Mini 573 - Darkstalkers Mafia - Game over!


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Post Post #17 (isolation #0) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 7:21 am

Post by armlx »

Vote: Alabaska J


Truely random voting does nothing to help the town at all.
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Post Post #20 (isolation #1) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 8:25 am

Post by armlx »

Ration wrote:
Vote: armlx

Voting someone for random voting does nothing to help the town at all.
Neither does truely randomized voting. Random voting based on completely irrelevant things means its actually based on something and can be a sign of something. Choosing random numbers means no info is gained from the vote.
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Post Post #22 (isolation #2) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 12:49 pm

Post by armlx »

What information can anyone draw from a randomized vote at any stage in the game?

If you can provide an answer, let me know. On the other hand, the "random" votes people throw around are often informative as they are based on some kind of bias.
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Post Post #33 (isolation #3) » Mon Mar 03, 2008 10:46 am

Post by armlx »

Those early "fireworks" and "semantics" are actually really good for producing relevant discussion, hence the purpose of the random voting stage. From them information is gleaned and logic begins to take hold (except when people who refuse to use logic in the first place are involved).

Also, that analogy is wrong. It implies true randomization of the votes is the right thing to do.
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Post Post #35 (isolation #4) » Mon Mar 03, 2008 1:20 pm

Post by armlx »

Alabaska J wrote: All joking aside, I'm saying that pure random voting can help protect you from being
the target
of said fireworks and semantics. Most of the time, anyway.
Scum tend to be more worried about being targeted than town. Much more so.
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Post Post #37 (isolation #5) » Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:37 pm

Post by armlx »

Alabaska J wrote:And yet the town's job first and foremost is to evade suspicion and survive to see another day. I'd much rather play it safe and not even be suspected.
A common misconception. The town's job is first and foremost to catch scum, and secondarily to not get lynched/die as it increases the odds of this.

I'm actually kind of wary of gorckat for following my vote, but only mildly so.
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Post Post #39 (isolation #6) » Mon Mar 03, 2008 5:09 pm

Post by armlx »

Your logic is correct, hence the mildly.
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Post Post #48 (isolation #7) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:06 am

Post by armlx »

RossWilliam wrote:random.org and dice-rolling is simply a cop-out. end of story
So far, this post is winning the thread.

Will those who have not posted please do so?
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Post Post #50 (isolation #8) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 10:44 am

Post by armlx »

Apparently, I missed Ranger and Piper's posts, despite the fact Piper voted. Everyone has posted.

My bad.
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Post Post #65 (isolation #9) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 5:15 pm

Post by armlx »

gorckat wrote:I'm curious why armlx didn't find Al mildly suspicious for saying he believes townies should first and foremost not be suspect (something armlx disagrees with) but finds me mildly suspect for agreeing with his stance against random voting.
Notice my vote is still on Alabaska.

The part I was kinda suspect on was the fact you post looked a lot like "I agree with a logical pg 1 post, wagon X". However, given more background, it turns out I am wrong and you legitimately agree.

RotN, post please (assuming what ooba says is true)
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Post Post #78 (isolation #10) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 5:33 pm

Post by armlx »

I whole heartedly agree. Ranger has been Mish-Mashing a heck of a lot since his last post too.

Moving past teaching game lessons.

Unvote, Vote Ranger


Post.
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Post Post #84 (isolation #11) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 12:16 pm

Post by armlx »

Yeah, this one of the big issues. The answer is he does, but he specifically cited the day start in this game as his reason not to.

My vote on him stands until he posts real content, btw.
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Post Post #88 (isolation #12) » Thu Mar 06, 2008 1:29 pm

Post by armlx »

Yes they do.

Frown

Town.

Did it.
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Post Post #93 (isolation #13) » Fri Mar 07, 2008 5:42 am

Post by armlx »

Anyone else enjoy the irony of RotN's first post? He claims D1 day start lynches are based on someone doing something annoying, and there he goes and decides to be that person and not contribute.
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Post Post #95 (isolation #14) » Fri Mar 07, 2008 6:01 am

Post by armlx »

RotN is only worth lynching if he decides not to post (at least based on the current wagon).

gorckat: I feel his first post made it very clear he was trying to avoid D1.
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Post Post #99 (isolation #15) » Fri Mar 07, 2008 7:33 am

Post by armlx »

Unvote


As I said.
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Post Post #107 (isolation #16) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:40 am

Post by armlx »

Sorry for not posting. This just sorta drifted down my watched topics list until I didn't check it.
gorckat wrote:@Al: Wishy-washy. much?
I agree. Strike my last vote, reverse it.

Vote Alabaska J


BTW, those 2 accusations are more or less the same Al. Your backtracking does not amuse me.
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Post Post #124 (isolation #17) » Thu Mar 13, 2008 3:37 am

Post by armlx »

Rogueben wrote:
armix
armix wrote:RotN is only worth lynching if he decides not to post (at least based on the current wagon).
Hmm. I don't like this. Better off asking for him to be replaced, lynching someone with no posts is not very beneficial for the future.
This comment wasn't phrased the best. What I meant was if Ranger showed back up and kept with the "Screw this, hate day starts, not posting" he should be considered for a lynch. Not if he just doesn't post and legitimately needs replacement.
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Post Post #129 (isolation #18) » Fri Mar 14, 2008 5:22 am

Post by armlx »

Meh, nothing has changed. Feels like Alabaska is scum who sorta dropped the ball on this game and is trying to get out of the hole by shirking attention based on bad arguments at this point.

You were out of it until the OMGUS vote, I'll give you that much.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #19) » Mon Mar 17, 2008 4:39 am

Post by armlx »

Alabaska: Below the quick reply box is a pull down menu.
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Post Post #141 (isolation #20) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:33 am

Post by armlx »

Rogueben wrote:
Mod: Can you prod Sir Tornado and DeanWinchester


If Dean does not post in the next couple of days I will seriously consider
voting
having someone replace
him.
Fixed,
FOS Rogueben
for suggesting we do the mod's job for him.
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Post Post #142 (isolation #21) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 1:34 am

Post by armlx »

(same applies to Gorckat)
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Post Post #144 (isolation #22) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:54 am

Post by armlx »

Prods are good.

Suggesting we lynch people who don't respond to prods is not.

Asking the mod to confirm someone picking up their prod, then if they aren't replaced and refuse to post proceeding to vote them is much better.
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Post Post #149 (isolation #23) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:29 am

Post by armlx »

Alabaska: Yeah, I do have an account there. I actually started playing mafia there then moved here as the games spawn 1ce in a never.
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Post Post #152 (isolation #24) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:51 am

Post by armlx »

Still happy with my vote.

Sir Tornado and Dean fall in the mod's territory for now guys. Once they post again then you should jump on them.
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Post Post #157 (isolation #25) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 2:19 pm

Post by armlx »

Posting questions in rhyming couplets is scientifically proven to decrease the odds of their answer.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #26) » Fri Mar 21, 2008 7:01 am

Post by armlx »

Claus wrote: Gorkcat, Armix, Alabaska: What do you think of the headbutting between Spring and DP?
To put it quite frankly, I don't right now. Once one of them dies it could be useful, but for now drawing any conclusions from it seems iffy at best, except maybe to see who falls on whose side of the argument.

I agree with the attacks on Ghostwriter though. I'll give him a post to respond to them before making any further decisions.
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Post Post #198 (isolation #27) » Sat Mar 22, 2008 7:24 am

Post by armlx »

I don't like the first half of GW's responses, but the second half seems good. Still moderately scummy, but there's bigger fish to fry.

The contradiction Ooba brought up makes me more happy with my vote on Al.

Ooba:

The difference between Sir T / Dean and RotN was that RotN's first post was him explicitly stating he didn't want to post. The other two simply weren't in the game at that point. This may have been more evident to me as I am modding a game Sir T was in and wasn't posting in and am in another game where Dean is doing the same thing.

In addition, after the deal with RotN, some mafia discussion threads and a couple games I am in now (including this one) caused me to reevaluate my stance on attacking lurkers.
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Post Post #206 (isolation #28) » Sun Mar 23, 2008 12:37 pm

Post by armlx »

Claus wrote: - Armix: "who falls on whose side of the argument" - that's kind of what I was aiming for.
Can you elaborate? I'm fairly sure my answer is "Anyone who sides in that argument in a relevant manner is scummy for pushing a dumb issue beyond 2 tunnel visioned players" if I understand it right.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #29) » Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:43 am

Post by armlx »

And then you attack Dean for the same faulty reasonings? Claus was just pointing it out but felt the case was a null tell and attacking Dean for it in itself was scummy. I
m starting to think Gorckat is bussing Al scum.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #30) » Mon Mar 24, 2008 6:44 am

Post by armlx »

Sorry, I'm confusing this game with another involving Dean where the same thing has occurred.

The difference between Dean and GW is Dean simply doesn't post (and does this in other games) where as GW is posting just enough to look like he is here.
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Post Post #217 (isolation #31) » Mon Mar 24, 2008 5:21 pm

Post by armlx »

RossWilliam wrote:Even though he seems to contradict it once in a while, i get the sense that alabaska is just clumsy, possibly newb, town.
Thank you for this comment. If Al ends up being revealed as scum at some later point (possibly today), you are extremely suspect.

L-2. Standard warning that anyone who votes Al from here until after he defends himself further is very suspect, and that anyone who ends up lhammering him between him making a full defense and claiming is even more suspect.
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Post Post #221 (isolation #32) » Tue Mar 25, 2008 7:52 am

Post by armlx »

Rogueben wrote: Does anyone have a meta on Dean? Does he play like this regardless of alignment?
Like I said, I got games confused as he is doing the same in another game atm. No confirmed alignments yet though.
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Post Post #224 (isolation #33) » Tue Mar 25, 2008 8:33 am

Post by armlx »

Gorckat:

On Ross: The slip has been made. He can't retract it. Pointing it out merely puts him on the radar of everyone.

The heads up is because I would rather have a legitimate discussion about the lynch of a player than a quick lynch most likely resulting in another quick lynch of someone who was possibly just being dumb. Quick lynches typically just cause things to spiral out of control for no reason.

Your stance on claims is very interesting. Confirmable roles do exist you know, and while I wouldn't immediately back off a non-confirmable power claim, its a legitimate thing to consider in a lynch.
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Post Post #235 (isolation #34) » Tue Mar 25, 2008 5:34 pm

Post by armlx »

Alabaska J wrote:First of all, I believe everyone has power roles in this game, if I'm not mistaken.
I seem to remember seeing this somewhere for one of my games. It may have been this one. Anyone have a quote for this from DR?
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Post Post #239 (isolation #35) » Wed Mar 26, 2008 3:15 am

Post by armlx »

gorckat wrote:It was worth a shot, at least, to see if he might claim vanilla. I think DR also mentioned it in the mini theme sign-up thread (or he linked me to that post).
Fair enough. I had forgotten about that.
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Post Post #244 (isolation #36) » Fri Mar 28, 2008 4:14 am

Post by armlx »

GW, asking character names in theme games is not typically assumed to be role name quoting.

Personally, I'm really sketchy with the SK only cop claim. I'm just as inclined to think he is the SK.
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Post Post #249 (isolation #37) » Sat Mar 29, 2008 4:08 am

Post by armlx »

Claus: The warning post was simply to prevent people from being dumb and quick lynching. Tomorrow I won't care where people fell on the wagon when looking back, but by saying that I deter idiots from causing confusion, as I've found quick lynchers are more often just dumb people than scum.
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Post Post #256 (isolation #38) » Sat Mar 29, 2008 5:38 pm

Post by armlx »

I'm very skeptical of the fact he knows the SK's name.
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Post Post #260 (isolation #39) » Sun Mar 30, 2008 5:20 am

Post by armlx »

Ok, so he drops.

Name A of probably town person.

Has to "ask the mod" if he can claim the other name.

Drops name be of probably scum person.

Anyone feel like he's using a safe claim here?
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Post Post #271 (isolation #40) » Sun Mar 30, 2008 2:54 pm

Post by armlx »

Unless someone with game knowledge tells me that is all flavorful with the game, my instincts say lies. Especially the succubi talking to dead people thing seems awk from what I know.
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Post Post #273 (isolation #41) » Sun Mar 30, 2008 3:05 pm

Post by armlx »

And the part where he isn't assured results....
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Post Post #276 (isolation #42) » Sun Mar 30, 2008 3:13 pm

Post by armlx »

Claus, the option I always was assuming was he was an SK with a safeclaim. Especially because he specified SK only cop.

Second the extension.
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Post Post #282 (isolation #43) » Sun Mar 30, 2008 4:56 pm

Post by armlx »

That attack is moderately disturbing in a very Monty Python way.
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Post Post #286 (isolation #44) » Mon Mar 31, 2008 4:42 am

Post by armlx »

DP: The reasoning is there are many reasons he could know there is an SK (being one), much more room to assume there is one, and there is no way to prove his role (well no realistic way. I guess if he's telling the truth and gets a guilty tomorrow, and the lynch turns up SK, but thats what, 1/11?)
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Post Post #290 (isolation #45) » Mon Mar 31, 2008 6:42 am

Post by armlx »

While I am not changing my vote, my second choice would be RossWilliam for siding the strongest in the DP/SL issue.
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Post Post #294 (isolation #46) » Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:43 pm

Post by armlx »

Alabaska: Inserting jokes into role claims is not a good way to make people confident you are telling the truth.

However, with that the flavor makes sense, leaving me with only my suspicion that you are lying.

Wait.

What rank are you. I knew something was missing in your claim.
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Post Post #297 (isolation #47) » Mon Mar 31, 2008 3:30 pm

Post by armlx »

GW basically said everything. I guess in theory the mod could have made roles classes based on their role power level, but I doubt it.
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Post Post #300 (isolation #48) » Mon Mar 31, 2008 4:32 pm

Post by armlx »

springlullaby wrote: If you find the omission in itself to be suspicious, surely there was no reason to ask his rank at all since the omission was already there?
Rather ask and force the slip up rather than let him later say "You never asked me it, didn't think it was relevant" when it is argued against him later.

Also, I think your argument about the information being used to inform decisions against him is pretty bad. That is, unless you have information about those actions that would say otherwise...
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Post Post #306 (isolation #49) » Mon Mar 31, 2008 7:55 pm

Post by armlx »

Claus: I think he was insinuating my asking for his rank was me fishing to see if I could use a hypothetical power on him.

I also agree freely talking about ranks is bad, but this scenario was hardly talking freely. In retrospect if I had not specifically asked about the thing his claim was missing (rank) he would have been more likely to slip up, but at the time I was much more worried about him trying to slip back out of a slip up by claiming he had never been asked about it.
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Post Post #311 (isolation #50) » Tue Apr 01, 2008 8:43 pm

Post by armlx »

springlullaby wrote:
armlx wrote: Claus: I think he was insinuating my asking for his rank was me fishing to see if I could use a hypothetical power on him.

I also agree freely talking about ranks is bad, but this scenario was hardly talking freely. In retrospect if I had not specifically asked about the thing his claim was missing (rank) he would have been more likely to slip up, but at the time I was much more worried about him trying to slip back out of a slip up by claiming he had never been asked about it.
armlx, I wasn't implying anything, I stated it quite clearly.
You were implying something: that I had a negative action that depended on his rank. I never disagreed that actions could depend on his rank, just said that there was no evidence to support that negative actions were affected this way more than potential beneficial actions or at all (note: I define beneficial as any pro-town action on him, including vig/rb's).
Tell me, what other informations need I know 'about those actions'?
Also, is there any reason you care to dig for role information here?
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Post Post #314 (isolation #51) » Wed Apr 02, 2008 10:05 am

Post by armlx »

IDK at this point. The whole point of my asking was to instigate a slip up, which has been negated.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #52) » Thu Apr 03, 2008 7:24 pm

Post by armlx »

Not really. My post was implying you had info that scum actions were affected by the target's rank aka you were scum.

Also, as an afterthought? I looked at my role, realized what was missing from his claim, and asked.
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Post Post #320 (isolation #53) » Fri Apr 04, 2008 3:35 pm

Post by armlx »

Bump, with deadline soon and all. I also don't think DP is at all a good lynch choice today and should not even be in the duel.
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Post Post #342 (isolation #54) » Mon Apr 07, 2008 6:53 am

Post by armlx »

Spring, clearly you are interpreting my posts in a tunnel visioned fashion. The only reason I had to ask for the rank claim is a slip up, and all my discussion on it was to refute your idea that revealing rank in that scenario would just give the scum information.

Frankly, I don't trust AJ's claim at all and believe he is the SK using a safe claim. Thats why I'm voting him.
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Post Post #349 (isolation #55) » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:45 pm

Post by armlx »

I find it really sad we are resorting to a default lynch.
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Post Post #352 (isolation #56) » Mon Apr 07, 2008 4:22 pm

Post by armlx »

Flameaxe wrote:
armlx wrote:I find it really sad we are resorting to a default lynch.
Well said.
I'm actually 100% sure this is the first time I've actually seen this happen. Every other time I have lynched BabyJ/Rosso/other default lynch it's because they did other scummy stuff beyond the norm.
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Post Post #363 (isolation #57) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:56 am

Post by armlx »

armlx wrote:While I am not changing my vote, my second choice would be RossWilliam for siding the strongest in the DP/SL issue.
This post still stands, though I hate voting people who just replaced in.
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Post Post #369 (isolation #58) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 7:20 am

Post by armlx »

I'm not really seeing this connection you guys are citing as being that strong to lynch RB over RW. I think you are doing this in the reverse order; lynching the less scummy of the pair in order to indite the more scummy seems wrong.
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Post Post #372 (isolation #59) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 10:19 am

Post by armlx »

This is a forewarning post. I put the estimated value of a RB lynch at slightly higher then a random choice between the 4 currently tied. I value a RB lynch less than a random between xtoxm, him, and AJ. I also have to leave soon. If no one has done something to change the estimated value of the tie in my eyes (ie remove DP from the tie, replace anyone but Alabaska with RossWilliam) in the next 15 minutes, I will vote RB.
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Post Post #374 (isolation #60) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 10:24 am

Post by armlx »

Wait, never mind my past post. I just realize the time stamps on posts in the forum are 1 hour earlier then actual time for me, so I will be back on with about half an hour to go till dead line.
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Post Post #375 (isolation #61) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 10:24 am

Post by armlx »

(~11:30 EST Alabaska).
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Post Post #377 (isolation #62) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 10:30 am

Post by armlx »

Did you just QFT your own vote count. I'm confused.

Also, are there actually 3 not voting???
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Post Post #384 (isolation #63) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 4:06 pm

Post by armlx »

Rogueben, if you are on, a claim may do something.
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Post Post #396 (isolation #64) » Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:38 pm

Post by armlx »

Waiting for Force to post as per yesterday.
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Post Post #398 (isolation #65) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:31 am

Post by armlx »

gorckat wrote:
Xtoxm wrote:Sorry about my lack of activity since replacing in. Shortly after I replaced in I was V/LA for a short while, and when I got back it was night.

I will read the thread and post opinions.
So what did you base your night choice on?
Nice fishing sir.
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Post Post #400 (isolation #66) » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:17 am

Post by armlx »

You are confusing everyone being non-vanilla with everyone having a night action. Don't be Blackberry.
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Post Post #415 (isolation #67) » Sat Apr 19, 2008 6:44 pm

Post by armlx »

Xtoxm wrote: Alternatively, I can just not read and just try to gradually come in.
Alternatively, you can read and create realistic opinions to respond to the growing case on you.
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Post Post #420 (isolation #68) » Sun Apr 20, 2008 10:05 am

Post by armlx »

Upon rereading Axe's posts, I agree with xtoxm. This is not townAxe.

Also, my RB FOS wasn't for him asking for prods. He wanted to pressure the lurkers with votes, rather then just letting the mod deal with it where it was needed. His plan just leads to default lynching, which you can always do better than.
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Post Post #422 (isolation #69) » Sun Apr 20, 2008 10:29 am

Post by armlx »

Thats just not town you from what I have seen in the past.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #70) » Sun Apr 20, 2008 10:38 am

Post by armlx »

Responses are holding the course with my expectations.

Vote Flameaxe
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Post Post #426 (isolation #71) » Sun Apr 20, 2008 10:48 am

Post by armlx »

My examples are pretty much ongoing, so citing is mildly awkward.
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Post Post #428 (isolation #72) » Sun Apr 20, 2008 10:56 am

Post by armlx »

Forgot about AITP2. Thats a good example of town you, which is distinctly different from this game.
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Post Post #430 (isolation #73) » Sun Apr 20, 2008 11:10 am

Post by armlx »

Flameaxe wrote:
armlx wrote:Forgot about AITP2. Thats a good example of town you, which is distinctly different from this game.
AITP2 is hardly a good example of someone's town play. Town in AITP compared to "standard" mafia is completely different, try again.
Only in some aspects, and those aspects are not the ones I'm comparing.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #74) » Sun Apr 20, 2008 11:16 am

Post by armlx »

Ha, solved the puzzle.

As town, your posts are either A) jovial or B) straight talk. Not C) sarcastic and snide.
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Post Post #444 (isolation #75) » Sun Apr 20, 2008 4:18 pm

Post by armlx »

This explosion is not what I would expect from townAxe. I would expect some reaction, but not to this degree.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #76) » Tue Apr 22, 2008 6:21 pm

Post by armlx »

gorckat wrote:It would be helpful to do so in the future, to ferret out anything like a scum-aligned RB lacking a better target.
? Lacking a better target then someone who is confirmed to not have a night ability? That doesn't make sense.

Only thing targetting could do is be confirmable potentially by a watcher or get PGO'ed, but the later is bastard moddery so you should just target someone every night, preferably someone you would expect to be watched.
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Post Post #474 (isolation #77) » Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:47 am

Post by armlx »

So in that scenario you trade doc for scum?

Not a fan....
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Post Post #476 (isolation #78) » Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:33 am

Post by armlx »

You mean "Worst scum who got the bitch job of being sent for the kill"?
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Post Post #485 (isolation #79) » Thu Apr 24, 2008 12:20 pm

Post by armlx »

Still happy with my read on Flameaxe, but I also want to hear from Opposed Force.
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Post Post #488 (isolation #80) » Thu Apr 24, 2008 12:25 pm

Post by armlx »

I don't feel AITP should be disqualified in the slightest. My other examples are scum chat, so I can't really link....
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Post Post #490 (isolation #81) » Thu Apr 24, 2008 12:31 pm

Post by armlx »

Definitely have scum chatted with you. My memory of the specifics is mildly fuzzy, but I seem to remember you being scum role cop and blowing up similarly, as well as acting similarily to this game before hand.
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Post Post #492 (isolation #82) » Thu Apr 24, 2008 12:36 pm

Post by armlx »

I distinctly remember as town lynching you FTW when you claimed role cop after you blew up D1 or D2 when pressured.
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Post Post #497 (isolation #83) » Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:56 pm

Post by armlx »

Quite frankly, I have nothing but my meta-read on him, but I am very sure it is correct.
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Post Post #500 (isolation #84) » Sat Apr 26, 2008 8:23 am

Post by armlx »

Quite frankly through all of D1 we pretty much saw the same things as scummy and did the same things. I can't say I find any of it scummy. Its just slight meta things like his throwing in of the self vote then unvoting and revoting in the same post and his general style after he replaced in that make me sure he is scum this game.
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Post Post #502 (isolation #85) » Sat Apr 26, 2008 10:13 am

Post by armlx »

People don't have to choose to believe me now, but I know I am right and at the least it can/will be relevant later.
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Post Post #504 (isolation #86) » Sat Apr 26, 2008 8:14 pm

Post by armlx »

If/when Opposed Force responds I might consider moving my vote to there depending how scummy he sounds, but for now I am keeping my vote on the person I find most likely to be scum.
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Post Post #518 (isolation #87) » Sun Apr 27, 2008 5:33 pm

Post by armlx »

My vote is not solely based on one game, just on 1 non-ongoing game.
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Post Post #529 (isolation #88) » Thu May 01, 2008 11:42 am

Post by armlx »

L-2. I'll give 24 hours for more people to chime in, namely DP, then I'm expecting a claim.
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Post Post #545 (isolation #89) » Sat May 03, 2008 5:49 pm

Post by armlx »

SL has dropped off in posting and been prodded in my other games with her as well. Prod seconded.
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Post Post #547 (isolation #90) » Sat May 03, 2008 6:34 pm

Post by armlx »

SL hasn't posted on the site in a week, Opposed force hasn't posted on the site since APril 18th. I think we can replace Opposed Force at the least.
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Post Post #551 (isolation #91) » Sun May 04, 2008 3:33 pm

Post by armlx »

Third the prod/replace requests.
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Post Post #553 (isolation #92) » Sun May 04, 2008 4:16 pm

Post by armlx »

xtoxm has been posting elsewhere, no clue whats up with this game.
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Post Post #557 (isolation #93) » Mon May 05, 2008 12:18 pm

Post by armlx »

Oh yeah, forgot about that one.
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Post Post #565 (isolation #94) » Tue May 06, 2008 10:42 am

Post by armlx »

Drunken Piper wrote:
Flameaxe wrote:
springlullaby wrote:Hi, sorry, been busy.

I haven't reread yet, but here is what I had up my sleeve.

I have the following informations to disclose:
1) There is cult in this game.
2) There is also a mafia.

That's all for now :)
I don't see why you're smiling. That isn't all for now. Get on it.
QFT..
QFT as well.
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Post Post #568 (isolation #95) » Tue May 06, 2008 1:06 pm

Post by armlx »

The QFT's were us wanting more considering you just jumped in here and said all these things.
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Post Post #572 (isolation #96) » Wed May 07, 2008 1:27 am

Post by armlx »

I say nay on the mass role claim. Again, with the whole Gorrad thing I stated, non-vanilla != possibly confirmable night action, it also includes non-action roles with abilities ie. miller, bullet-proof, etc, so I highly doubt everyone is confirmable. Even then, testing confirmability in a cult setting leads to awkward scenarios where the cult has perfect information with which to make their decision as to allow their ability to be "confirmed" or to ensure they aren't caught or what not. Its just awkward all around, even more so then mass claiming vs a mafia group.
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Post Post #573 (isolation #97) » Wed May 07, 2008 1:29 am

Post by armlx »

EBWODP: Thinking about it, if we had both a mafia and cult, mass claiming would be a lot different as presumably mafia can't be recruited, and would want to kill some of the cult roles. It would let us play the scum groups off of each other a little I guess. Still not worth doing most likely though.
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Post Post #575 (isolation #98) » Wed May 07, 2008 1:53 pm

Post by armlx »

Err, gorckat, not Gorrad. Confusing names and what not, was referring to when gorckat asked xtoxm his night choice, i called fishing, he called reading the rules, and I called him Blackberry.

As for mafia, I'm pretty unsure on it, but I'm leaning yes just for balance issues without making infi town unrecruitables.
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Post Post #580 (isolation #99) » Thu May 08, 2008 6:15 pm

Post by armlx »

I think theres a mafia. Maybe not a 3 person one, but I definitely think there is one.
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Post Post #583 (isolation #100) » Fri May 09, 2008 8:13 am

Post by armlx »

gorckat wrote: Two people targeted Al night one, FWIW.
I'm putting money on those 2 people being doc + cult leader, and I'm assuming you know the names. I'm trying to do the math to see if revealing those names and lynching one is the best plan, as the mafia (or vig, if thats the killing group we are seeing) are sure to kill the other as its the biggest threat to them regardless of which lives.

Ok, so 10 alive, 2 cult, 2-3 mafia, 5-6 town. Reveal, if CL is lynched and we go to day its

1 cult, 2-3 mafia, 4-5 town. Still majority as recruit is aiming to kill scum too.

If doc is lynched.

2 cult, 2-3 mafia, 3-4 town. Still majority again, thought very likely to lose to either scum group.

Other options include a failed recruit somewhere in there, town vig shooting as it doesn't increase the game clock, RBing the mafia kill, but this is the simplest scenario.

Opinions on what gorckat should do?
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Post Post #585 (isolation #101) » Fri May 09, 2008 8:17 am

Post by armlx »

you weren't supposed to say that. Now you are the auto-cult recruit tonight if you don't reveal.
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Post Post #586 (isolation #102) » Fri May 09, 2008 8:19 am

Post by armlx »

I'm pro-reveal based on that math btw, but please don't do so until everyone has commented on other possible scenarios.
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Post Post #588 (isolation #103) » Fri May 09, 2008 7:08 pm

Post by armlx »

With a cult a 2 man mafia and sk, thats 4/12 scum ration which is standard, so it does make sense setup wise.
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Post Post #590 (isolation #104) » Fri May 09, 2008 7:58 pm

Post by armlx »

Also would like to point out that Gorckat is almost certainly not mafia now as no mafia would do something like this especially with a cult running around. However, if he reveals and the person we lynch doesn't appear to be someone who targetted Al, I think everyone, specifically the mafia, has to assume Gorckat is a lying recruit and aim elsewhere for the leader.
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Post Post #592 (isolation #105) » Fri May 09, 2008 8:16 pm

Post by armlx »

There's also a lot of room for crosskills, failed recruits (3, and I'm assuming SL is somehow), and with 0 vanilla's town power to come into effect in that set up as well, and though it is swingy any game with no vanillas will be swingy by default.
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Post Post #598 (isolation #106) » Sat May 10, 2008 6:03 am

Post by armlx »

Well shit, this is awkward considering the other person isn't even here to respond.
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Post Post #601 (isolation #107) » Sat May 10, 2008 7:40 am

Post by armlx »

I was thinking more likely SL was told she was unrecruitable. Either way, I don't think thats the answer as I believe Claus as well and OF is going to be the lynch today barring extremely odd circumstances.
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Post Post #603 (isolation #108) » Sat May 10, 2008 7:49 am

Post by armlx »

Doubt it, as that would mean Claus was lying and obv scum of some variety and is better off vigged/lynched and if SL is cop she can spend time looking for the recruit instead.

Again, the above scenario seems unlikely.
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Post Post #605 (isolation #109) » Sat May 10, 2008 8:03 am

Post by armlx »

Alabaska J wrote:Oh yeah I forgot about vigs. Doubt we have any, though.
Thats probably true. The mafia will probably also kill Claus if he is lying as living cults vs. mafia = awkward for mafia.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #110) » Sat May 10, 2008 7:30 pm

Post by armlx »

Claus wrote:
Mod
: Given that whatever Opposed Force tells us will be important, and will likely have to be discussed in detail, can we have a deadline extension for 1 week after the replacement arrives?
2nd.
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Post Post #614 (isolation #111) » Sun May 11, 2008 8:01 am

Post by armlx »

Xtoxm wrote:From what I glanced at, tbh, I think OF is scum. Who has need to target a cleared SK cop other than a doc protetion...?
Yeah, thats pretty much where everyone is at. Just waiting to see if something interesting happens when OF shows up.
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Post Post #616 (isolation #112) » Sun May 11, 2008 9:48 am

Post by armlx »

A replacement will at the least.
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Post Post #619 (isolation #113) » Sun May 11, 2008 11:10 am

Post by armlx »

Monika, please claim your role and who you targetted last night. You will still most likely be lynched regardless based on the info we have, sorry you replaced into such an awkward scenario.
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Post Post #621 (isolation #114) » Sun May 11, 2008 11:33 am

Post by armlx »

Jailkeeper is the exact term for your claimed role.

I didn't trust RW or OF, so I'm going to have to err on the side of Mokina lying here.

Unvote, Vote Mokina
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Post Post #627 (isolation #115) » Sun May 11, 2008 12:36 pm

Post by armlx »

This seems pretty clear cut. As I said, Claus is more town so far soo.......
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Post Post #629 (isolation #116) » Sun May 11, 2008 12:50 pm

Post by armlx »

What the hell is going on.

Unvote
.
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Post Post #639 (isolation #117) » Sun May 11, 2008 1:35 pm

Post by armlx »

I agree one is lying. I've just been thinking it over.

Issues at hand:

RW being v. scummy.

Claus confirming Mokina as town.

The later means that if Claus = town, Monika = town, which is mutually exclusive with 1 is lying. Therefore

Vote Claus
.
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Post Post #643 (isolation #118) » Sun May 11, 2008 1:38 pm

Post by armlx »

I could get behind a name reveal. The only name-> ability major correlation so far was the SK.
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Post Post #651 (isolation #119) » Sun May 11, 2008 1:54 pm

Post by armlx »

Claus wrote:Armlx - if me or Mokina were lying, what would you think the liar actually is?
You, based on the situation I posted earlier. Mokina has acted scummier, but your post about the same flavor made it so you couldn't be town as she would be too.

You also wouldn't think 1 is lying as keeping that possibility active is your only way to live as scum.

I believe you are cult leader, though there is a possibility of mafia with a vig around.

I have evidence that there is a mafia that I'd rather not reveal right now. I also had reason to suspect Al was lying, hence my trying to get him to slip up.
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Post Post #654 (isolation #120) » Sun May 11, 2008 2:00 pm

Post by armlx »

If you are either variety of scum, explain how Mokina can be scum with a still living Alabaska. Thats how you confirm her. Either way you flop, she is town unless she mised into saying the exact right thing to get you to confirm her, which is near impossible.

I'm leaning cult on you Claus, as scum targetting Al would have assumed they were walking into a block.
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Post Post #659 (isolation #121) » Sun May 11, 2008 2:05 pm

Post by armlx »

Claus wrote: Lynch Alabaska (both me and mokina said we don't know if we can protect against culting). Have me and Mokina target each other tonight.
I'm wary of this if only because of the different definitions of jailkeeper.
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Post Post #664 (isolation #122) » Sun May 11, 2008 3:15 pm

Post by armlx »

NL is a bad option. Rather reveal my info then NL.
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Post Post #668 (isolation #123) » Sun May 11, 2008 3:48 pm

Post by armlx »

Fuck it, may as well just say it at this rate. I'll be dead/culted tonight if I don't.

I'm John Talbain, a cop. No specific faction here, which is why I was still suspect of Alabaska post claim yesterday. I have a guilty on Drunken Piper. I debated leaving some kind of bread crumb somewhere but figured I wasn't a high profile kill for the mafia and could afford to not do that rather then have the scum notice and act on it. I was hoping DP would help fuel my suspicions of Flameaxe in some way as well, but that obviously didn't happen.

I was pretty sure of a mafia based on the ambiguity of my role PM as to what alignment I find (just anti-town, not cult/mafia/sk) and even more so once the info was revealed from Gorckat.

And with that,
Unvote, Vote DP
. I guess cross-blocking is fine as I can assume both resolve in the same layer.
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Post Post #670 (isolation #124) » Sun May 11, 2008 4:35 pm

Post by armlx »

Hmm, time to debate over whether the word of a claimed mafia member is trustable.
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Post Post #671 (isolation #125) » Sun May 11, 2008 4:38 pm

Post by armlx »

Ok, DP is the right lynch. He could be lying CL. If he shows scum, Claus gets jailkept and stopped from doing anything.
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Post Post #672 (isolation #126) » Sun May 11, 2008 4:42 pm

Post by armlx »

EBWODP: Scum = mafia in my last post BTW.
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Post Post #675 (isolation #127) » Sun May 11, 2008 4:52 pm

Post by armlx »

You are confirmed scum and could be lying, and they won't roam free if Claus is cult b/c he is blocked by Mok again.
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Post Post #677 (isolation #128) » Sun May 11, 2008 5:02 pm

Post by armlx »

This is interesting in context of the whole DP-SL thing yesterday as Claus (well RossWilliam) was the one who took a side, but I was wrong about neither being scum of SL-DP.
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Post Post #683 (isolation #129) » Sun May 11, 2008 5:47 pm

Post by armlx »

Mokina wrote: Meanwhile, the scum make two nightkills. Slightly worrisome.
Assuming both lynches are correct, its a 1 cult, 3 town, 2 mafia scenario maximum, more likely 1 cult, 4 town, 1 mafia as quite frankly 5 scum one of which is a cult is excessive. Both of those are winning situations.
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Post Post #687 (isolation #130) » Sun May 11, 2008 6:05 pm

Post by armlx »

Your scenario is pretty worst case of me being scum, etc. Obviously when it gets to that point you consider other things (and BTW 3-1 scenario is always a no lynch).
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Post Post #690 (isolation #131) » Sun May 11, 2008 6:08 pm

Post by armlx »

I can agree with not sucking up jailkeeps, I'm pretty useless jailkept anyways.
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Post Post #696 (isolation #132) » Sun May 11, 2008 6:24 pm

Post by armlx »

Claus wrote:
armlx wrote:DP-SL thing yesterday as Claus (well RossWilliam) was the one who took a side.
Are you reading it right? I replaced SirT, not RossWilliam.
Hmm, I am indeed. Thats even more interesting, if only because I was actually 100% wrong.
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Post Post #698 (isolation #133) » Sun May 11, 2008 6:46 pm

Post by armlx »

Hmm, DP may have inadvertently revealed something about one of the jail keeps by saying the mafia had a jailkeep safe claim. Not worth worrying about it now though, something to consider later.
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Post Post #702 (isolation #134) » Sun May 11, 2008 6:57 pm

Post by armlx »

The issue is that if its Claus false claiming there DP calling him out as CL would be one of the dumbest things possible. That would imply you as a mafia buddy of DP who was trying to fuck up our jailkeeping. Then layers of WIFOM get involved along with outguessing the mod about giving 2 scum groups similar safe claims and......

See, thats why I said consider it later. I want to know if DP is actually mafia before moving along this train of thought.
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Post Post #705 (isolation #135) » Sun May 11, 2008 7:04 pm

Post by armlx »

I know. Like I said, I want to wait as long as possible and get as much info before breaking WIFOMs like this where its setup by a known scum outside the WIFOM.
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Post Post #711 (isolation #136) » Mon May 12, 2008 1:28 am

Post by armlx »

Claus wrote:
armlx wrote:Fuck it, may as well just say it at this rate. I'll be dead/culted tonight if I don't.

I'm John Talbain, a cop. No specific faction here, which is why I was still suspect of Alabaska post claim yesterday.
In case you get culted/killed tomorrow, do you have any extra info you want to share with us about your role?

- Any flavor;
- How certain you are of sanity;

etc?
No really relevant flavor (John Talbain blah blah lineage of noble warriors blah blah wolf senses etc.), and as for sanity my PM gives me no reason to confirm/doubt it but the presence of at least one other cop makes me wonder always.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #137) » Mon May 12, 2008 11:20 am

Post by armlx »

Another dilemma to consider: DP said the scum had 2 safe claims. I doubt # safe claims < number of scum so...
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Post Post #731 (isolation #138) » Mon May 12, 2008 4:46 pm

Post by armlx »

Alabaska, he has no interest to continue discussion, so he would self lynch.

Claus, my point was he indicated a 2 person group not a 3 person, which can help math wise.
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Post Post #734 (isolation #139) » Mon May 12, 2008 4:50 pm

Post by armlx »

Yeah, just saying that helps confirm that.
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Post Post #735 (isolation #140) » Mon May 12, 2008 4:51 pm

Post by armlx »

Also agree on the CKD > DP.
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Post Post #737 (isolation #141) » Mon May 12, 2008 6:02 pm

Post by armlx »

Poetry bogs things down and makes your arguments less comprehensible and they hold less weight just based on how they don't look proper.
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Post Post #747 (isolation #142) » Tue May 20, 2008 3:52 pm

Post by armlx »

Bah, investigated BBM last night to double check if what I thought was true was. Obviously, he turned up town.
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Post Post #749 (isolation #143) » Tue May 20, 2008 5:13 pm

Post by armlx »

Claus, I assume you targeted Monika and Monika, visa versa?
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Post Post #755 (isolation #144) » Wed May 21, 2008 1:33 am

Post by armlx »

Monika can answer first, sure, as I think I already know the answer.

Hmm, xtoxm != stalker is pretty good stuff though.
Vote xtoxm
, though lets not quick lynch here. There are definitely things to discuss.
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Post Post #779 (isolation #145) » Wed May 21, 2008 10:56 am

Post by armlx »

Mokina wrote:; does the first convert become the leader when the leader dies? No clue.
Would be broken. When the leader dies what usually happens is the recruits play on as a mafia group, with or without kill depending on mod.
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Post Post #785 (isolation #146) » Wed May 21, 2008 12:52 pm

Post by armlx »

I don't know about that, Survivor claim is kinda sketchy to say the least. I'm thinking it might be a good ideal to vote the possible cult scum and just jailkeep the claimed mafia tonight.
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Post Post #790 (isolation #147) » Wed May 21, 2008 12:57 pm

Post by armlx »

Mokina wrote:
armlx wrote:I don't know about that, Survivor claim is kinda sketchy to say the least. I'm thinking it might be a good ideal to vote the possible cult scum and just jailkeep the claimed mafia tonight.
Also, he didn't mention a concrete "soul requirement" to win, which seems like the sort of thing that would be attached to a Survivor claim. I think it's
very
likely that certain Darkstalkers can upgrade their level using souls, thus moving them to BIH... but I don't believe his claim either.
Not even a matter of belief most of the time, Survivor claims are pretty much auto-lynches, as are most claimed neutrals.
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Post Post #800 (isolation #148) » Wed May 21, 2008 3:07 pm

Post by armlx »

Unvote, Vote GW


I've heard enough to know what to do here.
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Post Post #805 (isolation #149) » Wed May 21, 2008 4:38 pm

Post by armlx »

springlullaby wrote:Hold your horses, post incoming. DO NOT LYNCH ANYONE. I want to post what I know before anything happens.
Fair nuff.
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Post Post #811 (isolation #150) » Wed May 21, 2008 5:57 pm

Post by armlx »

I don't think its Monika vs. GW at all. Its just GW or, umm, ????
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Post Post #817 (isolation #151) » Thu May 22, 2008 1:46 am

Post by armlx »

L-2, just to keep track. If anyone has anything else to say, now would be good.
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Post Post #828 (isolation #152) » Thu May 22, 2008 5:43 am

Post by armlx »

springlullaby wrote: I'm Lilith, cultcop, I'm looking for cult leader Jedah.
Q-Bee isn't the cult leader, though it is probably a safe claim.
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Post Post #842 (isolation #153) » Mon May 26, 2008 9:08 am

Post by armlx »

Well, we know at least 1 recruit failed or the game would be over by now.

DR has yet to PM me anything about my investigation on SL.
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Post Post #847 (isolation #154) » Mon May 26, 2008 9:49 am

Post by armlx »

Xtoxm wrote:Yes, i'm essentially a pro-town vig at this point, and you blocked my kill. (And my RB).
Given a choice between a lynch and a vig kill, rather take the lynch.
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Post Post #849 (isolation #155) » Mon May 26, 2008 9:52 am

Post by armlx »

No, if you had mis-killed last night, the cult would have had to have missed 2 recruits to not have won. Same as a mislynch today, as quite frankly I doubt they did.
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Post Post #862 (isolation #156) » Mon May 26, 2008 7:37 pm

Post by armlx »

You are clear SL.
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Post Post #866 (isolation #157) » Mon May 26, 2008 7:55 pm

Post by armlx »

Vote Clausp


Probably a recruit going in for the game win.
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Post Post #869 (isolation #158) » Mon May 26, 2008 8:07 pm

Post by armlx »

Unvote, Vote SL


Thanks for pointing out the CL. I guess I'm the mafia cop.
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Post Post #871 (isolation #159) » Mon May 26, 2008 8:21 pm

Post by armlx »

Meh, I can't even win this one if we go to night off a mislynch.

GG, you got me. All of my recruits failed BTW. Disasters and what not, though there were infi unrecruitables. I could only recruit B-classes at first, which was maybe 1/4th of the game I think. Also, when I died all my recruits unconverted, though they didn't know that.
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Post Post #874 (isolation #160) » Mon May 26, 2008 8:37 pm

Post by armlx »

I'm in for that.
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Post Post #886 (isolation #161) » Tue May 27, 2008 6:21 am

Post by armlx »

Yeah, N1 DP failed, safe claimed cop result on him, N2 BBM was killed when I tried to recruit, and last night RBed. I guess I had an out in trying to play as if I was a recruit.
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Post Post #947 (isolation #162) » Tue May 27, 2008 5:14 pm

Post by armlx »

Unvote, Vote Armlx


Just make this quick. Go.... um... someone else?
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Post Post #971 (isolation #163) » Thu May 29, 2008 10:23 am

Post by armlx »

Both JOAT and Jailkeeper are very underestimated roles. I'm surprised a single kill actually went through though, what with 2 jailkeeps, 1 protective JOAT, a mafia RB, and an NK immune SK.
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