Mini 804 - The Resistance - Mod Abandoned

[veerus]

what they said

[veerus]

Why?

[veerus]

I don't think it matters wheter we random or wait a few days while we discuss the various outcomes. It's nearly impossible to know whether or not someone is scum on D1, so in the end the distribution will be mostly random anyway.

However since we only have 3 bases to play with, we can not afford to take many chances. For that reason, I think we should have some discussion because, if anything, it may benefit us down the road when we do have some information to work with.

[veerus]

Alright, based on the current discussion, I would vote against the current proposal. I'm ok with ABR and NN but we shouldn't give the plans to Crazy.

Not sure about FL -- she's often very erratic in games. It's a null-tell at this point.

[veerus]

I'm for a random distribution as long as Crazy is not in the pool, thus my rejection. I propose we do another 3-person random and go with that.

[veerus]

In subsequent rounds, I definitely think we should try to get as many pro-town people as possible, but here, I don't think it matters that much, because whatever happens, we benefit. Fishy might be right that the least ideal situation is exactly one spy in the group; I don't know about that,

and I don't think it's necessarily true that that spy will always sabotage.

*shrug*

You want to see how scum could daytalk? Here's the first example. A comment which, coming from someone to whom the plans are being distributed, could imply he plans not to sabotage them tonight.

This started it, for me anyway. While it may have seemed a simple attempt at theory, your subsequent attempts at defending imply that Fishy may have been on to something.

[veerus]

Psycho, you're forgetting that we would have an extra set of plans to distribute every time in that scenario.

Look, this all comes down to the fact that there is NO optimal play since there's always an optimal counterplay. According to boardgamegeek's website, odds of rebels winning are 56% and spies 44%. Results threads on there seem to confirm that. So it's pretty close to 50-50 no matter what happens. Best way to go is to randomly distribute the plans and evaluate results based on those people's posts. In fact, based on this logic, I would now support the original proposal since that was our first true random.

[veerus]

hm, i didn't realize that... I'm still for a

random proposal

however. If we hand-pick people we will likely WIFOM ourselves to death and be forced to doubt all of our reads based on the results, especially if they are not what we expected. If we randomize the plans, we can evaluate the results in hindsight without a preconceived notion of who will do what.

[veerus]

Psycho, you're forgetting that we would have an extra set of plans to distribute every time in that scenario.

Okay, I missed out this sentence yesterday and only saw this in my reread, but I don't understand what this is supposed to mean. I'm assuming this is in response to what I said about the 3-scum-not-sabotaging scenario. Are you saying that if we destroy a scum base we get an

extra

(two) plans the following day? I'm pretty sure that isn't the case (I read the rules again after this to make sure I didn't leave out anything there again). Can you explain what you mean by that and exactly how it contradicts what I said prior to that?

You said that if there are no sabotages, we should give the plans to the same 3 people which will either lead to victory or force scum to show themselves. However that plan falls apart since with each destroyed scum base, one more plan is distributed to the group. So even if the original 3 are all town and the 4th is scum and he sabotages, the argument could be made that any of the 4 could have sabotaged. Which basically goes to my point that there's no optimal play since each variant has a viable response.

[veerus]

I will divulge which players I deem worthy of the plans when the leadership coin passes to me. Until then,

I am willing to trust players such as veerus, finding nemo and wesley snipes.

haha this quote wins!

Let's just random and get this over with. At this rate we will never agree to anything a single person will propose and I'm pretty sure we're way beyond our original 72 hour deadline.

[veerus]

I don't see how those in favor of a random D1 proposal are any more scum than those who aren't.

Here's my list in no special order: me, fishy, N^2, ortolan, FL

[veerus]

So how about putting together that guided proposal everyone spoke so highly of?

[veerus]

Why those 3?

[veerus]

Veerus, KOC, ABR for continuing to support silent, random distribution in the face of overwhelming odds. I have yet to see from any of them an explanation of how their strategy delivers us anything better than 5% odds of winning.

First of all, I'm only pro-random distribution in D1 and maybe D2 depending on results on D1. Not all the way through the game. I believe it would offer us an unbiased pick of people whose results we can then evaluate in hindsight. The possibility of scum nominating scum injects too much WIFOM into the process.

[veerus]

I'll probably vote yes because it's a reasonable proposal and because this day needs to end already.

[veerus]

I'll probably vote yes because it's a reasonable proposal and because this day needs to end already.

Scummy. The day ending with one sabotage which pretty much proves fl is scum, which we already know, gets the rebels no closer to their win-con.

So wait, my view doesn't agree with yours therefore I'm automatically scummy? Great theory. What will you say if there are no sabotages? Or two? Or three?

At this point, as far as I'm concerned, any proposal is random since all picks are made on pure speculation.

[veerus]

At this point, as far as I'm concerned, any proposal is random since all picks are made on pure speculation.

That doesn't make any sense at all. In a normal mafia game Day 1, is all discussion just useless speculation and no better than a random lynch?

D1 discussion in normal games is not pointless. However think about how often scum is lynched on D1. Almost never. Scum are generally found later after a few days worth of information.

Here, you're basically trying to pick out three townies (at least that's the current idea from what I understand). No matter whose math you use, it's obvious that odds of that are extremely low. Without any concrete information to go on (ie sabotage results), claiming you have any solid idea of who the scum are is akin to just about any other outrageous claim you can think of (like knowing who will win the next Superbowl or the World Cup). Therefore, to me, a D1 proposal is random no matter how you spin it.