Mini 199 - Time Travel Mafia, Game Over!

[Fishbulb]

Unvote: n_lich

Now everyone but fishbulb has posted, but he's got two votes on him, and its the weekend, so I'm not willing to put another vote on him yet.

why?

Because that would be stupid to bandwagon someone just because they haven't been on the forum for a couple days. It just opened yesterday morning, man.

[Fishbulb]

BTW, what is your take on Stoofer's vote (since that seems to be the main topic of conversation so far)

I'm thinking it would be best to wait for him to explain himself further than to speculate on possible reasonings. Discussing it might just serve to supply him with a fake, but town-like sounding, excuse.

[Fishbulb]

Brilliant reasoning.

Why thank you.

...Or was that sarcasm?

[Fishbulb]

Didn't we decide that he didn't have to explain himself? Or did I miss something?

"

We

?" Not I.

As we've established previously, I just got here.

[Fishbulb]

Oh, okay. For some reason I tend to read everything on forums with a tinge of sarcasm.

Maybe it's because I'm always sarcastic...

I think Mr Stoofer's vote was pretty harmless; perhaps he forgot a random in front of the vote or didn't think it was necessary. I don't think he REALLY thought that Someone (was it someone? I don't remember exactly who) was suspicious before he even posted.

The former, I believe.

Thanks for the demonstration.

If the person is still alive, they can explain themselves. It's usually best to get a genuine reaction than to give the suspicious player a list of excuses to pick from. Unless you are masons or a cop who investigated him, you have no idea if he is scum or not, so why defend him?

[Fishbulb]

I think Mr Stoofer's vote was pretty harmless; perhaps he forgot a random in front of the vote or didn't think it was necessary. I don't think he REALLY thought that Someone (was it someone? I don't remember exactly who) was suspicious before he even posted.

The former, I believe.

Thanks for the demonstration.

Heh heh heh...

I thought Mr Stoofer was replying to the part I quoted from Quagmire, not the part about the 6/3 voting idea. Teach me to not read exactly what the player put in the quote section!

[Fishbulb]

Yeah, it was discussed in the previous Time Travel Mafia, as well.

[Fishbulb]

As for who's scum, I've got no clue. I think gapsode, mole, bob and speedy are decently innocent (watch them all turn out to be scum ). If I was to take a wild guess as to scum, I'd say Sinister Overlord, or maybe fishbulb...but those are just wild guesses.

Anyone else have any ideas?

Wow, you already have four people on an innocent list? I only have one so far, and that one's me!

I do have someone at the top of the suspect list, but as it is just a gut feeling, I'd rather not reveal at this time. I'd prefer to hear more from them without them realizing they are being watched.

[Fishbulb]

*note the word decently

(...just gut feelings)

I noted it form the start. Guess decently doesn't mean the same to me as it does to you.

Oh, and after a read-through, I have upgraded from one to

two

scummy gut feelings. Actually, the one isn't so much of a gut feeling anymore...

[Fishbulb]

Because I'm not the only person in this game. No other game has stalled just because I didn't reveal everything that I was thinking.

To make any sort of accusations would just lead to a bandwagon, which will have to go all the way to a lynch. To bandwagon for a claim, especially in this game, would be useless. So, I don't want to tip my hand unless I think they are today's best choice for a lynch.

What is it? Are you wanting me to post who it is so your scum buddy won't be caught off guard?

[Fishbulb]

The game is best played by presenting suspcions and discussing them. We'd get nowhere if we all sat around saying "I know something you don't know". I think you're too much worred about the scum tells going away once the person gets called out. There is value in seeing how people react under pressure, too.

Yeah, except that's not what I'm saying. I don't "know something you don't know", even though you added quotation marks to it. All I have is a gut feeling, and slight hint. I've seen too many people go down when they have such things and act on them but turn out wrong. I've been thinking about it this whole time trying to decide which way to go on this, not just sitting back and teasing the rest of you, as you make it sound.

Where I screwed up here is saying anything about it in the first place.

[Fishbulb]

*shrug*

Okay, I give.

Here's what I got:

Quagmire has posted three times. All fluff and trying to blend in. He brings nothing new to the table...

except

:

My guess on Emptyger's death is that Emp is the SK, and the mafia killed him, but yet EmpTyger went forward in time to kill someone.

Now, when I first read it I guess I just skimmed it. Going back it struck me as extremely odd. Is there any reason to think that any of that is true? I mean, any at all. We have one death, no description, and yet he comes to that conclusion.

What this seems to indicate is that Quagmire knows something more about last night's killing than he should. The idea that EmpTyger is a serial killer and zoomed forward in time would be one of the last things I would decide. Either he is deliberately trying to mislead the town, or it was an accidental scum slip.

[Fishbulb]

D'oh!

I see that now. That does make sense, I guess.

[Fishbulb]

Well, the other person I was getting bad vibes was from Mr Stoofer. Mostly because of this post:

I think we should concentrate for now on catching scum, rather than excessively elaborate plans such as that in the above post.

Usually it is scum who wants to stifle strategic discussion. It's not like it hurts to discuss as long we don't focus solely on that. Not really enough to go on, though.

Not sure about the whole Nox vs. Mr Stoofer business.

[Fishbulb]

What, you think that if we come up with a clever plan mathcam's going to go "Congratulations!" and tell us everyone's alignment?

I don't think anyone thought anything like that. What was the point of this statement? It certainly doesn't help your argument.

Yeah, we can come up with this, that and the other plan, but that plan's useless if we don't revive any non-townies.

I don't think anyone was suggesting we don't. And what's so bad about discussing

both

of these plans.

It's not going to help us tell who's scum and who isn't, it's not going to save the lives of the town players and it's not going to make bleeding cups of coffee. All it does is keep us talking about it, tying up the time left until the deadline so we have less time for discussing who's scum.

It's not like we can't discuss multiple subjects at the same time. What's with the overdramatization?

[Fishbulb]

Right.

Like that was actually similar to what I did. Nice work, gumshoe.



Anyway, I think we need to evaluate the situation here. I'm starting to think Quagmire might be our best bet. He sill hasn't posted, yet. And going back to what I said previously about him, yeah he said that he was confused about the non-townie thing, but I'm not sure I buy it. No none else was confused. Maybe it was intentional hoping to confuse others? Might be a bit of a stretch, but I think it might be our best bet for today. Maybe if he'd actually post something...

Vote: Quagmire

[Fishbulb]

Unvote: Quagmire

Alrighty.

[Fishbulb]

I have mixed feelings about talking strategy. Generally it is a good thing, and we really shouldn't be discouraging it. On the other hand, when I'm mafia, talking about strategy all the time is my favorite way of active lurking - staying involved in the conversation without drawing heat. I suppose we should talk strategy all we want, but stay aware of that tactic.

No, I say go for it. I don't like restricting anything anyone wants to discuss. It can all be used later.

If a player just talks about strategies that never seem to help the town, they are probably scum. If someone makes useless comments all the time, probably scum.

I think this game is best played where everyone is free to say whatever they want, not just what a couple loud players dictate is worthy discussion. It's not like if a player makes a worthless comment that everyone else has to drop what they are thinking and focus solely on that. Let them do it, no reason to help scum by saying what they should or shouldn't post.

[Fishbulb]

However, I think saying that Mr Stoofer is lurking is a little odd. A quick analysis shows he has a post count roughly in the middle of the current range, having 13 posts, with a maximum of 20 (Someone) and a minimum of 6 (Quagmire). Although these numbers are both over the whole thread, and possibly wrong (I don't trust my memory and I'm too lazy to note a quick search down), Mr Stoofer isn't really lurking that much. And in terms of recent posts, posting always tends to go down over the weekends.

Anyone else think it is a little odd that this is the fourth time Changling bob has come to Mr Stoofer's defense? As I said earlier, I find it much more beneficial to let the accused wiggle their own way out. Maybe it's a simple as Changling bob stated, but let him defend it. And four times? He hasn't defended anyone else even once that I noticed.

Actually, looking back through both of their posts, it seems quite suspicious. Go do it right now (at the bottom, change it to show All Posts from Changling bob, and then Mr Stoofer). They do have a little "clash" about whether or not to read the previous game, but it's starting to look pretty staged to me.

[Fishbulb]

Tell you what, you say something that I don't find scummy, then have people say "that's scummy", and I'll come to your defense.

So, what you are saying is that the only person that has done that has been Mr Stoofer? And, it has happened four times? Nope, don't buy it.

At this point, Changling bob is definitely the highest on my scum list. Even if Mr Stoofer isn't scum with him, it's still just as likely. Scum try to defend an innocent if it looks like a lynch so they can come back and say "See? I told you so." Anyway, it doesn't look like there is enough interest in this theory, so I guess I'll have to let this go for now. I just hope everyone did read these posts so it is in the back of everyone's minds if I end up dead any time soon. (Obviously, I don't mean auto-lynch him if I'm dead, just something to consider for the future.)

Of course, Mr Stoofer just ignored the whole thing entirely, so I will be surprised if he doesn't turn out to be scum. Since it seems we've narrowed it down to Mr Stoofer, Someone, and SinisterOverlord, I guess I'd have to go with:

Vote: Mr Stoofer

[Fishbulb]

Wow, what are the odds? The guy acting scummy ends up having a role that not only can't be proven (doc), but one that can't even do anything (back-up). And we'll never know if he is ever doing anything since we won't know when/if the real doc dies. Just seems too perfect.

However, since there was a back-up doc in the previous game (right? I should re-read that again), it is

possible

. Of course, that would also make it easy for him to pick that claim as it would be the easiest to fake.

[Fishbulb]

I'm not sure what to make on Quagmire's death, either.

As for suspicions, well, I stand by my comments on Changling bob. Unfortunately, we don't know if we were right on Mr Stoofer or not, but either way I still think it is odd for someone to come to another player's defense four times, yet not help anyone else. There's definitely a connection between the two players, or at least from Changling bob's side (Mr Stoofer seemed to ignore the whole thing).

[Fishbulb]

Sorry, folks. Not a good week for me.

What I will ask, is directed at fishbulb: Do you think that changeling bob's defense of a player 4 times was warranted? Or do you think it was mostly crap logic?

Good question. I think I could see his reasoning for defending him somewhat, otherwise it would've been more obvious at the time. My issue is that he hasn't stuck up for anyone else, so that means that either they have an in-game connection (either scum or mason), or some out-of-game connection (played a lot of games together, rl friends, online friends, etc.).

For some reason, Mr Stoofer was the only person he didn't consider scummy, yet he gave no reason why.

[Fishbulb]

I'm convinced of Someone's honesty at this point. What he claimed is highly plausible...

Well, it better be plausible since he came out with the information. But it's just as likely that he is lying and came up with a "plausible" claim as it is that he was given the role. (I don't agree that it it plausible, however, as it doesn't make much sense to me in the context of this game.)

he's not an important pro-town power role, which could explain why he volunteered himself to be the 3 out of the lynching bandwagon: He thought that he was'nt

that

important.

Again, I disagree. This is a very powerful role as we have just seen. It has the potential of being a mega-cop.

I was sure of the Changling bob and Mr Stoofer connection, and it definitely still bugs me, but this new development takes center stage for me. It seems to me that we have Someone coming up with just the right information to have the next two lynches pre-programmed for us. He's completely solved the game. Isn't that just a little too perfect? And Nox's lack of questioning is what makes it most troubling. I don't care how scummy Changling bob is, I'm not going to take information like this without questioning the source.

This is just the perfect scum claim. Great amount of information to narrow the lynches down to two candidates. He tells us that if he's wrong about the first one, then he's definitely right about the second. He has no possible way of proving this ability until the game is completely over. And there's nothing left for him to do but sit back and point at the two of us.

So now the question is whether Nox is in on this or not...

[Fishbulb]

I hate these situations. I felt Changling bob was the scummiest from the start, but that's what Someone would be going for in this kind of scheme: the player most of us would agree to lynch. It seems so easy, but that's the problem, it rarely is this easy.

I keep going back to how Someone played this. Why reveal all so suddenly? Why not see where the town is going before trying to push us in a direction? I was all ready to vote for Changling bob anyway.

[Fishbulb]

Yeah, and I can see what you are saying, Someone. Gah, this is so frustrating. This is pretty much it. Either we trust Someone and possibly lose by handing the game over to him, or we hang him and possibly our only chance at winning. I always make the wrong choice in these situations.

[Fishbulb]

In my opinion, only the scum would oppose to a mass claim. Itd pretty much give us an idea of how many of them they are. On another note, if we don't do this, the game would probably end up deadlined, for there'd be a lack of any action probable.

Please explain how a mass claim could give us any idea of how many scum are left. I'm trying to figure this out, maybe I'm missing something obvious, but won't they just lie? I'm in the line of thinking that all it would do is reveal any powerful town roles that are left. I think we have doc left, for instance, why give that information to scum?

And we don't need the mass claim to come to a decision today. In fact, the mass claim won't really give us any insight on the whole Someone versus Changling bob debate. I think many of us are hesitating as this is an important decision to make, not because we don't have anything to go on.

[Fishbulb]

My main hesitation for lynching Someone, as I don't believe his claim, is that it won't give us any information. If he's scum, he'll show up non-townie. If he is actually telling the truth, he will still be non-townie. Either way, we won't really know if we're on the right track.

[Fishbulb]

Well, right now the only person I trust is Gaspode. He has nothing to gain from going against Someone. If he's scum, he'd just go along with Someone, not question his motives. I think that is a good indicator of his alignment.

As for the rest of you, I really don't know which way to go. I think it looks mostly like Nox and Someone are the scum, but lynching Someone won't give us quite as much information as lynching Nox, as she'd come up non-townie instead of her claimed townie. Or maybe it is just Someone.

Gah! I'm still thinking here...

[Fishbulb]

If you lynch me today, and the game doesn't end, what do we do?

Okay, what if we lynch Changling bob and the game doesn't end? You say that it must be me, but I know that's not true. But to trust you now means trusting you all the way, which I'm not sure I'm ready to do yet.

Maybe we will lynch Changling bob and we win, yay... but what if we don't?

[Fishbulb]

Vote: Changling bob

I haven't really made up my mind, but since it is tied currently between Someone and Changling bob, I need to at least break the tie. Hopefully I will be able to examing this better tomorrow. Or even better, maybe this will be a simple town win.

[Fishbulb]

Wait a second. If I was scum, why on earth would I kill Someone? That just doesn't make any sense.

Something to think about here, even if Someone was pro-town and his question was real, there could be a Godfather clause here that made either Gaspode or Nox appear pro-town. With Nox's rush to vote, I would be inclined to think that way.

Also, this does not clear Someone. His death could've been from earlier in the game, likely from a serial killer. Taking that into account, I'm still not even close to being sold on Someone's pro-town-ness. I don't believe his claim in the slightest.

What does all of this mean? I'm pretty definite that Gaspode is as close to being a confirmed innocent as possible in this game. That leaves Nox. Could've been the Godfather that Someone got a bad reading on, or just part of the Mafia with Someone, who just happened to get a lingering kill from earlier in the game. Probably one of those would be more likely if I thought this through enough, but the way I see it, all signs point to Nox.

[Fishbulb]

Alright. I'm a Townie, and my shield choice was for Night 2.

Vote: Nox

It might be 50-50 to you, Gaspode, but I'm almost positive of your innocence, so I don't see the harm in going ahead and voting. Basically, it's going to come down to what you decide.

Someone was not a cop. His results were right, hence why I believe Gaspode is pro-town.

But we don't know if his results for right. In fact, we haven't received any new information to tell us if he was telling the truth or not since yesterday when the rest of us questioned him. You are so sure he was telling the truth, but even if you are innocent, then you have to understand that he knew you were innocent if he was scum, and that's how he knew to pick you. Because of your eagerness to trust him, and Gaspode's reluctance, I am almost positive that you have to be scum.

Look at it this way, theoretically speaking, what if I came out and said that I'm a cop and that I found you innocent? Either you are scum and you would agree since disagreeing would get you lynched. Or, you are innocent... but that doesn't tell you anything about my alignment.

But this is all moot. It's up to Gaspode at this point.

[Fishbulb]

If Someone had been scum, he wouldnt have died last night.

That is most definitely not true. Obviously we have more than one killing party. You cannot rule Someone out as being scum just because he died, especially with the whole time traveling thing.

[Fishbulb]

Hmm... I guess I'm not making myself clear enough.

With the ability to send kills forward in time, added with that the possibility of docs protecting forward in time, and finally, the most important fact that we definitely have more than one killing group, you can't be sure of anything. Theoretically, there could be two killers left here. How are you so sure of what's happening?

I don't believe Someone's role claim; it doesn't make any sense to me in regards to this game. Him dying only proves that he wasn't the only killing party in the game, not that he is, or is not, scum.

But ignoring Someone's alignment and the possibility of a time traveling kill, just look at it this way: If Gaspode was the remaining scum, then he would've killed Nox knowing I would probably not hesitate to vote for Someone. If I were the remaining scum I would've killed Nox as well since he was as suspicious of Someone as myself. If Nox was the remaining scum, she would've killed Gaspode as Someone would've easily joined in to hang me. So who would've killed Someone?

[Fishbulb]

Well, Nox and I can argue all day long, but I don't see me changing my vote to Gaspode.

Of course if we end in a lock like this then scum wins anyway, so maybe we should discuss that possibility. *shrug*

[Fishbulb]

You're only basis on being suspicious of me is the fact that I was lurking on the

entire

site for a while there? Please try a little harder than that.

Well, you're making the decision here, so why don't you ask us questions?

[Fishbulb]

Uh... Did you forget that we go by deadline not lynch number?

Wow. Nice going. Hurry up Fritzler!

[Fishbulb]

First of all...

The game is over no matter what at this point. You want to see what I am? Don't you realize that the game is over after this lynch. We're about to see who everyone is. I'd much rather be really thinking about this final lynch than just speeding through it.

And second, none of that matters anyway! Look at what Nox just said. Come on man.

[Fishbulb]

I would imagine so!

Come on, man, it's not too late. Change your vote and we can win this thing.

[Fishbulb]

That's the whole point of this game! It most certainly is possible. The fact that you are so blinded to the possibilities here further proves that you are scum.

[Fishbulb]

And since when is being naive scummy?

Scum have more information that townies. They are less likely to see alternate possibilities as they generally have the biggest idea as to what is going on. If she was just an ordinary townie as she claims, then there would be way to many factors left unknown to make a claim like that.

Here's a possibility, that there are actually two killers left and this endgame isn't about town versus scum but which scum will win. Not something I initially thought about, but the possibility is there.

As for where the mafia kill is, there are many possibilities there that I am aware of, and probably more that I am not. For instance, time traveling docs, personal shields, mafia restrictions, or even simply that the mafia chose not to kill because sometimes that is the better option.

[Fishbulb]

And before you say that docs and shields don't matter this late in the game, let me expound on that idea. Scum can travel

back

in time to kill as seen earlier in this game. That could have easily happened, especially if they had time fuel to spare and thought that maybe one of us could doc block. Don't be hasty here, Fritzler, actually think about the situation.

[Fishbulb]

You can't make statements like that with no reasoning. Obviously you don't really care what my response would be, but if you are going to try to discuss this why contradict without adding anything to explain your contradiction? Plainly said, a naive townie might as well be working for scum.

Game's over anyway whenever mathcam shows up. Oh well. It's a shame that Fritzler is more interested in fruitless arguing rather than trying to analyze and find scum.

[Fishbulb]

I still can't figure out why I killed Someone. It makes no sense, and I can't remember what crazy reasoning I had at the time that I submitted that.

And then I made it worse when I claimed townie. I immediately realized I shoulda said I was a vigilante and I did indeed kill Someone.

I wanted to do more time traveling stuff, but I never saw an opportunity to use it for more than confusing people.

[Fishbulb]

Before I enter into a lifelong vendetta, I want to make sure- Fishbulb, it was you who killed me Night 1?
I’m not sure whether I should be insulted or flattered.

Well, yeah, it had to be me. Don't take it personal, though. Someone had to die (and I mean that as both someone and Someone).

Seriously, man, it was random. I'm horribly indicisive, and being my first SK that I could actually kill with (Macros... grr...), I couldn't make up my mind.

Incidentally, finishing off the mafia so early was probably bad for me. Kinda made the last couple days all about me when I'd rather still be finding the scum. Hard to find them when there aren't any!