Mini #893 - Dollhouse Mafia (Game Over!)

[CrashTextDummie]

Aloha. Most of you probably don't know me, but I'm the new Messiah.

I won't read the game until tomorrow, as I'm currently digesting my christmas dinner. Could Vala Mal Doran please explain why he is voting me/my predecessor?

Unvote

, for the time being.

[CrashTextDummie]

I've managed to read the first 10 pages. Game got off to a very dense start with all the discussion on mechanics.

Coming out of that discussion, I feel reasonably good about Limerickx and TheButtonMen. The latter in particular struck me as pro-town. Worst of the bunch (apart from scum-DN) was Vala Mal Doran, who in forcibly shooting down a possibly game-breaking strategy gave me the feeling that he is scum fearing a forced loss.

At this point in my read-through, VMD is my front-runner for being scum in general. There were a number of small red flags and one big one. There's

lots

of things wrong with that post, among them his treatment of DN, his atrocious LoS and his focus on a lurker.

The other person that struck me as scummy was SerialClergyman, mainly for immediately zoning in on Starbuck and linking her to DN as soon as the opportunity presented itself. I also felt his buddying to Elvis was way disproportionate and just rubbed me the wrong way in general.

This is mostly because Elvis to me is one of the more peculiar players in this game, and a lot of the discussion has centered around her. I felt she also didn't fare well in the strategy discussing part of the early game, and the way she tried to clear SC and herself was worth a raised eyebrow. But even more eyebrow-raising was the verbosity she adopted once people started to question her. I don't consider defensiveness a scum-tell on principle, but in my eyes, she was trying to defend a position she must have realized was flawed. There were some other things about her I disliked (her claim to not have read the scum role PM closely enough to know they don't have a NK which somewhat contradicts her first post of the game in which she urges people to read the rules closely, for example), and the only reason she's not one of my top suspects right now is because I have trouble picturing her as scum with either SC or VMD.

Plum was a bit of a non-entity so far, as was Pug89. The latter in particular seemed to be flying under the radar a bit, and I'll try to keep a closer eye as I continue my read. There's almost no material from Lewarcher82 so far, but what little there is actually didn't sound too bad to me. And one guy hasn't even posted yet.

I'll finish my read tomorrow, and will follow up with a complete and fleshed out analysis.

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD, I'd be interested as to where you stand on the lynch-noimprint/lynch-imprint/nolynch-imprint decision. If you would include that in your post, I would appreciate it.

Will do.

I'm currently on page 15, and the game is a serious bitch to read. Plum's posts in particular make my eyes glaze over. I'm curious to find out how SerialClergyman survived D2, cause he seriously screams scum to me.

It'll probably take me several hours, but I'll be done before the night is over.

[CrashTextDummie]

Could we please not imprint any more people until I get a chance to put my thoughts out on it? I'm currently on page 29.

[CrashTextDummie]

Got done with my read. I won't get a full analysis out tonight after all, as it's gotten late (3:30 AMish in my neck of the woods), but I can offer preliminary thoughts.

People I want to lynch:
Vala Mal Doran
SerialClergyman
xRECKONERx

roughtly in that order. I feel much stronger about the former two than xRECKONERx. The reason I place Vala Mal Doran on top is because I saw virtually no redeeming values in her posts and she's read scum to me all game long. SerialClergyman was much more outlandish in the scummy stuff he's done (I was flabbergasted by some of the crap he pulled), but there are some instances in his play that make me second guess myself. And I have reason to believe that Vala Mal Doran and him are not scum together. Needless to say, you can expect me to significantly expand on this tomorrow.

CTD, I'd be interested as to where you stand on the lynch-noimprint/lynch-imprint/nolynch-imprint decision. If you would include that in your post, I would appreciate it.

It's hard to disagree with the end of D1 in hindsight. Before I read the game, I would have been in favor of giving out one imprint and nolynching to start things off. SC's hammer is actually something I don't count against himr, as I agree with his (and Elvis') stance of either or when it comes to lynching/imprinting. The D2 lynch left me mostly baffled (mostly because I found the case against Starbuck to be rather weak, and the decision was incredibly rushed). IMO D2 would have been a better time to go for the imprint/nolynch in terms of risk/reward, as the town was ahead and there was no need to rush another lynch.

As for today, I would have been hard-pressed not to push a lynch on one of my top-suspects, but it's a done deal now. I don't really mind the decision. If we're gonna imprint, I'd rather it be sooner than later. I'm inclined to send the game to night with just the one we have, as I'd primarily like to find out what we're dealing with, and therefore don't see the point in raising the chance of imprinting scum by doing any more.

If I had to imprint another person apart from me, it would be Limerickx. There's no one else in the game I feel comfortable enough about.

More tomorrow-

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm wondering why I'm not in bed right now, but since I'm not, I might as well answer. This is off the top of my head, since I'm too lazy to consult my notes.

The thing that stuck out to me the most is the way you flip-flopped on D2 from wanting to figure out imprints to voting. You went "figure out imprints first" > vote SC > "no, figure out imprints first" > vote Starbuck. To me, this indicates opportunism more than anything else. I'm convinced there was opportunistic scum on that lynch, and in my estimation, you fit the bill the most.

There's some more stuff, and there's also stuff to counterbalance my suspicion of you (mostly your predecessor's play, but also some other scum candidates on the Starbuck lynch), hence why you're not my top suspect.

I'll get into it more tomorrow.

[CrashTextDummie]

Very inconvenient that Vala should get herself replaced at a time like this. In any case, here's some analysis to mull over (I may be repeating myself at times from my preliminary analysis and from what others said):

Vala Mal Doran

:

As I previously said, I had a problem with her reaction to ButtonMen's potentially breaking strategy. The fact that she went as far as to call it being against the spirit of the game gave me the feeling that this was her venting her annoyance at potentially losing the game because of a flawed set-up. This feeling was strenghtened with her Post 88, in which she threatened to leave the game if the town wasn't going to "play fairly for the scum". Unlike farside22, I don't see her actual vote against ButtonMen as particularly damning (as in I don't see a scum

motivation

behind it), but in the context of her general reaction to his plan, it reads to me as possible scum

frustration

.

-----------

Next up is her stance on self-imprints, which was based on a fair amount of crap-logic:

I just think it looks too eager. I understand that it can be argued that one only knows one's own towniness, etc etc, but if people don't vote to imprint themselves it takes 7/11 people to imprint someone rather than 7/12 and I like that majority better. Then there's the fact that if all of the scumteam votes to imprint one of their own, that's four votes, which means it only takes three unwitting town to make a powered-up scum. I'd prefer to make that number four by keeping anyone from voting themselves, and give ourselves more of a margin of error. (And yes, I'm aware scum probably wouldn't be that stupid. If they thought they could get away with it though, I'm sure they'd jump at the chance.)

Not only is this argument steamed in unnecessary paranoia, it also doesn't make any sense. Not self-imprinting doesn't change the fact that (theoretically) it only takes three unwitting town to power-up a scum, as no one's stopping anyone from self-imprint-hammering. She later re-inforced that self-imprinting would give scum an advantage, and only abandoned the notion once it became apparent that no one else had a problem with self-imprinting.

From a pro-town perspective, her stance on this makes zero sense to me. If you are pro-town, how can an imprint vote on yourself give an advantage to scum? From a scum-perspective on the other hand, I can follow her line of thinking. The way I see it, she was afraid that self-imprinting would draw attention to herself, therefore she saw it as something to avoid and to accuse others of. Once she was questioned on that, she had to come up with a BS excuse for why it's supposedly scummy. It's this kind of self-awareness that I find to be one of the most telling things when hunting for scum.

------------

Next up is a big one:
First of all, there's the matter of her basically giving DN a pass under the Village Idiot Clause. She concedes that his play was "vehemently anti-town", and yet she ranks him as "neutral" in her scum-list. I seriously wonder why some people strung up Starbuck because she supposedly defended DN and yet pretty much ignored the fact that Vala

actually

defended DN, based on weak reasoning to boot.
It's the kind of reasoning I'd expect to see when a scumbag decides to lend a weak buddy a hand. Passing off his bad play as either inexperience or meta, so you can use the "well, I have trouble reading bad players" excuse should he be lynched regardless.

My other major problem with that post is her scumlist. The

only

two people she is suspicious of is the guy who never posted and the guy who had one post of substance. Now granted, she may really not like lurkers (notwithstanding that the game was only 4 days old at that point), and I'll get back to her stance on lurking later. But really? No suspicion of anyone who actually participated in a game with 4 scum on page 10? Scumhunting sure is hard when you're scum yourself.

Her case for calling lewarker "obvscum" is also fairly crap. The fact that she accuses him of using words like "vibes", "interesting", "as far as I can see", "seems" and "a little", and treats this as evidence that he doesn't want to commit to having strong opinions is actually quite ludicrous to me. Those are all words I use frequently when I make cases as town. Her other points (his voting/imprinting without providing solid reasoning) are actually fair, but enough to declare him "obvscum"? Hardly.

-----------

Speaking of lurking: In her very next post (and the one after that), she accuses non other than DN of lurking. At that point in time, the game was four days old and DN had posted 24 times, not missing a day. He very clearly was

not

"lazying" around. Why then does she perceive him as such? Because she wasn't happy with his scum-performance would be my guess.

Note also that in this post, she wants to allow for Starbuck to "become guilty by association" to DN and lewarcher. And she also re-states that she wants to keep around DN not because she doesn't find him scummy, but because she finds someone else

more

scummy. This is the kind of stuff that makes me

very

suspicious (note also that her behavior towards lewarcher at this stage made me lean towards town on him, this is for future reference once I analyze xRECKONERx).

-------

There's not much from her for a good 100 posts or so because she was preoccupied apparently (heh). She then comes back with a post in which she shows support for SC's lynch plan, which I find dubious to say the least (I'll get back to this once I analyse SC). More importantly, she finally, reluctantly, turns around on DN, only his wagon is too far advanced to hop on to. I actually find her wording of this quite funny: if she was scum with him, surely she would be bussing him right now, but hey, she's not voting him because he's at L-1.

---------

Her Post 410 is another juicy one for me. Here she backs off of her previous two top suspects for stated reasoning: "Lurkers are scum. Lurkers who get replaced by active people stop being scum." I'm paraphrasing, you get the gist.

That

is the kind of scum-hunting she's been doing on D1. It boggles my mind that she hasn't been scrutinized yet.

To end VMD's D1, here's another quote:

Smart scum will bus their scumbuddies if they think the benefits will outweigh losing a member. Period. For a scum attacking a scum!DN, they would receive far more benefits from bussing him early and hard than they would from keeping him alive, assuming he's as useless in the QT as he is here. If DN is scum I expect to find at least two of the scumbags on his lynch trying to make themselves look good, if not all three. You're completely disregarding the fact that he is a blatantly anti-town player, and not someone scum would probably want to keep around if he's going to undermine their strategies.

Sounds exactly like the kind of thing a scum would say who failed to bus a flailing scumbuddy.

----------

Onwards to D2. VMD started it in a peculiar fashion. Several things about this:
1. Considering a scum had just been lynched, the indignation sounds dishonest
2. Vala

never

made any kind of push to get anyone imprinted. Again, the indignation sounds dishonest.
3. Again, considering scum was lynched, SC's hammer cost town

nothing

at all. Her "you bussed him to cut off discussion" angle doesn't make any sense at all. Not in the slightest.

This whole post sounds terribly fake to me.

----------

At this point, my notes start to get thin, and quite frankly, I think I've written plenty. But in the name of dilligence, I've reread her posts in isolation just now. She spent the majority of D2 defending herself, defending Starbuck (not a point in her favor, for the record) and attacking SC for her bullshit "he bussed to cut off discussion" reasoning. Which, by the way, is part of the reason I have trouble seeing those two as scum together.

As for D3, she started it off by voting my predecessor, who was previously firmly in her pro-town list, because of his hammer vote. Lazy at best.

---------

To finish up this monster of a post, I feel the need to point out that she has hardly commented on anyone alive except for my predecessor, SC and Elvis. No word on xRECKONERx

at all

since he replaced in (used to be her top-suspect). Hardly any word on pug, Plum, Limerickx or farside (used to be her number two suspect before she replaced in).

She's scum and needs to die tomorrow, regardless of her being replaced.

[CrashTextDummie]

That took way longer than expected. I'll come back with analysis on more players tomorrow. To get something out of the way, the fact that xRECKONERx asked for my reasoning to suspect him and then didn't comment

at all

when I obliged him seriously rubs me the wrong way.

To change the subject to current matters, could someone explain to me the benefit of imprinting more than one player today?

[CrashTextDummie]

By the way, could we please not imprint Pug just now? Thank you.

[CrashTextDummie]

The reason which I felt were strong for imprinting 2 over 1 is that in the event an imprint was something like a blocker/tracker type, it could be used to check the first user. Thats one reason I can think of.

Like most things in this setup, its a risk/reward proposition, what level of risk are you most willing to take?

Considering I'm pretty confident I caught scum in VMD, I'd prefer to keep the risk to a minimum.

I'm curious to hear the end of CTD's analysis. I'm totally up for lynching one of your suspects, but I'll wait till you finish your analysis to expand.

Does that include you?

Since we appear to have longer left than in my other ongoing game (which has a deadline of... today) I hope you'll forgive me if put that one to rest quickly before getting up to speed here.

Hi, you're scum. Take your time.

Analysis continuing tonight.

[CrashTextDummie]

More analysis. Prolly gonna be another long one.

SerialClergyman

The first thing that occured to me as I read the game is that he really didn't seem to be aware that scum don't have a nightkill. The post in question is pretty subtle and not easy to fake. I don't agree with Elvis that this automatically exonerates him from being scum, I've played whole games as scum while having the wrong ideas about my own powers because I didn't read my PM closely. But it is a fairly strong point in his favor (and pretty much excuses him from being the first to suggest imprinting everyone). It's mostly downhill from there, though.

-------

The first post of his I found slightly problematic is his post 115, in which he advocates not imprinting anyone for the first time, despite voting to imprint Elvis and himself still (this was before they went all buddy-buddy). He later claimed that he left the imprints vote due to not having thought about it, which is somewhat dissatisfying considering the post I linked in this paragraph, which clearly indicates he thought about it. It's not a major gripe, but I still have a lot of ground to cover when it comes to his stance on imprinting. So stay tuned. For the record, I highly doubt that E_K and him are scum together, so I don't give much credence to the theory that them imprinting each other is anything but coincidence.

-------

First instance of his fluid stance on imprinting: Post 146. Also the beginning of his love affair with Elvis_Knits. Only seven hours after declaring that no one should be imprinted, he's down with a plan that has him and elvis imprinted. When I first read it, it made me uncomfortable how easily he embraced the hand that Elvis extended to him. Considering her plan directly contradicted his previous (and later) stance on imprinting, it gives me the feeling of a scumbag taking advantage of the fact that he had just been "cleared" by another player.

I'm gonna deal with this now without providing links (I can already feel this becoming another monster post): One constant issue I had with the way he handled his connection to Elvis is that he almost exclusively argued against the accusation that they are scum together. I currently lean towards Elvis being town, and I feel this is a natural approach for a scum-player who is establishing a strong link to a town-player. By repeating over and over that they are not scum together, he's laying the groundwork for when one of them ends up dead. Dead townplayer -> "told you we're not scum together". Dead scum -> "why was he so adamant that they're not scum together?" This is a fairly week point against him, but it's another thing that fits with SC-scum.

--------

Post 184 is the first big one, in which he accuses Starbuck of being scum with Deathnote, despite never mentioning any suspicion of DN previously (he shot down DN's strategy on page 1, and that's it). Two problems with this:
1. Starbuck's so called defense of DN wasn't actually unreasonable from a pro-town perspective.
2. Even if you don't think her stance on DN was reasonable from a pro-town perspective, I really don't see how you can jump to the conclusion that they are buddies, unless you have a previous suspicion on DN

This seemed not to be the case for SerialClergyman. And indeed, he followed that post up with a vote on Starbuck.

To me, this reaction to her first real post of the game was completely overblown. And knowing now the alignments of Starbuck and DeathNote, it's easy to see why scum-SC would have linked them so heavily together. I'll get back to this later.

---------

Lo and behold, SerialClergyman confirms that he's not actually suspicious of DeathNote, except for the fact that Starbuck is defending him underhandedly. This is completely backwards to me. How can you consider the defense of another player underhanded if you're not actually suspicious of that player? I don't get that sentiment at all from a pro-town perspective. Someone makes somewhat neutral comments about another player I don't consider scummy, I don't bat an eye. On the other hand, when I'm scum and a hapless townie makes comments about a scumbuddy that can be construed as a defense, it presents an opportunity for attack. The fact that SC swooped down on Starbuck like a hawk immediately like that despite claiming a lack of suspicion of DN indicates to me that he was keenly aware of the fact that DN is scum.

Of course, there's also the fact the he is pushing Starbuck and not Deathnote, but I don't really count that against him at this point despite how it looks in retrospect. If he's actually town and truly believes in this twisted logic, it would make sense for him to go after Starbuck first.

------------

Where it starts being a problem is here. The way he pre-emptively clears DN in case Starbuck turns up town (and further condems her in case DN comes up scum) rings major alarm bells for me considering what we now know about the alignment of these two players. He took this even further when he presented his crazy lynch-scheme later on.

-------

And here we are, the big one. I have to quote it because it's so juicy:

I have a suggestion. Lynch DN, imprint me. If I'm wrong, and he's town, I'll be the next lynch, and I'll tell you all what my power was and where I used it and what I found. If I'm right, we lynch Starbuck and imprint me and elvis.

How does Elvis feel about this now that we know the alignment of DN and Starbuck? Not only is this a ludicrous attempt at a power-grab (his scheme involves him getting imprinted twice!), it also conveniently sets up the lynch of a pro-town player. Of course, this is in hind-sight, but considering he

wasn't actually suspcious of DN on his own

, I really cannot comprehend at all how a town-SC could have thought this was a good idea.

Of further note, he has once again changed his opinion on imprinting (he previously changed back to a no-imprint stance). It won't be the last time.

By the way, the fact that he offered to be lynched himself shortly after is

not

a point in his favor. Not only because, if he is scum, he's trying to set up the lynch of Elvis with it (who, again, I currently don't believe to be scum), but also because offering your own lynch in general in such a situation (namely D1 with no information) is incredibly counter-intuitive to a pro-town player, especially a good one. I consider it a scum-ploy in most cases (all cases if the player in question is not an idiot, which I don't believe SC to be).

----------

At this point, I'm skipping over a bunch of stuff I would have commented on if this post wasn't so damn long already. It's mostly a bunch of what I consider crap-logic concerning probable scum-behavior and probabilities in general. For the record though, he's back to a no imprint-policy.

One instance of crap-logic I want to point out though, because I consider it severe. Here, SC pulls out some completely arbitrary numbers out of his ass to demonstrate that scum are statistically unlikely to bus on D1 in an effort to discredit the notion that he could be bussing Deathnote, completely disregarding the fact that Deathnote started the game in an incredibly anti-town fashion, not to mention apparently has a reputation for being a less than stellar player, and would have therefore screamed to be bussed if he was scum (and he was). The whole argument is a complete and disingenuous fabrication.

---------

That's it for D1, almost. Are you exhausted yet?

I will note again here that his hammer on Deathnote is not a point against him, but rather the first sizable point in his favor. If he is scum, he did the town a huge favor by not allowing any imprints to go through. Nothing was lost, a lot of information was gained, a scumbag was killed. Of course, you could WIFOM this to hell and back or speculate that all imprint candidates were protown, but I chose not to venture down this path.

If the hammer was a point in his favor, the beginning of D2 certainly isn't. Of course, there's the matter of his continued push against Starbuck, which is a lynch he essentially set up the day before, but there is more:
1. He once again offers his own lynch. I still find it scummy.
2. He forcibly reminds everyone "NOT TO IMPRINT ANYONE". This starkly contrasts his stance on D3 which basically amounts to "now that we have information, we're ready to imprint" (I will discuss this further once I get there),

The second one is fairly big to me. D2 would have been the ideal time to imprint, coming off of a scum-lynch. He later excused this by stating that one should go for a lynch as long as there's a strong suspicion, but that's bullshit to me. The read I'm getting here is that he was set on carrying out a preconceived plan to bulldoze Starbuck and not actually interested in the best course of action for the town.

As an aside, I don't appreciate the fearmongering ("if I wouldn't have interefered, scum wave have gotten imprinted") either. It actually diminishes the point I made above that his hammer works in his favor. If his stated reasoning for dropping the hammer was "better risk/reward if we get rid of this scumbag and do imprints later", I would have considered it pro-town. The reason he did provide doesn't work for me. Of the people likely to be imprinted, he only ever commented on one of them in a negative capacity.

---------

The rest of D2 was pretty much him lynchmongering Starbuck and offering his own lynch again and again. It's not very substantial on the whole. One thing I did notice just now though which didn't occur to me on my initial read-through is that he repeatedly links Starbuck to VMD. I don't remember off-hand where I got the notion that SC and VMD are probably not scum together, but this could be an indication that they in fact are (also, this, notice a pattern?).

---------

Here is something I want to bring to everyone's attention: His stance on imprinting on D2, for example in Post 522 or Post 524. Keep this in mind for future reference, it's important.

----------

Actually, and luckily for you, The stuff from the last paragraph was to be kept in mind for not so future reference, as I'm skipping ahead to the beginning of D3. And guess what SerialClergyman wants to do? Imprint people, of course. Now first of all, this is almost comically inconsistent. Not that long ago, he was in favor of lynching 5 times in a row,

irregardless of Starbuck's alignment

. It took one line from Elvis to change his mind. That in itself I find

very

fishy.
Even more gravely, it fits with a pattern I see very often in scum. SerialClergyman was unflinchingly tunneled on Starbuck (and a small number of perriferal players) and fiercly against imprinting. Once he had achieved his goal, he was suddenly without suspects (he bases his analysis in this post purely on wagon-placement, which is not a very promising way to scumhunt, to say the least) and so changed his tune on imprinting. Again, this strongly reads to me like he was working along the lines of a pre-conceived plan and not at all interested in what was

actually

in the best interest of town at any given time.

Ah, and I see that this post contains one of the things that made me think he is not scum with VMD, the fact that he goes to her as a suspect now that his crusade against Starbuck is over. Not his top suspect though, so it's not as strong of an idication as I remembered it.

---------

His actual reason for suspecting Limerickx is crap, as has been pointed out by Limerickx. It also doesn't take long for him to back down from VMD. He is completely without strong suspicions at this point and seemingly going for imprints for a lack of better ideas. And this is the guy who wanted to lynch 5 times in a row the day before.

Limerickx on the other hand interprets this as him turning to imprints because he's on the chopping block. I disagree, but appreciate his questioning, as it produced nuggets like this:

I was always in favour of turning to imprints. It was only when we had a good lead on scum that I thought imprinting was a bad idea.

This is a bold-faced lie

. Here, I will quote it for you:

8 townies now. There are 3 scum. So if we never imprint, we could have 5 lynches before we're even, whereupon I'm not sure what happens.

Given I'm pretty sure of the towniness of 4 players, I'm so into that plan

Liar, liar, pants on fire.

Farside has done some questioning about his sudden willingness to imprint (I think it was her), so I will not extend this post further by repeating it, but suffice it to say that I also don't see why he didn't have those sentiments after the Deathnote lynch. And I will repeat that the "because we had a lead on Starbuck!" excuse is bullshit.

---------

Aaaaaand, I think I will stop here. One more quote though:

I honestly need too much time and it's just a theory at the moment. I'm OK with the people likely to be imprinted so I'm not too worried.

Last I heard, he wasn't.

---------

Closing thoughts:

His acts, almost all of them, scream scum to me. Points in his favor are the fact that he seemingly wasn't aware of the lack of a scum NK (fairly strong point in his favor), his hammer on DN (very mild point in his favor, considering his stated reasoning) and the fact that I have some doubts about him being scum with my second top suspect (mild point in his favor).

Finally, if he is scum, he is a good actor. The thing that made me doubt myself the most on my initial readthrough was how boldly he went about his crazy schemes and the air of honest delusion that surrounded him at times. But having compiled this analysis, I have very little doubts.

I want him dead.

[CrashTextDummie]

Sorry, that was another long one. Please read it. I want Elvis in particular to comment.

I think I'm done for the night. Reckoner is next up, and starting with him, these things should become shorter (I hope).

[CrashTextDummie]

a) I apologise in no way for my reads. It doesn't take most people just one post to form a scum team, but that's all it takes me. I read the game via patterns and that post by Starbuck was subtly and continuously defending someone. When that person turned out to be scum, I was 95% sure she was as well. Of course - I was wwrong before, wrong then and will be wrongl ater on, but on the whole my reads are decent.

You were sure she was scum before DN turned out to be scum. The whole way you went about your read felt backwards to me.

b) Manic theories and changing opinions are standard. Can't apologise for them either. That's simply a function of me having little information. Sometimes they come off and sometimes they don't, but meh.

Is lying about changing opinions also standard?

c) I am a good actor when I'm scum. But I don't put myself in as much jeapordy as I've been in this game. I have good awareness of my perception in the town and there's little reason for me as scum to be as much of a presence in this game as I have been.

d) What is the motivation for me as scum pushign that heavily to kill Starbuck? I've never played with her, I know for a fact she doesn't have a power role. A 1-1 exchange is a bad idea for scum. It's not enough to say that since scum want townies lynched you pushed for her lynch - if I were scum, that action cost me a buddy and put myself in a category of top suspicion all for one townie who I knew was not a PR.

Since I'm tired, I'm just gonna call WIFOM on these. I may expand tomorrow.

e) Even if having Starbuck flip town wasn't a good reason in your mind to switch from lynching to imprinting, what's the advantage to that switch if I'm scum? For what reason did I make it?

Your top suspect was dead (actually, your only real suspect). You hadn't established any suspicion on any living players. You took the easy way out.

And I'm not saying Starback's flip was a bad reason to switch from lynching to imprinting, I'm saying Deathnote's flip was a better reason.

There's no way I'm getting an imprint, and any information the town gets from imprints is only likely to further convince them I'm scum. Wouldn't I do what I did on D1? Get myself lynched and deny the town information?

I'm baffled you would ask this question, considering you dropped the hammer on DN. You getting yourself lynched as scum doesn't deny the town any information.

If there's something big I haven't addressed, let me know.

Let me get back to you, I'm too tired to check. Though the "I was always in favor of turning to imprints" lie is a big one for me, you could adress that.

I think I made a mistake in not outlining my theory earlier, but I had no idea you'd try to link me with VMD.

Yeah, I was surprised too.

Actually, I've changed my mind. I want to hear yoru case on Reck first.

Why?

*feels exhausted after read thru*

I emphasize.

[CrashTextDummie]

Now look what you've done, I can't sleep. So you get more answers.

The very fact that people feel they are able to 'call WIFOM' makes me want to tear out my eyeballs. And I

like

my eyeballs.

If you are saying something is scummy, you also have a responsibility to explain

why

it's scummy. Calling me scummy for trying to push a lynch on Starbuck makes no sense. If I were scum, it cost me a buddy and put me in a position where I signed my name blatantly to a townie lynch.

I cannot read minds. I therefore do not know why you would have played like you did as scum. But I can name you a hundred reasons and more for why you could have done it. Here, I'll give you a sample:
1. You felt you could get away with it
2. You felt it would be advantageous to your remaining buddies
3. You wanted to appear consistent after you failed to lynch Starbuck over Deathnote
4. You felt like taking a risk
5. You thought being a forceful presence would make you look pro-town
6. You thought one of your buddies was under threat of being scrutinized
7. You thought it would spread confusion
8. That's just how you roll

That enough to give you an idea?

The simple fact remains that it was a bullshit wagon and you pushed it the hardest. What you're basically saying is that scum wouldn't push hard to get a townie lynched and that scum wouldn't act as a forceful presence in a game. I'm saying yes, they would. And every single person on earth who has ever played mafia knows I'm right. This has so far been a nightless game. I'd

expect

scum to push hard for a townie lynch. And hell yes, it makes sense to call you scummy for pushing a lynch on Starbuck. It was a bad wagon and I've explained why I think so. Pushing bad wagons is scummy.

I never lied about my opinion. When thinking Starbuck was scum, I was quite prepared to just lynch after lynch. Her town flip threw out my reads and as I said to elvis before the start of D3, if she flipped town I would prefer to no lynch and imprint. No lies, quite logical.

That doesn't change the fact that it was a lie. You're confirming right here that you wanted to just lynch after lynch. You later stated that you were always in favour of turning to imprints. The two directly contradict each other. That makes the latter statement a lie.

And before you ask me what you would gain from lying about such a trivial and easy to check matter, the answer is nothing. It's not an attempt at deceit, it's an internal inconsistency. You weren't aware of your previous stance because the opinions you've shared on imprinting in thread do not match with your true intentions. Because you're scum.

Besides, when you declared that you were in favor of just lynching 5 times in a row, it had

nothing

to do with your supposed belief that Starbuck was scum. Your stated reasoning was that you were confident in having read 4 people as town. If a single mislynch would make you doubt yourself to the point where you suddenly weren't confident enough anymore, I don't see any reason at all why you would have suggested that course of action in the first place. None.

Your point about DeathNote makes some kind of sense but you aren't looking at my mindset. I was almost sure that Starbuck was scum. Her lynch was the immediate obvious choice. There was no reason to imprint because we didn't need any information.

I have tried to look at your mindset. If you had read my analyses carefully, you would have realized it's a big part of how I scumhunt. I have drawn my conclusions.

Your top suspect was dead (actually, your only real suspect). You hadn't established any suspicion on any living players. You took the easy way out.

This is a bad, bad argument.

I agree, it was late. What I should have said:
The fact that you had

no

suspects after Starbuck turned up town is bad enough. That you didn't make a serious attempt to find new ones is worse.

Again, I cannot read minds, so I'd have to give you another list of reasons why you could have switched to imprinting. One that is immediately obvious is that it's possible a scumbag got into a position where they could get imprinted (contender: Pug). You say "there's no way I'm getting an imprint" like there is only one scum floating around.

By the way, SerialClergyman, got an opinion on VMD?

Making another attempt at sleeping now.

[CrashTextDummie]

Addendum:

Calling me scummy for trying to push a lynch on Starbuck makes no sense. If I were scum, it cost me a buddy and put me in a position where I signed my name blatantly to a townie lynch.

The point I've been making is that you actually tried to save your buddy with your "lynch Starbuck, if she's town there's no case on Deathnote" spiel. You actually contributed very little to the Deathnote lynch apart from the hammer, which was a foregone conclusion.

[CrashTextDummie]

My appologies, too tired for another one of those today.

[CrashTextDummie]

Gonna reply some more to SerialClergyman and maybe comment on KoC's analysis post after this, depending on how long it takes me. More analysis. Hopefully shorter this time.

xRECKONERx

:

As I previously mentioned, his predecessor Lewarcher82 actually gave me a fairly strong pro-town feeling. From his stance on Starbuck to his opinion about answering questions for others to a very decent looking analysis and line of questioning and especially his interpretation of the SC/Elvis/SB/DN business, it's all good. That last post I linked in particular I felt was very reasonable and in tune with my own reading at the time. I considered him one of the most pro-town players in the game at this point in my read-through.

--------

Reck's initial analysis when he replaced into the game I also felt was decent, although there was a part to it that caused me to raise an eyebrow:

This stuff about people being semi-cleared because they "didn't understand the setup" is complete bullshit. I read the rules,

but even I glazed over the fact that scum lacked a night kill

. I read the sample PMs, and I still didn't get it. It wasn't until the Mod clarified that I finally realized it. It's a null-tell. Trying to push it as a town-tell is a slight-scum-tell, though.

The underlined part felt almost like a scum-slip to me. If he is town, then the fact that he didn't realize the scum have a nightkill either surely would indicate that there may be some truth in Elvis' reasoning? The way he worded it and the reasoning behind it felt to me like it comes from a scum mindset: "Even I the scum glazed over the fact that I don't have a nightkill, so surely it's not a town-tell".

At this point, I mostly dismissed this notion though, on account of Lew's play and the quality of the rest of his analysis. But considering what follows from Reck, I'm inclined to reevaluate.

--------

For the rest of D1, I continued not really having a problem with him. The only real issues I saw where his arguing for no lynch/imprint over a DN lynch despite being on it. I consider this fairly minor though.

--------

The problems start on D2, and I'm probably gonna mostly repeat what was said by others and myself:

First of all, as I previously mentioned, there's the matter of his flip-flopping when it came to imprints. Timetable:
1. wants to imprint before deciding on a lynch
2. votes SerialClergyman
3. retracts his vote because he wants to figure out imprints first
4. joins the Starbuck wagon

For someone who is so adamant about getting people imprinted, that seems very inconsistent to me. I can definitely see the scum motivation behind this. He wants to appear pro-town by forcibly advocating a plan that sounds pro-town but jumps at the opportunity to get someone lynched. And looking back on D1, where he was similarly adamant about getting people imprinted, I can also see scum motivation in his actions: Pushing for a seemingly pro-town plan while leaving his vote on a weak scumbuddy because he doesn't want to be off-wagon at the end of the day. On the other hand, I fail to see any protown motivation for this behavior on D2.

----------

And of course, there's his jump on Starbuck for "passively defending someone who flipped scum". On its own, I don't necessarily find this scummy (apart from the fact that it's weak and undifferentiated reasoning to put someone at L-1). It's not unreasonable to change ones opinion on a player in light of a scum-flip. The inconsistency lies in the fact that he didn't have a problem with it on D1

despite

the fact that he already thought DN was scum at that point and therefore would have expected the scum-flip.

Not to mention that he was fifth on what I still consider a crap-wagon, which smells of opportunism.

----------

I'll start my D3 analysis with a piece of WTF:

Honestly, I'm wary of the people who were against the DeathNote lynch. I may have been one of those people, but I know my town-ness.

Err... Reck was against the DeathNote lynch? He was

on

that lynch. Is this another slip? He was adamant on D1 that he thought DeathNote was scum and voted for him for the whole duration of his stay. Doesn't make sense to me

at all

.

----------

As for this:

Farside is digging herself a hole.

I don't really the the problem with this quote and don't follow the case that is being built around it.

----------

Finally, I'll reiterate that his asking me why I want to lynch him and then not showing any reaction at all to the reasoning I provided bothers me a lot. It's something I often see in scum: Not reacting to stuff they can't easily explain away in hopes that the accuser will focus elsewhere (which wasn't unlikely, considering I had my eyes set on VMD and SC first and foremost). The fact that a defense to farside's points had to be dragged out of him strikes me in a similar vein.

---------

So that's it, my analysis of xRECKONERx. It's pretty severe stuff (I particularly have to mull over the two possibles slips some more) counterbalanced by my read on his predecessor and his D1 play.

I can see him as scum with VMD, but probably not with SC. I'm hoping for a clearer picture once I do detailed analyses on the rest of the players (yes, you're getting more of those).

Now can I hear SCs thoughts on all this, please?

[CrashTextDummie]

I'd actually like to hear why you think Pug is town. I'm pretty sure I have more things to discuss with you, but I'll leave it for the new year.

[CrashTextDummie]

And how do you feel about xRECKONERx imprint-hammering TheButtonmen?

[CrashTextDummie]

3 day-talking scum really screw with my usual way of catching scum I think.

For the record, stuff like this bothers me. I personally had forgotten about the day-talking about 5 minutes after having read the sample role pms and it didn't influence me in my reading of the game at all.

The fact that you're so keenly aware of it makes me feel that it's probably because you're involved in said daytalking.

Anyways - CTD, if you're up for a Reck lynch, I'll be down with that. If you want to lynch me, it's inevitable it'll happen at some point for some reason, so consider this my ringing endorsement of VMD as prob-town.

The only thing I'm up for today is a no-lynch. After that, I haven't made up my mind on who I want to lynch first. Currently still leaning towards VMD, I think.

Will deal with everything else tomorrow.

[CrashTextDummie]

What about the quote of VMD's with me vs starbuck town v town? I really think that's a particularly strong town tell.

Since your argument hinges on you being town, I naturally don't consider it a particularly strong town tell.

What do you make of her treatment of DN on D1? It's the kind of stuff you strung Starbuck up for.

[CrashTextDummie]

By the way, SerialClergyman, feel free to make a proper case against me. And not just vote-count analysis please. You don't exactly have a sparkling voting record either (you were on all major wagons as well, or in the case of your own wagon, you approved of it), so that would be... how did you put it? Utterly hypocritical.

[CrashTextDummie]

[...]but I felt Starbuck's was much less likely to come from scum [...]

Freudian slip alert.

Happy new year, by the way.

[CrashTextDummie]

Doesn't make sense. She ties Starbuck to lewarcher MORE STORNGLY than she ties SB to DN. If that's the case, lew should be scum or SB should be scum. If VMD is scum with DN, then she should be letting me tie SB with DN, not interjecting and saying the tie with lew (town in this scenario) is more important.

As you may have figured out, I am entertaining the idea that DN, VMD and Lew are all scum together. And you are currently proposing the idea that Lew is scum as well. So why then do you make an argument that's based on a scenario where he is town?

[CrashTextDummie]

I actually think it's quite spurious you'd even suggest that me being on the wagons or even 'approving of my lynch' D2 is in any way the same. I clearly did a LOT of the leg work for those wagons, and I was following my gut. Messaiah did bugger all leg work, bugger all scum hunting and followed the reasoning of someone who he voted in D1, D2 and D3. The first quote is where he votes me for my theory about Starbuck D1, the quotes on D2 are where he hammers Starbuck for that same reasoning

I am not suggesting that it's the same. I'm suggesting that you basing a case entirely on voting records, while at the same time suggesting that me doing the same would be hypoctritical, is more than a little hypocritical in itself.

I don't think my predecessors behavior is above scrutiny, but a) I'm not going to take it into account when looking for scum because I know my own role PM and b) I find your way of scrutinizing it ("he voted similarly to another guy I suspect") severely lacking.

So yes, him and Reck are almost identical in their voting actions as well as in their reasoning for their voting actions. They both have been suspicious of me all game and yet both used my reasoning to lynch Starbuck, even after both voting me at the start of D2. They also both move their votes and roughly the same time, they take up rtoughly the same spot on the wagon, which means they feel compelled to have this change of heart and roughly the same time (like when the D2 SC wagon runs out of steam?)

So your theory is that the scum are using their capacity to daytalk, which keeps you from being able to get a proper read, to facilitate obvious tandem moves onto bad wagons? Is that about the gist of it?

[CrashTextDummie]

Note also that in this post, she wants to allow for Starbuck to "become guilty by association" to DN and lewarcher. And she also re-states that she wants to keep around DN not because she doesn't find him scummy, but because she finds someone else more scummy. This is the kind of stuff that makes me very suspicious (note also that her behavior towards lewarcher

at this stage

made me lean towards town on him, this is for future reference once I analyze xRECKONERx).

My opinions tend to change as I delve deeper into an analysis. There are arguments for and against pairings between the 3 people I have so far analysed, and I am still in the process of weighting them.

Besides, the particular thing in this quote that made me doubt a VMD/Lew pairing is the fact that she wanted to lynch Lew over DN. I hadn't even considered the angle we're currently discussing.

[CrashTextDummie]

Even with the emphasis on 'at this stage', I don't know how you could EVER come to think that lew is likely to be town in that scenario after knowing SB's alignemnt is town.

Your original argument was "why would VMD try to stop me from tying SB to DN if she was scum with DN"?

Answer: She didn't. She specifically allowed for SB to become guilty by association to DN.

You then argued "why would she try to tie SB to Lew (if he's a townie)?"

Answer: because it doesn't cost her anything. If Lew comes up town, the ties that were established between Starbuck and DN don't go away.

The fact remains that she tried pushing a lynch on Lew (unknown alignment) over DN (known scum) based on weak reasoning and a weak defense for DN.

We've already established why she would try to tie Starbuck to Lew if Lew is scum.

The only question remaining is why would she push Lew if she was scum with him. The answer is distancing.

I don't know if VMD and Lew are scum together. All the above scenarios work for me, some better than others. The simple matter of fact is that VMD tried to push a weak wagon to stop the DN wagon, and that is scummy. And that is what I see as the main purpose of her post, not the tying together of people.

Your whole argument here is laced with hypotheticals which are quite frankly beside the point. I'm taking things one at a time, meaning I concentrate on VMD's scummy action and not the implication thereof.

Answer this, please:

So your theory is that the scum are using their capacity to daytalk, which keeps you from being able to get a proper read, to facilitate obvious tandem moves onto bad wagons? Is that about the gist of it?

[CrashTextDummie]

Dear SerialClergyman,

I'm off to a family thing, so I'll keep this brief. I'm getting tired of your arguments being based on "why would I"s and "why would she"s. So from now on, whenever you make such an argument, you can assume the answer to be either "I DON'T KNOW (and I don't care)" or "BECAUSE YOU'RE SCUM".

Example:
Q: "Why would I work so hard to clear a townie as scum? I need to get town lynched!"
A: I DON'T KNOW (and I don't care).
Q: "Why would I push so hard to get a townie lynched? It makes me look suspicious!"
A: BECAUSE YOU'RE SCUM.

Modify as applicable (i.e. "BECAUSE SHE'S SCUM").

I will make concessions if an argument manages to make me reconsider. Otherwise, that's the deal from now on. And before you ask, no it's not because I don't have a better answer (there are easy ones for the two example questions above), it's because I find this kind of arguing beside the point and potentionally harmful.

Now - I grant you that all of them scum is a possibility but a) I don't think it's likely and b) that's not what you originally wrote - I don't know how you ever came to the lew=town conclusion from that piece of play.

I'll say this once again, as clearly as I can:
DN was scum. VMD tried to push another wagon ahead of him based on crap reasoning. That makes me suspicious of VMD, irregardless of anything else.

It bothers me a great deal that you haven't discussed this aspect in the slightest. You're trying to dismantle my argument against her with convoluted hypotheticals about wanting or not wanting to make ties between players. Why haven't you discussed the simple fact that

she attempted to stop a scum-wagon

based on flimsy reasoning? I find your approach to this very disingenuous.

Still - this event seems to further point towards a reck lynch. If you know reck's alignment, you'll have more info about VMD's push of reck = starbuck. Plus he's in your top three. Looks like a good lynch to me (after a no lynch).

Of course knowing Reck's alignment would give me more info about VMD. Everyone's alignment would give me more info about everyone. But this doesn't make him a better lynch than VMD, because I don't use backwards logic like you. I think VMD is scum independent of Reck's alignment. I think Reck is scum independent of VMD's alignment. So the only thing for me to figure out here is which suspicion I'm more confident about. And I'm still leaning towards VMD. And I won't give you a definitive answer to this until I've analysed the rest of the players.

Last post for me today because of said family thing. I'll be back tomorrow with more analysis and discussion.

[CrashTextDummie]

I should probably stop dealing with SerialClergyman for a while after this. I don't think it's healthy for my read on the game, and if he's town, I don't think it's healthy for his read on the game either.

Having said that:

Lol. My questions aren't intended to pin you down in some logical trap, they're intended to try to get townies to reconsider their positions. When I ask why would scum work so hard to clear a townie, it's not so that I can 'beat' your argument, it's because it's a good question that I'd expect a townie to at least acknowledge within themselves. Even if your answer is 'I have no idea' - you definitely SHOULD care. It's important. And that's because it SHOULD be affecting your read. Even if it doesn't CHANGE the read, you need to at least acknowledge that there's a piece out of place.

I don't think you've presented anything that is out of place with my theory that VMD is scum. It's not that I don't care, it's that I don't care to argue with you about it anymore (unless warranted). The thing is that I

have

acknowledged and considered most of those kinds of questions you could and did bring up in any given situation, and either dismissed them or incorporated them into my analysis.

I'll say this once again, as clearly as I can:
DN was scum. VMD tried to push another wagon ahead of him based on crap reasoning. That makes me suspicious of VMD, irregardless of anything else.

Did that totally not answer the question?

You lack in reading comprehension. You asked how this post could have lead me to believe that Lew is more likely town. The answer, to spell it out once again for you is that

VMD tried to get Lew lynched over DN

. Stuff like that screams deflection to me.

---------

I'm cutting this short here because I really don't want to deal with SC anymore right now.

My next course of action is an analysis of Pug. Probably Plum/replacement after that. I'll check if there's anything for me to adress in the couple pages since my last post.

[CrashTextDummie]

Just read through KoC's analysis again, and I'm decidedly underwhelmed. About the only thing he came up with is "SC and EK" are bad, which is pretty scarce considering where he is in his read. There was one other statement on a player's alignment, and it feels contradictory to me:

Buttonmen has been quietly solid since his game-breaking attempts, which were anti-GAME rather than anti-town, and is giving me town vibes all the way through since. If we imprint anyone today I suggest him.

And yet he spent several early paragraphs of his analysis accusing Buttonmen of anti-town actions, such as:

THe Buttonmen's logic in these first couple of pages is shitty and bad and adjective

and feels scummy

in that he continues pushing it after it's shown to be these things.

(emphasis mine)

[...]the attempts by Buttonmen to force the town into his plan feel like pushing away from actual scumhunting.

Doesn't sound to me like he considered these anti-game rather than anti-town.

Not sure why VMD's LoS was "atrocious", would like an explanation for this.

She had all active players in the game as neutral or higher. The only two people she expressed suspicions on were a guy who had never posted and a guy who had posted very little. That suggests a severe lack of scum-hunting, and is therefore very scummy in my book. Plus, her case on Lew was complete rubbish. As is the fact that she abandoned these suspicions as soon as those people were replaced.

[CrashTextDummie]

Had a go at Pug. He really has played a rather clean game. The DN vote seemed pretty natural and didn't smell of bussing. There's instances in his play that subtly hint at him being pro-town and it would take a scum of considerable finesse to plant them deliberately. About the only thing that strikes me as worrying is his participation, he has 23 posts out of a total of 1093 and spent a sizable amount of his contributions on strategy discussion. But all things considered, I don't find him to be a very likely scum candidate at this point.

Not my favorite imprint target (pending further analysis), but certainly not the worst.

I'll check out Buttonmen next, then Plum/replacement most likely. I'll try to make it quick, as I find myself in rare agreement with SC, with a lack of voting, this day is considerably less fruitful in discussion as I imagine tomorrow is gonna be. Once everyone is up to speed, I don't think it's healthy to drag it out longer than necessary.

[CrashTextDummie]

Apologies for the lack of posts. I tried to get one in yesterday evening, but got white screen of death'd. I'll get one in tonight.

[CrashTextDummie]

The reason why Soc said that is he's implying you have never done anything controversial. Townies tend to, you know, be loudly wrong every now and then (*ahem*). It's somewhat of a scumtell to play an entire game without ever accusing someone innocent or getting under anyone's skin.

You know, it amazes me that SC says something like that and no one even bats an eye. You may not believe in scum-slips, but that's some very,

very

flawed logic at the very least. He considers it a scum-tell that Limerickx has never accused someone innocent when he himself is the person Limerickx

has been

accusing for a good while now. What kind of pro-town person thinks like that?

There's instances in his play that subtly hint at him being pro-town and it would take a scum of considerable finesse to plant them deliberately.

Can you elaborate on what these instances were?

They were mostly little things and the general tone of his posts, but there was one that stuck out in his Post 143:

I'm glad elvis mentioned that scum can talk during the day. It is another thing different about this game that is easy to forget and should be kept it mind. It makes it much easier for scum to cooperate during the day than in a normal game.

This quote resonates with me, because the fact that scum can day-talk wasn't on my mind either for most of the time I spent on this game. I think it takes a sophisticated scum to make a comment like that, and while it's possible that Pug was just being good-scum (I'm not familiar with his capabilites as a scum-player), I think it's more likely to come from a pro-town player.

-------------

In unrelated news, I've made a decision not to wait with imprinting/voting until I've analysed everyone anymore. I find myself fairly strapped for time in the new year, and I'm not sure I can do it in a timely fashion.

I've reread Limerickx just now, and I still think he's one of our best shots at imprinting town. I liked his early strategy discussion, I liked his latest list of suspicion and I didn't spot anything that made me worry or doubt myself too much. There's no one else in the game I can say that about.

Imprint: Limerickx
Imprint: CTD

I've liked Socrates' entry into the game. He's inquisitive and asking the right questions. While I disagree with him on SC, he's mostly in-tune with me on everything else. I don't give him much credit for the xRECKx hate, as he's part of a large crowd in that boat and if xRECKx is scum, I think it's safe to assume that he is being bussed. But I

do

give him credit for the VMD/KoC hate. He's next in line when it comes to people I would be willing to imprint, pendind a reread of Plum.

At some point, I decided that Elvis is probably town, but I don't remember exactly what prompted this. It's been a consistent gut-feeling I've been having towards her for a while now, but I don't think I'd risk imprinting her based on that.

Farside22 is my biggest blind-spot for me in the game at this point, I don't have a feel for her at all. I will reread her next instead of Buttonmen (mostly since his imprint is a done deal and there's time to evaluate him tomorrow). So yes, the big posts will continue, but I won't be stalling the game over them anymore. Expect larger contributions over the weekends from now on.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm not terribly concerned about the "quick-imprint". If anything, it makes me feel even better about Limerickx as the imprintee. I see almost no incentive for scum to imprint one of their own in this fashion. As far as I'm concerned, Limerickx was a virtual lock to get imprinted after I put my vote on, so there was no reason for scum to pull a fast one. I do see incentive for scum to quickly imprint a town Limerickx, following the same logic. He was gonna get imprinted anyway, so might as well help him get there to hopefully look good. And in the same vein, I can see a town-motivation behind the last couple votes as well, as there's really not much reason to keep the day going at this point.

In summary, I don't think the quick imprint tells us much about the people doing the imprinting, and if anything, it makes me feel even better about Limerickx.

-------

While I do share some of the concerns about TheButtonmen's recent play that Elvis has voiced, I certainly don't think it makes having imprinted him a problem that should be rectified by lynching him. It bothers me quite a bit that Elvis would even bring the idea up, much as it bothers me how strongly she's playing up the paranoia. The mechanics of this game certainly invite it (I've had my share of paranoia while mulling over who I was willing to imprint), but I think it's in the towns best interest to take it out of the equation as best as we can, not wallow in it.

Some other recent things I found interesting or problematic:

My problem of the 5 people I find scum only 2 of the players are on each wagon.

KOC - on both imprint wagons
reck - on buttonman
ctd (mostly do to messiah) on limerick's wagon.
Now if buttonman is scum there is the 3 scum left I can lean on more (reck/koc)
If limerick is scum then it would be KOC/CTD

If both are town then I would look at those not imprinting either
SC/EK/Soc

I think this is a rather simplistic and naîve way to look at things. Also, am I understanding this correctly, that you would reconsider your town-view on SC/EK/Soc if both imprinted players are town? (or am I mixing getting your town and scum reads mixed up?)

This one is in the same vein, but even more problematic:

Also, if I'm just being paranoid, and buttonmen and limerick are both town, I would expect the wagons to be all or mostly town.

The wagons being all town would make you scum. Also, would both Limerickx and Buttonmen being town make you reconsider your stance on SerialClergyman?

-----------

Comments like these irritate me:

Of the six people voting for each imprint, we have 5 people occurring on each one:

buttonmen, limerick, KoC, farside, pug

That's pretty interesting that the lists are almost exactly the same.

Wow. So it turns out, of those on that initial imprint push on D1 before DN was lynched, we have one confirmed scum, one confirmed town (starbuck) and EVERY OTHER VOTE OR NOMINATION barring one imprint from Reck all came from people who are currently on the Limerick imprint.

Essentially, whenever imprints have been decided, Serial, Elvis and Plum have been nowhere near those being imprinted.

If you find something that interesting, or so mindblowing you have to pull out the CAPS LOCK, why don't you share your own conclusions from whatever piece of evidence you're citing? At a first glance, I don't think there's anything substantial about these obvservations that will help us catch scum until we have some more bodies to work with, but by all means, enlighten me.

------------

Having said that, I'm pretty much ready to put this game to night, and I will vote no lynch within the next couple of days if no one else does. I'm looking forward to lynch both xRECKx and KoC, both of whom have been playing like dead scum walking for a while now.

[CrashTextDummie]

Okay, I think this argument is stupid. Let me know if this is what you're saying:

Scum would not quick imprint their own because it is so obviously scummy.

That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is that there was no reason to quick imprint Limerickx (in a scenario where Limerickx is scum with one or both of Pug and TheButtonman) because there was every reason to believe that Limerickx was getting the imprint no matter what. This is not like voting for a lynch where the guy on the block can talk his way out of it with a claim or a good defense and a quick lynch might have to be secured.

This leads into:

Why was he a lock? There are other people with 3-4 votes. I don't think it was decided.

My view on this may be skewered because Limerickx was my choice for imprint as well, but as far as I can see, he was the frontrunner for the second imprint for most of the day, with little to no opposition.

This is a lot of crappy doublespeak if you ask me. You share my concerns about buttonmen but you're bothered that I brought up the idea of lynching him?

I think that the idea that we can lynch somebody to prevent their imprint is an important point. If we think there are any shenanigans with imprinting, that is our last chance to right things. I'm not being inflexible here in my ideas, but I'm bringing up all our options and listening to what everyone has to say.

I should have elaborated more. The thing I agree with you about when it comes to TheButtonmen is that he has been too passive since becoming imprinted, and that he wasn't really contributing to the towns efforts to imprint another player. And while I

do

find that somewhat concerning, it doesn't change my opinion of him dramatically. Would I vote to imprint him if it wasn't already a done deal? Probably not (I've had a better feeling about Socrates ever since he replaced into the game). Is he the worst person to have an imprint? Not by a long-shot.

In principle, I don't mind the fact that you're bringing up the fact that we can lynch imprinted people as a last measure, but the vibe I get from your posts is "well, gosh, you guys imprinted a guy 15 pages ago that I'm not comfortable with anymore, have you considered lynching him?" You were in favor of his imprint when it went down, even though you didn't vote to imprint him. You were even in favor of going to night with just him imprinted. Shortly after he got imprinted, you started voicing doubts. These have now escalated to the point where you're cautiously contemplating his lynch. I get that people change opinions, but the way you've gone about it makes me feel like you're deliberately sowing confusion and paranoia among the town now that we've finally settled on imprints.

I actually thought farside's post was very good, and she draws good conclusions. I don't think it's naive. I wouldn't say that it's like the list for the firing squad or anything, you have to take the whole game into account, but her conclusions are good. Furthermore, they make me more suspicious that one or both of limerick/buttonmen is scum since I know I'm town and I am pretty sure SC is too.

Her conclusions are "all scum are on a scum imprint" and "scum only imprint scum". I'm simplifying a bit, but that's the basic gist of it.

I'm probably finding her post so problematic (and others similar to it) because it violently disagrees with what I consider a productive way to hunt scum. Why would you be willing to throw your own reads out of the window based on the one thing that scum can easily manipulate? It just feels incredibly counter-intuitive to me. I take voting and imprint patterns into consideration as well, but only once we actually have the information to judge them upon (read: dead people and revealed alignments), and then only as a supplement to my own reads.

Well then I'd have to go with the mostly option there if they're both town...

Obviously... The fact that you've even brought up the all-option suggests to me that you're not really thinking your theories through.

Limerick and buttonmen being town would not make me reconsider SC. He is town.

Socrates then?

CTD, you're right in a sense that we can't know exactly what's what until we get some more bodies or info... but that doesn't change the fact that it seems strange that it's the same 5/6 people on both imprints. That means half the game is imprinting, and half isn't. Don't you think that's ODD? I wasn't sure exactly what it meant, but I really think it means something, and I think we have to keep it in mind for later. We have to look back at it when we get more info.

You're severely misrepresenting the facts here. Only three out of nine people weren't involved in the imprinting of those two people. Of those three, one hasn't had an imprint vote on record since page 32. That would be you. Why would you consider the fact that some people weren't involved in the imprinting process odd, when you deliberately refrained from participating yourself?

And no, I don't see what's particularly odd about it. But mostly, I don't see the point in trying to read anything into it.

[CrashTextDummie]

I don't have much to say about Elvis' rebuttal, only this:

Well, I've never liked buttonmen the entire game but was thinking he was town for the breaking strategy.

Could you clarify what you mean by "like", please?

That's not the case at all. I put my 3 scum suspect
Reck. Koc and messiah (CTD) into each of those imprints and if one player imprinted is scum who I would lean on more.
KOC came under both imprints and I don't see scum eager to imprint a townie without hoping they can imprint one of their own so this edges KOC scum a little bit more.

Right, I'm feeling this is a case of misunderstanding and misremembering on my part. I remembered that you listed 5 or 6 people as scum, but I didn't remember who they were. I didn't find that list on a quick skim of your posts, but I believe your stated suspects at the time were myself, xRECKx, KoC, SC, EK, Socrates. Please correct me if I'm wrong. I was confused by your wording "of the 5 people I find scum, only 2 are on each wagon".

Still, let me try again to understand your thought process:
If Limerickx is scum, you're leaning more towards me and KoC.
If TheButtonmen is scum, you're leaning more towards xRECKx and KoC.

You are leaving Pug out of this equation because you don't suspect him, and TheButtonmen and Limerickx because you don't think they're both scum.

If neither of them is scum, you lean towards Soc/EK/SC.

Is that correct?

If the answer is yes, I have 2 follow-up questions before I pass judgement on your theorizing again:
1. Is the reversal of this also true? i.e. if both me and KoC were to turn up scum, would that point towards Limerickx being scum in your eyes?
2. Following your "scum wouldn't imprint a townie without hoping they can imprint one of their own", would xRECKx scum and TheButtonman town implicate Pug, seeing as xRECKx was trying to get Pug imprinted when he hammered TheButtonman?

[CrashTextDummie]

Yes but I can't see scum not voting town it's a bit hard to believe reading it back in my head. It's possible at least 1 is scum of the 3 that did not imprint and both players imprinted are town.

Could you rephrase that, please? I don't understand these two sentences at all.

I have one more question for you, and then I'll comment:
Does the fact that I was the only person to imprint Limerickx but not TheButtonmen make you feel better about me?

[CrashTextDummie]

First thought that came into my head upon reading SC's plans to imprint farside:
"Hell no."

He's once again "clearing" a person based on logic that simply doesn't work for me. If farside is scum, I'd expect her scum-buddies

not

to jump on the so-called "gift" that SC presented, particuarly if they are KoC and xRECKx, the two people I strongly feel are scum. They are both fairly exposed, and I'd expect them to avoid taking

any

kind of action that would implicate a scum-buddy who's in a reasonably comfortable position. Furthermore, I doubt Limerickx or TheButtonmen as scum would risk it, they already have their imprint, and I would expect them to play it safe and not be greedy. Basically, I don't think the fact that SC put an imprint vote on her and no one reacted to it tells us anything at all about her alignment.

However, I do have second thoughts, particularly after reading the reactions to his suggestion:
- First of all, I was reasonably happy with her answers to my questioning. I still disagree with her methods, but she shows internal consistency.
- Secondly, unlike the BS that SC used to start it up in the first place, the fact that no one jumped on her imprint wagon after it was 3 persons strong is a reasonable indication that she doesn't have ties. Of particular note is that neither of my two top suspects (KoC and xRECKx), nor the currently imprinted players are showing any interest. I still don't think that SC and Elvis are scum together, so I'm pretty much ruling out the chance that this is a scheme cooked up by the collective scum-team. There's scum out there who is against this imprint.
- Thirdly, I dislike the reasoning that has been put forth against this imprint. The main reason Limerickx, TheButtonmen and KoC don't want her imprinted is apparently because they don't want to deviate from the plan of having only 2 imprints. In my eyes, that's weak. If you are reasonably sure someone is town, there's no reason not to get them imprinted, plans be damned. More imprinted townies is always better. Neither of these 3 people is arguing against the imprint on the merits of farside being town or scum. I don't like that.

I'm pretty sure I forgot something I wanted to say (I'm tired), but all things considered, I'm willing to give this a shot and see where it goes.

Imprint: farside22

[CrashTextDummie]

Limerickx, how happy are you about TheButtonmen being imprinted given his play since he got the imprint?

I personally doubt we'll see a NK tonight unless we happen to imprint more than one scum, based on a theory I've been mulling over. I severely doubt there's more than one scum in the group of TheButtonmen/Limerickx/farside. So I see your NK-based thoughts as moot.

Your last paragraph I find to be flawed. If Button and you are town, the scum are in fairly deep trouble. That's strong incentive right there to get one of their own imprinted. Unless you belive farside/Elvis/SC to be the scum-team (which you ostensibly don't, otherwise your musings would be moot), townies have already joined the wagon. In your scenario, a better opportunity is probably not gonna present itself to get scum imprinted.

Farside has barely been attacked all game. As far as I remember, xRECKx is the only person to express strong suspicion of her. It would have been easy for any other player to join her imprint wagon without betraying any previous stance they took. Instead, mostly everyone is refraining because of weak strategic reasoning. Socrates is the only one who's apparently paranoid that SC and farside are trying to pull a fast one. If more people were against her imprint because of legitimate doubts of her being pro-town, I'd be much more inclined to believe that the anti-farside-imprint sentiment is pro-town driven.

[CrashTextDummie]

You're not letting me vote, farside?

I'd actually like to hear some closing thoughts from Pug before the day is over.

[CrashTextDummie]

TheButtonmen
Limerickx
farside22

That's the order I'd like to hear claims in.

In the mean time,

Vote: KoC

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm in favor of lynching/not imprinting today. We can do another round of imprints based on the flip.

I don't think there's much to take from the imprint information we got. I don't see anything that clearly indicates scum among the imprintees. The person I trust least among them is Buttonmen, but there's not enough to go on for me to accept his lynch over some other people (namely KoC).

Having said that, I don't think it's fruitful to dwell too much on last night, and that we should go back to good old-fashioned scum-hunting. Stuff like this:

tbqh this game is starting to bore me, i don't see many ways for town to win without this dragging on to D9 or something ridiculous like that.

is ridiculous. The obvious way for town to win is to lynch scum. xRECKx is making zero effort in that direction.

So let's lynch scum. I feel very strongly that stringing up KoC will achieve that goal. His predecessor has played like scum through and through (I have outlined why I think so in my first monster-post), KoC has played like dead scum walking ever since he got here.

Actually, I think I'd like to hear an up-to-date LoS from everyone. My own general feelings pending some rereading:

Probably scum, please lynch

:
Knights of Cydonia

High chance of being scum, second choice for lynch

:
xRECKONERx

have suspicions, but also some doubts

:
SerialClergyman
TheButtonmen

need to reread

:
Elvis

Currently not interested in persuing

Socrates
farside22
Limerickx
Pug89

Some comments on that:
My perceptions of SC and Buttonmen have shifted somewhat towards the end of yesterday. I still feel that SC has done some incredibly scummy stuff, but my own interactions with him have made me doubt myself. He's generally internally consistent in his madness, and seems sincere. Conversely, I still think that Buttonmen's play on D1 was largely pro-town, but his contributions on D3 in particular have been less than stellar. So I'm not generally opposed to lynching them, but see no reason to push it as long as KoC and xRECKx are around.

Elvis I feel has made some questionable plays lately (don't ask for quotes just now, I didn't take notes), and I need to get them into context with the things that made me lean town on her.

Pug89 is only in the last group because nothing much has changed since I last read him. I still think he posts too little.

That's it for now, I'll try to get some rereading done soonish.

[CrashTextDummie]

I am categorically against imprinting anyone today.

[CrashTextDummie]

Actually, I think I'd like to hear an up-to-date LoS from everyone.

I'm still waiting for this. Suspicions seem to have shifted lately, and I want to get current thoughts on record.

1) I did a reread on KoC, and I really don't see where all the scumminess is coming from. Could someone point me to a few things?

My first big analysis is filled to the brim with scummy stuff from his predecessor. He hasn't done anything to alleviate any of my concerns. He has barely posted anything of value since his initial analysis (3 weeks ago). He has pretty much ignored the accusations brought against him until just now, and only after you have thrown him a bone. The fact that he points out the "If Starbuck is scum, so is VMD" argument is laughable, considering how absolutely insignificant it is. It couldn't be more clear he is scum if he straight up confessed.

2) I think we SHOULD imprint, at least the same players as last night. If we assume that a scum player got a NK last night, if matters little if we imprint the same players again. The scum might get another ability, but since they can only use 1, reward outweighs risk in my mind. If we assume that the three players imprinted were town, then of COURSE you'd want to imprint again.

The only reason I can see to not imprint again is if you think there was a scum player imprinted, and said scum player didn't get a NK, and you think the risk of that happening is greater than the potential reward of any other info.

Several things about this:
1. We don't lose any "potential reward" at all by not imprinting. We can always imprint tomorrow.
2. We can make a more informed imprint choice tomorrow.
3. I don't think it's a good idea to blindly imprint people just because they got imprinted before.
4. I think there's a good chance that imprinting scum repeatedly is bad for us, irregardless of whether they have a kill or not.

Take all of the above, couple it with the fact that I'm not confident we imprinted 3 town players, and you have more than enough reason not to imprint today.

[CrashTextDummie]

I have also been struggling with the unbearable condition the site is in, and unfortunately, I don't have time right now for a longer post.

I will try to get in an elaborate post by this time tomorrow, detailing why I find recent developements in this game so very frustrating and outlining again why I want KoC lynched above all else.

Also, I have an advanced V/LA notice: I will be on vacation from February 8th through 12th.

[CrashTextDummie]

Oh hai there. I obviously fail at following through on my plans to post. I'm implementing my 1 post per day regiment until my vacations, so that should take care of that.

-----------------

I won't be voting TheButtonmen. I don't like the way these last half-dozen pages went, and I think Elvis and Farside in particular are using some pretty fail arguments. I'm not sure whether it's scummy from their side, or whether they're just driven by paranoia, but I'm uncomfortable with what is basically a wagon strong-armed by those two.

For the record, I corrently don't have a particularly favorable read on Buttonmen, and in different circumstances, I'd consider him a fair lynch. Those circumstances being that we have a clear as day scum on our hands in KoC. I am convinced he is scum. I am not convinced about Buttonmen.

I don't get the argument at all that Buttonmen must be lynched first because he was imprinted. Even if he is scum, we have no indication that he has a nightkill (the fact that we didn't have a kill last night suggests to me that he doesn't, as I don't see why he wouldn't have used it - the only theory that works for me in a "Buttonmen-scum had a kill" scenario is that his kill was blocked by farside, which is nothing but speculation at this point). With that in mind, I see zero reason not to lynch the scummiest player in the game right now, which is KoC.

I encourage everyone to read my analysis of VMD again. I also encourage everyone to forget about imprints (both the discussion of and voting for them) for a moment and to look at this game with pure scum-hunting in mind. I feel that the imprint-mechanics has been little more than a red herring so far, and I find the disproportionate focus on it very distracting.

[CrashTextDummie]

If you don't have a favorable read on him then why KOC over buttonman?

I'd appreciate it if you read my posts carefully, as the answer is right in the paragraph you quoted and I can't state this any clearer than I already have. I am convinced that KoC is scum. I am not convinced that Buttonmen is scum. Naturally, I think KoC should be lynched over Buttonmen.

His explanation from saying he would vig to why he didn't vig satisfies you why?

I'd also appreciate it if you didn't put words into my mouth. Just because I'm not up in arms about it like you doesn't mean I'm satisfied by it. I do think there are problems with his claim, namely that his stated worst-case scenario (misvig + scumkill -> lylo) would in general be just as bad whether there's two or three people imprinted, as in both cases he'd be the potential game-losing mislynch. In addition, the fact that we have two claimed vig-imprints strikes me as unlikely, but I try to block out this kind of reading the mod as best as I can.

These problems are counter-balanced by the fact that claiming vig in his position would be pretty ballsy play from scum, since it directly contradicts the intentions he stated earlier. I don't really see why he would make a play like that.

So yes, I do have concerns about his claim, but it doesn't push him ahead of KoC by a long shot.

[CrashTextDummie]

What do you think about buttonman and pug saying they dont' see a case on KOC? What is your view on their comments on it?

Obviously, I don't agree with them.

Frankly I don't see how anyone has a case on KoC, he hasn't done anything yet,, I'm suprised he hasn't been replaced yet actually. I'm agianst his lynch as I disagree with lynching a slot when theres still time in the day to get a replacment and for them to get up to speed and then see how they act with the slot.

There is an extensive case against VMD. Maybe you should read it.

Besides, KoC has done plenty with the slot. Like clamming up once he read the game and realized he was pinned to the wall.

[CrashTextDummie]

Knew I was forgetting something:

But I really have this deep gut feeling......

A deep gut feeling about what?

[CrashTextDummie]

By the by, the fact that Buttonman doesn't support the KoC wagon suggests to me that if he is scum, he probably didn't get a killing or otherwise majorly useful imprint yesterday. This is irregardless of whether those two are scum together. If he had the capacity to kill, I'd expect him to do more to avoid his own lynch.

I'm stating this for the benefit of the "ZOMG, we must lynch him first because if he is scum he will kill us at nite" crowd.

[CrashTextDummie]

I was kind of hoping from more on you on this. I basically wanted to see if you are so certain of KOC flipping scum do you believe scum is bussing or holding back.

I don't see the benefit in putting thoughts into this today. Ask me again when we have confirmation of his alignment.

CTD, please explain to me why there is a better chance buttonmen is town.

There is a better chance KoC is scum. I've explained why I think so. That answers your question.

Then why would he say he got a kill imprint?

As I have previously stated, I can't read minds. And as should be abundandly clear, I haven't ruled out the possibility that he's simply not scum.

Do you find it likely that a scum with the capacity to nightkill would take the fall over a weak buddy with no nightkill? You do think they are both probably scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

KoC hasn't posted since last Thursday. Buttenmen has been at L-1 since Sunday. I made an effort to get back into this game specifically because I wouldn't be surprised by a hammer from KoC when he bothers to show up again.

[CrashTextDummie]

I disagree with this thought process. (1) buttonman talked about vigging the day before and says he chose to holster the gun because 3 imprints were more dangerous and could mean scum kill. This implies scum imprinted for 1 and 2 implies a misvig which means shooting is bad and no townie should shot as an "investigation" when lynching is just fine and a town concensese.
(2) many people expressed scumminess in buttonman for wanting to vig so I can see this as modivation for scum not to kill that night if they were imprinted.

You say you disagree with my thought process and then bring up a couple of points that have nothing to do with my thought process.

If you disagree with my thought process, explain to me why Buttonmen isn't making more of an effort to stay alive by supporting the strongest counter-wagon (or any wagon with some kind of potential, really) if he has the ability to kill someone tonight.

[CrashTextDummie]

Dear Buttonmen,

please stop treating KoC like he is some kind of big void in this game, and acknowledge the fact that he has a predecessor with over 60 posts that have been analyzed and scrutinized in great detail.

Regards,
--CTD

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm explaining why I disagree with your thought about possiblely not shooting.

Then why are you quoting a post that isn't in the least bit about possibly not shooting and everything about probably not being able to shoot at all?

Also, you completely avoided my question. Or maybe you didn't:

The unsarcastic part of me wonders if they are scum together and buttonman doesn't want to bus. Now that he says he doesn't see a case he can't backtrack without good reason.

So you think that Buttonmen is sacrificing a kill for his team because he doesn't want to bus. Is that it?

[CrashTextDummie]

If I was scum I would have a NK, why wouldn't I bus?

Not a fan of this comment. At all.

[CrashTextDummie]

You know your question has it expecting me to be a mind reader on a player and how they play and do what they do right?

Not at all. And I'm not sure if you are avoiding the meat of my question on purpose, but it's bugging. I am not the least bit interested in whether you think he's bussing, not bussing, being bussed or not being bussed.

I want to know if you think it's likely that Buttonmen is scum with a nightkill given his behavior.

Yes a great deal of WIFOM in that comment but I'm trying to get a understanding of where Farside is coming from with her comments about me not wanting to bus.

That's not my only problem. But it's nice to know you are actually reading my posts.

[CrashTextDummie]

Let me state for the record that I was not satisfied by Farside's answer, as she didn't actually answer me at all.

The fact that she quoted and answered (again) to the part of my post I was decidedly and vocally

not

interested in, while ignoring once again the part that I actually

was

interested in, is rage inducing.

Needless to say, I am not terribly happy about the hammer, but let's see where it goes.

Good night.

[CrashTextDummie]

vote: Knight of Cydonia

Still the only thing I'm willing to go for.

I haven't bothered to look too deeply into yesterday's lynch, but at a cursory glance, I like Pug89 the least on it, as I don't even have a memory of how he got there.

Although I very much disliked the fact that xRECKx' hammered, I don't find it excessively scummy. The fact that he wants to no-lynch/imprint today is more of a bother, considering how adamant he was to lynch KoC yesterday.

As I've mentioned already, I will be on vacation until Friday. Hope it's not too much of a problem and feel free to lynch KoC in my absence.

[CrashTextDummie]

Ahoy there. It's been a while since I've reread this game, and I think I wanna do that with the KoC-confirmation in mind before I decide where I'd like to go with this game. Some thoughts before I do that:

1. I'm not too keen about imprinting. The pool of players I trust enough has gotten pretty small. Aside from myself, it's basically Socrates and no one else, as I have some reservations about every other player. This might change upon my reread though. But at this point, I think we're in a strong enough position to win this game nightless-style.

2. I'm not sold on RECKONER, although Elvis presents a pretty strong case. This is in part because of VMD's behavior towards his predecessor that I already discussed in some capacity, and in part because although his play these past couple of days feels scummy to me, it's not the kind of scummy I'd expect from scum in this game, if that makes sense. I know this is sort of vague and I'm not sure if it makes sense even in my own mind, but I hope rereading will make it clearer.

3. I think I like Pug as scum better on Elvis' list. I still hate the fact that he was part of the Buttonmen lynch. Will keep a close eye on him as I reread.

4. I think I want to put more focus back on SerialClergyman. This is less because of his vote on me yesterday (although it was quite wtf-worthy) and more because of some things that caught my eye on a very selective read I did overnight (basically just my own posts). He defended VMD against my accusation in a way that didn't make sense to me then, doesn't make sense to me now, and altogether didn't feel kosher to me.

5. I don't really remember what happened to make me doubt Limerickx/ortolan, will hopefully get cleared up as I reread. He may be someone I'm still willing to imprint.

6. Elvis and farside I have mixed feelings about. I consider them the driving force behind the Buttonmen lynch (and consequently the KoC-save), and it bothers me a bit that they came out of it still completely buddy-buddy. Elvis is concentrating exclusively on the "scum latched on to the counterwagon when it became feasible" angle, which I'm not sure I'm buying. Elvis in particular I've kinda let slide after a certain point, where I took her off my list for reasons I don't really remember. Will also keep a close eye on her as I reread.

7. Socrates I've also payed little attention to, but I don't feel as uncomfortable with it. I have little memory of what Plum did, but I've just felt very good about him ever since he replaced.

Naturally, all of this will be a lot more fleshed out. I think it's time for another monster-analysis (so brace yourselves!).

One question for Elvis:
Did you reread the game overnight?

[CrashTextDummie]

RECK:

So if I'm reading this correctly, you have yourself and Elvis as town, Pug as scum, ortolan/SC/farside as possible scum and Socrates as "tough to read". Where do I figure on this list?

[CrashTextDummie]

Just looking over the last couple of pages.

RECK, what happened between:

SC is my strongest town read, and I can't say why due to ongoing games.

and

Pug & [SC/ortolan/farside]. I'm not sure on the second one. Socrates is a tough read as well.

[CrashTextDummie]

And what happened between these:

You [Elvis] or farside, probably.

Why are you obvtown?

and

Imprint: xRECKONERx, elvis_knits

[CrashTextDummie]

Got caught up with my other game, reread of this one is scheduled for tomorrow.

I'm a bit flabbergasted by how today has gone so far, particularly the insistence by most people to concentrate on votecounts almost exclusively to base their imprint/lynch votes on, which I find not only lazy considering the wealth of information available in thread, but also an unreliable and ineffective way to find scum in general.

Some more general observations before I do my reread:
1. I will ignore SC's stance towards me as long as he doesn't susbtantiates it with something that goes beyond stuff my predecessor did on D1.
2. Reading his last 2 posts, it strikes me more than ever how passive Pug is. Not only does he post rarely and little when he does, he also very rarely comes up with anything original and mostly concentrates on whatever has been adressed to him in the interim.
3. From what I've gathered, Ortolan got into this game as part of a cross-replacement deal with Iamusername. I'd expect him to honor this by actually participating.
4. Elvis has been by far the most reasonable person today, which comes as somewhat of a surprise to me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Vote analysist has some meritt to it especially looking at an almost imprinted scum member.

Not when taken out of context like that. And particularly not when done like SC is doing, just taking those into account that fit his theory and disregarding those that don't.

I realize this is more of a strategy discussion, but I generally don't think it's fruitful at all to just look at votecounts and trying to deduce the scum from that. Naturally, I will take all votes into account as I reread the game, but until then, I'm gonna disregard all discussion about it.

[CrashTextDummie]

I also want CTD to explain what is so protown about Socrates. He's another vote-switcher from the KOC wagon to the buttonmen wagon, and somebody that I would like to look at more.

This is pre-reread and off the top of my head:
Ever since Socrates replaced into the game, he seemed to be very in tune with me and supported some of my views that went largly ignored by the rest of the town (like my insistance that KoC is scum). Now I haven't ruled out the possibility that he was doing this deliberately to appease me, but a) it didn't feel like it and b) it didn't seem like a thing scum would do in his position as he replaced into the game.

His move onto the Buttonmen wagon is something I will look into in more detail when I reread the relevant portions of the game, but at the time, it didn't bother me too much, as I myself was also debating making this move. While I obviously didn't come to the same conclusion as him, I can see where he was coming from from a pro-town perspective.

[...]SC may be right about CTD. Remember his comment about looking at the votes and the imprints. He's being overly defensive about this and not explain why it could be misleading.

If you want to call it "overly defensive", so be it. I've made my stance on this clear earlier in the game when I've argued against you using a smiliar analysis to do I-don't-remember-what. I'm pointing out that SC is using a scum-hunting technique that is, in my opinion, largely ineffective not to mention lazy and open to manipulation (as scum, it's easy to put any kind of spin on such an analysis). Notice that he didn't even properly analyze the vote-counts, he just posted a bunch of them and added some conclusions that didn't even take the whole picture into account (as pointed out by Elvis).

As for why they could be misleading, I'm surprised that I'd even have to elaborate. Not only are votes something scum can fairly easily throw around to cause confusion (i.e. in case someone does a lazy vote-count analysis later), there's also the small factor of town voting badly with a certain frequency. This is particularly true for D1, which seems to be the period of the game SC is largly basing his case on. Yes, those votes need to be analyzed, but by looking at how they actually got there and not by just taking a glimpse at an arbitrary snapshot of the gamestate.

In unrelated news, I'm starting my reread now. Will probably do it in chuncks of 20 pages.

[CrashTextDummie]

This is gonna take longer than expected (I guess I should have known better). I've read up to page 10. Not a whole lot of information on all the players, but there's some juicy stuff:

Far and away the scummiest player so far is SerialClergyman. His immediate jump on Starbuck for supposed scum-ties with DN, followed by a grossly disproportionate push for her lynch still makes zero sense to me from a pro-town perspective, and plenty of reason from a scum-perspective. The worst thing about it is that SC previously didn't voice suspicion of DN, so the only sensible reason I see for him to cook up this SB/DN scumpair-theory is that he tried to tie a townie to his scumbuddy. This is consistent with the fact that he's pushing for SB over DN.

I generally thought that the people who reacted critically to this at the time looked rather pro-town. Lewarcher (now RECK) stands out in particular, his Post 195 is awesome (look at those imprints!).

-------------

Based on interactions with VMD, I pretty strongly doubt that Elvis is scum. VMD's reaction to Elvis' theory that SC is town with her doesn't read to me like a bus. They actually had quite a few interactions, and I feel that way about most of them.

------------

Gleaning any more information from VMD's posts is tough at this point. Here's her scum-list from the bottom of page 10:

Obvtown (town reads on every single post):
Limerick
VMD
Pug
Messiah

Probably town (town reads on most posts but some neutral or scum reads):
SC
Elvis

Starbuck
Buttonmen

Just town of neutral (town when posting, but post moar pls):
Plum

Neutral (lol anti-town metas):

DN

Probably scum (where the fuck are you?):
Jason

Obvscum (Do I really need to explain my case again?):
lewarcher

Some musings:
I expect at least one buddy in the top category (for imprinting purposes). This points towards Pug or Ortolan scum from my point of view.

I find it notable is that she doesn't take a stance on the SC/SB situation (they're both in "probably town"), which to me indicates SC-scum.

I find it slightly weird that Plum got a category of her own.
--------------------

I find it likely that at least some scum came to the DN party early. Votes on DN so far came in this order:

Elvis
Messiah (CTD)
Plum (Socrates)

Elvis vote came too early for a bus in my opinion. She voted him before it became obvious that he was a liability to scum. This makes Plum a likely candidate for an early bus in my view. There is one other peculiar character in this scenario though, and that is Pug: He was the second person to point the finger at DN (this was before the Messiah vote), but didn't follow it up with a vote and in general pretty much ignored DN for the next 6 pages. Smells like distancing.

Limerick didn't raise any major flags. He was the first person to imprint VMD, but VMD reacted weirdly and I found Lim's reasoning for the imprint, which he provided shortly after, to be reasonable enough.

Farside was a non-entity so far.

Top 3 scum-candidates as of page 10:
SC
Pug
Socrates

[CrashTextDummie]

Just an FYI I replaced Jason in this game.

I'm aware of that. He had no posts in the first 10 pages. I just mentioned you for posterity.

Why does this give town points to elvis but not to me?

Because:
1. VMD attacked Elvis for it and largely ignored you.
2. VMD had a lot of interactions with Elvis over those 10 pages and barely any with you.

[CrashTextDummie]

Pug, why do you consider yourself the easiest lynch? From where I'm sitting, you're not top of the list for most people.

[CrashTextDummie]

You got to roll with the times! I'm really thinking you're town at the moment based on the fact known scum VMD/KOC could have hammered your imprint D3 and didn't.

This perfectly illustrates why I don't like pure vote-count analysis. Pug reached 5 imprint votes in Post 774 (his own vote) and dropped back down to 4 only 5 posts and 3 hours later when you yourself unvoted. Votecount inbetween, but no post by VMD. Of course, this doesn't mean that you're necessarily wrong (I'm obviously not that far in my reread yet, and would have to check why VMD wasn't voting him regardless in a scenario where they're scum together and he had a real shot of getting the imprint), but I just wanted to point out the danger in jumping to conclusions from looking at vote counts.

[CrashTextDummie]

I am strapped for time, so appologies for not getting my analysis out sooner. I'll add a couple chapters tomorrow.

Even without having finished my reread, I can say that I'm no fan of this wagon. It features all the players I am currrently and historically suspicious of (SC, Pug, RECK), and it lacks almost all the people I've ever trusted in this game (sole exception: farside).

I ask that you at least give me the time to finish my analysis (and Ipromise I'll make it happen in a timely fashion), we are in no hurry to lynch.

[CrashTextDummie]

Once again, I am particularly bothered by Pug's vote. I just checked up on his last couple of posts in isolation, and I don't like the way he turned on Ortolan. There is no indication that he is suspicious of him from the time he imprinted Limerickx up until ortolan replaced in.

He mostly critizising his playstyle (i.e. not reading the whole thread and stuff like that), which in general isn't indicative of scumminess and really shouldn't have been enough to turn ortolan/Limerickx from "strongest town read along with Buttonmen" to his preferred lynch. His stated reasoning for the L-1 vote is very weak in my opinion, considering the 76 pages we have to work with.

As an added bonus (since he really doesn't have that many posts), I also checked up on his Buttonmen vote, which was even worse than I remembered. He acknowledges KoC's scumminess but votes Buttonmen based on stupid "he's more dangerous" reasoning.

[CrashTextDummie]

Yeesh, I don't need to be replaced! I definitely want to see this game to the end. Very busy times for me (school started back up this week), but I know I can make it work.

Will comment on recent developements in a bit and continue my analysis asap.

[CrashTextDummie]

Actually, I can't really make heads or tails from the cluster-fuck that is the last couple of pages.

Some thoughts:

- Pug dilligently ignored my last post concerning him. I also notice how single-minded he is in his assault on Ortolan. I want to hear his thoughts on every player in the game to see where he really stands on everyone.

- I don't really get Ortolan's case against Farside. I particularly don't follow the twisted logical number he did on a quote of mine: How he concludes that (supposedly) no scum being on her imprint wagon implicates herself as scum doesn't make any sense to me.

- On the other hand, I agree with Ortolan wholeheartedly when it comes to imprints. I am against imprinting any more people as I don't see any pro-town benefit (endgame situations notwithstanding, but I haven't really put any thought in those).

- Furthermore, I don't get why Reck and Farside are suddenly at each other's throat, and I find it irritatingly distracting. Farside's switch from "he's obviously town, let's imprint him" to "die, scum, die" is irrational beyond belief and not befitting of a pro-town player. But then again, I get the impression that she's genuinely pissed at him, and that it's causing her to play badly. Cut it out, please.

- Reck is also playing irrationally, and it's bothering me more than in Farside's case, since it doesn't seem as emotionally motivated. It's certainly not enough by a long-shot to propel him ahead of my top suspects though.

CTD's more recent posts seemed a little desperate if you read them. He was looking at pug and socrates. And before that he kept saying "me love socrates long time." Because they "agreed on everything." So I think that was a buddy up move that CTD had to abandon because he couldn't get us to lynch anybody else.

Your read on me is not incorrect in a sense, but you're drawing entirely the wrong conclusion. I was kind of desperate in my last posts, because I felt the town was rushing recklessly into another lynch I didn't feel comfortable with just like with the Buttonmen lynch, and it would piss me off to no end if our win gets jeopardized here after we got ourselves into such a strong position simply because certain members of the town aren't thinking straight.

Beyond that though, I feel your remarks towards me here are very weak. I haven't abandoned anything. I am simply trying to look at this game from the beginning with an open mind, and that includes giving Plum another look since I didn't pay her much attention even before Socrates replaced in. This is a course of action that would benefit the majority of the players in this game considering the level of "scum-hunting" done this day. I have stated very clearly where I stand on everyone before I started rereading, and I don't necessarily expect those to change. That doesn't stop me from pointing out things that stand out to me if they are worthy of consideration.

And thank you for reminding me about how long I had to argue to finally get scum-KoC lynched. Maybe that should give you some pause.

[CrashTextDummie]

No. Then again, I haven't put much thought into it. I do agree with Ortolan though that we'd in all likelyhood never get a role that would allow players to become comfirmed.

I see the imprint mechanics as a huge red-herring and distraction in this game, and have since the beginning. I think it muddies the water and makes people focus on stuff that isn't all that important or telling, while disregarding the kind of stuff that actually gets scum lynched.

I was willing to give it a shot when I replaced in, and it didn't help matters at all. In fact, it was the chief reason why Buttonmen got lynched over KoC the way I see things.

Lastly, I don't think there's any need to imprint anymore people. The town has the clear edge. I'm not too keen on further imprint angst in the following days.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm pissed at myself for not arguing more strongly against the Ortolan lynch, and for the Pug lynch. I wanted to give due dilligence and reread him first along with everyone else but we all know how that turned out.

Might as well hear out what Elvis has to report. Vote is going on Pug barring any surprises.

I plan to make a case against SC in the imminent future. I also still plan on continuing my full reread, but it's not a top priority anymore. I'll work on it whenever I find the time, which might not be often.

[CrashTextDummie]

Something about him saying the imprints were useless to the town. I mean how does anyone know who was telling the truth about their imprints but the person with the claim or mafia.

Imprints have been nothing but a bother for us. They haven't provided any useful information, they contributed in no small parts to the lynch of two townies and they in general acted as nothing more than a red herring, which

some

players happily pursued.

This is irregardless of whether I believe the imprinted people were telling the truth. I don't even know where this line of thinking is coming from. Either the imprinted people were telling the truth, in which case we gained nothing from the imprints, or an imprinted person was not telling the truth (hint: that would be YOU, farside), in which case we gained nothing from the imprints.

I'm willing to hear Elvis out. But I'd be surprised if she got anything substantial.

[CrashTextDummie]

Color me surprised, that is quite substantial, assuming Elvis is telling the truth.

Kind of surprised that she wants to go after Reck. Don't tell me I have to make a case against Pug as well...

No one knew if Ort was telling the truth and I sure didn't so I wasn't sure the imprints were useless.

If Ort was telling the truth, his imprint was useless. If Ort was lying, his imprint was USELESS. We're talking from a town-perspective here. I really don't understand what's so hard to understand. I stand by my stance as of yesterday. Elvis claim does put a spin on things.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm certainly not after Pug for lurking. It's the way he turned on both Buttonmen and Ortolan, who were his top two town picks for almost the entirety of the game beforehand. It's also the fact that his reasoning for this was very weak (granted, I felt the cases against both players were weak to begin with; I assume not everyone will agree), and certainly not sufficient to explain the complete U-turn he did on those two. It's to a certain extain the methodical way he has gone about these things, I don't get any uncertainty or doubt from him (I didn't see or sense a thought-process that would have made him change his mind over time on those two players), only calculation. And then there's also his behavior towards KoC during his lynch, which I haven't actually put much thought into, but was Ortolan's main point against him. There's more, but I'd have to (wait for it...) reread.

CTD and SC what do you have to say about the "useless" of the imprints now?

The power Elvis claimed is certainly useful. That doesn't really change my opinion that imprints are more trouble then they're worth (prior to today: a lot of trouble, zero worth; today: still a lot of trouble, a little worth).

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD has had some really pro-town moments and thinking. He wanted KOC dead for a long time. But, his sparse posting, especially over the last day or two makes me nervous. He hardly helped at all yesterday, and now he comes in saying "oh man, I wish I had fought harder against the ortolan lynch and helped lynch pug." WELL, WHY DIDN'T YOU? It would have helped!

2 reasons:
a) I was incredibly strapped for time. My other game suffered from this as well.
b) I wasn't prepared to more strongly oppose the Ortolan wagon without rereading first to make sure my read was correct, to sustantiate said read and to make a strong case against Pug.

To put it simply, my plan to do a complete reread was too lofty for me to execute, and I didn't make good use of my limited time.

-------------

@Farside:

I don't get your latest post. You say you think I'm scum with Pug, but then you provide reasons for thinking Reck and SC are scum. Could you clarify please?

-------------

For the record again:

I think Pug and SC are the last scum. The former in particular is incredibly obvious at this point. I'm surprised this isn't an open and shut case. If people really need further incentive to lynch him, I can whip up a more detailed case either tomorrow or Sunday. The SC case is after that (though my initial case against him already has a lot of stuff on him, I encourage you to reread it).

As for everyone else: I've ruled out Elvis as scum, and farside isn't too far from that. This is due to Elvis' interactions with VMD and her general play in her case, and Elvis' imprint claim and some general behavior in farside's case. If I need to elaborate, I will. RECK I also have serious trouble seeing as scum, due to VMD's actions and the developement of his play over the last bunch of days. Most of the stuff people like farside are throwing at him are things I really don't see scum doing.

The only person I would only be somewhat surprised to be wrong about at this point is Pulindar. I didn't like his entry into the game (this, I

will

elaborate on), and I'm considering the possibility that Socrates slipped by me with his ingratiations. It's a very weak suspicion though. I think I have this game figured out.

Vote: Pug

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm actually not ready for the day to end either.

Unvote

.

SC needs to post, he hasn't provided anything of substance yet today, which is particularly irksome coming off his push against Ortolan.

Pulindar is somewhat freaking me out with his play today, and I want to reread his predecessors.

I'm not comfortable with a lynch before those two things happen.

[CrashTextDummie]

Checked up on Plum. Read is somewhat conflicted, but overall pretty good.

What bothered me about her play is how she balanced slight attacks with defenses when it comes to VMD (scum) and SC (one of my top suspects). Both players she attacked on a more or less regular basis, but most of the time, she changed her mind halfway through her long-ass posts and ended up actually defending their actions. This kept both of them in her focus, but always out of reach from her vote, which could indicate distancing. This was particularly irritating on D2, when she took part in the Starbuck wagon. All of this is counterbalanced by the fact that I don't find it very likely that a scumbag would heavily bus one buddy while distancing from another (possibly two) in a game with these mechanics. Not impossible, but not very likely.

On the plus side, her scum-hunting seems pretty genuine. Apart from the SB vote, which still doesn't make sense to me, I didn't get the impression that she tailored her opinions to an ulterior motive. Despite my problem with the way she behaved towards VMD, calling attention to her when it wasn't the cool thing to do is a plus in my book (particularly since she was a contender for an imprint on D1). As is the strong presence on the DN wagon. She was pro-Limerick, pro Elvis, and somewhat pro-Buttonmen when it comes to imprinting (though she was largely ambivalent towards the latter around the time he was imprinted, she seemed to be pretty cool about it).

On the whole, her body of work here feels decent to me. Reading Socrates' part of the game next.

[CrashTextDummie]

Reread Socrates. Not as good as I remembered it.

I didn't really realize it back then because I was so glad to have support against KoC, but his suspicions were pretty crappy apart from the KoC-hate. He voiced suspicion against both Limerick and Buttonmen, and planted the seed of doubt on their claims that contributed to the Buttonmen lynch. On the other end of the spectrum, he had SC down as town for most of his stint, for no reason that is apparent to me. In fact, the first instance where he firmly states his pro-SC stance is fairly bizarre to me. How can arguing with a player reinforce your town-read on a different player? This is particularly bothersome to me because he never acknowledged the fact that I posted an extensive case against SC myself way-back (other than his "CTD's megaposts probably mean he's town" stance). I don't feel like his suspicion of Limerick was strong enough to justify using his attack against SC as a decisive point in the latter's favor.

Even more bizarre is his behavior around the farside imprint. Suddenly, he gets very paranoid about SC for a moment, before making a U-turn and voting to imprint farside himself. Before and after this incident, he has SC firmly on the town-end of his list of suspicion.

His Buttonmen vote, while certainly not a stellar act of pro-townness, still doesn't bother me much. It didn't come out of the blue (he was anti-Buttonmen since he replaced in), and I can see it coming from frustrated town.

Finally, his actions post-KoC-lynch have not been very encouraging.

The two things that made me like him in the first place, wanting KoC dead dead dead, and supporting me in my suspicions and strategy stances, I still view as pro-town, because I sorely needed it in a town behaving like headless chicken. But I can see the former as a bus and the latter as buttering me up.

It's not enough to turn my read completely around, but it does make me waiver.

[CrashTextDummie]

Btw, if it wasn't obvious, I'm investigating the possibility of a SC-Pulindar scumteam (or a Pug-Pulindar scumteam to a lesser extent). This is because I'm not comfortable at all with how passive both Pulindar and SC have been today. SC, after a day in which he lead the lynch against ortolan using a dazzling flurry of faulty or misleading evidence and speculating wildly on scum-pairs, has come up with

nothing

so far. No suspects, no leads, no participation. Pulindar, similarly, seems at a loss (he had "nothing to add" at the beginning of a new day and having the benefit of a fairly fresh read-through). Of particular note is that he hasn't commented on Pug

at all

today, opting instead to get into a brief, fruitless and lazy argument with farside.

While I do think it's possible that one of them is scum with Pug and not wanting to bus, I also find it distinctly possible that they are scum together and hoping for the collective remaining town to mislynch. Of course, the problem with this theory is that Pug is genuinly scummy on his own.

I will finish my analysis of Pulindar's playerslot (and comment on some stuff that bothered me about his initial analysis that I didn't get around to at the time) and then reread Pug before I make up my mind on which scenario is more likely. Naturally, an SC reread would also help, but my time is short and I can't make any promises.

[CrashTextDummie]

I object to a hammer, Elvis. I have to run now, but I'll have a post within 2-3 hours.

[CrashTextDummie]

Right, let's get this out of the way first.

I'm not really comfortable with a Pug lynch anymore, for two reasons:

1. The behavior of Pulindar today, which bothers me greatly for reasons I'll get into in another post. It doesn't feel right to me. However, I don't get the feeling he's scum with Pug, as I would expect him to play more agressively if that were the case (either by bussing or by pushing for another lynch).
2. The behavoir of Pug and the general progression of today. For one, I don't find Pug's lack of drive to avert his own lynch particularly indicative of him being scum. It's been a consistent theme for him all game long, and I never really found him scummy for it. And while I don't find his defense against the various points against him terribly convincing, I feel like I'm not looking at him objectively anymore (the fact that I just lost a game because I lynched a player I felt similarly about ma be contributing to this feeling) - he's right when it comes to one thing: farside imprinted and lynched both Buttonmen and Ortolan as well, and I don't think she's scum. If one town-player makes a bad play, it doesn't mean that another wouldn't make the same bad play.

But even more than by my second guessing when it comes to reading Pug, I'm concerned about the way this day went. All the people pushing for the Pug lynch are people I don't think are scum. And the people who are nonchallant about the lynch and basically display a stance of "it doesn't really matter who we lynch" are the people I suspect besides Pug. The way SC and Pul act is not how I expect scum to act when their last remaining buddy is on the chopping block.

----------

To sum it up, I'm confused about Pug and I'm confused about Pul. They're both players (or playerslots in Pul's case) I've felt good about previously and that I'm now having very conflicting thoughts on.

The one player that still sticks out to me like a sore thumb is SerialClergyman, who has played the whole game in scum-fashion, has very little redeeming qualities about himself over the course of almost 90 pages and is my preferred lynch for today. We can figure out the other scum from there.

Vote: SerialClergyman

I will make another post tonight dealing with Pulindar, since it won't take much time. But after that, it's time for an updated case against SC.

[CrashTextDummie]

Pulindar thankfully doesn't take long to reread.

The first thing that struck me about his initial analysis of the game is that he had a strong scum read (ortolan), a strong town read (RECK) and a whole lot of weak in-the-middle reads. This feels manufactured to me (apart from the fact that it betrays his later statement that he "wasn't really scumhunting", there certainly was no hint of "I'm only really hunting for town here" when he was going after Ortolan yesterday).

The second thing that struck me is his treatment of me. It's striking me even more now that I've inexplicitly ended up on top of his scumlist. His opinion when it comes to me is inconsistent: He quotes a post where I discuss vote-count analysis as a reason to turn his opinion of me around because everyone "makes strategic mistakes" (which doesn't make sense to begin with, how is me pointing out a strategic mistake indicative of me being scum?), only to commend me later on in his analysis for

another

post where I discuss vote-count analysis in pretty much the same way.

The only other reason he has to justify his "slight scum read" on me is a post that "just doesn't feel logical". That's it. No word on exactly what doesn't feel logical or what makes it such a "terrible" post.

Of course, I can't help but be insulted by his calling some of my posts "terrible", because I've played a damn good game so far. But even if he

does

genuinly feel that some of my posts have been terrible, he states himself that it's not a "content inconsistency", so how this translates into a "slight scum read" doesn't compute at all. It feels like he's keeping his options open to attack me later, and would you look at that, he does today.

------------

Next up is a post in which Pulindar considers the merits of lynching the player he most strongly thinks is town:

His manner is a huge part of my thoughts with him. He stays consistent with it. He knows that the goal of town isn't always to live, but to gather information. it's better if they live, but best if they get information. A lynch on Reck would show us (If he flips town) that his cases were not being swayed by scum. They won't say those cases are correct, town often attack town, but they would say that they weren't swayed by scum. It's less of a risk to mislynch a townie who gathered alot of information than one who did nothing. still, the one who did nothing might just be pulled along by scum in the later game if that's all that is left.

Who the hell does that?

-----------

He ended the day thinking farside is town, he started the next day attacking Farside. What? Of course, there's the whole "I thought it said you had the doc role on subsequent nights" thing, but that equally doesn't make sense. If she had had a role on subsequent nights, she would be scum, not "I suspect you might be".

------------

that means that if he flips town there are still two people who are scum, and if he flips scum there all you need to do is find his partner

All

you

need to do? Scumslip alert.

Same post, different issue:

The way I see it, from everything I've seen so far I'm positive that both Farside and Elvis are both town. If we don't imprint, then we can lynch everyone else in any order and town still wins.

Wrong. If we just leave Farside and Elvis and lynch everyone else in the wrong order, we definitely

lose

. Statements like these are why I'm bothered by the kind of attitude he's displaying today. It feels like scum trying to lull the town into a false sense of security. This quote is just flat-out wrong and misleading. Also of note is the fact that RECK isn't part of his "definitely town" group anymore, even though he was adamant about it when he replaced in. This is particularly striking because a third town player on his list would make his proposed plan actually work.

-----------

His latest post actually made me laugh out loud:

Well, if you get technical, I don't remember mentioning CTD, Pug, or SC. I wasn't really scum hunting to be honest. I was town hunting. That's the reason I questioned Farside so much when I thought she was town. I wanted to make as sure of it as possible. That's also why I questioned Elvis so hard. If scum don't have any NKs then all we need to do is determine 2 town and let the game play out.

Remember when he accused farside completely illogically and conceded he was playing terribly this game? It was all part of his brilliant town-hunting!

Again, his claim that he wasn't scum hunting rings false to me. It certainly didn't seem like he was town-hunting yesterday. It's not his "hard questioning" of Elvis that convinced him she was town, it's her meta which was provided by farside. And his participation in the Ortolan lynch most definitely didn't stem from a desire to just "let the game play out".

--------------

Longer than I expected. I'll try to keep the SC case more concise.

[CrashTextDummie]

Dear farside,

when this game is over, I'm going to go on a rant about how this town suffered from stubborn players who refused to consider other opinions even if they made perfect sense, and how at least two completely idiotic town-lynches could have been avoided if people knew what a decisive case looks like when it hit them in the face, and didn't just glance over it because they refused to take their fucking blinders off.

I'm not going to flat-out tell you to not vote Pug, because I don't know if he's town or not. I don't even know anymore what I find more likely at this point. All I'm asking is that you read my posts and fucking consider them for a change. Do you think SC, your #2 suspect is playing like he is scum with Pug? Do you think Pulindar, your #3 suspect is playing like he is scum with Pug?

I know you're suspicious of SC, so I won't have to post a case to convince you of his scumminess. Just consider for a second all the scenarios in which Pug is scum and all the scenarios in which SC is scum, and tell me which ones you find more likely.

You're far from the only person guilty of this behavior (I'm looking at you, Elvis), so don't take this personally. I just needed to vent.

[CrashTextDummie]

^above post pisses me off to no end. Biting my tongue and sleeping over it lest this game turns ugly.

I do have game-related stuff to say about it. It'll have to wait.

[CrashTextDummie]

Fuck that.

Farside, the fact that you're willing to stoop as low as to call me a lurker when I have more posts than I have spent days in this game by a fair margin, have spent

all

of them trying to get scum lynched and opposing town wagons and have pulled more than my weight when it comes to posting analysis, in order to justify your not listening to sound logic just goes to show that my post 2186 was long overdue.

[CrashTextDummie]

I think the main game-related thing I'm taking out of all this is that CTD is now opposed to the pug lynch and pro a Serial lynch. Is that a fair statement to make? When did you make that mental transition? What are your feelings about RECK?

It is a fair statement to make.

I've felt RECK was probably town for a couple of days.

Pul replaced Socrates. CTD had a crush on Socrates, probably because Socrates agreed with everything CTD wrote. Now that Pul suspects CTD, CTD switches his stance on Pul. I think he has some fair points on Pul (contemplating lynching reck, who he thinks is town). However, the scumslip thing he points out does not seem like a slip to me. It just seems like awkward phrasing. And I don't like that CTD is trying to call it a slip.

My suspicions of Pul have very little to do with him suspecting me. It has quite a lot to do with

why

he's suspecting me. The two reasons he's stated either don't make sense or aren't sufficiently substantiated. They certainly don't make a case worthy of placing me at the top of his suspicion list.

Supposed scum slips are always to be taken with a grain of salt, and your opinion that it was just awkward phrasing in this case is not unreasonable. I certainly wouldn't lynch a player just for that, but it adds to my suspicion of Pulindar.

I don't like that he is now arguing against Pug, saying that Pug's contributiong have been consistent throughout and they don't really bother him. THEN WHY WAS HE ARGUING TO LYNCH PUG FOR SO LONG? I don't get it.

I would appreciate it if you didn't misrepresent me (the same goes to farside, who does it even worse). I've never argued to lynch Pug because he didn't contribute much or played passively (which seems to be your number 1 reason to lynch him). I've argued to lynch Pug because of his involvement with the Ortolan and Buttonmen wagons.

I am wary of CTD's biggest suspects being his biggest attackers (SC and Pul).

And why is that? SC has been among my top suspects ever since I replaced into this game (hint: that's before he started voting me over scum-KoC because of "gut"). As for Pul, you say I have some fair points against him, can you say the same about him?

For the record, I don't consider SC and Pul to be my biggest attackers. They don't have any case to speak of against me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Changing reads of people is not really a bad thing. Often it is a sign of being town. You have to react to the new info, and scum hunting often involves changing your mind or admitting you were wrong about something. However, CTD's changes seem a little convenient to me. Soc was helpful to CTD, so CTD wasn't attacking him. Pul replaces and suspects CTD, and all the sudden CTD says Pul is one of his top suspects. New players often give a chance for a fresh look -- but I would think CTD would listen a little more to his prior town-read on Socrates.

Elaborate on what seems convenient about it to you. Pulindar replaced in and made me raise my eyebrows almost immediately, so I reread his playerslot, realized that I had probably given Socrates too much of a blind eye, and reevalued the game accordingly.

This is really bad, IMO. Pug "has played a clean game"!!!!!! Lurker extraordiaire who votes to lynch people he imprinted. Although, to be fair, I don't htink the imprinting/lynching stuff had happened when CTD wrote this. However, I see little reason for CTD to be this complementory of Pug.

He had played a clean game. If he is scum, I was unable to find a trace of it in the posts I had available to me at the time I made the analysis. That's all this statement means.

And yeah, I don't see how I am supposed to be able to analyse stuff from the future.

I think this is REALLY weak. I brought up that scum can day talk, so pug goes, "yeah, we should be careful." And pug thinks this comment mean pug is town, and it is somehow too sophisticated for scum to say something like that?? I don't agree, at the very least. And I can see this is scum trying to make their buddy seem town.

His comment matched exactly my own thought process. I had also forgotten about the daytalking at that point in my read, and when a player operates along the same lines as me, it makes me feel better about them.

I don't think I need to explain why forgetting about the daytalking is pro-town. The only issue here is whether this was actually the case for Pug, or whether he faked it. And I maintain that it takes thoughtful scum to have the presence of mind to make a post like that.

-Says he needs a reread of Pul.
-Concerned Pul may be pug's buddy. Thinks pug-pul or pug-SC is the scum team.
-OR MAYBE IT'S JUST PUL AND SC!!!! Pug all the sudden becomes town in CTD's eyes, and the two people who are suspecting CTD -- SC and Pul are the new scum team.

I can't tell whether you're misreading me deliberately or whether I really didn't make myself clear on this. Either way, it's a gross misrepresentation of my thought-process. I didn't reread Pul out of concern that he might be Pug's buddy. I reread him specifically because I was concerned about SC/Pul. I did consider Pug/Pul because Pug

didn't

suddenly become town in my eyes. I really don't know where you are getting this from.

^^^This last quote seems so crappy to me. Pug is not trying to save himself so he must be town??? Followed by more WIFOM diarrhea.

Here I can actually understand why you'd get the wrong idea, because I could have worded it better. I'm not saying that Pug not trying to save himself makes him town. I'm saying that him not trying to save himself shouldn't make him the default-lynch. The only reason I adressed this to begin with was your "he's either scum or lazy town, so let's lynch him" sentiment, which I never find very persuasive, and even less so in this case.

CTD is either smoking the bad WIFOM reefer, or he is scum.

Or he's right.

[CrashTextDummie]

1)Why aren't you bothered by pug's low volume of posts? You made specific accusations about SC and Pul not contributing enough so I don't understand the difference.

The reason I'm not particularly bothered by his low volume of posts is that I read him as town for a significant amount of time in spite of it.

My accusations against SC and Pul are not really related to what you're accusing Pug of. In SC's case, it's the fact that he's suddenly taken a stance of "I don't really care who we lynch" after he spent the entire previous day analysing vote-counts to get Ortolan lynched. The fact that his reaction to Ort's town-flip was basically "meh, it was a 1/4 chance" is ludicrous to me. In Pul's case, it's the complete lack of any stance whatsoever (apart from his town-reads, which are the same as everyone else's), which bothers me since he's fresh in the game and should have gotten something out of whatever reading he's been doing. I'm not being the "I'm town-hunting" excuse, it's not reflected in his play yesterday.

2)What has pug done to make your suspicions (about flip on Orto and button) go away?

My suspicions haven't gone away. I'm just not as convinced about them anymore (to avoid the follow-up question: my doubts did not come from anything Pug did).

[CrashTextDummie]

I understand your position, Elvis.

I'll post my case on SC (irregardless of whether Pug is lynched first, and irregardless of what he flips) and then we'll talk again.

Just one thing, since you reminded me of it with your questioning of my earlier town-read on Pug. I happened to pose a similar question to SC way-back-when, do you think he handled it better?

[CrashTextDummie]

And for that matter, how did you like his justification for having VMD on his town list?

[CrashTextDummie]

Since I don't wanna lose anymore sleep over this game, I'm not gonna react to farside's goading.

Here's something to cheer about instead:
As of tonight, this game is the largest mini in terms of game posts in the history of mafiascum.net. Yay?

[CrashTextDummie]

Pulindar, why do you think SC is probably town? You started your stint with a "null read, maybe slight scum" and haven't comment on him at all in the mean-time (unless I missed it).

[CrashTextDummie]

I'd appreciate not being quick-lynched.

I still believe he was trying to detour the wagon on Pug.

Yeah, no kidding.

Someone post a proper case against me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Since a quicklynch seems likely, I want to get this out quickly. No rereading, all from memory.

Reasons why SC is scum:

1. Pushed Starbuck over Deathnote on D1 in an attempt to "clear" DN. Also suggested several imprinting schemes involving himself, Elvis, Deathnote and Starbuck that are all horrible if he's town and great (for him!) if he's scum.
2. Spearheaded the horrible lynch against Starbuck on D2.
3. Was suddenly out of ideas on D3 and wanted to imprint (after spending the previous day preaching a "no imprint, just keep lynching people" policy).
4. Repeatedly offered to be lynched.
5. Defended VMD against my attacks using craplogic.
6. Voted to imprint Pug on D3 (the wagon that got to I-1). Couldn't offer reasoning substantial enough to justify placing him in his town-list.
7. Said town-list included both remaining scum and Buttonmen, who he turned on just one day later.
8. Did some flip-flopping on KoC (a bit of wavering, but never strong support for the wagon) and settled on voting me over him for "gut" shortly before his lynch (

that's

what deflection looks like, farside)
9. Used flawed and selective vote-count analysis to push a lynch against Ortolan.
10. Once again seemingly lost interest in scumhunting yesterday and claimed that the Ortolan lynch was just a "1 in 4 chance anyway".

There you have it, 10 reasons why SC is scum. He's played every single day in a scum fashion, has

very

little redeeming qualities in his play and should be lynched.

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD: Who is scum? You had yesterday an idea that it was Pul and SC and tried to get people to listen to lynch one of them over Pug.

Yes, I was paranoid about an SC/Pul scum-pair. I wanted to lynch SC, the person I felt most strongly about all game long (apart from KoC) and would have weighted Pug against Pul after the SC flipped.

Turns out my paranoia was unfounded. I maintain that lynching SC first would have led to the same result.

Also I'm finding it hard to believe that the imprint day 1 for VMD was missing 2 scums.

Do you find it easier to believe that the Pug imprint wagon on D3 was missing 2 scums?

Oh and the best scum tell of all time comes from CTD here

Yeah, I regret making that post. Teaches me not to let my frustrations show in-game.

Whatever you do, don't imprint Reck.

[CrashTextDummie]

4> how is that scummy?

Townies generally don't advocate their own lynches. Scum do to incite WIFOM.

5- quotes please

Click me

6 - quotes please

Click me

[CrashTextDummie]

Imprint: farside, elvis, Reck

Honestly I have that little voice telling me I could be wrong about Reck, but if I'm wrong about CTD it might be informative having him with an imprint

Seriously, please reconsider. There is no reason to jeopardize the game like this at all. There are two people getting imprints who we feel safe about. Just keep Reck nice and vanilla so you can lynch him in endgame, in the unlikely case that he is scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

Actually, IME scum tend to be more keen on their individual survival.

Agreed. Getting lynched still stands in direct opposition to a pro-town players win-condition. It hurts the town. So a sane townie should never advocate their own lynch. Of course, you could argue that the same is true for scum, but they have a different motive for doing it: gambitting.

But SC wrote this on Dec 31... which is a long time ago in terms of the game days and just realtime. Lots of the things that made pug scummy hadn't happened yet.

SC wrote it to justify placing Pug on his town-list and voting to imprint him.

And also, CTD, you said similar things about pug, but you sad it YESTERDAY while trying to derail the pug wagon.

I don't see how I said similar things yesterday. I did say similar things when I replaced into the game, but it didn't put him on top of my town list and didn't make him a candidate for imprinting.

I am completely unappologetic about trying to derail the Pug wagon.

[CrashTextDummie]

The only point in his favor is pushing for KOC lynch. However, that could easily be bussing since KOC was a sucky lurker.

I pushed for VMD before she even became KoC.

Let me complete the picture you're painting here:

I replaced into the game and immediately pushed for one of my buddies.
I maintained this push for 2 days until he was lynched.
I then pushed for my other buddy.
I maintained this push again for 2 days, only to back down once he was at L-1.
In the mean time, I voted to imprint two town players and avoided any and all town-wagons.

If you find this scenario likely, you ideas of how scum actually plays need a do-over.

[CrashTextDummie]

Not sure how serious you are, Elvis (what with the smiley), but whatever.

CTD replaces into this game and he's scum with two lurker buddies and a bunch of townies confirming each other. He's thinking: FUCK!

Except at that point in time, no one was confirming each other (well, apart from you and SC, which didn't exactly work for most everyone else), Pug was close to getting imprinted and VMD was getting very little flak.

CTD lurks for a while, making weak suggestions to lynch Pugbuddy, while letting the townies gang up on Ortolantownie.

I still object to being called a lurker. I made every effort to provide content and analysis with the limited time I had, and even for the day where ortolan was lynched, I have a good post/RL-day ratio. I also disagree that my attack against Pug was weak.

CTD chastizes us for lynching Ortolan while we should have lynched pug, but says he needs a reread.

Wrong. I actually specifically stated that I

didn't

need a reread when I chastized you for lynching Ortolan over Pug.

CTD abandons all lines of attack on his buddy pug now that other people want to lynch pug (cause bussing at this point is not going to work since people are connecting them anyway).

We discussed this yesterday. I had my reasons for abandoning the Pug wagon (which is not = "abandoning all attack"). I also don't really get your logic here: I'm bussing all game but when a couple of people list us at the top of their scum-list, I get cold feet? No one was actually connecting me to Pug until

after

I didn't want to lynch him anymore (you even mentioned feeling better about me in case he came up scum). Pulindar and SC had me at the top of their list for seemingly no other reason than process of elimination.

[CrashTextDummie]

SC's D1 hammer is not a strong point in his favor, due to his immediate reaction to KoC coming up scum, which was "well, at least I stopped one scum getting imprinted when I hammered DN" (paraphrased). This kind of self-awareness indicates gambiting when it comes to imprints, as does the behavior of known scum in general (i.e. VMD not helping Pug when he was very close to getting imprinted).

Known scum's reaction to his hammer is also not a strong point in his favor. Pug never voted him (as far as I can see from looking at the vote-counts) and VMD abandoned her attack after SC was lynched (going after my predecessor instead) back to him after Starbuck was lynched. I can easily see this as a deliberate reaction to what the scum thought would get SC in trouble (it's notable that SC seemingly wasn't aware of the pro-town implications of his hammer, notably the fact that he didn't cost the town anything with it, and concentrated exclusively on the "I stopped scum from getting imprinted" angle when defending himself).

Something else scummy about CTD is that he has been pretty stingy with imprints this game, and not really trying to get anybody else imprinted. And ever since we arrived at the realization that farside and elvis are town, he hasn't been imprinting anyone! AND he tried justify it later with "imprints are probably useless, so let's just forget about them."

1. I imprinted Limerickx and farside, the former being town, the latter very likely being town (I'd argue that I was the tipping point in getting farside imprinted, as it swayed Socrates and Limerickx, IIRC, who were both initially against it).
2. Ever since we arrived at the realization that farside and elvis are very likely town, my votes weren't needed to get them imprinted. If they were, I would have given them.
3. At the time I opposed imprinting, they had been useless. We had gotten no info and powers that were dangerous in the hands of lesser players, not to mention the inherent danger of imprinting scum. I was upset that imprinting votes were used to lynch players that had no business being lynched and consequently tried to put a stop to it. We still haven't gotten very much out of imprinting, all the last two nights have been good for is us being even more sure that farside is town (something that wasn't in very much doubt to begin with). Are you honestly suggesting that imprints have done us more good than harm?

I mean, if you were scum and DN had died trying to get the whole team imprinted, and then everybody on the team had failed to get an imprint the entire game, and we were only imprinting a couple town players repeatedly... wouldn't YOU say imprints are useless and we should just forget about them??

Scum had it in their hands to get one of them imprinted. The VMD wagon on D1 lacked Pug (and also the 4th scum, which I realize is obvious to me only). The Pug wagon on D3 which got to I-1 lacked VMD (and also the fourth scum in the proposed scenario where I am scum). It's clear to me that the scum weren't as interested in getting themselves imprinted you would expect.

--------------

As an excercise, read back on the last couple of days and look for instances where a player tried to cast doubt on Elvis or farside, one of which the scum in all likelyhood need to get rid of if they want any hope of winning this game. And yes, I'm thinking more of Pulindar than SC here. That's the kind of behavior you'd expect from scum in this situation, aside from simply not trying anymore.

[CrashTextDummie]

Since I'm not planning on participating much in post-game, let me get this out now:

This wagon is bad and you should feel bad.

The case against me is weak. I have defended myself well against it. My pro-town motivation is evident in everything that has been brought up against me. I hate being lynched, and I particularly hate being lynched when I've played as well as I've played here. My voting-record in this game is absolutely spot-less (or nearly so if SC in fact isn't scum).

Lynch SC, Pulindar, Reck in that order. Do not under any circumstances imprint anyone other than farside and Elvis.

[CrashTextDummie]

This is the way I think of it CTD. Unless EK is scum the town is going to win.
There is no way for SC to try and point to me or EK as scum without looking scummy himself. The only person who has justification in being concerned with being lynched is scum.
I would lynch Reck before I think EK that is how sure I am she is town.
If that loses me the game well kudo's to her for being able to doing an incredible job.

I'm more then willing to let you write up your views on pul, sc or even Reck but in the end I'm still going to lynch you.

I am perfectly justified in not wanting to get lynched. I don't deserve it after how well I've played. I haven't been lynched as town since one of the earliest games I've played.

I'm not putting this much effort into a game I know I can't win. Look at SC, Pulindar and Reck and compare them to yourself, Elvis and myself. They've all been on auto-pilot for a good while. Two of them are lazy, one of them is scum who stopped trying.

[CrashTextDummie]

I've been ignoring Reck for a while now, but this is getting ridiculous. The only hope any non-farside, non-Elvis scum has of winning this game is getting imprinted. There is no reason for any non-Elvis, non farside townie to want to be imprinted, unless they had serious doubts about one of those two.

So Reck, for a couple of days now, has done nothing but suggest the scummiest thing imanigable at this point in the game, and he really ought to be shut up.

[CrashTextDummie]

farside, I've tried repeatedly to get you to understand my reasons for not wanting Pug lynched, and I don't understand what there is not to get. So I'm not trying anymore. If you really think I'd bus both my scum-buddies in a row in a game where I can't NK, you're beyond help.

[CrashTextDummie]

I disagree with this comment. You seemed to push with the idea that SC/Pul were a scum team.
Lets say for the sake of argument SC was lynched and flipped town would you be pushing for Pul over Pug the next day?

Probably not.

You pushed the idea of Pul/SC scum team over lynching Pug. A complete 180 from how you started the day.

A) I did not do a complete 180. Pug did not turn from "OMG scum" to "obv town" (or any kind of town for that matter).
B) Consequently, I did not push the idea of Pul/SC scum over lynching Pug. I pushed the idea of lynching SC over Pug, because I was more sure about him and less sure about who his partner was than I was before.
B) Stuff happened between the start of the day and my change of heart. I didn't just change my stance for no reason at all. The way SC and Pul played concerned me. I felt I made the correct play under the circumstances.

[CrashTextDummie]

What the hell kind of argument is that, Reck? I don't see you falling head over heels trying to get yourself lynched because we CAN'T LOSE THIS GAME UNLESS EK OR FARSIDE AR SCUM. My lynch is not going to happen "anyway", because, you know, we can always lynch the remaining scum first.

I hate getting lynched as town and I'm never gonna take it lying down, especially not when it's as undeserved as in this case.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm not liking the appeal to emotion, CTD.

I'm appealing to common sense.

So you want SC lynched, correct CTD?

Correct.

[CrashTextDummie]

SC has worked hard to find two people he believes are town and get them imprinted every night. If he's scum, he has to know that is just going to make him lose, and I don't see why he would do it.

That's actually a pretty persuasive argument. I hadn't considered that angle. I was working under the assumption that he buttered you up, but it's true that he was pretty instrumental in getting us into our current Elvis/farside-town-team position.

CTD, explain to me why the scumteam would have scumSC hammer DN, and then VMD and Messiah try to lynch him immediately.

That's a less persuasive argument. Messiah wasn't part of the scum-team. And I don't see where Pug tried to immediately lynch him.

[CrashTextDummie]

I almost wish you'd lynch the wrong two out of SC/Pul/Reck first, because they all deserve to be lynched.

Good grief.

[CrashTextDummie]

A very well modded game. Thanks, Iamusername!

[CrashTextDummie]

Could we get some mod-notes on the set-up, please? How were imprints assigned and are you happy with how the mechanic worked out?

Also, I'd be interested in the scum QT, if they don't mind.