Mini 521 (SMSM, Ended)

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

oh shit

i should read the last page first when i'm rereading.

aw dangit.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Quite Correct.
'

DAYKILL: FIASCO

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Fiasco

Do you think this subgame matters?(in terms of winning the game)

If so how?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

That statement isn't even true.

I will be going after your metalynch hard.

The only question now is which "side" you are on in terms of this subgame. I suggest the mafia now out themselves because I think we have our metalynches now.

Our best bets are Fiasco/Sarcastro

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Don't try to change the subject, I have my reasons for my actions.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

If a side with more townies wins, townies have a better chance of meta-lynching scum. I agree the stakes aren't as high as normal, but why not make some attempt at playing the game if we've signed up anyway? How else are we going to judge meta-alignments?

For example, if there are 9 protown subgame players and 3 mafia subgame players, but the metamafia are all in the "town" section of the subgame, then if the side with more "metatownies" which would be the "subgameTown" won, the chances for the metatownies to lynch metamafia would not be "better", it would be zero since there are no metamafia in the subgameMafia for them to lynch.

If you think for a second what Subgames actually do, I would argue that they do nothing but decide who is up for lynch. Given that we have no real information to go on, why limit our choices for metalynching to the smaller group rather than the larger group?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

How do you choose who to eliminate if the town loses?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

when you say same as usual, what do you mean?

What qualities would you look for in order to decide who to vote off?

Would you decide to vote off those who played the worst? the best? looked scummiest? looked most innocent?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

but what do you use to determine who is scummy and who isn't?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

That's my point,, you would use evidence from minigame play to lynch in the metagame, that's a very easy assumption to fall into.

But think now if the town LOSES this subgame, who will be on the hotseat? The people who played the worst obviously, but who would not fall under suspicion by the standard method of thinking?(which is the he did something scummy in the game)

The obvious answer is the person who was nightkilled on night one with no chance to meaninfully impact the game.

How could you blame the town's loss on Sarcastro? You basically can't because he didn't have a chance to do anything!

That's exactly why in my opinion the Mafia killed Sarcastro. Because a MetaMAfia on the SubgameMafia had the idea that to secure his teammate's position, he would shoot a nightkill at him so that his teammate would have no possibility of commiting any anti-metaactions and would have little chance of being metalynched on the standard lines of thought for metaguilt(which is playing suspiciously in terms of popular opinion)

What I was to know after this game is exactly who among the SubMafia suggested killing Sarcastro.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Max, if you look at what the distributions would be, you'd realize what you said is wrong.

It's basic probability.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote Fiasco

deadline incoming

vote people.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm not lynching Fiasco because I think he is subgameScum, I'm lynching Fiasco because I think he is MetaGameScum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

That's exactly correct Fiasco. I think if you really cared about winning the metagame, you wouldn't have been so easily brushed off into focusing on the subgame instead.

I think you talking about metastrategies is kind of you trying to look metatown because of how easily you were talked into going along with them into playing the subgame.

I think if you really were thinking about metagame strategy, you would've realized that the subgame does not actually matter except for determining who is up for lynch in the metagame and thus its very difficult for me to imagine you being talked into going along and just playing the subgame so easily.

IMO the subgame really is just a distraction because if you think about it, the goals of Mafia in the Subgame is the SAME as the goal of Town in the subgame, so I don't see how we could use subgame behavior the determine metagame alignment, which ultimately is our goal.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

The them in that sentence is referring to the people that Fiasco said told him to play subgames and forget about the metagame.

I am not part of "them" because I did not tell him to do this.

As a rebuttal to your earlier point, the same can be said of a MetaScum who is Subscum or Subtown.

My point that any player would play for their side in the subgame regardless of meta-alignment still stands, which is why I believe subgames are useless for actually rooting out metascum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

and Kabenoon, that's not what that part of the post is saying at all, I'm saying that Fiasco is trying to look like he is "metatown" by talking ABOUT metastrategies, then later he claims he is PERSUADED by "everyone" to just play the subgame, I haven't included myself in "them" because I did not persuade him to just play the subgame.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

he is blowing smoke.

and scum

vote fiasco

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

You are counterattacking me on Semantics?

Coward!

Roll out the Cannons! We shall chase the Turks into the Sea!

For the Red Flag! For the Glory of Constantine!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm going to lay out why I think Fiasco is MetaGame-Scum.

First off I'd like to say from my limited experience with Fiasco in games,(Verbose II) and from some of the posts of his I've read in Mafia Discussion, that I believe he is an excellent player and has a very good grasp of analysis and strategy.

Which is why when he backed off from metagame discussion, I don't think he did it solely because people wanted him to "just" play the subgame as he said, and as a subnote, even if he did actually choose to go with the flow and just play the subgame, I would have a hard time seeing a MetaTown Fiasco who started off wanting some metagame discussion to be so easily discouraged into just playing the subgame.

He also made this quote below which has been basically his stance on the relationship between the subgame and the metagame:

A metatownie who is subscum knows at least one of the subscum is a metatownie. That gives him an incentive to play for a subscum win. A metatownie who is subtown knows at least one of the subtown is a metatownie. That gives him an incentive to play for a subtown win.

Until we develop metagame suspicions, we should play just as if we were playing a typical mafia game.

This would be a mistake, you can see why this analysis is flawed if you simply apply the same line of reasoning to the metaScum perspective.

A metascum who is subscum knows at least one of the subscum is a metascum. That gives him an incentive to play for a subscum win. A metascum who is subtown knows at least one of the subtown is a metascum. That gives him an incentive to play for a subtown win.

Basically the incentives are the same and I would argue that the incentive the scum have to play for a win in the subgame are STRONGER than that of the town because of the information they have, having a subScum in either team is a lot stronger information than having a Subtown in either team.

Because the intuition works both ways, and the incentives for each side are similar in direction, it's basically useless for differentiating, if everybody plays to win in the subgame, how do you tell who is scum and who is town from the subgame?

I find it unlikely that Fiasco did not follow through on the next step of his analysis and come to the conclusion that the line of reasoning that he uses detailing why metatownies should play for a win is inapplicable because the exact same incentives exist for the mafia and such a variable is not a separating condition and thus is fairly useless in winning the overall metagame.

Considering that the roles are pretty much randomly distributed, why should we play for a town win when a town win basically limits our metalynching options to three people while a scumwin would give us many more options?

Also I thought that Fiasco's comments regarding my "rudeness" for not posting in the early part of the day, about playing the subgames for "fun", and the attack on me for semantics that borderlines on nitpicking show that he is getting rather desperate.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Not true.

The highest number of possible scum in a team in this subgame is 3,

so even in the most extreme case of 1 metascum in a team of 3 and 2 metascum in a town of 9, the ratios of metascum to total(which would be probability of lynching metascum on a purely random basis) would be 33.3% for the scumteam and 22.22% for the townteam.

So the scum would STILL play for the win even if the subscum percentage was as small as possible while having still one scum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

That case supports my point max, if all 3 metascum are subscum then they would WANT to play for a subscum win.

The incentives for scum play are the SAME in this subgame as the incentives for town play in terms of WHICH SIDE THEY WANT TO WIN!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm calling out the subscum so I will know if you are on the subscum or on subtown.

I can't expect YOU to tell me truthfully, so if they won't come out, I'm going to push for your lynch to find out your subalignment and play my damndest to make sure that subalignment is up for metalynching so I can metalynch you.

Yes, everybody is "probably town" which is why it is semantics. I don't say "X is probably town but scummier than others" I say "X is scum". I don't point the fact that any player I accuse is "probably town" because it's true for everyone and thus I think is semantics.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I do disagree.

The Metatown Subtown should be playing the game to win the MetaGame, not the Subgame, to lynch 3 people who claim SubScum in order to win a SubGame without any regard to the MetaGame is GROSSLY anti-metatown action.

I do agree that Metatown SubScum are MORE likely to give themselves away than MetaScum SubScum, which is ALL THE MORE REASON METATOWN SUBTOWN SHOULD NOT BLINDLY LYNCH THE SUBSCUM!!

To completely ignore the information at hand about the MetaGame and play only for a SubGame win would be GROSSLY nonbeneficial for the MetaTown and I believe that any MetaTown who would do that is performing a disservice to his alignment in the Metagame and playing the Metagame incredibly poorly.

I expect the players here to be rational and understanding. Thus I do not expect the outcome of the subscum coming out to be them being killed.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I also expect the rest of the game to show up and actually do something.

Why did you all sign up for this game if you aren't actually going to say anything?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Can we just concede as town and then Metalynch Fiasco/Sarcastro?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

do you have a better plan?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

obv metascum or obv subscum?

and why?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I've already posted all my reasoning of why I want Sarc/Faisco metalynched.

If you have better reasons for metalynching anyone else or expect better reasons to come up, you're going to have to produce them.

If you don't agree with the reasoning I've posted, then tell me why.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Wow.

Just Wow.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Um does anyone want to tell me why we shouldn't go for a subtown loss and then lynch Fiasco/Sarcastro?

cuz that's kinda what I'm going for.


Unless like you guys have a better idea of how to catch metascum... or some reason why my proposed method is bad...

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Your logic would make sense if I had any ability to find out the alignment of my metascum partners if I were metascum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Um. I know they are subtown.. You can read the first post of this thread where their alignments are listed.

Basically I'm really fustrated with this game because I have been saying and outlining since day one why I believe our best option is to go for a Fiasco/Sarcastro Metalynch.

Nobody has decided to either support my plan nor provide a reason why my reasoning is bad or invalid. Nobody has come up with an alternate method for finding metascum.

Basically I'm annoyed and fustrated at this game because it seems to me that none of you are playing or paying attention.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Who among the scum ordered the kill on Sarcastro

I want the answer from more than one source.

Basically who came up with the initial idea of killing Sarcastro?

@Adele, you

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

@Adele you can criticize me for me upset that you guys didn't understand me, but you guys never told me that you didn't understand what I was saying, you just basically decided to ignore me.

@Fiasco, because I'm not completely certain that there is a metascum among the subscum, just like I'm not completely certain that you are metascum or that Sarcastro is metascum, however I do believe you and Sarc to be higher probability metascum than anyone else at the moment based on the motives I have pointed out.

If I go for the town win, I could lynch the Subscum who sent in the kill, but who would I use the other lynch on? one of his random partners?

My point is that IF there is metascum among the subscum, they are more likely to target Sarcastro, but if there are no metascum among the subscum, then the odds of hitting scum by lynching town suddenly jumps much higher and Sarcastro is as good as anyone else for a lynch to hit metascum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

SARC AND FIASCO!?!?

WOW

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I want confirmation from WWB about Sarc/Fiasco.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

It helps because we can lynch Sarc/Fiasco now.

I'm wagering Rose thought along the lines I highlighted and put down Sarc/Fiasco's names for her preferences for the nightkill because she is metascum with them.

She has never played another game on this site so I don't see why she would pick them on the information we have, she basically has no experience on this site and also the interaction in the pre-night phase wasn't enough for her to determine who should die, also she didn't even participate in that phase so I can't see her giving it that much weight if she didn't think it was worth talking in.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Oops.

I still think they are metascum together though.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I fail to see how the difference between the two would affect the situation in my PoV or in the town's.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

There are two points of view that are in question

in my PoV, I know I am a guranteed innocent.

in the town's PoV, I am not a guranteed innocent.

I am saying that the distinction fiasco is asking me for does no matter in either PoV.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

You haven't said a word about who you think is metascum.

Thought this is probably true for quite a few players in this game.

Makes for a somewhat lame game.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

1) I don't do intentional craplogic,
Um, why wouldn't you do it if you thought you could get away with it and it would further your group's aims? I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here... and how would I know if you are telling the truth? Should I take you on your word?

2) plans that ask metagame townies to play against their own subgame side cannot be enforced because people will vote out of suspicion rather than punishment,
Yes, people vote out of suspicion, but what suspicion is the suspicion that matters? Subgame suspicion or metagame suspicion? Is it more important to figure out who are the metascum or who are the subscum? Because our goal in this game is not to win every subgame but to win the metagame, people SHOULD be voting according to their metagame suspicions. If I think that Player A/B are Metascum, and they happen to be on the same SubSide with me, why would I not play against that SubSide in order to try to metalynch A/B?


3) asking for scum to come out if you're playing for a town loss is stupid, because you don't know the town will go along even if it's the right strategy; better ask them first.

Stupid for whom? Where's the harm? These points have nothing to do with my guilt nor yours. Am I trying to "trick" these subscum out to get them lynched? For that to happen, people will have to ignore the fact that SubRole Assignment has NOTHING TO DO WITH META-ALIGNMENT. If I had 12 players, 3 of them being scum, and then I assigned divided the 12 into 2 groups arbitirarily, a group of 3 and a group of 9, and you were trying to lynch scum, would you want to lynch from a group of 9 or a group of 3? Would knowing which group you are in change your opinion much? If the town is not willing to even think about it along those lines and only care about staying off the lynching block today then they have exchanged longterm victory for shorterm survival and they are going to be screwed anyway.

You've been trying to distract from the main point all along.

I'm probably going to be metalynched, so good luck guys.[/mech]