Mini 1764: Netherspite's SORM III [Game Over]

[Xkfyu]

I tried to get in here in the two previous slots replaced, but I wasn't fast enough. Third time's a charm, though.

I'll catch up as fast as I can!

[Xkfyu]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: no lynch

why

Ok, I just got here and it's painfully obvious, even to me.

[Xkfyu]

On second thought, I'm thinking I would prefer policy lynching one of aneninen/yarrrrgami today on account of their unreadable posts.

Ok, well for starters, I could get behind this.

Other than that, I'm not interested in lynching Snarky. I'm sure he'll be sorted out with the NK, and I'm not interested in lynching Rory for now, unless I see something that suggests that he's not actually a Survivor.

UNVOTE: Rory

VOTE: Aneninen

[Xkfyu]

@Xkyfu anen stops doing it and has a reason. Not a good vote.

Yep, I just now got to that part and was coming to

UNVOTE: Aneninen

I'll wait until I'm fully caught up to vote again.

[Xkfyu]

Ok so, I see two people have suggested a no lynch (Firebringer and shos). There are only two roles that only activate after a no lynch, right?

[Xkfyu]

Ok so, I see two people have suggested a no lynch (Firebringer and shos). There are only two roles that only activate after a no lynch, right?

Sorry, it was randommidget, not Firebringer.

[Xkfyu]

@droog we are getting no where with discussion and will probably hit town, we get a huge amount of night info that can help discussion. There's a reason this setup generally starts with day 0

No - period.

We have confirmed 3p. If there simply is not a better vote for this day then lynching the 3p is far better than a no-lynch.

Yeah, I agree with this. "Will probably hit town" is technically true (7:6 odds), but it's basically 50/50. So, to me, this looks like RM is trying to hard sell the no lynch, and I generally find hard sells scummy.

VOTE: randomidget

Town reads on Firebringer and Yarrr (posts are still annoying as shit though).

No read on Snarky, but figure he'll be sorted out through night actions, so not interested in lynching him. Same goes for Rory, really.

Everyone else is straight up null for me, right now.

[Xkfyu]

Town gains a huge amount tonight.

That's an invalid point. Town will gain a huge amount of information tonight in all possible lynch outcomes.

Generally I would say lynch is fine but we are getting no where.

There are still more than 6 days left in the phase. Why are you in such a hurry?

Day 1 lynches almost always hit town. Look at previous iterations.

That's another invalid (and this time misleading) point. First of all, previous iterations have no bearing whatsoever on this one. We have a 6 out of 13 random chance of hitting some sort of scum.

However, we already have claimed 3rd parties. So, assuming they aren't town fake claiming 3rd party, we can guarantee that we don't lynch town.

So no, I'm not buying what you're selling.

[Xkfyu]

OK fair enough on the fair party lynches. I generally don't worry about them too much early with the exception of cult, but that's a difference of opinion.

It's not a difference of opinion. Stop trying to play it down as such. You're just back pedaling.

I think it's safe to assume that the 3rd party claims are not coming from town players. So, they are either legit 3rd party, of fake Mafia claims. Therefore, if we lynch one of them, we are about as guaranteed to not hit town as it's going to get. Which means we'll go into the night with a maximum number of town PRs, thus giving us maximum information. We stand to gain literally nothing from a no lynch, as far as I can tell (unless I'm missing something, in which someone feel free to correct me).

[Xkfyu]

i like that
but counterpoint

if we lynch a 3rd party
the other 2 3rd parties will resent us

That's not necessarily a given, but it is a possibility that I didn't consider.

I guess we'll have to talk it out with them, then. I'm not wholly convinced that at least one of them is not Mafia, though. So, we might be better off just lynching a claimed 3rd party anyways. We'll miss town, and have a chance to hit Mafia, if one of them is a fake claim.

However, this is my first role madness game (other than an abandoned Lawless game where I was a Survivor), so I'm probably not the one that should be talking about ideal D1 play.

[Xkfyu]

certainly
not all the neutrals can win
if they want town support
they should compete for it

This is pretty much along the lines of what I'm thinking. We just need to make sure that we have a clear advantage. Otherwise, they probably won't care too much about having town support.

[Xkfyu]

i like that
but counterpoint

if we lynch a 3rd party
the other 2 3rd parties will resent us

That's not necessarily a given, but it is a possibility that I didn't consider.

I guess we'll have to talk it out with them, then. I'm not wholly convinced that at least one of them is not Mafia, though. So, we might be better off just lynching a claimed 3rd party anyways. We'll miss town, and have a chance to hit Mafia, if one of them is a fake claim.

However, this is my first role madness game (other than an abandoned Lawless game where I was a Survivor), so I'm probably not the one that should be talking about ideal D1 play.

I have a lot of experience with sc2/town of salem which is essentially the same as this. A lot of time town lose early but end up winning bc neutral killing and mafia wipe each other out.

Would you say that avoiding a town lynch in D1 is a big advantage, and significantly increases the chances of a town win?

[Xkfyu]

i like that
but counterpoint

if we lynch a 3rd party
the other 2 3rd parties will resent us

O no; They be resentin' us, how dreadful that be!

If they be the types who want to be makin' someone walk the plank, then they be trying to "work with us" regardless, and will likely be startin' tomorrow with "I be a medical examiner, I checked Mr. TargetPirate and he be scurvy!"

Survivors be "working with us" only insofar as they aren't walkin' any planks. According to the captain's scrawlings, they don't have to be afraid o' being killed anyway. No amount of ill-will toward their survivin' buddies is going to change that.

Making Rory walk the plank isn't a bad idea. Being all nice-like and not feeding anyone to the sharks in the hopes that shorty-pirate be a non-scurvy brig-watcher is ridiculous. Shorty-pirate isn't any better at figuring out who is scurvy then the rest of us, so at best he accomplishes exactly what we'd do ourselves: kill someone who seems scurvy. There's also no guarantee he's not scurvy himself, though I doubt he is.

I cringe at even the thought of engaging in a conversation with you, but.....

Why do you think RM isn't scum? The recent stuff he says is pretty concerning.

[Xkfyu]

It be reasonably clear that shorty-pirate is a brig-watchin' deckhand, I think we agree there. So be he scurvy or no?

I was thinking it would take a pretty brave buccaneer to be suggestin' a No Plank-walkin' as scum so persistent-like. I would be expectin' him to drop it and concern himself elsewhere once it appeared not to be happenin' were he a scurvy dog.

You're correct that he hasn't been doing much else that caught me good eye, but his fixatin' on his deckhandly duties be something that I see more often in non-scurvy folk than their scurvy counterparts.

(Lol @ "caught me good eye")

Yeah, I can see that. It's just that his points are invalid and quite obviously being used in an attempt to manipulate us into a no lynch. I do have a certain distaste for the used car salesman routine, and I feel like that's kinda what he's been doing. So, maybe it's just me.

[Xkfyu]

In post 273, Xkfyu wrote:
In post 271, droog wrote:
In post 269, randomidget wrote:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: no lynch

why

Ok, I just got here and it's painfully obvious, even to me.

I'm all ears.

He's clearly soft claiming a role that is only activated at night. There are only two, one is town and one is mafia. I highly doubt that he's claiming scum, so it's a soft Jailor claim.

[Xkfyu]

In post 308, SnarkySnowman wrote:
I'm down with a massclaim. I am Busdriver.

Stop massclaiming.
That's how we started going down last time.
Also, I think this claim was actually fake.

Considering that this was the second time he has actually claimed, and that no one actually agreed to a mass claim, I'd say it's a pretty good bet that it's fake.

[Xkfyu]

No, it's not 'clearly', lol.

This setup is less of a mafia game and more of a holy-shit-wtf-game.
so basically just trying to figure out what the hell is going on is a good part of why I offered nolynch

getting a N1 result list could be useful.

What's with the hard pushing for the no lynch, when there's actually no real benefit for us, then?

[Xkfyu]

And we are getting a N1 result list REGARDLESS of the outcome of the lynch. Why do you people keep acting like we're not?

[Xkfyu]

In post 308, SnarkySnowman wrote:
I'm down with a massclaim. I am Busdriver.

Stop massclaiming.
That's how we started going down last time.
Also, I think this claim was actually fake.

Considering that this was the second time he has actually claimed, and that no one actually agreed to a mass claim, I'd say it's a pretty good bet that it's fake.

Then why are you not voting here?

Why should I be?

[Xkfyu]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: no lynch

why

Ok, I just got here and it's painfully obvious, even to me.

Do feel free to explain why you think no lynching is a good choice. Because its not that obvious.

Do feel free to explain why you think not properly reading the thread is a good choice.

I've been very (probably the most) vocal about being completely against no lynching. What I was saying was that it was painfully obvious why RM wanted to no lynch, as I've also already explained.

[Xkfyu]

Please claim Aronis.

With 2 votes? One of which is from a person who has been out to get me from game start and the second from someone mindlessly sheeping them. So neither of which are very credible. Not to mention you've played like a complete VI. I'll pass up this opportunity, tyvm.

Actually, you have 3

VOTE: Aronis

oops, I mean 4 votes on you. You really should start reading better.

[Xkfyu]

VOTE: aronis

This should be 5.

Is there a reason for that, or are you just hopping on a wagon? Because as far as I can tell, this is the only thing you've said about Aronis:

If aronis was scum in secret hitler, he is here too

Which is pretty flaky, unless you actually have a connection between this game and that one, that you can explain.

[Xkfyu]

trust me

You know full well how ridiculous of a thing to say that is.

[Xkfyu]

In post 318, Xkfyu wrote:
And we are getting a N1 result list REGARDLESS of the outcome of the lynch. Why do you people keep acting like we're not?

Who said that?

Who said what? That we are getting a N1 result list? Or the ones that are acting like we're not?

In post 342, Xkfyu wrote:
In post 341, shos wrote:
VOTE: aronis
This should be 5.

Is there a reason for that, or are you just hopping on a wagon?

Wait-oh. You did the very same right before Shos...
Or was that a pressurizing vote to make Aronis post something relevant?

I thought it was pretty clear in my voting post, and the one just before it, why I was voting for Aronis.

He requested that I explain my stance on no lynching, which he has clearly misinterpretted, even after I have discussed it, at length.

So, he's either completely ignoring what I've said, and is intentionally asking a question that has already been completely answered, or he hasn't been reading anything.

Either way, I don't like it.

[Xkfyu]

Who said what? That we are getting a N1 result list? Or the ones that are acting like we're not?

Who made a correlation between NoLynch and N1 results?

As for the other part, I asked the same in my post.

@droog we are getting no where with discussion and will probably hit town, we get a huge amount of night info that can help discussion. There's a reason this setup generally starts with day 0

Town gains a huge amount tonight. Generally I would say lynch is fine but we are getting no where. Day 1 lynches almost always hit town. Look at previous iterations.

No, it's not 'clearly', lol.

This setup is less of a mafia game and more of a holy-shit-wtf-game.
so basically just trying to figure out what the hell is going on is a good part of why I offered nolynch

getting a N1 result list could be useful.

RM and shos have both tried to talk us into no lynching using "to get N1 results" as support for their arguments.

[Xkfyu]

That isn't the point and you know it.

Actually, I don't, because it definitely seemed to me like that that was a significant point of your argument.

But if I misunderstood, then by all means, explain to me how a no lynch would benefit us at this point, given what we already know about some people's roles?

[Xkfyu]

That isn't the point and you know it.

Actually, I don't, because it definitely seemed to me like that that was a significant point of your argument.

But if I misunderstood, then by all means, explain to me how a no lynch would benefit us at this point, given what we already know about some people's roles?

Unless your point WAS to actually soft claim Jailor. In which case, I would just consider you a named townie, unless there was a counter claim, and still not support a no lynch, because we are still virtually guaranteed to not lynch town today.

[Xkfyu]

It seems to me that most of the killin' third party types are motivated to be slitting scurvy throats tonight if and only if the pirate who be feeding the sharks is not one o' the organized scurvy types.

I think me mind be made up and that this discussion is lost in the doldrums.

VOTE: Rory

What did I miss? I thought Rory was a Survivor.

[Xkfyu]

In post 308, SnarkySnowman wrote:
I'm down with a massclaim. I am Busdriver.

Stop massclaiming.
That's how we started going down last time.
Also, I think this claim was actually fake.

Considering that this was the second time he has actually claimed, and that no one actually agreed to a mass claim, I'd say it's a pretty good bet that it's fake.

Then why are you not voting here?

Why should I be?

If you think that this is a fake claim it is pretty unlikely that it is coming from town.

Further, he has refused to engage on his terrible first fake claim, how it was supposed to help town and all around is being scummy.

I think it's even more unlikely that his fake claim is coming from Mafia. So, I think he's probably 3rd party. It's possible that he's a Jester, but that seems a bit too obvious.

He'll probably be sorted out soon regardless, so I'm not really interested in taking the chance that he is actually a Jester. Not today, anyways.

[Xkfyu]

Ye be thinkin' correctly, a survivor he most likely be.

Could be worse, which seems possible since the only position scary-clown pirate has been layin' down is "Please don't be making inky-pirate walk the plank."

Either way, 'tis a fine way to keep the sharks happy.

Sorry, my Pirate isn't great. I thought you were saying that Rory was a killing 3rd party.

Anyways, I see your point now, but Rory has already said that he would help us. Now, we obviously can't just trust him to keep his word, but it seems to me that he would have no choice but to help us, if we have a clear advantage.

So, I kinda feel like we should let him live to see what the night brings. If we do end up with a significant advantage, then he should be on our side. If not, we can always lynch (or possibly vig) him, if we think we need to.

Of course, the other side of that coin (doubloon?) is that if we come out of the night with a significant disadvantage, we might be screwed with Rory still alive.

I don't know. I'm just floundering now on whether or not to play it safe, or go with a more aggressive approach.

[Xkfyu]

Inky-pirate has absolutely no ability to "help us." So I have no idea what ye be thinking there. The only way he'll not be turnin' on us is if we never be near lylo, which is impossible on a voyage like this one.

The truth o' the matter be that every one of us who the captain cursed with non-scurvy deckhand duties be trying to row up a waterfall. The only way we have a prayer of winning this is if the scurvy killin' types be murdering each other. The best way to be makin' that happen is to remove the killin-proof survivin' type right now.

There be no "advantage" that be magically happenin' overnight. The very best we can be hopin' for is that the sun rises to greet us with a scurvy corpse delivered by the third party scurvy killin' type, and not too many dead limeys. If there be cthulhu-lovin' folk, then our ship be sunk regardless.

Well, assuming he is actually a Survivor, his single vote could potentially help us. And if we were to lynch Mafia today, then I think that would give us an advantage. And even more so, if we got even luckier and another Mafia was Nked (pretty unlikely, I know). We would then have a definite numbers advantage.

However, this being my first role madness game, it's entirely possible that I'm just talking out my ass and am way off base. I think it's better to just defer to the more experienced here. So, as long as we don't think Rory is a Jester or a Lynchee, I'm fine with lynching him.

Also, what is "cthulhu-lovin' folk?"

[Xkfyu]

The types that be dancin' round hopin' for dead cthulhu to rise again from the briny deep in his palace o' R'lyeh. They also be lovin' that fishy Dagon fellow.

They be dancin' round their idols, hopin' that cthulhu be opening the gate in reality so that the realm o' Yog-Sothoth be invadin' us; those types.

Bad news, they be.

I'm following you now.

UNVOTE: Aronis

VOTE: Rory

[Xkfyu]

The types that be dancin' round hopin' for dead cthulhu to rise again from the briny deep in his palace o' R'lyeh. They also be lovin' that fishy Dagon fellow.

They be dancin' round their idols, hopin' that cthulhu be opening the gate in reality so that the realm o' Yog-Sothoth be invadin' us; those types.

Bad news, they be.

I'm following you now.

UNVOTE: Aronis

VOTE: Rory

i dont like this
for someone trying to keep independent thoughts
which is something i get from your iso
i dont like you sheeping so blindly

Well, if you have indeed read my ISO, then you would have read this:

However, this being my first role madness game, it's entirely possible that I'm just talking out my ass and am way off base. I think it's better to just defer to the more experienced here.

And yes, I HAVE given this quite a bit of thought, and I've come to the conclusion that I can't find any holes in Yarr's approach. And since I fully believe that Rory is not town, I have no problems sheeping Yarr.

also i still think its worth noting
that if we lynch rory automatically for claiming
the other 2 neutrals will joint wit scum

This, I still don't get. That assumes that the neutrals will react emotionally and seek revenge on town, rather than in accordance with their win conditions.

Furthermore, it assumes that the neutrals will know for sure who the Mafia are, which I guess will inevitably happen, but I don't think it's much of a concern right now.

[Xkfyu]

You are right. We run too much of a risk lynching.

Are you still on this?

I'll ask you this again, what risk do we run with lynching Rory, a claimed 3rd party?

[Xkfyu]

If you believe this:

Town gains a huge amount tonight. Generally I would say lynch is fine but we are getting no where. Day 1 lynches almost always hit town. Look at previous iterations.

The odds of us hitting town are 7/13. That's incredibly low compared to most games. And info is only going to help us so much when 1-3 townies end up dead and we dont possess a majority anymore.

This is one of the few reasons I'm not voting aronis. This is a really town minded statement and it holds truth here.

then what was this about?

Why are you guys unvoting aronis?

[Xkfyu]

I wasn't fully read up when I made that post, and changed my mind somewhat.

I'm still kind of conflicted on him tbh. I have hard a difficult time reading aronis when I play with him.

Are you suddenly floundering on your Aronis read? I don't remember you being a flounderer.

[Xkfyu]

And yes, I HAVE given this quite a bit of thought, and I've come to the conclusion that I can't find any holes in Yarr's approach. And since I fully believe that Rory is not town, I have no problems sheeping Yarr.

what do you mean by 'yarr's approach'?

Lynching a claimed 3rd party instead of lynching someone who hasn't claimed yet, in hopes of lynching Mafia, but at the risk of lynching town.

[Xkfyu]

I wasn't fully read up when I made that post, and changed my mind somewhat.

I'm still kind of conflicted on him tbh. I have hard a difficult time reading aronis when I play with him.

Are you suddenly floundering on your Aronis read? I don't remember you being a flounderer.

Conflicted =/= floundering

You can talk to me about my Aronis read if you would like, or you could be scum and try to mis-represent me. Your choice.

Well, it certainly looked like floundering but ok, let's talk.

That I can recall, your vote was never on Aronis, nor did you express any concerns before your "why are you guys unvoting Aronis" question. Why were you so upset, at the time, that we were unvoting?

[Xkfyu]

floundering?
why floundering over "conflicted"?

and why does 'floundering' look scummy to you?

I'll circle back and address this once I'm done interacting with 3dr.

[Xkfyu]

I wasn't fully read up when I made that post, and changed my mind somewhat.

I'm still kind of conflicted on him tbh. I have hard a difficult time reading aronis when I play with him.

Are you suddenly floundering on your Aronis read? I don't remember you being a flounderer.

Conflicted =/= floundering

You can talk to me about my Aronis read if you would like, or you could be scum and try to mis-represent me. Your choice.

Well, it certainly looked like floundering but ok, let's talk.

That I can recall, your vote was never on Aronis, nor did you express any concerns before your "why are you guys unvoting Aronis" question. Why were you so upset, at the time, that we were unvoting?

I have been very busy lately, so not a lot of time to invest in mafia. I have been somewhat following the game, and noticed Aronis had dropped off from posting, something he does in his scum game, that I found fishy. I also remembered he acted like that in a recent towngame, so I was conflicted their, and wanted more posting from aronis to get a better read on him.

I did not want people to unvote him because the pressure got him to keep posting and also that I hadn't read the post that made me slightly town read aronis.

Why do you feel about aronis the way you currently do?

I can understand your read change after you read that townish post of his, but before that, if you wanted to keep the pressure on him, you could have just voted him yourself.

As for me, I do have a scum read on Aronis, as outlined in 346, and that's probably about the scummiest thing I've seen from anyone outside of claimed/suspected 3rd parties. So, if we wanted to try to lynch Mafia today, then he'd probably be my vote.

[Xkfyu]

floundering?
why floundering over "conflicted"?

and why does 'floundering' look scummy to you?

I'll circle back and address this once I'm done interacting with 3dr.

Circling back! You flounderer!

I don't like interruptions.

[Xkfyu]

On phone so I'll keep it succinct. Is anyone else disturbed by the fact that Xk is trying to strongarm himself in to a leader position? Because it feels fishy to me. Yarr's argument for Rory makes sense so I will probably compromise to there.

That's really strong wordage for my play, I think.

[Xkfyu]

floundering?
why floundering over "conflicted"?

and why does 'floundering' look scummy to you?

I'll circle back and address this once I'm done interacting with 3dr.

Dodging questions. Omfg, what a scumtell.

VOTE: xkfyu

Why are you trying to make me look scummy, regardless of whether I answer or not?

If I don't, then I look scummy for avoiding questions.

If I do, then it looks like I'm answering just because you called me out for it...which also looks scummy.

You know what, though? I don't really care, because I never avoid questions directed to me, because I never need to. So, will be going back to answer, just like I promised I would.

[Xkfyu]

floundering?
why floundering over "conflicted"?

and why does 'floundering' look scummy to you?

I don't think all foundering looks scummy. I think a lot of times, it could just be that the person is conflicted. The reason why I said that 3dr was floundering was because from the way it looked, I thought it was possible that he was adjusting his Aronis read based on the game state, instead of Aronis himself, and I wanted to question him on it.

[Xkfyu]

In post 393, Espeonage wrote:
On phone so I'll keep it succinct. Is anyone else disturbed by the fact that Xk is trying to strongarm himself in to a leader position? Because it feels fishy to me. Yarr's argument for Rory makes sense so I will probably compromise to there.

In post 394, randomidget wrote:
Unless Xk is a mason leader or something then it is def dodgy.

I do have an idea what his game is, but explaining it right now would be speculative (and might result a premature claim) – and if I'm right, it will be revealed on Day2 at latest.

I'm actually quite sure that you don't know, but that's mostly because there isn't really one.

What I've seen has convinced me that Yarr is town, and what they have said makes a lot of sense. I'll continue to talk it out about the best way to approach today but, like I said, I'm perfectly happy with sheeping Yarr, until I can find a good reason not to.

[Xkfyu]

And I'm very certain if he was town citizen he would have outright claimed it.

VOTE: Rory

I think you're probably right, and I actually feel even better about lynching him now that he's claiming that his Survivor claim was all just a big reaction test to draw out scum's votes.

Looks like an attempt to scare people off his wagon, to me.

[Xkfyu]

In post 469, Xkfyu wrote:
Why are you trying to make me look scummy, regardless of whether I answer or not?
If I don't, then I look scummy for avoiding questions.
If I do, then it looks like I'm answering just because you called me out for it...which also looks scummy.

As for my Wiki, this!
Aneninen#The_Regardless_Of_Card
Aaaaaaaaaaand FINALLY, I've managed to use this tell in a situation I haven't been involved in directly.

Interesting. It appears that you and I have similar opinions on tells. Specifically, the Regardless of Card (though, I didn't know it already had a name) and the Unexpected Gamestall. Both of which, I've successfully used in finding scum.

Aronis is still my biggest Mafia read, and if it wasn't for the fact that Rory is basically guaranteed not to flip town, then I would prefer to lynch Aronis. How would you feel about lynching him in D2?

[Xkfyu]

I doubt scums (if you meant Mafia by that) would care too much whether they're pushing a mislynch or a Third Party.

nope
but a 3rd party lynch is easy

when scum push a mislynch people will conflict
when scum push 3rd party nobody will say
"but wont you think of the poor anti-town!"

That being said, what's your opinion about those of us currently on the Rory wagon? Do you think any of us are Mafia? If so, then who?

[Xkfyu]

I doubt scums (if you meant Mafia by that) would care too much whether they're pushing a mislynch or a Third Party.

nope
but a 3rd party lynch is easy

when scum push a mislynch people will conflict
when scum push 3rd party nobody will say
"but wont you think of the poor anti-town!"

That being said, what's your opinion about those of us currently on the Rory wagon? Do you think any of us are Mafia? If so, then who?

you and snarky
sheeped some comments about you
snarky strikes me as disingenuous in everything
will elaborate if you want

anen seems town to me based on previous play
3dr is null
yarrgami gets a special privateer's pass

Fair enough. Talk to me about your read on me, please.

[Xkfyu]

Thanks for modding Netherspite. I enjoyed the short time that I spent alive in this game.

And well played, town.

No objections to releasing the scum PT from me, either.