If the choices are obvious your reason was irrelevant.cicero wrote:The choices were obvious.
Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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OK I'm not at all seeing this "Yvonne was an easy lynch and cicero came to her rescue" line of reasoning. I just skimmed early D3 and Yvonne wasn't anywhere near being lynched. She at one time had 3 votes on here which were all pressure votes to get her to claim. Interestingly enough the third vote was from cicero himself. There was very little if any case being built against her outside of the lack of willingness to claim. Would someone please explain to me where this idea originated and why it's being perpetuated?-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Thought of the moment. Yvonne is not likely scum. The only part of the case against her I find compelling is the hesitance to claim. The reason that this is scummy is because if she made the kill she has to make something up. Claiming on the Fonz is not a safe claim for a false watcher to make because he is one of three plausible targets for me. Yvonne already knew I hadn't targeted her so it was a 50/50 shot that I hit the Fonz but she was correct. Only way this works is if me or Fonz is scum to notify her of whether or not he was targeted. If she were the killer logical fake claim was that she targeted Adele.
Fonz's recent vote against the CKD wagon for Yvonne really doesn't seem like a neccassary place to bus a scum buddy so I don't think they are a pair.
Thus I think Yvonne is town.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Actually I find the reverse to be true. Scum are generally much more careful about putting forth a plan. I've seen numerous instances of townies "throwing ideas out there" and getting jumped on because of it.The Fonz wrote:I expect town players to push plans which benefit town, and scum players to push plans which benefit scum, more often than not.
I've already stated I had no confirmation that Adele was blocked. I made this statement after cirero said he couldn't talk to Adele. I didn't think cicero could have been jailed because I was able to chat freely with him at night. Therefore my knowledge of Adele's jailing was purely from my interactions with cicero and had no bearing of my targeting Adele.The Fonz wrote:Except that your 'CKD, why did you jail Adele' post makes it pretty obvious that you targetted Adele (because cicero's recruitment failing could have been explained by either of him and adele being jailed, but you immediately accused CKD of jailing Adele).-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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DGB your case was based largely on Mathcam ties.
Also meta Yvonne. She rarely votes, it's not really a useful tell in regards to her play re the Gorgon lynch.
Finally look at what she did with her early claim. If she was lying did she take a non-risky way out? Would it make sense for her to fabricate targeting The Fonz in her position with me, you and the Fonz left to claim?-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Well if you do want to go back to the shooter analysis CKD, and Adele are already not the shooter. I'll tell you I'm not but that's up to you to believe. In my defense I would argue that it is patently obvious if I don't target one of the three useful power roles so I'd have to be CKD aligned to know to target Adele. I don't think Yvonne is per my last argument. I'm not sure about cicero but CKD would have to be his partner if he were the shooter so it's pretty unlikely.
That leaves DGB, Fonz, CES. I do think my vote will land here for the day.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Here let me use the voice of TSQ:DrippingGoofball wrote:
I don't get that part. I need TSQ to explain it to me.shaft.ed wrote:Would it make sense for her to fabricate targeting The Fonz in her position with me, you and the Fonz left to claim?TSQ wrote:-Being a motivator I have to target either Yvonne, Adele, or The Fonz else I will be assuradely lynched.
-I was claiming after Yvonne thus Yvonne didn't know who I targeted but knew I didn't target her so I would have landed on Adele or The Fonz.
-Since she doesn't know that (unless Fonz or I am scum with her) she's taking a 50/50 gamble on being caught in a lie by claiming to target the Fonz.
-If she claims Adele she is perfectly safe.Note that the TSQ didn't actually write the above statement this activity was purely for DGB's benefit.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Ciciero, very a good point. The only player after D1 that knew they were going last, if at all, was The Fonz not Yvonne. Quite the interesting looking back at the push to make Yvonne claim first.
That's my whole point she didn't have to get fifty percent lucky. Anyone else in the town and she doesn't have to worry about the motivator catching her in a 50/50 lie. Granted by targeting the Fonz she knows he can't catch her lying but he could have effectively targeted anyone in the town so it's better odds (1/7 vs 1/2) for her to pick a non-motivatory target with 100% odds of not getting caught by claiming on Adele.DGB wrote:Could she have gotten lucky? Fifty percent lucky.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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I'm sorry that was bastardic of me. I just noticed you posting in our other game and was really wanting you to weigh in here because a lot is going on. Apologies.CKD wrote:now, shafted...why did you feel the need to say I was avoiding the thread...when in fact I just dont have time to post something worthwhile?-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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OK it occured to me that we hadn't discussed ZONEACE's death yesterday because of the glaring Gorgon issue. So I was pondering who may be driven to NK ZA.
1) Simplest Scenario is that Yvonne is scum and wanted to take out the only other investigative role last night. Killing ZA would be a non-issue outside of Doc protection since noone would be able to catch such a scum team in the act. However, as I've stated before I don't think Yvonne would have been likely to be so forward in passing her abilities to Adele. Thus Yvonnescum would have to be paird with Adele. And there is some very poor distancing on Yvonne's part to support such an idea. But I'm not really sure I get the Mathcam targeting in such an instance. If you can't be caught why not kill the Doctor or Jailkeeper who could really hinder your chances of winning.
Secondary pairing here would be CKD as Yvonne would have been OK sending powers to Adele if CKD could take her out of commission as was done yesterday. CKD's stating he would vote Yvonne but seeming reluctance to would support such a pairing.
2) Second scenario involves TSQ's D1 play. I get the feeling reading back on it that TSQ knew he wouldn't be able to get a ZA lynch. But he was very successful in casting doubt onto ZA. Thus he could have been simply setting him up for the NK, as lack of trust means lack of Doc protect, watcher targeting. Obviously this play would exclude Yvonne and possibly The Fonz. I would also posit that it excludes DGB since the Tracker is of no use against her power, the watcher would have made more sense. So possible pairing are reductive as Cicero, CKD and Adele. Unless CES is bus'ing CKD, which is entirely possible, I'd put the Cicero Adele pairing as more likely. I think this scenario fits better with the Mathcam N2 kill.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Hmm I find it interesting that Adele's list contains the two popular bandwagons with the third most recent movement towards a lynch, and that DGB has been the next closest thing to a bandwagon we have had today. Will reread Adele to see if she was purposefully avoiding my question or if she has in fact cast suspicion on DGB prior.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Sorry Adele that is not going to cut it. You haven't said a single word about DGB all day. Yet you claim that you always think she is scummy. WHy on earth would you want to lynch someone for which your scumdar doesn't work when you must lynch correctly? This makes no sense. Add in you flipping back and forth between Yvonne and CKD at the whim of the town today, your stating that since CKD is only at L-3 it's "safe" to vote for him, and your unexplained Gorgon hammer. I think you warrant a vote.
vote: Adele-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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I'm not strawmanning anything here.Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
Firstly, if you can't think of a reason, then you're not thinking hard enough. My scumdar doesn't work on DGb, but I wouldn't exclude lynching here today either.shaft.ed wrote:WHy on earth would you want to lynch someone for which your scumdar doesn't work when you must lynch correctly? This makes no sense.
Secondly, you're pretty much strawmanning here. She merely said she'd rather take a DGb lynch over a no lynch. She certainly hasn't been fighting to get DGb lynched.
I'm actually fairly sure Adele is town at this point.
Adele rather flippantly adds DGB to a list of people she is comfortable lynching today. She has not once expressed any concerns on DGB, yet all of the sudden she is suspicious, and this coincides with a point where DGB happens to have a couple votes on her.
And I didn't make my case clearly. My point wasn't that one shouldn't lycnh someone because they cannot read them. My point was that this was the ONLY reason that Adele provided though stating she could provide reasons if needed. This is really a weird statement to me.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Adele. I read back over your original post a couple times and I do think I was interpretating in a more scummy way than it was written. I do still have a bad leaning for you but I would like to get back to my line of thought before this came up.
unvote
OK so before I postulated that last nights killer had to be one of CES, DGB, or The Fonz. Would the three of you be kind enough to comment on the other two players on this list?-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Actually with a role like this on a scum team it would make most sense for BOTH DGB and the killer to target the victim. Only reason not to do this is if the other two scum have roles that should be used and can be verified: me, "Yvonne", CKD, "Adele", cicero, "Fonz" (quotations for nonverifiable roles that can be caught in a lie. This would also tie in perfectly with a ZA kill N1 as his absence makes the system much easier to manipulate.Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:No, shaft.ed. It's more likely she performed the kill if she's scum. Also, I'm unlikely to be protected.
Side note, anyone else getting an artificial argumentation vibe from Cicero and CKD?-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Yeah I'm still not sure about this. The scum are taking a gamble if they do kill. Adele can possibly get motivation/healing powers that would help if a no kill occurs or we lynch correctly tommorow.
But getting a proper lynch in 4:3 isn't all that easy. Not that 5:3 is incredibly better. It just means one townie can be wrong.
I do have to say my suspicions are all over the place today. I really can't zero in on anyone. I do have a few groupings in mind, but all of them seem equally likely. But since I am working from groupings removing a single player from the game would potentially remove a group.
To sum, starting to like the idea better than before.-
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[CKD impression] Are you tellin me what to do? No one tells me what to do![/CKD impression]cicero wrote:And I think Shaft.ed motivating her will make that more likely to happen AND give her motivating powers for the next night (should we survive) thereby making town even stronger - and making it harder for her to lie.
This is where I agree.cicero wrote:And most importantly I think we're about to shoot into the dark.
vote: No Lynch-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Yeah my impression wasn't anything like this.CKD wrote:I will do what I feel I need to do, what I wont do is agree to anything so the mafia knows before the night.
OK one thing I'd like to adjust. I move that we strike CES from the rolling list as he isn't likely to claim he targeted anyone and it will slow down the process come claim time.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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Adele with 3 scum of likely 4 people scum can easily rig the chain claim. Don't be dense.
It's not trusting to chance, it's trusting to not letting scum know anything about the claim order tommorow. If you can make a case that X is far scummier than anyone else we might have a reason to put that individual first, but I see no compelling reason to do so.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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The only way CES targeted anyone is if he killed them as scum. Do you think he's going to claim that? So in order to make the claims process in a faster order, so that scum cannot adjust accordingly, I would prefer not to have to wait for CES to say he didn't target anyone and then roll the dice.cicero wrote:
I dont follow the wisdom of this at all. Explain more plz.shaft.ed wrote:
Yeah my impression wasn't anything like this.CKD wrote:I will do what I feel I need to do, what I wont do is agree to anything so the mafia knows before the night.
OK one thing I'd like to adjust. I move that we strike CES from the rolling list as he isn't likely to claim he targeted anyone and it will slow down the process come claim time.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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I got a PM from cicero about a day before D2 broke. It was over the weekend though so I wasn't around to respond. Cicero didn't tell me who he targeted last night, nor did I tell him.curiouskarmadog wrote:so that I understand, usually you get 24 hours to chat after results are given. However, since I jailed adele, 24 hours was not needed, and the Mod started the game right after the Pm results. right?
Now, we could use Shafted here to verify this. Shafted, N1 were you given 24 hours to chat with Cicero after you joined his network? Did you know last night that Cicero received a "fail" when he tried to recruit Adele? If so, when last night? Did you know that Cicero was going to try to recruit Adele? Sorry if some of these questions are repeats.
This is just some information I would like out in the open today.-
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Fonz, while I agree with your "easy lynch" example, I don't think this game represents the extremes you are talking about. If we had targets today that were overtly scummy I think we would be picking between them and not having a large number of people pushing a No Lynch. And I would argue that CKD's jailing action was more scummy than Yvonne's suggestion of CKD's jailing action. So I don't think anyone is an "easy lynch" today.-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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OK just thinking about this quickly has me leaning towards Adele as scum.
If CKD is scumm it makes little sense for him to perform the kill. He can create an alibi for himself with his powers, something only me and cicero can do and this is quite useful. If scum I would have very much expected him to target cicero. This gives him a clear alibi and won't get him into trouble since cic's role is not incredibly useful. The ONLY way I can see CKD being the kill perfomer is if partnered with me and Fonz. If either of us didn't target last night then we'd be called out on it. Fonz obviously targeted Adele. And if I targeted Yvonne why bother sending CKD there too?
If Adele is scum she knows I have targeted Yvonne since I didn't target her (Fonz was not acceptable last night since Doc protection would have defeated the purpose of a no lynch). She also knows the Doc targeted her so Yvonne is undefended. There's no way CKD is targeting Yvonne after the Post-Adele jailing yesterday. So Adele would Know that there is an unprotected double watcher available to be killed. The only thing making me less likely to believe this scenario is why implicate CKD?-
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DGB can be watched, that's one of the main reasons I don't think DGB is scum since the Tracker was taken out and not the Watcher D1.CKD wrote:why wouldnt DGB submit the kill if no one could watch her?
I was also just thinking that if CKD is scum that means Yvonne and Adele were both town, which means he pretty much HAD to take out a watcher tonight. Yvonne was the obvious choice because the Fonz would be targeting Adele for protection. I still don't understand why he specifically would have submitted the kill. It just doesn't make sense to me. And since taking out a watcher was such a risky gambit, why would scum risk the kill? CKD as scum against Yvonne, Adele and a motivator = 3 watches, which to me would be stupid unless they were sure turning the town back without a NK would still result in losing one of their players to a lynch. However, Adele as scum can very simply take out Yvonne without any worry of being caught or her being protected. It's a much more logical Night Choice for Adele scum.
Fonz, can I ask you who you targeted N1 and N2 now? I think it is relevant that the town had to wait until D3 to get Protection powers over to Adele (although CKD did make that impossible last night).-
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shaft.ed dem.agogue
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OK I haven't had a chance to keep up with the thread but one thing has been sticking in my head for the whole afternoon, that is CKD targeting CES. If CKD were to lie about who he targeting DGB would clearly be the most obvious choice. This is because DGB cannot be targeting for watching. THus if CKD lies about jailing CES he is effectively doubling his odds of being caught in a lie (both on the jailing end and the NK end). With only 5 people for the watchers to chose from and Adele being a pretty decent candidate for watching two people, this is an incredibly stupid and risky move if the CES targeting is fabricated.-
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I agree with this question, though I think I know the answer I would like to knwo the targets.CKD wrote:Wouldnt it have made more "sense" for Fonz to target you Night 1 instead? Obviously you were not his target Night 1, Fonz, I think it is a good time to tell us your actions for the other nights.
Also sorry for the disjointed replies, not having the time to make a long formatted post so I'm just replying to new points as I'm struck.-
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