Mafia 89: Revenge (Game Over)

[armlx]

Will reread tonight probably.

[armlx]

Vote Lowell

Reminds me of my last game with Lowell scum, taking sides in wagons while distancing from them.

[armlx]

Shanba: Ongoing.

[armlx]

Well, it's day one, so a weak reason for a vote is a lot better than no reason for a vote.

But a blatantly false reason is worse then no reason.

[armlx]

True, are you saying that you think KoC's behavior has been pro-town, nuetral, or anti-town?

I would not define it as anti-town at this time.

[armlx]

Agree. Santos's bandwagon vote, in particular, looks very opportunistic.

Agree, complete 180 from his previous post.

[armlx]

Honestly, I could go for either Lowell or KoC at this point. The reason I have my vote for KoC at this point is that Lowell just seems to be playing poorly, wheras KoC seems to be methodically trying to hinder the town.

What specifically gives you that impression?

[armlx]

Santos and Azrael are town. Don't ask how I know. Magic.

This is standard Lowell scum behavior. Lynch PLZ.

[armlx]

MASS CLAIM D1 IS BAD.

DO NOT DO IT.

Thanks. Late game its really strong, not D1.

Epic fail on Azrael's part.

[armlx]

also, it seems to me like Lowell's pretty lazy as town, too?

Its more that specific line.

Am I wrong here, or is MonkeyMan arguing a misguided fight?

MonkeyMan appears to be arguing by saying nothing here.

[armlx]

The issue is I'm reading your post, and it doesn't look like you are actually making a point in any direction.

[armlx]

My point is that role-fishing can be pro-town when done right.

But that's not role fishing......

[armlx]

Ok. So, Lowell is scum here, can we lynch him?

[armlx]

Well, I don't know that he's scum, but he's certainly scum-my. I'd go with a consensus lynch on him, as well as a few others.

This is also scummy. Pre-emptive bandwagon justification.

[armlx]

No, it's not. I don't need to justify my vote, as I've already stated my reasoning.

I was referring to the consensus lynch part on a few others. Basically leaves you open to wagon anyone.

[armlx]

No, just the four I've already mentioned and explained.

That is not what your post looks like as is, though your intent is now clear.

[armlx]

Hmmm, usually in my experience looking for scum is something townies do. I would think you would encourage it, not the other way around.

Again with the completely non-relevant statements in an argument.

[armlx]

Hmmm, usually in my experience looking for scum is something townies do. I would think you would encourage it, not the other way around.

Again with the completely non-relevant statements in an argument.

Well, considering you won't say exactly what you mean I wouldn't talk.

I did say exactly what I meant.

[armlx]

I'd bet my left nut you're scum.

So that's 2 then. 3 +/- SK more to go.

[armlx]

I keep getting nath'ed on all the good lines....

Votecount:
Knight of Cydonia - 4 ( Lowell, farside22, MonkeyMan576, Santos)
Santos - 4 (ahaad, q21, Shanba, BridgesAndBaloons)
Lowell - 3 (super random dude, Knight of Cydonia, armlx)
MonkeyMan576 - 3 (Sun Tzu, kuribo, Light-kun)
killa seven - 1 (Jebus)
Not voting: johhan, sekinj, killa seven, PerArdua, alvinz95, -TinVision-, Azrael001
With 22 alive, it's 12 to lynch.

[armlx]

No, I'm admitting I need to watch the way I say things more carefully, but my behavior is still pro-town.

Your defense is simply "No, I'm being pro-town". Not why, just IAMSTFU.

And a chainsaw defense (in the currently common use) is when player A is under pressure from player B and player C attacks player B on a weak basis, causing player B to go on the defense and stop attacking A. It is slightly indicative of a A-C grouping, more so depending on how loose the attack on B is.

[armlx]

I am being pro-town BECAUSE I AM LOOKING FOR SCUM, which is more than can be said for many players thus far.

Then you did something scummy, and the fact you were looking for scum is weighed as well as that.

So something that most players learn to avoid by the end of their first game, ok.

Learn to avoid..... sorta. It's often a +EV maneuver for scum, except when the meta attacks it for being scummy.

[armlx]

Learn to avoid..... sorta. It's often a +EV maneuver for scum, except when the meta attacks it for being scummy.

It's also something that townies sometimes see when it isn't there. (ie, even if A and C are both scum, discrediting B to save A may not have been C's intention)

This too.

[armlx]

Only scum wish for day to end early.

I don't call 15 pages of discussion "early."

Long days help the town, excessively long days hurt them because good ideas are often eventually discarded, bandwagons lose steam, and scum slip out of the noose while their partners have more time to gauge a proper town response.

This.

I'm completely sold Lowell is scum for meta reasons. That said, Monkey is also a legit lynch I would be willing to vote towards if it turns out a Lowell lynch isn't going to happen.

[armlx]

I'm willing to jump ship. If for no other reason than I respect the people voting for him...

unvote, vote monkey

It honestly gets worse every post.....

Can we lynch this man. Please?

[armlx]

if you have a case against Lowell that is stronger, please present it.

His posts are near identical to posts he made last time I saw him lynched as scum and not at all like the posts he made when I've seen him as town?

[armlx]

Can we just pick someone already?

Can we lynch this man (lowell). Please?

I notice a common theme.

[armlx]

armlx (I think), please post where he was scum and lynched for the same type of post

Shanba: Ongoing.

[armlx]

Lowell, what does KoC have to do with this, at all.

[armlx]

Where we disagree is that I think YOU and monkey are scum bussing one another.

Same page.

[armlx]

367 is the dumbest meta ever.

Even KoC isn't voting me at this point. How can I possibly be scum?

I was referring to this post.

[armlx]

armlx - you may be right about Lowell. But I hope you realise that we cannot vote based on your meta without supporting evidence for that meta.

Don't worry, won't be long.

[armlx]

Armlx, do you completely object to voting Monkey man or have some otherwise reason to not vote for him.

I think Lowell is more likely to be scum then him.

[armlx]

The slip discussion is weak at best.

[armlx]

I feel santos is rolefishing: stop it. I'll vote you tomorrow anyway.

I lol'ed. That's weak. Many better things to accuse Santos of.

[armlx]

Ok, fine, you're not fishing, but you're directing the power role, thus rendering him useless if the Mafia have a roleblocker.

???

You mean a doctor?

The MonkeyMan wagon feels very scum driven to me.

[armlx]

The emphasis on the word town in the above post plus the fact watcher/tracker is a scumable role makes me wary. Still want more Lowell lynch.

[armlx]

and it is quite a good role to fakeclaim...

Lol. Watcher is probably one of the MOST confirmable roles, in the sense that fake watcher results are very easy to disprove.

[armlx]

thereby outing a powerrole... brilliant.

Cop or doc claim does this easier.

The flop there by mykonian is odd though.

[armlx]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... start=1350

Game I'm using as reference for Lowell.

[armlx]

armlx, can you give an explanation of why that meta matches what Lowell is doing here? And can you also compare it to a game where Lowell was town? If you can do these things, your meta may actually be worth something. If not, I don't see your reason for suspecting him without actual points from this game.

Its exactly the same behavior. Same posting style in large analysis, same aversion to a wagon on a newbish person early.

Compare to

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8167

Where there is no major analysis, lots of straight up wagoning, etc.

[armlx]

Vote:Monkeyman576

for now. All the Mafia can't be on that lynch, there are 5 voting... and I've never seen a Mafia that big.

kuribo has no words for this.

Did you read President Mafia after you were lynched? Mainly the part where he just fake claimed Killer Cop out of the blue.

[armlx]

armlx, I've played about a billion games. Your metas are useless. Find a new hobby.

That's awesome. Illogical ad hom is your response.

[armlx]

It's a personal attack on my play style with no logical backing. Seems ad hom to me.

[armlx]

is it a personal attack, or is an attack on your playstyle?

It can be both. His argument is utterly illogical with no reasoning behind it. Mine was with an example, which while I could not show at the time now have.

[armlx]

I don't see the case against guy0 at all at this point. He seems like textbook newbie town to me.

You guys are sensitive. So Azrael speculates on the roles. This doesn't matter.

Same protecting of a newbie.

I explained how he made the same analysis style of post in each game, similar patterns.

Then abandons the newbie protection for voting a newbish player when the wagon becomes viable.

[armlx]

what do you say armlx?

I didn't just start this train of thought. I said it like 3-4 pages ago, only the game I referenced was still in end game at that time.

[armlx]

i didn't say you just started it

How is it deflection then? Who was attacking me at the point I started that line of logic that would cause me to want to deflect?

Votecount:
Lowell - 4 (popsofctown, armlx, MonkeyMan576, Vi)
MonkeyMan576 - 3 (Sun Tzu, Knight of Cydonia, Mafiaplayer)
magisterrain - 2 (Kmd4390, Lowell)
Sun Tzu - 1 (kuribo)
armlx - 1 (magisterrain)
Not voting: killa seven, CF Riot, alvinz95, -TinVision-, Yosarian2, Shanba, BridgesAndBaloons, Light-kun, Azrael001, mykonian
With 21 alive, it's 11 to lynch.

[armlx]

22 alive, MP is more of a vig problem then a lynch problem given his general meta. If he is alive tomorrow, then we weight lynching him, but without a night where we can eliminate him without a lynch he's just a utility lynch.

[armlx]

I can tell you that if you kill me you'll regret it. I can help things quite a lot.

and/or

[armlx]

Jester's are pretty common at the forum where I usually play.

Jester is the nut low. Punishes the town for correct play...

[armlx]

I didn't claim I was VANILLA townie, I just claimed townie.

Talk about useless.

[armlx]

Jesus Howard Christ. Is there any way we can lynch three people today? Because I tell ya, the play today makes me want to kill myself and everyone around me.

This.

[armlx]

Deflection to lurkers, lame.

If I wasn't sure Lowell was scum....

[armlx]

armlx, why are you so certain of lowell? i will show later why he is prob not scum.

Why later, why not now?

How unsure are you about magis, though?

I'll have to double check that.

[armlx]

Although, I was suspicious of Armlx for not voting Magis sooner...

Its mainly an issue due to a very similar scenario (mainly re: his early claim, which really started the wagon IMO) in a game that is currently ongoing (yet I am dead in) where a player did exactly the same thing and flipped town. I'm not unwilling to call people out on it, I'm just weighing much more heavily the possibility of simple stupidity being the cause.

That and I am/was too busy trying to explain the Lowell issue in context of the just ended game I referenced.

[armlx]

I'm pretty sure Kuribo answered the question pretty aptly here.

[armlx]

The only way he could sabotage his own side as town is if he's some sort of bomb, which I doubt.

He could false claim cop or doc for no reason. That would be pretty shitty.

[armlx]

before you bring him on idea's, could we lynch him?

Uhhh.... if he reclaims we lynch him regardless....

and/or could we stop playing a mini normal? To no one in person, but a bit more activity could be fun.

Huh?

[armlx]

Auld Lang Syne

Should old scum-tells be forgot
And never brought to mind
Should day 1 scum tells be forgot
And days of o'lang syne...

It's re-read day 1 time, my friend
It's re-read day 1 time
I'll find those damn scum tells yet
It's re-read day 1 time

Oh sure, day 1 was long ago
This game's been two years long...
But now we know that Glork was scum
I fear, it's re-read time...

This is par for the course.

[armlx]

Vote Lowell

Continuing from yesterday. Its even worse in the context of the monkey vote likely being a weak ass bus that he abandons for the subsequent wagon.

[armlx]

CFR, I'd actually be unsure whether the assumed vig shot was K7 or Monkeyman. I can imagine a SK killing the claimed power role and a vig killing K7 out of policy reasons very easily.

That said, the D1 lynch wagon was weak in general.

Votecount:
Lowell - 1 (armlx)
Not voting: Shanba, Vi, alvinz95, -TinVision, kuribo, Light-kun, Sun Tzu, mykonian, Lowell, Azrael001, Yosarian2, CF Riot, popsofctown, Knight of Cydonia, BridgesAndBaloons, Mafiaplayer

With 17 alive, it's 9 to lynch.

[armlx]

I actually agree with mykonian, only scum group 2 is the SK.

Oh, and

Mod, title update please

?

Beat you to it.

[armlx]

@armlx: I don't understand the meta-reasons for the Lowell hate. Could you please explain?

I don't see the case against guy0 at all at this point. He seems like textbook newbie town to me.

You guys are sensitive. So Azrael speculates on the roles. This doesn't matter.

Same protecting of a newbie.

I explained how he made the same analysis style of post in each game, similar patterns.

Then abandons the newbie protection for voting a newbish player when the wagon becomes viable.

[armlx]

Yos: I say we just ignore MP for the moment, as presumably there is a vig to solve this problem given last night's results.

[armlx]

Why, persay, would you call a vig to attack a town roleblocker?

Because I have no reason to assume you are telling the truth regardless of alignment, especially given your "night result" and, are to put it lightly, fucking worthless at scum hunting.

KoC, your numbers are off. Its most likely 5 scum in one group, 1 SK, and 1 town vig as the killing groups. In general, the rule is (number of players/4) scum, with each mafiate for a single group being 1, SK being .5, cult being somewhere between 2 and 3, and each mafia member in a 2 group system being 3/4ths.

[armlx]

kuribo, the odds he is just dumb and town lying are significantly high to the point a lynch is worthless given a more or less known vig in the set up.

[armlx]

Goddamnit, just because the mod does something out of the ordinary people are attacking me?

Yes, especially given the fact Phate is an IRC player who lives in the world of standard PMs.

[armlx]

kuribo, the odds he is just dumb and town lying are significantly high to the point a lynch is worthless given a more or less known vig in the set up.

everytime I've ever played with MP, he's made some retarded roleclaim, and everytime he's come up scum

Have you played with him as town? I don't think I have, so I'm just wondering.

[armlx]

The last 2 posts are quality shit.

[armlx]

EBWODP: Also, if MP isn't dead tomorrow, no need for the vig to claim, it would be obvious he is mafia GF or NK immune SK who has to be lynched.

[armlx]

Does MP need to be lynched or vigged? There doesn't seem to be a consensus. I'm sort of indifferent. The N1 results strongly suggest we have a vig, so MP can be left to the night. On top of that, MM's death suggests there's no mafia doc.

He just needs to be removed from the game in some manner.

[armlx]

unvote

One way or the other has to be better, and i'd like to know what it is. Why don't you care which way it happens armlx? Can you show me how the two are equivalent actions?

The vig kill is better, as a lynch on him is more or less just going to be a bunch of people piling on, which probably won't say much about their alignments, where as another lynch would give us info.

[armlx]

Ugh. You didn't even read. I wasn't informed of my success, I was informed of my failure due to being blocked.

Neither of which usually happens.

[armlx]

When i asked which was best, why didn't you just tell me a vigging? You've obviously thought about it, you told kuribo a vigging was better a page ago. LAL anyone?

1) I'm not completely opposed to a lynch. I would not be sad if MP was todays lynch, it would just be suboptimal.

2) Lol's at you trying to invoke LAL.

[armlx]

So you endorse suboptimal town play?

Your misreps just keep leveling up every post. Endorse, never said that. But if it happens, its not the worst ever. Its better then lynching someone not acting scummy.

[armlx]

I'm a little uncomftorable about the whole "We don't want to lynch X today, let's have the vig kill him instead" thing; Armlx, if you think Mafiaplayer is scum, why wouldn't you want to kill him today? Especally since we don't even know for sure that there is a vig, let alone if a hypothetical vig kill attempt on mafiaplayer would succeed. And if you don't think he's scum, then again, why would you want him vigged?

I'm not sure either way. Honestly, he's basically just worthless and should have been policy vigged like K7 probably was N1.

[armlx]

I endorse the above product and/or service.

[armlx]

There's probably some WIFOM in there, but that makes a lot of sense....

Wish you would have waited until some people like -tinvision- checked the thread

That actually makes no sense what so ever.....

[armlx]

Its rare if ever that 100% of scum are on any lynch ever. And often said easy lynches aren't as scum filled as expected. They do tend to be above average IF the situation is simply that, but its not in this scenario at all.

[armlx]

Look among them, all scum will be on my lynch.

Unvote:Mafiaplayer

I didn't lol.

[armlx]

I unvoted as a response to Azrael unvoting; it doesn't look like I'll be lynched today.

I mean, I didn't expect anything more from you.

[armlx]

Because the fact the lynch on him is minimal info at best and the odds of him being scum, IMHO, are lessened by the fact the odds of him being just completely brainless town are more then 0%.

[armlx]

Do you think the chance of that is high

Yes.

And if so, why do you want him vigged, if you think there's a chance he might really be a town power role?

Oh, I doubt he is a power role.

[armlx]

I feel like my point is being misinterpreted here.

My point is that MP is so far out of the standard meta of play that so called "standard" tells don't actually apply, meaning our ability to determine his alignment is pretty much null. He is also not contributing to town discussion, and as such is pretty much a dead weight vote that would be better off removed from the game.

[armlx]

I endorse the above product and/or service. We also need more Lowell lynch.

[armlx]

I think that judging by his actions he is almost certainly scum.

So why aren't you voting him?

If we did immediately vote MP, it would be night again, and tomorrow we'd be in the same boat as today, only with fewer chances to screw up. Do you not think that as a group we have a better chance of finding scum than one person with no day discussion to go by?

So... your logic is you don't want to lynch someone you feel is obv scum because that would bring the game closer to end.

Pro Tip: When you lynch a scum, the worst case number of lynches till lynch or lose does not decrease.

[armlx]

Was this praise or not?

It was praise.

shitty quality = bad
quality shit = good
first rate bull shit = bad.
English = all of the above.

[armlx]

Essentially I am banking on the whole "two heads are better than one" thing. We have a better chance of picking scum during the day than the Vig does at night. So we can offer the obv scum to him, improving his odds, while not losing a day of useful posts.

Also, disagree on this completely. 1) The obv scum aren't always scum, so lynching them is relevant and 2) I've seen vigilantes be far more accurate then lynches in the past, especially early game.

[armlx]

Aaaand you simulpost to reinforce your new position against vigging MP. Am i the only one who sees anything scummy in armlx's inconsistencies?

WHEN DID I SAY I DIDNT WANT TO VIG MP.

I merely feel Azrael's logic is poor.

Your completely false attacks are getting boring.

[armlx]

mafia player just needs to be removed from this game one way or another.

say the options are equally good

Bold the exact part where I actually said that and not "Lynch is bad, but worse could happen".

[armlx]

Now that I think of it, if there is a mafia doctor, they could protect MP even if he is innocent, thus wasting not only the kill tonight, but the lynch tomorrow, if he lived, and there were no vig kill, we'd almost certainly lynch him. Perhaps a bird in the hand is, in fact, better than two in the bush...

Why is this different then lynching him today in the scenario you are describing? (He is town, mafia have a doctor)

Again, pops, that is EXACTLY me saying "Lynch is bad, worse could happen though".

[armlx]

That quote doesn't suggest any inequality between the two options. It implies both are good options. You can't breathe new life into your old words armlx, this is what you said.

I later elaborated.......

[armlx]

You didn't elaborate on how equal they are. You elaborated on how your answer wasn't exactly expressing yoru position in the first place and how it's actually not that way. You're inconsistent.

I elaborated because my first answer was unclear, and now you are misrepresenting it to mean otherwise.

[armlx]

Also, note that armlx doesn't say "he should be lynched or vigged". Perhaps he's trying to hint to his scumbuddies before night that MafiaPlayer would be an optimal night-kill?

I rofl'ed.

[armlx]

Kuribo, I think it was a joke.

On the topic, I did see a game where the scum NK'ed Empking. I definitely cheered the following morning.

[armlx]

Wait, is Empking a role or a person?

A person, who is somewhere between MP and K7 on the scale of competence at mafia.

Also, Azrael, how do you factor in that mafia doctors are scarce at best?

[armlx]

Light-kun, if you (or Azrael) can go back in the normal forum and point me to all the games from the past year with mafia doctors and it turns out to be more common then I assume, I'll consider that. Otherwise, your argument holds the same weight as every other time someone has brought up the "Oh look, armlx just said obvious conclusion X without saying it was possibly wrong, he must be scum with info" argument, which is 0.

[armlx]

Armlx it now looks as though you support the Vig killing MP rather than the vote. Would you come right out and say which of the two options you prefer and why. All of this double talk is irritating.

I'VE SAID VIG IS BETTER FOR LIKE 5 PAGES. GOD DAMN IT, PEOPLE, READ MY POSTS IN CONTEXT.

Also, Azrael, if anything, the fact you are playing around a mafia doctor means you have info there is one, not the other way around, and even THAT is loose. Also, what Pops said.

It was just something to consider. I don't really think that the mafia have a doctor, but they might have some other role that benefits from knowing who the Vig target is. Jack of all trades or some such.

Link to said role existing ever.

At this point though, I think that the day has gone on long enough for us to have some net gain if info for the town. One of the major reasons for holding off on the MP vote was to prevent a premature ending to the game.

I'm baffled.

Votecount:
Lowell - 3 (armlx, Knight of Cydonia, Shanba)
armlx - 2 (popsofctown, Azrael001)
Light-kun - 1 (CF Riot)
Vi - 1 (Light-kun)
Mafiaplayer - 1 (Yosarian2)
Not voting: Vi, alvinz95, -TinVision, Sun Tzu, mykonian, Lowell, BridgesAndBaloons, Mafiaplayer, kuribo

With 17 alive, it's 9 to lynch.

[armlx]

If he is scum, he's quite likely to be a mafia role blocker, isn't he?

Not really. Last time I played with him as scum, he claimed killer cop out of no where and got lynched as a goon.

[armlx]

I no longer think MP is town. The mod telling him he was roleblocked thing is just too much. That said, I'd rather kill someone else. One of the many killing factions will take care of him.

GOD THIS SO BAD.

Honestly, if you think he is scum, you lynch him. If you think he is just useless and unreadable, you vig him.

[armlx]

Lowell's most recent post surprises me about as much as the sun coming up this morning.

What happened, Lowell, did your scum buddy just screw you guys over?

Agree. Honestly, if anything in this thread makes me think MP is scum, its that last post.

[armlx]

FOS armlx. There was some buddying between monkey and armlx back in D1. monkey was mostly a newbie. Experienced scum rarely try a "let's knock the shit out of each other" gambit with newbie teammates. It doesn't always work, often breeds anger, and brings bad news to both. What does happen is an experienced scum gets a newbie's back by subtly suggesting the town look in other directions. When monkey was leading in votes on page 22, I was in second place. armlx came after me, then shortly after monkey makes the rather bizairre anouncement that he (and by extension, we) should choose the scummier of lowell and magis to lynch. It looks a lot like he was trying to set up a future vote for me, in support of armlx & co., after looking like he'd carefully considered the options.

So, because monkey agreed with me, its buddying and not just deflection on his part?

And you definitely have things backwards on the scum usually bus inexperienced team mates less.

[armlx]

I disagree. Newbie scum sometimes get mad and flip out, getting themselves and their partner killed. Not usually worth the risk.

So, what you are saying is that because of the off chance someone flips, outs a scum partner, and the game gets called off and that person banned, experienced scum don't have reason to bus a newbie scum who is liable to slip up over the course of the game in a non-purposeful way and possibly screw them?

[armlx]

I have an idea, let's all ask shanba what to do.

I like the way you think.

[armlx]

You've also expressed suspicion of Light-kun, but said very little about it aside from agreeing with CF Riot. Please elaborate.

His posts seem very conveniently positioned is all. Sorta like wagoning, but not really.

And as for MP, I'm not sure I have enough info form other players alignments to determine his (basically, no fucking clue, and odds are I won't for a while unless we vig him). All I know is I'm pretty sure he is lying about his role, and I'm not even sure that's a tell for him.

[armlx]

He's homo sapiens, there has to be some way of predicting what he does or will do.

And my prediction is that he will play in a manner that is utterly unhelpful and has no correlation to his alignment while making absurd fake role claims.

[armlx]

and the monkeyman-KoC thing: if there are 2 different scumgroups, he could still be scum.

Just realized this.

There is reason to doubt there being 2 scum groups in the fact that Monkey was revealed as "Mafia RB" not "Mafia A RB". While the later only implies there are, the former almost assuredly proves there aren't.

[armlx]

I thought a SK would be a little unfair, being on his own, against a big number from the mafia. That's why I thought the kills should have been made by vig's and mafia. Two of the kills were antitown, one protown.

No, SK's are standard, and its just understood the SK isn't winning 1/3 games or whatever.

[armlx]

The only example you gave so far was him giving a fake role claim as scum. Does he have a history of faking role claims as town?

Never seen him as town.

I could just be a strong town player who is pretty strong at conceiving which side of an argument scum would be on and what type of vantage points a true town aligned person would make.

Uh.... no, that's not even close to my point.

And honestly, can we get more Lowell lynch.

[armlx]

Mod, why am I not still voting Lowell

I've seen nothing to change my mind from the case I made forever ago. LK's townie claim when he did was disconcerting, but that's about it.

[armlx]

Why must all of your posts focus so narrowly on one person

He's fucking obv scum and there is no wagon on him.

[armlx]

Okay then let's pretend I have scumbuddies who you ALSO want to find. Who are they?

LK is the most likely, but seriously, why is your defense a deflection?

[armlx]

Give me something to defend and I'll do my best.

I have. All game. I've noted a consistent pattern between Crime in Cressario and here. Prove to me that this pattern extends beyond you being scum, as well as how your votes here were not in the least bit opportunistic with respect to monkeyman and Mafiaplayer.

[armlx]

You want me to disprove a meta comparison to another game? What does that even mean?

Show examples of where you played this way as town just like I said in my last post. Stop dancing around arguments just because you think you can discredit them by making them look irrelevant.

I'm no longer voting for MP (I've stated why), and I've explained my lack of vote on monkeyman. More please.

Look back at how your votes tracked those wagons strengths. Its called wagoning BTW thx.

[armlx]

LK, link plz.

[armlx]

armlx, metas are pointless.

Sigh, I'm not going to even bother to argue this with people any more other then to say you are blatantly wrong, most likely because you aren't actually able to properly interpret what is and isn't a meta tell.

[armlx]

I'm still seeing the pattern more between CiC and this much more then Open 79.

[armlx]

Unimpressed. The note Vi made about LK relative to that game is relevant as well.

[armlx]

I think I do have two modes. Happy games, and unhappy games. This is without doubt the latter. I just can't get any footing (because of a few overanxious attackers) and am being penalized for it.

Honestly, I could draw more parallels between that Open game and elemental then anything else. You have 2 modes of game, town and scum.

[armlx]

If you're not scum I'm very disappointed in your play thusfar. It's unlike you to be so narrow-minded. You need to step back and look around at all players and you'll see I'm far more scummy than many others.

Fixed.

Votecount:
Lowell - 5 (armlx, Knight of Cydonia, Shanba, Azrael001, kuribo)
Mafiaplayer - 4 (Yosarian2, mykonian, Light-kun, CF Riot)
Light-kun - 2 (Vi, popsofctown)
kuribo - 1 (Lowell)
Not voting: Alabaska J, The Central Scrutinizer, Sun Tzu, BridgesAndBaloons, Mafiaplayer

With 17 alive, it's 9 to lynch.

[armlx]

This may be relevant in supporting a case, but you cannot make a case itself on this fact alone. There must be indicators (even if you need to use meta to do this) of their scum-like play.

Uhh, what I did was use meta to show his play is like his play as scum. That's all any tell is......

[armlx]

Mykonian, what you don't realize is that "normal" scum tells are actually based in a large scale metagame.

[armlx]

what the problem is, is that with the posts lowell makes, he is quite unreadable, that was what I meant. So nothing but meta-arguments make sense.

I mean, there are a lot of things that are scummy outside his meta too. At the least, the pattern of his behavior towards MM suggests a bus, not to mention his other wagoning tendencies.

[armlx]

I'm willing to jump ship. If for no other reason than I respect the people voting for him...

unvote, vote monkey

God, this is almost as high as PYP3 on the funniest mafia lies ever.

[armlx]

wagoning is not normal lowell behaviour?

depends on the level of opportunism.

[armlx]

Actually, no armlx. Some standard tells were derived directly from Bayes theorem (that rule that scum are more likely to do things that satisfy scum win condition more than town win condition) Then they were confirmed by in-game experienced. But I'm pretty sure some first guy said: hey, it satisfies the scum win condition to vote town than it does to vote scums, so maybe that guy hammering townies is mafia.

No, either

A) scum did them more often as they were advantageous and they became the meta trend for scum

or

B) People realized they were pro-scum actions, and created a preemptive meta based on hypotheses rather then experience.

(This is probably completely irrelevant to the actual game, just making a point)

I believe after he claimed I backed off, IIRC. Not that this matters.

Correct, it doesn't matter, at that is not at all what you have been trying to defend yourself as doing.

[armlx]

Okay but if the critique is "Lowell bussed his partner" and I didn't end up voting for that person, it is important inasmuch as that's what I'm being accused of and therefore am defending myself from. What's the rest of your case?

Clear bus on MM, wagon vote on yesterday's lynch, the complete about face from MP is sure town to voting him on "even odds" then abandoning and accusing others of using the MP wagon as a "convenient excuse" when that's exactly what you did, the complete parallel between guy0 and Azrael in CiC and here, your OMGUS on Kuribo, and lastly the way you have tried to dismiss the net of my contents without actually countering any arguments while lying about your MM vote.

[armlx]

None of them, however, are by nature "scummy."

I strongly disagree.

The bus, as I said, doesn't work if (a) I don't end up voting him and (b) he's not lynched

It DOES. You bussed him, then when he came up with a reliable claim the value of bussing him dropped as his odds of living sky rocketed so you unvoted. I have seen and done that a ton.

MP I've been unsure of, I'll admit, but I'm not the only one.

Your first post about him was based on the info everyone was accusing him of later. Nothing changed but the fact a wagon formed.

Parallels between two different players in two different games are meaningless.

No, not at all. Newb A is suspected, player B defends newb A, newb A flips town. While Az hasn't flipped yet, you can see the pattern. Again, as with my meta points before, point to where you did this as town.

My OMGUS vote is becuase I think you and kuribo are lazy as hell in your tunnel-vision, him with less reason than you.

He had less reason but he still had it.

Votecount:
Lowell - 5 (armlx, Knight of Cydonia, Shanba, Azrael001, kuribo)
Mafiaplayer - 3 (Yosarian2, mykonian, CF Riot)
Light-kun - 2 (Vi, popsofctown)
kuribo - 1 (Lowell)
armlx - 1 (Light-kun)
Not voting: Alabaska J, The Central Scrutinizer, Sun Tzu, BridgesAndBaloons, Mafiaplayer

With 17 alive, it's 9 to lynch.

[armlx]

You never saw him do this as town? From the beginning I heard this was typical Lowell behaviour.

Not that, the whole sparse posting thing is.

[armlx]

Hm... To me, this reasoning is meaningless without Az flipping town. However, if Az flipped scum, would that not also make Lowell scum?

It would invalidate the tell as I am using it. However, I don't really suspect Azrael to be scum at this point.

[armlx]

I like how Lowell is now trying to lean away from an MP lynch.

Honestly, I'll vote LK if I can't get a Lowell lynch, mainly from the chainsawing.

Lol at MP's vote.

[armlx]

Let me ask this, do you think the Town or the Vig has a better chance of hitting scum?

Oooh oooh I know the answer. Not sure why its relevant.

[armlx]

The town can find scum better than the vig can.

Actually, this only applies to D2 and after, the vig is actually more likely to hit scum shooting blind N0 in a large normal then the town is to hit D1. I did the stats over a year or so and the town was like 10% below random on D1 lynches in large normals.

Also, this largely depends on who the vig is. Really, I don't understand the point of the original question.

[armlx]

I think the chance of hitting scum in a MP lynch is higher.

Why?

[armlx]

(shrug) He's generally acted scummier. His claim is unlikely. Multiple people seem to keep trying to derail his wagon for bad reasons.

Lets say it was Rosso in the place of MP and IDK, xyzzy instead of Lowell. Any difference.

Votecount:
Lowell - 8 (armlx, Shanba, Azrael001, kuribo, popsofctown, mykonian, CF Riot, Knight of Cydonia)
Mafiaplayer - 2 (Yosarian2, Vi)
kuribo - 1 (Lowell)
CF Riot - 1 (Mafiaplayer)
Not voting: Alabaska J, The Central Scrutinizer, Sun Tzu, BridgesAndBaloons, Light-kun

With 17 alive, it's 9 to lynch.

[armlx]

I was trying to put it in terms of similar players who you may have a better meta sense of? I dunno.

If you don't think it's at least fairly likely MP is scum, then you're "let's vig MP" mantra would be incredibly scummy, armlx.

Its probably slightly above random. However why is a policy vig here scummy?

[armlx]

I have good reason to think he's lying about his claim based on his past play. I've explained this before at least once. I don't think this has much to do with his alignment and more to do with him being a donk.

[armlx]

Will you guys finally see how ridiculously scummy this player is?? He wants to vig someone who's scumminess is "slightly above random".

Who is also utterly useless and more or less unreadable. I'd vig him at any point of the game barring him replacing in late game where we have to hit scum and have better suspects.

[armlx]

Anyway, yes you did, but your explination was "I saw him lying once about his role when he was scum". That was apparently your entire meta on him. And from that, you apparently draw the conclusion that he's apparetnly lying about his role but pro-town anyway? That seems like the least likely possibility; "Lying scum", "Town telling the truth", and "Scum telling a partial truth" all seem far more likely then "lying vanillia townie trying to get attention by claiming to be a roleblocker", and yet it sounds like that's the theory you're pushing. I don't get it, and frankly it maeks me wonder if you've got some inside information.

I understand how I've only seen the scum play, but what I've seen of him in general is so fucking dumb I wouldn't put it past him to lie as scum.

So how exactly is "lied as scum" a meta? You lied as scum. mith lied as scum. Every person on the whole goddamn site lied as scum.

Yeah, but they don't claim killer cop with an already claimed killer cop out of the blue.....

[armlx]

Shanba wins for that last post, LK fails for asking me a question that I've been answering for probably 20 pages.

[armlx]

Oh, and assuming Lowell is actually at L-1, claim and/or die etc etc.

[armlx]

Meh, the lack of claim is beyond convincing (albeit after the fact I guess?)

[armlx]

Yeah, we have to do this today. Only reasonable reasons are he is mafia god father or unNKable SK.

Vote MP

[armlx]

Or there is no vig, or vig was roleblocked, or there was a mafia doctor, or there was a re-director, or vig forgot to send his night choice in, or vig just didn't agree, or...

1 is unlikely due to kill math, 2 is possible but also unlikely, 3 is also unlikely, 4 is unlikely given the number of kills, 5 is unlikely, 6 is VERY unlikely.

[armlx]

Alabaska, mind elaborating what about Myko being vig would have made you think i was scummy?

[armlx]

I also said that town killing likely mafia is better than a vig shoot. *CoughArmlxscumcough*

This is completely unconnected. To anything.

[armlx]

What is the argument for not lynching MP today after a vig kill on him presumably failed?

[armlx]

I don't like basing a case on guessing what the mod would do,

Phate is a IRC player mainly. You can assume what his tendencies are.

[armlx]

So LK's list is

MP
3x OMGUS.

Seems close.