Mini 489: Short and Sweet Mafia - Game Over

[Kinetic]

MOS, can you tell me who you got an innocent on last night to narrow down my own suspects after my re-read. I think I could tell you, with relative accuracy, who I think the scum are based on who your innocent is on.

Pretty much, I can guess that your innocent is either VitR or Xdaamno based on your current arguments and what I feel like I've gathered so far, right? (Leaning toward VitR being your investigation, since in my opinion he looks like the most likely scum, but you didn't even mention him.)

As far as I'm concerned the last scum is either Guardian or VitR/Xdaamno. Unless there is a Godfather-like role...

Anyway, I'll post my re-read notes, impressions, thoughts, suspicions, etc after I find out who MOS checked out.

[Kinetic]

OK Here is my vote count analysis.
KEY:

SCUM are RED

Uncontested (All but proven) claims are BLUE

Confirmed Townies are Green

"Investigated Innocents" are Purple

Page 2 Vote Count

Sarcastro

(3): VitaminR, CTD,

Albert

Albert

(3):

MoS

,

Pooky

,

trumpezia

Pooky

(1): Guardian
Guardian (1):

Sarcastro

trumpezia

(1): Xdaamno

Not voting (2):

Coron

,

Rishi

11 living, 6 to lynch

Page 3 vote count

Albert

(3):

MoS

,

Pooky

,

trumpezia

Sarcastro

(2): CTD,

Albert

CTD (2):

Sarcastro

, Guardian
trumpezia (1): Xdaamno
Guardian (1): VitaminR

Not voting (2):

Coron

,

Rishi

11 living, 6 to lynch

Holy Crap, It's Page 4 Vote Count

Sarcastro

(5): CTD,

Albert,

VitaminR,

Rishi

,

MoS

Albert

(2):

Pooky

,

Coron

CTD (1):

Sarcastro

trumpezia

(1): Xdaamno
VitaminR: (1) Guardian


Not voting: (1) trumpezia

11 living, 6 to lynch

Page 5 Vote Count

Albert

(4):

Pooky

,

Coron

,

CES

,

Rishi

CES

(3): CTD, VitaminR,

MoS

Coron

: (1)

Albert

trumpezia

: (1) Xdaamno


Not voting: (2) trumpezia, Guardian

Day 1 Final Vote Count

CES

(6): CTD, VitaminR,

MoS

,

Albert

, Guardian,

Rishi

Albert (3): Pooky,

Coron

,

CES

Kinetic: (1) Xdaamno

11 living, 6 to lynch

Sarc -1 First time

Sarcastro

(5): CTD,

Albert

, VitaminR,

Rishi

,

MoS

Albert -1

Albert

(5):

Pooky

,

Coron

,

CES

, Guardian,

Rishi

CES (Sarc) Lynch

CES

(6): CTD, VitaminR,

MoS

,

Albert

, Guardian,

Rishi

Ok, the juicy part: Analysis:

First off, I'm pretty sure that Pooky is not the godfather/scum at this point. He is still in Purple, and will stay that way until he is either killed or somehow proven innocent, but for now being purple is enough.

CTD I'm pretty sure is not scum, at this time. That being said, I'm also keeping in mind his whole battle with Sarc could have been distancing... That being said, I don't fully believe that, I'm just keeping it in mind

Xdaamno is very interesting. If you look in the vote counts, he's barely moved at all. I don't think at this time he is a good lynch choice, but for a vig choice he might not be too bad.

So that leaves myself, Guardian, and VitR. We can pretty much be sure that VitR and Guardian are not on the same team. But then again we can be pretty sure there are only 3 scum to begin with. I'm going to re-post the three near lynches, and use my tried and true

SCUMDAR!

Sarc -1 First time

Sarcastro

(5): CTD,

Albert

, VitaminR,

Rishi

,

MoS

Albert -1

Albert

(5):

Pooky

,

Coron

,

CES

, Guardian,

Rishi

CES (Sarc) Lynch

CES

(6): CTD, VitaminR,

MoS

,

Albert

, Guardian,

Rishi

Ok, On the first Sarc near lynch We see that currently the only unknown is VitR. In addition, at this time, both of the known scum are on Albert. My experience is that if a scum is lynched day one, AT LEAST 1 scum is also on the wagon.

Now we look at Albert's near mislynch. We notice that TWO scum are on this lynch already. I cannot see all three scum latching onto a mislynch. It seems too much honestly. This is most of the reason why I believe Pooky to be town. He is on Albert all day 1, and with the other two scum there it would be hard pressed for me to think he's scum. It also gives some (very few) points to Guardian possible Pro-Town.

Last we look at the Actual CES/Sarc lynch. Same 5 people as before, but with the addition of Guardian. His vote LOOKS like a scum bus. So he loses a lot of the points he gained from nearly mislynching Albert... As weird as that sounds, I think you understand what I mean.

But we also still have VitR here. In my opinion, this is the list of scum, in my head, from scummiest to most townish.

VitR
Guardian
Xdaamno

So I'm a little hesitent to vote VitR right this moment. Mainly because Guardian is on him and Guardian is currently the strongest bandwagon. I think I'll sleep on the options though.

[Kinetic]

EBWOP:

I don't take this EBWOP lightly (I didn't post a small post earlier to respond to Rishi. But I wanted to state two things real quick I forgot:

1) I meant to say mid-way that the four unknowns are Myself, VitR, Guardian, and Xdaamno. One should be lynched, the other vigged, one investigated. By tomorrow we might have a definitive scum team down and out.

and

2)

The reason I am not seeing VitaminR as scum is that CES named him as innocent in his fake claim. I don't think that a scum would point to his partner. It just seems too obvious. Of course, this could be a WIFOM argument.

The reason I didn't think this was mainly because CES hinted toward himself being insane, even tried to set it up with MOS being the "sane" cop. If CES lived, I would half expect him to come back with a "guilty", and then blame it on him being 'insane' when we lynched a townie. We then could lynch VitR, see he was "telling the truth", and he would be set.

Not saying he would do that, just it seemed to me during my re-read of what he might do.

[Kinetic]

Kinetic/Trumpezia

- In my opinion, he's the player who was most linked to Sarcastro. Trumpezia subtly defended Sarc early on, in a way that felt like scum trying to take some pressure off his buddy. I have stated back then that I had trouble seeing his standpoint about "having reservations" coming from a townie, and this is still true. However, Sarc

also

linked himself to Trumpezia, in a rather heavy handed way, and in my opinion, this is a point in favor of Kinetic being pro-town.

As for D2, I have to say Kinetic's play so far is the scummiest to me, he's behaving like I'd expect a scum to behave. I feel he's pushing the idea that Pooky may be a godfather too much at this point and in this situation, from being the first to mention the possibility to putting the investigated innocents in his vote analysis in quotation marks (which is really uncalled for in an analysis like that - Pooky is investigated innocent and whether that's accurate or not has absolutely no bearing on a vote analysis). I'm also disliking the fact that he's put himself as "confirmed townie" in that analysis, which just isn't kosher. I can easily picture him as scum in damage control mode, and think he should be first in line for a lynch/vigging.

First off, I'm pretty sure that Pooky is not the godfather/scum at this point. He is still in Purple, and will stay that way until he is either killed or somehow proven innocent, but for now being purple is enough.

...

Now we look at Albert's near mislynch. We notice that TWO scum are on this lynch already. I cannot see all three scum latching onto a mislynch. It seems too much honestly.

This is most of the reason why I believe Pooky to be town.

He is on Albert all day 1, and with the other two scum there it would be hard pressed for me to think he's scum. It also gives some (very few) points to Guardian possible Pro-Town.

Bolding added.

Yes, I express thoughts that Pooky

could

be godfather, but I really don't believe it, as is shown in my post. I'm not going to clear him, but as far as I'm concerned he's not even a possible lynch choice. The only way I could possibly see him as one is if we're down to three players. I'm not going to just say "I'm sure Pooky is town", because I am not sure.

I've taken enough PoliSci classes to know never say something for certain unless you mean it, and I've taken enough statistics classes to know that just because something has a low chance doesn't mean it has

no

chance. 10% doesn't mean 1 out of 10 times something happens, it means EVERYtime has a 10% chance. You could have the same situation come up 100 times, and only once could there be a godfather. Then again you could have it come up 100 times and have the godfather be investigated 80 times. Still only a 10% chance.

Unfortunately, I cannot defend the actions that were taken by my predecessor before he disappeared. Its frustrating, I just replaced BM in another game, and no matter what I say people call me scummy because of something I didn't do.

While I agree with most of CTD's analysis, I think he needs to look harder at Guardian and Xdaamno personally. I think he's on the right track with VitR, and I know my own position is far from confirmed, but I think he is needlessly eliminating possible suspects without truly examining them.

[Kinetic]

Wow... am I dead already? Before I could even defend myself? Wow.

[Kinetic]

EBWOP: Ouch, I posted too early... -_-

Vote: Kinetic

Uhm, content... hmm...

Xdaamno is very interesting. If you look in the vote counts, he's barely moved at all. I don't think at this time he is a good lynch choice, but for a vig choice he might not be too bad.

Though I hate to use the excuse, read any of my games, it's my playstyle (as scum or town, therefore it's null).

Wrong. In both 24 Mafia and Newbie 418, both of which I played as scum and you were town, you were COMPLETELY different in those games than in this game. That is why I said it was interesting.

Of course it's technically possible that Pooky is a godfather, but it's of no real concern today. Yet the fact that you can't even make a voting analysis (which should always be done straight-forward, since it's based entirely on facts) without casting some subtle doubt on his legitimacy (while simultaneously presenting yourself as "confirmed innocent") makes me think that you're already preparing for endgame. The only reason I can see for you to do such a thing is if you're already planning to attack him at some point and want to soften the ground now.

And I'm not "needlessly eliminating possible suspects", I am merely stating which players, in my opinion, need to die first in order to reach a speedy conclusion. If I happen to be wrong, the cop will hopefully shed some light on the other two characters. That last paragraph of yours sounds like you really don't want to die today.

Well that is how I do my voting analysis. It is straight forward and based entirely on facts. The game is closed set up and we don't

know

if there is a godfather, but I have only played one game on this site where there

wasn't

a godfather, and that was because in the theme a godfather wouldn't fit. So as far as I'm concerned there is one until proven otherwise, not vice versa.

As for not wanting to die... No I don't want to die. I'm sorry, I always thought suicide was, you know, wrong. I'm not going to self hammer, ever, so why wouldn't I want to live? But i also know that I'm on the list of people that are effectively "unconfirmed" and if I don't die today or tonight, I'm most likely going to be the lynch target tomorrow. Its really annoying to jump into a game where I

know

I'm going to die before I even say anything. But that being said I'm going to attempt to do what I can to help the town, even if no one will even take my posts at face value until AFTER I die.

Anyway, claim... umm I'm not going to lie, I'm Vanilla. Thats why I pretty much figured that I would be dead either today or tomorrow. So yea, hammer me if you will. I would hope you wouldn't but, meh, whatever.

Also,

Unvote:Vote Xdaamno

, I'm pretty sure, based on what I said earlier and how he just tried to play it off on a weak (and in my experience untrue) meta, I'm feeling he very well might be the scum.

[Kinetic]

Lynch Kinetic vig VitaminR seems like and OK plan; Kinetic seemed insincere to me in some of his last few posts, especially the one where he said:

While I agree with most of CTD's analysis, I think he needs to look harder at Guardian and Xdaamno personally. I think he's on the right track with VitR, and I know my own position is far from confirmed, but I think he is needlessly eliminating possible suspects without truly examining them.

Basically, that boils down to "so, let's get rid of the likely suspects -- and get rid of them in order starting with anyone but me".

That being said, his last two posts in reaction to being lynch -1 seem sincere... That thing I just quoted really irks me though.

Thats some OMGUSy suspicion there Guardian. You picked out the place where I thought you might be scum, and that was what you found suspicious? You stated earlier that even YOU think you look suspicious since the people you were linking yourself with were all scum. Its ok for everyone else to point that way, but when I do it its scummy? I think you're reacting to your "Kinetic enters games and lynches me" meta against me.

I agree with MoS's plan of lynch Kinetic Vig VitaminR inspect *someone*.

Well let me ask you this. Since you're one of the 4 up at the plate, how would you feel if you were the lynch or vig? I'm thinking you would be a little more against the plan. But anything where you survive seems like good for you.

I am pretty much willing to hammer Kinetic, but I wonder if we are being short sighted. We seem to be in a great position; but what if Kinetic and VitaminR turn up to be town, and one of our likely innocents is dead tomorrow?

We do want to end the day soon, but I want to let anyone who might oppose me hammering get a day or two to post their objection, especially Kinetic.

Basically, my worry is "What happens if, worst case scenario, Kinetic and VitaminR are town, and someone else dies too?"

This all sounds very scummy. Sounds like you're setting up for the next day after both of us turn up town...

But if that happens then its lynch Guardian and vig Xdaamno, or some combination there of that ends with those two people dead.

Are we

sure

that the Kinetic-VitaminR plan is our plan?

I am leaning yes on this, but I would like some discussion.

You mean you would like to pass the blame to someone else if you hammer, right?

Many players I think are pro-town are voting Kinetic, but I haven't really seen a case on him, and other than his recent insincere play that role hasn't been making me that suspicious.

Basically, I am being a bit paranoid, and I am not hammering because I don't want to cut off discussion if others have something to say//also think we should wait a bit.

That being said, the likelihood that at

least

three of the four players on Kinetic are town and the good logic behind our plan makes me almost willing to vote him.

hos: Kinetic

.

Guardian. BASIC MATH means that no matter how many votes I have on me, if X = Number of votes, then if we assume there is one scum left then X - 1 = the minimum number of townies. Until about 24 hours ago at least 2 townies were voting you. Does that make you more likely to be scum? Maybe, but since there were three votes on you it means that only one scum could possibly be on you.

Unvote

Originally I thought Guardian might just be a victim of circumstance with all the scum hanging around him... but after this post I'm going to have to re-read him and see if I might have misread.

[Kinetic]

Lynch Kinetic vig VitaminR seems like and OK plan; Kinetic seemed insincere to me in some of his last few posts, especially the one where he said:

While I agree with most of CTD's analysis, I think he needs to look harder at Guardian and Xdaamno personally. I think he's on the right track with VitR, and I know my own position is far from confirmed, but I think he is needlessly eliminating possible suspects without truly examining them.

Basically, that boils down to "so, let's get rid of the likely suspects -- and get rid of them in order starting with anyone but me".

That being said, his last two posts in reaction to being lynch -1 seem sincere... That thing I just quoted really irks me though.

Thats some OMGUSy suspicion there Guardian. You picked out the place where I thought you might be scum, and that was what you found suspicious?

Not at all. I picked out the place where you were like "well, I am happy you find VitaminR scummy, but how about you look at Guardian and Xdaamno too and anyone but me?"

It seemed like he was preemptively letting you two off the hook. Its not that I didn't understand his suspicions of me so much as I didn't understand him not having a tougher stance on you two.

You stated earlier that even YOU think you look suspicious since the people you were linking yourself with were all scum. Its ok for everyone else to point that way, but when I do it its scummy?

Because your phraseology makes it look like blatant self preservation and misdirection.

It has nothing to do with how I phrased it. It has everything to do with the fact that I'm the lynch target as of now and thus you are looking at me from a different perspective.

I think you're reacting to your "Kinetic enters games and lynches me" meta against me.

I think there is a chance you are town, but you are annoying as anything. I decide to

not

hammer you, and you spend 4/5 paragraphs attacking me.

*wink* You'll see what I was doing with you at the end of this post.

I agree with MoS's plan of lynch Kinetic Vig VitaminR inspect *someone*.

Well let me ask you this. Since you're one of the 4 up at the plate, how would you feel if you were the lynch or vig?

I'd ask for a case on me, and explain why others are better choices.

Oh wait, I *did* that.

The case on you is that you were basically buddying up with the scum, not always on purpose, and your moves on day 1 looked very scummy.

But the main reason, and this is the same for me, is that you don't have a good defensible position right now. You were on the wrong wagons all day, and then you switched on CES pretty much only when it was certain beyond most reasonable doubt that he was scum.

I'm thinking you would be a little more against the plan. But anything where you survive seems like good for you.

No, the plan is sound. What matters is selecting the two right people. I think it probably involves you, but I wonder if Xdaamno would be a better vig than VitaminR.

I half think you're just happy that in a game that involves the two of us I'm on the lynch block and not you . I think if someone else was lynched and I was vigged you wouldn't like it .

I am pretty much willing to hammer Kinetic, but I wonder if we are being short sighted. We seem to be in a great position; but what if Kinetic and VitaminR turn up to be town, and one of our likely innocents is dead tomorrow?

We do want to end the day soon, but I want to let anyone who might oppose me hammering get a day or two to post their objection, especially Kinetic.

Basically, my worry is "What happens if, worst case scenario, Kinetic and VitaminR are town, and someone else dies too?"

This all sounds very scummy. Sounds like you're setting up for the next day after both of us turn up town...

If by "setting up for the next day" you mean "planning ahead for the worst case scenario" -- oh wait, that isn't what you mean, you're trying to twist my words and make me look scummy.

No, I'm not twisting your words. Your words are you own. I was just interpreting them.

OK, I was twisting them a bit, but I needed a little more information from you.

But if that happens then its lynch Guardian and vig Xdaamno, or some combination there of that ends with those two people dead.

Should it really be that? Is Pooky 100% clear? Is CTD?

Glad I'm not the only person that is not afraid to talk about those things. Apparently questioning Pooky as possible is scum talk.

Are we

sure

that the Kinetic-VitaminR plan is our plan?

I am leaning yes on this, but I would like some discussion.

You mean you would like to pass the blame to someone else if you hammer, right?

I mean I'd rather lynch scum. How the hell does my indecision = passing blame? This would be a great opportunity for me to not lose as town, and I'd rather not throw it away off of rash decisions.

Scroll down more. Nothing really to add here.

Many players I think are pro-town are voting Kinetic, but I haven't really seen a case on him, and other than his recent insincere play that role hasn't been making me that suspicious.

Basically, I am being a bit paranoid, and I am not hammering because I don't want to cut off discussion if others have something to say//also think we should wait a bit.

That being said, the likelihood that at

least

three of the four players on Kinetic are town and the good logic behind our plan makes me almost willing to vote him.

hos: Kinetic

.

Guardian. BASIC MATH means that no matter how many votes I have on me, if X = Number of votes, then if we assume there is one scum left then X - 1 = the minimum number of townies. Until about 24 hours ago at least 2 townies were voting you. Does that make you more likely to be scum? Maybe, but since there were three votes on you it means that only one scum could possibly be on you.

OK.

Glad you agree with Algebra. I'll do something in Calc next time and see if you can follow. It should be fun.

Unvote

Originally I thought Guardian might just be a victim of circumstance with all the scum hanging around him... but after this post I'm going to have to re-read him and see if I might have misread.

Now who's setting other people up?

I try and give you a chance to defend yourself, and in some twisted way that makes you decide to attack me? It's like anti-OMGUS -- "Guardian, you didn't hammer me -- therefore you are suspicious."

That doesn't make any sense to me.

It kind of does actually. If you're scum trying to hide, after having a lot of suspicion on you day 1, trying to stay off the inevitable mislynch on day 2 is just good play.

Honestly, I would not be all that disappointed if you, me, Xdaamno, and VitaminR are dealt away with in order, as that most probably will lead to a victory.


Honestly, that BS about me trying to abdicate responsibility really makes me want to hammer you right now.

I don't think I've ever hammered before...

unvote

Good job you waited. You'll be rewarded at the end.

I had "vote Kinetic" in there on preview. I really, really want to right now, but objectively I think we should discuss for a few more days. I'd like to hear more what Xdaamno thinks, specifically.

Ah, you've hit the nail on the head now.

Kinetic, attacking the one person defending you doesn't even make sense. I'm fine with accepting responsibility for lynching you tomorrow if we do lynch you and that's wrong.

It does if that person is you.

You've been very scummy and antagonistic, and if I am wrong and you're town, I am wrong for the right reasons.


I liked your thoughts on Xdaamno -- now all of a sudden when I express suspicion of you, you decide to unvote him and start a re-read?

I really don't think I've been scummy since I've entered the game. Antagonistic... maybe, but I think my "scummy-ness" is more of a factor of the position of which I entered the game and not anything else.

Also,

Unvote

.

Right now Guardian, I am in a very unique position. I'm the sword of the town. Because all of my suspicions will be re-evaluated after I'm lynched. I'm being given a free license to be scummy to achieve rises out of players and evaluate them before I die. And who better then to stab with that sword but you Guardian? I know you best, and I know how to tell when you're town. I'm pretty sure you are now, but I needed to be sure before I said anything.

And the easiest way to be sure is to make you angry at me and see what you say. Most of what you said was what I was hoping for. Even some of the attacks. lol.

Vote:Xdaamno

Xdaamno/VitR is the right play in my opinion. The fact that they both moved so fast onto me was more than suspicious. One of them is the last scum.

[Kinetic]

Rishi: Let me ask you this- You are unconfirmed as town, but you know you are town. Would you just lay back and die or would you at least try and get the scum to die first?

I agree, the best play is to lynch/vig among the 4 "unconfirmeds". I also believe that I shouldn't be lynch/vigged because I know I'm vanilla. So I'm going to attempt to get the person who I think is the most likely to be scum to be lynched, and the person who I think is second on my list vigged.

Will I blame you if you choose me as one of those? No. Do I think even if I'm not chosen that I will be chosen tomorrow. Yes I do.

But until I'm dead I'm going to do everything I can for the town, even if what I say won't be taken at face value by the town until after my demise.

[Kinetic]

If we choose, or at least discuss, the vig kill, this gives the person who is the target time to defend himself. It also does a few other things.

I think directing the vig kill is a good idea. We don't need to direct the cop though. As long as he knows who the vig is taking out, he can avoid that person. In addition, if we only choose one of two people for the cop to investigate, and the same for the vig, the scum wins. If we choose one for the vig, and leave 3 open to the cop, the scum have a much worse chance at picking off the investigation target, if that is their plan.

[Kinetic]

Rishi: That isn't a pro-town state of mind. MOS has the right idea, and that is what I ascribe to. I will not lay back, and it is my opinion, even if I am lynched or impaled by you tonight with that lance of yours, that I will get everything I have to say out. That way, if I am unfortunately killed, everything I pointed out can be used by the town to win. This game is NOT open-shut just yet. We are in a good position. It is not good play to blow it just because we think its a sure thing.

I think its obvious, but my top two candidates are Xdaamno and VitR.

I've already stated why, but the basic reasons are that: Xdaamno is acting completely different than when I ever played with him, and when I confronted him on it he claimed that this is how he always is. That isn't the truth.

For VitR, of all the players he's the only one I don't have any trust in. Not in his opinions, judgments, and I'm pretty sure there was a lot more that I said earlier, but I can't quite remember it all.

Third on my list, is CTD. Note, there is a BIG distance between my suspicions on CTD and VitR. He's only third because I no longer think that Guardian is scum.

Fourth on my list is Guardian, mainly because despite what I think, he's still in the "unconfirmed" pool.

Fifth is Pooky, only because despite me thinking he's innocent, and even being investigated as such, it is not 'impossible' for him to be guilty. Its just a technicality, and at this stage of the game, is virtually pointless, but I feel like I should still point it out for later, if the game lasts that long.

Sixth is Rishi. The only reason he's so low is because he's got an uncontested power role right now. I don't really agree with many of his opinions on game theory. He hasn't been very scummy overall though, and just because his game theory is different from mine doesn't mean he's scum. Just that we disagree on how the game should be played.

Seventh is MOS. Uncontested Power Role. Successfully contested scum trying to claim his position. So far he has played smart and well. I don't see any reason at all to think he is scum.

So that's how I see the game.

[Kinetic]

Since I know Ibaesha will post if someone doesn't... We're waiting on Xdaamno and Vit R specifically. Please respond both of you. We'd also like to hear from CTD and everyone else, but they're not as urgent.

I was all ready to make a post and everything! Do you guys want prods or what?

[Kinetic]

Told you I was town Rishi .