NY 213 - Game Over!
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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Tchill claims Universalbackup who joined the neighborhood from Performer's role.
Wave claims 2-shot Friendly Neighbor IN A NEIGHBORHOOD which used to include Performer.
Wave says he sent a PM to Tchill confirming his role (n1?)
And then a PM to Gamma confirming his role (n2?)
In this sense, Gamma being TOWN confirms both wave and Tchill.vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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Right, how does Wheme flip universal backup when Performer had died?
Wait... uhhh.... does that... confirm... Tchill... as scum.......?
Uhghghufghghga
Is Universal Backup confirmed to only backup roles on YOUR SIDE or does it go for either side? If it's either side, then what happens if a scum team has two universal backs?
If Tchill got Performer's role, then that would mechanically explain why Wheme flipped Universal Backup when a power role had already died. If Universal Backups go to the first PR that dies on either side. I guess?
I might just really be not used to these mechanics tho.vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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That doesn't remove the possibility of a Gamma+Wave+Tchill three-man team. I mean, I know that's very unlikely, since there's a good chance we just straight up policy Gamma to have masons if this starts going down in numbers. But it does also mean that if Tchill gets nightkilled it confirms Wave (even if Gamma is scum), and if Wave gets nightkilled it confirms Tchill. Scum basically have to start dealing with that, so we almost certainly have no need to policy Gamma today.In post 6575, Kublai Khan wrote:
No.... ? Just a confirmation of getting a mod PM and a ok that the paraphrasing sounds good.In post 6571, Krazy wrote:So a green gamma flip at any point gives us a pair of masons.
(We can still lynch Gamma, though, if we decide he bussed yesterday)
GR still seems like a solid lynch for today.vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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I just kind of don't get why Ausuka would not confirm two confirmed players. Like, isn't that the whole point of the IC in this setup? I'm not really questioning your play here, I'm trying to reconcile Ausuka's play to the described events. It's a lot to take in dude.
This is probably all true, because town misplaying can happen and this seems way too risky to be a scum play, it's just... trying to make sense of what I'm looking at lol
Basically if Ausuka HAD crumbed, then holy shit, free masons without the need for a Gamma flip. Seems like a pretty big oversight on her part really.vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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Didn't you do this same thing with your reads list?In post 6661, Golden Robster wrote:
?In post 6600, Tchill13 wrote:I locktowned GR. So he's probably a fine lynch.
I think the joke is self-evident if you think back to how you felt lolvote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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You could be right. A large part of my confidence in JJD going into today had to deal with my confidence in Tchill being scum. I had no need to re-evaluate my TR of JJD because I had a full scum team just sitting there: Tchill, GR, and then either wave, KK, or deepscum.
JJD being scum would fit with Dunn being always fucking right about everything though. And texcat was also... weird? toward JJD, which I mostly attributed to texcat being scum. But if texcat literally never bussed anyone, then JJD flips scum before GR. Guess it depends on whether you think texcat literally played on the assumption she never, ever gets flipped.
But it also has to involve what you prioritize more, townslips or scumslips. I feel like JJD has been townslipping all over this game, that he's not posting now mostly because of real life but probably also because of tilt over being wrong on texcat. You do realize that not posting after being THAT WRONG is literally NAI right? Particularly for a powergamer like JJD.
My problem with JJD being town at this point has a lot more to do with numbers. With wave and Tchill now both likely conftown, I really don't have a lot of room for scumteam that doesn't include JJD. So, numbers suggest at this point that I can easily be wrong in my read. But I still think JJD flips town before GR does. And I still think GR flips scum before JJD does.
But... at this point, I honestly wouldn't put money on JJD flipping one way or the other. Tchill's roleclaim has rocked my read of the gamestate pretty hard.vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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I like what you're doing. But your argument is that GR is town because of her AtE. Look at how close we are to a solve here. The biggest nulls and leanscums just flipped conftown. The scum powergamer probably gets flipped today or tomorrow, or maybe even two scum lynches in a row if it's JJD+GR. And you think scum doesn't just throw in the towel here? Like, they're looking at this race, and they don't see a win here. GR's self-vote is highly indicative of scum that knows they have lost.vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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K guess that came off as douchey but it was kinda meant to be a joke. Looking at it now I can see it doesn't read that way tho. I wasn't trying to downplay you.
I feel like you're feeling defensive but you did literally just say you were confident in your reads after saying GR was likely town for reasons that don't make sense to me. "Good analysis but I disagree with some of your conclusions" --> "I like what you're doing. But..."vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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In post 6827, Tchill13 wrote:
Ooh... JJD probably is scum.In post 6796, JarJarDrinks wrote:I get it now.
What a shitty setup w/ masons, IC, Neigborizer...
why play mafia when you can just modconfirm half the town?
Even as probably modconfirmed town, you still look at a post and see scum and I look at a post and see town.
JJD: "I can get lynched and the game is still almost certainly won. Boring."
Town: Oh yeah, this is scum.
GR: "Self-vote AtE, OMGUS, V/LA."
Town: Oh yeah this is town.
Spoiler:vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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In his wheme vote post hes basically saying that pp is likely town because ram's self vote was possibly town indicative. If I understand it. Honestly I have reread that post more than any other in this game trying to decide if its alignment indicative and I honestly still don't know.
Does the wheme vote look like it could be a bus to you?vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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Looks like everyone has decided JJD is going down and that I should probably stop defending him because even he thinks it's suspicious.
Guess I should give up then.
LOL FUCK THAT
TIME TO DOUBLE DOWN
JarJarDrinks
Spoiler:
Summary:
JJD remains town because JJD has been probable town since 2580.
If JJD is scum, he is a very greedy and reckless scum player. While possible for a scum powergamer, I find it unlikely.
JJD plays sub-optimally as town in such a way that it leads to more town information. The push for multiple claims in quick succession is meant to foster the town processing more information more quickly. In principle it is not unlike Creature playing musical chairs.
JJD's reactions today look like town trying to make sense of a confusing game state and not necessarily interested in pushing on the player that has spent the whole game townblocking herself to him.
Additional thoughts (not from quotes above):
JJD has been aggressively wrong in reads for mislynches, like in his case on Dunn. I feel like this is town-indicative.
Golden Robster
Spoiler:
Summary:
I feel like for GR there is little evidence she is town because she is not town.
I feel like GR has been largely passive, and maintained a strategy this game of trying to townblock herself with JJD.
Other thoughts (not from quotes here):
I encourage you to look not just at Wheme and Texcat, but at how GR vs JJD pursued the case on Dunn.
JJD pushed very hard on Dunn because he believed he was likely to be scum and wanted credit for the lynch.
GR's push was significantly lighter, which seems more like someone interested in looking good than in someone pursuing a lead. GR on Dunn was scum posturing while setting up a mislynch.
Annotated Associations with Texcat
Spoiler:
Summary Comments:
There is way too much content here considering how little content there is from texcat overall. I feel like it is unlikely so much of texcat's iso would be directed exclusively at two of her scumbuddies. This is why I think it's important to get today's lynch correctly. I think it is unlikely both are scum, even if it is possible.
Compare the amount of interaction here to that with KK. (Who I'm starting to warm on the idea of being a buddy).
Annotated Associations with Whemestar
Spoiler:
Summary Comments:
Wheme has far too many interactions with JJD for JJD to be a likely scumbuddy. The interactions generally feel like SvT.
Wheme has fluff posts with GR and incoherent reactions to GR. Feels more like S+S to me.
Overall Summary:
Based on texcat iso, I find it most likely that there is only one scum between GR + JJD.
Based on isos of Texcat, Wheme, JJD, and GR, I feel like there is a lot more evidence that GR is scum than JJD.
I feel like JJD looks like town based on his iso.
Therefore I feel like GR is the best lynch for today.
Thank you for your time.vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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Good questions. But if you are town then there were 0 scum off the wagon which sounds like bs to me.In post 6888, Golden Robster wrote:How have I been passive and why does townblocking with JJD make me scum?
phone posting right now since no access to com
Why wouldn't you hard defend? You yourself explained how you were in a position of power. In any case "why would scum hard defend" is wifom. What makes no sense is why you spent half the dayphase questioning and throwing shade at texcat but then suddenly hard defended. I think the hard defense on its own is NAI but the incoherence of your position on tex is scummy. I also think it was weird that for as hard as your defense was you never said tex was town. Like you look at tbg or ank on dunn and theyre like dont lynch this its town. So your hard defense wasnt a hard defense even. It was scummy misdirection and inconsistent with your positions this game.vote conspiracy-
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Pretty sure GR's play here is to discredit Ank as much as she can before she goes down.In post 6941, Golden Robster wrote:vanilla
still don’t have com access and I’m not typing large paragraphs on phone because effort
basically repeating what I’ve said earlier
lynch JJD then KK and consolidate under Anka since she’s my strongest TR
Like, no one else looked at this and saw GR basically trying to pull all the same shit Wheme did when he was going down? Wheme was "town town town" on everyone he wanted mislynched on future days.
Look at GR over this day. She wants to sheep anyone on any wagon. She is trying to muddy the waters as much as possible.
This is scum!GR fam. Let's seal the deal here.vote conspiracy-
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In post 3052, WhemeStar wrote:
Town town townnIn post 3050, Kublai Khan wrote:
Read on Creature?In post 3048, WhemeStar wrote:I wish someone would talk to me when I’m “ caught up” and not 20000 pages behind
(this is @TBG)In post 3250, WhemeStar wrote:Holy some1 has a brain
In post 3268, WhemeStar wrote:JarJar is prob scum
As soon as Wheme was put up he basically started spewing a bunch of bullshit to make it harder to get associative tells out of his slot. GR is basically doing the same thing today, it's just lasted longer and GR is slightly better at it.In post 3417, WhemeStar wrote:Can someone explain gammas votevote conspiracy-
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For reference, here are some of the ways GR had been approaching the game at different points:
Here are some things GR has said today that struck me as out of character:In post 6377, Golden Robster wrote:D5 reads
Conf town: Hopkirk
Town: KK, JJD,
Leaning Town: Tchill, Krazy
Semi-Leaning Town: Texcat (dead), Wavemode, Mylo
Null/Undecided: Vax
Semi-Leaning Scum: Creature, Gamma, Skygazer, Anka
Leaning Scum: SS (dead), TBG
Scum:
flip these reads
Conf town: Hopkirk
Town:
Leaning Town: SS (dead), TBG
Semi-leaning town: Creature, Gamma, Skygazer, Anka
Null/undecided: Vax
Semi-leaning scum: Wavemode, Mylo
Leaning scum: Tchill, Krazy
Scum: KK, JJD
In post 6404, Golden Robster wrote:VOTE: tchill
@krazy you're analysis is fine; I agree that we should be focusing on these three players including myself and KK here
it makes the most logical sense to look at the players who hard-defended texcat (including me)In post 6778, Golden Robster wrote:@ankamius
just to add on thatmylo should also be town by interactions with texcatIn post 6986, Golden Robster wrote:andI agree with wavemode here; if gamma was scum then it would make more sense to NK wavemode instead of leaving him alive and risk letting more players know he's conf!town
pedit: I know anka and I agree with that; if it gets to that stage then town should be re-evaluating everybody including townblockIn post 6988, Golden Robster wrote:Confirmed Town - [Hopkirk, Wavemode, Tchill]
Town Block - [Ankamius, Mylo, TBG]
Probably not mafia - [Creature, Krazy, Gamma]
Potential lynches - [Skygazer, Vaxkiller, KK, JJD]
GR has spent pretty much all of today emphatically agreeing with people she has never agreed with before. She's throwing out townreads she has never supported before and sheeping votes on people who only barely trusted before. Before today Ank was a semi-lean scum and now she's agreeing with everything you're saying. I've spent the entire game accusing her of being scum and as soon as I vote tchill she sheeps my vote.
As nice as it is to have someone say they agree with your reasoning, GR is basically making the priority today totally fucking up the associative reads of her slot, not actually scumhunting.vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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Wait guys, I found some shocking evidence that Gamma is actually town!
viewtopic.php?p=10356451#p10356451vote conspiracy-
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Here's where I am at the end of this dayphase. To be clear, the greens aren't really towncases (wave should ignore everything above JJD if he wants to avoid the 'signal to noise ratio'), they're just my current feelings. There's some observations for pink and below. JJD and GR are about the same here as in my post earlier. Mostly I wanted to share because I had fun putting it together
TEXCAT -- KIA
Spoiler:
Conftown -- Krazy POV
Krazy
Spoiler:
Note: Obviously not conftown for anyone else, since they didn't get my role PM.
Hopkirk
Spoiler:
Likely Conftown (Conditional on single flip)
Tchill13
Spoiler:
Wavemode
Spoiler:
Close to Locktown
TehBrawlGuy
Spoiler:
Likely Town -- Not in any particular order
Creature
Spoiler:
Myloninja AKA Hiloninja AKA MYLON
Spoiler:
Ankamius
Spoiler:
Skygazer
Spoiler:
Notes: I think wave's TC here on Dave is much more convincing than wave's TC on Gamma's slot.
Complicated and Conditional Townread
JarJarDrinks
Spoiler:
Null
Vaxkiller
Spoiler:
Leanscum
Kublai Khan
Spoiler:
Scumread
Gamma Emerald
Spoiler:
Note: Wave's TC here involves Gamma being incisive and aggressive, which seems simply untenable if you look at the duration between votes and the nature of the pushes.
Golden Robster
Spoiler:vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
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OK, no time travel jokes today.
Anyway, something I noticed during the weekend:
So, what I think is really interesting here is that wave has not claimed Friendly Neighbor at this point, no one has said anything about that, but KK assumes that wave can confirm himself to multiple people. Like this struck me as a weird assumption at the time, and looking back at it, it kinda strikes me as a slip. PARTICULARLY when you consider this post later:In post 6460, Kublai Khan wrote:
He was in a neighborhood that included an Innocent Child and he didn't tell them that he could confirm himself to others?In post 6458, Tchill13 wrote:
yeah he's probably gonna fucking hate me.In post 6456, Kublai Khan wrote:
He already hardclaimed Vanilla Neighbor many times.In post 6441, Tchill13 wrote:I forget the name of the role. He can let ppl know he's town through his night action.
This isn't totally adding up.
Why are you so convinced? Who else did wavemode confirm himself to?
In post 6521, Kublai Khan wrote:Oh, I see. If Gamma Emerald doesn't flip neighbor, that confirms that both Tchill13 and wavemode are scum?
So in 6460 KK assumes there is a Friendly Neighbor mechanic involved, so he MUST understand how the mechanic works. But then by 6521 he seems to confuse the Friendly Neighbor ability with the Neighborizor ability.
I think KK slipped and forgot he wasn't supposed to know about Friendly Neighbor and then tried to backtrack by pretending to be confused over the roles.
Vote KKvote conspiracy-
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I mean Dave certainly made it seem like he was sincere. This is his post from this game.
Dave was lynched in Fallout on the 20th.
His replaceout from this game was on the 29th.
He was also playing in Project Pinecone, which is an ongoing game in which his slot has not flipped. He was also under pressure in that game, soyour objection that there may have been other factors is sustained. It's reasonable to want other reasons for Sky to be town than simply Dave's replaceout.
Can you explain why you think Sky is suspicious? I'm not sure I understand your case atm.vote conspiracy-
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Well the problem with Sky being scum is that it would require 2/3 of KK, GR, and Vax to be town, and at the moment I don't think that's terribly likely.
Beyond that, Sky's play has been slightly townier than her predecessors. I'm also not sure that Frozen Angel does so much word vomit in a low activity game state as scum close to deadline. While Dave's replaceout has wifom I still think it's more likely to be towntilt than scumtilt, and Lovebird had nothing. So I end up with three townleans and a null out of the four people who played the slot, which is a lot townier than any of the other three candidates we have left.
This doesn't really look like scum replacing in to me at a glance:
In post 4563, Skygazer wrote:
(For the townreads on the wagon:)In post 4555, Vaxkiller wrote:
Uhhh can you outline your town reads?In post 4499, Skygazer wrote:Based on the sheer number of my townreads on the lalendra wagon I'll likely end up there
Hopkirk/Ausuka are confirmed
PP - main counterwagon to wheme
JJD - pushed wheme heavily/consistently
Tchill - like their presence in the past pages
Wave - don't have an opinion of this slot but if Ausuka isn't voting him it's good enough for me for now
Creature - apparently town for a lot of people through meta lately? I'm kind of fuzzy on the deets. Not convinced they're scum w wheme looking at the shenanigans at the end of D2, seemed kind of too blatant for scum?
It's kind of hard to form solid reads this early on into my replacement because I haven't had any interactions but this is good enough for me to sheep for nowIn post 4888, Skygazer wrote:Guys, texcat's progression onto dunn is pretty sus, he goes from townreading to suddenly scumreading for a single reason (4315), laid pretty low for most of his wagon, and then hopping on with the naked vote right when the Dunn wagon actually starts to pick up (4819) while his wagon is dying down.
VOTE: texcat
(Sorry for not really participating, I'm going to actively try to change that. I'm technically caught up but just feel so far behind and I kind of feel super out of my element considering I'm one of the newest people here and probably one of the worst scum hunters here. I'll actively work to change my activity levels)vote conspiracy-
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@Ank on GR, I disagree. KK had to decide which bus made him look less scummy and he couldn't decide. His unwillingness to commit earlier to one of the wagons and the incoherence of his position suggests he was faced with two bad options and was trying to decide which slot had a better chance in endgame. GR was off-wagon so was the better bus yesterday, lynching Gamma would have sacrificed the value they thought Gamma had gained in the Texcat bus the day before.
Scum DID choose another target. THEY WANTED VAX. Remember? But everyone just ignored the scum-driven wagon and made both leading wagons yesterday on scum.vote conspiracy-
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BTW, this "hail mary wagon" is objectively wrong in not one but two different ways LOLIn post 7149, Ankamius wrote:GR is town
They were the hail mary wagon for scum when there was an opening to save Gamma
If GR was also scum, either another target would've been chosen to try to wagon or scum would've just let Gamma die (unlikely the latter since I don't think scum would've predicted I'd dig in my heels on that lynch like I did)
First, GR PREDATES the Gamma wagon by FIVE DAYS. Gamma was a very late wagon.
Second, the counter-wagonS to GR were BOTH JJD AND Vax. JJD was of course townled but also supported by scum!GR
GR was flailing yesterday, and KK was sitting out hoping someone would bite on Vax.
End of day KK had to choose between which buddy to bus, and he chose the slot he thought was more likely to go down since the votes on GR had not changed over the entire daycycle, whereas Gamma had more movement overall (in addition to Gamma having been a texcat busser so having more potential town equity)vote conspiracy-
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- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
You know, at this point, I could see this as being true even if you were scum is the funny part. I feel like the scum game basically fell apart with Tchill's claim.In post 7166, Kublai Khan wrote:Oh, I hope town wins.
But I can't survive until them. I'm too much of a distraction.
Like, I look at this:
And I see scum that is pissed he was outvoted in the scum PT on the nightkills and is now wagging his finger at his teammates and saying "If you'd listened to me, we wouldn't be in this mess!"In post 7156, Kublai Khan wrote:I'm here. I'm a VT and I know you guys are going to lynch me anyways. With school starting up, I haven't had time to properly play and right now the only defense I can offer is that if I were scum, there's no way that Hopkirk or wavemode would still be alive.
Anyway it seems like the only thing we're waiting on is Ank finishing her daily analysis, but I see no reason for us to do another deadline lynch for this dayphase.vote conspiracy-
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011
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Krazy Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 7079
- Joined: January 28, 2011