Mini 2260: Achromatic Calamity || Game Over

[mc esther]

Seems a bit hypocritical for Lavender, and the other surviving and/or resurrected Knights to continue calling themselves by colors...

if satanists can keep their biblical names, then achromaticists can keep their colour names.

VOTE: radical rat

[mc esther]

ya agreed with isis that anahit's town. also contrast its posts to cakez' and greeting's; she's unusually willing to dig into hatter's posts for the sake of moving the game forward.

[mc esther]

posting is good for town though

okay!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: greeting

[mc esther]

ive definitely been that hedgy and got that defensive over it as town before. perhaps this is an unreasonable extrapolation -- just because i hedge as town, doesnt mean it's not a legitimate tell for most players -- but yeah ive always been skeptical of [especially early-game] hedginess as a "real" scumread.

what's more questionable to me is the way that their [rather inconclusive] conclusion is kinda phrased as an fos, but not accompanied by a vote. it's not like flame doesnt believe in frivolous votes, they did an rvs.

idk i still kinda wanna wagon greeting rn, but if that's not happening, sure, flame could be fun.

[mc esther]

b! if you think greeting is currently the most likely mafia do you not think there is some equity between greeting and vanderscamp?

honestly, idk if i actually believe that. i mostly just wanted a counterwagon, and felt that greeting was as good a shot as any for the purpose (partly because i'd misread the thread, oops). i probably shouldve voted ahri, but whatever.

but taking the question on its assumptions regardless: im not sure what you mean by equity, and i personally dont really consider the vanderscamp and greeting to be "linked" in any way. but vanderscamp pings vaguely town, i like that he didnt let the argument over treating every post as alignment-indicative drag out.

no opinion on cakez and tea party (i feel like i, should, have an opinion on tea party... but i cant actually seem to form one. weird slot, fun slot, frustrating slot).

__

Anahit isn't approaching my slot how I'd imagine scum doing which isn't conclusive but points strongly

to

away from green.

? doesnt "not how i'd imagine scum" imply "to green"? idg the strike here

UNVOTE:

gets difficult here. i like to get answers from someone before voting them. but i cant just vote elsewhere "for the counterwagon" now ive acknowledged that was my goal.

VOTE: radical rat

i guess this works.

[mc esther]

yeah "no opinion" on the tea party was wrong (or ive changed my mind in the past five minutes), they ping vaguely town to me. i'd say anahit, vanderscamp, the tea party are my townreads in descending order, but there's a pretty big gap between each of them.

[mc esther]

I don't dig this vote. Interested to see where it goes.

sorry to disappoint, but as im sure youve since noticed -- nowhere!

Oh and I don't understand the votes on Radical Rat.

aside from the generally lacklustre iso,

I have read all of the posts so far and they're NAI to be fair.

You think every post in the game so far is NAI?

i dont really get why this is a question, like. i dont see what answer theyre expecting here, i dont see much room for elaboration. the comment seems pretty self-explanatory, and i assume greeting said it because he believes it's an accurate assessment of the thread. perhaps it's a rhetorical question, but i feel like that should be accompanied by a vote? perhaps theyre trying to prod greeting into taking a reread and taking action -- i kinda gave that latter one a shot earlier -- but again, i feel like that should be accompanied by a vote? that latter explanation would also be bordering on hypocritical given, again, rat's pretty scant iso (and, eh, maybe im also being hypocritical here, but i think my iso beyond the first post relates much more directly to the game).

[mc esther]

basically i mean that they have higher likelihood of being mafia together - it is like, if you thought greeting was the most likely mafia, then vanderscamp's vote pressuring edensflame very shortly thereafter without engaging with your vote on greeting in anyway would potentially be suspicious, yeah? but instead your thought was 'oh i might join that wagon', thus my question

oh! i like this question. but no, even ignoring that vanderscamp pings vaguely town to me. in a world where greeting flips maf, i wouldnt read vanderscamp as trying to avoid a wagon on their buddy, because i can easily see town ignoring my unexplained vote in favour of a case of their own.

also sircakez and mad hatters tea party i guess to much lesser extents, but mostly vanderscamp yea

same goes for cakez, like, i dont really have a read on him at all. but per above, i dont see anything wrong with picking vanderscamp's explained vote over my unexplained one.

the tea party would i suppose be more suspicious along these lines, given that they didnt really explain their radical rat vote. on the flip side, they openly said "yeah no real case" while this question is open, which would seem pretty bold if they were expecting greeting to flip maf. counterpoint, theyre probably not really expecting any sort of flip any time soon; there simply, wasnt a real threat. overall i have the tea party down as null-town, and greeting flipping maf wouldnt really change this read for me.

i mean, this is mostly because greeting's been absent since and others didn't really engage with it, which seems like kinda a strange thing for you to interpret as +town for greeting rather than +mafia,

i just didnt think my vote was doing anything there. i couldve parked it for the next few days to make doubly sure, but that didnt seem worth lol. like. do you want to vote greeting with me?

and i assume greeting said it because he believes it's an accurate assessment of the thread

i kinda think it was a callback to the isis/vanderscamp/me talk about posts being ai

like it felt like a very intentional post from greeting rather than simply 'this is how i feel about the game'

yeah okay, i see it. the main reason i disagree(d?) is that, i think even maf says this because it's true to them -- it's much harder to know what's alignment-indicative when you already know everyone's alignment; you dont get to organically infer without that particular confirmation bias. i think this comment is typically sincere as either alignment, even though it's marginally more likely to come from maf. to be clear, this is very much theory, not experience.

i may or may not have more thoughts on rat/greeting in a sec.

[mc esther]

okay, "thoughts" is a strong word, but

I wanted to start a conversation that never happened. For one, I wasn't completely sure whether he meant from a particular slot or literally every post made in the game. If the latter, I would have pointed out a handful of posts I thought were AI and asked for opinions. I also may have said something like "Including this one?" followed by a vote, if I felt more provocative at the time of response.

I have read all of the posts so far and they're NAI to be fair.

You think every post in the game so far is NAI?

Up to that particular point, yes. I am catching up with what appeared since then right now.

i get that it loses its impact after youve announced your intentions (and that act of announcing your intentions kinda changes how you read the response), but i find it odd that no form of this conversation happened even after greeting engaged in, precisely the manner you said you would find suspicious.

[mc esther]

im a little bothered that it's two-and-a-half days to deadline and we dont have any real wagons (like, three votes is a start-of-day wagon, not so much a "most of the way through day and we need real elimination candidates" wagon). pretty sick of negotiating deadline votes so much lately; i'd kinda like to play a game where the elimination happens because a majority of people actually wanted a specific person gone.

wouldve liked to stay quiet on this next point, because i wanted to see the interaction play out a little more before commenting, but in light of the deadline observation: i think rat/greeting is a really plausible pairing. i think greeting asking after a rat case was odd, and i think rat's prodding at greeting without ever really committing to a read looks like distancing.

I'd rather vote out someone who at least seems scummy than just pick someone at random.

then why is your vote still random?

my underseller's hypothesis

i skimmed your iso, im struggling to concentrate on anything rn but i didnt see any other reference to this. what is the underseller's hypothesis?

[mc esther]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: greeting

why not a fan?



i'll go over the past two pages again in a bit, i skimmed-and-forgot them a couple of hours back.

[mc esther]

I've read some Greeting Town games and this is very similar

what do you think of rat/toogeloo?

[mc esther]

UNVOTE:

yeah echoing the sentiment i think ive read in a few places, not so sure greeting's the best elimination any more. maybe i'll change my mind again in a bit.

i dont want to put toogeloo on e-1 before ive properly caught up, that's quite likely where my vote will be going once ive had my coffee etc..

[mc esther]

im, largely awake. yeah i just spotted a few posts on my phone skim that made me go "huh"

I feel like I've been defending Greeting, but I don't know that I have; I just have played a bunch of games with him recently and haven't noticed much difference

I've read some Greeting Town games and this is very similar

i dont think these players are both maf with greeting lmao, nor do i believe that theyre maf together working together for the nefarious purpose of preventing a greeting miselim. i think they both have the same opinion because theyre probably right.

If I do get miselimmed, I would advise to look for scum in my wagon. There’s surprisingly little opposition to it, the majority seems to be either supportive or indifferent to it.

I would mention that almost all the votes popped up on you in less than 25 posts.

that's part of why i asked you about what you thought the mafia were doing as those votes popped up after i was interacting with greeting and such,

[mc esther]

there are possibilities like maf!flame seizing on galron's post as a way to defend maf!greeting; and it's even possible that galron/greeting's a scumteam and flame just happens to be wrong in a way that aligns with galron's take. these seem less likely to me than "theyre both town with the same read", and i tend to take it pretty seriously when the same read comes from different places, especially reads on players i dont know.

[mc esther]

idk. i need to read more before i commit to a position on this. i dont particularly like greeting's iso when i very briefly skimmed (kinda just scrolled lmao) it just then, but something (probably how fast the wagon flashed up) makes me subjectively way uneasy about it. idk what to make of the fact that i tried to wagon him way early and nobody was interested, and now all of a sudden everyone's like "yeah sure why not"'; like, idk if that makes the wagon "likely sincere" or "likely insincere" on average, or if it's completely non-indicative. i guess it kinda looks like a counterwagon to toogeloo but i might not believe that at all when i actually check the sequence of events.

[mc esther]

What separates toogeloo from dwlee?

theyre not that comparable? like, dwlee would be an "i want to get rid of the lurker" elimination. radical rat (idk about toogeloo) is a scumread.

[mc esther]

VOTE: toogeloo

re: "greeting as a counterwagon to defend toogeloo" (wait i think im re-ing myself). my initial reaction looking more carefully was "lol no"; rat's wagon at the time of the cakez vote was just me/isis/party, not exactly serious pressure. but looking more carefully still, with deadline looming and a slow-moving game, i could potentially see maf worried that toogeloo was becoming a deadline elimination. cakez' unexplained vote makes a ton of sense in this latter context, i was on the rat wagon and had earlier made it pretty clear that i was interested in voting greeting with someone; in this world, cakez wasnt necessarily hoping for the flash wagon, he just wanted to deadlock them. cakez also more explicitly defends toogeloo (well, says he doesnt want them eliminated; which, eh, same thing in my books) later, so i do think cakez looks pretty suspicious if toogeloo flips maf.

isis and the tea party, eh, i think theyre town. i think if ahri's serious about "isis is maf for defending toogeloo", she should wait for a toogeloo flip to make that call.

[mc esther]

i think isis can just, be wrong about toog; and i dont think all three maf jumped on the greeting wagon. to me, if it's cakez/toog, it seems pretty unlikely to also be isis? but sure, maybe. that said, my main point here is that i suspect toogeloo's maf, but obviously i dont actually know that for sure, and presumably you dont either. i dont want to eliminate toog's buddy today, i want to eliminate toog and look for their buddy if im proven right.

[mc esther]

and she was also potentially trying to move ahri back to voting toogeloo as well

"potentially", oof, i was apparently not clear enough in my intentions. i [thought i was] very definitely and unambiguously attempting to move ahri back to toogeloo.

[mc esther]

what does anyone assume about dwlee/pooky/vanderscamp w/ regards to current wagons

my vanderscamp town read hasnt changed. pooky's spectacularly null. dwlee, and this is probably a more direct answer to your question than these previous two reads-in-a-vacuum: i dont think theyre bussing, so i'd hard townread dwlee on a toog scumflip. not much opinion on them beyond that.

[mc esther]

Why the need to broadcast it?

but obviously i dont actually know that for sure

because i was directly answering a question from someone who was actually (or seemed to be) assuming toogeloo's flip in advance?

[mc esther]

I am not sure if my vote is still valid after

Radical Rat

's replacement so in case it isn't then VOTE: Toogeloo.

Unfortunately, I won't be able to read the thread thoroughly as I wanted to. I still do wish to play though. If, somehow, I make it to Day 2, I will contribute more. If not then oh well, farewell. Haven't been gotten my head around this game anyway.

this just feels like such a weak sauce vote
I mean I'm confbiased here I know but c'mon the Toog wagon is ass

it's not even "really" a vote lmao. like, sure, it's silly. but is failure to understand how replacement interacts with voting, maf? or, do you think maf pretends not to understand this?

as for the rest of his post, nah, ive been in that position before, i vibe with it.

[mc esther]

okay cakez, you owe me a favour at some point in future, but sure, you can have this one.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: greeting

[mc esther]

im assuming it's plurality at deadline, but i'll admit, im curious about the case where there are two wagons with an equal number of votes on them. i almost want to just, arrange for that to happen lmao.

[mc esther]

im pretty sure it's the hammer, actually

[mc esther]

nope my bad just e-1

[mc esther]

yeah pooky and ahri really do kinda stick out there hey

[mc esther]

oh, you can only hammer?

[mc esther]

i got prodded. havent really read the thread at all, just skimmed some of the top of this page, apparently people(? maybe just two?) are scumreading ahri now. intuitively, i like this development, im curious what people think of what this says about maf placement across d1 wagons. is the general agreement two maf on greeting? regardless, i very much like the idea of one hiding out in pooky/ahri to just, avoid making a call on the issue. this is especially true if toogeloo is town, which. yeah. obviously im gonna need to come back to toogeloo.

i'll have, actual thoughts on the posts people actually made in, some number of hours, im taking a nap, big day. nice day.

[mc esther]

the worst pagetop

[mc esther]

lmao. the d2 posts about toogeloo have been really weird, i dont think their eod jokeclaim was a big deal and i dont think theyre claiming a guilty.

galron is, ehhhhh, rn. i had him down as a townread d1, and i think a lot of his iso still reads kinda towny. but i just struggle to buy that #461 onwards is his town contribution to the thread. i dont think prodding at me with weird points trivially explained by context, or anahit with questions about frankly the least alignment-indicative hammer possible (and then? voting dwlee?) is where he's at as town.

isis. eh. i wanna say she's still town, but she pings.

toogeloo. why do the people who think toogs is town, think theyre town? i want to consider this after i made the mistake of ignoring my "idk those townreads on greeting look like there's something to them" sheepread. but i dont really see any real explanation for town!toogeloo. is it just vibes? i still think rat looked awful, and toogeloo hasnt done anything to reverse it for me.

[mc esther]

You saying there appeared to be consensus that two scum were on Greeting -- yeah, that's a real question.

not only did i not say this, it's pretty clear from the post (okay! apparently not that clear! but i dont know how it couldve been clearer, so!) that i could not possibly have had any idea of what the consensus might be. i was kinda surprised on actually reading the thread to find that there had been no direct speculation on this, like, idk, just seems the place to look to me. but yeah, after vanderscamp came through with the same question im kinda like "okay, i guess town do miss this".

Look, I get that I haven't been as active today as I was yesterday, but I've got reasons for that that have nothing to do with this game. Well, little to do with it. At least the pace has picked up a bit from where we were yesterday. Anyway, I may or may not be more active going forward. There's stuff going on IRL, and this hasn't been a priority this week.

i didnt mention activity and fwiw, i dont think i would ever go after you over activity.

there'll be a vote in my next post, i still dont know where. the only thing i really agree with galron on is, is that, yeah, game is hard.

[mc esther]

I'd put tooges at e-1 but I don't want them to self vote and end the day early

i 100% want to see this happen, and im 100% sure it wont happen.

VOTE: toogeloo

the d1 edensflame/vanderscamp microcounterwagon on dwlee looks kinda, uh, honest to me. like, it looks like a wagon town would start/join? maybe a weird call, but i definitely think both vanderscamp and edensflame are town; both of these players already kinda pinged town to me, so maybe it's confbias, but. i feel pretty strong on these two.

toogeloo's a good information flip imo. maf!toogeloo implies maf!cakez to me. town!toogeloo implies there's maf between ahri and pooky to me. i kinda get the feeling nobody else agrees on these points (actually, edensflame might agree on the latter, i think this is part of what theyre getting at when they call ahri noncommittal).

[mc esther]

im aware i havent built a ton of goodwill here, but: i need claims from pooky, galron, isis, and ahri.

youll get a rather illuminating claim from me after. some of you may have already guessed the broad strokes of it.

[mc esther]

okay pooky, thank you, i'll accept that as enough from you for now.

[mc esther]

still expecting something from galron, isis, and ahri. hopefully something a little less stubborn.

[mc esther]

cmon galron ik you lowkey scumread me, but give me something to work with here. you saw i didnt need much from pooky.

[mc esther]

i didnt realize there was a competition for "who can make the most cryptic post", but i suppose i did kinda start it. and i'd be lying if i said i didnt enjoy it.

[mc esther]

actually, dw galron, i dont need any more from you if you dont want to share. sorry for being so slow on the uptake.

[mc esther]

ahri! you around?

[mc esther]

VOTE: ahri

[mc esther]

uvfgh. fucking. okay. isis is almost certainly maf. pooky/galron can both be town, but neither is clear.

[mc esther]

i mean. you did quickhammer consecutive days. i think youre townier than galron tho, so like, not really.

[mc esther]

But you voted Ahri

prod-dodging tbh. there were other reasons too, i think mostly pretty obvious.

[mc esther]

I was really excited to read the rest of the Lavender/Crimson romance/intrigue <3

same

With regards to the town power I thought they all played really well actually

i mean they had 2 flipped tprs already so they should've just said kill all four of these people and game is over cuz why would there be 4 TPRs + 2 Masons in a 13P :<

ya im with pooky on this, i thought dwlee and i did, ehhhh, okay. some really good moments (hitting the scumteam, this was basically all dwlee imo), but mostly pretty bad (daft early miselims, botching the guilties).