Mini #764: Notre Dame Mafia, Game Over

[ortolan]

There are so many people that need voting out. AHHHHH, I can't decide!

vote Kinetic

If you're scum, the game is already lost.

This is a weak meta-joke which just happens to carry the implication that you don't know who scum are, and therefore are not scum.

I was his scumbuddy in a game and nom'ed him for a scummy for best scum and he won. So yes, I'd say he's good at being scum,

though I don't see any way he can fakeclaim his way to victory in this game.

Well obviously, because it's (almost entirely) an open setup. Why was this comment necessary?

Also, I wouldn't worry too much about replacements. That newbie game was probably the worst in terms of needing replacements (three people and a mod day one) I've ever seen.

Attempts to finish off the post with positive-for-town message (Yay I'm glad we won't need replacements!)

That's two posts with psychologically scummy content.

Vote: charter

[ortolan]

Oh wow, never mind then.

?

[ortolan]

can you explain your maths on the percentage of cards the mafia might know Kinetic

At this point I think a mass-claim's a decent idea.

[ortolan]

I'm pretty sure that each player knows the cards they have, plus one card the person after them has, plus two cards one of which the person after them has and the other which the person after the person after them has, but they don't know which.

So really, they have less than a 50% knowledge of who has what card.

Your point is noted though, collectively they do have more knowledge than any one townie so a mass-claim would be good to counter-act that and catch lying scum.

[ortolan]

I think anyone (in addition to AceMarksman) who passed the 1/4 nk cards should claim.

But otherwise, I guess charter has it (seeing as ABR said he passed two nk cards).

charter do you have two night-kill cards or just one?

[ortolan]

so you passed a night-kill card to Kast charter?

[ortolan]

Claiming plague targets is the scummiest thing I've ever heard. Either you've chosen a scumbag, in which case one of the mafia will definitely apothecary their buddy in time, or you've chosen a townie, which is bad and this townie might not have the luxury of a sanctuary. Either use it unannounced, or don't use it. I still think it's a card substantially more likely to help scum.

I believe we should be claiming what we have done with rat cards though- there is zero town motivation for using this card because the only potential town night-kill method is plague anyhow, which it doesn't assist with. Any objections?

[ortolan]

I will reply tomorrow, I'm still lost in Kast's posts

[ortolan]

I guess the case against Zwet seems more objection to Zwet being a vigilante AT ALL? It seems like a pretty weak case.

Yes. I agree.

ABR is acting entirely similarly to a scum-flipped game. I will come up with a proper post later.

[ortolan]

I'm treating the early-game mass-claim discussion as kind of null-tellish.

It is certainly viable Kast was just telegraphing to his scumbuddies any advice regarding the mass-claim if it were to take place, as well as possibly discouraging it. I also think it's very very possible Kinetic, Kast and charter are all town.

The people who should MOST likely gain protections from players who have them now is those who have not drawn their protection cards yet. These are the players more likely to draw them and use them in the late game when it matters.

Scum's best strategy is to eliminate players who haven't yet drawn cards which are good for town, and keep players who have cards which are good for scum left to draw.

By protecting the players with good draws left we force the scum to kill less optimal players and therefore gain an advantage.

You're forgetting the rat cards though. This is why I support only a partial claim of some cards. Just rat and whether you've passed a night-kill on. I do not think scum should know about potential vigs (those with the plague card). It just gives them advice on who to try to encourage these people to vig, plus it's probably pretty easy to work out who these people want dead from what they say- if it's a scumbag scum will make sure they get apothecaried in time, if it's a townie scum will leave them alone. Use your discretion if you have a plague card, but please think twice if you don't trust yourself with them

I do like Kinetic's 88 analysis though.

Plague because we should know if town kills town, and not give the scum an out.

No. For reasons above.

Vote zwet

This man should not have any offensive type cards.

This was totally unjustified when he hadn't expressed any intention even of using them at that point.

I'm not lying, btw. I've got Plague, Rat, and Double.

Another reason why zwet should be lynched today.

This is weak. Then we have AceMarksman pressuring "lurkers" in the next post rather uselessly.

Vote:Kinetic

Here’s why:

First, he tries to set up everyone’s draft picks for the next two drafts in his post 88 leaving cards that would help the scum (mimic and double) near the bottom, and putting some that town might need (apoth, cop) near the bottom (putting cop on the very bottom second draft). This doesn’t help the town at all.

Next, he asks for a Plague claim (along with everyone else, including me) In 108.

The main thing drawing my vote, however is post 116 to post 120 where he claims intent on using he plague card against someone without telling anyone until his target dies. What would the town motivation be behind this? Nothing stands out.

Then he goes on to insult ABR in post post 122 for agreeing with my assessment of Kinetic’s plague card choice.

He told you why not telling someone when you've plagued them is a good idea. I wouldn't even have wanted the plague cards claimed in all honesty. We have at least two nights to get apothecaries on the most townie players as judged by themselves and the other townies, which is more likely to leave scum assuming decent townie choices. And "insulting ABR" isn't a reason he is scum.

I'm planning to double plague and use it both days. Is that allowed?

I would really like you not to Please assess your own ability genuinely before using plague cards haphazardly.

Yeaaaah sure, like I'll let that happen.

Wake me up when you're ready to lynch zwet.

Zzzz

As I said before the aggressive nonchalance is just like a now-finished scum-flipped game of ABR's. Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia 2: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10103 Here he pursued Empking day one- another easy target like zwet is for meta purposes, and even offered to sacrifice himself to kill him. I haven't played with ABR in any other games but thus far I see no differences between this game and one where he flipped scum

This game needs less WIFOM and more lynches. Just sayin.

I really don't like zwet's intent to double a plague. I sense scum motivation behind it. Kinetic has redeemed himself (slightly) so,

Unvote, Vote zwet

*wakes up ABR*

Why has Kinetic redeemed himself? Why are you buddying up to ABR? I have you both down as the scummiest currently (you in the lead) but wonder if you'd be so blatant with a scumbuddy.

I support a 1/2 Cop claim (either now or on Day #3). 1/2 Cop claim on Day 3 will keep scum from killing the 1/2 Cops earlier (they may not have incentive and may kill them anyway, but IN CASE they are aiming for them, it will be harder). A Day 3 claim will probably flood them with too many targets, and we can expect to have 4 investigations and lose 1-2 from death and/or scum pretending to be a Cop. If there is a lying scum 1/2 Cop claimer, we force him into playing one 1/2 Cop card and potentially a protection card.

Ok, so why would you be happy to claim

today

also?

Plague claim is questionable.Townies who defensively drafted plagues or decided to play vigilante could be setup as mislynches. I don't really see the benefits. The argument that we can find townies who use the plagues seems intended to setup for false-positive identification.

Kind of agree here, as I said.

@Ace,Budja,Zwet,ortolan 92,94,96,97,98,99,100-
Were you guys were saying Ace posted "oh shit" as a scumslip (indicating his regret/displeasure with himself) because he passed a 1/4 NK instead of keeping it?

The other reasonable contextual reading that I can see is that he said "oh shit" as an exclamation of shock at how the 1/4 NK went from something miniscule to something major.

The latter doesn't make sense as a scumslip. The former implies that you understand and realize that he did indeed pass a 1/4 NK (so is not necessarily a scumslip).

I never said anything about this being a scumslip. Either or both is a possible explanation for his "oh shit" comment though.

@ortolan-
Thank you, for using some logic and realizing that ABR passing two 1/4 NK cards means that Ace had to have passed him one. Let me know what you think of my other posts.

Presumption of towniness so far.

@ABR, 106-
Why do we need a partial claim to find out when a townie kills a townie? What stops scum from claiming to be a townie killing another townie? What stops scum from pretending they don't have a plague, then killing a player and letting the townies who honestly claimed plague cards take the fall?

More good points.

This is less than ideal picking, but if we agree that all future ¼ NK cards must be either single passed OR double passed, we can limit the only double ¼ NK to one of {Charter, Kast, KidIcarus, Kinetic} (ideally we pick the single/double pass randomly and we pick which player gets the double 1/4 NK randomly OR potentially we could vote on each or use some other method). Lynching any of them by Day 2 (or if one dies on night 1) allows us to guarantee no bonus NK unless scum lie about a first pick NK card. If a player lies, he will be caught by Draft #3.

I am a bit confused here, but I think the idea is if you pass on the NK cards rather than keeping them you have an extra person that can verify exactly where they went. If you pass someone an NK card both you and they know who it's gone to, and if you pass it on in your first pick then you might even get a third person, who receives the card, knowing where it's gone. Is that the idea?

In my current state of mind I honestly can't be bothered trying to make sense of that really convoluted argument with different states to determine KI's alignment but I do agree that the cards he passed to Kinetic aren't that good an indication of his alignment necessarily, for the standard reasons of WiFoM.

There is no reason to play the Rat. There is no possible way for any townies to NK scum within the first two nights. At best, you waste a night cycle, at worst you allow scum to NK a townie through his protection. This should not be most likely. This should be definite.

That's true.

The other statement specified that a player who passes BOTH sanctuary AND apothecary is suspicious. There are some cards that I would pick over both of those, but not many. I didn't name which cards and there are obviously difference in opinion between multiple players. This could not help them explain their first pick even if they did pass BOTH sanctuary AND apothecary, because I did not provide any reasons to explain card picks in preference to Sanctuary or Apothecary. I didn't even name the cards that I believe are better picks. Now, Kinetic has attempted to share his thoughts with scum.

I believe passing apothecary is a null-tell because scum want it just as much as town do.

You can still scum hunt. You obviously did not know everything I stated already. You obviously did not agree with everything I stated already. It would suck enormously if we proceeded blindly with a mass card claim, then allowed scum to invent justifications for finding specific player choices scummy after the fact.

That's quite true as well.

Take everything Kinetic posts with a grain of salt.

He is completely wrong about keeping 1/4 NK. There are at least 3 players, as of post 88, who have 1/4 NK cards. There is a 61.82% chance that at least one player out of charter, Kast, and Kinetic is scum. If we follow Kinetic's plan, we give scum a 61.82% chance to guarantee an NK AND we will have no way to determine which of the three out of Charter, Kinetic, and Kast is that scum.

If we decide to only allow one player to have double NK cards, then we reduce that to a 25% chance of scum having a bonus NK AND we either know that the one player is scum, OR we catch scum the lying scum on Draft #3. Either way, we either stop the bonus NK or catch guaranteed scum.

Can you please elaborate on this scheme if that won't harm it cause I'm still a bit confused.

A static pick list is going to screw the town horribly. Best picks will depend on what you have already seen and played. If you have played protection cards in the past, then mimic jumps WAY up in the list. If you used a Double on Night 2, protection cards jump WAY up in priority. Rat is a nice defensive draft, but at this point, it is likely that scum have already used at least one rat and are likely to draft a second if they have not already done so. Mimic's allow them additional Rats without it being obvious.

Another good point.

Note that Kinetic is presenting a false understanding of plague that is a bit subtle but makes Plague appear benign. Plague kills people during the day, so no voting, no posting, and it lowers the lynch threshold. It does not wait until the Night phase that he claims. It is still arguably the worst card for scum on Draft #3, but it may be a playable card for townies since scum is unlikely to waste early night actions playing apothecaries (if you have nothing better to do, then it doesn't hurt to *test* a fellow "townie" who claims to have used an apothecary on himself).

I believe you (or I) is misunderstanding how it works. It's like a night-kill which works the night after you apply it (assuming an apothecary hasn't been applied to the target) but it resolves last out of everything, in the "day" but at the start.

[ortolan]

when?

[ortolan]

No you have me mixed up with someone else I've never been scum with you

I strongly disagree with telling OTHER townies to use apothecaries on your own plague targets. This opens the door to scum getting townies to waste apothecaries.

Depends on the circumstances I think.

Post 122, Kinetic's style seems to be to start building with logic, then smash his construct and throw the pieces at his target. If he's lucky, the break will leave some sharp/jagged edges to really do some damage. Then add insults to the injury (or add them anyway even if there is no injury).

I have to agree that you use too many ad hominems which detract from the legitimate points you make.

You are wrong about sactuary protecting against plague.

I meant/got it mixed up with apothecary.

Yea, I pretty much feel the same way, I just got this weird "I'm going to bombard you with this so you can't possibly think I'm scum" vibe, and its irritating me more than anything.

Interesting.

ABR (165) and charter (166) are you ackwnowledging that your attempt to lynch zwet is pure policy?

Kast, that was way TL;DR, but the case against kinetic actually came after the fact.

TL;DR, Kast just tried to kill me with a Wall of Text.

Vote:Kast

Diescumdie.

Pure OMGUS vote. I hate walls, but sometimes they do draw scum reactions like this.

Unvote, Vote: Kinetic

Why was this reaction scummy?

also:

Stop using ad hom to bolster your arguments

Stop using ad hom to bolster your arguments

Oh really? Well lets see. I see an example of ad hom from you on this page.

Kast just tried to kill me with a Wall of Text. Vote:Kast Diescumdie.

Y so hypocritical?

This refutes what he said but clearly has nothing to do with his alignment.

The reason Ace's "oh shit" could have been a scumslip is that he could have been hiding the fact that he know the mafia could collect 1/4NK together. Such a strong reaction rung false until I saw his next post and explanation.

All his post said was:

No, I passed a 1/4 night kill without reading the rules closer.

Which I believe is what you are saying his WIFOM was based around to begin with anyway? So why did this post change your mind?

Also, you make a lot of these accusations against me kast, but don't ever say I'm scum or nothing, what are you getting at? Stop beating around the bush.

Kind of a fair point.

How was it untrue? Most of kast's posts were making cases against kinetic, and the next thing kinetic does is vote Kast. He doesn't give any reason except that kast was "[trying] to kill [kinetic] with a wall of text." His vote was OMGUS and I find it scummy.

Do you think scum would be that obvious?

@Kast, zwet used the term "scum-slip". Also how is it inaccurate anyway? This is irrelevent anyway as Ace explained it satisfactorily.

Again, wasn't the explanation he gave just the explanation you would expect him to give anyway? Only it was "overdone"?

I don't like 202-205. zwet has acknowledged an intention to use his cards "wisely", but AM continues fishin'

Strictly speaking, Double+Plague is not really a double kill, it is more similar to a time delay on an already time delayed kill.

Strictly speaking it is a double (as in it has two targets, doesn't it?) time delayed kill. I don't understand what you meant here.

Also, if necessary, Double+Plague could be double targeted on the same player, effectively resulting in just a single kill if the "vig" (in this case Zwet), is pretty sure of one player being scum, but very unsure about other players.

But this then has no effect beyond what you would get from just playing a single plague card?

Metagame. Zwet is utterly useless in any game I've ever read.

Why would we keep him even if he was town?? Lynching him is a 1/3 chance to lynch scum and a 2/3 chance to lynch a jester with vig capabilities.

I dislike the easy policy-lynch.

After Kinetic claimed taking the 1/4 vig, charter definitely didn't say anything about it. He didn't even blink. Then he disappeared for a bit, and started being a cheerleader for lynching zwet. Didn't even mention Kinetic once for making this statement. Now I don't think Kinetic is scum for taking the card, but it seems that charter has completely changed his position on this point, without even mentioning it. Plus throw in the fact that his method of scumhunting is "massclaim and hope that the scum are dumber than the rest of us" and then essentially posting "lynch zwet" ad nauseum and you have his play in a nutshell.

Fair case.

I agree, but I haven't seen a scum accusation from you. Your analytical playstyle is nice and all, but sometimes you just need to grow a pair and say "X is scum because of Y and Z." I know this is your playstyle (from that game you want to reference), but more accusations please. Whom do you find scummy and why?

You can talk.

But since you are pushing, I will share that KidIcarus is the player I am most suspicious of at the moment. He is not suspicious enough that I want to vote for him right now, nor do we appear to be so close to a deadline or so starved for conversation and content that a vote on him is required. I have asked him some questions and raised some points. He has responded and promised more to come. Right now I like his behavior.

He's not a real suspect then.

AM (254): Put it this way. If we don't claim plague targets then the ability is ~ neutral in terms of likelihood to benefit town. If we do claim targets it is much more likely to favour scum.

-His posting has gotten less accusatory.

Has gotten or had at the time you made that post?

-Voting someone for the same reasons as another is buddying?

No but attacking someone else for "insulting" him is, as is "waking him up? Granted I didn't realise the context when I made that point (him saying "wake me up when we lynch zwet"

-Is this pulled out of your ass? I want to see some times where you think I "buddied" with ABR. Is it bad that I have a town read (albiet lazy town) on him?

Why do you have a town read on him?

Vote: AceMarksman

Sorry for the long posts I felt I needed to do the game justice in catching up, and I finally have. I'm glad Kast posts less per post now too

[ortolan]

Who else would you like me to focus my attention on?

[ortolan]

Zwet is, well, zwet, so I can't get a good read on him, but I think he's either Idiot town or scum

This doesn't tell us anything new

I'm not sure about Kinetic, haven't heard much from him recently as his last post was just to avoid a prod.

I want another goomba post, except abbreviated.

These are not expressions of opinions on these players.

Ace comes off impatient and isn't putting up a good defence but my gut says he is clumsy town now.

Please provide something better than that because your "gut" is not a good reason for me to unvote him.

[ortolan]

What are people's opinions on mass-claiming if you have a rat card also? There is no harm in it is there?

Are there possibly good reasons for claiming mimic/double? (I can't think of any really)

[ortolan]

Can we get a full-claim of night-kills and Rat cards now please

I have neither

[ortolan]

@Ortolan-
I am unclear of the value of claiming Rat cards in isolation.

There is no town motivation for playing them unless one is forced to by the cards one has. IF we mass-claim them we may catch scum using them in some instances, otherwise it will discourage scum from using them and thus make town protection abilities more likely to succeed. As I said, I don't see any harm at all in claiming them- they are simply an anti-town card.

[ortolan]

yes, but the most pro town course of action is to take a rat if given the chance to prevent scum from getting it. I don't see where a rat claim helps at this point in time.

It's not for finding people scummy by virtue of having a rat card. It's to trace when they were used later. Please claim rat cards people, there is no reason not to.

[ortolan]

I would appreciate it if you'd post a suspicions list with your opinions on every player AM. Who do you think the scum are?

[ortolan]

rat/NK claims:

I don't have either
Kast has a rat
zwet has a rat
Budja has neither rat or NK
Rishi has rat

Please complete the claims and fill in any I've missed, thanks.

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Hey guys. I'll be the replacement for Slicey.
I briefly skimmed through the game before I replaced into
this, and I was really sure I was replacing scum.
Shows how good my scumhunting is ...
More than 200 posts have gone by since Slicey posted.
Anyways, i'm still re-reading, (on page 10)
but I already feel moved to do this:

Vote: charter

Here's hoping for a good game!
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What did you find scummy about Slicey?

I agree with the notion that ABR insisting on a zwet lynch before he will participate in discussion is clearly anti-town.

8-The plague mechanic is altogether different than the vig mechanic, so I though announcing your kill would be positive.

Yes it's quite different in that the kill is far more readily preventable. So why would you think this would be optimal strategy?

29-again, my meta slaps me in the face

Not really, it seems to be one of the main points against lynching you.

Having thought about plague I believe at this point that, if you're going to use it at all (and it's not necessarily optimal play to use it at all), you should use it night one. Assuming three scum, they only need to get three apothecary cards between them in order to protect fully against plagues (you can replace this with however many scum you think there are), and therefore any pro-town function plagues may have. If plagued night one they will die at the start of day 3, before they've had the chance to use any cards from the second draft. On the first draft scum are less likely to have prioritised apothecary cards but are rather likely, imo, to all be apothecaried by the start of day 4 (after second draft cards can be used). This is why I believe that one should either use plague on night 1, or not at all for the entire game. If used after that I believe the plague is highly likely either to not work or to kill a townie.

[ortolan]

ATTENTION: ABR, AceMarksman, KidIcarus, charter, Kinetic, CTD, zEEnon + anyone who's only claimed one of the two: these claims need to be completed before day's end (in four or so irl days). To not do so leaves us open to potential scum manipulation (lynched/night-killed people can no longer potentially counter-claim scum's cards when they know they're lying):

I don't have either
Kast has a rat
zwet has a rat
Budja has neither rat or NK
Rishi has rat

Charter has an NK (#3)
Kast has an NK (#3)
Kinetic has an NK (#2)

KidIcarus first, then I'd be equally happy with either Budja or Charter. If KidIcarus is replaced, I will have to re-evaluate. I also realize that a KidIcarus lynch is possibly not feasible. If necessary, I will change my vote as we approach deadline to secure one of my other preferred lynches.

Your main point against him is active lurking. Is he honestly your biggest target after all the analysis you did? 217 wasn't a particularly strong case in my opinion. His behaviour is non-contributive/anti-town but I'm not yet convinced of his scumminess.

-Please clarify. Do you think ABR's anti-town behavior is indicative of alignment?

Not sure yet. I do think he should engage in discussion on other issues even if his opinion on zwet is genuine. It's otherwise too easy a screen for potential ABR-scum to hide behind.

It is unlikely that even after two drafts that all scum will be apothecaried. It is more likely that 2 of the three scum will be apothecaried than that 3 of 3 will be. Even then, I think the main concern is targeting. I think townies will have a much better idea of who is scum after information from 2 days of discussion, 2 lynches, and 1 NK, than after 1 day of discussion and 1 lynch.

after 2 drafts they've each gotten at least 2/3 of their cards. Additionally they've gotten any cards passed onto them by the person before them. They don't need to get a card each- one of them can get 2 and use one on their buddy and the other on themselves. They may not have prioritised sanctuary on draft 1 but they will on draft 2 now they know about the utility of town-plaguing. Having in fact had this discussion scum will be even more likely to ensure they get sanctuaries on each other as quickly as possible from draft 2 onwards. Of the three, if one sticks out as scum, the others are more likely to ensure they get sanctuaried as a priority to protect against the only possible method of vigging. Compare this to townies who more than likely need to sanctuary themselves- people can never be too sure about sanctuarying other people lest they turn up scum. Basically you are likely to kill a townie with plague rather than a scumbag anyway, and the odds of you successfully using one and killing a scumbag with it after night 1 get substantially worse. So, as I said, plagues should be used night 1 or not at all. I'm quite convinced at this point to do otherwise is strongly anti-town (and possibly even using them night 1 is demonstrably anti-town, in which case they simply should not be used).

Zwet and ABR: stop this useless bitching back and forth now. It really doesn't help the town. Last time I saw this from zwet, both him and the person he was arguing with were scum.

Link to game and tell me where to look please if it's not ongoing. I wouldn't mind getting a better meta on zwet considering he's in virtually every game I'm in!

opinions on good lynches to follow

[ortolan]

oh ye btw sanctuary = apothecary in the above post, I keep mixing the two up.

[ortolan]

Ort, who do you want to lynch and why?

Gee, hold your horses, I said it was coming in the next post

My candidates are mainly AM, ABR, Budja and zEEnon at present.

I'm now seeing a possible connection between AM and Kast.

Nothing is 100%. You spelling shit out doesn't help. Scum cannot communicate right now and thus cannot coordinate. Stop helping scum.

How is kast spilling out shit? what is he doing to help scum?

This is AM's first post in the game. That's also a clear slight defence. Now I know this doesn't necessarily mean anything by itself but I noticed it on my re-read of AM after observing Kast's more recent reactions to him.

I also notice in Kast's next few posts after that he only mentions Ace briefly at the end of Post 70- he doesn't mention him again in these posts after that but this is because AM isn't posting, fine.

When AM "slips up" in 96 as pointed out by zwet, notably Kast despite making a lengthy post doesn't even comment on him one way or another in his next post 103, not even to say zwet's "scumslip" comment was stupid/unfounded.

He does deal with it in his massive read-through, but I'm not sure about his analysis of Ace:

@Ace, 130-
Post 88, is BS piled on craplogic, but wrapped with a pretty bow. I don't know that this means he is scum though.
Post 108, (or the plague claiming rather) is incomprehensible to me. How does this make him scum?
Post 116-120, there is nothing inherently wrong with Kinetic's approach to the Plague card as a vig. I agree with some of his justifications and if I had a plague in my first 3 cards, I would have picked that top choice with intent to use it on my most suspicious suspect.
Post 122, Kinetic's style seems to be to start building with logic, then smash his construct and throw the pieces at his target. If he's lucky, the break will leave some sharp/jagged edges to really do some damage. Then add insults to the injury (or add them anyway even if there is no injury).

Already he is "unsure" of whether AM is scum despite his "scummy" posting.

Then AM throws his vote out in response to Kinetic's "wall-o-text" vote on Kast:

Pure OMGUS vote. I hate walls, but sometimes they do draw scum reactions like this.

How was it untrue? Most of kast's posts were making cases against kinetic, and the next thing kinetic does is vote Kast. He doesn't give any reason except that kast was "[trying] to kill [kinetic] with a wall of text." His vote was OMGUS and I find it scummy.

Possible scumbuddy defence.

@Ace-
Most of the post content in my recent posts was NOT making cases against Kinetic (or Charter). Showing that something makes no sense is not the same as showing that it indicates a player is scum.

Showing he knows AM's interpretation is wrong.

I agree, but I haven't seen a scum accusation from you. Your analytical playstyle is nice and all, but sometimes you just need to grow a pair and say "X is scum because of Y and Z." I know this is your playstyle (from that game you want to reference), but more accusations please. Whom do you find scummy and why?

Possible coaching of his scumbuddy to launch case against someone.

If you'll notice Kast's posts in response, 241, is quite scummy, not really expressing strong reads of any players e.g.

But since you are pushing, I will share that KidIcarus is the player I am most suspicious of at the moment. He is not suspicious enough that I want to vote for him right now, nor do we appear to be so close to a deadline or so starved for conversation and content that a vote on him is required. I have asked him some questions and raised some points. He has responded and promised more to come. Right now I like his behavior.

He is most suspicious of KidIcarus but right now he likes his behaviour (???).

Notably Budja in 273 also defends Ace:

Ace comes off impatient and isn't putting up a good defence but my gut says he is clumsy town now.

This is also after suspecting Ace for crappy reasons and withdrawing his suspicion for possibly even crapper reasons (see: 99 then 267).

Also, AM, having earlier voted for zwet along with ABR, in 298 says:

HOW ABOUT THEM TAR HEELS! WOOOOH!!!

*ahem*

ABR, any reason we should lynch zwet besides his cards?

Notable difference is now Kast has expressed doubt about policy lynching zwet in response to his claim of intent to double-vig.

In 307 AM doesn't want rats claimed, after my explanation in 309 (although I'd already given one)

and

Kast's in 310, AM claims in 314.

And now the reason I got onto the whole Kast/AM connection in the first place, Post 342 by Kast:

MAIN THOUGHTS:
-Reread Ace and Budja.
-I can understand other players seeing Ace as suspicious, but I think his play is consistent with meta as a townie.
-Budja does not appear to be buddying. He may be trying to stir trouble without stepping on toes.
-Charter has a reasonable point about Budja, but also did not adequately address the point that Rishi raised.
-I don't think we are in much danger of no lynch; we have one week and only need 4 votes.
-I am okay with lynching any of KidIcarus, Budja, and Charter. KidIcarus has preference until he posts or if we hear he is being replaced. I don't like how he promised to answer and said he would be able to do so, but then disappeared when I started relaxing pressure but prior to delivering on his promise. I think there are legitimate points against Budja and Charter.
-I think I need to do a re-read on ABR in context, some small things jumped out at me while reading Ace and Budja (mostly things that I hadn't realized he was the one who posted).

He neglects the multitude of scum-points against AM (which I will re-iterate/add to in my next post) and appears ambivalent about Budja, whom charter is attacking, but also appeals to Rishi's attack on charter. He is happy to lynch either one of Budja and charter who are arguing against one another, but not AM. He is also happy to lynch KI for "active lurking" although he's pretty much done nothing the whole game rather than "active lurking" and is about to be replaced.

Overall, I don't think he has done or said anything extremely suspicious. I could see him as either scum or a newbie townie. Based on meta, I know he (at least sometimes) plays like a newbie when town.

It's funny that firstly he didn't bring this up earlier when dealing (although he doesn't mention him very much) with Ace and secondly he's happy to give AM a free pass but instead wants to lynch: one of two people who are arguing fervently against each other (possibly so he can get the other lynched the day after?), or an "active lurker". This is despite having made by far the longest posts in the game, and by far having posted the most "analysis"- his suspicions are still expressed weakly- with much less weight, for example, than mine are, even though I've posted less.

So this relies on AM being a bit newb-scum and buddying up to Kast. But I think it's reasonable considering how readily Kast invokes the meta defence. It is of course possible they're both town. But there are more than enough reasons Ace is scummy by himself for him to definitely be the optimal lynch today. I will get onto reiterating exactly why he's scummy after I've deal with ABR in the next post.

I shall also explain I'm not entirely sure about Budja- I have noted some scummy things and he will need further investigation later depending on today's lynch. In this post and my next I will do more than enough analysis for me but I might do something on Budja before the day ends. Additionally the only thing I have on zEEnon is his bizarre comment that "I was sure I was replacing scum", when I didn't really see Slicey do anything scummy to begin with.

[ortolan]

I want to see the rest of those rat/NK claims before I make part two of my post tomorrow, we've only got three or so days now.

[ortolan]

Rishi's been added to my suspects list. She's really posted little of substance all game- I think I counted 3 posts expressing anything meaningful. Her case in 224, her longest post of the game features one quote by charter and a 4-line case after it.

After Kinetic claimed taking the 1/4 vig, charter definitely didn't say anything about it. He didn't even blink. Then he disappeared for a bit, and started being a cheerleader for lynching zwet. Didn't even mention Kinetic once for making this statement. Now I don't think Kinetic is scum for taking the card, but it seems that charter has completely changed his position on this point, without even mentioning it. Plus throw in the fact that his method of scumhunting is "massclaim and hope that the scum are dumber than the rest of us" and then essentially posting "lynch zwet" ad nauseum and you have his play in a nutshell.

Vote: charter

Now while I still strongly favour charter answering the cases put against him by others, and thus am only gong to comment generally on this case so far, this is quite an insubstantial case in itself and has recently been referred back to by Rishi in 385 saying the points are unanswered (in other words so she's not obliged to post anything new), and she is still waiting. She also fails to voice suspicion of other suspects. In my experience tunneling on only one person (especially with the very limited case she's made) while failing to consider others (there are 3 scum in this game who are teamed together, you should partly be looking for connections between them) is often a scum-tell. This is because scum don't want to cast their net too wide- if they get caught and they've only been attacking one person then the town can infer only that the one player they've been attacking is very likely-town. Either way tunneling like that doesn't fit the psychological profile of a townie trying to find scum. Rishi should also be aware that we are now very close to deadline and she should be casting her final lynch vote soon- I personally can't see what she posted in 224 alone being good enough to lynch someone.

My reasons for suspecting/not giving ABR the benefit of the doubt are similar. We are getting close to deadline, he has done nothing but tunnel on zwet for getting plague cards- he knows/thinks doing this won't be considered a scum-tell because zwet is often considered anti-town, and knows he can quote "evidence" of zwet being anti-town. This doesn't change the fact he's done nothing else useful and given us absolutely no way of verifying his alignment (wanting to policy lynching zwet is completely a null-tell). If he is town he should be aware that his tunneling is itself anti-town (especially if for example both he and zwet are town) and should cease. Either way I'm a bit unconvinced if he's town that he thinks he's playing mafia if all he's going to do is call for zwet's lynch until one of the two dies.

And to re-iterate I'm pretty unsure on zEEnon- that opening post was scummy but I need to see his explanation first.

Anyway, why AceMarksman is scummy:

*adds Kinetic to the list of people I don't trust with a plague*

Plagueing someone without 1) getting the town's consensus before hand 2) telling the town the day afterwords is scummy. There's no pro-town motivation to killing someone without the consent of the town.

It's clear scum want to know when plagues are being used as much as townies so they can apothecary their buddies. Indeed if plagues were publicly announced the chance of killing scum with them is literally about 0%.

These are the players that we haven't heard much from at all:

-=KidIcarus, Budja, ortolan, tajo, Rishi.=-

I dislike the attempt to earn townie points by "calling out lurkers".

His case on Kinetic in 130 is clearly crap:

First, he tries to set up everyone’s draft picks for the next two drafts in his post 88 leaving cards that would help the scum (mimic and double) near the bottom, and putting some that town might need (apoth, cop) near the bottom (putting cop on the very bottom second draft). This doesn’t help the town at all.

Takes simplistic issue with his card ordering without really considering reasoning/proper interpretation of what he's saying.

Next, he asks for a Plague claim (along with everyone else, including me) In 108.

The main thing drawing my vote, however is post 116 to post 120 where he claims intent on using he plague card against someone without telling anyone until his target dies. What would the town motivation be behind this? Nothing stands out.

Him asking for a plague claim, along with you, is incorrect play (unless we agree not to use plagues at all)- but it can't be scummy from your perspective, as you agreed with it.

And your second point is outright wrong- it is clearly anti-town to have a system of announcing plague targets, if they are used at all.

Then he goes on to insult ABR in post post 122 for agreeing with my assessment of Kinetic’s plague card choice.

As I said at the time, "insulting ABR" is not a scum-tell. So his case had a sum total of 0 valid points. You could give him the out of being newb-town but there's more to come, much more.

This game needs less WIFOM and more lynches. Just sayin.

I really don't like zwet's intent to double a plague. I sense scum motivation behind it. Kinetic has redeemed himself (slightly) so,

Unvote, Vote zwet

*wakes up ABR*

Doesn't actually explain why Kinetic is no longer scummy in order to jump on the easy policy lynch of zwet.

Kast, that was way TL;DR, but the case against kinetic actually came after the fact.

TL;DR, Kast just tried to kill me with a Wall of Text.

Vote:Kast

Diescumdie.

Pure OMGUS vote. I hate walls, but sometimes they do draw scum reactions like this.

Unvote, Vote: Kinetic

Jumps his vote back on to Kinetic without explaining why his reaction itself was scummy. It wasn't really justified beyond a blanket hatred of extremely, extremely long posts but AM does not tell us why it's a scum-tell.

FOS Ace. You've moved up to Zwet levels of needing lynched.

What have I done to deserve this moniker? Are you referencing my vote for kinetic? If so, then it was well justified, and I have been making cases against him all game. If not, then I don't see any reason for it. Could you explain?

Possible over-defensiveness at a mere FoS. He extrapolates on why exactly charter is FoSing him, despite it not meaning much, not even being a vote. Then 185, aims for more town cred by asking for poptajo's thoughts without contributing anything...and makes similar comment asking for more activity in 189.

Then in 195 AM gets very defensive over his interpretation that zwet has called him scum in 193. 203, asking for zwet's plague targets, if he is scum is indeed interpretable as fishing- scum have so, so much to gain by finding out who is being plagued.

In 220 AM cross-defends Kast.

240: I'm really getting sick of AM's "anti-lurking" stuff considering he's not exactly the biggest contributor himself.

Why isn't Slicey dead yet? It's pretty clear to me that he is scum.

Vote: Slicey

What is your case against him? This seems really OMGUS.

Have you read his posts in isolation lately? Appreciated the fact that he hasn't posted in over a week while he is active in other games? I'm gonna spell it out when I have the time to analyze everyone in detail (probably by this time tomorrow), but I really hate it when people jump to the conclusion that it's "just OMGUS" when two people vote for each other. Are you aware of the fact that his vote for me (or rather my predecessor) is still a random vote back from page 1?

wet isn't the right lynch today. Policy lynches should be left for day one.

CTD: I see what you're saying. I must think on this.

"Let's save the mis-policy lynch for tomorrow, let's just get a mis-non-policy lynch today". Also, how has his mind suddenly changed Re: CTS v.s. Slicey? He "sees what CTD is saying" but the only point CTD made was that Slicey was active in other games while ignoring this one.

HOW ABOUT THEM TAR HEELS! WOOOOH!!!

*ahem*

ABR, any reason we should lynch zwet besides his cards?

I'm also sick of him getting other people to give him reasons to vote people.

307: reluctance to claim rat.

-slicey: I have read him through in isolation, but that doesn't give me much info. I'm actually looking at a connection between him and ABR, whom we haven't heard much from recently. I've also been really bogged down with homework, but it's spring break now, so I'll have much more time.

wth does the connection with ABR come from? I see absolutely no justification for this for the entire game. feigning activity. Another comment about how you haven't heard from someone.

ABR, where did you go? We haven't heard much from you. What do you think of the goomba's recent posts and Slicey's disapearance.

Again...

Charter, I don't fully understand your vote. What reasons did you have, again? How did those cooincide with what you quoted? You bring up posts 5 and 16, are you talking about posts in game or posts made by budja?

Again, making a huge deal out of a vote on himself.

See 316-321 for more deference to other people, ABR in this case while misinterpreting the evidence.

In 322 he cross-defends Budja.

I've already dealt with 355.

Four people posted and no votes for Budja? Disappointing.

You seem to be really set on budja's lynch. This has been noted.

Wow, REALLY?!?! I couldn't have inferred that from his post. feigning "meaningful", "pro-town" comment- in reality has no meaning.

The only games I've played with zwet, he was scum, so I don't have any meta to disprove that.

What does this actually mean, btw?

Right now, I'm not liking charter. I've got him as my number one suspect. I'll put together my thoughts on that tomorrow.

I'm sensing a theme of not liking people on the charter wagon.

In 393, rather than responding to my case on the link between him and Kast

at all

(he has been very quick to defend against even an FoS previously), he is quick to get his vote on the charter wagon just before deadline.

Basically, an AM lynch is optimal not only because he has by far acted the scummiest all game, but it is very, very, very useful information wise.

[ortolan]

charter: do you find Rishi (who is also voting for you) scummy?

What about ABR?

AM: what benefits do you envision from a charter lynch.

From your lynch I see many: it will either disprove or make stronger the link I saw between you and Kast. It will also allow us to better judge the motivation in my observation of you cross-defending both Kast and Budja. It will also provide some clues as to both my and CTD (we are both the only people voting you at present making us busing you unlikely, if a lynch ultimately goes through and you are scum). Finally it will also shed some light on charter's alignment.

[ortolan]

If town: It will disprove an ort-charter relationship (which I am seeing). It will make me consider Rishi as a scum candidate

If scum: It will make me feel good about my scumdar. It will strengthen an ort-charter relationship. It will bring up the issue of bussing between him and budja.

So if you get charter lynched you'll be able to disprove a relationship which so far no-one but you has posited, and which you have not actually argued for (beyond taking advantage of the obvious fact that I am effectively defending charter at present). And you will push for Rishi's lynch, effectively lining up another lynch for you.

If scum: you line up two chain-lynches, myself and Budja- apparently Budja attacking him, peculiarly, means they are scumbuddies busing; in contrast to the nature of all the other connections you've made. Also apparently

you

can't be a scumbuddy busing him, nor can I. Why is that?

[ortolan]

KIDICARUS and ZEENON, PLEASE CLAIM 1/4 NK CARDS AND RAT CARDS (IF YOU ARE IN POSSESSION OF EITHER) IN YOUR NEXT POST, THANKYOU

I believe this list is accurate, please correct me if I'm wrong:

I don't have either
Kast has a rat and an NK
zwet has a rat
Budja has neither rat or NK
Rishi has rat
ABR has neither.
CTD neither
AM has neither
Charter has an NK
Kinetic has an NK

This list means, in the chance that someone is night-killed and someone else used a doctor protect on them- this person should claim and we know that one player with a rat card is scum- then presumably they all claim night actions, one is lying etc. Good shortcut to catching scum. I considered whether all night actions should be claimed at the beginning of each day (scum can't necessarily work out that much about what cards you will get later because they don't know whether a card you used was drawn from your own deck or someone else's, and they don't know what cards you will get passed to you later anyhow.) However this leaves the problem of announcing plague targets, which makes them

clearly

anti-town, if they weren't already, and also does give scum a fair bit of information (if you used sanctuary that round, you probably won't use it next, if you used doctor that round, you probably won't use it next). So I would think mass-claiming night actions after the fact is bad,

unless

specifically you doctor protected someone who died anyway.

ATTENTION AGAIN: PLEASE READ AND COMMENT ON THE FOLLOWING IN YOUR NEXT POST, TO NOT DO SO IS FLAGRANTLY SCUMMY:

Here is my full argument for why plaguing should either not be done, or should be done on night 1:

1) Assuming optimal scum play, scum have a 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 + ? (chance of having been passed an apothecary card to make up for any shortfall) chance of each having apothecaries already. If you use plague night one, then that's before anyone has access to cards from the second draft, at which point scum will have a 2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3 + ? (chance of having been passed an apothecary card after two separate drafts).

Assuming optimal play, townies have a 1/3 + ? (chance of having been passed an apothecary), plus a 2/3 + ? on the next draw.

I'm not sure if the maths on this is convincing but the point is that if all mafia are apothecaried, the plague can no longer serve any pro-town purpose. The mafia have the opportunity to make up any shortfall between them in not getting apothecaried if e.g. one player 0 but another mafia player has 2. Townies do not have this ability to make up any shortfalls between one another. By draft 2, especially after we've discussed this extensively, mafia are very very likely to all be protected. If they are not all protected, then they are very very likely to have used apothecary on their most scummy-seeming players, which means if you just vig the scummiest, even if you're right, it won't do anything. The only way you could hit the unapothecaried scum is by vigging randomly, which is far more likely to kill townies, especially at that point.

Mafia may not have prioritised apothecaries on their first draft, thinking e.g. they could get claims of plagues and then either could apothecary one another or could have a townie volunteer. But after this discussion they certainly will on draft 2.

Finally, sanctuary is a card mafia can safely use and claim, and claim to have used on themselves even when e.g. they might have actually used it on another of their scummates who they expect to get vigged (because they themselves know they look pro-town and are highly unlikely to be), and no-one would be any the wiser.

So, if you are pro-town, use your plague night one, or not at all. I would ask that you show restraint however. Additionally if you have an apothecary I believe you are best off using it by night 2 (the earliest time you can die from it is the start of day 3).

Mod: can I confirm that plague deaths take place at the beginning of the day i.e. they are essentially night-kills delayed one night but they resolve after all other night-actions?

[ortolan]

^^^ and specifically the reason I need everyone's input is that if we can agree that it's blatantly anti-town to use plague after night 1 (including via mimic) then we can policy-lynch anyone who does so, which is desirable.

[ortolan]

(if it's proven they did)

[ortolan]

Ok, let's be clearer. If charter is scum, why is it that, for example, the attack by charter on Budja is a "bus", but, for example, the attack by charter on you guarantees your innocence?

[ortolan]

Rishi and zEEnon are both currently voting for charter. Why did you not raise the possibility of one or the other of these being busing scum, if charter flips scum?

[ortolan]

I would very, very much like a deadline extension for this game also.

I will post tomorrow/tomorrow morning.

[ortolan]

charter still feels town

423 concords mostly with my thoughts

Ort, as far as the apothecary stuff goes, don't scum have to use it on the night they would be killed?

Not sure I understand the question. In order to not die from being plagued, one has to be apothecaried either before they are plagued, on the night they are plagued, or the night after they are plagued.

Oh, I completely forgot about them (mainly because we haven't heard much from them) but zEEnon's vote is from the RVS, no?

No, it wasn't. See post 341. So, assuming Rishi's and zEEnon's votes (on charter) stayed in the same place they were when you made this post, would you have found them likely to be charter's scumbuddies if he flipped scum (i.e. they're busing him), or would you find them likely to be town? I don't like any of the attacks against charter in 424 really.

Of course I don't. I don't believe Ace is scum, therefore for me to join him wagon would be seeking a mislynch for me (from my perspective). In hindsight, this comment is only good for me if you don't believe both Ace and I to be scum.

(Although I think I will have to finish reading AM properly before I can say if he is still town to me).

Here you state you don't believe AM is scum, implying he is town, then state you're unsure about him. Having your cake and eating it too?

It is your opinion that the post was not scummy. An overreaction to a very minor situation like Ace's comes off scummy to me. I have seen scum overreact simulary before and that was I initially thought it could be suss.

I maintain that neither your reasons for suspecting him nor your reasons for clearing him were valid.

I've thought about it and, as much as I don't like it, my lynch will give the town the most information. Is this the only reason for my lynch in your eyes, ort?

I hope you're not serious. See posts 384 and 396. They are so extensive in their reasoning for lynching you that Rishi actually complained about their length.

I just found another thread on the forum showing ABR's "love" of zwet. It seems clear to me now that this vendetta is not just an in-game thing so it is unlikely to be the potentual scum move I was suspecting. That said, I wish you would get over it and just play.

That's part of the problem. All he was doing is pursuing his agenda against zwet, which he would do regardless of alignment (as it exists outsideany individual mafia game also). This prevents us getting a read on him, and this fact is reason alone to suspect/pressure him.

I find AM's behaviour very defensive. The attack on charter was illogical and defence on me was odd to say the least. The biggest thing with AM is that he appears to be trying to look helpful, as the generic questions above show. Maybe I am thinking in circles but he seems too obvious and open to be scum.

The first three sentences are reasons he is scummy. The last is an unexplained opinion that he is in fact town. The three sentences you gave as reasons for his scumminess just aren't easily explainable as simply bad townie play. Especially "trying to look helpful with generic questions", that's scummy in the extreme.

The exchange in 436 437 and 438 is quite viably between scumbuddies.

One thing I feel I should adress because it's of utmost concern for the upcoming lynch is the idea of "lynching to gather information" that AceMarkman has been arguing for. This is complete crap. We are lynching to kill scum, and nothing but. For AceMarkman to argue against his own lynch because of a supposed lack of information to be had

The ironic thing is I actually comprehensively argued for why his lynch is optimal both because his behaviour's been highly scummy and because his lynch will provide a great deal of information.

@ 456 onwards: DGB is a strong contender for being scum.

- I don't like the way her list is vaguely similar to mine but with some players entirely reversed. I disagree with her top two scum suspects (ABR is neutral, charter is town) and don't possibly see how she could be so sure of Budja being innocent (or zwet for that matter, not that I've seen anything scummy from him).

- I don't like her top two suspects being people she has claimed history with (with ABR it's obvious from the fact he replaced out/what I've read and charter's claim in 471 illustrates there's some history there also). As such this, like ABR's attack on zwet could merely be a way of hiding her scumminess (hoping people will write this off as a personal vendetta clouding her judgment if she gets either of them lynched and they flip town).

- I don't like the way her list starts out calling AM very very scummy but gradually brings his ranking round with "townpoints" so that he ultimately lies after ABR and charter.

- I don't like several specific quotes:

"I agree that defensive drafting of plague cards is not an anti-town move. I could even understand if a townie took a plague card with the intention to use it as a vigilante." I'm not sure what to think here.
1 scumpoint Kast

Why?

SPECIAL NOTE: Ace, charter and ABR all vote zwet??? Hahaha, scumbags. They're afraid of zwet.

There's several of these. Very good chance DGB is sucking up to zwet in the knowledge he's town (because she's scum).

This from charter is pretty awful: 'ABR has just been useless. Haven't seen anything scummy from him.'
1 scumpoint charter

I wonder why this is awful. It does accord entirely with what I think, for example. ABR's given us nothing but null-tells.

This:

charter's vote on Kast is a little scummy.
1 scumpoint to charter

is highly scummy when you see what she said later:

Another townpoint to Kinetic for post #84. I'm also seeing Kinetic's point that Kast might have been warning his buddies through daytalk.
1 townpoint Kinetic

She gives charter a scumpoint for voting Kast, but later says she can "see" the reasoning for his actions there being scummy.

- I dislike this:

It's the timing of your vote, and the fact that I view Budja as townish, and the people pushing his lynch as scummish.

when you look back and read this:

I like this from ortolan: "My candidates are mainly AM, ABR, Budja and zEEnon at present." - that's very well in line with my observations.
1 townpoint ortolan

So you think I'm townie for suspecting Budja amongst others, but the people pushing Budja's lynch are scummy? You also find me townie for suspecting the person you replaced, and ABR (obviously).

Because of DGB's post I really do not want Budja lynched. It leaves the door open, if he flips town, for DGB to gain townpoints for having defended him. It is still quite plausible he is town- his constant "having it both ways" may be consistent with his playstyle.

I could go for an AM or DGB lynch today.

I will read continue reading, might post some more.

[ortolan]

Apparently I just jumped over 5 players on your suspicions list.

I always stated emphatically I preferred an AM to a Budja lynch. Just because I find someone scummy and critique their play (all of which was valid), it does not guarantee they are scum. Now zEEnon got himself off to a good start with the "I was positive I was replacing scum" comment but it wasn't until you filled his player slot that you managed to accelerate past Budja and pull into pole position alongside AceMarksman. DGB may yet win the race to the noose, stay tuned.

[ortolan]

I liked ortolan's case against DGB a whole lot, but I disagree with some of his conclusions. DGB has been known to be staunchly anti-bussing when she's scum, and I would expect her to behave exactly the way she does if she was scum with Budja.

Yes, sorry, I should have been clearer but got lost in the hypothesis Budja was actually town being defended for townpoints. I find it quite viable she is scum with him also, and that relates to the way I found her list wierd because some of the players seemed reversed. She may have put Budja near the back simply to get him out of harm's way,

or

because he is town (I'm not sure how blatant she'd be happy to be with a scumbuddy- she might have thought charter was going to be run up at that point and so she could afford to start taking some heat off Budja).

[ortolan]

I will post some more thoughts when ac1983 has finished posting. I would also like to know if he finds DGB scummy (and if DGB's read has been adjusted of this playerslot after ABR replaced out).

[ortolan]

because in my next post I was going to bring up the still viable ABR/ac1983fan-DGB pairing if AM is innocent

[ortolan]

also that's not manipulative at all, asking one's opinions of another specific player is entirely legitimate.

[ortolan]

and btw, DGB is actually 100% guaranteed scum at this point (which is substantially less than the probability of AM being scum, especially having experienced him in two other games now- not that it clears him but if DGB is his scumbuddy, based on what I've observed of his hypothesised scum-behaviour he would not be so quick to bus her as he's done.)

Unvote
Vote: DGB

DGB is very definitely the lynch for today and is now favoured over AM and Budja (and zEEnon, and ac1983fan).

[ortolan]

I will tell you why you all need to be voting DGB tomorrow

[ortolan]

Many reasons to lynch DGB:

1) I've played with her before, know she's a good player and don't see her as town plausibly genuinely thinking I am scum in this game. This is a good reason for me to find her scummy, but I can't necessarily prove this to the town.

2)

Apparently I just jumped over 5 players on your suspicions list.

Yeah, that happens. I trust the reactions I experience

in situ

more than the ones I read about

post hoc

.

This contradicts pretty much

EVERY

opinion stated in this thread: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11190 . Everyone states it is far easier to catch scum when you are removed from the action and thus able to view things objectively.

Also, what was the use of her list if she was going to completely ignore it afterwards (and vote me, seemingly solely for finding her scummy?) Hint: it's because she knows I know she's scum and so OMGUSes me in order to force a conflict which will make my case look less objective (as we are voting each other).

3) 576 is very scummy

Your statement that I'm 100% scum is interesting. You realize that you will DIE when you turn out to be wrong? You will be vig'd or lynched.

This is exactly why me changing to your wagon makes no sense if I'm scum, and therefore why your vote on me is unconvincing.

You can't make that kind of lying statement without realizing you will pay for it with your life.

I think this is just an attempt to scare me but the same point as above applies- if that's true, why would me attacking her make sense if I'm scum and she's town?

@ KAST - help!

This is a "leading" question in the same way my question to ac1983fan apparently was. I think this is an attempt to link yourself to a townie though.

Given the cards that I have, the scum will have to work extremely hard to have me lynched during the day.

This is just like a power-role softclaim - very scummy in this instance and why would you telegraph your cards without even being the leading lynch target? There's only one card which is objectively more useful than the others to a townie anyway, scumbag.

I will tell you why you all need to be voting DGB tomorrow.

Very cryptic ... and useless.

The problem with this is...? It was merely stating my intentions to come up with more points against DGB today.

That doesn't follow. DGB is known to be one of the best undetectable scum players on MS. I find it extremely hard to believe that DGB would so blatantly connect herself with her scumbuddy like that.

Did you read this fully:

I liked ortolan's case against DGB a whole lot, but I disagree with some of his conclusions.

DGB has been known to be staunchly anti-bussing when she's scum, and I would expect her to behave exactly the way she does if she was scum with Budja.

In this scenario, Zwetschenwasser would be the townie she's defending to garner town-points. AceMarkman and charter would be townies she tries to get lynched. Her second buddy would be someone she placed in "the middle of the pack" or someone she didn't bother to mention at all. ZEEnon/slicey, anyone?

Ironically I'm increasingly coming to agree with this paragraph.

I still prefer a DGB lynch to Budja though.

Assuming DGB is scum I actually (despite the apparent anti-busing thing) think ac1983fan is a very strong contender for her scumbuddy. If you'll notice when asked about one another they both gave exactly the same opinion- "neutral" which is rather scummy. And I found it very strange how sure she was of ABR's scumminess when he'd committed what I felt were all null-tells previously. And I know from reading a mafia discussion thread that ABR replaced out of a game previously when he and DGB were scumbuddies.

BTW, to my future replacement, DGB is probably scum, serious fact.

This may well have been a clever attempt at WIFOM in his final moments in this game.

[ortolan]

What do you think of your own predecessor? Do you agree with DGB about how obvscummy he was?

[ortolan]

but you don't find DGB's suspicions of him suspicious?

[ortolan]

It's not OMGUS when I suspected you first.

It's also not OMGUS when it's correct (even if only from my perspective).

[ortolan]

Scum have suspicions, too. Do you think her suspicions arise from a townie thought process?

[ortolan]

I don't know. Not everybody has a typical "townie thought process", I have no clue what DGB's might be.

But don't you want to try and work out if she's scum?

@595 - your attempts to paint me with suspicion might work better if you understood this game is basically an open setup

And why is that scummy? You only say "I know so-and-so is 100% scum IF you have rolebased info. Clearly you don't have such info, since you didn't say my predecessor was 100% scum, and you're attempting to build a gauche case against me. However, the number "100%" is meant to suggest rolebased info, and therefore you are misleading the town. If you succeed in having me lynched, you WILL be vig'ed or lynched for having faked rolebased information. It will be the correct play.

Hear ye: this is definitely not town-DGB. She is taking issue with my wording (making the obvious point that I cannot strictly speaking, genuinely be 100% sure she is scum). For your benefit, it's a figure of speech. I am very sure you are scum though.

Your softclaim nonsense is a wikitell and therefore worthless. A lot of players have claimed cards already, and there's not even really power-role cards. But I'll say no more about them until I hear from someone else who might know which cards I have. Some of your buddies might be in that lot.

I find the double-pronged "pretend I have extremely good cards and thus am a town asset" and "throw suspicion on ortolan for wanting me lynched as a result" quite transparent.

But just for you DGB:

Mod: are there any powerroles this game independently of cards (town or scum)?

That's not under the wiki definition of OMGUS. But it is.

"

don't see her as town plausibly genuinely thinking I am scum in this game."

OMGUS is responding to someone voting you by voting them back and informing them they suck. My point about you is a valid one, albeit potentially only from my perspective.

[ortolan]

Guys, please hurry up, we only have 2 days to lynch DGB.

Ok, just coming back, I really, REALLY don't like ort's list of reasons to lynch DGB. when I have mroe time, I'll go through them listing things I disagree with.

You never did this, and subsequently reiterated you want DGB lynched, which is...kind of odd.

if anyone cares e.g. CTD, Budja was scum in this game: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10654

[ortolan]

not off the top of my head...I started re-reading but didn't get to the end this morning. 60% chances of being scum dont tempt me as much as 100%

[ortolan]

and yes DGB, that is a subjective and somewhat arbitrarily determined probability

[ortolan]

^^ at this point he will be lynched anyway.

If Budja flips scum, I think Ort deserves more scrutiny, as he really seems to be the primary drive in pulling pressure away from Budja while at the same time claiming to suspect Budja.

Very well said.

Yet he's one of your towniest and you're not voting him either?

Someone else feel free to collect the claims, I can't right now. I think zEEnon claimed his plague/NK cards too now though.

I agree that it feels like people are trying to defend Budja or at least pull attention away from him. I don't follow how pulling attention to DGB indicates that DGB and Budja are scum together; on a surface level it would indicate the opposite, and even digging a few levels deeper, it's easier to believe it indicates the opposite as well.


If Budja flips scum, I think Ort deserves more scrutiny, as he really seems to be the primary drive in pulling pressure away from Budja while at the same time claiming to suspect Budja.

If Budja flips scum, it will strongly clear Charter in my eyes, since he had many opportunities to jumped to a different and target, and Budja's lynch was far from a solid runner up for quite some time.

Possible DGB and Kast are scum with Budja.

ORT- Did Budja pick an apothecary or a mimic in his pick#2?

Has it already been confirmed he had both these cards?

[ortolan]

@Ort-
At every turn, you seem unhappy with a Budja lynch. I don't see how you can at all reasonably claim that this indicates *I* am on a scum team with Budja. At best, you are OMGUS suspecting me for pointing out your behavior.

Reread the quote, it was directed at DGB, not at you.

Given that you are the one pushing the DGB/Budja scum theory

I don't believe I've been saying that at all- I said I thought Budja was town which DGB was trying to gain townpoints by, by saying he's innocent when she knows he's going to get lynched. CTD pointed out he is still a likely candidate for DGB's scumbuddy because she is staunchly anti-busing.

I find it extremely suspicious that you don't want to confirm something that objectively helps determine whether the theory is probable or not at very low information risk to the town.

Where did I say I wasn't prepared to help? I couldn't find the post where he'd claimed those cards in my hasty search this morning before going to work, so I wanted to check it was in fact known I had one of those cards before I effectively had to claim one of my cards (in order to tell you which card he'd kept).

Budja- which card did you pick from your own draft?

[ortolan]

So you chose mimic of the cards Kinetic passed you?

[ortolan]

but yes, I can confirm Budja's second pick and his first pick isn't inconsistent with my evidence.

[ortolan]

no, there isn't.

I will be on tomorrow to make sure I can vote Budja before deadline- I will probably gather the rat/NK claims together before then (I apologise to Kast for mixing up plague and rat- and for mixing up sanctuary and apothecary earlier also).

[ortolan]

I think everyone has claimed rat/NK- please do so if you haven't

[ortolan]

@ Kast, I thought you were referring to the first quote in my post where I quoted DGB's reply to you.

FYI my main position has been that I am 100% positive DGB is scum and not sure on Budja- AceMarksman was the lynch I'd pursued the most otherwise but I'm less sure now. DGB is far and away the best lynch target and choosing anyone else is suboptimal.

But FYI, 644 was indeed very scummy where you suggested that if Budja flips scum, this strongly implicates me (I don't honestly care, I'm happy enough to have caught a scumbag) but that it doesn't implicate DGB, who has very strongly defended him. This is also despite CTD mentioning DGB's anti-busing meta. This is all you said:

I can see a third or fourth level reason for DGB pulling pressure from Budja and both being scum; if DGB has terrible cards for scum and Budja has good cards for scum.

[ortolan]

Thankyou for collecting claims for me Kast, I will assume they are correct for now.

I am unaware of the number of votes on the charter wagon (probably an insubstantial last minute scum play by DGB) but

Vote: Budja

[ortolan]

The cavalier way you ignore Budja's totally townie card choices has just given you away.

Why is this even of relevance? He is not my optimal lynch anyway, but I have no intention of lynching charter.

This is why I can see DGB/Kast as scum- hedging their bets- DGB wants to lynch me if Budja flips town, Kast if he flips scum.

[ortolan]

um, WHAT charter? Where did this come from?

I used a doctor protect on CTD last night, at least one scum used a rat card on him

[ortolan]

...which isn't really helpful because some scumbags still failed to claim their rat as of Kast's latest list, assuming it is correct (and AM specifically said the listing for him was wrong)

Anyway, why beat around the bush, I know she is scum so:

Vote: DGB

Still waiting for an explanation for your vote, charter.

[ortolan]

I am going to concentrate on charter now because it's looking like he is in fact DGB's scumbuddy- looking like the only way I can explain his complete about-turn (her coaching him in quicktopic last night).

Bullshit, he wouldn't have died if you did.

Um...have a look at the setup. There are cards entitled "rats". These can be used to negate doctor protections on someone for one night. Scum are highly likely to use at least one of these on their intended target, particularly if they are widely considered pro-town and likely to draw doctor protects. In fact, I happen to know for a fact that at least one scum

did

use a rat card on CTD last night, because I used a doctor card on him. I am wondering if there is any reason we shouldn't mass-claim last night's night-choices (apart from revealing plague targets), then someone may get caught lying (because they in fact used rat on CTD). The only problem with this is people may be able to fake-claim quite easily e.g. "I used a doctor on

random person

. I would be interested in Kast's (and anyone else's) opinions on this issue. I'm also of the opinion that if anyone else happened to use a doctor protect on CTD, they should claim it now- that way we know (insofar as town believes both of us) that both scum's night actions were dedicated to "rat"ing CTD.

He argued for Acemarksman for the longest time, then argued for DGB. He was completely devoid in the lynching Budja process until the very end. Same as Rishi. Also, ZEEnon's replacement is possible scum. I forgot him in my first list.

The person you are addressing here (DGB) was

very

firmly against the charter lynch, in fact for much longer than I was. I was never against the Budja lynch at all, he was 2nd/3rd in my suspects behind AceMarksman and later DGB (and by the end Ace had fallen below him, putting him 2nd to DGB). So tell me why you are so much surer that I am scum than DGB.

Anyone who targeted CTD with anything but helpful cards is possible scum. He was easily one of the top three townies. The fact that you hurt one of the main drivers of Budjascum's lynch is incredibly damning. I could lynch you too.

Quite a few things wrong with this. You agree he was one of "top three townies" (who are the others out of interest, and what order would you place them in???), but you don't believe I would use a doctor protect on him? Why is this?

The other thing is that CTD (confirmed town) very strongly agreed with my case on DGB. In fact, he even said:

Lastly, I am ready to move my vote to DGB as soon as my vote would put her into the lynching threshold. So if someone wants to put another vote on her, please go ahead.

which implies that his top two preferences for scum, at that point were

exactly the same as mine

. Yet, you say he was extremely obv-town (yet not obv-town enough for me to use a doctor protect on, but obv-town enough for Kast to be obv-scum for plaguing him), yet now I am extremely obv-scum?

You never justify in any way why you are "100% sure ortolan is scum" either.

There were two acceptable cards to use on CTD. Those are the 1 shot doctor, and the 1 shot apothecary.

Blatantly contradicting yourself now re: my doctor choice. Also "CTD was obv-town but I will totally ignore his strongly stated opinion that DGB is scum, and only mention it in passing in 720".

No, you get a clue. CTD was literally the worst possible target for a plague.

So now he's moved from the top 3 to the most townie. You still need to tell me who the top three were, though.

...there's more to it than just who was on Budja's wagon. Who avoided it? Who slipped on in the end? Who didn't jump off when there was a more popular wagon? Who pushed for it? Who tried to push other wagons, but eventually gave up?

The answers to all of these questions are extremely telling to people's alignment.

These are mostly good reasons for suspecting DGB. Yet you don't...?

I just read Budja in isolation... and I didn't find him particularly scummy...

I concur.

I must admit I was quite sure of charter's alignment for a while after his role pm trickery, but I'm finding it extremely hard to see his posts today coming from a townie.

This was just charter, I can point out all of DGB's contradictions in my next post.

[ortolan]

I can't believe Kast actually thinks I am more suspicious than DGB, who

NEVER VOTED KAST AT ALL

, continually insisting he was town.

My preferences for scum were also entirely aligned with mr. confirmed town CTD, who

explicitly said he favoured a DGB lynch over Budja

, as I did. Yet I am the scummiest, while he was obv-town according to charter and DGB (having CTD dead is a wonderful thing, DGB is free to claim "yer he was obv-town hehe" despite him saying how amazingly scummy you were. If his reads were so good why aren't you voting yourself???) The point made by CTD that DGB is staunchly anti-busing, and therefore her behaviour is entirely consistent with her being scum with Budja, is also lost on these players.

it's dissapointing that of charter, ac1983fan, Kast and DGB (well not DGB) at least two are town, and at least two are therefore failing to read the game. They would appreciate the obvious fact that DGB is scum.

I would like these four players (one of whom wasn't voting Budja, LuL) to tell me why I should have known Budja was obv-scum earlier and why it is inherently scummy to be the sixth vote on a wagon (basically, the point Kinetic made), and why it is more scummy than never joining the wagon at all, particularly whenthe player in question is a player known and acknowledged to be anti-busing.

That said, having reviewed the wagon I am far less sure charter is scum (he was first to vote). This only makes it more desirable that he answer the above question. ac1983fan was the 4th vote on the wagon, which is interesting. I will admit I'm not sure who DGB's partner is currently.

[ortolan]

I will note that CTD did name DGB as his top suspect for Budja's scum buddy. I think it is a mistake to assume CTD dying means CTD's top suspect is scum. That would be a very foolish assumption.

I am watching DGB, and I agree that DGB is not playing like a clear townie (in particular, I did not like how DGB's vote kept flying around near the end of Day 1 with little explanation). But I definitely think your actions are more scummy.

TOWN: When I flip town, at the very least please, please, please, please, please policy-lynch DGB. Tomorrow you will have at least two out of three dead townies who have said DGB is the scummiest player in this game. If I get lynched today and DGB is not lynched tomorrow I will be very displeased with the players constituting this town.

@Ort-
If you are telling me that DGB is buddying with me; I can see that and I agree it is possible. I'm not sure that it's townie or scum trying to buddy with me. I'll try to not let that affect me.

I'm really starting to think Kast is DGB's buddy ("haha she's been buddying up to me, but that doesn't make her scum hehe"). He's also participating in lining up a lynch on Kinetic which is patently scummy. What's the bet tomorrow, having said "her actions are scummy, but not as scummy as yours, ortolan", and then seeing me flip town, he will go after someone entirely different to DGB (note: even if he does bus DGB out of necessity it won't clear him).

But when it looked like Charter might be lynched, instead of taking action to lynch your number 2 scum and avoid the lynch of your number 1 townie

charter was never my "number one townie"- certainly not because of his play. It was because of his role pm stuff and that I felt the players voting him were opportunistic.

@Ace-
I think you're misreading Ort. He is either suggesting that I am scumbuddies with DGB (hence DGB never voting Kast), or chastising me for not seeing that DGB was trying to buddy with me (I'm not clear which he's aiming for).

Okay, I got that wrong. It was Budja I was referring to, and reading my post you might not have understood that. So, why is it scummy to vote Budja at the last minute, whereas it's not scummmy to not vote him ever? You have said "I find several things scummy about DGB, she is not playing like a clear townie." Yet your sole reason for suspecting me is the manner of the wagon on Budja. DGB never supported the wagon at all, constantly declaring Budja obv-town, especially with his card choices. So she cannot be townier than me on this account, plus you've said there are other reasons for suspecting her. So if anything you have not given any rationale for finding me more suspect than her. Kinetic made the point that Budja wasn't obv-scum at all. Likewise though, he wasn't obv-town, but DGB continually insisted he was. This suggests that she was trying to make it look like she was ignorant/naive as to Budja's alignment, but obviously went too far (how could you be

so

certain he's town?). What do you think, Kast?

I would like Kast to answer the above before someone hammers me

Lynch DGB.

[ortolan]

Yes, but AceMarksman, that's obviously not going to apply when I'm dead and you see my flip, is it. I don't care if you lynch me today- it's pointless trying to derail today's wagon. Just make sure you lynch DGB

if

I flip town. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.

[ortolan]

and also me flipping town will confirm that I indeed did use a doctor protect on CTD last night, which means at least one scum definitely did use a rat card on him.

Now I just want to have a little chat with Kast about DGB, then you can lead me to the gallows.

[ortolan]

I will post some other stuff later, but DGB:

on a scale of 1-100%, how sure are you that I am scum? be totally honest. 100% means it is metaphysically impossible for me not to be scum, in your view.

If you now think zwet is more scummy than I (as would be implied by your vote), please also answer this question for zwet.

[ortolan]

So, basically, you're leaving the door open to lynch either me or zwet, and when/"if" we flip town, lynch the other. Then Kinetic will probably become obv-scum and what'd'ya know you just endgamed.

It's very, very transparent I'm afraid.

I am still more than happy to be lynched today if DGB is lynched the next day if I flip town. Does anyone have any objections to this plan?

[ortolan]

I am still more than happy to be lynched today if DGB is lynched the next day if I flip town. Does anyone have any objections to this plan?

charter. please comment.

[ortolan]

Well, last time I followed your "listen to me and kill me if I'm wrong plan"

This is not the same thing and it's not like I had a choice in that game, anyway. Your response is noted, though.

Why cant you try and get DGB lynched without dying first?

Duh. Who do you think I'm voting for?

I don't think you ever explained why I became so obv-scum as soon as today began. When I re-read, at a certain point you were

very

sure of Budja's alignment yesterday. How come you didn't make the connection that I was scum even then?

Another question: If I were lynched today and flipped town, would you think DGB was likely to be scum? If not, who else?

[ortolan]

Well, last time I followed your "listen to me and kill me if I'm wrong plan" and I vigged you and it didn't work out very well. I would rather determine who is scum without having to lynch townies first. Why cant you try and get DGB lynched without dying first? No one is going to listen to the last thoughts of a dying townie, it never happens, so I would prefer not lynching you if you are town.

Actually, I'm gonna need clarification on this too. Do you think I am scum, or misguided townie. You have never suggested anything but the former this game. So it is odd that you would just out of the blue say you don't trust my (and CTD's) read on DGB, even if I am town.

[ortolan]

But that is the same as your case against me? (in fact your case against me is weaker)

[ortolan]

and that's not the only reason DGB is scum anyway, I will probably do a post on her tomorrow then you can tell me exactly which parts you object to

[ortolan]

what's up br0

I'm wondering whether I should bother to make another whole case against DGB (I've already done so), or just self-vote. It does aggrieve me that more than likely 3 out of 4 of AceMarksman, charter, ac1983fan and Kast are actually

town

, but that's for post-game discussion.

Just for reference, when someone says they are willing to vote either of two people, one whom they are 60% sure of being scum, the other who they are 100% sure of being scum, when the 100% person has been ridiculously out of accordance with her town-meta and generally extremely scummy. If this 60% player flips scum, this does not mean the person was wrong or scummy not to have voted him, it still could very likely be that the 100% person, was scum. It is not even a scum-tell. How many dead townies have to tell you DGB is scum before you lynch her?

charter is a good candidate to be DGB's buddy- there's several things I re-read a while ago on day one which look like deliberate busing i.e. I recall comments along the lines of "hehe I hand you a scum on a silver platter and yet you vote me???"

It's also the fact that he and DGB started off today calling me obv-scum (LuLLo) but when I started to force them into the dilemma of "lynch me and you'd better damn well lynch DGB when I flip town", miraculously they become all hesitant about my wagon, with DGB for example using blatantly shallow, nonsensical and scummy justification like "oh ortolan's tone comes across as sincere".

Now Looker gets suspicion for coming into the game and announcing the obv-fact that DGB is obv-scum.

Vote: ortolan

Lynch DGB tomorrow. I don't have much confidence in this town to be honest but I've shown you what to do.

Oh there's also, just from memory, the fact that DGB yesterday insisted repeatedly that zwet was very, very, very obvtown and now tries to divert votes to his wagon so she can chainlynch me tomorrow.

[ortolan]

-Said he was suspicious of Budja but did not follow up with a vote.

That is factually incorrect, and not necessarily scummy anyway.

-Tried to pull people away from Budja and onto AM at first, then DGB second.

Trying to pull people onto two people who's alignment you do not know, away from a scumbag (when I acknowledged that person

was

scummy, but DGB was more scummy, is not a scumtell).

-Said he thought Charter was a townie yesterday but did not vote to keep Charter alive (since then has changed his mind about Charter's affiliation).

What does this mean??? I stridently argued against charter's lynch so this clearly has a high degree of fail.

-Proposed letting himself die to guarantee the lynch of another player.

It's actually impossible to spin that as scummy any way you look at it. Please explain.

ort is obvscum. I've never seen a self vote from a pro-town player.

First time I've self voted for tactical purposes as town. It's useful in this scenario, to prevent DGB trying to mislynch someone else then coming back to me.

Btw, that whole stuff about "why did you claim to have doctored CTD" was again some very fail questioning. Why exactly would I not claim to have done so? Benefits: shows scum used rat. Cons: ...nothing.

I don't necessarily disagree that Kinetic plaguing CTD was anti-town. It is also interesting it coincided with my declaring one of the scum used a rat card (if he used the rat card he might have wanted to claim an action which was unverifiable in order to mask that action).

[ortolan]

Also I don't like how Kast stretches my behaviour on Budja into two bullet points, but DGB's behaviour, which is far more scummy, makes up only one. The logic that DGB is less scummy than for never having voted at all, particularly on account of her anti-busing meta (which was even discussed

during

day one), is seriously horrid.

[ortolan]

There are numerous cons to claiming your card. Scum now know what you did. They know if you protected yourself, used a cop, used a plague. You tell them what cards they need to play next, or what cards they don't have to watch out for anymore.

Another failure. Sorry, try again. Scum don't know my other cards for a start

although DGB did try to get me to announce them in-thread LOL!!!!

charter's position: it's not scummy to ask someone to declare their cards in-thread for no reason, but it is scummy to claim a night action which demonstrated information about the scum, and gives virtually no possibility for your other cards being identified.

[ortolan]

DGB, if you weren't scum I would say Kinetic, Rishi or zEEnon

zEEnon for the whole "my predecessor looked scummy" (I don't remember anything else from him), Rishi for lurking, Kinetic for his card choice.

[ortolan]

What if you claimed to use your first card, and the person passing you cards was scum. They would know them all LOL!!!!

The person above you, if scum, already knows one and a half of your cards. In telling them you used a certain card, you are not necessarily telling them anything

at all

. This also assumes the person above you is scum: do you think Kinetic is scum. It also neglects to mention why DGB asking me to declare all my cards in-thread, wasn't scummy, but this is.

[ortolan]

You claim to have used a doctor card. That in itself is extremely unusual.

....???????????????????????????????????????

Furthermore, you have use a doctor card on a player that died.

How obv-town, was CTD? If you were scum, would

you

use a rat card on him? I'm actually surprised he didn't get more doctor protects, I can't imagine what the other townies were doing last night.

Just a note: insisting that the scum are unlikely to use rat on their kill target (and therefore my claim is implausible), is very scummy

If you're resigned to die and self-vote, maybe it is time to annouce your cards to give us actual hard facts to evaluate your alignment.

My card choices will tell you nothing about my alignment. Remember Budja's.

[ortolan]

What if the person above you did not pass you a doctor. Now they know all the cards you could possibly have, an extremely anti town position.

No, they go from knowing one and a half of your cards; to knowing two and a half. They can't even be sure what card you

or

the person after you will use that night (and the next night you get new cards anyway). The logic here sucks I'm sorry.

[ortolan]

Um, in your card choices that depends firstly on whether you get to choose between a doctor and a sanctuary to begin with, and secondly whether you predict yourself to be one of the most likely pro-town players and most likely to get night-killed. Doctor cards are also substantially more versatile than sanctuary cards if you need to choose between the two.

[ortolan]

That's true in a way, but it might justify your priority to protect CTD rather than use some other cards in your hand. In your case, it may be more informative than Budja.

The only card I would have rather had last night, was a plague card to use on you (it should be obvious I don't have one due to my earlier rhetoric that using a plague card after night 1 is anti-town). Otherwise protective cards were optimal. It just so happened I'm so good I used it on the right person, but the scum used a rat card and apparently everyone else was busy plaguing townies.

[ortolan]

IF THEY PASSED YOU A 1/2 COP, 1/4 NIGHTKILL, AND RAT THAN THEY KNOW YOU ARE WIDE OPEN TO BEING KILLED TONIGHT. This is what I'm trying to get at.

They didn't pass me those cards though Plus, be honest here, do you think if I wasn't lynched today there's

any

chance of scum night-killing me? Keep trying to establish a scenario where my claim might conceivably have a 1% chance of hurting me, you may come up with one eventually.

[ortolan]

DGB, however, was consistent in saying that Budja is a townie.

Yes, and DGB is consistently anti-busing. The connection isn't too hard to see. On this point I still can't see how I can be portrayed as more scummy than DGB for behaviour on Budja

Re: charter, no-one was going to quicklynch him. I would not defer my vote to a suboptimal target unless it was deadline. Playing otherwise is actually likely to have very bad consequences (imagine me trying to explain why I switched votes to someone who I suspect less than someone else, before deadline).

[ortolan]

@Ort-
Kinetic isn't the person above you. Budja was and he is dead now and we know he is scum.

My bad. Scum do know (2.5/3) of my original cards (they don't know which of two I passed and which I kept). It's not gonna help them though

[ortolan]

Unvote

[ortolan]

If those are his cards, then he WOULD have probably used doctor first. It makes sense since scum would be most likely to use plagues in night 1 and so if scum were limited on rats, then the rats were more likely to come out on night 2 than night 1.

The main thing is there is no reason to use apothecary before night 2. But yes, your reasoning in this post was pretty much all correct and impressive.

[ortolan]

I explained that I was 100% sure of DGB, and 60% sure of Budja. Assuming I am telling the truth, that is perfectly consistent with my actions.

[ortolan]

explain the above please AceMarksman. Do you think I am scum?

[ortolan]

There has been trend recently where

gaggles of stubborn players start ganging up and tunelling on players and rendering these players totally ineffective at scum hunters.

The players that are thus targeted become cornered into defensive positions all game to the detriment of the town.

In order for us to pick the best lynch candidates, we should be open minded and make fair cases. Part of this is pointing out to you that self-voting is not a scumtell. Everything else against ortolan remains one big scumtell. But again, in case I'm wrong, I want to make sure he has enough comfort zone to be effective as a townie between now and the time he dies. I decided to improve my playstyle in this direction a couple of days ago in reaction to what I perceive to be game-impoverishing trends.

QFT (applies to this game, to me in fact). Don't want to reference ongoing games, but I will say I

never

vote people for personal reasons. It's either because I genuinely think they are scum; or because I am scum myself.

[ortolan]

Agree with 1012 by Kinetic, I've lost some motivation this game I must admit (suddenly having a totally unexpected wagon form on me at the start of the day may have contributed to this).

Kinetic- I would not choose either of you or zwet because I find neither of you particularly scummy.

I know you're renowned for your scumplay, and your choice to plague CTD was pretty damn stupid if you're town and have been reading the game. It also coincided with me claiming the scum used a rat, so may have been an attempt to mask your action of using a rat by claiming a different, unconfirmable action.

That said, that's all I have on you.

When I re-read/skimmed day one a few days ago I must admit I still find AceMarksman very scummy, even scummier than his scummy meta would suggest.

There are however, some things I still cannot reconcile with DGB being town.

I know she (and I) think zwet is easy to read. His scumtells are obvious. She has expressly stated this in the past. I have not picked up on any of these this game, yet she has voted for him and appears willing to lynch him. This is scummy.

Her opinions on Budja also come across as disingenuous.

Despite your uber scummy actions, there was something in your tone that sounded town. Though I reckon Budja had me completely fooled, tone-wise. So maybe I should not let players pull at my heartstrings, it's not that trustworthy.

This sort of tone doesn't sound genuine coming from DGB. "Budja had me completely fooled".

Going back

...Anyone accusing me of trying to stop Budja's lynch should take a long hard look at 696.

I want you DEAD DEAD DEAD. All three of you.

The cavalier way you ignore Budja's totally townie card choices has just given you away.

Even at the time that just came across as unconvincing.

Also, DGB, what is your reason for suspecting me exactly? You claim I was taking votes away from someone who you

yourself

said was town?

456, which first set me off on her, is good to revisit. If you look at it,

none

of the reasons she clears Budja with are actually good ones. She refers to this:

If scum didn't plan for a mass-claim or similar in such a game then they are fools/newbies IMO.

However, I do acknowledge that Kast way over-analysed the situation and have weakened the power of a mass-claim. I am unsure if he realises this or was just trying to be helpful.

Maybe a partial claim could work. Perhaps tracking only the plague cards.

as giving Budja a townpoint. Apparently it is pro-town simply to say "hehe Kast weakened the power of a mass-claim", and then say we should claim plague cards, which is just...blatantly anti-town.

Budja's #292, very townie!
1 townpoint Budja

Please read 292 and tell me if you agree with DGB's conclusion here. What is so pro-town about this post????

Budja's #343 is SUPER town.
1 townpoint Budja

Again, why? He says someone who has a scummy meta (Ace), but is particularly scummy this game, is an easy target. None of DGB's dishing out of townpoints to Budja have good reasons behind them.

charter *****
ABR *****
Ace $$$*******
CTD $$*
Kast $$*
ortolan $**
Kinetic $$
Budja $$$
zwet $$$$$$

look at this and compare it to current events. CTD, the scum's nightkill, was her

THIRD SCUMMIEST

(bad read????). Budja, her

SECOND MOST TOWNIE

, was scum (bad read????). Her

MOST TOWNIE

(zwet), her

THIRD MOST TOWNIE

(Kinetic), and her

FOURTH MOST TOWNIE[

(me), have jumped to be her

THREE TOP SUSPECTS

today. She is apparently certain ABR is scum (just because he replaced out when she joined). There is absolutely nothing even

REMOTELY PLAUSIBLE

about this list. She has completely contradicted it in every aspect of her play since.

Kast comes up with some impressive insights but has a penchant for tunneling down wierd tangents.

It seems like ortolan is trying to WIFOM us into thinking that if we lynch him and he's town, then we should lynch DGB tomorrow because he's definite scum. The further WIFOM comes from the fact that this may be a scum tactic to tyr and get us to mislynch DGB. IMO, saying "lynch me then x" only works if there are counterclaims to certain roles...

unvote, vote ortolan

If you do turn up town, DGB is not necessarily tomorrow's lynch. There IS the possibility that you could be incorrect town.

Regardless, I still think Kinetic is rather scummy.

...and ac1983fan is still being scummy. However when I was re-reading for DGB I noticed posts 559-560 which honestly make him look a lot less scummy (votes Budja, says Ace is scummy). That coupled with the prior post 555 where he actually expresses suspicion of charter and Kinetic (but then goes on to vote Budja) seems to me to be a very townie thought process.

I have to assume Rishi is town because I don't think she'd point out the obvious fact the wagon on me lacks logic if she were scum.

I also guess I have to assume charter is town considering the role pm stuff and him getting on Budja's case so early (although the confidence he displayed in Budja from an early stage is a bit disconcerting).

It is literally inconceivable that DGB is not scum. Ignore this at your peril. Her partner is either AceMarksman or zEEnon...more than likely AceMarksman.

Forcing a dilemma of lynching me/zwet/Kinetic today is actually the worst possible outcome for this town.

[ortolan]

oh, I meant to look at Ace's reasons for voting Budja, also, I might do that later.

[ortolan]

You don't have enough data to say that.

I recall two completed games with you- Election Mafia, and Suzumiya Haruhi. In the first I thought you were town when you were SK, and in the second I was SK and didn't try to get you lynched.

I will also make the point that in every game I have declared you obv-scum, you have done the same to me.

The fact you use appeal to emotion instead of addressing the extremely, extremely valid case I have that your play this games makes absolutely no sense as town doesn't help.

[ortolan]

...still no...vote, ortolan...?

Well done Looker...do you have anything to contribute to the game beyond pointing out the obvious fact that I don't have a vote out (despite being very clear in who I think is scum) or are you aiming for the very spurious honour of being even less useful than your predecessor?

Instead of responding to my case or explaining why zwet is obv-scum (contrary to his meta) DGB thinks she can totally ignore it because she can see how totally incompetent the town is and knows she can get away with it. Instead she provides a two-line reply saying "hehe I'm obv-town".

@ 1023 your hesitance to lynch DGB even if I flip town is anti-town, because she is scum. I however don't think you are scum at this stage.

Kinetic is about equal third for scum along with zEEnon. If he gets lynched and flips town though then I can just see the lined up lynches of me then zwet and nary an intelligent townie to stop them. Deary me.

[ortolan]

Why is zwet scummy DGB?

Vote: ortolan

zwet is not scum. Stop screwing around and lynch DGB after me.

[ortolan]

zwet, post more

[ortolan]

DGB, is zwet committing any of your classic zwet scumtells that I know you have?

Why are your current suspects so amazingly deviant from your original suspicions list, and how do you explain your misreads on CTD and Budja?

[ortolan]

Booring.

Just lynch me already.

[ortolan]

If you are a townie, there is no need to be so negative/doomed/apathetic. I can see scum being upset and apathetic if they think they're about to lose, but I don't see it at all reasonable for townies to be feeling that way.

I know who the scum is and I know they're unlikely to ever be lynched. It doesn't matter how many lynches in hand you've got.

[ortolan]

How exactly is my play indicative of "scum having given up"?

If DGB was actually town she would have given satisfactory answers to my case in 1019 rather than two one-liners which don't say anything, then we could have gotten on with finding the real scum.

and zwet being completely useless isn't a scum-tell for him I'm afraid.

Rishi, what do you think of my case on DGB as expressed in 1019?

Kast, what do you think of my case on DGB as expressed in 1019?

AceMarksman, what do you think of my case on DGB as expressed in 1019?

charter, what do you think of my case on DGB as expressed in 1019?

zwet, what do you think of my case on DGB as expressed in 1019?

ac1983fan, what do you think of my case on DGB as expressed in 1019?

Kinetic, what do you think of my case on DGB as expressed in 1019?

Looker, what do you think of my case on DGB as expressed in 1019?

If anything my flip should educate you that using crappy scum-tells e.g. in situation Person A opposed a wagon of scum repeatedly, Person B acknowledged said person was scummy, but preferred to lynch Person A because they were scummier, the correct conclusion is in fact

not

that Person B is scummier than Person A. You had to learn this eventually, but hopefully it will stick based on this game.

And my self-vote was in fact

not

anti-town in this instance either, because I anticipated the scum simply getting a townie lynched then returning to the wagon started by vacant townies the next day (which places you in LYOL, as opposed to lynching me, which merely places you in penultimate LYOL).

[ortolan]

I'm glad out of this game

It's impossible to tell scum from town when you have players like ac1983fan posting the above (haha ort's my fourth scummiest player but I'll hammer him), charter flip-flopping his opinion from me to DGB to Rishi to Kinetic, zwet being zwet, Kinetic using plague bizarrely, Rishi not giving us enough information to determine her alignment, Looker replacing someone who made a scummy comment and continuing to be lurking scum, AceMarksman dropping more scumtells than a whole mafia team and DGB...being scummy.

Too much anti-town play this game.

[ortolan]

Ort, shut the fuck up about blaming anyone else (assuming you are town). You played so horridly, you have no one but yourself to blame. There is no way you can justify voting yourself, it is just piss poor play. No exceptions.

Catching two scum day one and doc protecting the night-kill victim then getting tunneled on by shit logic (outside of my control) is bad play how exactly?

[ortolan]

ouch. I did not see that scum-team coming. I was very very very convinced DGB was scum the whole game. For reference as I tried to make clear at the time self-voting was not intended as an anti-town move because I thought DGB was trying to line up the lynches of myself and zwet and wished to put a stop to that. I would never have expected her to attack zwet like that as town and the fact she so stereotypically defended Budja up until his death looked like a ploy to be "too scummy to be scummy". I think just with the player-list and who exactly constituted the mafia this game the town was doomed to fail. Kast's effort in those walls of text paid off

I didn't think Kinetic, ac1983fan or zwet were scum but still probably would have gone with DGB-AceMarksman for the scumteam rather than who they actually were so congrats to the scum.

Also, the positioning of the scum at the end of the day one wagon was very good for them. Both of them were voting their scumbuddy leaving four townies on someone else's wagon. Also, Kast was second on the wagon, as early as 373 which is some extremely well-done busing.

[ortolan]

Also I drew an apoth card and would have used it on myself night 2 but was sadly lynched.

I do stand by what I said about using plagues after night one being very anti-town, obviously

[ortolan]

@Ort-
You tunneled on DGB which made it a lot easier. But I was worried about you so I tried to lay seeds then get others to jump at them.

Yer looking back at day 2 I kind of found there were some disconnects in your logic. Of course I thought you were town so I was trying to reason with you (I think I made some comment about you tunneling down wierd tangents). To be honest you probably didn't need to attack me at all (I think that was largely what I was critical of), you would have been better off just letting the townies fight amongst themselves.