Mini #717 - Alpha Centauri Smalltown (Game Over!)

[Raging Rabbit]

Hello there. I appear to be a female tracker with a creepy haircut and a weird green thingy on my eye. Will get to reading shortly.

[Raging Rabbit]

I'm at the start of page 6. Usually when a wagon builds up this quick it's a town wagon with some scum on it. Occam's self vote is a null tell. His argument with Piper reads like the all too familiar battle of two pissed off townies. Cephrir's shamless wagoning is somewhat scummy. Other than that, nothing too significant.

Will finish reading soonish, probably tommorow.

[Raging Rabbit]

Some point as I go along, starting with a recap on page 5:

Ceph's 101 is scummy, his excuse for wagoning isn't very believable and voting Oman for questioning it is bad OMGUSy play.

Occam being afraid of BP is possible as both town and scum, having a potential opponent that can't be night killed makes that opponent seem like a better lynch - he isn't, obviously, but I don't see much wrong with using it as a basis for a semi random vote. It did spark discussion. Disagree about BP being useless to the town, though - a good scumhunter that won't be lynched and can't get NK'd is a huge esset.

DP and Occam's argument is getting ridiculous around 121. I still think it's the kind that usually evolves between two townies.

Farside's 125 - odd. Did she not read the first page?

137 - unconving attack by farside.

140 - charter raises some good points against farside.

charter's still being convincing at 151, surprisingly I don't find him scummy at all thus far.

158 - self voting isn't always anti town, it's usually less than brillilant though. I've seen townies do it lots of times.

Monkeyman's 166 - wow, total crap logic. I see newibe scum trying to line up two mislynches. I wonder why he didn't pick up immediate votes for that, though he did get called up on being scummy.

176 - true, self-voting is very different from self hammering.

182 - monkeyman's still really scummy, subtly distancing himself from earlier BS statement.

183 - farside making a bad argument. why would scum pull a quickhammer d1? It's flat out stupid. If scum shouldn't worry about L-1 because "people talk themselves to death", town shouldn't either.

Occam's farside case in 187 is decent, while farside seems to just be going for winning a theory debate, especially in 194, which is a comfortable route for scum to take. She later suceeds in making the entire debate revolve around a theory disagreement - the scummy thing she did here is vote someone for disagreeing with her on this.

193 - ceph possibly scum with farside.

Farside abandons her case out of thin air, and votes Crazy for being in the game and quiet in 214. Probably realized she was making herself look bad and needed to move attention elsewhere.

charter acting really pissed off in 219 and seems overly willing to end the day, but what he says is still mostly right. Total QFT on 121, too.

ceph contemplating whether to bus farside in 224.

226 - nice summary of farside's play

229 by Oman is generally a very good post. Also made me reread monkeyman's early play that I kinda missed in my earlier readthrough, actually calling for Occam's lynch just for finding something he did dumb is way scummy.

234 by gremwell is almost as bad as monkey's earlier suggestion to auto-lynch both. Something in his phrasing makes it feel more misguided than scummy, though. It's somewhat scummy that he doesn't bother saying anything else or providing opinions.

237 by occam - what do you mean, "isn't gonna vitalize this game"? She seems to be your best suspect and a quite a few others find her scummy as well.

240 by monkeyman - ignoring the actual question, taking the obvious mistake Oman already corrected as given.

ML seems to be flying below the radar.

243 - I can understand waiting for more people to chime in if Gremwell honestly thinks her plan has value. Why is monkeyman attacking him rather than support him here, since his own suggestion regarding ceph and Occam was pretty close to Gremwell's? He's just going for as many throats as possible.

246 - yeah, Emp is being very quiet here compared to open 94.

252 - yep. MM is so totally scum. His later posts continue looking like he's scrambling for someone to explain why his town act failed.

259 CD really hasn't said anything thus far.

Gremwell's 261 - a big ???. I've no idea how he expected this trap to work or what in farside and occam's reactions made him decide both are likely townies. Scum is likely to be less willing to commit a 1-1 trade, if anything.

270 - Cephrir now subtly defending MM.

285 by Oman - MM is totally transparant. Almost everything he says further indicates he's scum. Why does that make you prefer lynching Gremwell? What does "more dangerous" mean, other than "not as scummy"?

289 by charter - Well, Gremwell isn't scumhunting and made up a retarted plan "to get reactions". That can still be paseed out as simply questionable play. MM also isn't scumhunting, tried to string up Occam and Ceph in a similar way, than attacked Gremwell for suggesting a variant of his own plan regarding Occam and Farside, then went overboard at the slightest sign of suspicion because of the apparant failure of his town act, which he keeps trying to reaffirm by stating how everything he did is obviously pro town and such. Also intentionally misinterperted and now ignores Oman's question. Since Gremwell also has a better role, I don't see why you'd rather lynch her actually.

291 - politician is totally useless for town and kinda good for scum. It is only really effective at LYLO, but an auto win at LYLO isn't half bad, plus under certain situations it would work to his benefit to hammer town ever outside LYLO.

MM's 295 - huh? How is undervaluing a role even remotely a scumtell, and since when is scumhunting a matter of pure math?

297 - continuing this BS argument. I'd say he's scumpartners with Gremwell, but I'd expect MM to flat out defend him rather than FoS him earlier if that was the case.

DP's 300 is decent, though I disagree with his conclusion.

305 - farside moving vote to MM for obvious reasons. Where did the case on farside go? Charter did some questioning earlier I thought was pretty good and didn't get a satisfactory answer iirc.

charter's 307 - so Gremwell is more suspicious than the uber scummy MM and farside who you "can't see any way she isn't scum"?

farside's 309 - "make my own thoughts as scum" - Freudian slip?

320 by Occam - I don't see the need for a PBPA here, as usual you end up mostly summraizing his actions rather than making a formed case. I maintain that MM is way scummier.

Farside's 327 - reading an entire game requires me to set aside a lot of time, unlike posting short updates on specific matters. Took me a while to find that time. I still think you just figured Crazy/me a comfortable target and good means to move your vote away from Occam.

MM's 335 - yeah there's an inconsistency, he expressed suspicion of Gremwell but also said he'd be "glad to vote for Gremwall if necessary for a lynch, but certainly not as a threat".

Oman's 344 - interesting theory, though Ceph is a likelier partner imo.


In conclusion, MM is totally scum, farside is very scummy as well and Ceph would make a good partner for both. Gremwell's acting odd but his wagon is far inferior. Everyone else are way behind, with charter and Oman in particurlar being likely town.

Vote MonekyMan

.

[Raging Rabbit]

RR: I answer charters questions. If there is a question I missed please point out which question it is.

I really don't feel like investing more time on cheking right now, so where did you answer them?

I noticed you missed the fact Occam did the same thing a post ahead of me and I was commenting back my thoughts on scum.

Yeah, only without that possible slip. How is that relevant?

I find scum lurk and scum lurk. It's easy to stay out of the spotlight when you don't say anything. I didn't like that Crazy was posting elsewhere then disappeared. I ddint' care for you coming in and then not posting here but posting elsewhere when the person who you replaced was MIA.

I already explained why I didn't, you seem comfortable ignoring that to continue attacking Crazy/me for lurking.

[Raging Rabbit]

You just did the f@#ing reread and accused me of not answering questions so why don't you do the search. F@#ing lazy people.

I just spent like two hours going through the thread, and don't recall a satisfactory answer to charter's case. I don't feel like rechecking right now, I spent enough time reading this and do have a life outside of this game. I don't appreciate your tone.

[Raging Rabbit]

RR: More dangerous means able to manipulate the town to its disadvantage if scum. As you say there, MM is completely transparent, he's hardly going to produce a townie-wagon that we all pile onto. On the other hand, Gremwell seems like the deceitful type

We shouldn't lynch people based on how crafty they are, but based on whether or not we think they're scum.

The case against me is really weak. Any townie should see that. Any time anyone says I'm scummy, they fail to actually say the reasons I am scum. And the only reason people have to say I am scummy, those actions are totally reasonable and NOT scummy.

Funny, I just gave a whole lot of reasons why you're scummy. And if your only defense is "NOT!", well, don't expect to sweep anyone of his feet.

[Raging Rabbit]

And merry Christmas/happy Chanukah, people!

[Raging Rabbit]

Funny, I just gave a whole lot of reasons why you're scummy. And if your only defense is "NOT!", well, don't expect to sweep anyone of his feet.

So far, the two reasons I have heard that I am scummy is my reaction to being called scum, which was completely reasonable considering a reason for the vote was not given at the time, and switching my vote, which I have explained fully. So, I don't see either reason as a good reason.

I'd advise you to read the game, then. You can start with this:

289 by charter - Well, Gremwell isn't scumhunting and made up a retarted plan "to get reactions". That can still be paseed out as simply questionable play. MM also isn't scumhunting, tried to string up Occam and Ceph in a similar way, than attacked Gremwell for suggesting a variant of his own plan regarding Occam and Farside, then went overboard at the slightest sign of suspicion because of the apparant failure of his town act, which he keeps trying to reaffirm by stating how everything he did is obviously pro town and such. Also intentionally misinterperted and now ignores Oman's question. Since Gremwell also has a better role, I don't see why you'd rather lynch her actually.

[Raging Rabbit]

MM's totally strawmanning, ignoring both parts of ML's attack and the

entriety

of my own.

MM, some questions for you, to force a proper reply this time around:

1. The main reason Gremwell is suspected is for trying to line up kills on farside and occam, creating a false dillema stating one of them has to be guilty. In 166, you did the very same thing, only a bit more subtly, with Ceph instead of Farside and a suggested sencond lynching instead of overnight vigging. Since the core of the idea is the same, what exactly in Gremwell's play do you find scummy?

2.

My policy is not to change my vote unless I think the new person I'm voting for is more scummy than the person I'm currently voting.

And yet you moved your vote to Gremwell, despite explicitly saying you don't find him scummier than Occam, and even in fact that you'll be "glad to vote him if necassary for a lynch,

but certainly not as a threat

". How is this not a contradiction?

3. In his big summary post, Oman asked you:

why would you vote someone you thought was stupid over someone you thought was town?

Which is obviously not a logical question. This was quickly pointed out by empking, and corrected:

No Empking, not correct.

Correction:

Monkeyman

Why would you vote someone you thought was stupid over someone you thought was scum?

This form is both the obvious way the question was meant to be taken, and appears in bold like two posts below it. Still, you chose to reply:

Only scum would vote someone they thought was town.

FOS: Oman

It was pointed out multiple times that you chose to answer what is clearly not the right form of the question, and yet you still chose to ignore it. Why? Also, why would you vote someone you thought was stupid over someone you thought was scum?

4. How does doing two unrelated things you don't like create a "pattern"? Is comitting two scumtells always more indicative than comitting a single one, regardless of how strong they are?

5. If selfvoting is equally unwise for town and scum, how is it a scumtell?

6. Are you suspicious of Occam for undervalueing BP's power in the hands of scum (if yes, explain why this is a scumtell), voting early in the game for a weak basis (if yes, explain why this is a towntell), or both (explain both)?

Note that I'm not going into the matter of your initial reaction to being suspected, which I think there's less point questioning you about but is definitely a strong issue.

[Raging Rabbit]

I've heard of distancing, but that guy wanted to lynch me on like page 2.

That's actually a very possible tactic, since going for your buddy's throat early d1 allows you lots of leeway to possibly take you case back later. However, I don't think MM is experienced enough to have done that, so I agree you're an unlikely partner for him. So is Grem, for that matter, because of MM's double standards concerning him which allowed a comfortable bandwagon vote. Since MM is extremely likely scum imo, I'm opposed to a Gremwell lynch.


Oh, and MM -- scumhunting involes hunting, actually going after the people you suspect, adding to the cases on them, asking them and gauging their reactions. It also involves being on a constant lookout for suspicious behavior. You seem content with just naming suspects. That's not actual scumhunting, and therefore scummy.

[Raging Rabbit]

My opinion on Gremwell changed(for the worse), and I decided attacking Occum was no longer productive. I'm entitled to change my opinion, and weigh others opinions when appropriate.

You're entitled to change opinions, but stating a

policy

of yours which then disappears into thin air is very scummy.

I was trying to point out what I saw as a freudian slip.

This is not an answer. Why ignore the actual question? Why are you

still

ignoring the actual question?

Obviously, committing one grave error is worse that commiting two minor errors, but I don't feel that Occum's errors are minor. When confronted with this issue, one has to consider the problem on a case by case basis, and in this case I felt the other players arguments were compelling, and I didn't feel my argument against Occum was being taken seriously(regardless of the merits), so I decided it best to change my vote.[/b]

Somewhat taking back your earlier satement a about a pattern here, but whatever.
Anyways, what arguments by other players against Gremwell did you find compelling?

If you are town, then you are voting for a known townie(yourself), and if you are scum, self voting is a very forward and clumsy tactic, and you are letting your clumsy play be known to the town, when you should be more subtle.

This is not an answer. How is it a scumtell, than?

Mostly I am suspicious of Occam for 1) Undervaluing townie BP and 2) Self Voting. I would have to do more research to consider the other two possible scumtells.

Also not an answer. Why is undervaluing a role scummy?

[Raging Rabbit]

Not really, one has to weigh standard policy vs the individual case.

Your treatment of said individual case flat out contradicts your claimed policy.

That is my answer. I'm sorry that you don't like it.

There are two questions followed by the sentence "that's not an answer". One of which you answered just now in an unconvincing manner, the other you haven't at all. That's not providing answers I don't like, it's flat out ignoring the questions.

If you are town, you do not vote for town(yourself). Occum voted for himself, meaning either he is scum or he has some alterior motive, and is just acting scummy. Either way, a scumtell

But you just said it's just as much of a bad play for scum to vote themselves as it is for town. How, then, is Occam doing something you consider bad play regardless of alignment indicative of him belonging to any particurlar one? In other words, anti town doesn't equal scummy.

That's the main one.

Huh? What is?
(See what I mean about not answering questions?)

This habit of yours of saying something is not an answer, when in fact you just don't like the answer, is rather annoying.

Well, your habit of taking the questions you're actually asked and either turn them into something else you have an easier time answering or just ignore them is scummy as hell.


What do you think of MM, Occam?

[Raging Rabbit]

Very hard as is, because we don't know who is scum (have almost no idea on the full scumteam and SK) we give them a lot of information. For night game to swing to the town N1 we need to get incredibly lucky.

True. Coordinating night choices will likely just make it easier for scum to screw them up.

[Raging Rabbit]

Discussing Oman's night action is couter-productive as well, I don't want him hiding behind at "town consensus" to justify his choice. He should act at his own discresion, then take responsibility for it. I think any form of night talk just makes things easier for scum at the moment.

[Raging Rabbit]

I just love how you abandoned any pretence of trying to refute the case against you, and are resorting to victimizing yourself to make you look mistreated.

[Raging Rabbit]

I'd quote my last response to you that contains tons of unanswered questions, but I don't really think it's worth bothering. Keep ignoring it as far as I'm concerned, you already clearly proved that you aren't capable of explaining your play, which makes sense because of you being scum an' all.

Could you post a short opinion on everyone else in the game?

[Raging Rabbit]

MM's reads are mostly negative, as can be expected from scum who wants to keep his options open. Two points of note are me being his most pro town read, for a bad reason - stating I've been consisntantly scumhunting, when I just replaced in - probably a blatant attempt to link us, and having Oman at neutral for being a "follower" - which I don't think he has been - which could be a way to stay noncomittal on him, indicating a possible link.


Welcome, Yos. Interested in hearing your thoughts on things before we end the day.

[Raging Rabbit]

Could you give some examples of why Oman's a "follower"?

[Raging Rabbit]

You should though, it's good for your town act. That way it'll look like you're trying to supply us with leads for later.

[Raging Rabbit]

You have a very creative way of interperting posts.

Serisouly, if you're a townie, why not supply us this info?

[Raging Rabbit]

I wouldn't expect cornered scum to have negative reads on everyone. I'd expect it to be the opposite in fact. I do agree with your two comments though.

The top two town reads are the two players who were attacking him the most recently, so he does his share of buddying up as well (even complimenting our good scumhunting, as ML pointed out, which makes no sense whatsoeveer with him as town).

I do think it's worth considering having the cop or mason target the bp tonight, though. If he's scum we lynch him, and if he's town he becomes useful to us.

There's no cop in this setup, that'd really unbalance things. The closest thing is my role, tracker, and targeting BP will either prove he's scum or that he isn't the SK or the S.C.U.M who performed the kill, which doesn't clear him. Not sure it's the best option. Having the masonier target him could lead to him getting NK'd by either faction, which would create a wall of WIFOM. Kinda hard to get a truely confirmed innocent here.

There's no point in taking questions for someone who's not open minded to your alliance. The point of questioning is to determine if someone is innocent or guilty, not to lay trap after trap until something sticks. I'll have more than enough opportunities to prove my towniness in the future.

An answer won't convince me you're innocent, but why not supply the town with more info regarding your reads? You're the most likely lynch, after all, and if you're a townie it benefits you to leave us with as many thoughts as possible. So, what makes you consider Oman a "follower"?

If you want to argue your towniness, you can always stop ignoring my original set of question.

[Raging Rabbit]

Yos, what do you think of charter's unvote immediately following Occam's selfvote?

[Raging Rabbit]

Monkey ignoring my question regarding Oman is noted.

[Raging Rabbit]

"I'll wait to see other's responses" actually fits the pattern of "it wasn't scummy, it was a gambit". Just sayin'.

I seriously don't get how anybody can

not

have MM as his top suspect right now. It's like the guy has a neon "SCUM" sign over his head in shiny red letters.

[Raging Rabbit]

Raging rabbit: Can you explain why you think MM is scum, as opposed to just making newbie mistakes? I mean, reading back at your attacks on him; one point you raised against him was a "anti-town is not the same as scummy" theory debate, and another one was "You said had a policy and then you changed it" thing, and both of those seems more like newbie behavior then scummy behavior to me. Can you explain specifically what he did that makes you think he's scum?

It's definitely more than newbie mistakes. Anti town vs. scummy isn't much a of tell for newbs, I agree, and I can even forgive not truely scumhunting, but these were never even close to being my focal point. Stronger points include:

1. Attacking Gremwell, whose main suspicious play - trying to line up a lynch and a vigging of two players in conflict, creating a false dillema that one of them has to be scum - is very similar to the play MM's suggesting in post 166. MM mentions finiding Gremwell suspicious only for waiting to gauge reactions, which conviniently ignores this issue, altough it's obivous that the center of discussion regarding Gremwell's scuminess among all other players is the original suggestion and later gambit claim regarding it. I'd expect Monkey, who if he's town has to really believe that suggestion, to question people's suspicion of Gremwell and the illegitemacy of his suggestion. Instead he comfortably ignores the subject completely and attack Grem for a sideways clause of his plan, which proves to me that MM both didn't actually believe his suggestion in 166 is in the town's best interests and that he's looking for a comfortable reason to join the biggest wagon that isn't his own.

2. He expressed a very strong suspicion of Occam, offering to quicklynch him early in the game and consistantly declaring him scum, while keeping an eye on Gremwell but proclaiming more than once that he finds Occam scummier, has a policy of not moving his vote unless he finds a more suspicious target, and will only be "glad to vote him if necassary for a lynch,

certainly not as a threat

". This then completely disappears

in his very next post

, after a vote count followed by a vote on Grem by Cephrir which makes Grem the leading wagon, with one vote more than MM's who's the obvious alternate option. This is not a "newbie mistake", this is proof of opprotunistic scum.

3. Way overreacts to every initial sign of suspicion, with many of his posts such as 250 giving off a strong "but I haven't done anything that gives away my being scum, right?!" vibe.

4. Repeatedly and intentionally ignoring questions and cases against him, or blatantly misinterperting them.

I don't recall ever being more confident of a day one lynching.

[Raging Rabbit]

I still don't get the point of not lynching someone because of their role. Role has no bearing on alignment. If you don't lynch any of the 'good' roles, you're down to about half the people in the game, which is dumb.

If both are equally scummy it's obviously slightly better to lynch the polictician, but I'd prefer Monkey's lynch even if the roles were the other way around. Seriously, how is Gremwell's bad proposition, that's bascially the only substantial thing he's done, that much scummier than MM's that's also contradicted by his reaction to Grem and is only one of many scummy things he's done?

[Raging Rabbit]

A large part of my suspicion of Grem was his repeated popping in but talking about stuff no one was interested in. I also think Gremwell more likely to be scum because I'm pretty sure everyone has said MM is scummy, but there are a few people who haven't commented on Grem hardly at all which is extremely odd.

Actually MM has some prime candidates for bussing scumpartners imo, namely Oman and empking. I don't think ignoring your partner is necassarily the most common scum move.

[Raging Rabbit]

I heard that was an anti town thing to do.

[Raging Rabbit]

I think we're better off with the popcorn method we talked about earlier. Since Occam basically volunteered his claim, he should choose the next to do so.

And I agree it makes sense to also claim if you know you got targeted by other roles (i.e masonier or inventor).

[Raging Rabbit]

Also, we should pretty much not discuss anything until the claims are done with.

[Raging Rabbit]

I think popcorn holds people accountable for more choices, and is thus slightly better than random.

[Raging Rabbit]

I still think popcorn yields better results and gives us more info. We could start with a random target if you're so paranoid about conspiracies. You could link us to the games you're talking about, but I doubt I'll have the time to read them anytime soon.

Hi CKD.

[Raging Rabbit]

Checking in. Had a post yesterday that got deleted.

Popcorn claiming it is.

[Raging Rabbit]

I tracked ortolan, who's telling the truth about targeting me. Received nothing.

Looks like the only missing bit of info is whether emp got targeted.

empking's latest posts do feel like a shaky attempt to attack DP, but I saw him make a similar bad case on farside in another game as town. Still, we should definitely keep him in mind, especially since having another suspect hammer him seems like a viable option today.

I need to reread the first day for a fresh prespective on things, totally baffled about monkey being town.

[Raging Rabbit]

The most significant thing I can glean from this is that ortolan didn't make the NK and targeted me rather than a scumbuddy (which is what a scum doctor would've probably done), so he's likely not scum. Empking didn't make the kill either if ML's telling the truth, and charter used his action on killing farside. So assuming Oman chose to redirect something rather than kill, the scum kill was made by either DP, Ceph or Occam (or, far less likely, ML). That doesn't help all that much, now that I think of it.

And yeah, we know the SK offed Oman. Vig kills have distinctive flavor.

[Raging Rabbit]

Where did he admit to having a night action, exactly?

[Raging Rabbit]

I find this post interesting too. If you take all of the claims at face value and assume the three killed last night did abasolutely nothing..then you could come up with your conclusion. I guess I am confused by the point of this post? We have three scum (2 mafia and a sk) left...most likely they are lying about their actions...ALSO, we are not sure what the three dead did.

1.) Orto, Fully claimed. Protected RR and was not targetted(chose charter to go next)
2.) charter, partially claimed. Killed farside
3.) Cephrir, fully claimed. Did nothing and was not targetted(chose occam, who has already claimed)
4.) Occam, fully claimed, did not commute and was not targetted (chose DP)
5.) DP, fully claimed, no night actions and was not targetted (chose ML)
6.) ML, fully claimed, block Emp and was not targetted (chose RR)
7.) RR, fully claimed, tracked "confirms that Orto protected RR" and was not targetted.

other claims out of popcorn order:
Empking, fully claimed claimed, no night action and was not targeted.

I know that neither me nor ortolan made the kil. charter didn't because he vigged farside. Emp didn't unless ML is lying or unless ML's block was tampered with. That leaves Ceph, Occam, DP, as our most likely killers, with Emp or ML being less likely possibilities.
The three dead guys don't influence this that much - farside couldn't, Oman and Yos may have only if they targeted ML - which makes no sense for Yos, and is possible for Oman - so Emp is a bit more likely, but still not as much as the other three.
That doesn't tell me all that much, and tells the rest of you less since you less since you don't know I'm innocent, but since you questioned the analysis itself...

Also, why would you automatically assume scum lied about their actions? They may want to tell the truth in order to look pro town and in case I tracked them. The SK has no reason to lie whatsoever.

1) orto didn't make the S.C.U.M. NK. There's no reason he can't be the SK.

By scum I meant S.C.U.M. There's no way for us to track the SK via night action analysis.


Empking's behavior is scummy, no question there, but I've seen him make a similar nonsense attack as town before so I'm not drawing radical conclusions yet. I would like him to start answering questions, though, and am taking note that he isn't.

[Raging Rabbit]

Ceph is a prime suspect, possibly along with emp. I need to hear more from both and do at least a partial reread before settling on a vote.

Also, I'd like for us to come up with a settled nomenclature for the S.C.U.M. that isn't "scum". I'm kind of sick about the confusion based around "scum". Any ideas? How about "mafia"?

Mafia, SK, scum in general works.

[Raging Rabbit]

Quote:
...and you're a member of the Society of Centauri for the Unity of Mankind (or S.C.U.M. Alliance). You have decided that the goals and ideals of XXXX and YYYY are compatible with your own, and have formed a Pact of Siblinghood with them to try to conquer Planet together.

At night, you may communicate with your Pact Siblings using the following link: [URL], and you may choose one member of the Alliance to attempt to assassinate one of the other faction leaders

instead of performing their usual night action (if any).

You win when all survivors are members of the S.C.U.M. Alliance, or it is inevitable that this will be the case, or if any phase (Day or Night) begins with exactly two players alive, and one is a member of the Alliance and the other is an Isolationist.

[Raging Rabbit]

What question is he dodging?

Congrats on a great avatar, ortolan.

[Raging Rabbit]

Oh c'mon. What do you think the answer is? How is this stopping you from answering the not rhethorical questions directed at you?

[Raging Rabbit]

Oman was imo more likely to choose to redirect rather than kill, especially since he probably figured out I was likely to track him - the two best targets by far for me were ort and Oman.

And

vote empking

. This is getting ridiculous.

[Raging Rabbit]

Starting a quick reread now.

[Raging Rabbit]

Got interrupted, only had time to skim the later parts. Some stuff that stood out:

Vote: MacavityLock

- Roleblocker.

Interesting. Why the roleblocker, emp?

Occam is scared, which is fair. But srsly way too many people on this for it to be a wagon on scum early.

Vote: Cephrir

You don't say you're jumping on the largest bandwagon for no reason. You're doing it for a reason.

His first serious vote of the game. Could be distancing, but the reasoning is solid so maybe he could just be going for a comfortable attack on a townie that did something scummy.

I don't want to put the number of votes you have too high, but I wish I could vote for you: Cephrir

This definitely smells like scumbuddies.

I refuse to believe occum's self vote as anything more that what it usually is: a null tell. Its interesting, but not able to be analysed right now.

you see there are too many variables to deal with here. I can give you one scum-occum for every town-occum scenario you give me. And one town-occum for every scum given to me.

We'll look back on it later, especially if occum is scum.

Interesting how he sticks his neck out so much to protect Occam. Usually I'd say it's too bold a move for them to be scum together, but I wouldn't put it past Oman.

If it was a bandwagon vote, why would I word it as though I hadn't noticed the other votes? When I finished what I was saying and decided to random vote, I just looked up and his was the first name I saw. Don't get why it's being assumed that I'm lying.

Occam's selfvote is weird, there's not much else to say about it. I do think it's a slight scumtell, there's no protown reason to pull shenanigans like that, ever, but he seemed to think it made sense.

Vote: Oman

for assuming that I'm lying for no apparent reason, and for not finding Occam at least a bit shady after that exchange.

This post is very unconvincing and his reasoning for voting Oman is a stretch. Definitely leaning towards distancing now.

As Cephrr is only on three.

Unvote

Vote: Cephrir

Now when things look safer, I can vote my scumbuddy...

69 - There are many out there that would call Occam -> Farside an OMGUS vote, but I am seeing it more and more like distancing. It just screams "look while I rationalise this vote". Not to mention the "if you feel I should be voted out etc." looks like getting the wagon to build to allow someone to victimise people. Of course, on the Hanlon side of things (and I've just been rereading games I've played that makes me think that running with Hanlon is a good thing) he looks like a frustrated townie, backed up by the caps at the top.


95 - Farside hits me with more of these weird extrapolations about "so cephrir wasn't random voting, that means you don't believe Occam had a knee jerk reaction" and all this. Basically I find farside is trying to push the conversation back to Occam from Cephrir. That means that Occamscum and farsidescum are now less liklely than before, because farsidescum was more likely to let Occamscum go there to go after Cephrir town. Of course Cephrir scum makes Farsidescum much more likely.

101 - Cephrir OMGUSes me. Well done.

First he links farside to Occam, then he does a doubletake and links her to Ceph instead. Then the odd comment on Ceph's OMGUS. Ceph's likely a scumbuddy.

192 - Alignments aside (a dangerous idea): FUCK YEAH! This is an awesome post in a pool of wishy crap.

If Occam is scum I'm looking at:

• Empking
• Monekyman

192 is a response to farside by Occam. The list of possible buddies for Occam that has nothing to do with the rest of his conclusions implies they're scumbuddies, but writing "alignments aside" is resp to a scumbuddy is one hell of a gutsy move. I don't know what to think here.

My bad, along with RR's points I'm happy to declare myself wrong here that you two do not seem like scumbuddies right now.

This could be read as "OK, now that MM looks like he's gonna be the lynch, I see no further point connecting him to my buddy". That seems to straightforward though, I'm starting to feel that Oman is

trying

to conncet himself to Occam.

Unvote

Vote; Gremwell

Though I still think MM is scummy, rereading the thread, I feel that Gremwell's plan, the famous "It wasn't scummy, it was a gambit" and the "I'll wait to see other's options" puts her/him as scummier.

Abandons suspicion of Ceph in favor of second strongest wagon. Very possibly wanted to be able to continue his line of thinking d2 and chase a townie rather than a buddy.

If I wasn't sick of this day and almost sure that MM was scum, I'd be jumping on Cephrir. Tomorrow. lacking a better target through night choices, I'm jumping on him.

I'm still thinking bussing.



So... Oman's connected to Ceph and acting really weird about Occam, Ceph's connected to emp, emp is the scummiest player followed by Ceph. Lets have Ceph hammer emp and bathe in the mafia's blood.

Occam's early posts give me an odd vibe upon rereading, his attack on BP in specific could be an SK tell. I'm currently leaning towards his connection with Oman being contrived, which means he probably isn't mafia, but I'm admittedly still confused about that.

I have no real read on DP. Kinda afraid he's the SK.

ML, ort and charter I think are town.

[Raging Rabbit]

[quote=Occam"]I got the same impression, that for whatever reason he was trying to connect himself to me. It didn't make any sense particularly because he was in no danger of being killed. [/quote]

Good scum tend to plant red herrings just in case.


No idea what ML's on about. I don't think with should automatically LAL if that lie is good play for both town and scum, but I have to know what he's talking about to actually make up my mind there.

[Raging Rabbit]

Occam, are you planning on Commuting tonight? If you'd rather not answer, that's understandable, but if you won't answer please say why you won't.

Still waiting on answers from charter: Why did you vig at all last night? Do you think you'll vig tonight?

As for Empking, your question was put out there to be dodged. No one would/should ever take your question seriously. Why did you refuse to answer questions posed to you?

Oh. That's by no means cause for a lynching, and I see no pro town reason for you to want to know the answer to that.

FOS ML

.

[Raging Rabbit]

emp, you're going beyond ridiculous. How is the answer to "do you support random lynching?" anything but completely obvious?

ML's plan doesn't help the town one bit and supplies extra info for the scum, so I'm concerned about him continuing to push it.

[Raging Rabbit]

If you saw a guy walk down the street and another guy comes up to him and asks if he by any chance supports the AIDS virus, and the guy gives him a funny look and keeps going without bothering to answer, who would you think acted odd?

[Raging Rabbit]

Emp, this isn't an issue of "taking a stand".

Nobody

supports random lynching, there is no risk factor involved in saying you don't. The answer to that question is so evident, it's not worth asking and not worth answering. You remind me of the people who join these "1000000 people against cancer" groups on Facebook, as if there's some sort of a "I *heart* cancer" group for them to protest against.

I think you're just trying really hard to throw suspicion DP's way.

[Raging Rabbit]

I'm saying you're doing whatever you can to make your target look bad and avoid your own interrogation.

ortolan makes an excellent point, Ceph's attempt to defend himself by bringing up the masoning is very scummy. I think emp's probably scum as well so I'd favor a double kill, but just lynching Ceph works as well.

[Raging Rabbit]

By refusing to answer DP's questions until he answers yours.

I just explained why you were scummy...

[Raging Rabbit]

No.

My example reffered to real life. I dunno about you, but I hardly spend my days on a lookout for the mafia. If the guy responded to being asked if he supports AIDS by taking out some rope and lynching the other guy, I'd say they both acted odd.

[Raging Rabbit]

I mean you tried to dodge questions and paint the other guy black by really contrived measures.

It's a metaphor.

[Raging Rabbit]

By repeatedly saying he was refusing to answer questions just because he didn't bother to comment on that ridiculous random lynching thing, which also gave you an excuse to not answer those poised to you.

Dude, it's a metaphor. It is relevant, just not exactly the same.

[Raging Rabbit]

Yes.

Look up "metaphor".

[Raging Rabbit]

What other questions?

In my example, you could say odd represents scummy. I guess asking the question in itself was mostly just ridiculous, but using his lack of response to the extent you did is definitely scummy.

[Raging Rabbit]

DP: Why did you ignore my question? Do you find ignoring questions scummy?

You mean these? They continue using the absurd assumption that there's any sort of doubt about the answer to what you asked, and are thus another exmaple of your contrived use of his lack of response. Also, DP apparantly didn't have the time to answer much of anything.

Why do you keep asking loaded questions?

[Raging Rabbit]

*sigh*

Your question wasn't an actual question, didn't need answering. We've been over this. Took me like 10 seconds, why?

Why should DP be allowed to ignore questions?

What's your excuse for the other questions?

1. You mean a completely reasonable and pro-town thing?

All of these are loaded questions. I'm not asking loaded questions. You're the one doing the "questioning" here, anyways.

[Raging Rabbit]

"Why do you keep asking loaded questions?" is standard use of slight irony, and not that loaded anyways.

No, reading a big post and thinking it over takes longer. The questions being a continuation of your absurd "do you support quicklynches?" thing is my focal point.

[Raging Rabbit]

Its very loaded. No less loaded than anything I did.

It didn't require reading a big post. It required answering two short questions.

I just noticed how you managed to totally sidestrack discussion and avoid direct confrontation on my focal point. Well done.

But I'm going to be lynched tomorrow, so then you'll see that this isn't the case.

Huh?

[Raging Rabbit]

errrrr?

the alternative was not protecting him and night-killing him thus leaving no evidence of me not having protected him to begin with.

Err, if I get NK'd, that sorta means I wasn't proteceted... You'd have to face up to that the following day.

and also, I'm fairly certain it's good scumplay to send the scummiest looking player to commit the night-kill- I would have been an obvious choice were I scum.

Worthless WIFOM argument.


Basically if ortolan's scum, that means he had a between protecting a buddy and killing me, protecting a buddy and killing someone else, protecting someone else and killing someone else, and protecting me.

Protecting someone else and killing someone else is basically inferior to protecting me, so the choice boils down to the other 3. Killing me would lead to questioning about why he didn't protect me, while protecting a buddy and killing someone else could result in me tracking ortolan for a double scum catch. So protecting me was the safest play for him, though I think both other options were viable as well so protecting me does make him more likely town in my book. However, the way he's recently been trying to use that to totally clear himself while displaying what appears like feigned ignorance about the scum reasoning for that choice puts him back on my suspect list.

As for charter, the only situation I see in which it benefits him to create that false dichotomy about me and ortolan is if he's buddies with ortolan, which I find unlikely. Probably just a mistake, I still find charter town-ish.

I still think the best course of action today is lynching emp, and Ceph should still imo be the one to hammer. ortolan goes up to being my second choice.


I apparantly forgot about my own scumday.

[Raging Rabbit]

As for Ceph's suggestion to give him another day, it's totally worthless if either he or ML is scum, and NKing him would make a nice scum/SK gambit even if they're both innocent. So basically it's a BS self preservation argument.

[Raging Rabbit]

and it's not like at the start of day two I started proclaiming "hehe yer I protected RR, I must be town", it was only in response to charter's argument and continued suspicion of me.

But it's not like charter's suspicion of you was based on the night actions, he just thought they clear you more than they actually do and then realized they don't. His actual case, as far as I gather, is based on other things that carried over from yesterday. So you choosing to further argue that choosing to protect me somehow totally clears you does seem scummy.

[Raging Rabbit]

errrrr?

the alternative was not protecting him and night-killing him thus leaving no evidence of me not having protected him to begin with.

This is what gets me. You keep ignoring the fact that nightkilling me clearly tells the town that you didn't protect me. You then use that false assumption to come to the conclusion that killing me was 100% your best move as scum, and thus since you protected me that makes you obvtown. This is a contrived argument. I don't find the case on Gremwell that convincing, but the above is scummy in and of itself.

[Raging Rabbit]

What the hell? No it isn't. I don't remember if I said I found you townie during day one but don't think I did. If I didn't, I could have simply said I didn't think you were town and worth protecting. If I had said you were townie I could have put it down to night-kill WIFOM. So no, it's not scummy at all, and I don't know why you would think it is.

I've no time to check right now, but at the very least I recall not being surprised that you chose to protect me and expressed a pro town read. In fact, I even recall you saying you were surprised I wasn't targeted with a kill. Thus it makes sense for scum-you to think that if I'll get killed people will wonder about your protection. I mean, tracker is sorta the obvious choice regardless of reads, along with vig maybe. The "night WIFOM" argument is a weak one and would leave you under heavy scrunity.

I never said you speculating about what you'd have done as scum is scummy, that's totally missing the point. I said during your speculation, you choose to ignore a key fact to arrive to the conclusion that you're obvtown, and that the speculation therefore looks contrived.

[Raging Rabbit]

errrrr?

the alternative was not protecting him and night-killing him thus leaving no evidence of me not having protected him to begin with.

Quoted for like the third time. Key fact being ignored. Obviously you couldn't ignore it any longer once I directly pointed at it.

I think it's fairly obvious that me getting killed following you saying you didn't find me town would result in at least some amount of scrunity for you, and since you were a leading lynch candidate yesterday I can see how scum-you would prefer going for the most pro town looking choice. I initially thought you being town is a better explanation, but the above looks more likely since you refuse to admit it's a viable option for scum-you and keep pushing the "I protected RR and am thus obvtown" argument.

I'll review charter later.

[Raging Rabbit]

Just pointing out that it's just over 3 days to deadline, so if we want Ceph (or anyone else) to hammer emp we better start piling votes and applying some pressure.

[Raging Rabbit]

Forcing a hammer on emp is very unlikely to work by now.

Unvote, vote Cephrir

. That's L-1, and therefore hammertime. Ceph is a way better lynch than charter, I can see some merit in ML's SK case on charter but Ceph is loads scummier and can be either SK or (more likely) mafia.

[Raging Rabbit]

The only line of defense I see is "don't lynch me today, you need me to investigate!"

[Raging Rabbit]

ML blocked charter. Wasn't targeted by anything I'm aware of.
ortolan's next.

[Raging Rabbit]

From my point of view, charter's essentially cleared. Therefore two of Occam, Claus and ort are mafia and SK. Lynching whoever of them's the townie will put us in a pretty terrible situation, so we need to choose carefully. ortolan's my current top choice, but I need reread the early game and hear more from all 3, especially Claus who's been consitantly quiet.

[Raging Rabbit]

Trying to figure some stuff out in my head -

If we mislynch today, that leaves me, charter and two scum. If Claus is left alive it's 100% town loss, otherwise (if he's lynched and turns town) there's a chance for Occam and ort to crosskill, or for them both to hit the same townie and put us in prisoner's dillema where they have another chance to crosskill or possibly end up with everyone dead. So in the only case it matters, the dominant strategy for charter is clearly to no-kill.

ortolan's suggestion made him look very good at first glance, but then I figured he's the obvious vig target for charter anyways if he decides to vig after a mislynch, so it can also be an attempt at the "he's too willing to die to be scum, so I won't kill him" WIFOM game. So it doesn't tell me much, really. The thing that does slightly work in his favor is him being a doctor, and therefore capable of preventing a kill tonight if we lynch right and he's town. A sucessful protection allows us an extra townkill to find the last scum tomorrow. Still, it's kinda a minor difference. We should definitely focus on lynching whoever's scummiest.

[Raging Rabbit]

I reread Gremwell and ort's early posting, Gremwell I find odd but not the least bit scummy (I think unlike MM, he seemed totally aware that the "let's kill 'em both" plan will attract bad attention and can't see how that's a good thing for him as scum to pull off), and ort feels town but it's sorta a mafia tell that he says very little about Oman and Cephrir in his big catch-up posts.
I remember having slight SK vibes from both DP and Occam, will reread them both and take another look at ort when I'll have the time.

[Raging Rabbit]

Dunno about saying nothing, freezing a game like that can be crippling. We definitely need to hear loads more from Claus.

[Raging Rabbit]

This is besides the point. It's obvious at this point that if I'm scum I'm going to lose. I will either get lynched today or vigged tonight if I am scum. I have absolutely nothing to gain by offering myself up for a vig- as I said, all it accomplishes if I am scum is causing town to lose, but I also lose in the process.

Scum-you has absolutely nothing to lose, either. It's obvious you're by far the most likely vig target if we mislynch today (assuming charter chooses to kill), whether you offer yourself up for it or not, so it's definitely a viable option for you to offer yourself up in order to maybe get charter to reconsider.
Also, a no vig is a very viable choice after a mislynch - probably the one that maximizes the town's small chances of winning, as far as I can tell - so asking to be vigged is kinda an empty gesture.

This is quite unfair. Most of my posts have been to get the heat off Gremwell, as a huge number of people suspected him when I replaced in. My posts were in response to people like charter wagoning the fuck out of me. So if you thought Gremwell was town then finding me scummy is rather unfair because my posts were in response to others perceiving him as scummy. I don't think I've done anything properly scummy the whole game.

I was talking how about your long catch-up posts say very little about both Oman and Ceph, which makes you slightly more likely mafia since they have a tendency to ignore their buddies.
Something in the above paragraph reads authentic to me, though. It sounds like you genuinely feel mistreated.

That's twice now that you tried to "confirm" yourself by unconvincing measures, completely ignoring the motivation for scum-you do to the same. I'm starting to think you're genuinely convinced that they really clear you, since knowing that you're town you just never tried to look at things from the prespective of people who don't know your alignment and think of possible scum motivation for the very same things you do as town. The arguments themselves are unconvincing, but if you truely believe them they're a strong towntell. I need to think this through.

[Raging Rabbit]

Ort, can you explain that last paragraph there? I'm not sure I follow it. Empking was the obvious choice (in my opinion) for both their kills. We could have forced one of them to hammer Emp, and when they invariably didn't do it, we could just lynch them. Eerily close to Cephir..

I don't think this logic works, killing emp basically means that whoever in the alternate reality in which he survives is considered second scummiest and forced to hammer emp, simply gets lynched instead. I was actually quite surprised to see emp NKd.

[Raging Rabbit]

You're not Ort.

Sorry, thought you were raising a topic for general discussion. What were you hoping to glean from his response on emp?

[Raging Rabbit]

RR, can you give me (as of right now) the two people you think are LEAST likely to be SK/mafia please?

Well, we have 5 people alive. I know I'm town, and I know you're town. So the SK and mafia are two out of ort, Occam and Claus. I'm wavering on ort right now, barring another reread I'll go with Claus as SK and Occam and ort being about equally likely to be the last scum.
So the two are you, for being confirmed as far as I'm concerned, and Occam/ ort which I don't find particurlarly scummy but know one of them has to be scum.

[Raging Rabbit]

Technically someone could've blocked ML with a farside gift, but the chance of that is so small I'm willing to consider you confirmed for all intents and purposes.

[Raging Rabbit]

I wanna hear loads more from Claus first, and Occam speaking up some more would be nice too. Occam, what do you think of ort and DP/Claus?

[Raging Rabbit]

Actually, said "kingmaker" situation is prisoner's dillema - townie votes no lynch, then the scum have to 25% chance to hit each other and cause a town win. If your probabilities are correct, charter choosing to vig results in a town win 1/3 of the times (1/2 if he doesn't get paranoid and vigs me) in the 44% situation, and a loss in every other situation except the 11% one in which town wins anyways. That still means vigging is by far the best strategy, since the alternative is winning 1/4 of the times in a 22% situation, which I wasn't sure of before myself. I'll check your math later.

[Raging Rabbit]

Decided to go ahead, math checks out. One thing - if Occamscum can commute tonight, best strategy is to no vig and hope for one death only. So there's about a 50% chance vigging is inferior to a no vig after all.

His support of no vig makes me think he can't commute today if he's scum, though.

Note - none of this matters we mislynch either Occam or ort, since Claus is BP.

guess you're right about prisoner's dilemma, I assumed from previous games that these situations usually end by a lynch happening that day chosen by the townie though, otherwise in this game for example they would need to wait 3 weeks for the day to end, because I don't see the scum willingly converting a kingmaker situation into a prisoner's dilemma.

Townie votes no lynch. Both others then have no choice but wait for deadline or vote along with him.

347- Huge point against RR. Calls Oman likely town.

Oman made what I considered a very good summary post, and from my prespective of MM as obvscum seemed to be looking reasonably at things, so I had a mild townread on him. Clearly, I'm not always right. How is that a "huge point"?

[Raging Rabbit]

Townie just votes no lynch, states that he's not gonna say anything further and stops chekcing the game 'till it's decided. I'm sure both me and charter are capable of that.

[Raging Rabbit]

Skimmed Occam and DP, I too am thinking Claus looked like the best lynch. Until we hear from him, two questions for Occam:

1. You voted BP early in the game for being useless for town but dangerous for scum. Since your role is essentially 1/2 BP, don't you think that's sorta hypocrital? What what you have said if someone voted you back then citing the same reasons?
2. Why did you just claim?

[Raging Rabbit]

Yup. No point in waiting for ages to find a replacement, then have him catch up on 36 and finally give us his two cents on them, only for him to most likely get lynched immediately afterwards.

[Raging Rabbit]

Vote Claus

.

*crosses fingers*

[Raging Rabbit]

From my point of view, Claus has a 2/3 chance of being SK/mafia, but on the 1/3 that he's town we very probably lose. I therefore have every reason to keep my fingers crossed.

[Raging Rabbit]

Oh look, I was telling the truth about ML's action all that time.

One thing I'm really pissed off at myself for, N1 we considered Oman redirecting Yos to himself to protect him from kills, but Oman was too afraid of Yos being the SK and ended up doing nothing. I only just realized redirector

can't

effect the SK, so doing that was risk-free and would've kept Oman alive.

I had a feeling Occam's early BP vote was an SK tell, but was dissuaded by how town he he looked other than that. Excellent job, Occam, especially that self-vote which really took some serious balls.

Was also getting increasingly paranoid about charter being the SK after he posted a simple "yay" when I confirmed him, but if he was the SK I was done for anyways so I opted for killing Occam hoping that he can't commute (ort was obvtown), which it turned out he could.

Anyways, really enjoyed this. Good game all, and thank for modding iamausername!