Open Countdown! Mini 487! GAME OVER!
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Oh wow, I'm touched. I've been missed even before I started posting. Thanks guys.
I think it's silly to think that SK has decided to lurk the entire game (like twito) or not posted before the kill was announced. It leads to heck of metagaming that goes nowhere and ends in the great lakes of wine-in-front-of-me. (Actually a lake-full of wine would kick ass, but anyhow)Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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I would say that is likely, but again there is no solid evidence to rule it out. Jeep was only testing to make the posting work, all the stuff about lack of PMs are said by HazzeIQ herself, which would put a question mark over it's credibility.M4yhem wrote:Is it metagaming to point out that HazzelQ is almost certainly not the SK?
Unless you think Jeep was collaberating with her, she has an alibi; she can't have sent the pm, since she didn't even know she was in the game. She could still be mafia, of course.
But then again, I recieved mine late as well so I'm inclined to believe it...Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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I actually didn't recieve anything until I was about 3 posts in. Hence why I was posting on Consulmaker without making any posts here. I thought this game was being dragged late, I checked the queue thread, and lo and behold, game is already on the way. So I quickly sent off a PM to Pooky and made my first post here.Mgm wrote:
I find that hard to believe. It's quite unlikely the mod mistyped your name when he sent out roles. When did you receive your role PM?Raffles wrote:But then again, I recieved mine late as well so I'm inclined to believe it...
MGM, can you explain your contradiction?Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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MGM - To me, that looks more like a change in story resulting from forgetting a certain cover up. If it truly was a random vote, then that should stick with you and you would not say something silly as "it was a hunch". So which was it? A hunch or random vote? Even if it was an issue of hunch/random vote at the beginning of the game, a blatant contradiction in your stance is very scummy to me.
HazzleIQ - as I understand it, we are not under pressure for any deadline at all. As I understand it, nightless means mafia gets no nightkills. Then the only person that has an ability to 100% control who to kill is a SK. This gives rise to an importance of swift and accurate lynching of SK, because this increases town's survival by a lot. ***
I have to go now, so more later following the triple star.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Yes, MGM, I may sound a little optimistic - but if we can eliminate SK accurately, then we don't need to worry about SK hitting us after the "deadline". Whereas if we rush things to get it done before the deadline, we are more likely to hit non-SK, and to give SK a free kill on top of it, which seems to be what you are trying to advocate.
The latter would just inflict too much flak damage on town than necessary.
Vote: MgmWoof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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For vote, if you read my assumption, it's not unreasonable. However, I changed my mind because on hindsight the vote was too rushed for my liking, and I wanted to hear what MGM had to say rather than force a one sided vote on him.
MGM - so you are not for a definite lynch before the deadline anymore?Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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so you are not holding back any information?Mirth wrote:Thoughts on what? (if you mean lynching, scroll up for my opinion.) I've commented on all that I feel needs commenting on, honestly. I'm just more or less waiting for more people to join in on the discussion, because it doesn't seem to me that very many people are actively playing.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Wow... currently all frequent posters have their reasons for being scummy that I don't know who to go for.
So in reverse order of posts;
MGM: What is wrong with harrassing ANYONE (note: maybe apart from a confirmed innocent) in a mafia game? It's a way to get them talk, and I sure gained a lot more insight on kinetic than I had before. Now I've been under a similar attack before, where people starts accusing others on the assumption of me being a scum (werewolves vs. mafia redux). But this doesn't mean we should stop grilling from any other angle.
Kinetic: I'm unnerved by your absolute confidence on what is on the mind of the scum groups, without a drop of WIFOM in your way. It's almost as if you are the scum, even though I don't want to believe that because it is too obvious. Such example include:
And why not anyone else? Does it really matter for SK who gets lynched, if they are so unconcerned about the lynchee's alignment? If anything, I think you are putting into our subconcious that MGM is indeed our choice of lynch for today.Kinetic wrote: SK wants MGM lynched no matter what his alignment
I'm also not feeling the vibe for how the SK killed d3sisted in order to frame MGM. I think it was just a lucky coincidence for SK that he picked a person at random, that person was a mafia, and MGM was voting him at the same time. Now M4yhem kill might be that since people raised suspicion at MGM for voting d3sisted (rather stupidly I might add - you really can't base any serious accusation from anything that happened at random vote stage), he decided to play along with the theme. (Although I'm no where near 100% convinced on this theory, but it's the best I have at the moment) Now I won't be at all surprised if the SK is the one who suggested this connection in the first place. Most likely to buy some time by making us concentrate on something utterly useless. And that would be you, Kinetic.
I'm also not in favour of how you OMGUSly reacting to CKD.
CKD: The only person who I can see talking some sense. At the moment, I have nothing to point out.
Mirth: I asked the questions earlier about whether you have anything to contribute. And you insisted that you don't, and you are posting whenever things crop up.
To be blunt, I'm very wary of this attitude. A townie should be trying to dig dead bodies up and generate conversation, rather than offering thoughts there and there. It is a scum heaven when the conversation dies, and our job is to try and prevent such situation from occuring at all costs. But from what I hear from you, you are not even prepared to nitpick other people's posts, even if it is just in the interest of stirring a discussion in town.
HazzelQ: What is your opinion on Kinetic, and MGM?Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Stewie: Any reasons?Stewie wrote:
Here's what I think:Raffles wrote:A quick post as I have to go to bed.
HazzelQ - I'll patiently await for your answers.
Stewie, how would you like to offer your two cents?
At least one of kinetic and hazzelQ is scum. I think HazzelQ is more likely, but only slightly, and I would change votes to beat the "deadline."
Also, I think MGM is town, and at least one of the people on him is scum.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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More lurking in plain sight. I've been repeatedly asking him to contribute (without expressing this on purpose) and he's been refusing to do so. I've been getting a lot of scummy vibes from this.
MGM: I didn't know this game until it was about 3 or 4 pages in.
SiS stands for Suspicion in Sicily. It was Flay's game. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=675
Pretty much all the scums in that game were lurking or doing it in plain sight. I had a real tough game towards the end because I was killing more experienced players, leaving only lurkers near the end. Towards the end, pretty much only Yos2 and I were the only two that weren't lurking.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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It sorta defies the point of catching him lurking if I make it abundantly clear...Mgm wrote:
If you want something you should express it, so things are abundantly clear.I've been repeatedly asking him to contribute (without expressing this on purpose)
I still don't see it. Post 212, 194, etc... None of these say lurking or any kind of non-contribution to me.
Anyway, recently Stewie has been commenting on people (x seems town, y seems scum) without any sort of justification. (And I did specifically ask for this) To me this looks like a scum flying beneath the radar.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Mirth: I speak from my rule of thumb that there is at least one or two lurker-scums (either posting or non-posting) in every single game. But rather than going after the lurkers I can hardly get a read at all, I pressed those not really doing much work to speak out. If they are townies, they should be more proactive in the hunt. But I didn't really see that from Stewie, and I still really don't see it at the moment. Hence I voted, and still hold that vote.
By the way, the best hammer strategy would be to hammer really close to the deadline so the SK can't sneak in the extra kill.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Confusing games can happen, but I see the point about 1 and 3 now. Especially with 1, I think that is excellent.Stewie wrote:
1. I don't have an opinion on everyone.Mirth wrote:Stewie: yes, I understand what you were saying. I did every single post because it helps me understand stuff. I would, however, like to hear your opinion of everybody still alive, if you don't mind.
2. I do mind. Giving an opinion on everyone in the game gives the SK more information. He can kill someone people don't find suspicious, since that player would be hard to lynch; they can not-kill someone people do find suspicious, since that someone would be easy to lynch; and they s/he could kill me, if I'm on to them. I generally don't think it's a good idea to offer your opinion oneveryone.
Since you asked, and HazzelQ doesn't understand, I'll reiterate what I said last page (ie: my case against HazzelQ).
1. HazzelQ makes a comment which only scum would say, namely she says that we can afford to lose a townie. Someone who is pro-town would also be a townie, and would therefore not say that we can afford to lose a townie, since the same argument could be used against them.
2. She explains this by saying that she confused this game with another game. Fair enough, except...
3. She does it again, this time saying she should RC. Once again, she apologises right after, claiming that she confused this game with another. I don't believe a townie would be careless enough to confuse the games in such a manner twice, and therefore I believe she is scum. Not having the townie PM, she forgets that there are no power roles.
4. Saying that she confused the games before anyone else picked up on it only means that she noticed the mistake before anyone else did, so it's a null tell.
Anyway thanks Stewie
UnvoteWoof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Iloveit when people get hostile with me . You might want to watch some House MD or Blackadder though, your wit could do some greasing in a deep frier...
You are one confused chappy. Or am I? I've bolded thevoters, not votee, if you look carefully, and I'm saying one of them is our slippery snivelly SK. I'm going to assume you are going to say "Omgz WHY?" here so I'm going to preemptively shoot down that question.
HazzelQ is probably as closed as confimed anyone can get on not being SK. Why? Because of Jeep. Then why one of those 4 voters? Because if SK isn't on that list, he'd have easily hammered. From looking at the kills, the SK seems to be a good time-keeper, never late to submit his executions. What does that mean? Someone who checks back often (not neccessarily to post, however). HazzelQ wouldn't have been particularly the hard one to place hammer on either. So why wasn't he hammered? Because SK is already on the wagon. It's in the SK's interest to have a lynch occuring at fastest possible pace, so he can speed up on the rate of kill. Incidentally, this is why I didn't hammer, although I was going to later. One kill a week is more than enough for our SK, we don't need to feed him more.
I'm a tad confused by you saying "before the lynch" too, no one is on L-1 atm, are they?
What I can't fathom is why would you get less information from SK kill than a lynch? I mean, what difference does it make, so long as the one killed by SK was active? I can ssure you SK will keep up one a week. He won't feel sorry for little, helpless, powerless, spineless, cheeseless mafias and townies, I'm sure of that. And I think it's a bigger interest of SK to kill mafia rather than townies anyway. So if anything, SK will be playing more like a vig (until all mafia is dead).
And opinions on HazQ and CKD...
HazQ: Stewie raised a couple of good points that I seem to have missed entirely. He can have the cookie I'm eating right now for it. As I said earlier, I was going to hammer. That doesn't seem possible at the moment, however.
CKD: I still stand by that he is talking sense. Unless you can convince me otherwise with a good reasoning, I'm not going to vote for him just yet.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Then Kinetic, give me a good reason that DeepFried/Xyzzy hasn't been killed, and someone who still had posting potential like M4yhem has.
Why would SK want no lynch? If anything, SK would want as many quick mislynches as possible, leaving the town in the wake of darkness while his kill rate sky rockets. This is what you seem to be missing (or intentionally ignoring?) as you advocate the need for lynch. Of course we need a lynch. SK isn't going to kill himself. But we need to be careful when we do, so that we won't give SK a free-kill.
May I point out I asked for aCKDs buddying with HQ mid-game
CKD's defending HQ
CKD refusing to try and help find scumgood reasoning? Did I ask you to point out the actions where he went foul? No. Hell, even I defended HazQ earlier before Stewie made those points. And I'm sorry the last point is stupid. Where did he flat-out refuse to find scum? The thing you have against CKD is the fact that he is against an uninformed lynch, to which I fully side with, (although I think HazQ would be an informed enough lynch). I think I need an explanation from MGM for why he switched such a long sustained vote. And why you Kinetic, immediately followed his ass.Woof!-
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Hey, hey, just because you can't explain why SK killed M4yhem over DeepFried, doesn't mean you need to go nuts...
To save your oh so hypocritical lazy backside from looking back, I voted on Stewie in the past. I've also supported a lynch on HazQ. But please don't cry when I refuse to give you my scummy list, I know that those information helps scum far more than town...Woof!-
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CKD: Just isolate Stewie's posts. It's the last one he made.
MGM: That's a nasty gamble you are taking. What if SK hits town instead of mafia? Then town are put into a worse position.
Mirth: Sorry for not answering the previous question. By "just yet" I mean yes indeed my vote can swing, just as I'm going to vote for you if you show up to me as somewhat scummy.Woof!-
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I agree that we should finish SK soon (I don't really agree with MGM's strategy, I'd prefer to use scum hunting skills to say, entrusting SK to kill off scum) but I think there is a good enough evidence to lynch HazzelQ even if he almost definitely won't turn out to be a SK. If he turns up scum, it would help us enormously, even if SK is still alive.Woof!-
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Not a relevant question as such, but Kinetic, a lake made of wine is truly awesome, don't you think?
I'd also like to challenge your first point on your re-read (about to lynch or not to lynch) which incidentally brings me to the another point why I would accuse you as a SK.
The thing I have against lynching quickly is this. There are five situations, with corresponding "casualty (townie) expected value" and given that we don't lynch SK. The week begins the moment SK's "week clock" resets.
No lynch: E>1/2 per week
Scum lynch end-week: E>1/2 per week
Scum lynch mid-week: E> 1 per week
Townie lynch end-week: E> 3/2 per week
Townie lynch mid-week: E> 2 per week
Then from this, to minimise the E value, our best strategy is to have a very plausible scum lynch atendof the week. Now a townie lynch mid-week is pretty much an equivalent of four weeks of discussion with scum lynch at the end. Surely we can quite confidently narrow down a scum in a month of discussion? The fact that you want a speedy lynch is a worry, because it is exactly what the SK wants.
Oh yes I have a question: How can you put Xyzzy high on mafia list when he posted absolutely nothing? On that note,modcan you prod/replace Xyzzy? I've had enough of 0 activity.Woof!-
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MGM: Interesting. You've listed why you find Mirth suspicious, which I disagree with. But more on that later. You didn't list any reason for me yet you voted. Which is either was accidental or on purpose. I can rule out accidental because you've FoSed Mirth previously in that post. But if you voted on purpose then there must be a reason. Previous records show that you had voted for me for trying to get Stewie to contribute properly. But I have voted on Kinetic who is clearly active, so that is not the reason. You haven't been that strongly after my blood on Day 1, so that can't be the main reason either. You are trying to make me guess the reason, so you are gauging for my reaction. But I don't think you are that simple. You must have some other reason too. Mainly you dislike what I posted about Kinetic. So it's either former or latter and former. [/Dr. House]
AmIright? AmIright?
Why I disagree with the comment on Mirth: Mirth wrote that Kinetic is most likely scum if HazQ turns up town. Does that mean opposite is true when HQ turns up scum? I think not. Some craplogic there.Woof!-
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Kinetic: Amount of information we gain from a lynch is very circumstantial, let alone factual conclusions. I agree stagnation is bad, but then that really isn't an exuse to rush a lynch.
To answer your question:
I would prefer it if the SK is lynched before he makes the next kill obviously.
If that is not possible
a: he kills town--> it is imperative that we lynch SK on that week, because the risk of going past lylo is too big
b: he kills scum --> we can breath a sigh of relief, and get on with searching scum with our given at least two extra weeks. If no further mafia is killed, then we need to lynch SK on that third week.
Shit that wasn't answering your question. But it would help me with it.
Anyway, toactuallyanswer your question...
If a town is lynched (assuming he is lynched at end of the week) then we'll be left with situation lylo. Assuming Sk picks randomly we can have
1: townie dead. 2mafia 1SK 2town. An ugly situation
2: Scum dead. 1mafia 1SK 3town. A bit better than a: (see above)
If no lynch occured then it would go to a: and b:.
I would prefer no lynch scenario to townie death. Don't you think?Woof!-
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Mirth: Hmm I was going to answer your question on 392, but then I got lazy and forgot. Sorry.
What do you mean, "how do I now apply that to this game"? If I had to guess what it means (ie. go for the ovbious) then I would apply it as I would, normally. Maybe even more so than other games as we are timed. People who posted bugger all are bastards that need to be replaced by active players(i.e. Xyzzy, Stewie), because in a game that is timed like this, lurking is into the region of dishonour and borderline cheating than "tactics".
MGM: Hints? Or preferably answers? I'll bribe you with a choc-chip cookie, complete with a tall glass of milk. And telling me answers has a wonderful benefit of cutting timewasting.Woof!-
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Raffles wrote:Kinetic: Amount of information we gain from a lynch is very circumstantial, let alone factual conclusions. I agree stagnation is bad, but then that really isn't an exuse to rush a lynch.
To answer your question:
I would prefer it if the SK is lynched before he makes the next kill obviously.
If that is not possible
a: he kills town--> it is imperative that we lynch SK on that week, because the risk of going past lylo is too big
b: he kills scum --> we can breath a sigh of relief, and get on with searching scum with our given at least two extra weeks. If no further mafia is killed, then we need to lynch SK on that third week.
Shit that wasn't answering your question. But it would help me with it.
Anyway, toactuallyanswer your question...
If a town is lynched (assuming he is lynched at end of the week) then we'll be left with situation lylo. Assuming Sk picks randomly we can have
1: townie dead. 2mafia 1SK 2town. An ugly situation
2: Scum dead. 1mafia 1SK 3town. A bit better than a: (see above)
If no lynch occured then it would go to a: and b:.
I would prefer no lynch scenario to townie death. Don't you think?Woof!-
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Right, look. I understand that some of you maybe confused by me. So I'm goling to summarize once and for all.
We need to lynch SK. Simply because it would buy us far longer discussion time. Clearly a week just isn't enough.
But SK isn't just going to say "hi, I'm SK. Lynch me" Infact, I have never been in the game where SK was lynchedbecausewe were looking to kill the SK. So I'm not entirely confident that SK lynch would happen purely from skill. But hey, we can try. Right?
My vote is on kinetic exactly because of this. He fits my criteria.
1. He was on the wagon when HazQ was lynch -1
2. His stance of wanting lynch asap, even if we can't say for sure that the target is scum.
3. The way he hops around with MGM
4. His interactions with CKD yesterday.
But I see it's not convincing anyone.
My thought is that to lynch someone you believe to be SK is far better plan than to lynch Xyzzy, who is next to hybernation. If I don't see someone worth voting for in active players, of course I would go for someone who is inactive, especially in the game like this. Hence Stewie. I think this answers your question, Mirth.
Now what was I moving onto...
Why I'm saying no lynch is better. Because of situation I laid out above. The worst and best case scenario is better with no lynch at the end of the week respectively. And if such situation arises that we can't lynch a SK or mafia at the end of situation a: then we only have ourselves to blame, don't we? I mean two weeks of high-pace discussion and lynch an innocent townie? C'mon guys.
But, should a confident scum target comes up before the end of the week then that's more than I could ask for. I personally see kinetic as a confident target, unfortunately you guys don't.
MGM: Please refrain from being an arse and accuse me of non-pro-activity (I can't say inactivity because I know that's not what you mean) I've laid out my reasons for why I think kinetic is a SK, I can't do much more than beg (bribe? I still have that cookies and milk) you to believe me for the moment. I also see that you are hardly likely to turn on kinetic (something I've been noting all along). Why is that? Where do you get your belief that kinetic must be town?Woof!-
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^Couldn't that be said the same about you and MGM? If it wasn't for your avatars I'd probably be confusing you two.
I'm not super convinced as you are with heather-scum Kinetic. Granted I really didn't like the way she put you on L-1 immediately after Heather and I (promptly tempted me to switch vote), but reading her posts, my gut tells me it's more of a newb-mistake than a scum-mistake.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Mirth: because I'm narrowing my SK search to those who weren't on HazQ wagon. And now that we know both deepfried/Xyzzy was active during that period (I forgot which player it was at the time, doesn't matter to my argument) I find it very unlikely that SK wasn't on that wagon. And deepfried/Xyzzy certainly wasn't on it.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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I didn't hammer at this point. I backed off to see if SK might hammer, and gave him plenty of time. MGM backed off, Kinetic backed off. And then deadline drew near, so those two hopped back on again. I subsequently hammered. Before that post I think I've already stated my intention to vote for HazQ (I maybe wrong about this point - it could have been after)Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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Contray, I don't believe it to be a WIFOM at all. Stewie's vote only made him look opportunistic (That is not to say he wasn't, he may well have been) was because of lack of contribution. Had it been anyone else voicing suspicion (like me) hammering on deadline would have been perfectly acceptable.
If I was SK, I would have definitely hammered at that point. Why? Because I could so easily get away with it. There are so many roads I could go down that are perfectly safe. I could advocate snappy lynching is a good thing like you do. I could say HazQ was scummy as hell. I could claim that I didn't think in the way that it would raise SK's kill rate. Etc. etc. Possibilities are virtually endless.Woof!-
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Raffles Mafia Zcum
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