Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[shaft.ed]

The choices were obvious.

If the choices are obvious your reason was irrelevant.

[shaft.ed]

Sure why not? How about your plan to have the investigative roles "coordinate" their actions by communicating their targets through you?

[shaft.ed]

CES how's it hangin?

[shaft.ed]

cic, Yvonne targeted the Fonz who no one targeted. I targeted Adele.

[shaft.ed]

OK I'm reading and pondering. I will cast a vote today. After skimming this page Fonz is absolutely correct about "easy" lynches. Also note with 3 scum and 5 to lynch most mislynches will be on the easy side for scum.

[shaft.ed]

Seol could we please get votecounts. We haven't had one all day. And I always find players posting them as a scum tell. I don't want to have to deal with that urge because we aren't get any mod provided VC's.

Thanks

[shaft.ed]

Pretty much. To be honest I had a very specific reason for obtaining a specific answer from you and I've completely blanked as to why that was. I really need to start writing these things down.

[shaft.ed]

OK I'm not at all seeing this "Yvonne was an easy lynch and cicero came to her rescue" line of reasoning. I just skimmed early D3 and Yvonne wasn't anywhere near being lynched. She at one time had 3 votes on here which were all pressure votes to get her to claim. Interestingly enough the third vote was from cicero himself. There was very little if any case being built against her outside of the lack of willingness to claim. Would someone please explain to me where this idea originated and why it's being perpetuated?

[shaft.ed]

Yvonne, you stated you were concerned about catching myself and DGB in a lie, why not the Fonz?

[shaft.ed]

Thought of the moment. Yvonne is not likely scum. The only part of the case against her I find compelling is the hesitance to claim. The reason that this is scummy is because if she made the kill she has to make something up. Claiming on the Fonz is not a safe claim for a false watcher to make because he is one of three plausible targets for me. Yvonne already knew I hadn't targeted her so it was a 50/50 shot that I hit the Fonz but she was correct. Only way this works is if me or Fonz is scum to notify her of whether or not he was targeted. If she were the killer logical fake claim was that she targeted Adele.

Fonz's recent vote against the CKD wagon for Yvonne really doesn't seem like a neccassary place to bus a scum buddy so I don't think they are a pair.

Thus I think Yvonne is town.

[shaft.ed]

I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?

[shaft.ed]

I expect town players to push plans which benefit town, and scum players to push plans which benefit scum, more often than not.

Actually I find the reverse to be true. Scum are generally much more careful about putting forth a plan. I've seen numerous instances of townies "throwing ideas out there" and getting jumped on because of it.

Except that your 'CKD, why did you jail Adele' post makes it pretty obvious that you targetted Adele (because cicero's recruitment failing could have been explained by either of him and adele being jailed, but you immediately accused CKD of jailing Adele).

I've already stated I had no confirmation that Adele was blocked. I made this statement after cirero said he couldn't talk to Adele. I didn't think cicero could have been jailed because I was able to chat freely with him at night. Therefore my knowledge of Adele's jailing was purely from my interactions with cicero and had no bearing of my targeting Adele.

[shaft.ed]

Cic I realize that now, but I didn't at the time of my earlier post asking why Adele was jailed.

[shaft.ed]

DGB your case was based largely on Mathcam ties.

Also meta Yvonne. She rarely votes, it's not really a useful tell in regards to her play re the Gorgon lynch.

Finally look at what she did with her early claim. If she was lying did she take a non-risky way out? Would it make sense for her to fabricate targeting The Fonz in her position with me, you and the Fonz left to claim?

[shaft.ed]

Well if you do want to go back to the shooter analysis CKD, and Adele are already not the shooter. I'll tell you I'm not but that's up to you to believe. In my defense I would argue that it is patently obvious if I don't target one of the three useful power roles so I'd have to be CKD aligned to know to target Adele. I don't think Yvonne is per my last argument. I'm not sure about cicero but CKD would have to be his partner if he were the shooter so it's pretty unlikely.

That leaves DGB, Fonz, CES. I do think my vote will land here for the day.

[shaft.ed]

Would it make sense for her to fabricate targeting The Fonz in her position with me, you and the Fonz left to claim?

I don't get that part. I need TSQ to explain it to me.

Here let me use the voice of TSQ:

-Being a motivator I have to target either Yvonne, Adele, or The Fonz else I will be assuradely lynched.
-I was claiming after Yvonne thus Yvonne didn't know who I targeted but knew I didn't target her so I would have landed on Adele or The Fonz.
-Since she doesn't know that (unless Fonz or I am scum with her) she's taking a 50/50 gamble on being caught in a lie by claiming to target the Fonz.
-If she claims Adele she is perfectly safe.

Note that the TSQ didn't actually write the above statement this activity was purely for DGB's benefit.

[shaft.ed]

Ciciero, very a good point. The only player after D1 that knew they were going last, if at all, was The Fonz not Yvonne. Quite the interesting looking back at the push to make Yvonne claim first.

Could she have gotten lucky? Fifty percent lucky.

That's my whole point she didn't have to get fifty percent lucky. Anyone else in the town and she doesn't have to worry about the motivator catching her in a 50/50 lie. Granted by targeting the Fonz she knows he can't catch her lying but he could have effectively targeted anyone in the town so it's better odds (1/7 vs 1/2) for her to pick a non-motivatory target with 100% odds of not getting caught by claiming on Adele.

[shaft.ed]

CKD any reason you're avoiding this thread?

[shaft.ed]

now, shafted...why did you feel the need to say I was avoiding the thread...when in fact I just dont have time to post something worthwhile?

I'm sorry that was bastardic of me. I just noticed you posting in our other game and was really wanting you to weigh in here because a lot is going on. Apologies.

[shaft.ed]

OK it occured to me that we hadn't discussed ZONEACE's death yesterday because of the glaring Gorgon issue. So I was pondering who may be driven to NK ZA.

1) Simplest Scenario is that Yvonne is scum and wanted to take out the only other investigative role last night. Killing ZA would be a non-issue outside of Doc protection since noone would be able to catch such a scum team in the act. However, as I've stated before I don't think Yvonne would have been likely to be so forward in passing her abilities to Adele. Thus Yvonnescum would have to be paird with Adele. And there is some very poor distancing on Yvonne's part to support such an idea. But I'm not really sure I get the Mathcam targeting in such an instance. If you can't be caught why not kill the Doctor or Jailkeeper who could really hinder your chances of winning.
Secondary pairing here would be CKD as Yvonne would have been OK sending powers to Adele if CKD could take her out of commission as was done yesterday. CKD's stating he would vote Yvonne but seeming reluctance to would support such a pairing.

2) Second scenario involves TSQ's D1 play. I get the feeling reading back on it that TSQ knew he wouldn't be able to get a ZA lynch. But he was very successful in casting doubt onto ZA. Thus he could have been simply setting him up for the NK, as lack of trust means lack of Doc protect, watcher targeting. Obviously this play would exclude Yvonne and possibly The Fonz. I would also posit that it excludes DGB since the Tracker is of no use against her power, the watcher would have made more sense. So possible pairing are reductive as Cicero, CKD and Adele. Unless CES is bus'ing CKD, which is entirely possible, I'd put the Cicero Adele pairing as more likely. I think this scenario fits better with the Mathcam N2 kill.

[shaft.ed]

I'd support a lynch on DGB

Forgive me if I missed it, but have you mentioned suspicions of DGB prior to this?

[shaft.ed]

Hmm I find it interesting that Adele's list contains the two popular bandwagons with the third most recent movement towards a lynch, and that DGB has been the next closest thing to a bandwagon we have had today. Will reread Adele to see if she was purposefully avoiding my question or if she has in fact cast suspicion on DGB prior.

[shaft.ed]

Sorry Adele that is not going to cut it. You haven't said a single word about DGB all day. Yet you claim that you always think she is scummy. WHy on earth would you want to lynch someone for which your scumdar doesn't work when you must lynch correctly? This makes no sense. Add in you flipping back and forth between Yvonne and CKD at the whim of the town today, your stating that since CKD is only at L-3 it's "safe" to vote for him, and your unexplained Gorgon hammer. I think you warrant a vote.

vote: Adele

[shaft.ed]

WHy on earth would you want to lynch someone for which your scumdar doesn't work when you must lynch correctly? This makes no sense.

Firstly, if you can't think of a reason, then you're not thinking hard enough. My scumdar doesn't work on DGb, but I wouldn't exclude lynching here today either.

Secondly, you're pretty much strawmanning here. She merely said she'd rather take a DGb lynch over a no lynch. She certainly hasn't been fighting to get DGb lynched.

I'm actually fairly sure Adele is town at this point.

I'm not strawmanning anything here.

Adele rather flippantly adds DGB to a list of people she is comfortable lynching today. She has not once expressed any concerns on DGB, yet all of the sudden she is suspicious, and this coincides with a point where DGB happens to have a couple votes on her.

And I didn't make my case clearly. My point wasn't that one shouldn't lycnh someone because they cannot read them. My point was that this was the ONLY reason that Adele provided though stating she could provide reasons if needed. This is really a weird statement to me.

[shaft.ed]

Adele. I read back over your original post a couple times and I do think I was interpretating in a more scummy way than it was written. I do still have a bad leaning for you but I would like to get back to my line of thought before this came up.

unvote

OK so before I postulated that last nights killer had to be one of CES, DGB, or The Fonz. Would the three of you be kind enough to comment on the other two players on this list?

[shaft.ed]

CKD you said you wanted to find the shooter. What do you think of my narrowing down to CES, DGB and Fonz?

[shaft.ed]

DGB please dont do this anymore. It also blocks Doc protects, in addition to watchings.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Also your desire to have an alibi over the possible harm your role could have done is decidely anti-town.

[shaft.ed]

No, shaft.ed. It's more likely she performed the kill if she's scum. Also, I'm unlikely to be protected.

Yes I need to pay more attention.

[shaft.ed]

No, shaft.ed. It's more likely she performed the kill if she's scum. Also, I'm unlikely to be protected.

Actually with a role like this on a scum team it would make most sense for BOTH DGB and the killer to target the victim. Only reason not to do this is if the other two scum have roles that should be used and can be verified: me, "Yvonne", CKD, "Adele", cicero, "Fonz" (quotations for nonverifiable roles that can be caught in a lie. This would also tie in perfectly with a ZA kill N1 as his absence makes the system much easier to manipulate.


Side note, anyone else getting an artificial argumentation vibe from Cicero and CKD?

[shaft.ed]

Wait NM. Thinking is tech. If DGB targets the victim, watcher gets "no result." That will still draw suspicion. Disregard previous rambling.

[shaft.ed]

Well if you saw it coming you must have known there were grounds for it

[shaft.ed]

I never thought I'd ever say that in a mafia game, but

anyone's guess is as good as mine.

Oh God there

is

no hope!

[shaft.ed]

Yeah I'm still not sure about this. The scum are taking a gamble if they do kill. Adele can possibly get motivation/healing powers that would help if a no kill occurs or we lynch correctly tommorow.

But getting a proper lynch in 4:3 isn't all that easy. Not that 5:3 is incredibly better. It just means one townie can be wrong.

I do have to say my suspicions are all over the place today. I really can't zero in on anyone. I do have a few groupings in mind, but all of them seem equally likely. But since I am working from groupings removing a single player from the game would potentially remove a group.

To sum, starting to like the idea better than before.

[shaft.ed]

And I think Shaft.ed motivating her will make that more likely to happen AND give her motivating powers for the next night (should we survive) thereby making town even stronger - and making it harder for her to lie.

[CKD impression] Are you tellin me what to do? No one tells me what to do![/CKD impression]

And most importantly I think we're about to shoot into the dark.

This is where I agree.

vote: No Lynch

[shaft.ed]

Yes claiming mechanism must be determined ahead. I do not want popcorn because there will be almost 50% scum if a kill occurs. I would prefer pure dice at the break of day.

[shaft.ed]

if it's popcorn based purely on dice I am fine with that.

[shaft.ed]

I vote pure dice, don't care how they are rolled.

[shaft.ed]

I will do what I feel I need to do, what I wont do is agree to anything so the mafia knows before the night.

Yeah my impression wasn't anything like this.

OK one thing I'd like to adjust. I move that we strike CES from the rolling list as he isn't likely to claim he targeted anyone and it will slow down the process come claim time.

[shaft.ed]

Adele with 3 scum of likely 4 people scum can easily rig the chain claim. Don't be dense.

It's not trusting to chance, it's trusting to not letting scum know anything about the claim order tommorow. If you can make a case that X is far scummier than anyone else we might have a reason to put that individual first, but I see no compelling reason to do so.

[shaft.ed]

I will do what I feel I need to do, what I wont do is agree to anything so the mafia knows before the night.

Yeah my impression wasn't anything like this.

OK one thing I'd like to adjust. I move that we strike CES from the rolling list as he isn't likely to claim he targeted anyone and it will slow down the process come claim time.

I dont follow the wisdom of this at all. Explain more plz.

The only way CES targeted anyone is if he killed them as scum. Do you think he's going to claim that? So in order to make the claims process in a faster order, so that scum cannot adjust accordingly, I would prefer not to have to wait for CES to say he didn't target anyone and then roll the dice.

[shaft.ed]

Not to mention scum would have 3 of the 4 votes needed to annoint the listmaker.

[shaft.ed]

is it bad that I only understand about 50% of what DGB says?

That's above average.

[shaft.ed]

so that I understand, usually you get 24 hours to chat after results are given. However, since I jailed adele, 24 hours was not needed, and the Mod started the game right after the Pm results. right?

Now, we could use Shafted here to verify this. Shafted, N1 were you given 24 hours to chat with Cicero after you joined his network? Did you know last night that Cicero received a "fail" when he tried to recruit Adele? If so, when last night? Did you know that Cicero was going to try to recruit Adele? Sorry if some of these questions are repeats.

This is just some information I would like out in the open today.

I got a PM from cicero about a day before D2 broke. It was over the weekend though so I wasn't around to respond. Cicero didn't tell me who he targeted last night, nor did I tell him.

[shaft.ed]

Fonz, while I agree with your "easy lynch" example, I don't think this game represents the extremes you are talking about. If we had targets today that were overtly scummy I think we would be picking between them and not having a large number of people pushing a No Lynch. And I would argue that CKD's jailing action was more scummy than Yvonne's suggestion of CKD's jailing action. So I don't think anyone is an "easy lynch" today.

[shaft.ed]

And he smells of peyote and loose women.

If only

[shaft.ed]

I assume that also means Cicero didnt tell you he recieved a fail last night.

No I didn't no he was a failure until today

[shaft.ed]

Not notified at all. I assume my role behaves with a oneway stream of information.

CKD, I have a bad feeling that you are somehow trying to figure out what your actions will do to other players' abilities to figure out what you have done during the course of the night.

[shaft.ed]

is it really a hammer when it's for No Lynch?

[shaft.ed]

is it really a hammer when it's for No Lynch?

Thank you for ruining MY moment.

I let you have two minutes of blissful ignorance at least.

[shaft.ed]

Agree on the no talkning (although this is talking).

[shaft.ed]

Targeted Yvonne

1. Adele
2. DGB

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[shaft.ed]

Adele's next

[shaft.ed]

If CKD is scum, who could his buddies be, that CKD was the favored player to send in the kill?

No time to pos right now, but this s what really troubles me. I think if we figure this out, we lynch correctly.

[shaft.ed]

OK just thinking about this quickly has me leaning towards Adele as scum.

If CKD is scumm it makes little sense for him to perform the kill. He can create an alibi for himself with his powers, something only me and cicero can do and this is quite useful. If scum I would have very much expected him to target cicero. This gives him a clear alibi and won't get him into trouble since cic's role is not incredibly useful. The ONLY way I can see CKD being the kill perfomer is if partnered with me and Fonz. If either of us didn't target last night then we'd be called out on it. Fonz obviously targeted Adele. And if I targeted Yvonne why bother sending CKD there too?

If Adele is scum she knows I have targeted Yvonne since I didn't target her (Fonz was not acceptable last night since Doc protection would have defeated the purpose of a no lynch). She also knows the Doc targeted her so Yvonne is undefended. There's no way CKD is targeting Yvonne after the Post-Adele jailing yesterday. So Adele would Know that there is an unprotected double watcher available to be killed. The only thing making me less likely to believe this scenario is why implicate CKD?

[shaft.ed]

cic I had already targeted Yvonne before receiving your advice.

[shaft.ed]

why wouldnt DGB submit the kill if no one could watch her?

DGB can be watched, that's one of the main reasons I don't think DGB is scum since the Tracker was taken out and not the Watcher D1.

I was also just thinking that if CKD is scum that means Yvonne and Adele were both town, which means he pretty much HAD to take out a watcher tonight. Yvonne was the obvious choice because the Fonz would be targeting Adele for protection. I still don't understand why he specifically would have submitted the kill. It just doesn't make sense to me. And since taking out a watcher was such a risky gambit, why would scum risk the kill? CKD as scum against Yvonne, Adele and a motivator = 3 watches, which to me would be stupid unless they were sure turning the town back without a NK would still result in losing one of their players to a lynch. However, Adele as scum can very simply take out Yvonne without any worry of being caught or her being protected. It's a much more logical Night Choice for Adele scum.

Fonz, can I ask you who you targeted N1 and N2 now? I think it is relevant that the town had to wait until D3 to get Protection powers over to Adele (although CKD did make that impossible last night).

[shaft.ed]

OK I haven't had a chance to keep up with the thread but one thing has been sticking in my head for the whole afternoon, that is CKD targeting CES. If CKD were to lie about who he targeting DGB would clearly be the most obvious choice. This is because DGB cannot be targeting for watching. THus if CKD lies about jailing CES he is effectively doubling his odds of being caught in a lie (both on the jailing end and the NK end). With only 5 people for the watchers to chose from and Adele being a pretty decent candidate for watching two people, this is an incredibly stupid and risky move if the CES targeting is fabricated.

[shaft.ed]

Why not just pin it on Shaft.ed?

That's what I can't figure out either. It's simple enough for Adele to just pin it on me if she's scum, but CKD making the NK makes absolutely no sense to me.

[shaft.ed]

And jailing DGB risked having DGB try to use her power and thereby being able to confirm or deny your whereabouts.

DGB can only confirmably target me or Adele which = lynched DGB the next day.

[shaft.ed]

Wouldnt it have made more "sense" for Fonz to target you Night 1 instead? Obviously you were not his target Night 1, Fonz, I think it is a good time to tell us your actions for the other nights.

I agree with this question, though I think I know the answer I would like to knwo the targets.

Also sorry for the disjointed replies, not having the time to make a long formatted post so I'm just replying to new points as I'm struck.

[shaft.ed]

If I didn't watch Yvonne, I wouldn't know who targeted her. I'd have to make them up.

It's not anywhere near out of the realm of possibility that you actually did watch Yvonne as scum. You would have two other members to make the kill.

And thanks for the clarification on when you are notified about being given a power, that is somewhat significant, though I would argue the entire town knew the fonz would target you last night.

[shaft.ed]

OK I haven't had a chance to keep up with the thread but one thing has been sticking in my head for the whole afternoon, that is CKD targeting CES. If CKD were to lie about who he targeting DGB would clearly be the most obvious choice. This is because DGB cannot be targeting for watching. THus if CKD lies about jailing CES he is effectively doubling his odds of being caught in a lie (both on the jailing end and the NK end). With only 5 people for the watchers to chose from and Adele being a pretty decent candidate for watching two people, this is an incredibly stupid and risky move if the CES targeting is fabricated.

I don't exactly inspire watchers to watch me, shaft.ed.

But why take that chance when you have a completely 100% untargetable player you can jail?

[shaft.ed]

shafted do you know for a fact that DGB cant be seen killing someone?

Given your lack of understanding DGB's mechanics I think my latest concern may be of little import.

DGB cannot be targeted. This means she cannot be tracker, motivated, redirected, Doc protected or watched. She can however be SEEN. If she makes the NK a watcher targeting that same person will see her do it. But, a watcher cannot watch DGB and see who targets her. That was my point that you are much better off lying about having targeted DGB since a watcher could never watch anyone targeting her she has to be free. Given you lack of understanding how her role works however, I'm not sure that this matters.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: *tracker should be tracked

[shaft.ed]

scum both of you obv

[shaft.ed]

is anyone leaning towards Adele?

I'm leaning Adele, but Fonz's recent post has withered the strength of my opinion.

If we assume that DGB and CKD are scum, what is the optimal course of action?

It strikes me that it would be optimal for CKD to kill and to claim to have targetted CES, whilst Goof dampens CES and claims to have done nothing.

Dampening CES is indistinguishable from him being jailed, apart from that he can be killed, which isn't an issue since scum know they're not targetting him. If CES is watched, the most obvious reason for 'no-result' is a jailing.

So, this course of action has absolutely no downside compared with DGB killing and CKD actually jailing CES. It has the advantage that a watcher's result on CKD is less likely to be believed, imho, than one on DGB, who a couple of people including the NK victim suspected yesterday, and had obvious motive.

I do like how elegant this argument is. But when I proposed a similar multilayered argument yesterday you mentioned that you usually don't buy in to scenarious this complicated. This 1) assumes DGB scum, and still doesn't explain why CKD made the kill. His power is of benefit to the scum, I don't see DGB being as useful.

So the main reason I'm not buying CKDscum is "why would CKD make the kill?"

On the contrary I'm not buying Adele scum because "why would she finger CKD?" It's easy enough for her to say I targeted Yvonne and leave it at that. Neither of these make any sense to me right now.

And Fonz, thanks for the explanations of Night targets. I figured D1 and think D2 was an OK choice, but Adele clearly would have been more beneficial due to circle protecting (but just as useless as CKD due to jailing).

[shaft.ed]

Fonz, if DGB is scum why were they worried about killing off ZONEACE D1?

[shaft.ed]

Fonz, OK I need to go back and reread your argument as to why DGB is scum with CKD. I really don't see that as viable if CKD is putting in the kill.

In a potential CKD, CES, shaft.ed group it might also make sense, fwiw. You have a highly confirmable power, and CES is arguably more valuable to scum going forward since he a) has come under less suspicion and b) doesn't have an action which he'd be expected to use every night. I really don't see how CKD can be scum without DGB, though.

Though my role is highly confirmable it also makes an extra watcher/Doc. That's something scum would not want. I'd argue if I'm scum with CKD, I'd have visited Yvonne myself last night and worried about facing down a possible watcher myself.

Could you address my reasoning as to why I think DGB is the optimal lie for CKD to make if he did in fact make the kill?

[shaft.ed]

IF CKD is the killer, DrippingGoofball is almost certainly aligned with him. There seems to be absolutely no rhyme nor reason for killing Yvonne, and risking an Adelewatch, when a CKD scumgroup could safely kill DGB and leave no possibility of detection, and leave a widely suspected town player in Yvonne alive as a potential counterwagon today. Certainly, I think I would have supported an Yvonnewagon.

One thing you seem to be missing is that CKDscum would have a big reason to kill Yvonne. Since it now seems incredibly likely that Adele is anti-aligned with CKD and Yvonne was town, CKDscum would thus be facing a scenario with 2 watchers and a motivator. If he doesn't take out one of the watchers this round, his scum group is in dire straights if the town lynches correctly today. The odds of you targeting Adele are much much higher than you targeting Yvonne last night since the town "wanted" a NK and passing on protects to Adele means future circle protecting for town. Thus Yvonne was a good candidate for either a CKD or Adele aligned kill. But it's much more risky for CKD since that leaves a watcher open. Yvonne was a sitting duck for Adelescum.

Basically I think hinging your grouping of DGB and CKD on the fact that Yvonne died and not DGB is a little bit hasty.

[shaft.ed]

Yes I agree cic, I think the DGB being alive argument cuts both ways, Adelescum would worry she's jailed, CKDscum may be aligned. Whatever it means it does give a large insight into DGB's alignment should we lynch correctly today.


OK so does anyone want to have a conversation as to what advantages Adele gets from this if it is a gambit? I really don't see the benefit for her as scum to do this.

[shaft.ed]

But killing puts the town at LyLo, and killing DGB has no possibility of detection. Whereas killing Yvonne carries risk (of what may actually have happened). Scum didn't need to take risks last night.

This is an argument against Adele. Killing Yvonne carried no risk to her group last night. But killing DGB risked a jail cell, which again is of little risk but greater than targeting Yvonne which would take out a high benefit town role with no chance of being caught or protected.

Fonz your case against CKD completely hinges on DGB being aligned. I agree with that idea, but the converse is that Adele is scum and killing Yvonne carried no repurcussions.

And I agree, all of these "we didn't know she was watchable" arguments are crap and I think they are confusing the discussion.

[shaft.ed]

cicero stop with the theatrics

[shaft.ed]

Yes.. <two periods are better than one.

I'm still waiting for the discussion as to why Adele scum would finger CKD. I've got nothing.

[shaft.ed]

Is that not the full implication of Fonz's argument? That DGB must be scum?

All I agree with Re: his DGB argument is that if CKD is scum DGB is scum. I do not think that holds true for Adelescum because Yvonne was a huge payoff and completely vulnerable to her group last night whilst DGB was likely locked up. I see no reason for them to be worried in targeting Yvonne.

[shaft.ed]

You're correct. Although then you get into the wifom of why an Adele scumgroup would make a kill that reflects specifically on her.

Does it? I see very valid reasons for CKDscum killing Yvonne last night as well.

[shaft.ed]

Well that was certainly an interesting reaction.

Before you guys put someone at L-1 again can we PLEASE discuss:

Why would scumAdele bother fingering CKD?

[shaft.ed]

It's kinda like swiming in cold water without diving in. If you don't make it past the testicles on the first try it's a lot more painful.

[shaft.ed]

So... if CKD is scum his partners have to be Fonz and Dripping Goofball. Period, full stop. Yes?

You don't think Fonz would try to come up with an excuse for passing on Doc protects. I suppose if there's noone around to protect the Doc, they aren't a threat anymore, taking out the watcher thus makes sense. And do you think Fonz would want to be the one pointing out that his two scum buddies have to be partners?

And I hate WIFOM. Keep the wine behind me so I don't know about it, ignorance is bliss.

[shaft.ed]

Cicero, I have to ask: are you actually playing drunk?

[shaft.ed]

One thing I think I have gleaned from this is that cicero is likely town. I find townies are more likely to start the "you must be scum because no one hammered....." garbage in LyLo. Drunk townie at that, must be all that "networking."

[shaft.ed]

cic, if he's town why does he want to quicklynch CKD regardless of CKD's alignment?

[shaft.ed]

Shaft.ed, my point says nothing about that.

I didnt say that town fonz would want to quicklynch CKD. Because that would be dumb. And I am not dumb. Or drunk.

Then why is Fonz scum for not quicklynching CKD if CKD comes up scum?

[shaft.ed]

So Fonz not hammering right behind me tells us conclusively that Fonz is either town or scum with CKD.

Scum with CKD can mean two things. If CKD is scum then Fonz is scum, or if Fonz is scum CKD is scum. You seem to be saying that both apply where you have only directly proven the latter.

[shaft.ed]

I've only ever asserted the latter!!!

If CKD is scum then Fonz is scum, or

if Fonz is scum CKD is scum

.

Latter bolded for convenience.

IF CKD is scum Fonz is also scum.

Notice how your point is actually the former. Thus this:

All I've demonstrated is that IF CKD turns out to be the right lynch today, Fonz is the right lynch next.

Fails

[shaft.ed]

Cicero it's very simple, The Fonz can only be scum with Adele. Which is good. That means (assuming she isn't busing CKD with impugnity) from my perspective if Adele is scum two of CES, cicero, or DGB must then be scum. Now I need to sit down and see how probable this scenario is, which should help me weigh the odds of Adele being the right or wrong lynch for today. I had been theorizing that Fonz was a likely partner for Adelescum so that little excercise did pay off I guess.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Looks like a lot of us have a case of the whoopsies today. Above should obviously read Fonz CANNOT be scum with Adele.

[shaft.ed]

OK so if cicero, DGB, or CES could kindly tell me whether or not they are scumbuddies with Adele, then I can pick properly between CKD and Adele.

Thanks.

[shaft.ed]

didnt jail you last night and no one targetted you

No the Fonz did.

And CKD I like your analysis style. I've recently been trying to whittle away people from likely scum pairing based on kill availibitiy. I'll see what remains plausible from my knowledge.

[shaft.ed]

I know. My Night choices have been abysmal at succeeding thus far in the game, and I'm frankly surprised noone's been looking harder at me as scum.

DGB I said I liked his style not his conclusions. Anyway, I honestly believe a good analysis should have me as decent odds on scum because my night choices haven't been confirmed two out of three days. I will say that I targeted a pro-town watcher N1 that doubled the odds of the mafia kill being caught and also allowed for Yvonne's power to be deposited. I would strongly argue if I were scum it would have been a lot more convenient for me to have targeted the dead tracker N1 than the living watcher.

Anyway, busy now, but I'm doing overnight experiments tonight. Aught to give me a lot of time to analyze things.

[shaft.ed]

DGB it doesn't take a meta, any mere mortal would have been lynched by now, if not yesterday.

[shaft.ed]

OK So my analysis of possible Adele scum groups. This will exclude myself, CKD and The Fonz for reasons previously described, thus two of Cicero, CES or DGB must be paired with Adele.

First each individually:

Cicero: As far as I can tell he has not been available to perform a kill on any given night. On N1 he targeted me. On N2 he knew of Adele's jailing before it was public. Since notice of Adele's watching failures are not given to her until minutes before the Day breaks it is highly unlikely she would have been able to inform Cicero. Thus the only way Cicero knew about Adele being jailed was either because he targeted her or CKD is scum with him. On N3 he seems to have targeted The Fonz and I have a PM containing the dice roll by which he made this decision (I can post it in thread if anyone wants to check its legitimacy). Thus unless Cicero is scum with The Fonz and he got lucky on rolling his dice in his PM to me he was not available to perform the kill last night either. Conclusion Cicero is very unlikely to have performed a NK, this is despite his ability being quite useful for performing a NK and creating an alibi if scum by either "networking" with fellow scum or "attempting to network" with the NK target.

CES: No Night actions so no way to confirm what he's "doing" at night. Risky choice for NK as he cannot excuse his way out of a watching. Was available to make the kill on N1 and N2 but was jailed by CKD if Adele is scum. I personally believe the choice of a ZONEACE kill N1 leans in favor of CES based on TSQ's attempts to paint ZA as scummy.

DGB: No confirmable night actions. Claimed to have targeted Gorgon N1, CES N2 and noone N3. Was likely to be jailed N3 so possible scum wouldn't have attempted to use her for the NK. Useful abilities for scum so valuable to keep alive. ZA kill N1 would be potntially suboptimal play for DGB scumgroup.

Adele/Cicero/CES: N1 Adele or CES would have to make the kill. Cicero would be the logical choice for the NK of this group as Adele and CES would both have no business targeting anyone N1, but I can confirm cicero targeted me. N2 CES would be required to have killed Mathcam in order for cicero to know that Adele was jailed. Seems odd that he would actually network with a scum buddy and not simply use it as an alibi while performing a NK. N3 cicero again has a confirmed alibi, and CES was jailed so Adele would have to make the kill and be prepared to manufacture a claim. Going last in claim chain would have helped, but quite easy for her to have claimed a watch on Fonz as cicero could supply this information. In this case claim on Yvonne would have been partially improvised. Summary don't find this grouping likely.

Adele/cicero/DGB: N1 Adele or DGB have to make the kill. Again I don't know why 1) cicero wouldn't make the kill in this instance and 2) why the tracker would be targeted when they have a tracker immune player available in DGB. N2 DGB would have to be the killer. Choice of Mathcam makes the watcher an unlikely problem. Can also reasonably expect no Doc protect on Cam. DGB is a good choice for the kill as Adele would have to manufacture targets while cicero has his alibi production. Notice that cicero in this pairing would have to have generally targeted Adele for networking to know that CKD jailed her. Seems a bit odd for scum to do. N3, cicero again has a confirmed alibi in The Fonz. DGB is a likely jailer target so Adele would have to make the kill. As above she would have knowledge of The Fonz if needed for her claim. Switching to Yvonne would likely be impromptu.

Adele/CES/DGB: N1 noone in this scum group would have any business targeting anybody. However, no night actions are confirmable so everyone would be available for the kill. Seems as though CES would be my likely choice for as Adele would likely be kept around by the town for utility and DGB could be useful for scum down the road. N2 Adele is jailed so either CES or DGB have to make the kill. DGB claims a targeting of CES, seems a little weird for scum buddies to target one another to make an "alibi," it's not as if CES knew of anyone targeting him. So CES or DGB could have made the kill. N3 CES is jailed, and DGB would have to be worried about jailing. Adele then would have to make the kill and thus would have to completely fabricate watching results. This seems incredibly NOT worth the risk. However, I do think it's valid that she could deduce I had targeted Yvonne since she was not motivated and that The Fonz would target her in order to pass on Doc powers.

The assumption in the above that I'm most worried about is that the scum were worried that DGB would be jailed. If they didn't care all too much about getting a kill logged than DGB would still be a viable choice to perform the NK even though she may end up jailed. It's not as if the town passing on powers would be of any detriment to Adelescum. In fact receiving Doc powers would allow her to fabricate targets easier than her current restriction to watcher night choices.

Anyway, none of the scum pairings above look stellar. Cicero has alibi's on all nights although it'd be very logical for him to perform a kill while creating a false alibi with a scumbuddy (unless his scumbuddies are likely watcher targets). I'd posit Adele/CES/DGB as most likely. And I realize that I'm a far better candidate than the others discussed above.

Conclusion, I think this analysis detracts from the idea that Adele is scum.

[shaft.ed]

Due to potential conflicts with roleblocking etc, I do not inform any player that they have been motivated until all night choices have been submitted - then the motivation confirmation is provided, and 24 hours allowed for the submission of the motivated choice. Motivation does not allow an additional kill to be submitted, and submitting a kill prevents powers being used at all on a given night.

This certainly changes things. So Adele scum wouldn't have known if she was getting motivated or if Yvonne was. And we already know she doesn't find out about The Fonz targeting until Dawn. I guess she would have been expecting an incoming round of motivation. Don't know how that bodes for Adelescum wanting to target Yvonne. Seems she's much less of a threat if Adele gets the extra watch, AND coming up with two alibis would be a bit tricky especially given the dice claiming. Getting one watcher result would have been possible with cicero on the team, but why not just have cicero "re-network" with Adele and then let him perform the kill?

Question for CKD/Adele, have you guys ever played together for a decent amount of game time before?

I guess I have to do the CKD scum pairings, althought there are quite a lot more I'm putting them off for now.

[shaft.ed]

Conclusion, I think this analysis detracts from the idea that Adele is scum.

No, the analysis detracts from adele being scum WITHOUT you in it, there is a huge difference. After my breakdown of adele scum pairings, I have no doubt that you will be voting me today...or I should say, tha tyou wont be voting Adele today.

CKD if you are going to throw accusations of me being scum around please back them up. My play N1 was very much not in the scums best interest if I'm paired with Adele. My options would have been 1) target the Nk'd tracker, a bit obvious but won't cause any issues and won't make my partner have to falsify results, 2) target the Doc who would likely pass his power on to my partner which is a much much better situation than having to fabricate investigation results, or 3) create a double watcher who will force my partner into fabricating watching results each night.

Wait, I hadn't really thought of this before, but it seems as though fabricating Tracker results is going to be significantly more difficult than fabricating watcher results. That's a decent motivation for taking out a tracker right there.

[shaft.ed]

CKD if you are town we need all of the townies to vote properly in order lynch the right person today. Alienating me without any case is not going to get you very far towards that goal.

And please stop with the out of thread crap. That has absolutely nothing to do with this game.

Also why the constant pandering to cicero? You only mention him, and CES peripherally. You need all three other townies to vote with you today for this game to keep going. Scum need only one townie to vote with them.

[shaft.ed]

Where we're at:

CES : CKD
cicero: CKD
Fonz: leaning CKD
shafted: undecided
DGB: uncreasingly leaning CKD, especially after shafted's analysis.

When the rest of you feel it's time to vote, I'm ready, too.

That's too many CKD's.

[shaft.ed]

I understand, but unless his scumbuddies are bus'ing him, which is quite reasonable given that he was fingered in the NK, then there are too many people willing to lynch him.

[shaft.ed]

Shafted, you spent most of the day directing everyone to target adele with their powers..you had to figure that one of Yvonne's watches was going to target Adele, the other who knows...that is in your favor..but that really is it. Shafted I would be fucking amazed if you actually voted Adele today...

Actually no that was Yvonne. I spent most of the day lynching Oman (yeah even more town cred there), and trying to diffuse the TSQ ZA spat that I felt was a major distraction. And of anyone here, I think I have given Adele the hardest inspection today. I don't know why you keep saying I am the one that won't be voting her today. Go read today's events again, I am constantly trying to view both choices.

Any reason you didnt give the "has nothing to do with this game" speech to DGB when she talked about metas?

Because meta's establish a behavioral trend that is relevant to an individual's game play. You're just inciting a pissing match in the GD that is entirely irrelevant to this game. Do we know if you actually give a shit whether or not you are taunted in the GD? You really don't post there that often. Why should you care?

I am "pandering" to Cicero because I am on the fence about him, especially given DGB's inconsistent play today. If he is town, I need him to think...it is going to take all the town to vote correctly for this lynch.

So your town is Cicero, DGB and CES. This makes no sense as Fonz is already proven not to be aligned with Adele. I suggest you rethink your alignments. From my perspective CES is most likely tied to Adelescum, I'd guess at DGB as the second. Cicero's likely town no matter which way you slice it.

OK, I need to get up the will to do the CKD scum pairing analysis.

[shaft.ed]

NOTHING that shafted did should have convinced you that Adele is town....

QFT. Someone seems to be taking the path of least resistance. DGB the only way you know I'm town is if your scum.

[shaft.ed]

this is not a true statement shafted, I can find at least 3 posts where you talked about the benefits of targetting Adele N1, do I need to post them so we can dispute?

This is turning into an argument over the word most. Your initial post said most of the day. I advocated for targeting Adele. I did not spend 'most' of the day doing so.

Yes compared to CES and DGB it does look like you are weighing both sides. However, actions speak louder than words....and if I was a betting man, I think i know what action you will do today....the only thing I dont know is what words you will put with it.

It might also help that I've been very open about what I'm thinking. You can easily track which way I'm leaning based on my posts. The fact that there are very few possible combinations involving Adele is troubling. But I have yet to do the same analysis on your end. So it's a bit unfair to compare at this point.

No one likes to be trolled, just because I dont post there often doesnt mean I dont read it.

It's still irrelevant to your win condition.

Today, I never said I thought DGB or Cicero was town (they are the fence, but I am leaning to DGB as scum) I have said I strongly think Fonz and CES are town. Please post where I have said anything differently. I think you are scum shafted, and I have a feeling I know how your CKD scum groups will end.

I think I misinterpreted this post to mean that you thought Cic and DGB were town:

I am "pandering" to Cicero because I am on the fence about him, especially given DGB's inconsistent play today. If he is town, I need him to think...it is going to take all the town to vote correctly for this lynch.

If that was not your intent then I will adjust accordingly. Though I'd be careful with CES.

[shaft.ed]

Like that Fonz surely isn't scum with me (unless... does CKD, Fonz and me make sense? Big gambit, and not true, incidentally, but is it hypothetically possible?)

Actually no, in such a situation Fonz has to bus one of the two of you. So he easily could have hammered at that time if he felt like it.

but there are a many things I'd do to win a game of mafia, and cheating is not one of them.

He's not suggesting you cheated, we just aren't all clear on how the night actions go down. Like before today I didn't realize that the mafia made a kill prior to anyone getting notified of my motivation. And that you only know of you new powers at the opening of the day.

I think I've got the time to do my CKD scum groups today. Will be working on that shortly.

[shaft.ed]

Also Adele, why arent you scum hunting today...arent you interesting in who my scum partners are?

QFT

[shaft.ed]

Oh, and:

I understand, but unless his scumbuddies are bus'ing him, which is quite reasonable given that he was fingered in the NK, then there are too many people willing to lynch him.

Unless scum are doing something that is entirely reasonable for them to do in this situation, he's likely town?

Shhh I thought I was onto something.

[shaft.ed]

Frankly, I'm not really seeing much useful discussion here: just useless setup-theoretic blathering with little to no relevance to the actual situation at hand.

It's about time we decided, methinks. And I'm plenty confident.

Time to lynch us some scum.

Vote: curiouskarmadog

I'm honestly at a point where I think CKD and Adele are just as likely to be scum. I've got a bit of work to do, but I'd rather not lynch today. I haven't slept for about 40 hours now with 4 hours the night before that. Not thinking incredibly clearly at the moment.

[shaft.ed]

Also, once the game is over and if one fucking person says the town loss is my fault I will go ape shit..(cicero sort of implied that pages ago)...just telling you up front.

No if town loses this is clearly on Mathcam, useless bastard.

[shaft.ed]

shafted, as I think you are scum..you might want to wait..DGB is posting on site..I am sure that vote will be coming.

Well I'd be more than happy to sit here and not hammer. If I hadn't been posting in my other game at the time, I would have been cleared along with Fonz yesterday.

[shaft.ed]

it is isn't it

[shaft.ed]

Notice how I'm not voting for you

[shaft.ed]

And DGB knows I won't hammer, she doesn't want me cleared.

[shaft.ed]

CKD I've already told you. I'm not voting today. I'm not thinking straight due to lack of sleep, I do not want to make a boneheaded decision in this state. But I did want to hang around in case DGB voted so I could demonstrate my ability to not hammer.

[shaft.ed]

CKD, if I were not me, I would seriously be my number 1 suspect right now. There are just too many failed Night choices, the Oman lynch etc. I completely understand why someone would think I'm scum.

[shaft.ed]

DGB Fonz won't hammer he already had his chance


The only worry is cicero coming in and hammering, or you not trusting me as town both of which are dangerous.

[shaft.ed]

I don't know DGB 1741 and 1742 looked like an itchy trigger finger.

[shaft.ed]

ok, so shafted and DGB are both not scum...jesus christ I am at a loss.

You mean, 'are not both scum.' I guess if they won't quicklynch given this much opportunity, then my gut reaction to that little passage was wrong.

It also suggests (though doesn't prove) that the pair of them are not scum with you either. Hmmm.

unvote

I don't know if I'd go both ways with that Fonz, you were here to move your vote if things got ugly. But it would suggest that DGB and I are either both town, or one of us is town and the other is scum.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah Fonz I misread you. Your conclusions were spot on. OK so Russian Roulette

Round1 > Fonz Not aligned with Adele
Round2 > DGB and shaft.ed not likely both scum

So do we risk another round sometime?

[shaft.ed]

Fonz already unvoted DGB

[shaft.ed]

OK I'm not scum with Adele
quick unvote
now

[shaft.ed]

Fuck

[shaft.ed]

so CES was the townie?

[shaft.ed]

Fonz why didn't you hammer earlier

[shaft.ed]

no

[shaft.ed]

Just don't get why Fonz didn't hammer yesterday.

[shaft.ed]

Oh well, I knew there was something crappy about Adele's claim. Just that lack of hammer threw me off.

Nice game

[shaft.ed]

Yeah CKD that was a bad choice. Adele is unlikely to do the killing and it threw all kinds of suspicion on you.

[shaft.ed]

So why ZA N1?

[shaft.ed]

Bah, it's understandable. I had Fonz leaning scum coming into today, but I gave too much credit to his lack of hammer.

Something felt very wrong about that Adele claim. I really need to pay more attention to those kinds of instincts next time.

And DGB I didn't have anything figured out days ago. I thought CES, Fonz, CKD or Adele contained the scum.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah I'm a little annoyed that CES dropped his vote and then just disappeared like that. But O well I don't see it likely that me cic and him all would have swung over to Adele.

[shaft.ed]

Man I've never made it to late game scum with that much strategy. Very interesting conversations.

Should I add to the confusion by trying to be helpful?

ROFL. so you were trying to be helpful

[shaft.ed]

Yeah if I were lynching anyone yesterday it was very likely to have been a townie.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah for some reason I think we should have lynch DGB today.