Mini 490: Speed Mafia - GAME OVER.

[Sonicpulsar]

Vote: Mr. Pigg

Last person to confirm.

[Sonicpulsar]

yes it was. and i agree with HeH that i was expecting me to be the target.
ah well, not complaining. lol

BM

Arrogance, and on page 1 no less. Wow.

I'll wait for more players to check in before I say too much else. Someone will inevitably come out annoying or stupid and we can go from there.

[Sonicpulsar]

Sweet Enola Gay, distad, you've alrady unvoted and revoted 3 times, followed by another unvote. I know this is a quick game, but this seems very scummy to me.

Battle Mage is the only other person to have unvoted more than once. But he's also in the heat of it all, so it's more understandable but still no less scummy because the reason he's in the heat is his own self-proclaimed importance.

Do we have any obvious lurkers thus far? Lurking is far less useful in this game due to the speed with which it will be played, but I'll never underestimate the lurking tendencies of those who want to stay alive most (power roles and scum).

[Sonicpulsar]

I tend to meta-game as well, based on people who need replaced, etc. It's my opinion that people tend to do the following:

Scum/Power Roles: More inclined to lurk. They don't want to put themselves out there too much for fear of screwing up or saying something stupid. Thus, when given a situation where they don't feel like they can contribute much to the game (the last few posts), they'll tend to lurk rather than post. There's always the classic Lurking in Plain Sight as well. But I tend to find those players just annoying.

Vanilla: More likely to need a replacement. For whatever reason, people don't like to play vanilla. I find it the most entertaining (read: challenging) simply because you don't have any gadgets at your disposal. They're also more likely to be the "strong townies" simply because they tend to feel they have less to lose for the town if they screw up.

Now, I absolutely realize everyone and their sister can think up 50 people who these don't fit, no matter the circumstances, but I'm talking about generalities and tendencies.

/soapbox

At this point, I don't think we can read much into the two guys who might get replaced. There just hasn't been enough to go on.

[Sonicpulsar]

I guess I'm just waiting to respond to what others say at this point. I don't really have anything entirely original to contribute that I already haven't. I agree, it'd be great to have the extension go until a day or two AFTER we get replacements.

[Sonicpulsar]

From what I've gathered, SPAG does this often. As in, no one is surprised. Why the hell was he allowed to mod a game then? His last post was August 31, a full WEEK ago. Seems very unacceptable, especially considering he gave no warning.

Mind you, every time I say something like in IRL, turns out the person was in a car accident or something similar. So let me just say I hope everything's alright with him.

[Sonicpulsar]

Thanks for joining us Theo, it's greatly appreciated.

Unvote

til I hear from the new guys.

[Sonicpulsar]

Dammit, every time. I talk bad about someone and it turns out it was serious. I hate it for SPAG. I hope he gets better.

On to the game. I'm not getting a whole lot of content from this game thus far. I've seen far more progressive day 1's and I just don't see what BM is seeing. His arrogance is a bit annoying but other than that, I don't necessarily see a case on him.

No one has really said anything particularly stupid or illogical thus far. That's what I tend to look for and jump on. At the moment, I'm not lurking but I don't really have a lot to say.

I don't really see the case ChronX has on d3sisted so I'll throw out a

FOS: ChronX

to get some discussion going. I had no read on the guy he replaced so this is based on very little.

I'm gonna

FOS: Atticus

too for claiming there was real content in proceeding pages. I just don't think this is true.

[Sonicpulsar]

Yowsers. So I went on a mini-vacation with my parents (Lake of the Ozarks) where we were supposed to have wireless internet access that was really "come to the office where we have a 10 ft wireless range and you have to be outside." Thus, I couldn't really post since Friday night, I apologize.

As to the pressure, whatever. Various people have been lurking at various times. I lurked thru most of the first part of this game (first 7 pages or so) because there was fairly useless meta-gaming going on. While I admire the work some people put into it, I don't think we'll garner much from it, particularly with BM's style of play.

My first instinct is to vote for CKD for his fairly illogical reasons for voting for me, but I don't wanna OMGUS vote him. But I'll go ahead and say right now, I don't like his style of play.

I'll hold off on voting to see how people respond to the fact that I'm was lurking on purpose. We have ~3 days to come to a decision.

[Sonicpulsar]

EBWOP Whoops, sorry, I meant I wasn't lurking on purpose, mistype.

[Sonicpulsar]

I don't see at ALL where I made comments that are generic and "seem" like they're contributing when they're really not. Mind quoting those for me?

Second, I don't see where I was breadcrumbing. I made my comments several days ago (Post 71 - August 28th, Post 99 - August 30th) and then proceeded to not post over the course of 3 days (September 14-16) with my last post being on the 14th (post 175). I realize this is a speed game but I'm guessing there are a couple of people who are far more lurkerish than myself. You're giving me too much credit that I'd lay down my plans 2 weeks ago (for a speed game nonetheless, with several replacements) so that I could cover my tracks later.

Contentwise: For once, I'm not picking up on much of a scum vibe from anyone. Typically (at least for me), someone makes an ass of themselves and/or screws up logically. HeH has been making theory after theory and backing it up with relatively good logic, but that fact that he's keeping at it so hard makes me think he's over-compensating.

I think it'd be a stupid idea to bus on Day 1. The fact that people think I was getting bussed by CKD seems fairly ludicrous. How could you think a first vote on me was a bus? If anything, it'd be classified as a distancing move, not a bus. That's an example of where Distad is using bad logic, which I usually associate with scum.

FOS: HeH and Gorgon

for the relatively illogical conclusions of me being a power role based on my posts about lurking and then my proceeding to lurk. This seems like quite a stretch to me. And, if you really are townies, why the hell would you point it out in the first place? I don't have a huge issue with it, I'm just curious why you thought it deserved to be pointed out.

[Sonicpulsar]

Dammit, I'm getting people confused because I keep getting interrupted every 2 minutes in the lab I'm teaching and trying to post in. Yes, Distad has made it clear that he didn't think it was bussing. I took Post 254 out of context when making my earlier post. I apologize.

I wasn't clear in my FOS of HeH in the above post. I FOSed Gorgon for the above reason (his illogical conclusions of me being a power role). I FOSed HeH because of Post 253 where you claimed I was setting myself up for a Cop claim later in the game.

[Sonicpulsar]

HeH, you and I have different perceptions of "active" and "content", especially on Day 1. I wasn't really lurking before this weekend (which wasn't my fault and the only "lurking" I've admitted to). I was making posts before Friday on a fairly regular basis and trying to provide content. You can probably count on 1 hand the number of posts I've made that are less than 5 lines long.

Gorgon, the fact that you

were

reaching so far to figure out my play style or whatever by latching onto the "breadcrumbs" made me suspicious. You seemed to latch on to it rather quickly. The second paragraph of Post 259 I think adequately explains why I think it was crap logic.

I'm no longer lurking (despite the fact it was unintentional) and I've stated why the theory that I was breadcrumbing is silly (and that you now agree with), yet you're still voting for me. On top of this, you're asking me to explain an FOS on you after I've already explained. Do I need to go into more detail for you? I'm not sure I can since I basically said everything that I needed to say.

All of this confirms my FOS on you.

[Sonicpulsar]

I was replying to the fact that Xdaamno was a terrible player and posting easily 2x as much as anyone else in that game. Coupled with the fact that he posted basically 0 content and you're left with the fact that he was either 1. Bad townie contributing little 2. Scum over-compensating. Since neither of these situations was good for the town, I felt the need to point out as much. Turns out he was lynched for a different reason. I'll also point out that that was my third post in a thread I replaced into. viewtopic.php?t=5415&postdays=0&postord ... &start=325

If you take a look at the other game I'm playing now, you'll realize I tend to start most of my games stating the same thing so everyone knows where I'm coming from at the start. I'm consistent.

[Sonicpulsar]

Son of a...I'm making an ass of myself and quickly. I have the FOS on HeH and Gorgon, and then in making my argument against Gorgon....again....I lapsed and used my argument for HeH against Gorgon. My bad, I apologize for my obvious confusion. Perhaps I should learn my lesson and not post while trying to teach a lab. Seriously, I get a question every 2-3 minutes and get no more than one sentence typed at a time.

I'll agree, it's a dead issue now. I'll quit harping on it. Although I must say I don't feel like I've been pursuing it so much as responding to what others have been saying. Either way, I'm done with it.

[Sonicpulsar]

Mr.PiGG, can we expect any further contribution to the game, specifically in the next 24 hours or so? Or should we take post 312 as your contribution to the game til the deadline?

[Sonicpulsar]

I'm inclined to vote for PiGG. He has been spotty at best; he's at the same level as d3, in my eyes; and he's rejoining after a long absence just in time to put d3 at -1. And how does he defend it? "Pretty much for all the reasons everyone else has said." Pretty much? That implies that there's something more. Maybe you're bussing a scumbuddy? No one else has said that...

I'll look back to find exactly the minute that the deadline comes and I will see how much time we really have. If it comes down to it and I have to choose between two people that I think are equally scummy, I'd rather pick the person that is 'done' with the game than the person who will be back on Friday.

Good grief.

Vote: Mr.PiGG

On top of the quote above, I'd like to pressure him into defending himself (putting himself out there a bit).

[Sonicpulsar]

I'm not entirely sure I've ever read or participated in a game where a power role blatantly claimed on Day 1. I'll have to analyze the implications to the game (which is different than what I'm experienced in due to the "speed" factor). Overall, I'm a sad panda. Seems like we (read: CKD) has set up the first couple of NKs for the mafia.

For now, remember LAL.

Unvote

[Sonicpulsar]

So wow, lots of posting. This close to the deadline, I think we should focus on deciding who's the best to lynch for information. Pigg and CKD are right out due to the mason claims.

I agree with BM's analysis of Chronx.

I disagree with the analysis of Gorgon. Gorgon strikes me as someone who's unwilling to definitively stick himself out there for fear of screwing himself over later. I might be inclined to believe this is due to scumminess, but he seems to have been legitimatley scumhunting while doing this. It's not often I've read/seen this, but I actually believe this is the case now. Gorgon flipflops so much, I can't say whether or not I agree with him from post to post though. Overall, not a huge asset to the town but I don't believe he's the best play for the town now. I find it amazing that you believe he's the best play.

I disagree with BM's analysis of Distad. Especially compared to Gorgon, I believe Distad is scummier and would be a better play over Gorgon. For some of the same reasons you claim Distad seems very townie to you, I feel make him scummy. Seems he's trying too hard to be pro-town. But I will admit I'm not overly great at reading strong townies vs scum appearing as strong townies. Perhaps you're right and meta-gaming Distad could be of use.

Overall, I think it's too late to start a new wagon on someone else with the little discussion that would follow. Because of this, I'm forced to think D3ssisted is our best play simply because he's been discussed at length. I think his lynch will yield the most information.

Vote: D3ssisted.

His lack of a defense is just inexusable considering his circumstances.

[Sonicpulsar]

I'll be gone, starting now, until Saturday afternoon.

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, no one else has seemed to respond to the game so I'll start off by saying woohoo, we lost a vanilla townie and not a power role! And a townie who wasn't posting much anyways.

All things considered (a favorite program of my by the way), I'm happy, although thoroughly distressed at the idea that one of the supposed masons wasn't NKed. It's already hurting my head, but the WIFOM implications are vast. I'll have to think on it a bit to see why they weren't killed and what it implies. It would have been so much easier if they would have just killed one of the masons...

[Sonicpulsar]

I tend to be suspicious of these happy horseshit kind of posts. He even comments that the dead included someone not posting much anyways....wasn't he on the candidate list for potential scummy lurkers, just yesterday? Maybe we've gotten through to him and he is opting instead for contentless activity...ie lurking in plain site.

The reason lurking is bad is that it protects scum from saying anything or making analysis that can be used against them. If SP comes back with something thoughtful, that first post won't bother me so much.

I'll never understand why stating happiness over the loss of a vanilla during the NK is seen as scummy. Because of this, I've never subscribed (or is it prescribed?) to it. I'm genuinely happy that Raffles wasn't a power role. We need all the power roles alive for as long as possible to help us.

I don't think I'll ever have the time and patience to make tons of small posts multiple times per day. The best I can do is make a few long posts when I can. It's up to you to determine if I'm actually providing content.

HeH is near the top of my list. He keeps proclaiming himself town, coupled with his theories where he makes seemingly innocent assumptions.

1) The mason claim is bogus and BM's innocent list is accurate. This would mean the scum are CKD, Mr.PiGG and either Gorgon or Atticus.

2) The mason claim is legitimate and one of BM's innocent list is inaccurate. In this case the scum are Gorgon, Atticus and one of distad, ChronX and Sonicpulsar).

Both of these scenarios work off the assumption that both Battle Mage and I are innocent, which I think is the case. Well, I know I am innocent and I'm leaning that way for BM as well. And it also relies heavily on Battle Mage's innocent list. I'm not sure I buy that, but I'd like to hear his reasons for listing those three. He was very sure based on his language.

At least to me, some people are putting way too much weight in what BM has to say. I believe he's genuinely scumhunting, but I can't tell if it stems from a desire to misdirect or actually help the town. I haven't seen any clues that push me one way or the other. Although, for once (I'm shocked and amazed), I have to agree with CKD on calling BM out on calling for the cop. I feel this is way too early in the day. BM, are you afraid of a quick lynch by the scum?

As has been said, I don't have a good feel for Atticus, he simply has posted enough recently.

Post 390 still holds for me. I haven't cared for Gorgon's willingness to read in to what Raffles did during Day 1 looking for some gems, but I don't think it's scummy.

I am openminded to considering a new candidate for today's lynch.

Did I miss the dicussion on when we decided who is and who is not a candidate? This comes across as scummy to me (as in he'd discussed with his scum buddies who they were gonna go after). I think this may have been an inadvertent slip up on his part.

FOS Chronx

And to just go ahead and state it for the record, I believe the mason claims are true. Despite the WIFOM, I think it most likely that they're simply both masons and both town.

Did I leave anyone out? I think I at least mentioned everyone in the game.

[Sonicpulsar]

CKD, I tried to make a funny at the fact that I've generally disagreed with your logic.

Chronx, I didn't realize you were basically stating that you were now contemplating going for someone other than the masons. In other words, I wasn't going with the assumption of CKD's argument that you'd immediately gun for the masons today. I should have, but didn't think of it. Thank you for showing me politely and not blowing up at my mistake.

[Sonicpulsar]

CKD, BM, quit bickering like school children. It's not good for the game.

I'm not seeing the case on Gorgon. Well, let me rephrase that, I'm not seeing the case on Gorgon compared to other people. Seems like others are acting similarly but arousing less suspicion (considering he's at -2 now). I totally understand the gut feeling that can be attributed some votes but I simply not seeing it here. Simply put, I don't think Gorgon is our best play today.

I'm still getting a scum vibe from Distad but apparently I'm the only one.

Atticus, if you're seriously going to go with things you said back at post 172, I'll have to re-examine your play.

His lack of a defense is just inexusable considering his circumstances.

I mean really, how can you say my lack of defense is scummy when I'm on V/LA?

What the hell does V/LA mean?

[Sonicpulsar]

Here's the end-of-D1 vote analysis I promised...

Player: vote

Gorgon: d3sisted, MrPigg, unvote
Distad: MrPigg, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted, unvote, d3sisted
Sonicpulsar: MrPigg, unvote, d3sisted
ChronX: d3sisted, MrPigg
Atticus: d3sisted
HeH: d3sisted
BM: Gorgon

From that, I'm seeing Distad, Gorgon, Sonicpulsar as possible scum (in that order).

Another point of interest is ChronX's most recent vote on Gorgon. By my count, that is the fourth following/BW vote he has cast this game. That exceptionally suspic if you ask me.

FoS: distad, ChronX

My original vote on Pigg was purely random (on page 1 I believe). Just thought I'd point that out.

[Sonicpulsar]

Content will be incoming tomorrow morning some time. Sorry for my lack of posting.

[Sonicpulsar]

Congratulations HeH at pulling every wishy washy comment I've made in the game thus far. After 23 pages of posts, I'm fairly confident I could pull 5 quotes from anyone who's active that make them sound similar to how you've painted me (and most of mine come from obvious things changing (the fact I wasn't lurking on purpose) or new guys joining the game). At least I blatantly state these things rather than simply lurk or say nothing. Also, as you've said yourself, I try to cover my bases when I screw up on something obvious, which I'll do now.

I'd forgotten that I was near the end of the wagon on Pigg because he was refusing to defend himself and put that vote on to pressure him (lot of good that did). Within a day or so (I'm not gonna check exactly since I don't care overly much) CKD made the mason claim and I immediately retracted my vote.

Oh, and unless I haul ass, I doubt I'll get this posted by noon, which means I lied again when I said I'd have content in the morning. I apologize.

As for Distad, ever since the end of Day 1, I've been getting this vibe that Distad is trying just a bit too hard to appear protown. I'm not entirely sure I can quote a post illustrating it, but I get an overall ungenuine feeling from his posts. As was stated a few pages ago, he was wishy washy toward the end of Day 1 but I don't read that as too much of a scumtell. But, as I've stated before, I seem to be a vast minority on this.

I can't get a good read on BM, he's a slippery one. He tends to do a very good job of covering his tracks but the whole cop claim fiasco has me worried. I'm not sure how to read it. Best case, he remains neutral in my eyes. Worst case, I'll use it as a reason to vote for him eventually.

I honestly need to do a reread on Gorgon. I stand by my comment from post 515. I just don't see the case against him as opposed to others. I've been getting a scumhunting, townie vibe from him.

In response to D3ssisted, did I miss the post IN THIS GAME where you stated you were on V/LA? Honestly, I may have missed it. From what I saw (quick scan) your last post before you were lynched was post 238 on Sept 17th. The last "day" where you actually contributed to the game was Sept 14/15th. The lynch happened on the 21st.

I still buy into the mason claims.

Chronx, if I'm reading your post 514, are you saying I wasn't voting at the deadline? I'm fairly certain I was voting for D3ssisted. In fact, I think he quoted my reason for voting him in post 503. I'm a bit confused at this point. I need to go back and look at Chronx's voting pattern.

[Sonicpulsar]

Upon further reflection (yep, like 5 minutes or so), I'm just not comfortable with HeH anymore. I'd rather this not look so much like an OMGUS vote, it's really not but the straw that broke the camel's back is his attack at my wishy washiness. To emphasie this point, I do the following:

Vote: HeH

[Sonicpulsar]

I consider it an attack when someone quotes me 7 different times and seemingly makes an analysis supported by those quotes when the same could be done of just about anyone. In other words, I could probably take just about anyone who's posted a fair amount, quote them 7 times (with very little context and one-liners), make an analysis, and come to whatever conclusion I originally set out to make. Basically, you're doing the classic "posting a lot but contributing little content". I'll be the first to argue that what "I" think is content, others might not see as content but your post 555 just strikes me as particularly contentless (but maybe I am overreacting because it was targeted at me, seem both Chronx and HeH think so).

My retaliation is mostly as a result of your analysis of me. Upon reflection, I got more of a scum vibe coming from your analysis because it was so....spineless (for lack of a better word).

[Sonicpulsar]

EBWOP: This does not clear him, IMO. My biggest hit on him was that he had no content in his posts, which appears to be changing.

Interesting. We've come to opposite conclusions. What did you find particularly....contentful from his latest posts?

Am I being blinded by the fact that HeH's analysis was of me?

[Sonicpulsar]

Perhaps I used the word retaliation incorrectly. Let me rephrase that post as

"My vote is mostly as a result of your analysis of me and the poor logic/tactic (in my eyes) you used. Upon reflection, blah blah blah".

Does that help you get past my earlier statement about not OMGUS?

Top 2:
HeH
Distad

Atticus and BM as a close seconds.

[Sonicpulsar]

CKD, BM, quit bickering like school children. It's not good for the game.

[Sonicpulsar]

The other part of my alleged top 3 isn't 2 people, its 1. I am actually fairly certain that EITHER Heh OR SP is a scum. Not both, as I have been clear about. I can't figure out how to read the interaction, but I am convinced that one is scum, one isn't, and both know the alignment of the other.

So are we to assume you also think either HeH or I are the cop?

To be entirely honest, I can't make my mind up now whether to believe the Mason claims or not. My knee jerk reaction is to believe it since it would have been such a huge gamble on CKD's part to claim mason on D1 if it wasn't true. BUT, upon further reflection (posts 626 and 631 in particular) I'm no longer as sure of myself. CKD has done a poor job of making himself out to be the type of person who would NOT take a huge gamble like that D1.

It's been said already, but if we mislynch today, we can't mislynch again (with a few power role assumptions). And, as Chronx said, at some point we need to know the validity of the Mason claims BEFORE lylo. Which basically means we need to hit scum today and then analyze that person's possible link to the masons. If we see there's no link, the masons will be mostly in the clear. If there is a link (bussing and/or distancing), we'll have this whole argument again, only it'll be at lylo. Is there any error in my logic? Most of this has been said already but some of it was merely implied and not fleshed out.

Oh My F*cking God.
When this game is over, remind to officially whip yo ass for trying to screw it over for the rest of us. Srsly, you AREN'T certain i am scum, because i am NOT. Its not as if you are a cop who has a guilty on me, because I AM TOWN. Now what you think you have, is a great case to vote for me, based on my comments during the game. But tbh, it is BS. Whether or not it makes sense in your own head, it is WRONG. When you see that, you are going to be totally ashamed, but not half as ashamed as you would be if you actually go through with this 'lynch BM, and if he is town, lynch me next' theory. Literally, that will cost us the game. You seem to be feeding the mafia everything they could possibly hope for-by offering them 2 consequtive mislynches on a plate.

Posts like that aren't fun to read. It's the equivalent of arguing with someone who refuses to not yell. I'm not saying it's a scumtell, but you don't need to ram down our throats that you're "Srsly, you AREN'T certain i am scum, because i am NOT." and "because I AM TOWN." Totally unnecessary comments.

I think we should continue discussion for a few more hours before we ask anyone to claim. I'd actually lean toward HeH claiming at this point and not just because I'm voting for him.

As for Atticus, I guess I missed him in my analysis from post 556. I'm actually surprised no one commented on this fact and/or jumped all over me for it, despite it being an honest mistake. Basically, I don't get a scum vibe from him. He's not posting but I don't get the sense of scumminess from his lurking.

Huh. Never mind, Gorgon. My suspicion is away from you for now.

I like that he agrees with me that Gorgon is not the play for today. Well, perhaps I'm putting words in his mouth but his suspicion is away from Gorgon at the moment. Conclusion: Neutral, too little to go on to be definitive.

[Sonicpulsar]

I did not target you BM.

I'll add some content later today, maybe within the next 30 minutes. It depends on how this homework assignment goes.

[Sonicpulsar]

EBWOP

For clarity's sake, I did not target BM on N2.

[Sonicpulsar]

I don't really have much to add right now. I'm interested to hear what BM has to say now. I'll be able to give any new posts a good look while I'm in lab tomorrow.

[Sonicpulsar]

I simply want everyone to say yes or no to the question:
Did you target BM on Night 2?

No. Can I make it any clearer than that? Before, I realized I left my response somewhat ambiguous and wanted to clarify (and I said as much).

[Sonicpulsar]

Just to confirm what Chronx just said, I'm here and accounted for. I'm waiting to see how this pans out. I can understand BM being careful, but at some point (and we've reached it) I have to wonder if BM isn't holding back on purpose in hopes of others spilling the beans first so he can tweak his response accordingly.

[Sonicpulsar]

So wow, we have a lot of power roles. Let me try to make a breakdown for reference on the conclusions I'm gonna make.

12 People:
2 Vanillas (d3ssisted 1, Raffles)
2 Masons (d3ssisted 2, CKD)
1 Doc (=Confused=)

We're left with 7 people, 3 of which I'm assuming are mafia.

Wow, this is getting fairly insane. We have the following thus far:

BM - Jack of All Trades
Gorgon - Roleblocker
Chronx - Tracker
HeH - Cop
Distad - Vanilla
Sonicpulsar - Vanilla
Atticus - Unknown

So yeah, I'm vanilla. That leaves Atticus to claim.

My first instinct would be to assume those claiming vanilla are most suspect without even looking at posts. But that'd leave myself, Distad and Atticus. HeH said Distad came up innocent but I'm actually inclined to not believe his claim.

I think HeH may be scum trying to look like a cop and made two "innocent" claims on Distad (who up until today most people saw as town) and BM (I feel like HeH is trying to win BM to his side). Quick conclusion: I think HeH may be scum. I'd like to hear what Chronx has to say and if it credits or discredits HeH in any way.

I don't have a good read on Distad yet. I'm actually leaning toward HeH and Distad being scum together and HeH's claim was a method of distancing himself from Distad. I'm not entirely sure. I haven't gotten a good vibe from Distad all game.

Next, I'm inclined to believe Chronx's claim. His claims seem legitimate and he's presenting them in a believable fashion. He's not being dodgey or indecisive.

I haven't liked BM's particular style of play this day. It makes me highly suspect but it's definitely not enough for me to vote for him yet. I'm very inclined to believe either him or HeH are scum. I don't it's likely they're both scum. If they are, they've done a great job of distancing themselves in my opinion.

I think Gorgon is telling the truth. He was one of the first to claim and his roleblocks have been backed by what others have said. I'm inclined to follow my original instinct and believe Gorgon's town.

That leaves Atticus. To be honest, he's lurked so much it's hard to really make a good call on him at all. Because of this (and it's convenient for me), I'm gonna say he's the third mafia member with HeH and Distad. Basically, HeH seems scummier than BM at the moment and I don't see a connection between Distad and BM.

So, that's my theory right now. To reiterate, I think HeH, Distad and Atticus are the scum. I'm far from willing to vote at this point, but I wanted to put my thoughts out there and see what others think. Have I made any logic mistakes? I tried to write down on a piece of paper everyone's claim and their implications and then compare that with my theory to see any discrepancies. It looks good to me.

Upon rereading this post, I thought it might be wise to go ahead and state some things people may ask about. If I'm wrong about Atticus, I'm not entirely sure who the third person would be. My claim that Atticus is scum is more out of convenience than anything. Assuming HeH and Distad are scum, I don't see a third link for them besides the lurker.

If I'm wrong on both HeH AND Atticus, I'm at a loss. It'd leave me with BM and practically no one else. I'd have to rethink this entire day's plays.

[Sonicpulsar]

Holy shit, I ate lunch with my wife and it took me over an hour to make/finish my post. As of the above post, I hadn't read anything past post 857. Just an FYI.

[Sonicpulsar]

In light of recent revelations, I'll make another person by person analysis.

To start off, I'm a bit dumbfounded by Chronx's play. I legitimately thought he was telling the truth and HeH was probably lying. I no longer think this is the case. I'm usually one of the first to say LAL but in this case, I'm just not sure.

Thus, this leads to whether or not I believe HeH's claim. I do. This implies that his investigations are legit, which should clear BM and/or Distad unless one is a godfather or perhaps HeH is an insane or naive cop. All are unlikely, but one of them has to be true. Why? Under the assumption that there are 3 mafia, if Chronx, HeH, Distad and BM are all innocent, that'd leave me as guilty.

To further complicate things, I honestly believe Gorgon's claim of roleblocker. While we're on that, I'm finding it unlikely that the scum got BOTH a Godfather AND a mafia roleblocker. I'm far more inclined to believe there's a godfather. In fact, I'm going to make this a major assumption and build most of my analysis on this fact. Anyways, on with the analysis.

I'm forced to figure out which of the four are most likely scum. It's easiest to start with figuring out how many of those 4 must scum.

Assumptions I'm assuming are correct and not changeable:

Sonicpulsar - Vanilla townie
Gorgon - Town Roleblocker
Atticus - Scum

Thus, I'm left with determining which of the remaining 4 are linked together.

Scenario 1:
HeH - Sane town cop. Leads to:

BM/Distad - One is godfather, the other townie.
Chronx - Scum.

Conclusion: Likely.

Scenario 2:
HeH - Lying scum. Leads to:

BM - Townie
Distad - Scum
Chronx - Townie

Well, I'm more likely to believe BM's role claim if HeH is lying. There being no investigative role seems highly unlikely. Also, I'd guess HeH was trying to clear Distad by claiming him innocent.

Conclusion: Unlikely. I just don't see HeH lying about being the cop.

Scenario 3:
HeH - Insane/naive Cop

BM - Scum
Distad - Scum
Chronx - Town

This one frustrates me a bit because it seems unlikely, but it'd clear up a few issues I'm having with Scenario 1. Namely, I'm undecided on BM and Distad.

Conclusion: Unlikely. But perhaps more likely than Scenario 2.

Given my initial assumptions, is there anything wrong with my 3 scenarios? Am I missing anything? This day really is hurting my head. So many thing imply so much.

For those paying attention, I've had this window open for ~7.5 hours. It's taken me a while to get here with tons of distractions but it's here nonetheless.

[Sonicpulsar]

I'll try to address most of what you said. In order to make it easier to read, I'll not quote my original post with your comments in it.

One of the first things you need to remember is that this is a speed game. That's inherently bad for the town. The mafia was allowed a N0 kill, that's bad for the town. These two things coupled together make me feel like it's unlikely the mafia got both a roleblocker and a GF. Based on that assumption and what we've seen (investigation wise), I'm thinking there's a GF. Moving on to the next point.

I'm assuming Atticus is scum based on his lurking and the fact that it actually makes my analysis easier to manage. It's an assumption I listed at the beginning that could very well be wrong but it narrows down the scenarios significantly.

You're right on my Scenario 1. If Distad is the GF and BM is town, that means Chronx has to be town, which isn't possible based on my assumptions. You've actually narrowed my Scenario 1 down to BM having to be the GF with Chronx as his scum buddy.

You may have answered your own question on believing the possibility of you being naive or insane. If the setup really is in favor of the town (with the mafia having 2 goons and a GF), a good way to balance it would be to throw off the only real investigative role (short of BM's one shot). I don't think it's the case but you've actually convinced me it's more likely that I originally thought.

Thus, now that's it been narrowed down, I'm forced to think the most likely scenario is that the scum are:

Atticus - Goon
BM - GF
Chronx - Goon

Something about that doesn't sit right with me. I've thought Distad was scum most of the game but his innocent result from HeH troubles me. I'm at a loss.

Anyone else care to chime in?

[Sonicpulsar]

Well, I'll never understand how a comparison of myself and Atticus could be made. I know I don't post a lot but when I do post, I make declaratives and take stances. It's hard to say you don't know what I think and where I stand on issues.

As you said, most people have been lumping Atticus and I together assuming one of us is the third scum because it makes their analysis easier. Without looking back, I don't think I've seen a single scenario where someone didn't say "SP/Atticus - one is scum". I took the logical step of assuming I'm not scum and thus Atticus has to be. But I didn't do it deceptively, I stated it up front.

And just as a side note, I never meant to breadcrumb anything. I basically said as much....without explicitly saying as much. I realized after my response that I left it somewhat ambiguous and didn't want it to bite me in the ass later. So I clarified by saying specifically I didn't target BM on that specific night. I didn't want to press the issue too hard because then it would really look like I was trying to overprotect myself. I tried to just let it drop.

[Sonicpulsar]

I posted an excellent case against SP earlier today, and he vanished like Roadrunner and hasn't responded. The case for Gorgon is strong and fits any number of what if scenarios.

Wow. Do I come across as an asshole? I've been BUSY the rest of today. I was posting this morning during the lab I teach. If you want, I can give you a play by play of why I've been busy from my last post until now. In fact, I may just end EVERY single effin post with when I think my next post will be just so people like you can't say shit. I'll be sure to start every post that doesn't fit the timeline I set by apologizing for posting when I said I wouldn't.

I am NOT the best lynch today. There is NO reason for me to have unclaimed beyond another misguided attempt to get the town to see the light. The RIGHT play was to lynch a mason, even if the masses had to be duped into doing it. The right play is NEVER to place unquestioning trust in someone who claims, which is what everyone did with the mason claim, my claim, and all the claims that have followed. If I had been scum, there would be NOTHING to be gained for me to unclaim and subject myself to this barrage of illogic. Its also ridiculous to propose that as a mafia member, I benefitted from lynching a mason. If I had been mafia, I would KNOW the masons weren't part of my mafia and gain NOTHING by having them verified publically. The mafia know who ALL of their enemies are, Distad. They don't need anything verified.

Do you not see the WIFOM (omg, I used an acronym) you set up when you say things like that? I can explain it to you if you need me to, just let me know.

Moving on to new stuff. I found post 958 by HeH very interesting. It brought up a few points I hadn't really considered, so let me do it now.

Relaxing my assumption that Gorgon is a town RBer and instead a scum RBer (there's still significant doubt in my mind), I hadn't fully considered the idea that Chronx could be the godfather. It'd make sense that the scum with investigation impunity (always appears innocent) would be the one to false claim something. On the off chance he'd be investigated, he'd have an alibi if you will.

What does this imply? Well, I have to believe HeH is the cop and his two investigations must be legit (BM and Distad are town). Which leaves Atticus as the third scum.

Basically, I'm agreeing with HeH on his scenario 1.

With my earlier posts (and assumptions), I felt it most likely that Chronx, Atticus and either Distad or BM were the 3 scum. The next most likely case in my opinion is the one just illustrated, which has Gorgon, Chronx and Atticus as scum again.

Atticus and Chronx are the two people who appear on both of my lists.

I'm gonna

FOS: Atticus

and

FOS: Chronx

I'll decide closer to deadline who I will vote for.

[Sonicpulsar]

Oh, and for Chronx, I'll probably check back in later tonight (around 4 hours from now). I'm not entirely sure I'll post unless something interesting or thought provoking comes along. I'll most likely make a post tomorrow morning containing my vote. This should happen around 11-12 CST.

[Sonicpulsar]

As usual, my responses will be in bold.

Analysis of SP, read in isolation except where I need to find something he is responding to, post numbers refer to his posts in isolation:

Early game: metagame opinions expressed that replacements are most often vanillas. Lurkers are most often scum or power roles. Confesses to lurking ("I lurked thru most of the first part of this game (first 7 pages or so) " post 8. Says he is "trying to provide content" (post 12). FoS Gorgon and HeH, or maybe FoS either Gorgon OR HeH, there are several posts where the only thing which is clear is that its not even clear to him. He expresses suspicion of Distad, over Gorgon. He votes with the easy wagons on Pigg and D3sisted. Why? "Overall, I think it's too late to start a new wagon on someone else with the little discussion that would follow" post 18

I stand by that assessment. We were close to the deadline if I recall (<24 hours) and I honestly didn't think enough discussion would occur to warrant a new lynch AND get as much useful information out of it.

Post 20. In its entirety:

Well, no one else has seemed to respond to the game so I'll start off by saying woohoo, we lost a vanilla townie and not a power role! And a townie who wasn't posting much anyways.

All things considered (a favorite program of my by the way), I'm happy, although thoroughly distressed at the idea that one of the supposed masons wasn't NKed. It's already hurting my head, but the WIFOM implications are vast. I'll have to think on it a bit to see why they weren't killed and what it implies. It would have been so much easier if they would have just killed one of the masons...

I'll let that one speak for itself.

Nice analysis, keep up the good work.

Several posts go by where he doesn't see that case on Gorgon (anymore?). HeH attacks him for wishywashy ness, which is supportable. He makes long posts that suspect everybody, but ever only voted the lurker wagons (looking forward, we see a trend...Atticus is scum for lurking). In an effort seemingly to not appear wishywashy anymore, he OMGUS votes HeH. Was buying the mason claims.

I don't know how to respond to this. I don't feel I've been wishy washy at all. I see wishy washy as being more changing my mind all the time. I also don't feel I have tunnel vision. I like to think I'm an appropriate balance of the two. I'm willing to take in new information and see how it applies to my earlier analyses. Can you more directly state where I've been wishy washy and on what subject? I ask again, can you point to a certain time when my thoughts on a particular issue were up in the air for too long or where I kept bouncing back and forth?

Post 32, partially quoted:

I think we should continue discussion for a few more hours before we ask anyone to claim. I'd actually lean toward HeH claiming at this point and not just because I'm voting for him.

As for Atticus, I guess I missed him in my analysis from post 556. I'm actually surprised no one commented on this fact and/or jumped all over me for it, despite it being an honest mistake. Basically, I don't get a scum vibe from him. He's not posting but I don't get the sense of scumminess from his lurking.

Softly fishes for a role claim from HeH. DOESN'T think Atticus is scummy for his lurking.

No, at the time, I didn't think Atticus was scummy for his lurking. The few posts he had made didn't give me a scum vibe. The fact that it has continued coupled with his latest few posts have given me a much stronger scum vibe. As for the fishing, I didn't want anyone to start claiming just yet, but if/when we did, I wanted HeH to claim first and not because I was voting for him. Should I start explaining myself more in all of my posts? I feel like I do a good job of it. I seldom see my posts quoted except for single person analyses of my entire play. I've always assumed this was because I cover my bases well. Am I just making contentless posts that aren't worth quoting or debating?

Play today: another possible breadcrumb post (didn't target BM ON NIGHT 2). I still think SP was playing this whole game setting himself up for a cop claim, but had to back off when all the role claims came out of the woodwork recently.

Sweet Enola Gay, I thought I covered this already...twice. The fact that I unintentionally left my response ambiguous and IMMEDIATELY realized it and made a EBWOP to change it made me look like I was breadcrumbing. What else was I supposed to do once I realized I'm accidentally been ambiguous?

States repeatedly in all his analyses that he thinks Atticus is scum because its "Convenient".

It's not the only reason. Have I pushed for a effin Atticus lynch? Negative. Have I abused my assumption? I don't think so, else I would have pushed for it by now.

Conclusions: I agree with HeH's assertion a while ago that SP has been wishywashy. I detect breadcrumbing by the way he says power roles and scum lurk and proceeds to admit to lurking

I admitted to lurking...once...and it wasn't on purpose unless you count the first 7 pages of this thread which were effin meta game shit anyways, but I've become a broken record with some of this.

, and also in the way he answered about the targetting of BM. Has sounded a lot of the same notes as Gorgon along the way.

Um.....where?

Conclusion: Likely scum.

[Sonicpulsar]

I can still SP acting peculiar. I think we might be safest with a

Vote: SonicPulsar

today. I'll be on before deadline if this needs changing btw.

Care to elaborate? I think there's a fair consensus that most people think either I or Atticus are scum. The fact that he's lurked most of this day makes me question how you can be so sure of me.

I think there's a good chance either SP or Atticus is scum, but in my mind it's a coin flip between the two of them so I don't think it's wise to lynch either yet when it could cost us the game.

See, I don't understand this. There are way too many scenarios where he (Sonicpulasr) is not scum and we'd lose.

Moving on, I agree with Distad. I don't think an Atticus lynch could or should happen. Chronx is next on my list as most likely scum.

Vote: Chronx

Given the various scenarios I have come up with and others have, I think he's our best bet. I still think it unlikely (although possible) that Gorgon is a mafia roleblocker. In other words, I think the chances of Chronx turning up scum is greater than Gorgon.

[Sonicpulsar]

I fail at quotes. I accidentally left quote tags from BM on that. Should have just been Distad, as in:

See, I don't understand this. There are way too many scenarios where he (Sonicpulsar) is not scum and we'd lose.

[Sonicpulsar]

lol i was sanarthed.

What the hell does that mean?

[Sonicpulsar]

What Chronx said about the masons is true. They don't help the REST of the town at all until one of them is dead.

As I told distad and Gorgon, I posted about half as much as I normally would. I was being half serious complaining about people calling me out on lurking/posting. Anyways, distad and Gorgon were both posting a lot and I felt it would be better to lurk as much as possible while not being the lurkiest (new word!) person (thanks Atticus)in the game. Although I was legitimately trying to make my posts contain lots of content so no one could bitch about it. Apparently, I failed in that respect with some of you.

Chronx, you claim you knew I was scum or a power role from the beginning. Why did you think this? I did not intentionally ever breadcrumb. Some things obviously came out that way but it was never intentional on my part. Did I do a bad job of trying to counter my unintentional breadcrumbing? At one point during Day 3, I contemplated claiming Nurse if the wagon came my way. But I first wanted to know if you'd tracked me. The fact that was cross-posted when we did was unfortunate for me.

BM, I had a feeling from the beginning that you had some sort of investigative role since you were so adamant on a few points. I later doubted this as you seem to argue adamantly about most everything. Overall, I felt from the beginning that if I questioned you, you'd probably doubt me less. Turns out I think I was right.

Theo, I found it in bad taste that you didn't make BM use up a choice the night he didn't get his night choice in on time (unless BM is fibbing) and informed him he had been roleblocked anyways. I'm not entirely sure I liked having D3ssisted come back into the game too. It's way too easy to hold grudges/impressions on a game. Just my opinion, otherwise you did a fine job.

HeH, I found you to be a terrific townie. At not point did I ever think you weren't legitimately scumhunting (trying to objective as possible, obviously I knew you were town). Keep up the good work. I'd like to see you play scum.

[Sonicpulsar]

Player of the game should uncategorically go to SonicPulsar. All the scum did well in the end, but his play through the early parts of the game was astoundingly protown.

BM

I'm blushing.

[Sonicpulsar]

BM, did me calling you out on my vote have anything to do with your subsequent vote Chronx? I was hoping to somewhat bully you in to taking your vote off of me in hopes you'd vote for Chronx. If you'd happened to jump on the Gorgon bandwagon, I was gonna have to figure out a way to get the attention away from him. In fact, I think Distad had the same idea. We needed the RBer too much.

As for my mugger role, it was damn near useless. The Doc protection on N1 was nice, but turned out not needed. Other that the Doc, the only useful ability I could have acquired was your JoAL stuff. But it was told that I had only one night to use my acquired abilites or they were lost.

Also, the fact I was a mugger and we had a RBer helped make me believe the Tracker claim since the same goon would be doing the NKs and another would be RBing every night.

[Sonicpulsar]

I followed Gorgon on the night Raffles died. He went to BM's house.

The problem for me was, Gorgon has acted weird this whole game. And he was alluding to claiming due to the pressure BM had been putting on him to claim. And he hammered CKD, although claiming not to have realized he was doing so.

So I followed him again on the night d3sisted/mason was killed. Here's where it gets weird...he didn't go anywhere. His claim is that he went and blocked Atticus.

The problem I have with all of this is that I don't know what it means. Was I roleblocked but not informed, and instead just told he stayed home, as that what it would seem to me? Or did he lie? Or did he lie, but only about who he roleblocked...maybe he roleblocked ME because he doubted my claim, and THAT is what made me get the result I appeared to get. Or maybe he is a mafia roleblocker and roleblocked me because he DIDN'T doubt my claim.

I dragged out sharing this because it is so ambiguous, and I wanted as much untainted info as I could get out of people before I spoke of it. Personally, I wanted to press SP and Atticus to claim before I posted this, but I didn't think the rest of you would have any patience with that, and didn't want to jeopardize my credibility (further). I also wanted to see what people's reactions to HeH's claim would be while it was still fully in doubt (as, unfortunately, it is).

I don't know how to analyze any of this, and will gladly respond to further questions if they will help others analyze.

Another reason I followed Gorgon again is that the best experience I have with this game is the game I modded at the other site I play at (you know everything as it happens when you are modding, so it gives you pbp insight). In that game, 2 of the baddies opened the game with a love fest, but were soon openly accusing each other of being scum. Here, Gorgon opened the game blowing kisses to BM (as well as congratulating the scum on their doc kill, which is a huge scumtell); later, BM has pummelled the crap out of Gorgon.

From what I have metagamed of the original mod, he was an ambitious fellow, so I can totally see him setting this game up loaded with power roles, and trying to tweak it back and forth by also loading up the scum with tricks. Also, it took FOREVER for him to get approval to run this. So, a mafia roleblocker? I could see it. BM isn't going to like this, but I can still see him as the Godfather, although usually a Godfather has to be the killer and if he is roleblocked, the is no night kill.

That was the post where I seriously doubted your claim and I guessed the chances of us winning on Day 3 increased dramatically. Turns out I was basically right.

[Sonicpulsar]

I completely agree with Chronx. The town CANNOT go to Lylo with unconfirmed masons. They just can't take the risk that it was a scum ploy. ESPECIALLY if there's the risk of a godfather. If there's a chance at a GF, the town can't even trust cop investigation.

[Sonicpulsar]

Lynch 3: ChronX. I didn't vote for him, although I did think there was a good chance he was the GFer. I wish I had done a more effective job of arguing for Gorgon's lynch. By this point I was convinced he was Scum -- and I was right. I just didn't pursuade the rest of the town effectively. I don't know if we would have won even if we had lynched Gorgon here, but we would have still had a chance. If we had lynched him I'm sure I would have been NKed, leaving Battle Mage, ChronX and Atticus versus distad and SonicPulsar. We'd still likely have lost, since I think ChronX would have been the most likely choice for lynching the next day.

The trick there, I think, was that you were only trying to convince BM and Chronx. Atticus was basically a non-player and then the 3 scum were never going to allow Gorgon to be lynched. You would have had to have absolutely all three of you (for a deadline lynch) or convince Atticus of it for a regular lynch if you wanted to get Gorgon. We'd have sacrificed ourselves before we'd have let you lynch him.

Your only real hope, in my opinion, was to get a lynch on me or Distad. It would have been hard to convince enough people to vote for me over Atticus (thanks again Atticus) so that really only left you (the town) with pushing a Distad lynch, which I never felt was going to happen unless we (the scum) basically pushed for it.