Mini 615: The Eclipse- Game!

[armlx]

No hunter should ever shoot until it is mathematically impossible for there to be another townie.

We also need to consider if a hunter should claim if they are about to be lynched.

[armlx]

Ok, I have determined this is the opposite of AITP. Random voting is good as the town is the uninformed "minority" in this game.

Vote Darox

and what not.

[armlx]

icemanE, the hunter claiming does 2 things.

1) Lets the cult leader direct their recruits more effectively towards actual recruitables, where as recruiting the hunter is not optimal for them as well, its not a recruit. This is why its debatable. Also the WIFOM reasons and what not.

2) This game has a different town and scum WC then usual, so even if the game ends going into night as 4 cult vs the 1 hunter (absolute worst case scenario of all mislynches and recruits), town still can win if the hunter shoots right.

[armlx]

Basically, we mill around, try to keep the cult numbers as low as possible to increase the hunters chance of hitting, then put a round through the Demon King's head at the last moment.

Or we lynch the Demon King. That works too.

[armlx]

So is random voting a no-no in this setup as well?

Not at all. Random voting is good for the same reasons its good in normal mafia here as the scum is still the informed minority at the start.

[armlx]

I only waited till my second as I was still figuring out if randoming was good or not.

[armlx]

The issue with the 2nd half is similar to AITP. We may be able to slip in a lynch on the back of some cultists trying to avoid indicating who is king.

[armlx]

Yes, it does.

[armlx]

armlx and sleepy panda: If you had to choose someone to lynch right now, who would you choose and why?

Can't answer that legitimately without a post from everyone.

[armlx]

What do the rest of you think about the Jaguar replacement issue, and why was that question only addressed to me, Awesomepants?

I don't. Mods usually do that to ensure that to ensure no one is cleared by replacement timing.

[armlx]

So it's a nulltell from where you're standing.

Yes, completely.

[armlx]

Fair enough, what if you had to choose those that have posted?

Umm, probably you for refusing to random vote, but thats pretty weak.

[armlx]

Interesting, what inherent property of random voting do you think would make scum less likely to partake in random voting?

Have you ever played AitP? For the scum, its a similar concept in comparison to that game (1 person they don't want to leave connections to), hence the reason they wouldn't random vote.

[armlx]

The only point I can see is the CR not wanting to be tied to any of his cultists should they be lynched

The reverse is the point. The cultists don't want to link to the recruiter.

[armlx]

Ah, but can you explain how random voting would do that? It's not like we're quick-lynching here.

Random voting is not truly random. People, especially informed ones (usually scum), often worry a lot more about their random votes then they should and direct it specificially while making up reasons for it.

[armlx]

Mod, can we get prods on xyzzy and Bogre (the latter has been replaced elsewhere BTW)

Or we can just run the scum chat plan and quick lynch xyzzy in 8 seconds.

[armlx]

To me, your most recent posts appear more OMGUS than Darox's. He's the one voting you. I don't see you directing anything at Darox besides your first question on what he thinks of armlx leading.

How is his post even remotely close to the definition of OMGUS.

Yeah, I suppose it is a bit wishy washy in the way I've worded it, but it's not always just what they do, but rather the way in which they do it. For example, I liked the way you justified your answer to that question but your most recent post comes off as a bit 'OMGUS' which I do find a bit funny.

How is his post even remotely close to the definition of OMGUS.

Yes, typing that twice was intentional.

[armlx]

EBWODP: First quote was Sleepy Panda, second was Awesome Pants.

[armlx]

It doesn't fit the definition exactly as stated in the wiki, but Pants is saying he finds Darox's recent posts scummy and all Darox has done was vote Pants. It's close enough to OMGUS from how I see it.

He has a point though. He initiated the discussion as well.

[armlx]

Unvote, Vote Xyzzy

The only reason to lynch randomly in this game is to promote a cult win.

[armlx]

Remember, no claims this game. Claiming can only hurt the town.

[armlx]

On day two or beyond, I agree. But today, we have the benefit that the recruitees do't know that they're going to be scum yet - a good strategy might be to have each player decide on an order of scumminess today - since the scum has one recruit, there'll be almost nothing to go on today, but tomorrow and beyond we can use the information about who no longer supports what to our advantage much more than in regular games.

Lol, so much wrong here. Just give the cult leader full info, make lynches set up ahead of time, etc.

[armlx]

OK, I reviewed the game setup. I think X is at best a CR, not the DK. I'm willing to hammer on him if you all think it's worth killing a CR instead of finding the DK on day one, but before I hammer I'd like to hear what the replacement has to say about X first.

I agree we should wait on the replacement to post, but why do you think Xyzzy is only a recruit?

[armlx]

1 is semi-valid, but I'm not really sure on it. Seems like an extension of the Too Townie argument.

2 I definitely disagree with, but explaining it would not be in the best interest of the town right now.

[armlx]

Thats fine. I just wanted to see what your logic behind that statement was, as saying that unbacked is kinda sketchy. Whether I agree with it or not was only secondary. I legitimately think xyzzy could be the DK here.

[armlx]

As for discussion on whether Xyzzy is recruit or DK, unlike normal cult games, in this setup the town can win by only lynching cultists the entire game, and in fact would be the best case scenario outside of lynching the DK, because it narrows the pool of targets down so much that there is only the DK and the hunter left.

Especially at the end, if the DK's final recruit is a hunter, which opens the last day with 2 people, the new hunter, and the DK.

Darox makes a good point.

[armlx]

I just noticed that path of action makes every single townie bar the hunter(s) lose the game.

Cultist win conditions make things strange.

Basically the only way all 6 townies can win is if we kill the DK right now, or if he manages to hit the hunter on every recruitment attempt.

The issue with this is playing for being recruited does not benefit you as you won't be recruited as you will be the lynch to be set up.

Basically, it is in every players best interest to play for whatever WC they have at that point in time.

[armlx]

So would the DK not do well to pick the scummiest looking people to recruit for the next day then?

Let's try these two situations:

A. Assume X is not the DK, and that we do not lynch X today. The DK would probably choose to recruit DK tonight based on the fact that he appeared scummy today - this means he would be a sitting duck who would potentially absorb the kill on the next day.

B. Assume X is not the DK, and that we DO lynch X today. Would the DK most likely choose to pick the next SCUMMIEST person or the person who appeared most protown the first day?

It's all speculation but it's important in terms of how you play your cards - as Darox said, every townie bar the hunter will lose this game if we don't lynch the DK.

What is this post even saying?

[armlx]

As far as I can tell, its asking what the optimal DK strat would be. Hence my vote.

Do you REALLY think I'd ask the town for advice as the DK? Really?

Again, this post is irrel. You wouldn't directly, but your post didn't directly (assuming Darox is right).

However, I think just lynching Xyzzy is probably right about now.

[armlx]

Arm - are you thinking along the lines that Darox is - i.e., are you suspicious that either myself or X or both myself and X is a recruit and/or the DK?

I just feel this is a topic that needs to be clarified and discussed, if not at the least for later.

Also, Iceman, just aiming for the DK just bad logics the game to pieces. You get into things like too scummy and what not. Right now I'm just voting for the person who is most deserving of a lynch (Xyzzy), which should eventually get the DK.

[armlx]

However, I realized that lynching the scummiest person is the only sensible course of action.

Since when? Your posts say otherwise.

[armlx]

However, I realized that lynching the scummiest person is the only sensible course of action.

Since when? Your posts say otherwise.

Since post 114. Check it out.

That's a pretty opportune turn around.

Definitely with Darox on this one, though I think Xyzzy is the better first lynch as one of the pairings I'm looking at is Xyzzy CL with you trying to deflect attention from him here.

[armlx]

He did after all put xyzzy at Lynch-1, and thats a real dumb thing to do as cultist, as well as trying to lynch him, which is why I feel icemanE is more likely DK looking for townie points.

I dunno about dumb thing. Its a gambit, and a decently considerable one given Xyzzy's scenario.

Basically, I respect your view point, but I direct you back to

Right now I'm just voting for the person who is most deserving of a lynch (Xyzzy), which should eventually get the DK.

[armlx]

Heh, OMGUS much?

This is a very strong conclusion to make from interpreting two posts, which, in my mind, were not strong enough to warrant such a conclusion.

I notice a contradiction between this and your attempted hammer.

This is something scum does to preserve themselves, and hint at possibly being a power role.

This is something town do when they know a course of action or assumption is wrong but don't want to direct the scum as to how it is.

[armlx]

Fairly baseless = random.

Another strawman. You can't summarize someone else's argument in your own words and refute THAT point - you have to directly refute the point the post itself provides, or at least gain confirmation that that was the intent of the post, to make a refutation valid.

I summarized why his logic was extremely scummy. I did not summarize it in my own words. Nice try to attempt to use stereotypical logical fallicies to drive an attack.

That doesn't negate what the post I made says. That attempts to dismiss it without actually confronting anything else I said.

Sudden contradictions and changes in opinion are considered scummy as they are often opportunistic towards working the current scenario out in that player's favor.

[armlx]

Nice try USING those sterotypical logical fallacies yourself - I didn't use them, I pointed them out - you used them, and the fact that they're commonly used enough to be pointed out on the wiki does nothing to detract from the fact that they exist in your play.

You are the one mislabeling people's behavior here.

[armlx]

Another strawman. You can't summarize someone else's argument in your own words and refute THAT point - you have to directly refute the point the post itself provides, or at least gain confirmation that that was the intent of the post, to make a refutation valid.

Like I said. How is it a straw man if I am pointing out the reasons his plan is pro-scum?

[armlx]

A "Straw man" argument (also called "setting up a straw man") involves mischracterizing your opponent's position in order to present a weaker argument than they have actually given,

Again, how is what I was saying mischaracterizing his argument? I was outlining exactly why said plan was extremely pro-scum.

[armlx]

But that was what he was basically suggesting we do.....

[armlx]

He says we should form lists of who we think is scummy. He doesn't say we should post them or share them, so he doesn't suggest giving the cult leader info. He also doesn't suggest setting up lynches ahead of time - he says we should take behavioral notes and note changes in days to come.

I'm pretty sure he was implying sharing them.....

[armlx]

As I said, I think X needs a chance to clarify and defend his position.

Again, coming from the guy who attempted a hammer.

[armlx]

I notice you took the easy path again.

Agree. Unfortunately, this makes me suspect Xyzzy was a townie.

[armlx]

I notice you took the easy path again.

Agree. Unfortunately, this makes me suspect Xyzzy was a townie.

Why?

Your waffling the whole time he was on L-1 makes me feel you are scum debating whether they can get away with a hammer.

[armlx]

I still think IcemanE has been acting the most suspicious (though, unfortunately, this isn't saying much since the game is only a few pages long), but I will switch to xyzzy if it comes to it.

mod, can we get a vote count?

Actually, you should as

Can we get a lynch scene?

. Bogre was 4, iceman was 5.

[armlx]

Vote Iceman

What do you have to say for yourself here?

[armlx]

What do you have to say for yourself? Your vote was on X too, the 5 of us were wrong. X was the scummiest player yesterday and as a result was lynched. Luckily, he didn't use his shot, so we have another hunter out there.

Umm, way to not respond to 90% of the reasons everyone thought you were scummy yesterday? Your hammer on xyzzy was only the last of a long series of arguments.

[armlx]

Your level of OMGUS is about a 9 now Iceman.

[armlx]

Your points dont really stand as he still notes suspicion of darox.

[armlx]

How does that change anything? You're nitpicking. You simply can't see a response of mine stand unchallenged and so you have to come up with stuff like that.

My point is his posts aren't a complete 180 like you are saying. Even if they were, thats more indicative of a recruit then the DK.

Pants:

Hunter claims are bad as recruiting > NK.

[armlx]

Can you explain what this means? When did I say I thought he was the DK?

You didn't, I was merely making a point how a large shift in opinions could be indicative of an alignment shift.

Also, why are recruits better than NKs? I think the opposite. One more dead is one less suspect - and therefore one less person for the hunter to have to choose from when its time to shoot.

Hunter claims are bad because they automatically let the cult recruit every night, which is worse for us then them hitting the Hunter at night for the NK. Sorry if my abbreviated version of this was confusing.

[armlx]

So the lack of hammering tells us either all 3 of me, Darox, and Bogre are cult, or Iceman is the DK, as otherwise a cult member would have just hammered and moved the game into the AITP phase.

[armlx]

So the lack of hammering tells us either all 3 of me, Darox, and Bogre are cult, or Iceman is the DK

OK, there it is. Which of you is the DK? That's who I'd like to lynch.

unvote

You are. Thats the point.

[armlx]

If you lynch me today it'll be even harder for the hunter tomorrow because arm spread suspicion.

Hi, I'm an appeal to emotion that assumes I'm not cult.

[armlx]

How is it an appeal to emotion. I'm stating a fact, not saying "PWEEZ DON'T WYNCH ME!" And of course my posts are going to assume I'm not cult.

You are saying the equivalent of, in a normal game, "When I flip town we will go into L-1, so don't lynch me".

[armlx]

Err, LYLO.

[armlx]

I'm explaining why your "either the three of us are cult or iceman is the DK" statement is scummy and hurts the town's chances of picking the DK. Even if you don't see it as scummy it's certainly not protown.

You only are saying this because the prominent possibility I proposed is you are scum.

[armlx]

Do you deny that what you've said is scummy or not? You don't contest it - what you said is bad for the town, and scum are against the town.

How is it bad for the town to explain that the only alternative to you being the DK is a specific set of 3 players being cult? If you can explain this to me, I will admit my post did not help the town.

[armlx]

Because first of all, that statement is completely unfounded. Those are not the only two possibilities - there are any number of possible combinations, and the only way I can imagine you actually believing that those are the only two possibilities is if you, darox, and bogre actually are the three scum. Otherwise, there's no possible way you could know that those are the only two possibilities.

Again, if there was a scum off the wagon they would have hammered by now if you were not known scum to them, so I guess there is a 3rd possibility of the DK being off the wagon, you being a recruit, and them not wanting to bus.

[armlx]

Heh, phew, logically you had to be town.

Or DK. Which is what I said.

[armlx]

Ok, AITP phase. No one is to talk about anything game related. Just votes. If you try to discuss, you will be lynched for acting pro-town.

Vote Jaguar

[armlx]

No one is to vote anyone but me or Jaguar today. If the person who is lynched flips recruit, auto lynch the other tomorrow for obvious reasons.

[armlx]

Bump.

[armlx]

Why recruit Bogre N3 Awesome?

[armlx]

Ah, fair nuff.

I was the least likely to be the DK as a known cultist voted for me (Darox) and I had been so vocal all game.