Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Herodotus]

Oh sweet Zorblag is joining. This game's awesomeness meter just went up a factor of 10.

Agreed.

I don't have my role PM yet, but I will say that I found Archon to be strongly townish when I first read the game this morning.

[Herodotus]

/Confirmed.

[Herodotus]

Troll, I'm finding the guessing of the chosen one to be a bit of a distraction. If the town *were* to correctly guess who was the chosen, that would be an auto-win, but I just don't think that's possible. At best -- even if we were to successfully navigate through the WIFOM, which is unlikely -- we'd have four candidates. Talk me through how this is better than scumhunting. I could be convinced, but so far, I'm not. I'll read 780 when I can.

[Herodotus]

Well what's even better than mislynching non-Chosens is lynching nobody.

strictly speaking, it's not better than lynching definite non-chosens, but it is better than lynching anyone who might be the chosen.

vote: NoLynch

[Herodotus]

I think I would theoretically want to exclude:

afatchic
MiteyMouse
Nuwen
TDC

based entirely on my prior impression (without having done any research) of those players' relative levels of experience or skill. If I anticipated that people would guess they would be excluded, I might do basically the opposite.

[Herodotus]

I want to hear from Raivann regarding Nuwen's opinions. Do you agree or disagree with them?

---

I do think that the no lynch vote by Herodotus is a bit scummy as even though the lynching dynamic is not the same as in a typical game I think we can do better, but I also think that Archon was particularly likely not to be excluded from being the chosen so I'll have no interest in voting for Herodotus on day one.

I don't see how it's scummy, but okay.

Herodotus, do you have any experience with Papa Zito? Same question in reverse to Papa Zito.

No.

based entirely on my prior impression (without having done any research) of those players' relative levels of experience or skill.

You mean from this thread? I don't remember playing with you.

No, from either GD, your join date, your # of posts, or reading other games you've been in. I haven't played with any of the four I named.

[Herodotus]

By the way, almost every post Ash has made has been scummy.

fos: Ash1984

[Herodotus]

Herodotus, would you find voting no lynch on day one of games without some special dynamic scummy in general? If you need a more specific one how about a mountainous nine player game with two scum?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

In that case, nolynch would be bad for the town (although I'm not sure the scum would be bold enough to try it in general.)

[Herodotus]

As I see it, the town has a good incentive to never lynch.

[Herodotus]

I should provide a little background. The first time that I heard of this setup being run, around February of this year, I looked over the rules and thought to myself "as long as the Chosen is never lynched, the town wins... NoLynch every day would appear to be the ideal strategy. Eventually the scum will NK every townie but the chosen, then the town wins." I PM'ed the mod to tell them the setup was broken. They responded by telling me that lynches were mandatory, i.e. the game would stay in day until a lynch happened. When I replaced into this game, I assumed the same rule would apply here. It wasn't until 131 by TDC that I checked the rules and realized it didn't.

My feelings about NoLynch are mixed -- it appears to be the ideal strategy, but it's obviously not fun. I'm not sure what to make of labeling it a draw.

[Herodotus]

I just went back and checked. My question about that other game was different -- it was a question of the Chosen knowing who they were. (Which would break the setup because the town could just lynch all the vanillas.)

Troll is right. If we were to simply NoLynch repeatedly, we'd eventually get to 2 vs. 2. Even if the mafia claimed at that point, it would be a coin flip.

unvote

vote: Ash

[Herodotus]

BloodCovenent, how do ClockworkRuse and MiteyMouse differ from nadroj15 there?

[Herodotus]

@Troll:
No, you were right the first time. The mafia need to lynch the Chosen.

So what happens if it comes down to two scum and 1 townie after that day lynch?

Chosen + (1 or 2) Mafia = Town win
1 or 2 VT's + 2 Mafia = Mafia win
1 VT + 1 Mafia = Mafia win
0 Mafia = Town win

@Mod:
My apologies. I hope you understand that I did not intend to attempt to break the setup when I joined the game.

[Herodotus]

No, not really, I said that wrong.

The mafia have to lynch the townie who isn't the chosen.

If they don't then we win.

Not that this slight misstatement really matters. I'm pretty sure the endings in post 164 are a complete list of all possible endings.

So, now that it's settled that we will be playing properly, and Raivann has answered my question, this is my current theory of the game:

(Not an official VC)

2

Herodotus

:

TDC

,

Raivann

1

AshMC1984

:

Herodotus

1 BloodCovenent: afatchic
0 afatchic:
1 MiteyMouse: BloodCovenent
0 Zorblag:
1 Raivann:

Papa Zito

2

Papa Zito

: MiteyMouse,

AshMC1984

0

TDC

:
1 Not Voting: Zorblag

(Not an official VC)

One scum on each of the two wagons that have multiple votes fits nicely, but that was something I didn't even notice until after I made this chart.

[Herodotus]

@BC: I'm pretty sure you're not supposed to get advice from anyone about your ongoing games, even if they're not playing in the same game as you. Not that I'm assuming that's what you meant; just wanted to put that out there so you've heard it.

Herodotus, why are Papa Zito and TDC apparently confirmed townie for you?

They're not confirmed, but I lack the artistic talent to choose a color that expresses my degree of belief.

In PZ's case, it's mostly because of page 2. I love page 2 tells. Page 4 helped, too. Also, he's been attacked by both Ash and Nuwen.

In TDC's case, I'm not as confident. But posts 131 and 156 look relatively good.

[Herodotus]

I think Ash inherently is more likely to be the chosen if he's town than Raivann/Nuwen if she's town. But Ash is also scummier.

[Herodotus]

unvote, vote Raivann

I didn't find 184 to be scummy, but I'm okay with lynching Raivann based on earlier suspicions.

[Herodotus]

This feels like reaching to me. IF Raivann is scum, he still wasn't here when they came up with the strategy. So how would he know what their strategy was?

It's standard practice to allow scum replacees to communicate with their partners, isn't it?

Not quite. Normally, there is a quicktopic (basically a private thread,) and they can read whatever the original players wrote.

Example:
In this (abandoned) game http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11252
the QT was here http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/YRngLQvvHXPmZ (it's in reverse chronological order)
When kieraen replaced Gateway, he was given a link to the QT, so he could read what Gateway, Rishi, and I had discussed in pre-game, but none of us could post there during the day.

Things could be different here, but rule 11 suggests there is a scum QT. I assume that a scum being replaced does not grant them a daytalking ability. (I also assume that the scum were not originally allowed to daytalk.)

Two things I want to mention:

1. Sorry for the length/uselessness of the nolynch discussion. I hope it doesn't lead to anyone getting behind.

2. I'd be okay lynching Raivann or Ash. Troll (aka. Zorblag) gave a decent reason for choosing Raivann over Ash, but I could be swayed back to Ash.

[Herodotus]

As for the whole quicktopic and whether

we

've got one

?!?
Minor FoS: Zorblag

Anyway,

unvote; vote: Raivann

. Pressure produces results.

Pressure? I want this to be a lynch wagon. Do you, or do you not?

[Herodotus]

That doesn't answer the question.

Also, I've decided that "quick" days aren't as bad as people tend to assume they are.

[Herodotus]

Can someone please present to me the case against Raivann, since i am really not seeing it.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 94#1756994
The response to PZ is a possible chainsaw defense. Zito's accusation was pretty minor, and clearly directed at Ash. Nuwen jumped in to answer it for him and stop the line of discussion before Ash could make a slip.

Post 20 doesn't look very good either.

[Herodotus]

In this case, the defense looks scummy. Note that it:
a) sidesteps the point and accusation, making an appeal to authority (herself) to overrule an appeal to authority ("school of thought,")
b) is an overreaction,
c) suggests PZ may be scum because... he was reading the wiki?
d) was likely in defense of someone who is scum.

[Herodotus]

Nuwen jumped in to answer it for him and stop the line of discussion before Ash could make a slip.

You do realize that this line of thought only makes sense if Ash is scum?

Yes; in fact, it only makes sense if both Ash and Nuwen are scum.

[Herodotus]

Upon a cursory meta search, I noticed that you cast random votes in Mini 801 and Mini 785 as town. What induced the sudden change of policy?

I'm surprised no one corrected Nuwen on this. Archon was scum in the first of those games (which also had Ash and BC in it,) and a jester in the other. This meta argument was based on false data.

[Herodotus]

@Raivann:
Do the first two sentences of that post (223) support the third sentence in any way?

@BC:
Does "Kor" stand for Herodotus?

I did indeed mention it. right here.

I noticed that before, then forgot.

@MM:
Pointing out the part about Troll's question for me and PZ was good. Is there anyone else from that game in this game, or just Zorblag and yourself? Could someone link to it?

@Troll:
Why did you ask that question?

[Herodotus]

It seems to me that the only person who would have been likely to understand a message out of Zorblag's question is probably MiteyMouse. If Troll is scum, he could not have talked with his partner in the pregame because he joined as a replacement, so his partner wouldn't have any reason (that I can see) to infer any particular message from it.
MM's reaction was to point it out and says she is suspicious of Troll because of it. But I don't see any reason based on MM's earlier posts why Troll would have wanted her to bus him.

@BC:
Oh. In context I thought it referred to me because PZ and I have stated a town read on each other.

[Herodotus]

@Special Ed:
What would your list of four players to exclude from being the Chosen be (assuming the list here is what the scum were looking at?)

[Herodotus]

Knowing my alignment, I, of course, view with suspicion the case built against me.

To be honest, I read the game before getting my role, I was expecting to find myself being a Scum. I fully expected Ash to have seen the pressure mounting and deciding to opt out instead of staying and fighting.

If you had replaced another player, and that player was town, the second quote seems to imply that you would have expected that Ash was scum. Why do you view the case on you/Ash with suspicion if you apparently would have agreed with it as a townie without access to Ash's role PM? Do you have more information that would suggest that the case on you would more likely be pursued by the scum rather than a townie with the same impression of Ash's play? Specifically, are you the Chosen?

[Herodotus]

What I would like, at this point, if it's not too much trouble, is a couple of sentences from everyone. First describing your experience with Mafia on this site and i total, as well as some general impressions on how Day 1 usually goes here.

I've played one real-world game. On this site I have played about 9 "marathon" (quick) games, two completed full games, and a couple games that are in progress.

Day 1 usually starts with random voting, then a disagreement about theory. The rest of the day is spent making generally minor cases. Everyone wants to test everyone else -- townies want to test others' alignments, and scum want to test who the easier mislynches are. It can be hard to form a lynch wagon because there isn't a lot of information, which makes agreement difficult. As a result, the scum seem to often find it easy to avoid being lynched. The day 1 lynch is often less likely than random to hit scum, due to influence from the scum, but because motivations for votes can be analyzed, it helps on future days.

I have seen a tendency for day 1's in particular to extend all the way to the deadline -- from what I've understood, this is a recent trend.

[Herodotus]

Saying things like a random lynch "won't hit scum but might hit the Chosen one" is a scare tactic. And it's also factually incorrect: a random lynch is twice as likely to hit scum as it is to hit the Chosen.

@Mod: Could you clarify this? Are the scum potential targets for the random lynch?

Either way, I think it should be avoided, but knowing is better than not knowing.

[Herodotus]

concerned?

sniping?

I expect that if the mod confirms that the scum are immune, it will light a fire under anyone who is town-sided.

[Herodotus]

(which is not to say that anyone should hammer immediately.)

[Herodotus]

Do you not think it was possible that Zorb was passing a message about Papa to Herod?

Can anyone give me isight into why sometimes the quote button works and sometimes it doesn't?

I too was wondering why MM wasn't examining that scenario.

Maybe your login session is expired? I've seen the same thing happen on rare occasions. There is a thread here about it. I'm not sure whether it will give you a solution, but you could post there if it doesn't.

[Herodotus]

Welcome, dry-fit. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

@ afat and MM -- please post your thoughts about a scumteam including Raivann and the person you were voting (BC and PZ, respectively.)

@afat 338 -- Shocked why? Because he was town, or because he was killed?

[Herodotus]

I'm not certain that Mitey would be so bold as to off the person voting for her.

But, then again, it's a healthy dose of WiFoM.

BloodCovenant was replaced, not nightkilled. I suppose the fact that you didn't know that means you must be town.

[Herodotus]

First, I don't like it when people use the "I am town so you are wrong" argument. Second, notice how Special Ed mentions the pairing of him and Raivann, now confirmed scum! What's worse, he pretty much brought up the idea himself.

I don't recall particularly pushing for a Nuwen/AshMC1984 scum pair before you'd made your first post

You may be thinking there's no way scum would bring up the possibility of their actual scumpair, but I disagree. Special Ed seems to think the pairing is inevitable, and he almost seems as if he is already preparing for a defense, as if he already knows Raivann is scum.

I'm pretty sure I had brought it up before that (just checked: pg 7.) I think Ed just had Zorblag and myself somewhat lumped together.

[Herodotus]

@MM -- I don't think the town would have gotten much out of an additional ~4 days when the lynch choice was almost certain to be Raivann regardless.

Right now I want to hear what afatchic and MiteyMouse are thinking about the game and who their suspects are. I'd like to hear who Herodotus is suspicious of as well but I'm less concerned about his level of participation.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

I'll go ahead and admit that my low participation is a result of the fact that I'm more interested in hearing what others have to say than in trying to convince anyone of anything at the moment. I could be asking questions to that end, but I haven't decided what to ask.

Just don't quicklynch, please. I'll start getting more involved in a few days.

[Herodotus]

Herodotus is totally the Chosen. No lynching the Hero plz.

I'm not as confident of that, but I'm definitely town, and it is possible I'm the chosen, so yeah, I think I'd only consider self-voting if we were at 3-player.

I like that vote analysis Papa. Thank you for posting that! Ed is my top suspect at this point and I feel badly for some of the reasons (mostly my gut) but, that is very interesting.

I wouldn't call that "analysis," but okay. In fact, some analysis might be helpful.
That second sentence doesn't look so great. I'd like to hear more than "gut." Hope you've covered that already.

Something that might be a bit giggle worthy if Hero is the Chosen...in the opening post of this game, Hohum referred to the Chosen as a "hero"...hehehe!

I would also find that humorous. Though it's not as funny to me as it is to others, because I haven't internalized the nickname(s), just my full username.

@Zorblag - congrats!

Also, Herodotus, please weigh in on the relative merits of a MiteyMouse lynch vs. a Special Ed lynch if you will. I think you have been watching and would like to get your input. If they're both bad ideas what would be a better idea?

I'm planning on it. I don't have time ATM. In fact, I've only read up to this post... 377 looks like it will deserve some comment when I have more time. This should be within 14 hours.

[Herodotus]

I wouldn't call that "analysis," but okay. In fact, some analysis might be helpful.

No offense intended. Maybe it's just a question of word usage. For me, "analysis" would entail a lot of exposition. What you did there was collect a lot of data and present your opinion. I'd call it analysis if you wrote about the reason for each vote or something in detail like that.

---

I'd be okay lynching Raivann or Ash. Troll (aka. Zorblag) gave a decent reason for choosing Raivann over Ash, but I could be swayed back to Ash.

This was written for 2 reasons:
First, it was true. I would have been okay with an Ash lynch on day 1.
More importantly, I wanted to see if anyone preferred Ash over Raivann for the lynch. At the time, I didn't know whether Raivann was scum or a VT (though it was pretty safe to assume he wasn't the chosen.) But either way, I was offering to push on Ash instead of Raivann, and PZ was already voting for him. If Ash was the chosen, I expected the scum would probably take me up on this offer to switch, even if Raivann was town. But instead, the scum were okay with one of their own (Raivann) being lynched instead of Ash. Even Raivann-scum didn't seem too interested in turing my attention toward Ash.
So I doubt that Ash/Ed is the chosen. If he is, both of the scum are sly and don't mind gambits -- sacrificing one of their own to convince us (or at least me) that Ash/Ed isn't likely to be the chosen.
The easiest explanation for why the scum did not prefer an Ash/Ed lynch over a Raivann-scum lynch is that a lynch on Ash/Ed would have been equally bad for them, i.e. they were both scum.

Of all of the votes on the wagon, Ed's was the one I don't consider a town-tell. A Raivann lynch was inevitable. If Ed knew Raivann was scum, I can believe he figured it would be better to be on the wagon than to be off it.

I'm surprised that Zorblag did not point out at least the first of these two issues earlier on day 2. Maybe he just didn't want to put words into my posts. There's a chance that he's scum on a gambit, and wants to avoid responsibility for an Ash/Ed lynch, but it seems more likely that he is town. Also, it's possible he wanted to hold on to Ed as a trump non-chosen lynch. That last part was one reason why I was inactive earlier on this day -- to see who, if anyone, pushed an Ed lynch.

I support a lynch of Ed. I'm pretty confident he's not the chosen, and if he's scum, that would explain both Ash's scumtells, and why neither of the scum advocated for his lynch yesterday.

I have some things to say about other players, which will only be relevant if Ed is town:
MM - some scumtells and relatively low involvement on day 1. It's not enough to convince me that she's scum, but she'd be a reasonable future lynch if there is a day 3. Or the scum may kill her so that we have to make a different choice.

Dry-fit - his argument about Ed has some holes, but I still agree with it. As long as Ed is not the chosen, I don't find him suspicious. I didn't pay too much attention to BC yesterday, so I'll reread them if there is a night 2.

Zorblag - is capable of the level of subtlety needed to both bus his partner and avoid responsibility for the Ed lynch if Ed is the chosen. But if Ed was the chosen and Zorblag was scum, I don't think he'd have made such a big issue of lynching players who were most likely to be excluded.

tl;dr:

Let's lynch Ed. He's not likely the chosen. He could easily be scum. In the unlikely event that he is the chosen, I will become paranoid.

Is there anything else to say before the hammer?

[Herodotus]

Is there anything else to say before the hammer?

Good stuff.

I'd prefer we give afatchic/replacement a chance to weigh in before the day closes.

No

! I'm going to hammer myself like Mtey says I do when I'm Scum....and...

OK, the idea for this post was funnier in my head than it is in preview.

I'm baffled about whether this post amounts to Ed claiming scum.

If you aren't scum, I don't think you should self-hammer. If you are, then there's no need to make us wait for afa to respond to his prod or, heh, be replaced immediately before the town wins.

[Herodotus]

For the record, having a reputation, even if it's a mild as mine is, is teh suck.

So I've heard. But I wasn't trying to place a burden of proficiency on you; in fact, I was wondering if it might be better to sit on the information I derived from that, in part so that the scum wouldn't be aware of a "safe lynch," and in part to see if anyone came out swinging at Ed.
If no one else had been discussing lynching Ed, I might have waited.

My minor suspicion of you was only based on the possibility that Ed was the chosen, which would mean the scum were willing to make a very subtle and patient play for his lynch.

[Herodotus]

I agree that hero has made a good case for him being the Chosen, I think it will lose some validity after my lynch, however.

I don't recall making such a case, although others have given reasons why they believe it.

[Herodotus]

Happy birthday, MM.

And Hoopla, as always.

[Herodotus]

@Don: welcome to the game. You don't necessarily need to make a giant post, however I at least would like to hear something. While day 2 has only been about a week long, the main reason I haven't already hammered was so that we could hear from more people - in particular the player you're replacing - in case Ed isn't the other scum.

[Herodotus]

Herodotus??

No estoy votando.

I am not voting.

Are you asking for a translation?

No, he just wanted to know why I wasn't named in the VC.

This thread needs moar Don.

QFT. Don, do you want to catch up and comment before day 2 ends? Or you can use night 2 to read the thread, if you prefer.

fixed, sorry

[Herodotus]

@Don:
If it's easier, we could just lynch you. As long as you're not the chosen, it's really not too big of a problem.

So, are you the chosen?

[Herodotus]

So, are you the chosen?

not sure yet if i should answer that.

You should. If you are, then we won't lynch you, and the scum can't NK you, so as long as we know that you are, the town is guaranteed to win.

[Herodotus]

Also, there is only 1 scum left, so even if you think I might be lying, I'll be lynched for having lied. Or if PZ or anyone else is still online, they can verify that you should answer.

[Herodotus]

okay then, i'm the chosen one.

Your role PM indicates that?

[Herodotus]

unvote, vote dry-fit

[Herodotus]

why are you voting dry-fit?

He wants to lynch the chosen.
Can you confirm the answer to 451?

@MM - Why aren't you voting dry-fit? Is it just because Don hasn't yet confirmed?

[Herodotus]

unvote

Why are you voting me? That seems like an odd response. And why are you changing your roleclaim?

[Herodotus]

and how do you know whose the chosen?

I know because you claimed. Or were you lying?

[Herodotus]

I had at least three reasons:
1. To see if you would fake-claim.
2. To see how your answer compared to other peoples' answers. Depending on your response, I could have gained or lost confidence in my read on another particular player.
3. I'll abbreviate this reason for now: OERDYYDOEE.

I'm pretty sure the mafia know exactly who the chosen one is (though I can't seem to find where the mod indicated this. There are the sample role PM's, but those would have been issued before the chosen one had been determined.)

What do you mean by baiting? Did you expect a counterclaim?

[Herodotus]

you have asked two other players if they are the chosen

I recall one of those... could you link to the posts you're referring to?

Dry-fit, if I had to guess, voted you because you made a claim which could only be a fake-claim. I voted dry-fit to give you a false sense of security so that you would confirm your fake-claim.

Are you saying in your third sentence that I should be trying to argue that I'm a VT? I don't know that I necessarily am.

[Herodotus]

you have asked two other players if they are the chosen

I recall one of those... could you link to the posts you're referring to?

me. the other is post 27 in iso. you ask ed.

I see. When you said 2 other players, I thought you meant you were the third. By the way, does Ed's response make you more or less inclined to suspect him?

Can we assume this means you've reached page 10?

The benefit to djscum is avoiding being lynched. Actually, that may not work; if you did not realize that the chosen doesn't know who they are, djscum would also expect a counterclaim. So, maybe it's not useful. I still don't understand why you'd make that claim, but I'm not interested in pursuing it at the moment.

Both you and Ed seem to think I'm trying to support the idea that I'm the chosen. I don't see it. I'm one of a handful of people not likely to have been excluded. From my perspective, I think there's about a 1 in 3 chance that I'm the chosen, maybe slightly higher. Anyone willing to assume I'm town should probably estimate about the same probability.

[Herodotus]

Herodotus, now that you've thought about it do you think that don_johnson is likely to be scum or town just based on his gambit. Do you have any reasons other than that to clear him or suspect him?

I hadn't really thought it through at first. If he really believed that the chosen knew who they were, he would have to expect a counterclaim. Therefore, I'm inclined to accept that it is more likely that he was a townie looking for reactions than fakeclaiming scum.

Sorry, I wasn't clear in post 470. I was referring to Ed's response when I asked him whether he was the chosen. I want to know how Don feels about that response. I do not consider post 468 to be any indication of Ed's alignment.

[Herodotus]

Let's find out why.

Everyone has had a chance to say whatever they wanted. I think the issue with the claim is more likely muddying the waters than helping, but we can revisit it if there is a tomorrow.

vote: Ed

[Herodotus]

OK, before I do anything else, Herodotus, what did OERDYYDOEE stand for?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

"to see whether you'd truly only read to page five"
Last letters of each word, instead of first.

[Herodotus]

I expect Papa was killed more because he was obvtown than because of his opinions. Same for TDC.
The scum's conceptions of our beliefs about who is likely to be the chosen probably also had some weight. Most people considered them both unlikely to be the chosen, iirc. I remember thinking the scum would probably pick off the people who were "safe [vanilla] lynches."

[Herodotus]

@ everyone else, I wonder if you wouldn't mind answering the question I asked of don_johnson. His answer is interesting to me and I'd like to see what others have to say so I've got something to compare it to.

How likely do you think Herodotus was to have been killed last night? How likely do you think I was to have been killed last night? I think the answers to those two questions should be different but I'd like to see what you come up with.

I think that if neither Zorblag nor I is the chosen, but we're both town, then the scum would want us to believe that one of us is the chosen. Either way, at least one of us would still be alive.

[Herodotus]

I'm planning to look into the votecounts for the first two days when I have a chance, but that won't be for about 20 hours.

@Dry-fit: How are you feeling about Don?

[Herodotus]

I've charted the day 1 votes, which may have given me a small bit of information about the possible chosen.

Troll: Considering that Nuwen also was in the other game, do you think that our lists have any value if she was scum?

BTW, This became relevant when Raivann flipped scum. I hadn't given it much thought on day 2.

[Herodotus]

Three questions for everyone:

How do you feel about making the assumption that at least one of the scum players has voted for the chosen?
How about the assumption that the remaining scum player (we know there is only one, right?) has voted for the chosen?
That the remaining scum player has stated suspicions against the chosen?

[Herodotus]

I don't like how Herodotus hammered so quickly. I checked in to post before my V/LA, but Ed had already been lynched. The deadlilne was nine days away.

Hammered quickly? It was in post 392 that I asked

Is there anything else to say before the hammer?

as Ed was at L-1 and I intended to vote for him; then it was in post 482 about five days later when I hammered.

What did you want to say before your V/LA?

[Herodotus]

As far as Zorblag's plan is concerned, there are a finite number of ways it breaks down. In chronological order:
1. Don is the chosen.
2. The scum don't NK Zorblag.
3. MM is the chosen, and either Dry or I is the scum.

If Zorblag is town, and he is willing to assume #1 and #3, then I, having marginally more evidence against #3, should be willing to go along with it as well. I don't feel any rush, though.
Don, as the first lynchee under this plan, how do you feel about it?

I haven't been posting a lot, but I've reread some people in isolation, and examined the voting on a spreadsheet. Some significant observations include:
MM has only voted for people who turned out to be VT's. She has also stated suspicions of Zorblag, but hasn't voted him. Unless he's the chosen, then I think she is not likely scum.
Raivann didn't say much. I didn't remember him being very active, but in fact he was lurking more than I realized, and spoke only about me and PZ.
Nuwen managed to say absolutely nothing about any of the players who are still alive.

[Herodotus]

EBWOP: Oops, actually, Nuwen did talk about/to Archon. I didn't consider that because I was only looking for a possible connection between her and a scumbuddy.

[Herodotus]

I was listing the three things that would make your plan not necessarily lead to a town win if we followed it. #1 and #3 are assumptions about roles, and #2 is a statement about what the scum will do (which also depends on roles.)

[Herodotus]

I want to go back and look at all the votes

I've never posted images before, so forgive me if this doesn't work, but I've charted the votes already, so here goes:



Red for Raivann-scum, green for townies. The other color were arbitrary. Read down the columns for the votes each player has placed, or across the rows for votecounts at any time.
As I said before, MM only voting for VT's stands out in this chart. It's also obvious that Dry-fit/Blood Covenant has voted for the largest variety of players and is the only one who has voted for either Zorblag or Don (until today.)

I will reexamine BloodC when I get a chance. I reread him in isolation earlier this week, but it was more to get a feel for whether he was scum than to consider his approach to MM.

[Herodotus]

Thanks. It took a while...

Now something really interesting worth noting in Papa's original vote analysis is that Raivann and Hero both had votes on each other. Now, it was something that I overlooked as, I thought that Hero was most definately the Chosen. Now that I'm questionning that that voting looks really interesting. Could this be really early cross bussing as a way to buy some Town cred? Or better yet, a way to make Hero look like the Chosen when Rav flipped Scum?

Now another thing of interest about Hero is that he did not place a vote on Day 2...until he dropped the hammer on Ed. He was also the only living person to be in on both lynches this game.

I could be wrong here but, I think that Hero might not be our Hero after all but, our Scum.

I'm not sure how to respond to this. It's a reasonable question to ask yourself; however, some circumstances work against it. I was the one of the first to accuse Raivann of being scum, and one of the first to vote for him. I also stated clearly that I wanted him to be lynched (as opposed to PZ's "pressure.") Also, the only thing that I as scum would have gained from that is the appearance of being town (and possibly the chosen.) In hindsight, nothing about it would have helped me to lynch the chosen.
Finally, does early and persistent bussing seem more likely to you than scum avoiding lynching one's buddy?

I think I've already explained why I lurked for the beginning of day 2. I wanted to see who would attack Ed, just in case he might be the chosen. After that, I indicated that I intended to hammer Ed, but did not vote because I was waiting for afatchick.

[Herodotus]

*chuckles* That chart looks familiar Herodotus. Nicely done. Any other conclusions you're drawing from it? I think I'm seeing a few interesting things.

I don't think I would bother doing it for larger games.

One issue is that even something with that much information isn't showing suspicions that were not accompanied by a vote. I started to list whom various people had stated suspicions of on my chart below the part in the image, but that was a poor substitute for reads in isolation.

I'm a little curious about your asking me about other conclusions while holding on to "some interesting things." I have noticed one other thing since you asked, but now I want to hear what you had in mind first.

[Herodotus]

@Zorblag:
It's not that I was overly worried about what you were doing, just that it didn't seem right.
What I was noticing was afatchic's parked vote on day 1, and his replacement's placing the same vote on day 3. I don't know what conclusion to draw from that, but when I wrote post 539 I was finding it a little scummy.

[Herodotus]

MiteyMouse, why are you not voting for Dry-fit?
Zorblag, same question.

[Herodotus]

I just did a reread of afa, then Don.
Don doesn't look particularly scummy to me, but I could see afa as Raivann's partner.

vote: Don_Johnson

@MM: in post 532, do you consider not voting until late in the day to be a scumtell?

[Herodotus]

Among ISO 5, 7, and 8, afa is dismissive of PZ's vote on Nuwen. ISO 8 is a

textbook

chainsaw defense if afa is scum.
ISO 9 and 10 -- he didn't include Nuwen on his list of people to exclude from being the chosen. This isn't solid evidence against him, however it does fit with Nuwen being a scumbuddy whom he doesn't want lynched.
(As a side note, Raivann said he would exclude afa, but then Raivann also said he'd exclude himself, and "Zorblag" (as opposed to nadroj,) so I think Raivann may simply have been confused.)
ISO 13 and 14 -- actually I agree that PZ was reaching, so it's not scummy for afa to say so.
After that, these:

Can someone please present to me the case against Raivann, since i am really not seeing it.

So then Raivann is scum for defending Ash?

are the only other things he said about Raivann and his wagon. If he were still here, I figure he'd mention how inactive he was due to RL, but he made five posts before the hammer, and Raivann had the biggest wagon the whole time.

[Herodotus]

if i flip chosen that places suspicion squarely on you

While I don't understand why you believe this, I also have to figure that if you wanted to actually support lynching me tomorrow depending on your flip, you would already have done so.

[Herodotus]

The only vote since post 534 is mine on Don.

So Zorblag and I are voting Don, Don is voting Dry, and you and Dry are not voting.

Speaking of that, I asked you a question in post 548. You don't have to answer, but please consider it. Post 559 contains an indirect answer, so I can be satisfied with that.

But I would like you to vote for someone before the day ends.

[Herodotus]

You know what...let's do both...if you're all willing to indulge me. Can I have the 2 players you would have excluded (of those of us alive) both at the start of the game and now...after all the replacements please?

At the beginning of the game, I would have excluded MM and afatchic (assuming we're talking about the player list at the end of confirmations.)
If the currently alive replacements were all in place, I would have excluded MM and Zorblag.

Of course, if I were scum deciding at this point in the game whom to exclude, I might choose differently.

But as I said when we first did this,

If I anticipated that people would guess they would be excluded, I might do basically the opposite.

[Herodotus]

@MM: what are your answers to your question?

also,

@MM: in post 532, do you consider not voting until late in the day to be a scumtell on me?

[Herodotus]

EBWOP:
I edited that question to make it a little more direct. I forgot I was quoting myself -- so sorry about the misquote.

[Herodotus]

588 and 589 are just a little over my head right now.

unvote

I will vote again once I feel like I understand the gamestate better. If MM or Zorblag would like, you could explain this, but it may just be an issue of fatigue on my part.

[Herodotus]

@MM:
If you were scum, you would have excluded afatchic and Bloodcovenant, as well as Don and Dry-fit?

From 559 I infer that you suspect Don may be the chosen because Zorblag and I were voting for him. Is that an accurate understanding of your paragraph about him? If not, what was the significance of your reference to the chosen? If so, does that mean you believe that Zorblag or I is the remaining mafia member? If neither of us is mafia, and Don is the chosen, that leaves you and Dry-fit, and neither of you chose to hammer Don.

[Herodotus]

vote Don_J

I still find the things I've asked MM about to be important.

[Herodotus]

Glad you're feeling better, MM.

Is there anything you need to discuss before deciding on your vote, MM? I'm guessing that 'tonight' is soon in your time zone.

[Herodotus]

Lacking a votecount, here is up to date voting data:



With black boxes added to say "please vote."

[Herodotus]

By the way, at the bottom of that image is the people we each said today that we'd have excluded.

[Herodotus]

Another note: I don't think it's in our best interests to discuss much during twilight this time, assuming Don wasn't mafia (and I'd say the odds are <50%, so...)

[Herodotus]

Before we do anything, I'd like to point out that a random lynch (using a die roll, for instance) has a 2/3rds probability of winning for the town.
That's not bad. We can try to do better, but I'm not entirely sure we will. It's something to keep in mind, as it negates the ability of the scum to use their knowledge advantage to manipulate, which may be superior to our ability to analyze in looking for the scum or chosen.

That said, I'd like to hear from Dry-fit first. You haven't been lurking, but I don't think I have much of a read on your feelings.

Also, there is a chance that there may be a way for one person to confirm themself as town, but we will see.

[Herodotus]

@Mod: the last votecount is wrong, as Mitey was not voting for Don, while Dry-fit was.

[Herodotus]

You mean how can they confirm themself as town? As I said, we will see.

[Herodotus]

@Dry-fit: Would you then support Zorblag's proposal that Mitey should self-vote?

The point about someone confirming themself wasn't quite right, but this is what I was thinking:

Assume all lynches are random*.
With 3 players alive, the scum have a 1/3 chance of winning.
If the scum had NoKilled, there was a 1/4 chance of lynching the Chosen today, and a 1/4 chance of lynching the scum today. A chosen lynch would be an auto-win, as the scum could NK another townie and endgame the last. That leaves a 1/2 chance of a townie lynch, leading to another NoKill and a final day with the scum having a 1/3 chance of winning. So the scum would have a 1/4 + 1/2 X 1/3 = 5/12 chance of winning.
5/12 > 1/3, so optimal scum play was to NoKill. Whoever was scum obviously wasn't aware of that, therefore if someone was to state that the optimal scum strategy was to NoKill, they would almost necessarily be town. Voila, nearly confirmed town.

* But this is where the whole idea breaks down. The lynches aren't random, so it is possible that killing Zorblag was a better strategy than a NoKill. Especially since we weren't going to lynch him.

[Herodotus]

@MiteyMouse:

What are your thoughts on which of Dry-fit or I is more likely to be scum?

Also, who do you think would have been lynched today if:
1. there had been no kill
2. you had been NKed
3. Dry-fit had been NKed

[Herodotus]

Hero, why didn't you ask about a scenario where you were nightkilled?

I didn't think of it, but that's a good question too.

[Herodotus]

You hinting around me being able to confirm myself as Town by self voting

What? Who said that?
I asked Dry-fit whether it was his belief that you should self-vote.

What you're saying doesn't even make sense. If anyone was to self-vote, the game would end -- confirmation of towniness would be meaningless.

[Herodotus]

@MiteyMouse:

What are your thoughts on which of Dry-fit or I is more likely to be scum?

Also, who do you think would have been lynched today if:
1. there had been no kill
2. you had been NKed
3. Dry-fit had been NKed

1) probably me.
2) No idea...I'd say probably not Zorblag unless he was to self vote
3) Probably me...hehehe

As to which of you is Scum, I'm not sure yet. You hinting around me being able to confirm myself as Town by self voting is kind of striking me as eager Scum like and the fact that you didn't think of the scenario of you being Night killed is not making you look better. Right now, you have the lead.

Do you have an answer about that scenario of my being NKed?

Also, I'd like for you to expand on the second scenario, please. Zorblag was pretty clear about (1) his suspicions, and (2) who he thought were the most likely to be the chosen. Please try to extrapolate.

[Herodotus]

Then what did you mean by being able to confirm as Town? I thought that you meant me and following Zorblag's plan.

therefore if someone was to state that the optimal scum strategy was to NoKill, they would almost necessarily be town. Voila, nearly confirmed town.

I know I said it in the same post that I asked that question of Dry, but I felt that it was clear that this was what I meant.

[Herodotus]

Mitey: so far you have

N3 no kill (Dry, Her, MM, Troll alive) => probable Mitey lynch
N3 Dry killed (Her, MM, Troll alive) => probable Mitey lynch
N3 MM killed (Dry, Her, Troll alive) => ?
N3 Herodotus killed (Dry, MM, Troll alive) => ?

Your lack of answer on the third scenario in particular makes me wonder a little if you have knowledge that it is impossible (i.e. you are mafia.)

There is a point to this, and I'm anxious to get to it.

[Herodotus]

:sigh:

Dry-fit, if you, Zorblag, and I were alive, which player do you think would be most likely lynched (given that we now know Zorblag was a VT)?

[Herodotus]

I'm not refusing to answer, I wouldn't have any control over what happened after so, it is not my place to speculate...

Speculation is a pretty important part of mafia, IMO.

Anyways, here's what I'm thinking.

Suppose I was scum.

That would mean one of you was the chosen, and I would win if and only if that one was lynched.
If Mitey was the chosen, I could have killed Dry last night, and Mitey says that probably would have led to her lynch.
If Dry was the chosen, I could have killed Mitey last night, and Dry says that probably would have led to his lynch.
In both cases, I agree, though I think it would have been even better for me to no kill. Anyways, my point is that I-as-scum could have had a nearly guaranteed win if I had made any NK

other than Zorblag

, but the kill on Zorblag makes things more difficult for me.
Therefore, the last NK makes no sense for me if I was scum. (The Papa Zito kill didn't help me either, but that's not as important.)
Consequently, you can assume I'm town.

Now, would the two of you please each tell me why the other is the scum, and you are not? I can't decide. And you may as well vote each other; I won't hammer until I'm pretty confident.

[Herodotus]

Zorblag was the most town-looking, I agree. But since he was a VT, if he was alive, the scum would not want to get him lynched; they would want him to vote for the chosen. You have already agreed that you would probably have been lynched (if you're town, that means Zorblag would have voted for you and the scum would have jumped on) if Dry or no one had been killed. Do you dispute that Herodotus-scum would have had a much easier win in that scenario if you were the chosen? Would you dispute that a similar argument applies to Dry-fit if he was the chosen (especially a no kill, followed by a MM-VT lynch)?

LOL at your second paragraph.

[Herodotus]

My answers are generally in agreement with yours and Dry's.

N3 no kill (Dry, Her, MM, Troll alive) => probable Mitey lynch; if Mitey is a VT, then a probable Dry lynch on the following day.
N3 Dry killed (Her, MM, Troll alive) => probable Mitey lynch
N3 MM killed (Dry, Her, Troll alive) => probable Dry lynch
N3 Herodotus killed (Dry, MM, Troll alive) => probable MM lynch

Basically, Zorblag and I probably would never have voted each other or self-hammered, because we both thought that both of us were town and that more likely than not, one or the other of us was the chosen. So the other player(s) might be lynched, but neither of us would likely be.


This thread need more Dry-fit.

[Herodotus]

Wow. Did you

both

have to be so scummy in your responses?

I made a comprehensive - and

valid

- argument for why it is illogical to think I'm scum. I further decided to put the question to the scum by asking him/her to vote for the other player. It seemed to me that the scum would only go along with the plan of "Now, would the two of you please each tell me why the other is the scum ... and vote each other" if the chosen was the other townie, and not myself. Thus if you did both vote each other and try to convince me, it would mean that I wasn't the chosen, so I would self-hammer. If, on the other hand, one of you was opposed to my idea, while the other was okay with it, that would mean it was very unlikely that the one willing to go along with the idea was the chosen, which would make them a safe lynch.

Mitey's reaction to that was to dispute the conclusion without disputing the argument. She further wanted me and Dry-fit to vote each other, even though none of her play has made a pro-town impression on

anyone

throughout this entire game. This fits the profile of MM-scum Herodotus-chosen. In fact, I was becoming pretty sure this was the case as of post 646.
However, Dry-fit's lurking was bothering me, so I wanted to hear from him first. Sadly, his response is pretty similar to Mitey's, and a bit of a piggy-back. His presence in this game remains minimal. This gives me the impression that he may be scum trying to take advantage of Mitey-town's irrational paranoia or lack of comprehending what I wrote.

So, as I said, you are now both looking scummy. Whichever of you is town, I'm going to be pretty upset about your play on this day.

If either of you actually wants to make a case on me, then please start by explaining:

1. Why I would bus my partner - hard - starting less than 6 hours after replacing in, and at a point where most people weren't suspicious of Raivann, including telling Papa Zito:

Anyway,

unvote; vote: Raivann

. Pressure produces results.

Pressure? I want this to be a lynch wagon. Do you, or do you not?

even though I had a town read on PZ, and he was a vanilla.

2. Why I would NK the two players - Papa Zito and Zorblag - who seemed to have the strongest town reads on me.

3. How Zorblag-town and PZ-town developed such a strong pro-town read on me, and why their reasons were wrong.

4. Most importantly:
Why I would give up what you both seem to agree would be a nearly certain win for myself by not entering one of the Day 4 scenarios we discussed.

5. Whether you feel comfortable about the other player expressing suspicion of me, and whether this looks to you like an indication that I may be the chosen. Also, do the NK's on Papa Zito and Zorblag look to you like an indication that whoever the scum player is wants me to be lynched?

6. If I'm scum, then who is the chosen? Are you okay with lynching the other player, or not? (Note: this point is for argument, it's not a suggestion.)

[Herodotus]

My vote for Papa is due to both him cuddling and the idea that he is less likely to be the chosen. More than that it is the idea that you he and Zorblag are switching codes back and forth about Herodotus.

If I am the chosen, this looks scummy. It looks like an attempt to set up a lynch on Papa Zito or Zorblag if I were to flip.
And it's still suspicious that MM never considered that Zorblag might be sending

me

a message about Papa Zito.

[Herodotus]

Now, would the two of you please each tell me why the other is the scum, and you are not? I can't decide. And you may as well vote each other; I won't hammer until I'm pretty confident.

Wow. So you're advocating a strategy that would result in an instant win if you are scum?

MAJOR FoS: Herodotus

That's an enormous "if," considering the content of the remainder of my post.
But more importantly, see my reason given in 649 for writing the sentences you quoted.

[Herodotus]

How is the same true for all three of us?

Let's analyze every case:

-> will mean "probably leads to"
=> will mean "result"

Dry scum:
No Kill -> Mitey or Dry lynch with higher odds of Mitey lynch
=> if Mitey is the Chosen, maybe a 70% chance of Dry winning, otherwise very low chance of winning
Mitey Kill -> Dry lynch
=> Dry loses
Herodotus Kill -> Mitey or Dry lynch with higher odds of Mitey lynch
=> if Mitey is the Chosen, maybe a 70% chance of Dry winning, otherwise very low chance of winning
Zorblag Kill -> ?

Mitey scum:
No Kill -> Mitey or Dry lynch with higher odds of Mitey lynch
=> if Dry is the Chosen, maybe a 30% chance of Mitey winning, otherwise very low chance of winning
Dry Kill -> Mitey lynch
=> Mitey loses
Herodotus Kill -> Mitey or Dry lynch with higher odds of Mitey lynch
=> if Dry is the Chosen, maybe a 30% chance of Mitey winning, otherwise very low chance of winning
Zorblag Kill -> ?

Nope. There were no alternative-to-Zorblag NK's that I can see that would have made either of you nearly certain of winning.

To call my argument wifom is to suggest that I would intentionally make myself

much

less likely to win, just to be able to say that I made the game harder for me to win as scum. That's not wifom, that's stupidity. A similar argument applies regarding bussing. Just because some scum sometimes bus doesn't mean that it is the simplest explanation for why someone lynched scum.

Why is second-guessing what is obvious better than believing the same obvious thing, or third-guessing?

If Mitey is scum, then I am almost certainly the chosen. But I feel like Mitey actually believes the BS she is writing. In either case, I think Dry-fit is a safe lynch. If Dry-fit is lynched, I'm pretty sure the town will win. I'm not voting because doing so won't prove anything, because I could be wrong, and because I'm not sure whether Dry understands how voting in lylo works with the chosen mechanic.

[Herodotus]

As for you giving up your "nearly certain win"...again WiFoM. You would still need a Town player on board with you.

Are you even reading this game?
Zorblag would have voted for you or Dry-fit. He would have been the "town player on board" if I were scum. Why the * are you revisiting this point after it's already been made? It makes you look like a desperate lyncher, whether you are or aren't.

[Herodotus]

Okay.
I'm pretty sure that if you are the scum, then Dry is not the chosen, or you would have accepted my argument that I was town without bothering to question it.
Therefore, if you are scum, then lynching Dry probably means the town wins. If on the other hand, you are town, then Dry is the scum, so again, lynching Dry probably means the town wins.

As far as insults are concerned, I'm trying to avoid them, but I'm frustrated by the play of whichever of you is town (and it's looking like that is you, but I'm not sure.) I think that your objection to the evidence that I have put forward is incorrect. You seem to agree with the premises for my argument, while disagreeing with the conclusion for no apparent reason.

Do you agree that if I were scum, and I had made no NK, that Zorblag most likely would have wanted to lynch you, and if you turned up as town, that he most likely would have wanted to lynch Dry-fit? If you're still online, please answer.

[Herodotus]

My point is that if I were the scum, I would have wanted Zorblag alive, as his read on me would have been an asset that would have made the game a nearly certain win for me. It would have made it easy to get either you or Dry-fit lynched. That's not a 100%, mod-confirmed proof, but it's pretty strong.

I know it's unusual for someone to make an argument that they are town at a point when no one is pushing hard on them. Is that why you seemed to find me more suspicious instead of less suspicious? In this case, I felt that the reactions of the two of you would be helpful in determining whether I was the chosen, and possibly which of you was scum.

[Herodotus]

OK Hero...that is fair enough.

And yes...you coming out of the blue to "prove" your Towniness rasied all my little flags. Did you come to any conclusions in your little reaction test?

Yes. You responded pretty strongly against my argument. If you were scum and Dry was the chosen, you wouldn't have much reason to do so. That scenario seems unlikely (though not ruled out.)

[Herodotus]

Hmm...

Looking over what I wrote in 653-654, I wouldn't want someone to say that to me.

I'm sorry. If I could, I would change the part you cited to "But I feel like Mitey actually believes what she is writing, even though I don't consider it a credible position from my point of view." And 654 to just "Zorblag would have voted for you or Dry-fit. He would have been the "town player on board" if I were scum. Why are you revisiting this point after it's already been made? To question this in the fashion that you are makes you look like a desperate lyncher, whether you are or aren't."

[Herodotus]

I think I understand it, but maybe not . Why would my not understanding the mechanic make you not want to vote for me?

In most games, when the first player votes for another in Lylo, that makes it safe for the votee to vote back. With the chosen mechanic, it is possible that the chosen votes for the VT, which is safe, but a return vote would be a losing idea. One of the reasons I didn't want to vote was the possibility that I'm the chosen, you're the VT, and you would take my vote as an indication that you may as well vote me back.

How do you feel about my idea that you are a safe lynch for today? If you are a VT, then you can only be lynched if (a) you self vote, or (b) the scum gambit by voting you and the chosen also votes you. If you are scum, then you can only be lynched if Mitey and I agree. If you are the chosen, then if the VT votes you, the scum will hop on.

[Herodotus]

1. Do you remember the reason for my vote at the time?
2. You have each voted for the other previously. Bloodcovenant aka. Dry-fit voted for you on day 1; you voted for Dry on day 3.

If you're going to argue that I'm scum and Dry is the chosen, use a better premise, like the fact that I'm suggesting Dry is probably a safe lynch. Of course, your posts 666-667 make me more convinced than I was before that he isn't the chosen.

[Herodotus]

If Dry is scum, then I don't know which of us is the chosen. I'd have to do a reread specifically for that to try to figure it out, but until then I couldn't even make a good guess. If Dry is a VT, then I would have to be the chosen by the process of elimination, as I know I'm not scum.

[Herodotus]

I intend to make a reread of at least BC/Dry before I vote. That should be soon. This game is starting to feel like it's dragging, so I look forward to finishing, but I don't want to screw it up out of boredom.

Once I've voted, I doubt I'll move my vote at all after that, unless we have a deadline issue.

[Herodotus]

Not hammering ITP.

[Herodotus]

Now, would the two of you please each tell me why the other is the scum, and you are not? I can't decide.

I'm leaning toward a Dry-fit vote based on day 4.

[Herodotus]

Some things I'm looking at from day 1:
(Only got through the first 11 pages rereading so far.)

BloodCovenent post 102 does not particularly look like he was Nuwen's scumbuddy.
Except that he voted for Mitey just before she went V/LA, and not Nuwen.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 31#1764231

BloodCovenent post 153 - his list of people to exclude from being the chosen - both TDC and I questioned him on that. Mitey is on his list to exclude.
Also backhanded references to Archon.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 82#1767882

@Mitey, why did you leave your vote on Papa Zito when you went V/LA?

Mitey post 202 - her list of people to exclude from being the chosen - includes BloodCovenent.
No mention of either of the wagons that were at L-2.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 79#1770979

214-222 You were both posting in this area, and Mitey looks worse than BloodCovenent.

Mitey was excluded a lot.

[Herodotus]

if Dry is the Scum then I am the Chosen.

This is something on which you might want to elaborate. Is it possible that Dry is gambiting?

[Herodotus]

If I was the scum, I would have voted already rather than waste time rereading (and take the risk that someone would change their mind.)

My question there was whether you might be a VT.

Is there anything you want me to consider in figuring out which of you to vote?

[Herodotus]

ITP = In This Post
I just wanted to mention that I was declining to hammer so it would be clear that I wasn't scum with MM as chosen.

I'm sorry to delay the game, but I'm busy this weekend. I'll try to finish rereading around 48 hours from now.

As far as getting MM lynched on day 2, a lynch on the chosen would have made it clear that the scum was on the wagon, which would have made surviving two more days difficult.

[Herodotus]

vote: Dry-fit

[Herodotus]

The kill on TDC helped me to be more confident about voting you. I had wondered at the time why he was killed before PZ; upon rereading I noticed his questioning of Bloodcovenent.

[Herodotus]

I think the point of his vote was to make me believe that I was choosing between the scum and the chosen, to convince me to self-hammer. If they had both voted each other earlier, I might have done that, but in this case it was too late. But it was a logical strategy.

About the setup:
I don't think the scum should try too hard to get the chosen lynched until the game is close to lylo. Raivann's day 1 extended vote for me was probably a mistake.
If we hadn't lynched mafia on day 1, I think they would have had a good chance of winning.
With three goons, I'd consider it unbalanced toward the scum. If a townie is lynched on day 1, day 2 will be 8-player lylo. Adding an extra townie would extend this to day 3; it's not clear how balanced that is, but it would make it relatively easy to get the chosen lynched.