Mafia 96 - Murder in Emerald City (Game Over!)

[The Fonz]

.....
KK, that was inspired. KMD, why didn't you say you were the mystical neighbor?

Why should he? There was no evidence of him being it, and everyone was assuming that the last neighbour was scum. There was no benefit to honest claiming there.

Re: KK, I've been saying for MONTHS that it is an excellent move for scum to claim miller first post in towns that are unwilling to policy lynch claimed millers. Viz- three of the last four people i've seen do it have been scum. Throw in a bit of bussing, which won't work because enough people are constitutionally opposed to good town play (ie policy-lynching) and it's pretty much invincible.

Xyl gets town MVP. Hands down.

Yup. I remember seeing the posts when he identified Kmd and Spyre as town and SC, Faraday, and CKD as scum and thought 'Holy crap, this guy is good.' For some reason, all the dead town in Valhalla thought Xyl was scum. I'll never fathom that. Rofl should be glad he died when he did, or this would have been a WiH level embarassment.

for now on..I will lynch/kill a claimed miller....using this game to do it.

*Applauds*

Xyl was on point...just hit the wrong scum first.

he should have seen that I wasnt part of a group...I had no friends in this town...

By the time that was obvious, you were in quicklynch range. But seriously, Xyl vs CKD here was the single biggest pwning of a scum by a town i've seen in a long time.

. It also helped that the power roles revealed themselves at just the right times that no one ever had much cause to wonder why the "confirmed" town player was being left alive.

Meh, even with a trusted miller, it's still better to go power role hunting.

Also, the town was somewhat underpowered for the scum setup, mainly because of the mason/neighbor bastardry. The neighbors were practically vanilla townies, so the only real town power was two masons, a jailkeeper, a cop, and a vig... not nearly enough to counterbalance the scum.

What? That's PLENTY of town power in a game with the strong possibility of crosskills. If KK hadn't claimed miller, town might well have won this one comfortably.

That was part of it.

I meant when, yesterday, you wouldn't vote for Xyl while calling him scum. No numbers added up to it being lylo so it didn't make sense.

Oh yeah, that was scummy as FUCK. Xyl was completely right.

I feel they are scum together, but i will be more sure xyl's scum if lowell is than vice versa =

I think Xyl is more likely to be scum than Lowell.

There is just no way out of that.

the only reason I went hard at Mastin was (and no offense Mastin) he was so incredibly scummy. in out QT, I tried to get him to settle down, but he refused. He thought that he posting style is OBVtown...at any rate, I am going to have to add him to the "cant join a game he is in" list. .

Arguing that the way you're behaving is 'a nulltell' rather than trying to argue it is beneficial to the town is a massive scumtell in my book.

[The Fonz]

I don't care what conventional wisdom says, this town needed more power.

Five out of seventeen power, plus the neighbours. What did you want, a 24 player game with only four VT? Besides, what could you add? Cop + Doc = follow the cop. Maybe one watcher or tracker might have helped, but i can't see that really being the difference between balanced and not here. I never like placing too much emphasis on the nightgame, it makes for swingy and unfun games. Adding extra townies or going daystart is a much better way to improve a town's chances than adding more swingy power roles.

[The Fonz]

Also:

I think I've figured out who's scum. If I die please tell the rest of the town that I thought SpyreX, Kmd4390, and Xylthixlm were scum.

Lol 0-for.

[The Fonz]

6/24 would be exactly 1/4. Scum needs generally to be 1/4 to 1/3 of total. Assuming the vig holds fire:

N0 two townies down. 15-4-3.
Mislynch. 14-4-3.
N1 two townies down. 12-4-3.
Mislynch. 13-4-3.
N2 two town down. 12-4-3.
Mislynch. 11-4-3.
N3 two town down. 9-4-3.
Mislynch. 8-4-3.

Assuming all mislynches, and no crosskills, the earliest the town can lose majority is Night four. As a worst case scenario, four mislynches with the scum failing to crosskill for five nights is not bad, at all. Now add in that the cop and the masons were effectively unlynchable. Mountainous multiball, at 8-2-2, is not especially scum-favouring. 17-4-3 with town power should not be remotely unbalanced.


The town lynched five times, and never hit vermillion. That's why they lost.

[The Fonz]

Better than them happening to be two vanillas.

[The Fonz]

To put it another way: town lynched five times, hit scum twice, and lost anyways.

Because they hit THE SAME scumgroup both times. Lynching CKD in that situation was the worst thing you could do- worse than mislynching. No one even considered the possibility of him being cerulean that last day.

All three scum killed by town were the same group. That's just unlucky. The vermillions deserved to win, because they got to the sixth night without a single one of their group lynched. Hell, if town had no lynched, there was a near-certainty of double crosskill there.

You consistently point out that town scumhunted with a decent success rate, and ignore the fact that they had no success whatsoever in hunting the group that was the greater threat. Hell, Faraday basically active lurked through, and pretty much no one called him on it at all.

[The Fonz]

But the games on IRC are generally smaller and significantly more night-based than the ones on here. (Besides, 50% town win across the board is overpowered. 50% is fine in single scumgroup games, but put in even an SK and it's overpowered. In two-family games, you should be aiming for something in the region of 40-30-30).

The town would be expected, given the unlynchables, to lynch at 41%. (You could argue this would be reduced by scum correctly claiming power, but then, that would just lead to town lynches and crosskills, which ultimately balances). It lynched at forty, so it's at about par. HOWEVER, the distribution of 'correct' lynches was skewed in a very unhelpful manner.

More than half the town having power roles is just shit. It isn't fun, and I couldn't give a crap if it's balanced, to be honest. So long as random lynching indicates that the town would win at least 40% and/or be the group with the single highest winning percentage, if town is continually falling short of that, then it indicates that town is playing worse than random lynching. All the invitationals followed 'conventional' wisdom, and they all ended in town wins. Which leads me to the conclusion that it's VI players, not the setups, that are dragging the win percentages down.

I often think, nowadays, that you could pretty much accurately predict the results of 80%, maybe 90 of games as an outsider looking at the setup simply by saying that the side which has the lower concentration of VIs on their side wins.

[The Fonz]

FIVE roleblockers?

Iesus.

[The Fonz]

Your argument with CKD clearly begs to differ. And I thought your logical 'What SCM says and does contradict each other' case was excellent. I think it's more that the masons were hopelessly lost in this game. Oh, and Rofl was playing. And that no-one trusted you.

[The Fonz]

SCM, you're still misrepresenting Xyl.

He didn't have a gut read on Spyre. He said that, because Spyre appeared to be having gut reads and acting on them, Spyre was likely town. I think X is doing Y, which is hard to fake as scum, is not a gut read, it's a towntell read.

[The Fonz]

Yes, because to get someone else to join a wagon based on a scum read, you need to convince the other players of one read.

To get someone to join a PoE wagon, you have to convince them of three or four town reads. I really, really hate process of elimination, though, since I always seem to get fingered as scum by PoE when I'm town.

[The Fonz]

Well, I tend to make my reads on a basis of individual things that make absolutely no sense for town, rather than 'this makes perfect sense for scum.' I tend to dislike cases based on 'well, he might have meant this by this, and done that for this motive...' what is it Xyl says? You can make ANYONE look scummy by a PbPA.

Which reminds me, I think we should add 'unreasonable burden of proof' to the logical fallacies section of the wiki. Like when Rofl was trying to get Xyl here to provide reasons why he would never possibly do the things he was doing as scum.

[The Fonz]

EBWOP: I see it's there. Though not in the complete form i would like.