***Post 3/6***
Kinetic wrote:It's an AMAZINGLY scummy set of cards, looking at it in the stupid way that Kast has.
-Please don't twist things or make things up. I will grant that you possibly confused
Charter's post for one of mine.
I did not say anything about the scumminess of picking plague or rat cards. I did not say or imply that Pick#3 indicates affiliation. Also, I specifically stated that I don't think we will immediately find scum after mass claiming.
-I said that early drafting ¼ NKs is pretty scummy. If I find that you picked a 1/4 NK on Draft #1-Pick #1 OR that you pick a 1/4 NK on Draft #2-Pickt #1, you will have my vote.
My reasons are below, short of it is that we can stop or limit scum's ability to enact a bonus NK. Townies individually grabbing 1/4 NK's fails to effectively prevent a scum bonus NK. Kinetic's pick list practically guarantees one bonus NK, allows for two bonus NKs, AND protects scum from being caught in either possibility.
Kinetic wrote:First, I wanted a mass claim because I knew most of the town might not realize the important of some cards.
-You did not reliably assess the values of cards.
Your drafting lists are a joke and, if followed, provide excuses for scum to draft their most ideal cards. I find it extremely ironic that you blatantly provide scum with explanations for ANY and EVERY pick they make, while simultaneously calling me scummy for allegedly providing ONE explanation for ONE specific pick.
Kinetic wrote:Such as: If you pass a 1/4 NK, you are a COMPLETE AND UTTER ANTI-TOWN IDIOT. Phew. Got that off my chest. Scum can only get a total of 3 1/4s from their own draw. Thus in order for them to NEVER get an additional NK from those cards all town has to do is choose cards defensively first.
-Too bad you weren't bright enough to consider that one player passing a 1/4 NK, indicates that other players may follow similar reasoning and also pass 1/4 NK cards.
There is an extremely small chance that multiple townies passed 1/4 NK's to scum and the scum were stupid enough to grab all the 1/4 NK cards passed to them; scum would need 5 cards to achieve 2 bonus kills. The chance of townies drawing 5 or more NK cards is 14.48%. This situation would also require that no two scum are adjacent in picking order AND at least two scum have two or more townies passing cards to them. It also strongly indicates that those players are scum (this was my point in the initial post).
-Fortunately, Kinetic's doomsaying notwithstanding, we can take measures to limit scum to 1 bonus NK. As long as nobody drafted two 1/4 NK cards this round (it looks like Kinetic is the only one "special" enough to attempt that), then we can ALSO force them to choose between either not getting ANY bonus NK OR guaranteeing capture of at least 1 scum by Draft #3 (which still limits them to only one ¼ NK).
Also, I confirm that Charter passed me ABR's 1/4 NK. Charter should have Ace's 1/4 NK card. Kinetic's, despite ALREADY having a card that for throwing away, decided to draft KidIcarus' one 1/4 NK card.
This is less than ideal picking, but if we agree that all future ¼ NK cards must be either single passed OR double passed, we can limit the only double ¼ NK to one of {Charter, Kast, KidIcarus, Kinetic} (ideally we pick the single/double pass randomly and we pick which player gets the double 1/4 NK randomly OR potentially we could vote on each or use some other method). Lynching any of them by Day 2 (or if one dies on night 1) allows us to guarantee no bonus NK unless scum lie about a first pick NK card. If a player lies, he will be caught by Draft #3.
Think before you run your mouth attacking people please.
Kinetic wrote:I was passed the 1/4th NK (and the Rat), two AMAZING scum cards, and because of that I feel the person passing them to me (KidIcarus) is most likely town because of it.
-Do you also feel that KidIcarus is a “COMPLETE AND UTTER ANTI-TOWN IDIOT”?
-You fail at maintaining a consistent reference frame (you also fail at math).
Minor point first:
You essentially stated that KidIcarus is a “COMPLETE AND UTTER ANTI-TOWN IDIOT”, but also believe that his passed cards reflect his affiliation; this implicitly states that a “COMPLETE AND UTTER ANTI-TOWN IDIOT” will follow a consistent and predictable set of behavior. Ignoring the double negative in your insult
(you are welcome to claim the double negative is intentional; I will not believe that)
, it is illogical to assume that a “COMPLETE AND UTTER ANTI-TOWN IDIOT” would conform to any predictable set of behavior. Your assumption about KidIcarus' affiliation admits an assumption of some level of “non-idiocy”.
More relevant point:
You demonstrate a double standard; one which you apply to your card picks, and another which you use to evaluate KidIcarus' picks.
Another relevant point:
For completeness, I will look at this situation from the two extremes, an in-between view, and what I think is a likely view. This is analysis for Draft #1 only (some portions may apply to Draft #2 or #3, but none are presented as doing so or necessary to do so for this purpose). Here are the states: {DEFENSIVE DRAFT
(aka Kinetic's fantasy land)
, UTILITY DRAFT, MIXED DRAFT, MY VIEW
(aka. Kast's fantasy land)
}
(1)Kinetic's Fantasy Land:
-Assumes that townies will defensively draft both cards when possible
-Assumes that scum will utility draft both cards when possible
(implicit)
-Assumes that all players prioritize picking: Plague, Rat, ¼ NK
(2)Utility:
-Assumes that all players will utility draft both cards when possible
-Unordered townie pick list: {Apothecary, ½ Cop, Doc, Double, Mimic, Sanctuary}
-Unordered scum pick list: Plague, Rat, ¼ NK
(3)Mixed:
-Assumes that all players will defensively draft one card and utility draft one card when possible
-Ordered and unordered pick lists are too subjective to list for this case
-After defensively drafting one card, a player will utility draft the next card and vice versa
(4)Kast's Fantasy Land:
-Assumes that all players will defensively draft one card and utility draft one card when possible
-There are no picks which are sure fire identifications of scum
-Ordered personal pick list: Plague, ½ Cop, Apothecary, Sanctuary, Doctor, Rat, Double, Mimic, ¼ NK
-Ordered estimated scum pick list (somewhat subjective and depends on what teammates receive): Plague, ¼ NK, Rat/Apothecary, Mimic, ½ Cop, Double, Doctor, Sanctuary
Draft #1-Pick #1, KidIcarus passed you Mimic and 1/4 NK. He could have kept one of 7 potential cards.
(1) Only 2 out of the 7 remaining cards fit this reference frame's townie profile. They both also fit the scum profile. Not conclusive about affiliation.
(2) Assuming that all townie cards are equivalent allows a 71.43% indication that KidIcarus is town. If an objective ordered list can be made OR an ordered list can be accepted for sake of argument AND the Double is not at the bottom of that list, then the chance drops.
(3) Assuming that all cards are equivalently valued in this reference frame's townie profile, at least 2 of the cards also fit the scum profile. There is at most a 71.43% indication that KidIcarus is town.
(4) There are 6 cards that fit the townie profile, but 1 of them also fits the scum profile. This also allows a base 71.43% indication that KidIcarus is town. Allowing for intelligent scum who may pick cards to confuse the town decreases this confidence and arguably reduces the determination to a WiFoM case.
Draft #1, Pick #2, Kidicarus passed Rat. There are 8 potential cards that he may have kept.
(1) Assuming that all three "scum" cards are equivalently valued, he still only has 2 positive matches. Scum would also take these cards. Inconclusive about affiliation.
(2) There are 6 townie cards and no overlap with scum cards. This gives a 75% indication that KidIcarus is a townie.
(3) Using same assumption as above, all 8 cards are reasonable for townies, but 2 overlap with scum. This also gives 75%
(4) There are 5 townie cards that beat Rat, and 1 overlap with scum. 50% indication that KidIcarus is a townie.
Multiplying out chances from both picks gives (2) and (3) the highest chances of indicating KidIcarus' affiliation. Neither is close to 90%.
Kinetic wrote:I chose the 1/4th kill so I could burn it and scum cannot use it.
That seems reasonable. If you picked the mimic, you would only be able to mimic the plague or whatever you receive in pick #3. Mimic on plague is not necessarily terrible for a townie to play, but it is less ideal than protecting, investigating, or immunizing, AND it may make you appear more suspicious.
Also, there is a greater chance that the cards being passed to you are coming from a townie. Intuitively, this implies that you will be less likely to get a town utility card.
Kinetic wrote:I chose plague for the same reason. I drew Plague, Mimic and Apothacary. I could have taken Apoth, used it on myself, and been immune to plague all game. Instead, I took the plague and made sure no one else could use it.
Agree with this decision. I would add reasoning that plague is a utility town card (it is playable).
Kinetic wrote:My second set was Mimic/ 1/4th NK. Seriously, I could have pulled a Plague/Mimic combo off the first two night phases if I was scum. I chose the NK to both prevent scum from getting it (in case the person after me was scum) and to burn it.
Your first reason demonstrates a failure to think through the NK situation.
As explained above, it is extremely unlikely that there will be enough cards in the first round to give scum more than one bonus NK. In the event that there are enough cards, it will be very obvious who the scum are. It is also extremely unlikely that we will prevent scum from ever having any 1/4 NK cards passed to them, but we can adopt a policy that will limit scum to at most 1 bonus NK AND catch at least one scum (and potentially all 3, though that would mean a town loss) on Draft #3.
Kinetic wrote:My third card was Rat. Which, is worst than 1/4th NK, and will most likely be my discarded card.
There is no reason to play the Rat. There is no possible way for any townies to NK scum within the first two nights. At best, you waste a night cycle, at worst you allow scum to NK a townie through his protection. This should not be most likely. This should be definite.
Kinetic wrote:I supported mass claim because I wanted to look at exactly what people drew and I wanted them to explain WHY they drew such cards. The fact is Kast FUCKED a lot of that up by explaining PERFECT SCUM STRATEGY to the scum and the town.
Bullshit. I provided a list of pros and cons and provided comprehensive reasons for why I believed the more complicated situations. There was little to no talk about scum strategy, let alone perfect scum strategy. There are two levels to this accusation, both of which fail.
-First, the claim that my posts will help scum avoid suspicion when claiming which cards they drew, picked, and were passed. Specifically, I have been charged with letting them realize that they could lie if they picked specific, undesirable cards. For this, the only possible effect that anything I said could have is on whether scum decide to lie about the first pick, and what they decide to say in that lie. I addressed this first pick lie issues from both sides (telling the truth AND lying)after charter mentioned scum lying. I showed that neither is a "good" solution for scum; both result at worst in more attention on the scum player and at best can directly catch scum in a lie. There is no clear best choice for them.
-Second, the claim that my posts will help scum give unsuspicious reasons for the two picks. I made two statements about specific cards. One statement referenced Draft #1-Pick#1, Draft #1-Pick#2, and Draft #2-Pick #1, and specified that if we see players using these picks to grab NKs, then they are probably scum. If scum pick NKs on any first pick, we cannot tell until Draft #3 when we directly catch them. However, they cannot lie about Pick#2, and will have to give a good reason for grabbing that card. I have not provided them with any pro-town reasons for doing this. Kinetic HAS.
The other statement specified that a player who passes BOTH sanctuary AND apothecary is suspicious. There are some cards that I would pick over both of those, but not many. I didn't name which cards and there are obviously difference in opinion between multiple players. This could not help them explain their first pick even if they did pass BOTH sanctuary AND apothecary, because I did not provide any reasons to explain card picks in preference to Sanctuary or Apothecary. I didn't even name the cards that I believe are better picks. Now, Kinetic has attempted to share his thoughts with scum.
Kinetic wrote:I wanted to scum hunt. I knew everything he stated already, but I was keeping it to myself so that I could see if anyone slipped and help use that to determine their alignment.
You can still scum hunt. You obviously did not know everything I stated already. You obviously did not agree with everything I stated already. It would suck enormously if we proceeded blindly with a mass card claim, then allowed scum to invent justifications for finding specific player choices scummy after the fact.
Kinetic wrote:Was it full-proof, absolutely going to catch every scum. No, I never said it was.
Charter directly claimed that it would catch
at least one scum immediately. I acknowledge that you did not make that direct claim.
Slicey said he does not see it helping to catch scum. You replied that it
has multiple ways to catch scum.
Dropping the word "help" implies actually catching scum as opposed to potentially catching scum. It is possible that you could not understand the distinction (unlikely given charter's strong player assessmentand you pointed out your many awards), are just careless (quite possible), intentionally used misleading language to bolster support for your plan. Those are major ones, there are probably others.
Kinetic wrote:Could it have? Yes.
Will it now? No.
Mass card claiming was unlikely to immediately catch scum and remains unlikely to immediately catch scum. It still can and might.
Kinetic wrote:Also, the main reason I wanted mass claim was so that people were forced to stick with the claim in the mid-late game when people were drawing the last of their cards. If no one claimed their plague and all of a sudden 3 plague victims died, that would be quite suspicious.
This supports MY point. This is unaffected by my posts.
Kinetic wrote:The fact remains, Kast completely blew it. Completely.
BS. Try making a valid and coherent argument instead relying solely on emotional appeals and name calling.
Kinetic wrote:He did EXACTLY what scum should do, and he warned his scum buddies to what might happen.
Pics or it didn't happen.
Kinetic wrote:I still want to go forth with the Mass Claim so that I can tack people to their claims for later, but I doubt it will catch any scum now. Once that is done, I plan I pushing for Kast's lynch.
He is either scum or an incredibly idiotic townie. Either way, I don't mind lynching him to find out which at this point.
No reason to not vote me if that is the case.