't have them in my notes, though, and need to dig them out.

Still happy with a Norlkaz lynch, I think. He's been consistently wrong all game (which rubs me the wrong way, since I have decent respect for Llamarble after seeing him play in Cross-Town) and he has the least interactions with scum - if we're PoEing, he's the one I want to off first.

*skims*

Looking at his recent posts, I don't think I'm a fan of him trying to keep everyone as a possible lynch, and I dislike his "I'd be nice if my early reads were actually correct" as a justification for a vote - removes some accountability there. He's declaring himself obvtown but I just don't see it.

Vote Norlkaz

.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7820 (isolation #57) » Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:48 pm

Everyone except the masons claimed vanilla, right?

Keeping a list in my notes, can't be bothered to double check.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7835 (isolation #58) » Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:31 am

Prod dodge, post was deleted.

@Norlkaz:

Is there any real reason why you posted three times, in response to my single vote?

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7837 (isolation #59) » Wed Feb 26, 2014 8:06 am

It felt like an overreaction to me.

--

Ugh, this is going nowhere. It feels like we're all having 10 different little mini-conversations in the thread, and we're gaining no real momentum.

Norl, can you link me to your most recently completed town and scum game? A little meta might help.

How does everyone else feel about the Norlkaz slot? Did F-16 explain his townread on him?

I want to see if Llamarble is the guy who you can clear based on not bussing his buddy to the ground, as scum.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7841 (isolation #60) » Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:11 pm

In post 7838, Ms Marangal wrote:So I lost a post to rollbacks, though I didn't say much, just that I think Prophy is prob town, and Norl interactions doesn't seem like ones that would come from a scum-buddy to a scum-buddy.

Can you elaborate on the Norl interactions?

Ms Marangal wrote: I'm seriously loosing my grip on the town-reads I had on Sakura and Nacho though the Sakura one is worse off. I also don't see the consistent scum hunting coming from pi that Prophy see's so...

Ugh, every time I see something like this I get more and more paranoid about pieguyn, but then I actually look at the evidence and think that he's town.

I saw him ask pretty genuine questions when I was actually reading the thread (when he replaced in he was drilling Sakura and I liked that) and the zMuffin interactions /felt/ townie in regards to him. I'm just not sure why everyone is scumreading him.

Ms Marangal wrote: SAD reads likely scum as well

Again, why? He was the first one to mention that zMuffin had no interactions in regards to Generic, and I liked some of his recent posts.

Other than the above I agree with mostly all of this.

---

Why am I on such a different wavelength than llamarble, in terms of PoEing the game down?

I swear I have to reread his posts twice to comprehend his posts on the best of days. :/

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7871 (isolation #61) » Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:20 pm

@Norl

What do you think of this vote count:

MafiaSSK (5) - KoreanBBQ, Sakura Hana, Cephrir, DOMO, pieguyn
KoreanBBQ (4) - MafiaSSK, Casso the King of Seals, Generic, roflcopter

It's one of the reasons why I'm townreading Korean (Mafia gets voted up, scum hop on the town counterwagon) and I'm interesting in looking at your thought process as to why you think he's scum.

Unvote

.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7891 (isolation #62) » Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:10 pm

In post 7872, Ms Marangal wrote:
V/LA for a week

I want to see a case compiled for KBBQ because Early game really did feel like town-Nero, and mid-game, and some of late-game too though I'm not really conviced enough to want to defend him as I had done in Mastins game

Yeah, I want to see a case too, if anyone feels strongly enough about KBBQ!scum. Again, I don't think he's scum.

Wow, this game is so dead that people are going V/LA for a week? (I'm rather unenthused for this gamestate as well, so no blame there)

In post 7873, pieguyn wrote:pdodge. no energy atm

I'm townreading BBQ mostly bc of GIF. I don't wanna out the exact tell I'm using. there was also the SSK wagon and BBQ was one of the main people who pushed for SSK flashlynch D1

Sakura and Norl are both town. mb I just have a weak spot for "I can't do this as scum" arguments but I tend to sympathize with that bc my scumgame is complete shit. I think I'm fine with SAD but I wanna double check some things first. either way the last scum should be in {Casso, Proph, SAD} and bc I'm getting townvibes from Proph I'm leaning towards Casso x SAD

more later

I.. mostly agree with this? To be fair when I look at Norlkaz's posts they're still ultimately null but I'm willing to take him up on the "things I can't fake as scum" stuff - to be clear, since the gamestate is so dry right now, I'm willing to clear Norl based on lazy analysis + haven't read the thread since I replaced in.

In post 7878, Norlkaz wrote:That ssk v bbq vc is somewhat favorable for bbq and a bit unfavorable for pieguy who looked like floating from vote to vote without own significant opinion and proph who was part of making bbq compete with ssk. Ssk was mostly successor wagon rather than counter. Bbq gets a few points for driving on ssk there.

Okay...?

Like, pieguy hopping on the tail end of the SSK wagon looks bad for him but he's in my townie pile due to his behavior.

What do you mean by "proph who was part of making bbq compete with ssk"?

:/

In post 7880, goodmorning wrote:SSK might have warranted a counterwagon on a lesser Scum too, as he was Encryptor, was my thought, but now I kinda think I'm just being paranoid.

Have there been common instances of scum counterwagoning other scum, on mafiascum.net?

I bring this up because it's literally only happened once in the 40+ games I've played.

Ehh.

---

- Where is Sakura Hana? She's done nothing memorable for me.
- Is it normal for Casso to pop in, multipost with some thoughts, and leave? Because I'm seeing "hey hey I think X is town" but.. his vote isn't on anyone, and glancing at his last few posts I see no concrete scumreads, or even "since I think everyone is town I'll vote SAD".
- I've liked pieguyn's behavior, but I realize that I'm saying this yet not really backing it up with concrete evidence (like, the only thing I remember right now is that zMuffinMan buddied up to pieguyn). If I have time I'll go and examine this slot again.
- Norlkaz I'm willing to listen to for now. Everyone says that they're townreading him and I can see the townie stint he pulled in CT2, despite his posts not really making too much sense to me.
- KoreanBBQ is always absent and again I don't remember what they've done. Still willing to clear based on D1 wagon unless I see evidence of scum counterwagoning scum on 'Scum.
- Ser Arthur Dayne I'm not getting the votes for. Do I have to remind everybody that he pointed out that zMuffinMan had no interactions with Generic, and had good (read: not scum on scum) interactions with zMuffinMan on Day 5?)

Vote Casso

. My bullet point on him makes me cringe.

Also willing to vote for Sakura - I don't remember her at all.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7899 (isolation #63) » Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:04 am

In post 7894, Ms Marangal wrote:
In post 7891, Prophylaxis wrote:Yeah, I want to see a case too, if anyone feels strongly enough about KBBQ!scum. Again, I don't think he's scum.

Wow, this game is so dead that people are going V/LA for a week? (I'm rather unenthused for this gamestate as well, so no blame there)
this game isn't why I'm going V/LA, I'm V/LA site wide

anywho, I don't see anything incriminating on your points of casso

This is why I hate endgames like this - when a low power game runs long, it always favors the scum, because everyone left inevitably looks scummy and you're just throwing darts to figure out whom is the worst.

Like, we have the masons, and I have a couple of solid town reads, but I'm fairly sure I can abandon any of them in short notice, because I have no idea on how scum on your site navigate the endgame. Like, look at KoreanBBQ - he *should* be cleared based on that D1 wagon, but his absence makes me nervous. Casso and Sakura just happen to be first on my PoE lynch; that's why I want to lynch either of them. And I have no idea why Sakura is claimstalling..?

In post 7897, goodmorning wrote: Does it matter how frequent it is, seeing as we know it's possible?

I just want to see some completed games.

In post 7813, Sakura Hana wrote:No idea who to lynch atm, i was pretty sure Titus was scum =/

This is a rather self-aware thing to say, and not a good one to admit as scum.

Hm.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7921 (isolation #64) » Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:57 pm

@Sakura

Is there any reason why you haven't claimed yet? If you have, then please point where.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7926 (isolation #65) » Wed Mar 05, 2014 6:56 pm

In post 7923, goodmorning wrote:^Town.

As unhelpful as Sakura may be (she's basically active lurked throughout this Day) I'm inclined to agree with you.

Let's lynch Casso.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7929 (isolation #66) » Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:01 pm

Unvote

Don't want to prematurely end the Day, before Norlkaz and pieguyn show up.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7948 (isolation #67) » Thu Mar 06, 2014 7:37 pm

In post 7938, Norlkaz wrote:
I keep having this feeling where I stop believing SAD would actually flip scum. but the last 4 times I've had this the person actually flipped scum so
I am very thankful for your posts pieguy.
You have reassured me of you town and sakura town and sad | casso | bbq containg the remaining scum.
Also I felt just the slightest bit lonely.
Yay!

Except for Casso, why do I feel bad lynching either of these people?

I mean, I do acknowledge that it's probably the place we're at, but there's that slight bit of trepidation I'm getting.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7949 (isolation #68) » Thu Mar 06, 2014 7:38 pm

I'll be here up until deadline, most likely.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #7976 (isolation #69) » Fri Mar 07, 2014 9:05 pm

PTAP.

Ugh, man, I'm having so much indecision at the moment.

...And then I realize we have 9 people alive, with (likely!) two scum. That means three lynches to go through.

I'll probably hammer somebody in the morning - just doublechecked my schedule and I won't be here @ deadline.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #8022 (isolation #70) » Tue Mar 11, 2014 4:59 pm

PTAP, will post more by Thursday.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #8091 (isolation #71) » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:08 pm

Going to drop this here, and analyze tomorrow.

Looking purely at vote counts + PoE make me think Casso/KoreanBBQ scumteam is a lock.

Spoiler: votals

Prophylaxis · Post Post #8092 (isolation #72) » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:13 pm

In post 8086, pieguyn wrote:I think I'm satisfied with ruling out BBQ as a possible Casso partner. Casso pushing BBQ lynch (especially after pushing SAD lynch in a similar way) makes me think they're not teammates especially with BBQ pushing Casso lynch for a while now

with this in mind I think I can bring myself to be confident enough in my GIF read to call BBQ town

so lynch Casso -> {Proph, Sakura} lynchpool should be enough to win

Hmm, really? I feel like their most recent interactions look like they're setting up for a Setesh/cross-bus.

Vote Casso (L-2)

. Put 'em down.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #8093 (isolation #73) » Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:50 pm

pieguyn, can you link to your most recently completed town game and your most recently completed scumgame?

People are talking about a "tone difference" but I never actually looked through your meta.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #8097 (isolation #74) » Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:03 pm

Alright, thanks. I'll see if I can skim over them if I have time.

I think all I want to do for toDay is for goodmorning and Marangal to reprove their daychat (does anyone have any ideas? This is just mostly me settling paranoia) and lynch Casso.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #8129 (isolation #75) » Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:39 am

PTAR, will post more soon.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #8148 (isolation #76) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:24 pm

Alright, time to catch up on this game.

In post 8098, Casso the King of Seals wrote: @Proph - you think their prior proof is questionable? Also, what's your case on me other than 'oddly easy and available wagon', natch?

Just a bit paranoid, is all.

The "case" on you is simply wagon analysis, and PoE. Llamarble had the scumteam pinned down to {SAD, BBQ, Casso} and I want to carry his torch.

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

(6) -

BROseidon, Ser Arthur Dayne, DOMO

,

MC Maraca

, Casso the King of Seals,

Bert

Ser Arthur Dayne

(5) - Casso the King of Seals,

Bert, Desperado, Cephrir, DOMO

These wagons make you extraordinarily likely to be scum - hence why I bolded them.

In post 8138, KoreanBBQ wrote:And also, why didn't you mark the masons pink?

They're effectively confirmed town, yes, but left them blank due to paranoia.

In post 8139, KoreanBBQ wrote:And the true VC coloring should be unbiased, which means you're not allowed to color your name town.

---------

Logic/PoE time - let's break the game down into chunks.

Current playerlist:

Casso the King of Seals (Vanilla)
Ms Marangal (Mason)
Prophylaxis (Vanilla)
pieguyn (Vanilla)
KoreanBBQ (Vanilla)
goodmorning (Mason)
Sakura Hana (Unclaimed)

Removing myself and the masons from the list.

That leaves four people:

Casso the King of Seals (Vanilla)
pieguyn (Vanilla)
KoreanBBQ (Vanilla)
Sakura Hana (Unclaimed)

I think that pieguyn's behavior has been very solid, and I'm not sure why people have been expressing suspicion of him. He's trying to solve the game and doing it in a logical fashion.

Sakura Hana's mostly there because I think Casso and KoreanBBQ are the remaining scum. I'm a bit troubled by her because she's not doing any work to solve the endgame

at all

- she's just.. there, and that's troublesome. I don't think she would be left unclaimed if she was scum, I think - that's a pretty ballsy move to make that invites suspicion and doesn't really have scum motivation in doing so. She also has lack of self-awareness.

That leaves Casso, KoreanBBQ.

I want to lynch Casso first, and if he flips scum, lynch KoreanBBQ after, and that should win the game.

The vote counts I pulled up make him (Casso) very likely to be scum, and KoreanBBQ has nonexistent interactions with zMuffinMan. I would like to lynch Casso first, as I believe that he has a higher chance of being scum than KoreanBBQ. If either of those two flip town (I doubt they will), then I'm open to looking at Sakura.

Pull heads out of rectums, and let's lynch Casso.

Prophylaxis · Post Post #8154 (isolation #77) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:51 pm

@Korean

Who are your remaining suspects, and why isn't your vote on anyone?

The people who are going to be lynched toDay are either Casso or you, with a random stray vote on me that isn't going to pan out.

If you don't think Casso is scum, and if you won't vote yourself, and you don't understand why Casso is voting me right now.. who do you want to lynch toDay, and why? And why aren't you pushing them, instead of active lurking the Day out?

---

I agree that the early votecounts make you look town, but I don't trust myself on mafiascum meta, and I've heard that it has more.. aberrations wagons like that. Your behavior in-thread has not inspired me, and the total lack of zMuffin interactions is telling. Both of those, plus PoE, trump vote count analysis in the end.

It's basic interaction analysis and PoE - you are the only person that fits in the likely worlds.

And do you remember how did we nabbed zMuffinMan in the first place?

Prophylaxis · Post Post #8314 (isolation #78) » Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:22 am

..Wow? I get back and I'm hammered?

Please lynch Casso and KoreanBBQ. I'm confident that they're the scumteam.

Prophylaxis · Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:52 am

Good game team.

In post 8444, Sakura Hana wrote:holy god, is every scum QT with Nacho and Muffin in it over 600 posts long?

Just add /p1000 to the end of the URL - that will expand it to fit on one page.