NY 168: (GAME OVER) The Mod is Dead, Fire and Ice Edition

[penguin_alien]

Hey people, I should be caught up soon. Let me know if there's anything in particular you want me to address.

[penguin_alien]

Hey people, I should be caught up soon. Let me know if there's anything in particular you want me to address.

scum Deparado
scum Yuni
scum Gamerantz

Mastins alignment

I'll start by saying that I don't have any firm reads off the bat.

Having read those four ISOs more specifically:

Desperado: Well from my experience of his scum game, he sure isn't partners with Yuni. Neither the early game push nor the more recent game defense look like him interacting with scum partners. Overall his thought processes read as natural; not seeing anything I'd want to lynch there.

Yuni: From the start I don't like the reads list that talks about a lot of players and has no reads that actually commit one way or the other. All reads are qualified as 'for now' or some such; easily reversible across the board. The contrast with the firm read on Maxous is disconcerting. Overall if Yuni is scum it's Ice-scum and not scum with Maxous. There's no way she switched her vote from a committed bus to a likely mislynch (given one scum team's odds of nailing another) when it was going through anyways. The switch back to being waffly is surprising given the beginning of the day vindication of her scum read on Maxous being verified. Quite possibly Ice-scum.

Garmr: Overall I think his approach to questioning people is coming from a town mindset. At one point he asks someone about another player's motives, then realizes he fed possible answers to the person he asked. Indicates spontaneous thought processes. He goes after his cases with zeal, beyond what I'd expect for scum hunting in multiball. Probably town.

mastin: I don't see him trying to control the game flow the way he has as scum in my experience. He's giving reads without shoving them down people's throats as the unmitigated truth. Also don't think he'd out his Fire-scum read on Maxous as scum of any type. He's overall not a busser, and announcing a likely cross-kill attempt has zero payoff late in D1, especially since if he wanted town cred he'd have gotten it by virtue of his softer scum read on Maxous from earlier in the day. I'm OK calling him town.

Then the Fire NK of OGML: Nothing in his ISO seems helpful to me. The Toomai interest reads more like scum's at most considering setting up Toomai, but overall not much there.

I'll keep reading ISOs, more thoughts later.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry, I let this get away from me.

I'll start by saying that I don't have any firm reads off the bat.

And how much of the game have you read at the time of that post?

Only what had been posted since my replace-in was announced.

Can I ask who are your strongest reads that you have given so far. Town or scum just so I can get some sort of angle where your thinking from.

Of the four previously given, my town reads on you and mastin are stronger than my town and scum reads on Desperado and Yuni respectively. My takes on people so far follow in my next post tonight (sorry I've been slow getting through all this).

[penguin_alien]

TSO:

Bulbazak:

NJAC:

Matias:

evilpacman18:

PV:

aptil:

RachMarie:

Slandaar:

Yiley:

Toomai:

[penguin_alien]

...that wasn't supposed to post, sorry.

[penguin_alien]

(extremely sorry for being late off the mark on this; no good excuse)

TSO: Town read; seems genuine in his interpretations of other people. Not sure I've seen scum-TSO, but this is consistent with his town attitude I remember most recently.

Bulbazak: Another town read, mostly because I don't get the sense that he's trying to play up his towniness.

NJAC: I've miserably failed at reading his predecessor Antihero two games in a row now. Luckily Antihero did nothing here, so nothing to misinterpret. I don't like NJAC's initial worry about multiball issues, as town's job basically remains the same: scumhunt. Scum's the group that has to adjust strategy most drastically, and especially D1 the multiball part is the least of our worries. Otherwise he seems to be interacting with people he expects to be able to get a handle on. The PV vote in preference to anything more substantial with a flipped scum having happened sets off my radar a bit. Scum lean.

Matias: His statement that there's scum on an eight-person wagon was meh. Especially when he doesn't even take a stand on the wagonee's alignment. Unlikely Fire Scum based on the Maxous call-out is my first impression. That recedes a bit when he puts Maxous as a secondary scum read and votes someone else. ...And then, OK, I can't see him as Fire or Ice scum. No reason to bus that heavily D1, no reason he'd want his team to NK Maxous when he was making this heavy a case on him. Town read.

evilpacman18: Something about him saying JKLM 'looks' bad while Bulbazak 'is' probably town feels like scum trying to set someone up. Why not say Bulbazak looks towny, or JKLM is scum based on posts? The change in word choice pings. Overall he seems really eager to draw connections between unflipped players. Not lining up lynches per se, but definitely crafting a narrative. If he were to flip scum, I get the sense there's a treasure trove in his ISO. Scum lean.

PV: Sorry, pal; I have no clear idea. I like that you had things you wanted me to address, and I'm not getting scum-PV vibes. Inclined to sort more fully in later game; town lean.

aptil: OK, I'm pretty sure my reads on aptil have generally been shit. The tone of his posting is consistent with what I've scum-read in the past and been dead wrong about. I'll put him as town for now for lack of any reason to think he's scum.

RachMarie: I don't see RachMarie's scum game here. Don't think I've seen her in multiball, so this is weak. Very, very slight town read.

Slandaar: He seems to me like someone who directs the game more as town than scum, and he's doing that here. His points come off as pro-town, and he's pushing activity in a way that scum really doesn't have incentive to do in multiball. Town lean.

Yiley: I have no idea what his reasoning is on anything, and he seems happy to leave it that way. Scum lean.

Toomai: Someone else I'm crap at reading. He also expresses concern about multiball, but I'm seeing logic-based play that I like. Reads as town who's trying to scum hunt, if a bit stilted.

[penguin_alien]

Well I didn't really need any more help to vote YC.

Vote: YuniChikako

I don't see anything wrong with p_a's reads post, so...not sure what to think of the slot right now.

Is not thinking anything's wrong with my reads post enough for you to change your negative opinion on my slot? Do you disagree with any of my thoughts therein?

[penguin_alien]

mastin, can you explain your assignation of reads in 768? Because while you say you're good at explaining your reads, that's less true when you're scum seeing what you can get pushed through.

T -> S: Matias, Bulbazak, Garmr, TSO, mastin, Desperado, Slandaar, Toomai, PV, aptil, RachMarie, evilpacman18, Yiley, NJAC, Yuni

VOTE: Yuni

[penguin_alien]

P_A had hardly said anything when I wrote 744. She looks better than JKLM, I suppose, but seems to eager to make these sweeping generalizations before having even interacted with anybody. as far as her read on me, I also didn't like that she specifically ignored the "probably" following "is" gives it the same effect as "looks," essentially, and the possibility that my town read on Bulba could be stronger than my scum read on JKLM. Or anyone really, town reads are much much easier to come by.

Which leads me to my next point, Yuni is obviously fucking town and p_a came on posturing right from the start in preparation to take the easy Yuni lynch. I could say the same thing here, isn't it convenient that her read on Yuni, who's got a wagon about to complete on her, is "quite possibly town" where everyone else is "scum lean."

Matias: Yuni not addressing you is another indicator that she's more concerned with scumhunting than her own survival.

She's really clearly town here.

I took a look back at the VCs, Desperado looks frikkin terrible, he's probably scum. Yiley probably needs lynching too.

Sweeping generalizations? You mean reads?

Why is Yuni obvtown? I agree that it would be scummy if she was replying to accusations at the expense of scum-hunting, but not engaging at all is just as bad.

What specifically has Desperado done with his vote that looks terrible/scummy to you? I see Yiley-scum as well, but I'm surprised you see Yiley-scum yet apparently dislike my reads.

Bulbazak, as far as mastin2 goes, I agree with you that his posts where he pushes flimsy reads as far more ironclad than they are are emblematic of his scum game. What makes me less sure is that he doesn't seem to have as much of an agenda as I've seen from scum-him recently. It's like he's putting out bald-faced reads, but he's missing that insistence that everyone else fall in line.

Also, you mention evilpacman18: I'm probably biased since he's scum-reading me, but I'm having a hard time seeing how his defense of Yuni is coming from town. And his saying that I said Yuni is quite possible [ice-scum] (as I assume he meant) in contrast to my other reads is rather confusing to me. I was specifically asked about Yuni, and in doing a more detailed consideration of her posts, I came to a conclusion about her likely affiliation. He's trying to throw anything at the wall to see what sticks.

Yuni, if you're not interested in addressing the scum reads on you, can I get a clear case from you on why Toomai is your lynch choice?

[penguin_alien]

Post incoming. Enjoy the suspense.

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, so I was going to be all cagey and claim X-shot, but Yiley's flip makes it pretty clear that I'm one-shot. I'm the one-shot Ice Cop. I investigated evilpacman18 last night, and he's Ice. I don't particularly give a rat's ass if he wants to 1v1 me on this, since I'm useless past this point. Y'all can lynch me first and hope Fire kills him upon my flip if you'd like, as I realize my credibility overall is shot to hell.

VOTE: evilpacman18

However, any votes not for me or evilpacman18 from here on out will be read as scum claims.

No, JKLM didn't use his shot N1, to my admitted jubilation. That's why I opened my first serious post with this:

I'll start by saying that I don't have any firm reads off the bat.

So that in the unlikely event I was NK'd people would know that I didn't have investigation results.

I thought about investigating NJAC, but I was less sure about him, plus I wanted to get a better sense of whether evilpacman's scum read on Yiley was coming from certain scum or possible scum. Moot now, but w/e.

Questions? Ask.

P-edit: with mastin's posts...

[penguin_alien]

Actually, it's more true for when I'm scum, not less. But basically...

Also, this is flat-out not true. Scum-you enjoys proclaiming just how scummy other people are with zero need to back it up. I'm not buying it. Sing me another one.

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, you were my other choice, mastin, but I figured I needed to go for someone I had a stronger scum read on who would also give me info about another scum read. Plus, a) Bulbazak's plenty engaged with you, and b) I figured I might just be a bit paranoid. Oh, and c) I found scum, so I'm not letting you make me feel badly about my target choice. Normally with a cop role I might have investigated someone I was more null on, but since a clear here is only a half-clear, guilties are more useful goals.

TSO, forget my ego; I'm not dumb enough as Fire to screw over my last scum buddy with a claim like this if it's 13:3:3, as Ice I have no motive to hasten cracking open my scum team, and there's no way in hell I'm fakeclaiming as town after this past month.

Toomai and RachMarie would be my best guesses for scum on the wagon, but that's rather stale now with confirmation of EPM-scum and refutation of Yiley-scum. I'll check it out tonight.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry, I didn't get around to this last night. To prevent a quickhammer:

UNVOTE: EPM

Thoughts tonight, promise.

[penguin_alien]

Toomai and mastin make me nervous. I do agree that mastin isn't fire Mafia.

Sorry, falling asleep. More in the morning.

[penguin_alien]

Former T -> S:

Matias

, Bulbazak, Garmr, TSO, mastin, Desperado, Slandaar, Toomai, PV, aptil, RachMarie,

evilpacman18

,

Yiley

, NJAC,

Yuni

Updated T -> S: Bulbazak, Garmr, TSO, Slandaar, Desperado, RachMarie, aptil, NJAC, mastin, Toomai

For my later reference.

An official vote count would be convenient too.

[penguin_alien]

penguin_alien, what was your rationale for using the ice inspection on evilpacman?

Desperado and Toomai -should- be scum, since I just ISO'd Desp and it's looking bad.

Normally I'd have investigated a null read, but since I was only good for finding half the scum, I figured I'd better go with someone I thought I might actually get a guilty on if they were Ice. evilpacman18 wasn't playing the way he did in the mini normal we had together where he was town. He didn't seem likely to be Fire at all, which meant an innocent result would have gone a good way toward putting him in my town pile. Plus he was pushing on Yiley, and I wanted to get a sense of what was going on there, as Yiley was another of my scum reads, albeit incorrect.

Toomai works for me, although I'm also happy to see NJAC hang.

VOTE: NJAC

[penguin_alien]

Why wouldn't he be Fire?

The way he presented his scum reads, he went to a lot of trouble to isolate the Fire team. Then his leftover scum reads just kind of got thrown over to Ice.

What do you think of Rach and NJAC? What's making you think Desperado's also scum?

[penguin_alien]

So NJAC's gone basically until deadline.

UNVOTE: NJAC

Stepping back here, with 11 alive, likely four scum left grouped at 2:2, a mislynch today potentially puts us at 8 alive tomorrow with 4:2:2 as the worst-case scenario. We can bank on having a doctor. That the doctor was backed up indicates a premium on the protective side over the investigative, which makes me think scum are low-powered as well, given that the cops here are only 50-50 and limited shot.

So I'm really not sure why T S O is so interested in why I investigated evilpacman18 when I explained it yesterday as well. If he wanted to know if I had any other resultant reads, great. But that's not what I'm seeing.

Garmr, where do you get PV-scum from?

I like the Toomai wagon composition more than the aptil one.

VOTE: Toomai

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Toomai

[penguin_alien]

TSO, why are you still voting the claimed town doctor?

[penguin_alien]

While noting that you didn't ask me, I think it's lousy.

VOTE: Desperado

[penguin_alien]

Well, we're down to 11. Non-overlapping kills takes us to eight and then five. Four scum left. Depending on who exactly the scum are and how well they've avoided scrutiny, going for broke in trying to get the doctor lynched might not be the worst play. If scum manage not to overlap and not to kill one another, we need to lynch perfectly from here on out. Lynching scum at 11, 8, 5, takes us to 3p LyLo.

I wouldn't be surprised if this set-up had a decent amount in common with the Open Fire and Ice set-up, in which case it makes sense that scum gets an extra person on each team, compensated by a back-up doc and two one-shot investigations on town's side.

Slandaar, yes, it's a bad argument, but on the flip side, what's the town logic behind it? Especially after 1014 and 1015?

[penguin_alien]

Toomai hasn't been counterclaimed with two-three days left, and the cited posts were the logical place for Desperado to do so if that's what was going on. I don't see how we would have had a town nurse positioned to inherit a scum doctor role, given that that's an extra punishment for scum losing a PR, to have it fall into town hands. Desperado is a rational player, and his continuing to push this just doesn't make sense.

[penguin_alien]

NJAC is apparently still V/LA. I'm still scum-reading his posts from before and don't want him let off the hook tomorrow.

I'll move to RachMarie to avoid a NL, but I still don't get Desperado's motivations today.

[penguin_alien]

Thanks for the game, JacobSavage and CityElectric!

That was a nail-biter. Kind of annoyed I let NJAC off the hook while I was alive, but since we got Desperado that day it worked out. Frustrating as that endgame was to watch, y'all did a nice job in the end, so.

Looking forward to the QTs!